BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2008 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, October 13, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

Presenting your 2008 NL West Cellar Dweller! I think the biggest question for the Bay Area Bomberless is whether or not they’re the worst team in the NL next season.

The Giants have some nice young pitching depth, mostly fairly young, led by the Citizen and the Link. They’ll probably be among the best teams in ERA again, and have some more arms for the bullpen in the minors if anybody “goes Wohlers” in 2008. The main problem of the team is fairly obvious - they’re letting the guy with the 1.000 OPS go and still have an old team in which nobody’s a good bet to be average and very little on the farm that could change that. I think that the Giants would have trouble finishing above the middle-of-the-pack in runs if they played in the PCL and the fact that Lance Niekro, a 1B who hits like a hacktastic 2B, is the 2nd-best projection non-Bonds hitter is really, really sad. I think I’d trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I’d trust Sabes to build my offense.

I guess the Giants could sign A-Rod and Rowand and merely have a bad offense, but this is a team that has a general manager who loves to brag about how, for the price he passed on Vlad, he managed to snag 5, count ‘em, 5 mediocre players.


Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

Barry Bonds*             lf  43  .256  .456  .518 112 309  62  79 15  0 22  53 109  47  3  0 

AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.279  .357  .457—————————————————————

AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277  .349  .439—————————————————————

AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277  .346  .440—————————————————————

AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.274  .343  .431—————————————————————

Randy Winn#              rf  34  .282  .338  .429 142 543  71 153 37  2 13  52  42  75  9  5 

AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.272  .336  .413—————————————————————

AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.276  .337  .402—————————————————————

Lance Niekro             1b  29  .269  .312  .442  85 249  28  67 12  2  9  36  15  41  0  1

Nate Schierholtz*        lf  24  .279  .315  .430 139 488  47 136 28  5 12  52  20  75  5  3 

AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274  .329  .395—————————————————————

Dave Roberts*            lf  36  .266  .339  .372 110 398  60 106 16 10  2  30  42  56 28  5 

Fred Lewis*              lf  27  .255  .338  .384 121 411  64 105 19  5  8  41  48  93 13  6 

AVERAGE C——————— c——.260  .321  .390—————————————————————

Ryan Klesko*             lf  37  .242  .336  .370 104 330  45  80 19  1  7  37  46  58  2  1 

Rich Aurilia             1b  36  .262  .314  .398  79 279   4  73 15  1  7  32  20  38  0  0 

Ray Durham#              2b  36  .242  .319  .382 120 421  54 102 22  2 11  55  46  61  5  1 

Dan Ortmeier#            cf  27  .255  .306  .407 134 447  54 114 23  3 13  53  30  95 11  6 

Eliezer Alfonzo          c   29  .259  .300  .410 108 351  37  91 18  1 11  40  15  88  1  1 

Justin Leone             3b  31  .233  .319  .375 110 373  43  87 18  1 11  41  44  87  6  2 

Bengie Molina            c   33  .267  .300  .403 107 390  32 104 15  1 12  49  17  42  0  1 

Eugenio Velez#           cf  26  .271  .315  .398 117 399  55 108 19  7  6  38  23  69 32 14 

Kevin Frandsen           2b  26  .271  .322  .367 123 387  52 105 23  1  4  36  21  33  6  5 

Rajai Davis#             cf  27  .263  .325  .357 124 414  57 109 21  3  4  28  34  65 28 11 

Eddy Martinez-Esteve     lf  24  .233  .304  .375  84 283  36  66 20  1  6  32  27  48  1  1 

Guillermo Rodriguez      c   30  .233  .292  .375  63 176  21  41 10  0  5  23  13  34  2  0 

William Bergolla         2b  25  .264  .303  .353 108 382  45 101 21  2  3  28  19  46  7  3 

Pedro Feliz              3b  33  .239  .282  .382 139 519  57 124 25  2 15  63  31  84  0  1 

Travis Ishikawa*         1b  24  .218  .279  .387 108 362  28  79 18  2 13  42  28 112  0  0 

Justin Knoedler          c   27  .241  .297  .360  96 303  32  73 22  1  4  29  23  77  3  2 

Scott McClain            1b  36  .225  .280  .381 118 409  35  92 19  0 15  53  29  85  1  1 

Ivan Ochoa#              ss  25  .249  .307  .324  98 309  35  77 13  2  2  20  22  56 10  5 

Omar Vizquel#            ss  41  .249  .314  .308 130 478  55 119 17  4  1  38  42  52 13  6 

Ben Copeland*            lf  24  .235  .303  .320 116 422  49  99 21  3  3  37  40  72 10 10 

Luis Figueroa#           2b  34  .252  .291  .324  87 318  35  80 15  1  2  26  15  26  2  4 

Todd Jennings            c   26  .217  .249  .283 116 396  36  86 17  0  3  32  13  66  2  1

* - Bats Left

# = Switch-Hitter

Name               CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf 

Bonds*                              Fr       

Winn#                               Av Vg Av 

Niekro                  Vg                   

Schierholtz*                              Av 

Roberts*                            Vg Fr    

Lewis*                              Av Fr Av 

Klesko*                 Vg          Fr    Fr 

Aurilia                 Av Av Av Fr          

Durham#                    Fr                

Ortmeier#               Av          Av Pr Fr 

Alfonzo            Av                        

Leone                   Av Fr Av Pr Vg Pr Vg 

Molina             Fr                        

Velez#                     Pr       Vg Vg    

Frandsen                   Av Av Fr Av    Av 

Davis#                              Vg Ex    

Martinez-Esteve                     Fr    Fr 

Rodriguez          Av                        

Bergolla                   Av                

B.D.C.                  Av    Ex    Av       

Ishikawa*               Av                   

Knoedler           Av                        

McClain                 Av    Fr             

Ochoa#                           Av          

Vizquel#                         Ex          

Copeland*                           Av Fr Av 

Figueroa#                  Vg Vg Av          

Jennings           Av                        

Player Spotlight - Pedro Feliz

Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS

Optimistic (15%)  .270  .317  .450 160 596  80 161 33  4 22  91  41  89  1  1 

Mean              .239  .282  .382 139 519  57 124 25  2 15  63  31  84  0  1   

Pessimistic (15%) .217  .251  .332  91 337  31  73 13  1  8  31  16  60  2  0 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Gary Gaetti, Vinny Castilla

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Tim Lincecum              24   3.28  10   5  29  29   173.0  146   63  13   67  173 

Brian Wilson              26   3.43   4   3  57   0    63.0   57   24   3   28   49 

Matt Cain                 23   3.63  14  10  34  33   206.0  186   83  18   76  173 

Scott Atchison            32   3.65   2   2  47   1    69.0   70   28   5   16   44 

Kevin Correia             27   3.68   5   3  56   5    93.0   88   38   8   35   74 

Barry Zito*               30   3.99  13  12  34  34   210.0  193   93  22   90  159 

Brad Hennessey            28   4.01   4   4  71   0    83.0   82   37   9   32   49 

Vinnie Chulk              29   4.03   4   3  62   0    67.0   65   30   7   24   53

AVERAGE RELIEVER——————- 4.07———————————————————————- 

Osiris Matos              23   4.27   4   4  54   0    78.0   83   37   9   18   47 

Noah Lowry*               27   4.32  11  12  30  30   179.0  183   86  19   73  112 

Jack Taschner*            30   4.36   4   4  68   0    66.0   62   32   7   31   62 

Steve Kline*              35   4.41   2   3  67   0    51.0   54   25   4   24   29 

AVERAGE STARTER———————4.46———————————————————————-

Justin Hedrick            26   4.50   5   5  53   0    78.0   78   39  10   34   56 

Dan Giese                 31   4.68   3   4  49   0    73.0   81   38  11   15   45 

Randy Messenger           26   4.73   3   5  69   0    78.0   85   41   8   33   49 

Jonathan Sanchez*         25   4.77   4   6  40  18   115.0  120   61  16   44   96 

Tyler Walker              32   4.78   3   4  49   0    49.0   52   26   7   20   37 

Pat Misch*                26   4.96   6   9  36  21   156.0  176   86  23   40   92 

Chris Begg                28   5.06   7  11  25  24   160.0  194   90  20   29   60 

Bill Sadler               26   5.08   2   4  56   0    62.0   60   35   8   35   58 

Brian Anderson            25   5.12   2   3  57   0    65.0   72   37  11   21   47 

Erick Threets*            26   5.24   1   3  49   1    67.0   70   39   6   42   39 

Scott Munter              28   5.26   3   4  59   0    65.0   78   38   5   28   18 

Nick Pereira              25   5.29   6  11  26  26   143.0  158   84  20   65   85 

Sun-Woo Kim               30   5.39   5   9  26  18   122.0  144   73  17   38   62 

Travis Blackley*          25   5.74   6  14  30  30   171.0  197  109  30   64   83 

Jesse Foppert             27   5.77   2   4  19  16    64.0   69   41   8   46   44 

Matt Kinney               31   5.80   6  13  28  25   152.0  178   98  31   57   95 

Russ Ortiz                34   5.97   4   8  23  17    95.0  110   63  14   52   48 

Merkin Valdez             26   6.00   3   7  32  12    90.0  102   60  15   51   64 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Tim Lincecum

                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Optimistic (15%)   2.58  14   4  34  34  206  156   59  11   72  230   

Mean               3.28  10   5  29  29  173  146   63  13   67  173

Pessimistic (15%)  4.17   6   6  24  24  138  130   64  13   65  126

Top Near-Age Comps:  Jim Maloney, Kerry Wood

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Nationals Projections

Blue Jays Projections

Rangers Projections

Rays Projections

Cardinals Projections

Mariners Projections

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 13, 2007 at 04:56 PM | 35 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: October 13, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2574586)

That's some awful offense, but really good pitching. Any chance of Lowry/Cain/Lincecum being traded for a bat or two?

2. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 13, 2007 at 05:44 PM (#2574589)

That is an ugly, ugly, offense. But hey, at least Lincecum and Cain are pretty sweet.

3. Darren

Posted: October 13, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2574596)

The offense is bad but the pitching is good.

(We're all supposed to say that, right?)

4. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 13, 2007 at 05:59 PM (#2574600)

The sentiment out in SF seems to be that the team is going to see what they can bring in for Lowry. Despite the solid projection, I don't think they could get anything to insert in the 2008 lineup and receive significant production from. I would be very surprised if either Cain or Lincecum were dealt.

5. Thrakkus Rex Posted: October 13, 2007 at 06:18 PM (#2574610)

I don't know if it would change these numbers, but Rajai Davis hits exclusively right-handed now.

6. Rafael Bellylard: The Grinch of Orlando. Posted: October 13, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2574618)

Assuming the Giants don't add a power hitter, they may not have anyone who hits as many as 20 HR's. That's just plain scary.

7. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: October 13, 2007 at 06:26 PM (#2574619)

Yay! Sweet Pitching!

Ugh.... awful, awful, awful hitting. And Bonds is the one who needs to go! Yeah, great job, Sabean.

Basically, anyone not named Lincecum or Cain could be dealt for hitting, with Noah Lowry and Jonathan Sanchez at the top of the list. The rotation will likely be Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Correia, and one of the guys who doesn't get traded. Nice.

I don't know what the ERAs for a league-average 4th and 5th starter in AT&T;are, but Lowry's optimistic projection makes him a 2 or 3, Sanchez is probably a 4 or 5, Misch a 5, and even Begg probably a 5. Everyone but Lowry in that group is at the minimum.

Sanchez has the best raw potential - LHP, FB up to mid-90s, hard-breaking slider, occasional change. Sanchez's biggest problem is throwing strikes. His control takes a vacation for stretches, and he just looks lost.

I would like to see Lowry go. He's smoke and mirrors out there, like Kirk Rueter with more walks at this point. Also, 73 BB and 112 K in 179 IP for Lowry? 2005 Lowry is gone and isn't coming back. That said, he's a Proven Veteran at this point, and that 14-8, 3.92 ERA this year is going to look mighty good to a bunch of GMs out there, some of which probably won't even look at the 1.55 WHIP, let alone anything more advanced. Unfortunately, Sabean is one of those GMs. Still, what would Lowry fetch? Not enough to turn the team around.

Watch Brian Wilson. He was already a well-regarded, fairly young hard thrower, but his ability to throw strikes was suspect. This year, though, he learned a cutter, and it seems to have helped with the nibbling. He comes with a FB at 96 or so and a cutter at about 91.

Thanks Szym - I also like the "B.D.C." for Feliz in the defensive ratings. Brain-Dead Caribbean hacking at slop, anyone?

8. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 13, 2007 at 06:31 PM (#2574627)

Regarding Sanchez, I believe he is going under the knife although I'm not sure for what part of his arm. He should be ready to go for Spring Training, but he's not getting traded for anything.

9. Walt Davis Posted: October 13, 2007 at 08:11 PM (#2574685)

Are the pitching projections defense-independent? If so, that's a lot of above-average pitching backed by what could be a well above-average defense.

10. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 13, 2007 at 08:23 PM (#2574689)

Walt, how do you figure the defense to be well above-average? Feliz could be a goner, nobody else in the infield would seem to be well above-average. The outfield will benefit from missing Bonds, and Winn is probably good in a corner, but unless Andruw Jones comes to town, I don't see it being a stellar outfield. Davis has the wheels for center, but I have heard that his routes are subpar and he is not a particularly good defender.

11. Walt Davis Posted: October 13, 2007 at 11:46 PM (#2574763)

well, by Dan's ratings, you've got "excellent" at SS and 3B and "very good" at 1B with average at 2B. The likely OF is mainly a mix of average, very good and an excellent. Now, that lineup won't score any runs and the Giants might try to sneak the "better" hitters into the lineup in an attempt to score 3.2 runs per game rather than 3 :-), but there's the core of a well above-average defense there.

Or Dan's defensive ratings are poopy. :-)

12. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 14, 2007 at 12:07 AM (#2574768)

Davis had a good reputation in the minors and excellent defensive numbers in the majors. I may have been too hasty to give him an EX, but I think objectively, he's a VG at least.

13. St.Philly Posted: October 14, 2007 at 03:27 AM (#2575316)

What kind of range could you predict Winehouse to have in CF if she thought the ball was a bag of coke?

14. Miko Supports Shane's Spam Habit Posted: October 14, 2007 at 04:02 AM (#2575440)

Would this be a likely place for A-Rod if he opts out?

15. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 14, 2007 at 04:34 AM (#2575569)

First, I didn't even realize those fielding assessments were there and that is what Walt was basing his statement on. I just skimmed right from the hitting projections down to the pitching. I'm skeptical, but I also don't like the Giants, so that probably plays a part.

As for A-Rod, I wouldn't call SF likely, but I think the team would be interested. Sabean was asked about A-Rod on the radio recently, and his non-answer still seemed to indicate that the team would hope to be involved. If the numbers get anywhere near what Boras is angling for, I think they will be out of it soon. The Giants need the Yankees to really stay out of things if he hits free agency in order to have a shot.

16. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 14, 2007 at 04:58 AM (#2575649)

A few years ago, the Giants probably could have gotten a young star for Lowry, but not anymore. I think the vast majority of GMs do know about things like WHIP and K-rate now. They could get Adam Dunn for him, but that wouldn't help, it would just almost replace Bonds.

17. Phil Coorey. Posted: October 15, 2007 at 09:42 AM (#2576847)

I think I'd trust Amy Winehouse to guard my bag of coke before I'd trust Sabes to build my offense.

Nice

18. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:21 AM (#2576849)

They could get Adam Dunn for him, but that wouldn't help, it would just almost replace Bonds.

Adam Dunn would be a massive upgrade over whoever plays LF this year.

19. rfloh Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:37 AM (#2576852)

Davis has the wheels for center, but I have heard that his routes are subpar and he is not a particularly good defender.

Are you thinking of Fred Lewis?

From what I've seen of Davis, and heard about him, the issue is his offense. If he can put up a 350 OBP, he would be an acceptable starter.

20. The District Attorney Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:40 AM (#2576858)

What kind of range could you predict Winehouse to have in CF if she thought the ball was a bag of coke?

One scout reports that "I know that she's no good."

21. Russ Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:48 AM (#2576859)

What's even scarier about the offensive projections is how old the Giants "prospects" are. It's ironic that Barry Bonds went to the Giants after leaving Pittsburgh, because both of these teams look startlingly similar, except the Pirates have Jason Bay and Adam LaRoche and the Giants managed to get better pitchers despite drafting lower and fewer of them.

22. zenbitz Posted: October 15, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2577111)

From what I've seen of Davis, and heard about him, the issue is his offense. If he can put up a 350 OBP, he would be an acceptable starter.

And if a frog had wings it wouldn't bump it's ass a-hoppin'.

23. Floyd Thursby Posted: October 15, 2007 at 10:29 PM (#2577548)

Regarding Sanchez, I believe he is going under the knife although I'm not sure for what part of his arm.

He's healthy. He was hoping to pitch in Puerto Rico this winter, but there isn't a league in Puerto Rico this year.

24. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: October 15, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2577574)

Assuming the Giants don't add a power hitter, they may not have anyone who hits as many as 20 HR's.

Pedro Feliz is a pretty good bet to hit 20 homers... assuming he gets 600 to 650 at bats.

It would be an upset if the Giants are not dead last in runs scored next season.

25. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: October 16, 2007 at 07:48 AM (#2579067)

He's healthy. He was hoping to pitch in Puerto Rico this winter, but there isn't a league in Puerto Rico this year.

He's still looking for one, though. He could get into a series of pickup games in Ponce with some little kids and old guys, with RF closed, but that would only help if he gets to pitch against the Giants next year.

26. BFFB

Posted: October 16, 2007 at 10:48 AM (#2579078)

I take it San Francisco don't trust the maxim that offense is better than defense, because they are going to be relying a heck of alot on defense.

27. a wider scope of derision Posted: October 16, 2007 at 11:51 AM (#2579092)

Dan,

What do Lincecum and Cain look like in a more neutral park? Or playing in a bandbox like Citizen's Bank?

28. snowleopard Posted: October 27, 2007 at 07:30 AM (#2595578)

That projection looks low to me for Frandsen.

I wonder how Sabes did so well putting together offenses for a few years there. Was it just that he was a whole lot luckier than he deserved in his pickups of Mr. Porn Stache (a.k.a. "The Mad Truck Washer") and Home Run Jesus? Maybe he spent too many years playing for that year only. Maybe he just doesn't give a #### any more ...

29. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: October 27, 2007 at 07:52 AM (#2595584)

He did have some luck picking up guys off the scrap heap who could be useful enough to put together a decent lineup with Bonds and Kent holding the whole thing together. Then he went off the deep end, and his thought process is not totally clear when it comes to things like the Michael Tucker fiasco. I think that if he hasn't given a #### recently, he does now and wants to show people that he can put together a team without Bonds. I don't think he can do it, but I'm interested to watch him try.

30. kwarren Posted: November 17, 2007 at 09:29 PM (#2618656)

Dan - any particular reason why ZIPS expects Feliz to fall off the face of the earth

BA last four seasons - .276, .250, .244, .253
SLG last four seasons - .485, .422, .428, .418
HR last four seasons - 22, 20, 22, 20

08 projection - BA .239, SLG .382, HR 15

31. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 18, 2007 at 01:27 AM (#2618814)

Dan - any particular reason why ZIPS expects Feliz to fall off the face of the earth

ZiPS sees Feliz as a good dropoff candidate - lower quality hitters have harsher aging curves in their 30s and a larger chance of downside at the very extremes.

32. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 12, 2007 at 10:49 PM (#2642961)

I guess the Giants could sign A-Rod and Rowand and merely have a bad offense

They're one away from that goal now!

33. Snowboy Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:45 AM (#2643485)

Dan, can you do a projection for Gary Edmund Carter, thanks.

I'm glad a found these, makes the Blue Jays look a little better.
This list is full of "wow" for me...as in:
Wow, is that guy still around?
Wow, is that guy 29 already?
Wow, isn't that guy in Japan yet?
Wow, is that guy back from Japan?
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, they have some decent pitchers.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, so that's where that guy is now.
Wow, I wonder what the park will be named this year, I should be able to finally get tickets.

34. Dan Posted: December 13, 2007 at 10:54 AM (#2643486)

So the Giants' projected lineup is currently what? Something like:

LF Roberts
2B Durham
CF Roward
RF Winn
C Molina
1B Aurilia
3B ?????
SS Vizquel

Even with someone like Mike Lamb or Ensberg slotted in at 3B, that's likely to be the worst offense of the last 5 years at least, right?

35. The Essex Snead Posted: December 20, 2007 at 05:37 PM (#2650806)

Randy Winn: Cleanup Hitter!

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Saturday, October 13, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

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