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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, November 15, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers
Two years into his stint with the Dodgers, Ned Colletti still hasn’t shown that he understands the strengths and weakness of the team and has never shown the slightest sign that he makes player moves with any regard to any kind of plan, whether short-term, or long-term, or even good or bad. Like a 6-year-old bawling in a grocery store, Colitis sees familiar brand names and bright shiny colors, and stale gum in fancy-looking machines, and wants wants WANTS it NOW NOW NOW. The Juan Pierre signing was bad on so many levels - he misidentified a need, got a player that wouldn’t fix that need even if it did exist, and then he paid that player as if that player was not only capable of filling that non-existent need, but actually contributing even more. And now the rumors are that Pierre’s going to move to left, making him even less valuable to the team. If Johan Santana is really available for Kemp and another prospect, the Dodgers might as well pull the trigger now and let the kid have a career.
It really is a shame. Dan Evans did a wonderful job putting together a top-notch player development plan. DePodesta kept it in place and added some of the most valuable players on the Dodgers, two years after his departure in Penny, Lowe, and Kent. The Dodgers have resources and should be one of the teams challenging the Mets and Padres as the best in the league in 2008.
Joe Torre’s in no danger of being remembered for his stint with the Dodgers, luckily for him. Just imagine how history would have been different if Colletti became the Yankees’ GM in the mid-90s. “Jeter who? Kevin Elster’s a free agent! I ain’t turning over the closer job to some Marinara Rivera guy, get me Jeff Shaw’s phone number!”
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Matt Kemp rf 23 .303 .348 .483 158 557 88 169 34 6 18 77 37 118 19 7
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.280 .361 .472—————————————————————
James Loney* 1b 24 .296 .350 .470 162 558 69 165 37 6 16 86 46 81 4 2
Andre Ethier* lf 26 .288 .357 .459 161 514 72 148 32 4 16 71 52 94 2 5
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.279 .352 .463—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.278 .350 .465—————————————————————
Russell Martin c 25 .280 .365 .432 159 535 86 150 32 2 15 78 68 79 13 8
Jeff Kent 2b 40 .268 .352 .444 109 396 58 106 26 1 14 61 47 61 1 2
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.276 .346 .445—————————————————————
Andy LaRoche 3b 24 .256 .343 .431 130 441 53 113 24 1 17 60 56 76 5 4
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.273 .339 .422—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.278 .340 .411—————————————————————
John Lindsey 1b 31 .253 .322 .438 87 297 33 75 17 1 12 49 22 67 1 0
Rafael Furcal# ss 30 .276 .346 .387 154 631 101 174 26 7 10 55 68 83 29 9
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.276 .333 .404—————————————————————
AVERAGE C——————— c——.262 .325 .405—————————————————————
Mark Sweeney* 1b 38 .246 .340 .377 73 122 17 30 7 0 3 16 15 30 1 0
Nomar Garciaparra 3b 34 .268 .329 .384 96 354 43 95 17 0 8 50 30 29 1 0
Olmedo Saenz 1b 37 .231 .311 .413 57 104 12 24 7 0 4 18 9 25 0 0
Luis Gonzalez* lf 40 .244 .326 .384 133 438 60 107 26 1 11 51 49 55 2 1
Shea Hillenbrand 1b 32 .270 .316 .388 116 433 54 117 19 1 10 51 18 86 1 1
Marshall McDougall 3b 29 .255 .299 .421 77 271 28 69 16 1 9 42 17 52 1 1
Delwyn Young# rf 26 .255 .295 .408 152 595 71 152 43 3 14 74 32 130 3 3
Mike Lieberthal c 36 .247 .309 .374 59 174 19 43 10 0 4 20 11 17 0 0
Tony Abreu 2b 23 .267 .313 .362 124 450 57 120 26 4 3 37 24 66 4 2
Juan Pierre* cf 30 .277 .318 .347 157 657 88 182 25 9 1 40 33 41 47 14
Jason Repko cf 27 .235 .297 .396 105 260 41 61 14 2 8 30 19 67 7 4
Chin-lung Hu ss 24 .260 .302 .375 142 550 67 143 26 5 9 43 32 64 9 6
Luis Maza 2b 28 .238 .289 .358 108 369 42 88 16 2 8 39 22 65 1 1
Kevin Howard* 3b 27 .244 .292 .343 120 435 45 106 18 2 7 44 27 74 6 3
Wilson Valdez ss 30 .243 .298 .311 125 415 56 101 18 2 2 28 31 54 12 6
Choo Freeman cf 28 .226 .289 .327 91 266 28 60 8 2 5 26 21 73 2 2
Ivan DeJesus ss 21 .235 .298 .283 134 477 51 112 15 1 2 35 41 83 10 6
Ramon Martinez 2b 35 .231 .294 .264 44 91 10 21 3 0 0 12 8 11 0 0
Chad Moeller c 33 .195 .254 .292 68 185 15 36 6 0 4 17 13 52 0 0
Blake Dewitt* 3b 22 .206 .249 .307 140 548 41 113 20 1 11 43 31 99 2 5
Ken Huckaby c 37 .202 .222 .227 63 198 9 40 5 0 0 13 4 52 1 0
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Kemp Vg Fr Vg
Loney* Av Av
Ethier* Vg Av
Martin Av
Kent Av Fr
LaRoche Av Av
Lindsey Av Fr
Furcal# Av
Sweeney* Fr Fr
Garciaparra Av Fr
Saenz Pr Pr
Gonzalez* Av
The Egalitarian Av Pr
McDougall Av Fr Av
Young# Fr Pr
Lieberthal Av
Abreu Av Av Fr
Pierre* Av
Repko Vg Vg Vg
Hu Vg Vg
Maza Fr Av Av
Howard* Av Fr Fr
Valdez Vg Vg Vg
Freeman Vg Pr
DeJesus Av Av
Martinez Fr Fr Pr
Moeller Fr
Dewitt* Av
Huckaby Vg
Player Spotlight - Matt Kemp
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .323 .374 .539 162 557 102 180 38 8 22 95 43 106 25 6
Mean .303 .348 .483 158 557 88 169 34 6 18 77 37 118 19 7
Pessimistic (15%) .282 .323 .427 128 440 61 124 23 4 11 49 26 104 11 7
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Al Cowens, Terry Puhl
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Takashi Saito 38 2.05 4 1 66 0 66.0 48 15 5 18 80
Jonathan Broxton 24 2.91 6 2 91 0 96.0 80 31 8 29 115
Brad Penny 30 3.82 12 9 33 33 200.0 204 85 16 61 142
Joe Beimel* 31 3.95 3 2 73 0 73.0 75 32 5 25 42
Derek Lowe 35 3.99 14 11 34 33 210.0 216 93 22 58 135
Chad Billingsley 23 4.00 12 9 31 31 180.0 174 80 19 78 154
Eric Hull 28 4.00 3 3 54 0 72.0 68 32 7 32 66
Jason Schmidt 35 4.08 9 8 19 19 119.0 112 54 12 50 113
Rudy Seanez 39 4.15 4 4 61 0 65.0 63 30 8 28 67
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.28———————————————————————-
Hong-chih Kuo* 26 4.38 5 4 33 10 78.0 74 38 9 33 80
Scott Proctor 31 4.65 5 5 79 0 93.0 91 48 16 39 84
LEAGUE-AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.69———————————————————————-
Esteban Loaiza 36 4.89 8 10 22 22 127.0 138 69 18 43 90
Roberto Hernandez 43 4.92 3 3 56 0 53.0 57 29 6 29 37
Mark Hendrickson* 34 4.94 7 9 32 21 142.0 158 78 17 48 94
Jonathan Meloan 23 5.00 3 5 48 1 72.0 69 40 14 32 76
Randy Wolf* 31 5.03 5 6 17 17 93.0 99 52 14 42 75
Eric Stults* 28 5.14 7 11 29 24 147.0 163 84 21 57 103
D.J. Houlton 28 5.15 7 9 35 22 138.0 149 79 23 53 97
Spike Lundberg 31 5.40 6 9 32 16 120.0 139 72 18 46 68
David Wells* 45 5.46 6 10 24 24 140.0 172 85 22 35 77
Brian Akin 26 5.59 3 4 46 1 87.0 91 54 14 52 73
Luis Gonzalez* 25 5.64 3 6 45 0 59.0 59 37 6 52 45
Scott Elbert* 22 5.74 7 14 16 15 80.0 80 51 13 58 69
Greg Miller* 23 5.96 2 4 43 9 77.0 75 51 8 84 64
Mark Alexander 27 6.16 2 6 55 0 76.0 82 52 17 44 68
William Juarez 27 6.28 5 11 27 19 116.0 138 81 22 55 64
Rick Bauer 31 6.29 3 6 50 5 83.0 95 58 18 44 61
Justin Orenduff 25 6.50 4 10 23 21 101.0 117 73 25 47 81
Mike Megrew* 24 6.56 3 8 22 16 85.0 96 62 16 60 59
Zach Hammes 24 6.75 3 9 36 11 108.0 131 81 24 51 66
Clayton Kershaw* 20 7.69 4 9 24 22 96.0 103 82 17 62 80
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Chad Billingsley
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.27 16 8 34 34 201 178 73 16 82 184
Mean 4.00 12 9 31 31 180 174 80 19 78 154
Pessimistic (15%) 4.78 8 10 26 26 145 151 77 19 75 117
Top Near-Age Comps: Gary Nolan, Jim Palmer
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:10 AM | 40 comment(s)
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1. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: November 15, 2007 at 05:34 AM (#2615433)It's also his contract year, so yeah.
Interesting that Martin's BA/SLG/ISOd projections are virtually identical from 2007 to 2008. ZIPS must not really be a believer in his power spike.
That's what a lot of Diamondbacks fans were saying last offseason.
It's called the "LoDuca Power Spike" rule. OK, OK, so I'm a Martin believer.
True, but Loney, Martin, Kemp and Billingsley all blew away their ZIPs projections from 2007. Ethier was the only one that got significant playing time and was right around the ZIPs projections.
So they can only get better, you say? Sounds like a Mets fan's argument about why Reyes was going to win the NL MVP in 2007, given his 2006 season... Incidentally, I believe both Quentin and Drew blew away their ZIPS projections in 2006 once they got called up. I blame ZIPS, of course.
No I never said that. Looking at it closer, the only real qualms I have are Martin's slg projections and Billingsley's era projection.
Everything else looks about right. Alot more conservative than Bill James' projections but not as low as CHONE's so far.
Bill J's projections seem to love the young players a little much.
This is very unfortunate. So many wasted and misused resources.
(Don't answer that question)
Seriously though, what's wrong with going into 2008 with an Ethier, Pierre, Kemp outfield? (It's obvious whats wrong with that, but there's nothing the Dodgers can really do about it)
Well, two separate issues. If that is the outfield, then Pierre should be in left. His offense is the same no matter where he plays, and since he has ok or above range still but a pathetic arm, he would play defensively best in left.
The problem is that Repko and Young should be rated above him, much less any free agent outfielders they sign.
"Humiliations galore!"
From a PR perspective, it's better to be aggressive in the young player predictions. If the young players DON'T meet the projections, you can almost always blame lack of playing time (because they'll usually get benched if they're really struggling). If the young player is beating the projection, they'll keep getting PT, reinforcing how smart you are.
The issue is that I'm guessing that Dan's predictions are really "mean" predictions and for for good, young players, the distribution of possible outcomes is probably positively skewed, i.e. there is a long right-hand tail of good things compared to a fairly short left hand tail of bad things that can happen. If he did median predictions, they would be even more conservative.
For older players, there's a lot more data, so their projection distribution is going to look much more symmetric and normally distributed.
Absolutely! And he was coping well with reducing payroll. McCourt treated him badly.
the unfairly maligned and ungraciously ejected DePodesta
Those who gain by the ungracious ejection often end up getting ungraciously ejected themselves.
Really, though, I don't think McCourt has a clue about whom he wants to run his team or to what end. He just looks for the latest fashion, like those nerdy kids who go to nightclubs instead of sitting in their garages doing hard work with baseball statistics.
As a Sox fan the decline of what used to be one of the game most exciting players greatly saddens me, along with the fact that he never got to share in the Sox's 2 World Series. Sic Transit Gloria Mundi.
Unless DePo undermined Evans, this isn't fair to DePo.
Of course, Evans being packed off wasn't really DePo's fault.
The thing about DePodesta's stint is that while not everything worked out, like Jose Valentin as a stopgap 3rd baseman, his wrong moves never got in the way of the team's future.
All in all, DePodesta was given exactly one single offseason to implement a long-term plan.
Yes, but the problem is that by all appearances Colitis doesn't realize it-
If the Twins and the Marlins play their hands correctly they can really re-tool this offseason at the Dodger's expense.
I can't remember where I read it, but allegedly someone in the Dodger's org. (Colitis himself?) wants Logan White out- if that happens and Colitis really is behind it, I think just about every thinking Dodgers fan may take a vacation from the team.
I think it is runs created per game.
Actually, the closer position was turned over to a rookie during Colletti's reign. Granted that was more Little's decision than Colletti's. But he did sign Saito.
Also, wow. Did Loney run over ZIPS' dog or something?
Bill J's projections seem to love the young players a little much.
I was just talking to Levski about this the other day in the context of his Mark Reynolds projection
.294/.369/.537 .905 OPS YOWZA
Some of James other projections for Young Dodgers
Kemp .322/.365/.508 .873 OPS
Ethier .304/.371/.477 .847 OPS
Martin .292/.379/.456 .835 OPS
Laroche .275/.367/.458 .825 OPS
Loney .302/.359/.465 .823 OPS
Interesting that he has Loney doing worse in terms of OPS than the other 4. Loney's is the only projection about on par with Dan's...the rest of course much more optimistic.
all I can say is................GO DAN!!
1. Can they get Pierre out of the lineup and use both Kemp and Ethier? (FA-A.Jones/T.Hunter?)
2. Will LaRoche get a shot to start at 3B? If so, can he match these Zips numbers??
3. How healthy will the bottom part of the rotation be? (Schmidt and Guo)
vr, Xeifrank
Loney was actually quite bad in Las Vegas this year - Chone and I both have that stint translated as a sub-.600 OPS. His 2005 Jacksonville numbers also left much to be desired (translation of 250/316/366).
Still, this is a test for Colletti -- let's see how long it takes them to cut bait on Pierre. If anything happens this offseason, I suspect it will be something like Pierre and a boatload of money ($20 M?) to the Marlins for pretty much nothing.
I think I mentioned this in the Hunter to LAD thread (Rosenthal's pontification article), but the Dodgers might as well see if they can include Pierre in a package for Miguel Cabrera. Basically the Dodgers would have to send a bolus of cash to FLA to cover most of Pierre's contract, but that solves FLA's need for a centerfielder (sort of), and probably allows the Dodgers to retain Kemp. A package of LaRoche, Billingsley, Pierre and a lot of cash for Cabrera should get the deal done.
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