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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Friday, January 12, 20072007 ZiPS Projections and Disk for Diamond Mind 9, Build 1The spreadsheet for the entirety of projections made to date can be found right here. The DMB projection disk made using the 2007 ZiPS Projections can be found right right here. Since this question comes up every year, to use the ZiPS projection disk with DMB 9, create a new empty database, select “Restore” and then select the zip file. What’s been done so far? - Projection for every player I’ve done to date. - On the DMB disk, I’ve made players on the 40-man roster active and players not on the 40-man roster inactive. While theoretically, this would enable one to actually do a quick 2007 sim, the results will be really goofy because I simply let DMB pick lineups and rotations and have not entered real ones yet. DMB sometimes does some really wacky things and some things that won’t happen, like Ryan Theriot starting at 2B over DeRosa, moving Dunn back and forth between a 1B/LF platoon of Votto/Denorfia, benching Griffey Jr., and refusing to play Horacio Ramirez. Also, this is the best place to request new projections so that I don’t have to comb over each individual team projection post. All reasonable requests will be honored - for example, I’m not willing to attempt to project Max Scherzer and I have no idea how to even start projecting a Cuban defector. I will however, project Japanese players to a neutral park, so long as the request isn’t “Dan, you could project all of NPB?” I will also consider disputes on DMB ratings and will make adjustments if I find the argument compelling. “Jeter, FR rating? You suck!” is not an example of one such. |
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1. MSI Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:30 PM (#2279442)I would consider that a sign of DMB's advanced intelligence as a baseball sim.
I just spent the last hour playing with this.
Could you post the average RC27 for each position in each league? That would be great.
Thanks in advance.
Anthony in Oregon
If you're taking requests, can I get a Michael Nakamura projection? He was my favourite AAAA reliever when he was with the Jays, and I was stunned when I learned that he was the closer for the Nippon Ham Fighters and was good enough to finish pretty high up in the MVP voting.
I wish I could get the 2007- anyone know if that's in the cyber-ether?
Do the blank team fellows have neutral-park projections or last-team projections?
Blank guys are last-team projections.
Shhh. I told her he was just resting.
Liriano from MIN was the only player adjusted and he was removed
SD 3.76
LAA 3.77
NYN 4.00
STL 4.03
DET 4.04
TOR 4.05
CHN 4.07
OAK 4.09
HOU 4.11
LAD 4.12
CLE 4.13
MIL 4.13
NYA 4.16
BOS 4.17
PIT 4.19
MIN 4.23
FLA 4.24
...
TEX 4.55
COL 4.64
CHA 4.67
KC 4.81
--------------------------------------------
COL 6.41
NYA 6.34
BOS 6.22
ATL 5.96
CLE 5.92
PHI 5.85
CHN 5.72
STL 5.68
NYN 5.63
ARI 5.61
CHA 5.55
TEX 5.53
DET 5.50
TOR 5.48
LAD 5.45
...
WAS 5.20
TB 5.15
KC 5.02
LAA 5.02
SEA 5.00
PIT 4.93
Extremely flawed method
ie Napoli counts as much as Guerrerro
------------------------------------
Jose Tabata NYA
Travis Snider Tor
Bill Rowell Bal
Trevor Crowe Cle
Dexter Fowler Col
Joe Koshansky Col
Brandon Jones Atl
Eric Campbell Atl
Van Pope Atl
Drew Stubbs Cin
Bryan Anderson SLN
Anderson Gomes ChA
Chris Carter ChA
Cedric Hunter SDN
Matt Tuiasosopo Sea
Tyler Colvin CHN
Hank Conger LAA
Chris Nelson Col
Chris Parmelee Min
John Mayberry Tex
Justin Towles Hou
Jeff Bianchi KCA
Will Venable SD
Chris Marrero Was
C.J. Henry NYA
I really don't want to see that a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- a nice prospect, but still a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- is projected to out-hit the starting major league catcher.
Its been done. SG took the CHONE file, loaded it to Diamond Mind, and ran a bunch of sims. Its on the Replacement Level Yankee blog.
I really don't want to see that a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- a nice prospect, but still a 20-yo A-ball catcher -- is projected to out-hit the starting major league catcher.
Nor do I want to see the 20 year old shortstop with all of 150 pro at bats would out hit the starting major league shortstop.
Nice work Dan.
I normally note this (but didn't above), but I try to avoid projecting players with less than 1 full professional season, unless there's a chance they'll get all the way to the majors in the upcoming season, like Weeks and Andrew Miller right after their drafts. So, I can do guys like Tabata and Tuiasosopo, but I really can't do a projection with any accuracy for someone like Billy Rowell, who has less than 200 pro at-bats and only 11 games above rookie ball.
180/237/230
3B - FR, 2B - PR, SS - PR
Even dumbass Cam Bonifay didn't overpromote his kid to the extent that Schuerholz does.
Any chance you have the ZiPS projections with the MLB player id's for each player? Great work. Thanks!
Thanks so much for ZIPS. Every year I have a few "Steals of the Draft" due to your projections. The only real work I have to do is separate the NL players from AL players as my league is an NL only.
Is anyone doing an analysis as to how your projections compare to Shandler's and PECOTA over at Baseball Prospectus? I have seen one in the past that was general. It would be useful to see a comparison that actually shows how many players you were relatively close to projecting correctly. Would OPS as a measure be the best for hitters and ERA for pitchers?
I used ERA and OPS simply because those are the two measures I could in everyone's projections.
Justin Jones WAS
Yohan Pino MIN
Also, 5th starter in Philly - Eaton or Moyer? I just moved it to Eaton just to see...
Thanks again Dan - you rock...!!
He may be 8th or 9th in line for the 5th starter job for the White Sox, but his strong season in Charlotte combined with the poor showing of other 5th starter candidates makes me think that ZiPS might project him to be the Sox 5th best starter next year.
Great stuff! Thanks a ton.
You have Miguel Cabrera (FLA) listed as a LF. Do you expect him to move from 3b?
rc = runs created
rc27 = runs created per 27 outs
Cabrera's listed as a LF because it's a mistake. When I go year-to-year on the DMB disks, I import the previous season so that I don't have to re-do the biographical data and with 2000 players, there are always some that I miss the position change.
In this case, I imported the 2006 Cabrera who I had listed as a LF because when I made his projection in October 2005, he had played more leftfield than 3B and the Marlins still hadn't committed to moving him back to 3rd.
I would be very surprised if Cabrera is the only mistake left on this front.
P Tyler Lumsden KC
P Brad Knox OAK
1B Nate Gold TEX
C Matt Tupman KC
Thanks!
Cam's kid was actually a pretty good hitter, even made an AS team on his way up. Too bad his knees were shot before he even started...
Thanks!!!
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