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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Carlos Guillen# ss 31 .311 .383 .507 136 485 89 151 34 5 17 76 56 74 12 6
Chris Shelton 1b 27 .283 .354 .479 144 501 78 142 27 4 21 71 52 119 1 1
Sean Casey* 1b 32 .296 .360 .422 130 486 65 144 28 0 11 74 41 58 1 0
Magglio Ordonez rf 33 .290 .341 .462 129 487 63 141 25 1 19 86 37 70 1 3
Josh Phelps 1b 29 .277 .335 .462 119 426 40 118 21 2 18 71 31 108 2 1
Curtis Granderson* cf 26 .267 .340 .438 152 562 86 150 27 6 19 70 61 158 12 6
Placido Polanco 2b 31 .307 .349 .405 120 476 69 146 21 1 8 53 24 28 3 2
Craig Monroe lf 30 .267 .314 .468 148 524 75 140 32 2 23 90 36 105 3 2
Marcus Thames lf 30 .242 .317 .474 105 331 48 80 18 1 19 53 35 100 1 2
Ivan Rodriguez c 35 .289 .319 .436 134 516 67 149 30 2 14 68 23 87 6 3
Ryan Ludwick rf 28 .249 .317 .452 118 425 44 106 24 1 20 59 37 126 1 3
Matt Stairs* 1b 39 .247 .334 .406 122 372 40 92 21 1 12 59 46 83 0 0
Brandon Inge 3b 30 .255 .320 .441 155 533 70 136 27 6 20 78 48 118 5 4
Cameron Maybin cf 20 .256 .322 .366 106 383 45 98 15 3 7 44 35 110 17 6
Omar Infante 2b 25 .253 .298 .411 115 384 51 97 24 5 9 43 24 71 8 3
Alexis Gomez* rf 28 .263 .304 .395 123 377 43 99 20 3 8 41 21 80 9 5
Dustan Mohr rf 31 .221 .312 .388 105 281 34 62 13 2 10 32 36 94 1 2
Mike Rabelo# c 27 .247 .304 .361 95 324 34 80 20 1 5 34 21 61 1 1
Brent Clevlen rf 23 .231 .299 .355 138 459 57 106 17 2 12 50 43 132 6 3
Vance Wilson c 34 .248 .297 .373 64 153 17 38 7 0 4 19 7 29 0 2
Tony Giarratano# ss 24 .239 .295 .317 86 322 34 77 18 2 1 20 24 62 10 4
Neifi Perez# ss 34 .254 .282 .340 134 429 40 109 20 1 5 45 16 48 3 2
Mike Hessman 3b 29 .179 .263 .366 116 385 39 69 12 0 20 51 41 121 2 2
Kody Kirkland 3b 24 .203 .256 .360 128 444 46 90 22 3 14 46 22 139 7 6
Kevin Hooper ss 30 .245 .283 .287 118 432 50 106 11 2 1 26 21 58 12 8
Maxim St. Pierre c 27 .222 .268 .297 87 293 29 65 13 0 3 29 16 44 1 1
Ramon Santiago# ss 27 .213 .267 .293 106 314 45 67 11 1 4 27 21 41 8 4
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Curtis Granderson
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .290 .372 .492 162 597 106 173 36 8 23 86 75 153 17 5
Mean .267 .340 .438 152 562 86 150 27 6 19 70 61 158 12 6
Pessimistic (15%) .249 .319 .387 118 434 58 108 18 3 12 47 43 128 5 5
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Joel Zumaya 22 3.39 5 3 56 0 77.0 57 29 6 39 94
Jeremy Bonderman 24 3.60 15 8 31 31 205.0 197 82 21 56 176
Todd Jones 39 3.73 6 3 66 0 70.0 69 29 4 18 42
Jamie Walker* 35 3.81 2 2 61 0 52.0 51 22 6 11 39
Justin Verlander 24 3.89 14 9 28 28 171.0 167 74 17 47 130
Fernando Rodney 30 3.90 5 4 55 0 60.0 49 26 6 28 58
Andrew Miller* 22 4.11 9 6 27 17 127.0 122 58 8 58 93
Kenny Rogers* 42 4.14 14 10 32 32 198.0 213 91 19 61 91
Nate Robertson* 29 4.21 13 11 32 32 199.0 204 93 25 64 135
Humberto Sanchez 24 4.42 7 7 19 18 108.0 105 53 10 51 85
Jair Jurrjens 21 4.53 7 7 25 25 147.0 161 74 16 38 77
Zach Miner 25 4.73 8 8 30 24 139.0 143 73 16 63 85
Roman Colon 27 4.73 3 4 43 6 78.0 83 41 10 25 52
Wil Ledezma* 26 4.78 6 7 29 18 111.0 116 59 14 42 73
Mike Maroth* 29 4.90 10 12 29 28 180.0 199 98 25 48 93
Craig Dingman 33 4.93 4 4 62 0 73.0 70 40 10 41 67
John Ennis 27 4.98 4 5 48 5 85.0 90 47 11 36 58
Eulogio de la Cruz 23 5.01 5 5 40 12 106.0 113 59 11 51 70
Jordan Tata 25 5.34 7 9 27 23 150.0 169 89 22 55 82
Jason Karnuth 31 5.35 4 5 62 0 69.0 77 41 7 31 30
Dallas Trahern 21 5.37 7 10 25 25 156.0 185 93 19 52 52
Jason Grilli 30 5.43 5 7 48 0 58.0 62 35 8 24 29
Troy Percival 37 5.45 2 3 41 0 38.0 37 23 7 11 20
Preston Larrison 26 5.53 5 7 26 16 109.0 129 67 15 40 40
Chad Durbin 29 5.77 6 10 28 25 156.0 181 100 31 50 86
Steve Green 29 5.97 5 8 37 11 95.0 101 63 12 64 61
Mark Woodyard 28 6.00 3 5 43 4 78.0 87 52 12 42 45
Mike Nannini 27 6.16 4 7 34 13 111.0 130 76 27 36 68
Kyle Sleeth 25 7.60 1 5 11 11 58.0 70 49 14 36 34
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Jeremy Bonderman
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.05 19 7 34 34 227 205 77 18 57 198
Mean 3.60 15 8 31 31 205 197 82 21 56 176
Pessimistic (15%) 4.20 11 9 26 26 167 171 78 20 53 140
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 01, 2006 at 01:00 PM | 30 comment(s)
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1. realteamcoach Posted: November 01, 2006 at 01:51 PM (#2229509)how many starters reach the majors a year after being drafted?
YOU KNOW WHAT WOULD BE COOL - A 2007 ZIPS JUST FOR FREE AGENTS!!!
Mark Prior did.
If Andrew Miller reaches the majors next year, IMO, it will likely be as a reliever. My expectation is that he will start the season in Erie, with a promotion to AAA a strong possibility sometime around late May if he dominates the EL.
-- MWE
I agree, especially considering that was his role this year. The Tiger bullpen has only Walker as true lefty RP (Ledezma and Maroth are really more starters). I am hoping that they want to use Miller like the Twins used Santana.
Think they might rethink trading Bonderman?
Ryan Ludwick would be a pretty nice half-platoon, wouldn't he?
I'd want to be sure that Sanchez is fully recovered from his injury - the Tigers kept downplaying it, but he kept not pitching after early August.
Jurrjens had a good year, true, but his HR rate spiked up after he moved to Erie, and he's more of a command/location guy than a miss-bats guy. My guess is that it will be at least 2008 before he's ready for major league hitters, and I would not be at all surprised to see him start at Erie again. I expect him to need adjustment time at every level.
-- MWE
Zero. Miller's one of those guys I include because people ##### if he's not there, a la Weeks a few years ago.
Hopefully Zumaya will be better than that. Gotta love Bonderman's numbers.
Too bad he's not that guy - lest people forget (and I'm surprised that you're one of 'em!), Shelton hit 299/360/510 in 2005 in more plate appearances than he got in 2006.
Shrug, they are a slight improvement. His WHIP drops from 1.30 this year to 1.23 in the projection, but his HR/9 goes from 0.76 this year to a projected 0.92 next year. Overall, a modest improvement, which I think can be expected from a 24 y.o. (or whatever he is) with his peripherals.
The K/9 numbers are expected regression, I'm sure.
Not to mention that he's hit .281/.348/.477 in 899 MLB PAs
and he'll be 27 next year.
Shelton reminds me of Juan Rivera, ZIPs had him projected to hit .286/.336/.460 and a lot of posters complained that was too high even though his career mark heading into 2006 was 283/.331/.452.
Yeah and sometimes it works the other way... Giambi the lil, Bobby Kielty ect... it's always a crap shoot whe projecting a part time guy into a full time player. (Not that I'm saying shelton is, but Rivera fit that bill).
Part of this is due to pinch-hitting at-bats that a lot of part-timers get, especially in the NL. While working on ZiPS a few years ago, I found that removing pinch-hitting at-bats from player projections actually increased the accuracy of the projections despite decreasing the amount of data you have to work with.
Which made me think of Hee Sop Choi... with a career mark of .357/.455 when not pinchhitting he could have been projected to be a viable 1B... of course his bat vaporized in '06...
It's not that much of a crapshoot- guys like Kielty and Jason MIchaels (to add another) should not be expected to succeed as FT players since much of their apparent success as PTers is partly driven by taking advantage of a platoon differential in their favor and also may arise fromm a sample size fluke- an MLB average player (like a Kielty) will have a 250-350 AB stretch sooner or later where they put up an OPS+ of 125 or higher- In Kielty's case there was never anything in his track record, MLB or minor league to suggest thate his 138 OPS+ in 2002 was anything other than a onetime fluke.
as to little Jeremy- I'm not sure he's an example of anything (don't do drugs maybe?)
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...
Juan Rivera on the other hand has had a pretty clear track record- he hits well when he plays regularly, he doesn't hit well when he plays sporadically. For various reasons he's tended to get more consistent PT in the second half of seasons- and in his career post ASB he's hit .320/.369/.507- he has virtually no platoon split- he hits righties as well as he hits lefties.
Personally I've been mystified at how 3 organizations have simply decided- contrary to all objective evidence- that he's not a regular player and have [mis]handled him- it'd be quite amusing if going into 2007 as a career .291 hitter coming off a .310/.362/.525 year, he gets benched in April or May the first time he goes ofer two games.
I'm not aware that he was ever a FT player, at his best he could almost hit well enough to overlook that he did everything else worse than the average beer league softballer- I think it would have been interesting if a team just made him their DH and started him 150 games- but it never happened...
Yeah, his body fell apart (wrist, torn labrum, career-ending back problems within a 10 months span) before he had a chance to succeed or fail as a full-time DH.
It all worked out for Sox fans in the end - if Giambi hadn't had such a poor start, David Ortiz' awful April makes him the odd man out instead. It's very interesting how the careers of Giambi and Ortiz diverged - Ortiz wasn't exactly highly thought-of in those days.
It's really weird that a 21 year old with a 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP in A+ ball and a 6.10 ERA in 10.0 IP at MLB gets predicted at 4.11 ERA, 127.0 IP in MLB the following season.
That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.
That sort of prediction doesn't seem so far off if you ascribe nervousness as affecting Miller's control in MLB last year, but a scout would be doing that, not a computer projection.
I have a very rough outline at a college translation, but I only use that in the very rare case as I mention above, of a player that has almost no professional experience but people still expect that player to have a projection.
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