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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, February 04, 20082008 ZiPS Projections for Diamond Mind 9 and Microsoft Excel, Build 1.1The title is pretty explanatory. 2008 ZiPS Projections for Microsoft Excel 2/8 Update
The DMB disk has been updated with SG’s version with depth charts, plus a few new signings (Hinske, Miller, etc.) a couple of other minor league signings, Slayden moved to PHI, and projections for Ramon Nivar (256/295/331, Edgar Gonzalez (259/319/370), and John Hudgins (4.98). Remember to let me know of additional player requests!
So, what’s done here? Projections for 1036 pitchers and 1005 hitters. If you play Diamond Mind, 40-man rosters (with the exceptions of players I don’t do like whathisface from Cuba and David Price) and as many non-roster invitees as I have been able to verify are on the team, either as a non-roster invitee, an offseason minor league signing, or a carryover player not eligible for minor league free agency.
SG has provided the 2008 schedule, so that’s done.
What’s then left is making any corrections, adding any players that you wish to see projected that I can reasonably do (some 300 players here did not have projections for the team-by-team rundowns), and eventually making rosters. In particular, if any DMB players would like to contribute a manager tendencies profile, it would be a big help and save time of the odious task of whittling the 40-man rosters down and allocating playing time for sims.
To import the 2008 disk into DMB, create a new empty database, select “Restore” and choose the zip file provided.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 04, 2008 at 05:09 AM | 116 comment(s)
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I'll be setting up manager profiles/depth charts, and should have it done by the end of the week.
I mean ZiPs itself shoots out it's projections including either projected defense from this year or actual defense from last year (not exactly sure how it works). DMB uses the defensive ratings to modify what happens on each play. Is that resulting in defense counting twice?
I ask because when running seasons to see how the NL Central comes out the Cubs(good defensive team) pitchers almost always beat their projections overall and the Brewers(bad defensive team) almost always fall short and as I understand it those projections themselves already included defense so this shouldn't be happening?
I just got my very first DMB on saturday so the timing couldn't be better. All these years I've been using APBA's computer game, so I'm stoked for a change.
With all the hard work you do Dan, how can we offer some financial 'thanks'??
It doesn't quite work out this way because of how pitcher event tables are generated - the event table doesn't care about the earned runs requested at all and only cares about a pitcher's BABIP to a small degree, which I compensate for by being very conservative with my ratings. In other words, if Joe Schmo has a 3.40 ERA but his peripherals are that of a 4.60 pitcher, DMB's event table is already considering Schmo to be much closer to a 4.60 pitcher than a 3.40 ERA pitcher, not considering Schmo a 3.40 ERA pitcher and then modifying it from there with defense.
A paypal contribution to dan@baseballprimer.com or a contribution to the site as a whole by clicking the little button above the hot topics are always welcome.
Perfect, thank you
My next task is my overhaul of minor league translations - I'd really like to dump linear relationships.
A few Padre suggestions - Ramon Nivar, Edgar Gonzalez, John Hudgins. Also, I believe Jeremy Slayden is with the Phillies, not SD?
Sure!
Also, I believe Jeremy Slayden is with the Phillies, not SD?
Oops, I think I added him to SD with Sinisi.
My next task is my overhaul of minor league translations - I'd really like to dump linear relationships.
Glad to hear that...
I'll try to come up with a (partial) list of team changes as I go through this - my time is a little more limited than I'd like these days...
Of course when the alternative is Guzman...
Joe Borchard -> ATL
I think Matt Craig is still a CUB, right?
Abe Nunez (OF) -> DC
Luis Gonzalez -> FLA
Chris Aguila -> PIT
Dave Krynzel is still a Brewer, I believe.
(I figured it was just the soft spot in your heart for your favorite Orioles SS of the future)
Jeff Manship -> MIN
Josh Towers -> COL
Elizardo Ramirez -> TEX
Stephen Andrade -> back to TB
Mike Burns -> PIT
Mike Gallo -> TOR
Armando Galarraga (still TEX, supposedly about to be DET for Michael Hernandez)
I think Blake Johnson is still with KC.
Roger Deago -> TB
I think (but don't know) that Scott Tyler is still in the Marlins' org.
Not sure about Scott Tyler - I know he was a minor league free agent and I can't find any reference to him signing anywhere.
Seanez is reportedly about to rejoin LAD.
Isn't Goleski still with CLE?
Kevin Hooper has been released.
Gregorio Petit's name is reversed.
Oh - I didn't mean anything at all derogatory (or expecting changes anytime soon), just trying to help...
I didn't mean you said anything at all derogatory! Just wanted an excuse just in case someone thinks I'm excessively sloppy! Minor league transactions are a horrific pain in the ass.
Damn straight. Even BA misses 'em occasionally. I wish milb.com would keep team's offseason's rosters/transactions up-to-date, especially pre-Rule 5 time (yeah, I care about minor league R5 eligibles, what about it?).
Oh, just to be clear - I didn't think you thought I was being negative, I was just making sure we're cool. Awkwardly. :)
A few requests (thanks for Scott Patterson, by the way): Roy Corcoran (SEA), Diory Hernandez (ATL), John Raynor (FLA), and Danny Ray Herrera (TEX).
There really should be some better way of tracking minor league transactions.
Hey! He's only supposed to get 3 starts!
And, thanks, Dan. This is really cool, and I enjoy it every year.
http://www.replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/RunDMB.zip
You can, but it's a PITA and still doesn't look right.
Anyone else here using Office 08 for Mac?
Highly doubtful. It's in beta. The only reason I have a copy is that they pre-released beta to University tech staffs. I'm just saying it now because it's likely to be the same thing once 08 hits release, which is in March.
http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/zips2008.zip
If anyone sees anything on their favorite team that doesn't look right please let me know so I can make these more realistic.
team div wc p/o wins
New York Yankees 79.0% 12.0% 91.0% 98.6
New York Mets 78.5% 10.8% 89.3% 98.2
Atlanta Braves 17.5% 46.8% 64.3% 91.5
Chicago Cubs 67.8% 4.3% 72.2% 90.7
Boston Red Sox 16.5% 28.5% 45.0% 89.5
Los Angeles Angels 62.3% 3.5% 65.8% 88.9
Detroit Tigers 43.8% 10.0% 53.8% 88.0
San Diego Padres 47.5% 2.1% 49.6% 87.8
Cleveland Indians 42.3% 8.5% 50.8% 87.5
Oakland Athletics 34.8% 3.5% 38.3% 85.7
Toronto Blue Jays 4.5% 22.0% 26.5% 85.5
Arizona Diamondbacks 26.5% 8.6% 35.1% 84.8
Philadelphia Phillies 4.0% 12.6% 16.6% 84.1
Milwaukee Brewers 22.5% 6.0% 28.5% 83.9
Los Angeles Dodgers 19.5% 4.0% 23.5% 83.5
Minnesota Twins 11.3% 5.0% 16.3% 81.7
Tampa Bay Rays 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 79.4
Colorado Rockies 4.5% 2.0% 6.5% 76.8
St. Louis Cardinals 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% 76.3
Kansas City Royals 2.5% 1.0% 3.5% 75.9
Washington Nationals 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 74.8
San Francisco Giants 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 74.6
Cincinnati Reds 1.8% 0.3% 2.2% 73.0
Seattle Mariners 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 71.9
Houston Astros 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 71.7
Texas Rangers 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 71.2
Baltimore Orioles 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 70.6
Chicago White Sox 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70.0
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68.0
Florida Marlins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.1
Forget that post. Different question: is ZIPS really that much more pessimistic on the Red Sox than CAIRO? I was under the impression that ZIPS was pretty positive about the 2008 Red Sox.
I haven't compared the two projections all that closely yet, although the few I eyeballed were pretty close.
Sometimes the projections on a spreadsheet don't quite play out that way in Diamond Mind for whatever reasons.
Are you using DMB 9 with the latest patch? I have no idea what the problem could be otherwise - I've never had this happens when using restore.
Heh, half the people think I'm way too pessimistic on young players and half the people think I'm way too optimistic on young players.
I am using DMB 9c.
Oh, if it was a Vista problem, I could've helped. Vista problems are pretty easy to fix - all you have to do is insert your XP disc and follow the directions on-screen!
If true, there will be a GM opening in Seattle by the All-Star Break.
Dan, you're right, and it is always a great idea to upgrade a PC. You get better performance, wider software support, and more devices work with it! That's why more Vista users are upgrading to XP every day.
Run it before the trade, after the trade - it makes no difference, the Mariners and the Orioles both suck.
Anyone know if there is a quick and easy way to combine this spreadsheet and the PECOTA spreadsheet to compare projections and remove players that don't have projections for both systems? Any help would be appreciated...
I'll second this. Also, I've got the macro running fine, but I'm having trouble figuring out where to put the (sorry, from memory at the moment - I'm on a different computer) column_g and column_p files go for the last step. I've tried pretty much everything. I'm assuming this is how you get the &#xpl;ayoffs numbers to fill in?
And all this work is truly awesome, Dan. SG, you too. Very cool.
I haven't made it yet, but there's the issues of distributing PECOTAs... I'd either need proof of ownership, and distribute such a document by hand, or build it with the PECOTAs deleted, allowing people to paste things in later...
I'll see what I have to work with, anyway.
This is exactly what I'm also looking to do, but facing the challenge of how to delete the players that don't have projections for all 3 systems...
The columnG-ColumnP files should go in the same folder as the spreadsheet and the standings reports.
However, if people know I'm weighting PECOTA:ZiPS:CHONE as say, 4:3:2, 'project' a guy as hitting .280, and you know his CHONE is .275 and his ZiPS .283, you can pretty much reverse engineer the PECOTAs back from them, which is what I want to avoid.
(Also, CHONEs seem to be back up, which wasn't the case yesterday. Go figure.)
The only way to get around that is release a spreadsheet that has the PECOTA sheet blank, but all the formulas live. So, people who have access to PECOTAs can paste them in, and those who don't can 'settle' on ZiPS:CHONE 3:2.
Also, I can count 'this player exists' as a stat. That would allow you to filter out those who don't appear in all lists.
Not all databases show all the same stats. Some are moot, such as saves, but some, such as BFP, HBP and others aren't available in all databases. I can probably do some tricks to fill in missing stats from existing data, but we'll have to see what's missing after.
Not all database are up to date, so teams can be off. I can take a Marcel approach and say those are rare enough that regression to the mean covers the difference. Making adjustments on the fly is usually beyond what a spreadsheet should be able to do without macros. (And I use OOo, so they're probably not compatible.)
I think that would make it more likely I do the projection disk as long as people are still using their DMB.
Wow, that is good to hear. Thanks for taking the time to answer, and, as always, good stuff.
WTF do we have to do to get the #1 pick, trade Brian Roberts?
-Orioles Fans
Link
That's my work, and it's only the three systems, with everything lined up as the same columns.
And here, thanks to the work of Dan Werr (and Chris Dial), is a two-page worksheet with all the projections on equal rows. Only players projected in two or more systems are on it, because if you aren't making CHONE (2000+ hitter projections!) plus one of Marcel and ZiPS, then I don't care:
Link 2.
Use the first if you want to set up your own spreadsheet/combination. Use the second if you want everything on one. I might post my sheet with the weighted averages, but that will mostly for my own league and not much else.
I think Dial may be getting the worksheet put into database form, so I'll keep you posted on that.
And it's in Office 2003 format.
Sorry, it's just I'm still getting more e-mails for "Oh my God, why is ZiPS the most pessimistic projection system in the history of the world. Don't you love America?" than every other query about ZiPS combined.
I posted a query in the ZiPS FAQ thread...
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