2008 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
It’s starting to look like the Braves’ 2006 total of 79 wins represents the low-water mark for a while.
Considering their prominence in the NL over the last 15 years, it’s surprising how quiet the Braves snuck back towards contention last year. On the offensive side, if the Big 5 can stay healthy, Atlanta has to be one of the favorites for the Wild Card and a contender for the division. The path of Kelly Johnson and Matt Die-az are clearer nw than ever before and there’s little reason to think Brian McCann can’t get back to his 2006 level of play, though catchers seem to age in bizarre ways at times. This offense plus General Zod and Hudson and this is a very dangerous October team.
The Braves are, however, probably more susceptible to injuries than the average team. There aren’t a lot of backups at the offensive positions (they could survive with Pena at catcher and Prado/Lillibridge in the middle infield) and the rotation has little depth past the major leaguers. The Braves system has some really interesting players, but they’re mainly very far off and even the ones I projected, like Schafer and Flowers, are a few years away. This is a team that really should be thinking about overpaying Kyle Lohse. Lohse hasn’t attracted much interest (or at least it seems that way from the no-buzz surrounding him) and if that’s really the case, I don’t think a 2-year, $20 million offer would be all that bad an idea.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Chipper Jones# 3b 36 .318 .415 .564 111 406 80 129 30 2 22 85 67 66 4 0
Mark Teixeira# 1b 28 .296 .384 .523 147 568 93 168 32 2 31 116 81 119 2 0
Brian McCann* c 24 .300 .361 .512 143 506 61 152 38 0 23 94 46 70 1 0
Matt Diaz lf 30 .332 .364 .499 136 377 49 125 24 3 11 61 16 71 6 3
Kelly Johnson* 2b 26 .271 .376 .464 124 431 72 117 24 7 15 69 69 96 7 5
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279 .358 .466—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.274 .348 .448—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.273 .345 .450—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274 .342 .440—————————————————————
Yunel Escobar ss 25 .297 .361 .404 143 505 67 150 32 2 6 63 47 84 8 7
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.268 .335 .418—————————————————————
Jeff Francoeur rf 24 .279 .321 .447 161 645 84 180 35 2 23 101 35 131 1 3
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.273 .335 .406—————————————————————
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.271 .328 .399—————————————————————
Mark Kotsay* cf 32 .277 .334 .388 103 412 48 114 23 1 7 50 35 41 3 2
Javy Lopez c 37 .267 .311 .419 96 356 37 95 22 1 10 50 20 76 0 0
AVERAGE C———————c——- .253 .317 .391—————————————————————
Julio Franco 1b 49 .257 .339 .353 89 167 18 43 7 0 3 20 20 42 4 1
Scott Thorman* 1b 26 .249 .296 .431 150 457 50 114 27 1 18 72 28 97 2 1
Brandon Jones* rf 24 .250 .305 .412 136 524 46 131 29 4 16 76 40 131 14 7
Martin Prado 2b 24 .281 .324 .365 142 502 56 141 26 2 4 54 32 70 3 3
Omar Infante 2b 26 .264 .304 .393 102 303 38 80 18 3 5 30 17 54 5 1
Brent Lillibridge ss 24 .250 .314 .377 146 539 66 135 26 3 12 68 44 137 37 13
Gregor Blanco* cf 24 .261 .349 .333 149 559 84 146 26 4 2 53 74 124 27 17
Brayan Pena# c 26 .278 .313 .368 113 378 36 105 20 1 4 41 19 44 4 5
Corky Miller c 32 .211 .306 .352 69 199 17 42 10 0 6 26 20 38 2 0
Tyler Flowers 1b 22 .238 .293 .396 118 454 44 108 31 1 13 62 33 108 2 7
Josh Anderson* rf 25 .268 .312 .327 150 590 71 158 21 4 2 46 30 87 31 12
Javier Guzman ss 24 .250 .285 .334 107 380 39 95 16 2 4 28 16 56 7 5
Chris Woodward 2b 32 .224 .283 .321 81 165 18 37 8 1 2 16 13 40 1 0
Jordan Schafer* cf 21 .229 .270 .370 137 533 46 122 32 5 11 64 29 150 16 15
Clint Sammons c 25 .211 .256 .311 110 383 23 81 17 0 7 39 21 91 2 2
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Jones# Av
Teixeira# Av
McCann* Fr
Diaz Vg Av
Johnson* Fr Fr Fr
Escobar Av Av Av
Francoeur Av
Kotsay* Av Av
Lopez Pr
Franco Av
Thorman* Av Av
Jones* Vg Vg
Prado Av Av Fr
Infante Av Av Fr Av Av
Lillibridge Av Av
Blanco* Vg Av Vg
Pena# Vg Av Fr Fr Fr
Miller Av
Flowers Av Av
Anderson* Vg Av Vg
Guzman Av Fr Av Av
Woodward Vg Av Vg Av Av Av
Schafer* Vg
Sammons Vg
Player Spotlight - Brian McCann
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .329 .395 .592 154 544 79 179 45 1 32 120 57 67 3 0 153 1
Mean .300 .361 .512 143 506 61 152 38 0 23 94 46 70 1 0 124 -1
Pessimistic (15%) .277 .327 .457 133 470 42 130 31 0 18 76 33 76 0 1 102 -4
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Johnny Bench, Ivan Rodriguez
Player Spotlight - Jeff Francoeur
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ DR
Optimistic (15%) .302 .352 .500 162 650 99 196 40 4 27 115 43 119 6 1 119 6
Mean .279 .323 .447 161 645 84 180 35 2 23 101 35 131 1 3 98 2
Pessimistic (15%) .250 .284 .375 149 597 55 149 27 0 16 77 24 143 0 4 70 -2
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ruben Sierra, Ellis Valentine
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Mike Gonzalez* 30 2.47 3 1 40 0 40.0 30 11 1 22 48
Rafael Soriano 28 3.05 3 1 55 0 56.0 48 19 7 14 62
John Smoltz 41 3.35 14 7 31 31 204.0 191 76 18 49 181
Peter Moylan 29 3.67 5 3 66 0 81.0 75 33 6 37 61
Mike Hampton* 35 3.71 1 1 3 3 17.0 18 7 1 5 7
Will Ohman* 30 3.76 3 2 75 0 55.0 49 23 4 27 55
Tim Hudson 32 3.88 14 9 30 30 197.0 198 85 17 59 128
Phil Stockman 28 3.91 2 1 36 2 46.0 41 20 3 29 42
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.07———————————————————————-
Tyler Yates 30 4.22 3 3 70 0 64.0 57 30 6 34 67
Jair Jurrjens 22 4.27 8 7 27 27 158.0 170 75 19 34 96
Kris Medlen 22 4.30 2 1 40 0 46.0 45 22 6 18 45
Royce Ring* 27 4.34 3 3 59 0 58.0 55 28 6 33 50
Chuck James* 26 4.44 9 9 30 27 154.0 157 76 25 49 118
Blaine Boyer 26 4.45 5 5 41 11 89.0 90 44 6 51 64
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.46———————————————————————-
Chris Resop 25 4.50 3 3 49 0 64.0 66 32 7 27 49
Tom Glavine* 42 4.59 11 11 32 32 192.0 216 98 21 63 100
Rheal Cormier* 41 4.65 1 2 39 0 31.0 34 16 4 12 19
Manny Acosta 27 4.87 5 5 50 0 61.0 57 33 6 48 49
Buddy Carlyle 30 4.91 5 6 24 14 88.0 92 48 17 26 80
Jorge Campillo 29 4.94 6 6 24 18 133.0 152 73 16 32 59
Jeff Bennett 28 5.00 4 4 49 3 81.0 88 45 12 34 48
Matt DeSalvo 27 5.01 7 9 26 25 140.0 145 78 15 82 90
Zach Schreiber 26 5.06 3 4 52 0 64.0 66 36 8 43 56
Jo-Jo Reyes* 23 5.22 7 10 29 28 150.0 154 87 21 84 108
Jonathon Rouwenhorst* 28 5.54 6 9 41 13 112.0 130 69 18 42 62
Jeff Ridgway* 27 5.57 2 5 51 2 63.0 70 39 12 30 51
Anthony Lerew 25 5.76 3 6 18 16 86.0 95 55 14 46 54
Charlie Morton 24 6.65 4 8 38 10 92.0 109 68 16 61 48
Jairo Cuevas 24 6.91 5 14 27 25 129.0 149 99 27 98 82
Thomas Hanson 21 7.49 3 11 26 25 119.0 145 99 36 63 93
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Tim Hudson
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.06 17 6 31 31 212 194 72 14 50 145 141
Mean 3.88 14 9 30 30 197 198 85 17 59 128 111
Pessimistic (15%) 5.03 9 10 25 25 152 176 85 16 59 83 86
Top Near-Age Comps: Rick Rhoden, Doug Drabek
Player Spotlight - Chuck James
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Optimistic (15%) 3.48 13 7 33 30 176 159 68 23 48 144 124
Mean 4.44 9 9 30 27 154 157 76 25 49 116 97
Pessimistic (15%) 5.77 6 9 25 23 120 138 77 26 46 85 75
Top Near-Age Comps: Donovan Osborne, Ray Sadecki
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 25, 2008 at 11:35 PM |
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1. Russlan is not Russian Posted: January 26, 2008 at 12:01 AM (#2676326)Someone should forward these projections to Omar and see if he gives the Twins a ring this weekend.
(rhetorical question)Where the heck did Matt Diaz come from?
Diaz was a Phelpser that played bad defense in left and a lots of high BAs. Turns out he had a bad vision problem that prevented him from seeing depth (the Lamar-run Devil Rays never tested him) and the Braves fixed his vision. His defensive numbers in left have been excellent since (2007 in particular), by ZR, THT's ZR, and he was the best defensive LF in baseball by Pinto.
The optimistic projection is 5. His pessimistic projection is actually 0. I've never had ZiPS tell me that before.
Combine this projection and that Vg in left, and how Brandom Jones isn't projected to pan out yet, and we might see a full year of Diaz.
Whats heartening is that 4 starting pitchers are projected as above average and then Glavine. Not counting Hampton ofcourse. Boyer might start a few games as a swingman.
Also the projection on Reyes. His peripherals seem to have been shot , but his minor league record is actually quite good.
They're not. I've tracked groups of major league players every year and I've been in the middle of the pack for the same players of the common projection systems. BP tracked it last year as well. For the group of players with 200 PA and 40 innings (or some such cutoff), I was, as usual, in the middle of the pack for OPS and the middle of the pack for ERA. As far as I know, I've never even been the second-most-optimistic or second-most-pessismistic in any summary statistic.
From what I've tracked, nobody in the pack has been an outlier positive or negative with the exception of the James projections, which have been the most optimistic on individual players more often than every other system combined. I've tracked James projecting as many as 23 starting position players at a position being above average. Of course, they're not really James's projections, he's the brand name.
I haven't checked who's been optimistic or pessimistic this offseason. But I haven't made any change whatsoever that would cause my projections to be more pessimistic than in the past.
Diaz was picked up from the Royals couple of years during ST. They had an outfield jam :)
Hmm hope Chipper stay healthy
All players with 250 PA (OPS)
ESPN: .804
Rotowire: .802
Marcel: .799
Rototimes: .796
PECOTA: .796
ZiPS: .783
CHONE: .782
ACTUAL: .777
THT: .771
All pitchers with 50 IP (ERA)
THT: 4.43
Marcel: 4.41
PECOTA: 4.38
ZiPS: 4.33
ACTUAL: 4.27
Rototimes: 4.21
ESPN: 4.21
Rotowire: 4.16
CHONE: 4.11
All told, slightly half my overall error from the proper average was missing league average (I had projected slightly higher offense than actual). When that's taken into account, I was too optimistic on hitters by 0.003 points of OPS and too pessimistic on pitchers by 0.04 points of ERA.
As much as I like KJ, Utley's definitely quite a bit better defensively.
Oops, I broke the fix!
I'm a minority of one in believing this, but his defense was never that bad in the corners to begin with - his speed (used to be a tiny bit faster) compensated for his occasional bad breaks.
Javy's back on a minor league deal.
I'm generally loathe to suggest additional positions, for a variety of reasons, but you may want to add CF to Lillibridge, as some think he'll get a decent amount of time there in '08 (I don't) and he has played there in winter ball and college.
Diaz was a Phelpser that played bad defense in left and a lots of high BAs. Turns out he had a bad vision problem that prevented him from seeing depth (the Lamar-run Devil Rays never tested him) and the Braves fixed his vision. His defensive numbers in left have been excellent since (2007 in particular), by ZR, THT's ZR, and he was the best defensive LF in baseball by Pinto.
Der-Komminskar disagrees, but I thought Diaz was terrible defensively in KC, even at the corners.
Diaz hit developed quite a bit of power late in the minors, yet that seems to have disappeared in the majors.
Is his .332 AVG the highest ZIPS projected average in the league?
That probably was vision-related. When I saw him in the minors, he was awful as well.
-- MWE
Love the Ridgeway projection. You go get 'um Frank!
Jeff Francouer
1) Seth Smith (Colorado)
2) Mather (St Louis)
3) Adam Lind (Toronto)
Brandon Jones
1) Felix Pie (Chicago Cubs)
2) F.Gutierrez (Cleveland)
3) Adam Lind (Toronto)
Gregor Blanco
1) Gardner (NYY)
2) Gwynn (Mil)
3) Bourn (Hou)
vr, Xeifrank
Are you planning on running projections for guys like Josh Hamilton (who was not on the Rangers when you ran their projections, and yet was already gone from the Reds when you did their team) or Miguel Tejada (who was not on the Astros when they were featured, and yet had been shipped out of Baltimore by the time the Orioles projections were run) who ended up in projection-limbo due to the staggered nature of the projections?
Tejada's Astro projection
In the very top right of the pages on this site, there is a search feature. You can usually find the projections you are looking for entering "Hamilton Rangers" for example.
vr, Xeifrank
I appreciate the helpful guidance.
I'll take the over on Tex, Frenchy, and Glavine.
For the record, in the three seasons since the down year: .968, 1.005, 1.029.
This is an all-time great, folks.
(not even remotely a Braves fan speaking here)
Yeah, everybody appears in the overall ZiPS Spreadsheet and Disk Builds.
That's one hell of a projection.
Damn you, Szymborski, you're KILLING MY DREAMS.
Request, please, for SS/2B Diory Hernandez. I imagine his projection will stink, but if some of last year's gains with the bat are real, he's useful.
I think the Diaz projection is high on the SLG end, and Escobar probably has a bit of a return to earth ahead of him, but we'll see.
The optimistic projection is 5. His pessimistic projection is actually 0. I've never had ZiPS tell me that before.
I just think this is the most entertaining projection ever. The only other possible scenario that would be better would be a Juan Gonzalez projection that had him at zero or one plate appearance.
This Mets fan is 100% convinced that Chipper Jones is a deserving HOFer.
140 OPS+, 400+ HR, 1500 RBI if he hangs on long enough.
Third base hasn't been real friendly to HOF applicants (see Santo, Ron), but Chipper's numbers are far stronger. It also can't hurt that he is (or appears to be) steroid-free and that many of his contemporaries (Matt Williams, Rolen, Glaus) were unable to sustain their early-career dominance. Chipper is the defining offensive superstar of the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz Brave dynasty, and that will count for something in the minds of voters.
We've been calling for the dearth of enshrined 3Bs to be rectified for a while, right? Looks to me like Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Miguel Cabrera, and David Wright are all on the fast track to Cooperstown.
I do this one all the time:
Jones thru 35: 1895 g, 2117 h, 425 2B, 386 HR, 1296 r, 1299 rbi, 307/403/546, 143 OPS+, 134/43 sb
Brett thru 35: 2013 g, 2399 h, 488 2B, 255 HR, 1233 r, 1231 rbi, 312/378/505, 142 OPS+, 161/80 sb
The main difference is Chipper got hurt and missed his age 22 season. The other big difference would be Chipper's two years in LF but Brett stopped playing 3B after 33 so Chipper has closed the gap to about 250 games at 3B. I love that they both have nearly equal r and rbi.
As a hitter, he is absolutely an inner-circle 3B. There is a lot of disagreement about his glove though I never thought he was substantially below-average.
For the record, in the three seasons since the down year: .968, 1.005, 1.029.
of course that was in "just" 353 games.
But if none of those things happen, I'd say the Braves have a decent chance.
hooter's wings are pretty good. the waitresses, usually not so much.
Absolutely. I just don't see a majority of sports writers saying "Chipper was a HOF bat, but his defensive rankings at Baseball Prospectus were always so low..." And really, when you talk about Chipper's "poor defense", you're talking about BPro's rankings. He doesn't fare poorly in any other system that I know of. He's usually a moderate to decent defender, and if you're a grizzled old beat writer listening to the scouts he has had flashes of actual goodness.
And he crushes the ball. Won an MVP, should have won another last year, the best hitter at 3B for his career until the Yanks moved the SS god off position, crucial part of the Braves dynasty, as of yet untainted with the steroid debacle, friendly in the clubhouse and with reporters, has the glow of Bobby Cox behind him. He definately _should_ go in first ballot. He's a better candidate than Ron Santo.
Really? Chipper has, IMO, a good chance to be the second best 3B of all time (until DWright passes him).
I have no idea what Diaz's usual BABIPs look like but on the surface of things I can believe him being a BABIP outliers. He does a really good job of hitting line drives usually and always posted good gap power and BAs in the minors.
As Der-K has mentioned he is one of the few guys SABR heads have anointed a Ken Phelps All Star despite being high-BA low walks.
My opinions on Diaz defense have kind of gone 180 to the consensus. It used to be I thought he was a little better than people said but now people are talking up his D numbers as GG quality but I just can't see that.
Some people who saw him - whose opinions I respect, like Emiegh, agreed with the consensus that he sucked. I was with Der-K in saying that his surprisingly good speed and arm somewhat compensated for his bad breaks and misadventures. I could biased since I liked the guy as a really underrated player (an absolute AAA monster) and as a guy who seemed to be a really nice guy. Plus when I saw him in the minors I saw him in a park with fairly small corner OFs.
Now when I see him on TV with the Braves (granted, you miss lots of things that way) he looks much better but does not look quite as good as some numbers say. Part of my disbelief could stem from my natural skepticism of defensive stats and also the opinion I formed of him as a not-great but not-bad defender when I saw him pre-eye surgery.
So who knows what to make of my opinions of the subject. I think he is a solid LF/RF on D, and I've seen him in AAA and MLB a ton but who knows. He is one of my favorite players though.
Most likely, it's just that there's more variation in the location of a ball hit into the outfield than a ball thrown to you when you're at-bat, so his depth perception wasn't as important there as his reflexes and timing - the mind can fill in a lot of the blanks there.
His defensive troubles were of the "Come in a little bit... whoops, no, that's over my head... all right, I got this... *SLAM* ... ouch, was that the wall?" variety. He still runs into walls with alarming frequency, and not with Aaron Rowand scrappy gamerness, but with "Has that wall always been there?" cluelessness. He's a lot of fun to watch.
Only passing Wright's going to do is if he manages to join the wait staff during Chipper's induction dinner. "Hey kid, pass me another beer. There's a 10-spot in it for you."
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