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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, October 30, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Todd Helton* 1b 33 .315 .432 .517 146 518 87 163 42 3 19 81 105 67 2 1
Matt Holliday lf 27 .324 .383 .570 144 544 96 176 40 5 28 96 43 88 9 4
Garrett Atkins 3b 27 .317 .389 .521 146 543 96 172 43 1 22 101 61 63 1 1
Brad Hawpe* rf 28 .283 .368 .493 138 446 59 126 26 4 20 73 61 108 3 3
Jeff Baker rf 26 .291 .342 .504 130 474 55 138 30 4 21 89 35 104 6 1
Chris Iannetta c 24 .269 .358 .465 103 342 64 92 21 2 14 45 44 60 1 1
Ryan Spilborghs lf 27 .292 .352 .441 136 456 78 133 33 4 9 57 43 85 10 4
Troy Tulowitzki ss 22 .282 .351 .429 119 478 76 135 32 1 12 52 46 67 6 3
Carlos Rivera* 1b 29 .290 .326 .439 122 403 45 117 25 1 11 55 18 54 2 2
Seth Smith* rf 24 .273 .322 .420 134 528 63 144 41 2 11 55 36 75 3 3
Cory Sullivan* cf 27 .286 .338 .405 133 440 63 126 26 7 4 39 33 84 10 6
Kaz Matsui# 2b 31 .277 .330 .385 103 361 61 100 20 2 5 39 27 64 10 2
Josh Wilson ss 26 .265 .324 .401 126 449 69 119 24 2 11 47 38 91 11 6
Jeff Salazar* cf 26 .249 .335 .382 107 398 63 99 20 3 9 40 49 79 10 6
Luis A. Gonzalez 2b 28 .274 .316 .402 107 321 35 88 18 1 7 33 15 51 2 3
Ian Stewart* 3b 22 .248 .314 .407 121 460 70 114 34 3 11 57 39 87 2 4
Jamey Carroll 2b 33 .267 .348 .345 123 374 54 100 17 3 2 27 45 57 6 7
Vinny Castilla 3b 39 .239 .297 .398 127 440 43 105 29 1 13 70 32 87 1 1
Choo Freeman cf 27 .257 .311 .381 119 339 48 87 13 4 7 40 25 79 5 4
Yorvit Torrealba c 28 .240 .297 .409 73 225 26 54 16 2 6 34 16 47 2 2
Jason Smith* ss 29 .248 .294 .412 91 250 29 62 11 3 8 30 15 64 5 3
Omar Quintanilla* ss 25 .261 .314 .358 104 371 57 97 20 2 4 28 26 55 3 2
Clint Barmes ss 28 .255 .296 .374 119 463 70 118 27 2 8 47 21 65 8 6
Alvin Colina c 25 .235 .284 .374 86 294 39 69 11 0 10 35 17 57 1 2
Matt Macri 2b 25 .222 .275 .338 80 275 27 61 12 1 6 27 18 57 2 2
Tommy Whiteman 3b 27 .230 .287 .307 97 309 31 71 12 0 4 30 23 75 3 3
Jayson Nix 2b 24 .230 .277 .311 116 421 48 97 19 0 5 28 24 63 8 4
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Clint Barmes
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .273 .324 .434 132 516 91 141 35 3 14 64 28 62 12 6
Mean .255 .296 .374 119 463 70 118 27 2 8 47 21 65 8 6
Pessimistic (15%) .236 .272 .333 76 297 39 70 15 1 4 25 11 45 4 5
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
ZiPS Website Pitching—2007 Colorado Rockies
Regular season
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Manuel Corpas 24 3.75 4 2 63 0 72.0 76 30 6 14 47
Brian Fuentes* 31 3.80 4 3 67 1 64.0 54 27 7 27 71
Aaron Cook 28 4.37 10 9 27 27 175.0 198 85 14 44 71
Byung-Hyun Kim 28 4.44 9 9 32 26 152.0 161 75 17 59 116
Jeff Francis* 26 4.48 13 12 32 32 191.0 194 95 24 65 134
Jason Jennings 28 4.60 10 10 29 29 188.0 197 96 19 78 123
Ray King* 33 4.60 3 3 73 0 47.0 51 24 4 20 26
Bret Prinz 30 4.85 1 2 34 0 39.0 39 21 6 18 35
Nate Field 31 4.94 3 3 50 0 51.0 54 28 9 18 47
Tom Martin* 37 4.96 1 1 59 0 49.0 54 27 6 22 32
Mike DeJean 36 5.03 4 5 60 0 68.0 72 38 6 33 57
David Cortes 33 5.17 2 2 52 0 54.0 60 31 9 17 35
Denny Bautista 26 5.25 6 8 26 24 132.0 139 77 16 82 102
Jose Mesa 41 5.32 3 4 69 0 66.0 74 39 9 30 35
Jeremy Affeldt* 28 5.42 4 6 50 7 83.0 89 50 10 48 53
Josh Fogg 30 5.49 7 12 32 30 169.0 204 103 26 60 81
Jose Acevedo 29 5.58 5 8 29 18 113.0 138 70 22 29 66
Franklin Morales* 21 5.70 6 11 25 23 139.0 146 88 19 97 108
Mike Venafro* 33 5.71 1 3 59 0 52.0 60 33 7 27 28
Ubaldo Jimenez 23 5.73 6 11 26 26 143.0 153 91 22 85 103
Miguel Asencio 26 5.79 5 10 37 16 112.0 135 72 21 42 61
Mike Esposito 25 5.81 6 12 27 27 155.0 190 100 31 47 84
Justin Hampson* 27 6.14 5 11 31 21 145.0 170 99 29 68 88
Zach Parker* 25 6.24 5 11 25 20 124.0 157 86 23 51 50
Juan Morillo 23 6.61 5 13 28 28 147.0 169 108 31 90 98
Ramon Ramirez 25 6.64 3 8 23 15 99.0 120 73 22 45 57
Chin-hui Tsao 26 6.92 1 2 15 4 26.0 31 20 9 8 22
Jim Miller 25 7.13 1 3 50 0 48.0 57 38 16 18 42
Steve Colyer* 28 7.85 1 4 52 0 55.0 62 48 13 53 43
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jeff Francis
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 4.48 13 12 32 32 191 194 95 24 65 134
Mean 3.81 16 11 34 34 208 197 88 21 63 149
Pessimistic (15%) 5.25 9 12 27 27 156 169 91 24 58 107
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 30, 2006 at 07:07 PM | 18 comment(s)
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1. John M. Perkins Posted: October 30, 2006 at 07:25 PM (#2228203)I'd like to see Tom Whiteman make the majors, even if only for a cup of coffee.
Too much has been made of the reduction in Coors Field park effects in 2006.
First, the numbers have been going down for awhile, it was just more noticeable this year because the Rockies had 3 starters who were just plain good this year. 3-year weighted average for Coors PF is 1.09 (a park factor of 118 or so) rather than the 1.07 (a park factor of 114 or so) this season. Homers have been down for awhile (2006 is actually a *higher* PF than 2005 for homers).
Secondly, Coors is still a really good hitters' park, just a really good hitters' park in the Traditional Baseball Sense rather than the Freaky Baseball Stars American Dreams On The Moon Sense.
Also, I was thinking what you stated, just wanted to see it in writing. Thanks, again.
Joe was in ECON 420 with me third year (a very tough class btw) and still had time to mash. Here's to another UVA alum making the bigs - Zimm needs company!
I hate to say it, but that projection for Helton looks optimistic to me.
I take it as a good sign that the Rockies are openly shopping for a centerfielder to replace Cory Sullivan, whose numbers are superficially respectable but who isn't really all that good. I take it as a bad sign that they're throwing around names like Jay Payton.
Too much has been made of the reduction in Coors Field park effects in 2006.
First, the numbers have been going down for awhile, it was just more noticeable this year because
because for slightly more than half the year Coors in fact seemed to be neutral:
There were 869 runs scored in 81 Colorado home games (10.7/g), 756 in Colorado's away games (9.3)
but...
From 9/1 on, there were 16.8 r/g in Colorado (14games) and 11.5 r/g (15 games) in road games
In August there were 10.7 r/g in 15 colorado homes games, 7.5 r/g in 13 colorado away games
What that means is that before 8/1/06 there were 9.1 r/g in colorado's home games and 9.2 r/g in Colorado Home games
In other words, after about 100 games Colordao appeared to be acting NEUTRAL
after 8/1/06 Colorado seemed to have reverted to all it's former offense inducing glory (raw park factor of 142 last 2 months)
I used to look at Colorado home road splits a lot, at least before about 2002/03 there was NEVER a 50 game stretch (approx 25 home/25 away) where Coors appeared neutral.
Now the fact that runs were scored at an equal rate in Colorado and on the road for the Rockies first 100 games this year could simply be a random outlier, it could be weather related, it could be due to a scheduling imbalance (playing low scoring teams at home more often early in the year- high scoring teams at home later on) it could also be humidor related*...
just a wild guess, after a lot of press comment in the renewed/amped up use of the humidor this year, MLB told Colorado to knock it out- just the perception that Colorado could be fooling around with the balls to gain an unfair perception is something MLB doesn't want- if so we might see a return of Coors to all its distorted glory next year...
*It could also be that around 8/06 alot of fantasy leaguers were starting to cast their Coors aversion aside and began picking up Rockies pitchers- just in time for Coors to start acting liek Coors agin :-)
Thanks for the insight! I didn't know there were such drastic early season/late season splits.
I don't think that is necessarily true. When the Mets played in Coors during the season, the announcers mentioned talking to the Rockies pitching coach, Bob Apodaca, and he said that the humidor simply makes the balls like they are everywhere else, meaning that they're properly weighed instead of excessively dried out. However, the air itself in Colorado is still thinner than most every place else so even though the balls are balanced now, the air itself should still make the balls travel further than in other places.
Now, I'm not a scientist, but this makes sense to me. I'd imagine that from this point on, Colorado will play as a very good hitters park, but not to the absurd levels of years past and it will also be shown that the neutral effect that was displayed for 2/3rds of the year was basically a fluke.
Jennings is a FA after 2007, (I assume Colorado exercised the option, have they?) I am guessing he will be quite the trade deadline commodity.
Per BA handbooks, he's above average. And, yes, he's one of the better minor league free agents on the market (IMO), though his offensive projections are Coors fueled.
Does making the World Series qualify them as contenders? And that was with Iannetta no where close to his projection, but I guess Tulowitzki made up the difference.
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