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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
2007 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Joe Mauer* c 24 .313 .398 .465 145 540 80 169 31 3 15 81 79 57 10 2
Justin Morneau* 1b 26 .287 .355 .538 154 571 91 164 33 1 36 123 58 99 2 2
Michael Cuddyer rf 28 .265 .348 .463 138 486 82 129 33 3 19 80 57 113 4 2
Jason Kubel* lf 24 .284 .342 .477 133 457 72 130 30 2 18 75 39 77 7 5
Kevin West lf 27 .248 .311 .426 98 331 40 82 20 0 13 50 26 80 2 1
Torii Hunter cf 31 .270 .329 .445 123 467 69 126 23 1 19 71 37 89 15 6
Lew Ford lf 30 .267 .349 .395 115 382 57 102 22 3 7 43 36 54 10 2
Jason Bartlett ss 27 .290 .346 .391 139 486 74 141 31 3 4 45 35 70 11 5
Shannon Stewart lf 33 .275 .341 .392 83 342 44 94 17 1 7 38 31 49 4 2
Luis Castillo# 2b 31 .294 .361 .359 137 537 82 158 18 4 3 44 57 55 18 7
Phil Nevin 1b 36 .249 .325 .414 98 338 46 84 14 0 14 56 35 125 1 0
Garrett Jones* 1b 26 .248 .301 .454 140 504 60 125 31 2 23 81 36 111 3 3
Mike Redmond c 36 .287 .335 .374 51 174 17 50 12 0 1 22 7 18 0 0
Luis Rodriguez# 3b 27 .264 .330 .370 113 349 47 92 23 1 4 36 33 40 2 2
Rondell White dh 35 .262 .306 .397 89 325 42 85 18 1 8 41 16 53 0 0
Alex Romero# lf 23 .256 .316 .372 135 457 52 117 23 3 8 53 37 56 9 7
Nick Punto# 3b 29 .265 .330 .345 122 415 57 110 19 4 2 38 40 67 11 6
Glenn Williams# 3b 29 .247 .298 .386 105 352 36 87 18 2 9 40 24 81 2 1
Josh Rabe lf 28 .250 .311 .358 108 360 45 90 19 1 6 40 30 56 8 6
Alexi Casilla# ss 22 .269 .321 .334 137 491 71 132 20 3 2 33 36 56 31 12
Jason Tyner* lf 30 .269 .317 .321 135 501 69 135 18 4 0 34 33 60 8 5
Andres Torres# cf 29 .240 .321 .345 93 287 35 69 13 4 3 21 32 75 11 8
Shawn Wooten c 34 .242 .290 .346 100 335 25 81 17 0 6 35 21 74 1 0
Quinton McCracken# rf 36 .248 .306 .327 80 165 16 41 6 2 1 11 13 27 3 1
Denard Span* cf 23 .263 .314 .312 144 548 79 144 14 5 1 42 39 88 15 11
Alejandro Machado 2b 25 .240 .310 .306 114 359 48 86 11 2 3 30 34 45 14 6
Chris Heintz c 32 .251 .291 .338 82 287 29 72 13 0 4 31 15 56 0 2
Matt Moses* 3b 22 .233 .283 .345 148 537 46 125 22 1 12 71 36 134 5 3
Luis Maza 2b 27 .239 .276 .354 103 364 47 87 17 2 7 38 15 61 2 2
Trevor Plouffe ss 21 .200 .265 .293 146 505 53 101 24 1 7 43 43 96 5 4
Steve Lomasney c 29 .172 .214 .241 52 145 8 25 4 0 2 13 7 61 0 1
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Justin Morneau
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .307 .378 .602 161 596 108 183 40 2 44 157 65 93 3 1
Mean .287 .355 .538 154 571 91 164 33 1 36 123 58 99 2 2
Pessimistic (15%) .267 .323 .483 129 476 65 127 25 0 26 84 40 94 1 2
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Joe Nathan 32 2.12 6 1 67 0 68.0 47 16 4 18 87
Juan Rincon 28 2.92 7 3 75 0 77.0 66 25 4 27 77
Johan Santana* 28 2.95 18 6 34 34 226.0 189 74 26 50 234
Francisco Liriano* 23 3.26 13 6 31 24 160.0 134 58 17 47 175
Jesse Crain 25 3.43 7 4 68 0 76.0 72 29 8 25 55
Matt Guerrier 28 3.55 2 1 42 1 71.0 77 28 8 25 41
Dennys Reyes* 30 3.71 5 3 52 6 80.0 75 33 8 30 69
Pat Neshek 26 3.86 7 4 58 0 84.0 76 36 15 24 92
Matt Garza 23 3.88 13 10 28 28 160.0 158 69 17 51 124
Brad Radke 34 4.10 12 9 31 31 191.0 211 87 27 28 112
Kevin Slowey 23 4.31 6 5 20 19 119.0 129 57 18 21 80
Scott Baker 25 4.45 10 10 28 28 170.0 183 84 23 43 113
Julio DePaula 24 4.68 3 3 46 0 77.0 83 40 5 36 37
Carlos Silva 28 4.85 10 11 31 29 182.0 223 98 29 27 71
J.D. Durbin 25 4.86 4 5 20 18 100.0 101 54 12 55 73
Willie Eyre 28 4.93 4 5 44 8 95.0 104 52 12 38 60
Boof Bonser 25 4.94 10 12 30 30 173.0 183 95 32 65 133
Glen Perkins* 24 5.13 6 9 26 24 135.0 143 77 18 59 97
Bobby Korecky 27 5.16 4 6 52 0 75.0 86 43 9 28 34
Dave Gassner* 28 5.19 7 10 23 22 130.0 154 75 22 31 64
Anthony Swarzak 21 5.32 8 12 28 28 159.0 177 94 23 63 95
Jason Miller* 24 5.42 3 5 35 9 88.0 95 53 14 39 62
Oswaldo Sosa 21 5.54 8 12 24 24 138.0 160 85 13 69 62
Adam Harben 23 5.75 5 9 28 24 133.0 149 85 16 75 65
Mike Smith 28 5.77 6 10 30 25 159.0 182 102 25 73 83
Peter Munro 32 5.79 6 12 32 23 146.0 176 94 23 47 67
Ricky Barrett* 26 5.84 3 6 46 3 77.0 78 50 12 54 66
Alexander Smit* 21 5.87 4 7 35 15 115.0 120 75 20 69 88
Errol Simonitsch* 24 6.05 7 15 28 27 165.0 203 111 31 49 78
Justin Olson 27 6.26 5 10 32 12 102.0 114 71 22 51 76
Colby Miller 25 6.38 3 6 18 10 72.0 86 51 13 36 32
Jose Mijares* 22 7.59 2 7 27 6 64.0 74 54 19 44 50
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight (Beta) - Carlos Silva
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 4.08 13 10 34 32 205 235 93 27 25 83
Mean 4.85 10 11 31 29 182 223 98 29 27 71
Pessimistic (15%) 5.59 6 11 26 24 148 193 92 29 24 57
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2007.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are noted with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
And yes, I know that Brad Radke’s retiring.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.51 ERA and the NL having a 4.37 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:46 PM | 28 comment(s)
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1. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: December 13, 2006 at 08:11 PM (#2260496)How about adding Jeff Cirillo,Ken Harvey, Carmen Cali and Mike Venafro or just do a Transaction Oracle projection for them?
Under on Liriano games started. Oh, I'm going to hell.
Got it.
An eternal fascination with HS CFs who could run fast
Tyner totally blew the streak he had working in 2006. If he just hit 1 home run, he would have hit more than 0 home runs for 3 consecutive professional seasons. When Tyner hit his home run for the Richmond Braves in 2004, it was his first since his senior year of high school (1994).
If there was ever a time to do a premature TO, Matsuzaka is it! Yeah, baby. You might as well throw in Clemens, since he's next. Right? Right? Please?
Actually with West, perhaps ZIPs is projecting him to be used more in a platoon role this year, which would accentuate his positives. Kubel might just be just young enough that he projects as being talented and his relatively few ABs in the past 2 years haven't overwhelmed his success from before.
Sigh, If youre going to rail against some perceived wrong (like toolsy HSers and the teams who love em) for no good reason (that is railing against drafting toolsy HSers, railing against drafting Tyner is ok i guess) at least get the facts right. Tyner was a college guy from Texas A&M]
Harben, FYI, hasnt been a Twin since August or so. He went to the Cubs for Nevin and now hes not even a Cub after the Cubs nontendered him to free up a 40man spot
And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies
The Kubel one was more of a puzzler - the projection for 2007 was right. So I checked the projection for 2006 and it was last year's projection that was wrong. I couldn't figure out how it was oddly wrong until it dawned on me - his missing season had messed me up when I cut and pasted and his 2006 projection included a Dave Krynzel line. All-in-all, ZiPS has loved Kubel for awhile based on his pre-2005 years.
And yeah I dont get the West thing either except that Zips always seems to have a couple random minor leaguers projected to do a little (or a lot) too well as rookies
Some seem to think so, but I also check error bars by age group and I'm not missing on rookies any more than players in their prime or older players.
While there are very few league-average players kicking around in the minors, there still are a lot of replacement-level ones. Professional baseball players are the far right of the baseball talent curve and every step down increases by scads the amount of players that have that much ability. 315/465 leftfielders that aren't very good defensively are a dime a dozen - if you're not getting a lot of people of that ability level, you're probably doing something wrong.
What about third basemen? The Twins sure have some doozies. Cirillo seemed like a pretty big upgrade, but based on his Milwaukee projection, he might not be much better than what they've got otherwise.
Jeff Cirillo 3b 37 .277 .338 .369 81 195 25 54 12 0 2 17 16 26 1 2Luis Rodriguez# 3b 27 .264 .330 .370 113 349 47 92 23 1 4 36 33 40 2 2
Nick Punto# 3b 29 .265 .330 .345 122 415 57 110 19 4 2 38 40 67 11 6
Glenn Williams# 3b 29 .247 .298 .386 105 352 36 87 18 2 9 40 24 81 2 1
Alexi Casilla# ss 22 .269 .321 .334 137 491 71 132 20 3 2 33 36 56 31 12
Alejandro Machado 2b 25 .240 .310 .306 114 359 48 86 11 2 3 30 34 45 14 6
Matt Moses* 3b 22 .233 .283 .345 148 537 46 125 22 1 12 71 36 134 5 3
Cirillo's no world-beater, but I think he stands the best chance of that group to actually meet or exceed his projection. Glenn Williams barely hit that projection in AAA last year. Furthermore, Casilla and Machado aren't 3B and have never even played the position in the minor leagues, and Moses is hardly an option entering 2007 after hitting .249/.303/.386 with poor defense at AA.
Hopefully Punto can carry over some of his 2006 success, but in any case, the Twins needed a reliable backup plan, as well as a backup 1B (preferably RH) and a veteran bat off the bench. Cirillo's fine for that role, and his salary is a drop in the bucket, even for the Twins.
And people say that Krynzel will never contribute!
Mauer's OBP
Cuddyer's HR
Hunter's HR
Punto's OBP
Casilla's AVG
Neshek's ERA
Perkins
Barrett
I'll take the under on:
Ford
West
Stewart
Span
G. Jones's HR
And, Boof Bonser WILL be better in 2007 than his ZIPS show. He's added a spike curve that is really going to be a difference maker for him, just like it was in the final 2 months.
Bonser
Pre-Break (pre-spike curve) 6.8 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9
Post-Break (post-spike curve) 7.9 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9
Thanks again, Brian Sabean!
Nice table formatting Craig in MN! Everyone please take notes.
In other Twins moves, ESPN is reporting that the Twins resigned Rondell White for $2.75 million. I suspect he'll be healthier and provide decent results, but coming off a terrible year overall, and with no real competition for his services, that seems a bit high.
It looks to me that the Twins bought out his $3 million option for $.75 million and then negotiated to pay him $2.75 million instead, with performance clauses that could add a few hundred thousand more. Math might not be my strong suit, but it seems to me that adds up to more than $3 million. Even if I am wrong about them having to buy him out after last season, he'd only have to get 450 PAs in 2007 to earn enough incentives make that $3 million. Sure, the Twins also got a $3.5 million option for the following year out of the deal, but paying him more this year for a chance to pay him less next year doesn't seem like necessarily smart negotiating.
And again, who else was competing for his services?
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