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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
2006 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
Name P AVG OBP SPC G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Glaus 3b .265 .368 .539 115 419 71 111 23 1 30 87 66 109 4 2
Overbay* 1b .303 .390 .476 154 531 81 161 42 1 16 82 77 108 1 0
Catalanotto* lf .298 .363 .441 120 399 54 119 28 4 7 53 33 52 1 2
Wells cf .280 .333 .490 155 625 88 175 35 3 30 102 49 85 7 2
Hillenbrand 1b .287 .334 .435 150 582 81 167 34 2 16 79 26 76 4 1
Barker* 1b .253 .323 .440 134 482 63 122 29 2 19 74 48 127 2 1
Hinske* 3b .254 .334 .419 148 511 78 130 32 2 16 69 57 118 9 4
Hill ss .273 .340 .397 136 479 71 131 31 2 8 55 41 56 4 1
Phillips c .267 .331 .405 130 420 48 112 25 0 11 60 35 52 0 1
Quiroz c .236 .311 .438 79 258 37 61 16 0 12 39 25 58 1 0
Johnson rf .273 .331 .397 136 436 61 119 22 4 8 54 25 85 4 4
Zaun# c .246 .349 .364 122 390 51 96 17 1 9 48 62 67 1 2
Rios rf .277 .326 .404 148 530 76 147 28 6 9 63 35 103 13 7
Cosby 3b .273 .313 .417 119 422 48 115 31 0 10 51 24 69 1 2
Roberts 3b .237 .323 .401 127 456 68 108 20 2 17 58 53 115 4 2
Adams* ss .260 .330 .380 141 511 73 133 29 4 8 59 51 62 9 3
Griffin* lf .234 .305 .428 134 479 69 112 22 1 23 74 47 140 1 1
Hattig# 3b .238 .315 .397 93 315 39 75 18 1 10 35 34 77 3 3
Lind* 1b .261 .311 .387 132 475 66 124 34 1 8 55 32 72 1 1
Cannon* 1b .238 .284 .435 123 416 55 99 24 2 18 61 25 93 0 1
Figueroa# 2b .273 .317 .365 116 406 51 111 23 1 4 40 25 28 3 4
Menechino 2b .226 .336 .340 81 235 32 53 10 1 5 25 35 52 0 2
Davenport* lf .248 .294 .396 103 379 42 94 27 1 9 46 25 65 1 2
Negron* cf .245 .288 .359 116 440 57 108 19 2 9 44 26 91 10 6
Nelson# lf .239 .294 .344 135 515 62 123 22 1 10 54 38 53 7 5
Matos 3b .251 .287 .354 117 418 46 105 23 1 6 40 16 57 2 3
DePastino c .242 .293 .330 71 227 23 55 11 0 3 22 16 47 0 0
McDonald 2b .244 .292 .314 73 172 17 42 7 1 1 14 10 24 3 2
Tablado 3b .212 .256 .336 96 339 39 72 16 1 8 36 18 111 3 1
Santos ss .217 .256 .318 121 434 52 94 14 3 8 45 22 103 2 2
Name W L ERA G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Ryan* 6 1 2.80 73 0 74.0 52 23 4 29 105
Halladay 14 6 3.16 25 25 185.0 173 65 17 28 141
Burnett 13 7 3.59 28 28 183.0 163 73 14 61 154
Speier 4 2 3.71 66 0 68.0 61 28 10 20 56
Frasor 5 3 3.78 63 0 69.0 62 29 5 30 56
Schoeneweis* 4 3 4.05 69 0 60.0 58 27 4 24 44
Towers 12 11 4.15 32 30 193.0 214 89 26 30 102
Lundberg 6 6 4.34 53 2 83.0 86 40 10 23 59
Chacin* 11 11 4.43 32 32 189.0 193 93 22 71 121
Duff 4 5 4.59 38 0 51.0 47 26 5 26 44
Chulk 2 2 4.68 62 0 75.0 75 39 10 31 51
Ramirez 10 11 4.69 27 27 167.0 188 87 25 33 100
Lilly* 10 12 4.69 29 29 165.0 161 86 25 70 136
Walker 5 5 4.73 38 6 78.0 83 41 12 33 39
Marcum 8 9 4.91 30 26 165.0 184 90 34 28 118
Banks 9 11 4.94 28 27 164.0 187 90 34 24 110
Miller 3 3 5.03 25 11 77.0 81 43 13 31 62
League 4 6 5.11 41 10 104.0 111 59 13 47 62
Perkins 5 7 5.12 23 21 123.0 135 70 15 51 75
Wolfe 3 5 5.18 36 3 66.0 73 38 9 26 32
Rosario 3 5 5.24 27 17 103.0 110 60 20 37 70
Downs* 7 10 5.39 32 26 157.0 181 94 31 45 88
McGowan 2 4 5.55 21 16 94.0 104 58 19 31 69
Arnold 2 5 6.00 32 12 99.0 110 66 22 45 66
Houston 3 5 6.34 34 5 71.0 72 50 16 49 67
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2006.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 10, 2006 at 01:03 AM | 42 comment(s)
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1. BoSox Rule Posted: January 10, 2006 at 01:29 AM (#1813513)I am a little surprised with the low OPS projection for Adams. He has a career 365OBP in the minors and hit pretty well in a small sample size in '04. And has always had a very solid BB/K ratio. All of this combined with a much better Jays lineup in '06. I project him out to 274/358/396 with about 80 runs and 65 RBI.
All the "So-and-so isn't durable because his bones break when he gets hit by a ball" is really starting to get old. How many players have gotten tagged with this nonsense the past couple years?
This argument is all well and good, but dont forget that the line drive that hit Halladay in early July was supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks, meanwhile he never made it back to the mound in '05. Couple that with him breaking down in '04 and that adds up to a misconception about Halladay being one of the most durable pitchers in the league.
Well, the Jays undershot their Pythag by 8 wins in 05, so that means they will overshoot it by 8 wins in 06...right? Right?
89 win pythag just screams "midseason acquisition of a RF who can hit better than Rios".
As for Halladay's durability, he's an interesting case, I think. He's very good at simulating durability, because he throws so many strikes that his pitch counts stay low. There's a lesson in there.
I'm shocked they haven't traded for Craig Wilson yet... they have to have something shiny to offer Littlefield that won't downgrade the rest of the lineup OR give up the farm.
J.D. Drew was hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in both 2001 and 2005. A number of folks crowed about those injuries.
Of course, J.D. has a slightly more extensive injury history than most.
Fixed
overbay's projection seems a bit optimistic--everyone in the media tried to liken him to john olerud...the projection pretty closely matches olerud's career numbers. He might do it, given that he's 29, but i don't like his chances of managing anything past that, given that he's 29.
which brings up another question--at what age is a player's performance easiest/hardest to predict? young and old players seem more variable this way--they can surprise you a lot...
Glaus looks just about right.
Not buying. It was a freaking broken leg; they were overly optimistic to think that he'd be back in '05. I think Halladay's as good a bet as anybody to win the Cy Young in '06.
Burnett was an extreme groundball pitcher last year. It remains to be seen whether this was a one-year fluke.
A number of Adams's errors were of the "lack of concentration" variety - more of less routine plays where he appeared to go into a walkabout. That's a fixable problem; whether the Jays have the right people in place to fix it is another issue.
-- MWE
Yeah, is this something that the former shortstop can come back from? Is it a matter of his injury preventing him from training the same way as before and now he can? Or is he permenantly 'disabled' now?
It will help in evaluating the Toronto projected record to know that I did regress Towers's ERA to 4.70, Burnett's to 4.20, and Halladay's to 3.60. Offensive rate-stats, I left alone, and in figuring playing time had Hinske as the odd man out in the 3b-1b-dh shuffle and Catalanotto and Reed sharing time in LF, with Wells and Rios full-timers, for the most part.
I dont think its the best he could do. Rather just a reasonable projection for '06. I tend to think his BA will improve when he hits his peak.
Not buying. It was a freaking broken leg; they were overly optimistic to think that he'd be back in '05. I think Halladay's as good a bet as anybody to win the Cy Young in '06
Optimistic or not the timetable was set, and he still didnt return from it two months after his targeted date. He's a great pitcher no doubt and a very good bet to win the Cy. I'm just making the point that he probably wont be pitching 260+ innings per season the next few years.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5235682
(However. Hinske in the outfield sounds to me like a recipe for disaster.)
Perhaps Hill would play a better short and Adams can handle second.
I really don't understand trading Koskie. The could have kept his glove at third, DH'd Glaus, and traded Hillenbrand, or kept him as a backup and released Hinske (they more or less released Koskie).
It probably comes down to Glaus wanting to play 3rd base as a condition of accepting the trade, and they made the decision that the offensive boost from Glaus outweighs the defensive hit.
I don't know why Perry thinks Hillenbrand can give them similar production to Glaus. They aren't anywhere close on offense. Hillenbrand ain't much aon defense either. And Glaus is actually the younger of the 2.
If Glaus can play closer to 140-150 games, ZIPS seems to think the Jays could have the AL home run champ on their team. That's pretty cool. Still, it irks me that J.P. took the one legitamitely great hitter he's ever had in his lineup for granted. When you consider Glaus is costing them $10.5M/yr, how is Delgado at $13 M/year not an incredible bargain--especially if it means you keep Hudson? This isn't hindsight. I hated watching Carlos leave.
Overbay and Glaus are good players, guys who can clearly contribute to winning teams, but unless Paul Gottfried found some kind of time machine in the basement of the Rogers Centre and sends Vernon Wells back to 2003 to retrieve his magic amulet, they're also the team's two best hitters. With dead weight like Rios and Adams in the lineup, I don't think that's enough. When you consider the Jays gave up Koskie, Hudson, Bautista, Gross, Bush, Jackson, and $8 M (!!!) for Glaus, Overbay, Santos, and Wolf it's a little depressing. That's WAAYYYY too much talent to lose in exchange for players who aren't the kind of slam-dunk All Stars it'll take to compete with Boston and New York. I realise Bowden's too much of an idiot to realise that Toronto could have offered more value than Texas for Wilkerson, but shouldn't we have gotten Dunn? Or J.D. Drew? Or why couldn't Toronto get Bradley? Or, hell, Jim Thome?
Of all the players Toronto traded away, I'm still amazed the Jays gave up on Bush so quickly. Worst case scenario would have been to move him back to relief, a role he's proven he can handle back in his days as a dominant college closer (remember how much everyone loves those these days?).
As the offseason has progressed, it's clear the Jays were smart in their free agent signings to get the two guys they wanted at the price they paid. (You're telling me you'd rather have Millwood at $60M?) But J.P.'s trades have reaked of desperation, too eager to undo past mistakes. I hope this Bengie Molina talk is nonsense, and Mike Piazza is a possibility as fulltime DH and backup C. That would make me all warm and fuzzy. And, Mike, gay marriage is legal in Canada.
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