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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Sunday, November 05, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Lance Berkman# 1b 31 .301 .414 .558 152 529 91 159 32 1 34 109 102 104 5 3
Morgan Ensberg 3b 31 .261 .373 .471 128 418 62 109 21 2 21 66 72 89 3 4
Luke Scott* lf 29 .259 .340 .501 142 479 65 124 30 4 26 79 57 100 4 1
Hunter Pence rf 24 .276 .339 .506 139 504 69 139 27 4 27 80 48 107 9 4
Aubrey Huff* 3b 30 .281 .348 .474 139 513 70 144 26 2 23 83 48 97 3 2
Mike Lamb* 1b 31 .287 .342 .466 118 328 51 94 17 3 12 45 28 57 2 2
Jason Lane rf 30 .246 .324 .451 117 350 47 86 19 1 17 53 38 85 3 2
Chris Burke 2b 27 .269 .336 .407 125 398 66 107 24 2 9 38 34 77 17 7
Alan Zinter# 1b 39 .236 .317 .416 81 178 20 42 9 1 7 28 21 54 1 0
Craig Biggio 2b 41 .255 .311 .419 137 530 78 135 33 0 18 52 35 87 5 1
Willy Taveras cf 25 .290 .338 .364 151 549 87 159 21 4 4 33 35 92 35 14
Cody Ransom ss 31 .237 .303 .421 113 316 35 75 17 1 13 41 29 86 3 1
Walter Young* 1b 27 .259 .302 .425 127 440 46 114 22 0 17 69 25 99 2 3
Humberto Quintero c 27 .269 .311 .395 91 301 33 81 20 0 6 35 16 48 2 1
Brooks Conrad# 2b 27 .235 .300 .421 132 480 68 113 29 6 16 61 43 124 10 4
Jeff Bagwell 1b 39 .233 .318 .390 138 464 65 108 20 1 17 68 54 127 5 4
Eric Munson* c 29 .230 .297 .426 81 256 33 59 11 0 13 37 22 66 0 1
Orlando Palmeiro* lf 38 .261 .329 .359 98 142 16 37 9 1 1 14 12 17 2 1
Hector Gimenez# c 24 .260 .310 .380 108 384 37 100 13 0 11 49 27 69 1 2
Eric Bruntlett 2b 29 .239 .323 .359 107 251 37 60 11 2 5 26 29 53 8 4
Barry Wesson cf 30 .257 .293 .366 118 366 42 94 18 2 6 39 18 86 5 2
Charlton Jimerson rf 27 .238 .278 .418 134 462 55 110 23 3 18 42 24 167 18 10
Tike Redman* cf 30 .254 .295 .341 108 355 40 90 15 2 4 29 20 35 7 4
Josh Anderson* cf 24 .264 .300 .335 145 591 72 156 25 4 3 37 28 86 26 14
Adam Everett ss 30 .241 .287 .339 125 440 49 106 21 2 6 40 25 74 9 3
Brad Ausmus c 38 .232 .309 .284 106 328 27 76 14 0 1 31 35 52 2 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Morgan Ensberg
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .282 .400 .553 140 458 78 129 28 3 27 85 86 87 4 2
Mean .261 .373 .471 128 418 62 109 21 2 21 66 72 89 3 4
Pessimistic (15%) .241 .345 .414 90 295 38 71 13 1 12 40 45 67 1 3
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Roger Clemens 44 2.77 14 5 29 29 179.0 144 55 13 59 166
Roy Oswalt 29 3.17 18 9 34 34 233.0 222 82 21 51 184
Dan Wheeler 29 3.46 4 2 65 0 65.0 66 25 8 21 61
Brad Lidge 30 3.51 5 3 75 0 77.0 63 30 8 30 106
Trever Miller* 34 3.75 2 2 64 1 48.0 44 20 5 18 45
Andy Pettitte* 35 3.94 13 11 32 31 194.0 195 85 22 56 154
Chad Qualls 28 4.11 5 5 78 0 81.0 80 37 9 27 55
Russ Springer 38 4.17 2 2 62 0 54.0 50 25 8 19 43
Dave Borkowski 30 4.18 8 8 35 19 140.0 143 65 18 41 95
Chris Sampson 29 4.32 8 8 35 20 146.0 163 70 21 23 68
Taylor Buchholz 25 4.43 8 8 26 22 132.0 133 65 20 46 91
Jason Hirsh 25 4.47 11 11 30 30 169.0 166 84 21 72 127
Paul Estrada 24 4.55 6 7 52 1 89.0 80 45 15 44 85
Travis Driskill 35 4.64 5 7 45 5 95.0 101 49 18 25 68
Fernando Nieve 24 4.78 5 6 33 19 130.0 125 69 24 56 111
Juan Gutierrez 23 4.85 6 8 23 21 117.0 120 63 17 52 84
Matt Albers 24 4.90 8 10 27 26 156.0 156 85 19 75 106
Brandon Backe 29 4.94 7 9 29 20 124.0 124 68 17 56 88
Mark McLemore* 26 4.98 3 5 18 12 65.0 62 36 8 41 47
Troy Patton* 21 4.99 7 11 26 26 139.0 148 77 20 57 100
Chance Douglass 23 5.00 7 10 28 26 162.0 176 90 22 68 88
Wandy Rodriguez* 25 5.07 9 14 32 29 165.0 171 93 22 74 115
Jared Gothreaux 27 5.09 6 10 26 24 138.0 157 78 23 41 74
Mike Gallo* 29 5.14 2 3 65 0 63.0 71 36 9 27 36
Ezequiel Astacio 27 5.15 7 10 30 23 138.0 142 79 25 53 108
Jimmy Barthmaier 23 5.63 7 12 27 26 144.0 152 90 15 92 106
Steve Kent* 28 6.07 1 2 37 0 40.0 44 27 5 28 21
Felipe Paulino 23 6.37 4 10 26 22 113.0 128 80 22 69 61
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Roy Oswalt
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 2.70 21 7 35 35 240 216 72 18 47 193
Mean 3.17 18 9 34 34 233 222 82 21 51 184
Pessimistic (15%) 3.74 13 10 29 28 190 195 79 22 45 143
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 05, 2006 at 02:17 PM | 28 comment(s)
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1. Frisco Cali Posted: November 05, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#2231872)Well, Pence is apparently capable of playing CF too. A Lee, Pence, Scott OF would be defensively challenged though.
A combination of Burke/Biggio at 2b shouldn't be too bad offensively at 2nd either.
The interesting decision this offseason will be what they do with Ensberg. His numbers for the year were good, but a lot of that was tied into his April and May. After May he was terrible. His performance over the past 3 years has varied wildly and it's hard to know what to expect.
Not while peripherals survive, especially peripherals as awesome as Roger's.
Yes. Ransom's generally thought as OK In That Minor League Organizational Player Sense at short these days while Everett's tremendous. You probably wouldn't be far wrong if you gave Everett a 30 run edge on defense and that's twice the difference between their runs created/500 AB.
Well, Pence is apparently capable of playing CF too. A Lee, Pence, Scott OF would be defensively challenged though.
I can't imagine playing Pence at center in the majors is a realistic scenario.
But they are more likely to spend 15 million to improve by at most 5-10 runs (Carlos Lee over current options) than to try and plug the offensive black hole that is Brad Ausmus.
Everett's a black hole on offense too, but at least he makes up for it with his glove.
Maybe so, but at the time it looked like a reasonable move. With the way Luke Scott looked in some of his major league AB's in '05 it was hard to pencil him into a starting role at the start of '06.
The Astros value defense at catcher more than almost any team at catcher (obviously) which is why they continue to employ Brad Ausmus despite his offense. Clemens said after the '05 World Series that in order to resign him they first needed to resign Ausmus.
Baseball America had a recent article about how much Pence's defense had improved. They described him as above average on the corners and capable in CF. The Astros did try him in CF some in Corpus even with 2 defensively superior CF's on the team (Redman and Anderson).
I think the plan is to make Nieve a full time late inning reliever next year where he would probably beat that ERA projection pretty handily.
Surprisingly low strikeout projection on Estrada.
If nothing else the Astros figure to have a good bullpen once again.
How about Bengie Mo?
He's not as good as Ausmus with the glove, but he's all right handling pitchers.
A question: how did House become a free agent? Was he a 6-year minor league FA? Or, was he simply dropped from the 40-man roster?
Originally he was in the Pirates organization. That should tell you how he became a FA (i.e. pick the answer that most reflects badly on the organization).
I've heard he's lost a few steps (unfortunately, he never really played much in my area's minor leagues)
The elves cobbling Dave Littlefield's shoes at night told him that J.R. House was secretly plotting a Huguenot uprising that would turn the Nuttings into peanut brittle?
Nov. 9, 2006, 7:17PM
Biggio to sign 1-year Astros deal, sources say
By BRIAN McTAGGART
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
The Astros will hold a press conference Friday to announce a one-year contract agreement with second baseman Craig Biggio slightly more than $5 million, according to people close to the negotiations.
Biggio, who will turn 41 next month, will return for his 20th season with the Astros next year, needing just 70 hits to become the first player in team history and 27th all-time to reach the 3,000-hit total.
Biggio hit .246 with 21 homers and 62 RBIs last year while making $4 million. He was scheduled to return home to Houston today from a hunting trip to south Texas and will be at Minute Maid Park on Friday.
Biggio had to sign with the Astros by Saturday or file for free agency. Saturday is the final day players can file for free agency, and teams can begin negotiations with other teams’ free agents Sunday.
-- MWE
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