BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

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Thursday, November 22, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

While the projections aren’t exactly the rosiest for 2008, there’s a lot more to like here than there was this time last year. Dayton Moore has had a lot of work to do since taking over and he will continue to have a lot to do as there was simply a lot of organizational mess to clean up from the previous regime. But Moore’s done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables and there really are good reasons to hope. Gordon will be fine in the long run, Butler’s way to a DH job is more clear with some of the leftovers now safely out of the way. Hochevar and Cortes aren’t ready yet, but should continue to develop nicely and if Greinke’s various issues are out of the way, he could beat that projection impressively. I think 3 league-average or better starting pitchers is the best ZiPS has projected in years!

As long as the Royals stay on task, keep trying out young pitchers (I projected a dozen 25-and-under hurlers and there are more in the low levels), they should find some more gems, as they did with Soria. That’s the best part about truly rebuilding - you can try out players that you’d never get a chance to see when you’re not obsessed with pulling out all the stops for an 80-win season, as was the case before Moore took over, when Baird was signing all sorts of mediocre guys, from Sanders to Elarton, with no clear organizational purpose other than “not be horrible.” By developing the team to one day actually be “good,” Moore’s likely to be a lot more effective at fulfilling Baird’s goal than Baird was. This might not be the year, but the White Sox should start looking in the rear-view mirror.


Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.284  .363  .477—————————————————————

Billy Butler             lf  22  .288  .360  .471 144 524  67 151 36  3 18  80  57  73  0  0

AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282  .354  .458—————————————————————

AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.282  .352  .460————————————————————— 

AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279  .348  .450—————————————————————

Mark Teahen*             rf  26  .279  .351  .431 161 580  87 162 35  7 13  72  62 134  9  1 

Alex Gordon*             3b  24  .264  .339  .453 160 569  71 150 39  3 21  77  53 139 16  4 

David DeJesus*           cf  28  .287  .355  .431 128 501  81 144 31  4 11  55  46  76  8  6 

Ryan Shealy              1b  28  .268  .336  .439 122 358  48  96 20  1 13  49  33 128  1  0

Ross Gload*              1b  32  .292  .332  .447  97 264  34  77 18  1  7  38  16  35  2  1 

AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276  .341  .427—————————————————————

Justin Huber             1b  25  .279  .334  .437 124 423  36 118 23  1 14  51  30  89  1  1 

Mike Sweeney             dh  34  .266  .331  .433  79 289  32  77 21  0  9  47  24  43  1  0 

Esteban German           2b  30  .284  .364  .383 120 366  62 104 19  4  3  40  42  58 16  6

AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.284  .342  .416—————————————————————

AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.279  .335  .409—————————————————————

Mark Grudzielanek        2b  38  .292  .332  .402 105 408  59 119 26  2  5  49  20  56  1  2 

Emil Brown               lf  33  .268  .332  .392 105 362  48  97 19  1  8  56  33  72  6  1 

Reggie Sanders           rf  40  .250  .323  .419  51 172  26  43 11  0  6  33  17  49  4  2 

AVERAGE C———————- c——.265  .327  .405—————————————————————

Shane Costa*             rf  26  .266  .313  .396 143 455  54 121 32  3  7  43  25  62  6  2 

John Buck                c   27  .232  .301  .394 125 401  45  93 20  0 15  53  34  98  1  2 

Joey Gathright*          cf  27  .270  .344  .328 153 482  72 130 17  4  1  38  47  83 31 15 

Craig Brazell*           1b  28  .243  .281  .421 119 432  36 105 24  1 17  60  21  95  1  1 

Mitch Maier*             cf  26  .260  .303  .384 153 580  68 151 31  4 11  61  33 103  7  5 

Jorge Padilla            rf  28  .253  .307  .338 126 438  50 111 17  1  6  41  29  84  8  5 

Chris Lubanski*          lf  23  .238  .298  .360 140 508  49 121 27  4  9  50  44 112  5  7 

Tony Pena                ss  27  .270  .294  .354 124 426  53 115 19  4  3  38  12  76  9  7 

Jason Smith*             ss  30  .241  .277  .382  92 241  29  58 10  3  6  29  11  69  4  3 

Adam Greenberg*          cf  27  .217  .318  .315 107 336  43  73 16  4  3  27  45  93  9  5 

Matt Tupman*             c   28  .246  .327  .291  97 313  25  77 11  0  1  25  36  39  2  2 

Mike Aviles              ss  27  .250  .285  .343 134 513  48 128 21  3  7  50  25  55  6  4 

Mario Lisson             3b  24  .234  .296  .326 150 531  53 124 23  1  8  50  39 117 23 12 

Angel Berroa             ss  30  .244  .285  .331 125 459  48 112 18  2  6  44  18  81  4  4 

Angel Sanchez            ss  24  .251  .297  .312 103 398  57 100 16  1  2  30  22  47  3  5 

Bill McCarthy            rf  28  .214  .266  .328 106 360  31  77 15  1  8  34  19  94  2  2 

Fernando Cortez*         2b  26  .240  .278  .295 121 434  48 104 17  2  1  29  21  70 11  4 

Paul Phillips            c   31  .217  .259  .294  91 309  30  67 12  0  4  27  16  38  1  1 

Adam Donachie            c   24  .192  .263  .279 105 333  31  64 14  0  5  25  30  91  0  0 

Derek Wathan#            3b  31  .215  .251  .293  73 242  24  52 11  1  2  20  11  41  5  2 

Richard Lewis            2b  28  .209  .258  .277 108 339  36  71 12  1  3  28  19  71  4  3 

Onil Joseph              rf  26  .230  .258  .290 126 427  38  98 11  3  3  32  15 108  6 10 

Andres Blanco#           ss  24  .217  .265  .251  76 235  20  51  6  1  0  15  13  32  2  2 

* - Bats Left

# = Switch-Hitter

Name               CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf 

Butler                  Fr          Pr    Pr 

Teahen*                       Pr    Av Pr Av 

Gordon*                 Av    Av             

DeJesus*                            Vg Vg    

Shealy                  Av                   

Gload*                  Fr          Fr    Fr 

Huber                   Fr          Fr    Fr 

Sweeney                 Pr                   

German                     Fr Fr Fr Fr Fr    

Grudzielanek               Av                

Brown                               Fr    Av 

Sanders                             Fr    Fr 

Costa*                              Av Pr Av 

Buck               Av                        

Gathright*                          Vg Av    

Brazell*                Fr          Fr       

Maier*                              Vg Av Vg 

Padilla                             Av    Vg 

Lubanski*                           Vg       

Pena                             Vg          

Smith*                     Av Av Av          

Greenberg*                          Vg Av Vg 

Tupman*            Vg                        

Aviles                     Vg Vg Av          

Lisson                  Vg    Vg Fr          

Berroa                     Fr Fr Fr          

Sanchez                          Vg          

McCarthy                            Av    Av 

Cortez*                 Vg Vg Vg    Vg Av    

Phillips           Vg                        

Donachie           Av                        

Wathan#                 Av Av Av Fr Av Fr Av 

Lewis                   Vg Vg Av    Vg       

Joseph                              Av Fr Av 

Blanco#                    Vg    Av          

Player Spotlight - Alex Gordon

Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS

Optimistic (15%)  .292  .373  .524 162 578  86 169 42  4 28 104  58 127 20  3 

Mean              .264  .339  .453 160 569  71 150 39  3 21  77  53 139 16  4   

Pessimistic (15%) .243  .307  .400 123 437  47 106 25  1 14  58  35 117  8  4  

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Eric Hinske, Grady Hatton

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Joakim Soria              24   2.83   3   1  48   0    54.0   46   17   4   12   56 

Neal Musser*              27   3.99   3   3  51   0    79.0   83   35   8   27   56 

David Riske               31   4.14   3   2  58   0    63.0   64   29   9   23   44 

Joel Peralta              32   4.26   3   2  60   0    76.0   80   36   9   20   55 

Jimmy Gobble*             26   4.29   3   3  76   0    65.0   68   31   8   22   59 

LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.41———————————————————————-

John Bale*                34   4.42   1   2  39   0    53.0   56   26   5   16   41

Gil Meche                 29   4.55   9  11  32  31   188.0  200   95  21   66  126 

Zack Greinke              24   4.76   9  10  27  27   155.0  171   82  23   40  110 

Ryan Braun                27   4.79   3   4  43   0    62.0   66   33   6   28   44 

LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.81———————————————————————-

Brian Bannister           27   4.84   8  11  26  26   147.0  167   79  18   43   75 

Leo Nunez                 24   5.17   4   6  36  10    87.0   98   50  16   27   57 

Colby Lewis               28   5.31   5   8  34  19   134.0  156   79  20   43   72 

Odalis Perez*             31   5.31   6  10  25  21   122.0  147   72  14   40   68 

Luke Hudson               31   5.33   4   6  20  12    76.0   84   45   9   34   45 

Brandon Duckworth         32   5.51   5   8  27  15    98.0  116   60  12   43   53 

Jarod Plummer             24   5.57   5  10  49   3    97.0  110   60  21   25   77 

Ben Hendrickson           27   5.62   6  11  27  23   141.0  170   88  18   61   64 

Jorge de la Rosa*         27   5.65   5  10  34  17   110.0  127   69  15   54   72 

Blake Johnson             23   5.65   5   9  30  22   129.0  161   81  18   34   52 

Matt Wright               26   5.70   6  10  25  21   128.0  149   81  19   49   75 

Billy Buckner             24   5.82   7  14  36  27   167.0  198  108  27   70   98 

John Thomson              34   5.85   3   7  16  15    80.0   99   52  11   30   40 

Carlos Rosa               23   5.93   5  11  27  25   135.0  165   89  19   62   63 

Luke Hochevar             24   5.98   5  12  31  29   170.0  200  113  31   67  112 

Roman Colon               28   6.09   1   2  17   2    34.0   42   23   6   14   20 

Dan Cortes                21   6.13   5  12  27  27   141.0  168   96  21   66   81 

Zach Day                  30   6.15   2   4  16  12    60.0   72   41   8   32   27 

Tyler Lumsden*            25   6.25   5  12  28  27   144.0  180  100  21   70   58 

Kyle Davies               24   6.41   6  14  27  27   132.0  162   94  22   61   81 

Mike Connolly*            26   6.47   4  11  29  22   135.0  168   97  25   55   65 

Julio Caesar Pimentel     22   6.69   4  11  33  16   121.0  160   90  20   65   39 

Juan Cedeno*              24   7.55   2   6  40   6    87.0  111   73  18   60   42 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Gilgamesh

                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Optimistic (15%)   3.80  13   9  35  34  211  208   89  18   64  152

Mean               4.55   9  11  32  31  188  200   95  21   66  126

Pessimistic (15%)  5.54   6  11  27  26  151  179   93  22   63   93  

Top Near-Age Comps:  Pete Vuckovich, Rick Helling

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals

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Blue Jays

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Rangers

Projections

Rays

Projections

Cardinals

Projections

Mariners

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Giants

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Padres

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Pirates

Projections

Phillies

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2007 at 03:24 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Frisco Cali Posted: November 22, 2007 at 05:02 AM (#2623198)

Angel Berroa. His candle burned out long before, um, well, let's just say he sux.

2. Greg K Posted: November 22, 2007 at 05:49 AM (#2623212)

It's funny when I play the Royals in MVP 2005
Blanco and Berroa have mediocre to awful ratings, and yet they always out-hit any all-star I bring over to the team.

That's a lot of 1b/dh types

3. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:21 AM (#2623222)

I see a 15% chance the Royals have a guy who deserves to be at the ASG for once (at least for a position player). And I agree Greinke definitely beats that (I'd say this anyways since I'm a Gerinke fanboy deep down). Bannister's regression seems fair, since he is such a strange pitcher peripherally. You have wonder what he does right to make it work for him. Somehow this pitching staff has managed to go from absurdly terrible to relatively promising in 2 years.

Godspeed, Dayton.

4. Rally Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:39 AM (#2623225)

Last year Gordon was compared to David Wright (I don't know if Dan did, but a lot of people did). Now he's got Eric Hinske for a comp.

Ouch.

5. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 22, 2007 at 07:31 AM (#2623232)

But Moore's done a good job so far cleaning out the Augean stables
Edith Hamilton would be pleased.

6. bucbeatle Posted: November 22, 2007 at 06:15 PM (#2623449)

Dan,

Just thought you would like to know that in trying to access 'past' zips posts, I was unable to get the Los Angeles Angels page, as there seems to be an extra 'http' in the web address.

Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates page is showing as page not found.

7. Honkie Kong Posted: November 22, 2007 at 07:41 PM (#2623474)

Also, the Pittsburgh Pirates page is showing as page not found.

Even the servers can't handle that anymore

8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 23, 2007 at 04:00 AM (#2623615)

Those hitters numbers look about right, but I have to be honest that the pitching numbers look much higher than I was expecting. I am expecting Meche and Bannister to regress quite a bit, but I didn't think Greinke's numbers would project that badly. Buckner and Nunez pitched better than I thought their projects merited. Ah well, I think they can outdo a lot of those projections, but they also have a lot of wild cards that could go either way - Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Hochevar. Could be a really fun season or another really awful season.

9. Paul M Hates Krispy Kreme Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:07 PM (#2623783)

How is Odalis Perez only 31?

10. Mike Green Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:41 PM (#2623799)

Lest AG#1F think about jumping from a bridge at the Hinske-Gordon comparison, it should be noted that Mike Schmidt's projection after his age 23 season in the major leagues would have been none too pretty. Hinske had his RoY campaign at age 24, but turned 25 in August that year. I still like Gordon much more than Delmon Young.

11. Boots Day Posted: November 23, 2007 at 05:53 PM (#2623804)

Richard Lewis 2b 28 .209 .258 .277

Truly the second baseman from hell.

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 23, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2623847)

Hey, Hinske was at least ROY! I think Gordo found a tough adjustment to the MLB, and he will always have high strikeout numbers, but he really turned it on the last three months and I expect a good career going forward.

13. GGIAS (aka Poster Nutbag) Posted: November 24, 2007 at 07:29 PM (#2624290)

Player Spotlight - Gilgamesh

He of the almost-perfect, perfect game? Damn that Mike the Mouth!!!

14. Snuffy Posted: November 24, 2007 at 10:11 PM (#2624356)

Will Kyle Davies live up to former expectations. Does he still have the potential to be a decent #3/#4 starter?

15. BeanoCook Posted: November 25, 2007 at 05:58 AM (#2624509)

Last year Gordon was compared to David Wright (I don't know if Dan did, but a lot of people did). Now he's got Eric Hinske for a comp.

Ouch.

I think this is one player where the scouts will blow away the stats. Gordon is the read deal, stats have a real problem projecting a guy that skipped a level with little else to project from.

Gordon will be way over.

16. Mike Webber Posted: November 25, 2007 at 04:46 PM (#2624636)

Dan, if you threw out April and May for Gordon what would his projection be?

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 25, 2007 at 04:58 PM (#2624646)

Without April and May, Gordon goes up to 279/356/475. I wouldn't do that, because as humans we too often throw out data when it seems to fit with a narrative. When fixing up translations a few years ago, I found no initial month translation penalty - minor leaguers play just as well in month 1 in the majors as they have in later months.

18. Mike Webber Posted: November 25, 2007 at 06:32 PM (#2624698)

I think you're right Dan, its easy to throw out what you don't want to admit to, like I was pretty good on my diet at Thanksgiving other than that second helping of stuffing and that 2nd 1/2 slice of pie.

In this case however there was something with his swing that they were definitely they were working hard on at the end of the spring training and through April, so I think the odds he beats the projections are pretty good. Even still it just goes to show you throw out a .173 April and .195 May the projection only gains about 40 points of OPS.

19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 29, 2007 at 01:39 AM (#2627648)

I don't know if you do this Dan, but could you project Soria as a starter? There are rumblings some want to make him a starter. I wasn't sure if that would change his projections, or if that's too difficult to project or what. I know he doesn't have much of a minor league track record to go on.

But he threw a perfect game in the Mexican League! Use that as a data point!

20. JPWF13

Posted: November 29, 2007 at 03:09 AM (#2627698)

I found no initial month translation penalty - minor leaguers play just as well in month 1 in the majors as they have in later months.

really?
Even with guys like Gordon and Kouzmanoff???
BUt then again guys who aren't rookies sometimes have absurdly bad months- like Dioner Navvarro and Lugo in 2007....

I have a sneaking suspicion that soemtimes when a player's stats are being warped by an absurdly BAD stretch- Like Navarro's May or Lugo's June and such player has shown himself to be an MLB player and later his bat recovers- projections may be more accurate if that absurd stretch is thrown out-

I don't mean a garden variety slump- I mean when a batter hits like a pitcher or worse for 100-150 ABs- when I see that I tend to assume that something was going on, maybe an injury or other issue and absent a lingering injury issue- that skunk stretch should be ignored

21. Dizzypaco Posted: November 29, 2007 at 04:08 AM (#2627753)

Its worth looking at what Gordon did again last year, month by month. He struggled a lot in April and May, as has been said. What has been implied by a lot of the comments was that he was solid the rest of the year, so we should throw out the first two months.

But what really happened is that he had a really good June, and then was very mediocre the second half of the season. Specifically, he became much more aggressive, and almost completely stopped drawing walks. This helped him raise his slugging percentage pretty dramatically, but didn't actually make him a good hitter. I don't think this a real good sign for the future. He may turn into a good player, but I don't think you can project stardom at this point. Dan's projection seems pretty reasonable to me.

22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 30, 2007 at 03:17 AM (#2628766)

Request for Paul Mildren, please.

23. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 30, 2007 at 03:38 AM (#2628784)

Mildren: 5-12, 6.13, 144 IP, 169 H, 22 HR, 73 BB, 79 K.

Hope you don't mind me not updating the preformatted text above, it's really a pain doing that since expression engine editing screen isn't a fixed-width font! He'll appear in all future spreadsheets and such, though.

24. RollingWave Posted: January 06, 2008 at 06:52 AM (#2661541)

What's the ZIPs outlook for Chin-Hui Tsao? any chance of being healthy?

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Thursday, November 22, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

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