Ranking 2022 rookies based on long-term value

The age at which a player breaks into the Majors and becomes a star correlates heavily with his future value, so we’re leaning toward Rodríguez. In our long-term rookie rankings below, we also note each player’s seasonal age as of July 1, and it’s no coincidence that three of our top five rookies played this year at age 21.

We also factor in present-year performance, past track record and future projection. Position players are less volatile than pitches, so we take that into consideration as well.

Our list considers only graduated rookies who have exceeded of 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 45 days of active service time in the big leagues. Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson (No. 2 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list) and ...

Sly Cooper on Twitter: Jon Hamm’s Trea Turner pitch

pic.twitter.com/jprwdbBJ7J

— Sly Cooper (@SlyCooperBurner) November 7, 2022

If MLB’s postseason roulette is so unpredictable, how do Astros continue to beat the odds?

“It’s a really hard question to answer, but obviously our guys have continued to come through in those big spots, year in and year out,” Houston general manager James Click told the Post-Dispatch during a recent conversation. “So, while there is a level of unpredictability in the playoffs and I think we all understand that this is a game of inches — talent still plays in the playoffs. Nobody is suggesting that it’s all luck. It’s probably a little bit more of a question of luck and skill than the regular season, but three is still plenty of room for skill to play up.”

Here are the 2022 finalists for MVP, Cy Young, ROY and MOY

AL MVP Award

Yordan Alvarez, DH/LF, Astros

Alvarez was one of the elite hitters in the American League again this season. The Astros’ lefty slugger batted .306 with 37 home runs and 97 RBIs, and he and Aaron Judge were the only hitters to post an OPS over 1.000. Alvarez’s 1.019 OPS and 187 OPS+ (league average is 100) were both second best in the Majors, behind only Judge. He also added some memorable home runs in the postseason for the World Series champs.

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

Judge’s historic season makes him the MVP favorite. He hit 62 home runs to surpass Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 and set a new American League home run record. Judge also nearly won a Triple Crown, leading the AL with 131 RBIs and finishing second ...

Rule 5 Draft prospects protected on 40-man rosters

Who won’t be added?

Nationals, A’s, Pirates have best odds in MLB draft lottery

As soon as general managers started arriving in Las Vegas for their annual meetings, Major League Baseball set some odds—for its first amateur draft lottery.

MLB said Monday the lottery will take place on Dec. 6 at the winter meetings in San Diego, determining the top six picks next summer.

Under the agreement in March that ended the 99-day lockout, the lottery includes teams that failed to reach the postseason and didn’t forfeit their first-round pick, such as for signing a qualified free agent.

Washington, Oakland and Pittsburgh, which each lost 100 or more games, have the best odds of getting the top pick at 16.5%. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both went 62-100 but the Pirates were slotted third because they had a worse record that the ...

Triple-A award winners and All-Stars

International League
Most Valuable Player: Jonathan Aranda, Durham (TB)
Aranda earned league MVP honors as a member of Double-A Montgomery last year, and he followed that up with a repeat performance in Triple-A. The 24-year-old hit .318 and led the International League in OPS (.915) while setting career highs in games played (104), homers (18), RBIs (85), doubles (26) and walks (45). He made his MLB debut on June 24.

Pitcher of the Year: Greg Weissert, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (NYY)
Weissert followed a career year with an almost identical 2022 season. The right-hander was straight-up dominant out of the RailRiders bullpen, allowing just three homers and nine earned runs across 48 innings, good for a 1.69 ERA. The 27-year-old whiffed 70 ...

2023 CONTEMPORARY BASEBALL ERA BALLOT

Eight former big league players comprise the Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot to be reviewed and voted upon Dec. 4 at the Baseball Winter Meetings.

Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling are the candidates the Contemporary Baseball Era Players Committee will consider for Hall of Fame election for the Class of 2023. All candidates are living.

What’s next for Mets after wisely signing Edwin Diaz to massive deal?

I want this writer in my fantasy league!!!

Most are praising the Mets’ front office and owner Steve Cohen for their quick, decisive move on Diaz, and I’m part of that chorus.

Yes, there’s a risk when it comes to giving a shade over $20 million annually to a reliever for five years.

But the Mets didn’t give that deal to someone who appears to be in danger of a regression. They gave it to a 28-year-old (Diaz will turn 29 in March) who is at the height of his powers and is coming off one of the most dominant seasons any reliever has ever had.

And Diaz’s dominance in 2022 (and, really, since 2020) is backed up as real by the “regular” stats and pretty much any advanced stat you can find. He is for real.

...Read More...

jimfurtado Posted: November 07, 2022 at 09:42 AM | 7 comment(s)
  Beats: mets

2023 Top 50 Free Agents | FanGraphs Baseball

A full season of deGrom starts? Will that really be a thing again?

Ben’s Take
What would teams pay for a guaranteed full season of deGrom starts? No one will say, obviously, but my estimation is that several playoff locks would pay an astronomical sum. There’s no better bet to deliver a Cy Young caliber season, and his talent is magnified in the postseason; if you’re a team on the cusp of getting a playoff bye, a healthy deGrom is legitimately the best player in baseball you could add. Two deGrom starts in a Division Series if necessary? That’s a dream scenario for any contender.

Of course, you can’t guarantee health for deGrom, and that’s kind of the point. Two straight years of scary-sounding injuries and limited availability ...

Cubs Matt Mervis named Fall Stars Game MVP

Watching the game now. Do we really need so many in-game interviews? For a lot of people, it’s their first chance to see a lot of these players. Ignoring the action and the chance to promote players seems like a poor choice.

LIDOM on Twitter: QUE-PA-LO ¡HOMERUN de Jerar Encarnación

Baseball is such a tough sport that you have to enjoy the wins when you can. This is wonderful!

QUE-PA-LO

jimfurtado Posted: November 07, 2022 at 07:53 AM | 0 comment(s)
  Beats: dominican baseball, jeerer encarnacion

10 MLB offseason storylines to watch 

Shohei on the move?
There are plenty of questions hovering around the Angels this offseason, starting with the potential sale of the club. But the biggest is the status of Shohei Ohtani, who is slated to become a free agent a year from now after agreeing to a one-year, $30 million deal for 2023 to avoid arbitration. If the Angels don’t think they can sign Ohtani to an extension or come to terms on a new deal after he becomes a free agent, then trading him this winter should be one of the considerations given how much he would potentially bring back.

Law: The Mets fail to learn from history. Will the Edwin Díaz deal doom them to repeat it? - The Athletic

This century, there have been, by my count, 20 contracts of four or five years handed to free-agent relievers, not counting the new deal for Díaz. Jansen, Chapman and B.J. Ryan received five-year deals, and the remainder were all for four years. One of the deals, Raisel Iglesias’, is still underway with 1.6 WAR in year one — although most of that came after the team that signed him, the Angels, dumped him and the contract on Atlanta midway through year one. Jansen’s and Chapman’s immediately followed the ends of those five-year periods I mentioned above.

Of the other 19, nine of them resulted in 4 WAR or less from the pitcher over the course of the deal, regardless of teams. That includes Brett Cecil (minus-0.5), Justin Speier ...

Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten backs Andrew Friedman, Dave Roberts - Los Angeles Times

The Dodgers don’t need to change; their fans need to chill out.

Kasten emphasized that the team would spend whatever it deemed necessary to improve but noted that this offseason could be a little different.

“If money is what is needed, we’ll certainly do that, as we’ve shown time and time again,” he said. “[But] if we think we have kids who need time to play up here, I’m sure we’ll do that as well.”
...
He strongly supported the two most visible — and criticized — people in that championship effort, manager Dave Roberts and baseball president Andrew Friedman.

“Everyone who is a sports fans think they could a) run a bar and b,) be a manager, and it’s just not true,” he said. “It’s hard, man, it is hard. Every ...

131 Players Become XX(B) Free Agents

List of new free agents.

2022 World Series- How Dusty Baker’s Astros beat the Phillies

The Astros and Chicago Cubs were in agreement on a trade to send star catcher Willson Contreras to the Astros for starter Jose Urquidy, four sources familiar with the deal told ESPN. The straight-up trade was agreed upon, pending owner approval. That approval never came.

During the 2022 season, as the Astros churned toward a regular-season win total one shy of their franchise record, relationships outside the clubhouse soured, according to sources. Owner Jim Crane, who paid a record $5 million fine levied by commissioner Rob Manfred for the cheating scandal, took a more hands-on role in baseball operations. New voices, such as Astros Hall of Fame first baseman Jeff Bagwell, grew in prominence. And when Click tried to execute the trade for ...

Hot Stove OMNICHATTER 2022

Dynasty! Love ‘em or loathe ‘em, Astros are an all-time team | ESPN

That part was novel, but much else looked familiar. For the third time in four seasons, the Major League Baseball season has ended in Houston. The Astros’ two titles have come in a six-season span, with the first the infamous championship of 2017. In each season between that title and this one, the Astros advanced to at least the ALCS, pushing their streak of appearances in that round to an amazing six.

Given these simple facts, one obvious question springs to mind: Are we watching baseball’s newest dynasty?

Sad Yankees media session shows need for free-agent urgency

Heyman often makes me chuckle on MLB Now. He often breaks signings. His baseball analysis should never be implemented.

Bomb threats and prank calls: ‘All hell broke loose’ for Philadelphia restaurants in World Series food fiasco

It’s not often that the citizens of Philly are the victims of pro sports-related abuse, rather than the perps.

Mike’s BBQ and Angelo’s Pizza, two popular South Philly businesses that often provide food to the city’s professional teams, even engaged in social media posts joking about not accommodating the opposing team.

Danny DiGiampietro, the owner of Angelo’s Pizzeria on 9th Street, told The Post that Houston fans have been prank-calling his eatery nonstop — with some hecklers even tracking down his license plate and his home address to share online.

On Tuesday, an individual claiming to be a cousin of an Angelo’s staffer tweeted that Astros fans “threatening to bomb his store.” They explained the pizzeria closed at 7 ...

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

Chris Bassitt (Mets)
Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
Willson Contreras (Cubs)
Jacob deGrom (Mets)
Edwin Díaz (Mets)
Aaron Judge (Yankees)
Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
Carlos Rodón (Giants)
Dansby Swanson (Braves)
Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, ...

The sacrifice bunt and intentional walk are vanishing from baseball

Even before 2022, the use of the sacrifice had begun to decline. There are, I think, a couple of reasons:

Managers had discovered that giving up an out wasn’t really increasing run expectancy, and
Pitchers were getting fewer plate appearances, since starters were not going as deep into games. In 2010, the first year I have in that chart, MLB pitchers had 6,002 PA. In 2021, the last year pitchers batted, they had just 4,829, a decline of about 20 percent.
Pitchers accounted for 421 of the 766 sacrifices in 2021, leaving 345 for position players. That means position player sacrifices actually went up a bit in 2022, but I will predict now that this figure will continue to drop.

Why?

Because about half the teams have essentially stopped ...

Heyman: Ranking top 30 free agents in Major League baseball

1. Aaron Judge: The Yankees are feeling more confident this week. One reason I’d guess he will stay is that he shows great loyalty sticking with his longtime, very small-time agent. Teams: Yankees, Giants, Dodgers. Expert’s prediction: $330M, 9 years.

2. Jacob deGrom: Zack Wheeler told The Post’s Mike Puma deGrom likes being a Met. Teams: Rangers, Mets, Dodgers. Expert: $125M, 3 years.

3. Carlos Correa: Great defense, postseason pedigree and still 28, but interest last winter was disappointing. Teams: Dodgers, Giants, Braves, Twins, Cubs, Phillies. Expert: $275M, 9 years.

4. Trea Turner: Some think he prefers to go east, but he has said he liked Los Angeles and will consider all. Folks love him. Teams: Dodgers, Phillies, ...

NYT: These Guys Are Nasty’: Houston Thrives With Unexpected Stars [$]

Javier switched from outfielder to pitcher at 16, the age when many prospects from the Dominican Republic turn pro. He signed just before his 18th birthday for $10,000, the same bonus the Astros had given Framber Valdez, a Dominican left-hander, in 2015. The team gave a $100,000 bonus that year to José Urquidy, a right-hander from Mexico, and $20,000 in 2017 to Luis Garcia, a right-hander from Venezuela.

Add it all up and the Astros spent $140,000 to sign four pitchers from Latin America who combined to make 112 starts this season. None of the four were ever listed among the top 100 prospects by MLB.com.

“When I got here, I only knew what I’d read, that the system is a little empty,” said reliever Ryne Stanek, who signed with ...

Javier, bullpen combine on no-hitter as Astros tie Series

Looking forward to hearing all the hot takes tomorrow about the Astros having momentum.

Earl Weaver had it right.

What Moneyball-for-Everything Has Done to American Culture

Subscription maybe required but you get a number of free articles per month:

“The analytics revolution, which began with the movement known as Moneyball, led to a series of offensive and defensive adjustments that were, let’s say, catastrophically successful. Seeking strikeouts, managers increased the number of pitchers per game and pushed up the average velocity and spin rate per pitcher. Hitters responded by increasing the launch angles of their swings, raising the odds of a home run, but making strikeouts more likely as well. These decisions were all legal, and more important, they were all correct from an analytical and strategic standpoint.”

“As the analytics revolution in music grew, radio playlists became more repetitive, and by ...

Lance McCullers Jr. disputes he was tipping pitches as Phils mash 5 HRs

McCullers denied that pitch-tipping was at fault.

“This has nothing to do with tipping,” he said, dismissing speculation that began with Harper getting in Bohm’s ear moments before he hit the first McCullers pitch he saw for a home run.

The Astros’ co-pitching coach, Joshua Miller, echoed similar thoughts.

“We didn’t identify anything specific today,” Miller said. “It’s something that we always monitor and look into.”

But McCullers nonetheless approached this outing with a very predictable trait: Through his first two postseason starts, he had thrown only one fastball to opposing left-handed hitters. Lefties were basically able to narrow their selection to either McCullers’ curveball or breaking ball, the two pitches he throws most ...

Passan: How velocity is ruling this postseason—and who is bringing the most heat in this World Series [$]

Sub required.

Welcome to Major League Baseball, 2022 style, where if you don’t throw hard, you probably don’t throw much at all. Gone with few exceptions are the nibblers and soft-tossers, relics of a time when only the finest fastballs kissed 90 mph, replaced by live arms that reliably launch bolts. Back in 2008, the first year MLB tracked all pitch data, pitchers threw three fastballs of 100 mph or greater in the playoffs. This year, there have already been 164. And with Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park postponed because of rain in Philadelphia, the teams’ rested bullpens will only add to the list.

It’s not just the top-end arms or elite relievers. The average starter is throwing 94.9 mph this October. Relievers, even generally anonymous ...

Sources: White Sox to hire Royals’ Pedro Grifol as manager

Pedro Grifol is expected to be the next manager of the Chicago White Sox, an announcement that could come later this week, according to multiple sources.

Grifol, 52, has been on the staff of the Kansas City Royals since 2013, most recently as the bench coach. The Royals interviewed him recently for their managerial opening, but hired Tampa Bay Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro to fill that spot.

Grifol was born and raised in Miami, and played collegiately at Florida State University before nine seasons in the minors, reaching Triple-A.