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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, October 04, 2007
2008 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
Well, the good news is that ZiPS still likes the front of the bullpen to remain solid and the Rangers have some catcher depth to sort through. The bad new is that the rest of the team is pretty, bleak, with ZiPS not seeing anyone in the organization that’s odds-on to be an above-average 1B, DH, 3B, LF, RF, #2 starter, #3 starter, #4 starter, or #5 starter. And the few to even come close are generally long-shots for jobs. As good a player as Salty can be, the Rangers really have to be concerned at their front-line offense, which is might be worse than that of the Jays.
I’ve done spotlights for Taylor Teagarden and Kevin Millwood. Teagarden’s a pretty interesting player now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery. The team’s going to continue to work on getting his arm back to where it used to be and sort out the catching situation in the next year or so. The third above-average offensive catcher on the list, Max Ramirez, isn’t much of a defensive catcher and won’t stay there if his bat gets him to the majors. Teagarden doesn’t project to be an above-average DH-type this year, but I have to agree with ZiPS here regarding his power potential. This was essentially Teagarden’s first full professional season, for all intents and purposes. The Rangers really need to promote Teagarden aggressively in 2008 and not leave him to beat up younger pitchers - given their situation, it’d be nice for the team to get an idea what they have in him going into 2009. As for Kevin Millwood, well, he’s the only Ranger starter with a really good shot to not stink.
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
AVERAGE 1B/DH—————1b——.284 .362 .490—————————————————————
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.277 .353 .471—————————————————————
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.277 .351 .472—————————————————————
Jason Botts# lf 27 .258 .359 .447 134 472 73 122 32 3 17 77 73 152 1 1
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279 .347 .458—————————————————————
Mike Young ss 31 .303 .352 .427 158 661 88 200 39 2 13 95 48 105 8 3
Ian Kinsler 2b 26 .269 .345 .440 132 491 95 132 25 1 19 65 54 67 18 4
Victor Diaz rf 26 .274 .329 .475 112 394 50 108 20 1 19 77 31 111 4 2
Marlon Byrd cf 30 .288 .344 .443 141 497 67 143 28 5 13 79 37 99 4 3
Hank Blalock* 3b 27 .276 .336 .446 136 536 72 148 27 2 20 88 47 93 1 0
Taylor Teagarden c 24 .251 .337 .454 105 350 46 88 20 0 17 55 41 127 1 1
Nate Gold 1b 28 .264 .323 .474 118 435 56 115 23 1 22 85 36 94 1 1
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276 .340 .443—————————————————————
Frankie Catalanotto* lf 34 .274 .355 .413 110 361 50 99 25 2 7 47 37 41 0 1
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2B——.281 .341 .424—————————————————————
David Murphy* cf 26 .273 .336 .429 146 506 64 138 30 5 13 66 48 89 6 3
Brad Wilkerson* lf 31 .236 .332 .435 115 382 60 90 24 2 16 56 53 119 3 3
Maximiliano Ramirez c 23 .236 .340 .401 120 406 54 96 25 0 14 70 64 111 2 0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia# c 23 .257 .323 .425 111 374 45 96 19 1 14 45 35 90 0 0
John Mayberry Jr. rf 24 .235 .309 .455 123 442 65 104 23 1 24 73 42 113 9 2
Kevin West lf 28 .257 .321 .424 93 323 37 83 18 0 12 46 27 74 0 1
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.274 .329 .404—————————————————————
Nelson Cruz rf 27 .248 .320 .435 139 460 59 114 21 1 21 70 46 148 6 5
AVERAGE C———————- c——.265 .326 .412—————————————————————
Freddy Guzman# cf 27 .266 .338 .367 130 485 80 129 22 6 5 35 51 75 38 11
Anthony Webster* rf 25 .268 .306 .400 122 452 67 121 25 4 9 43 22 58 20 8
Gerald Laird c 28 .249 .305 .391 105 353 49 88 18 1 10 45 25 82 3 2
Sammy Sosa rf 39 .229 .294 .398 76 279 31 64 14 0 11 51 24 80 0 0
Chris Davis* 3b 22 .234 .272 .442 117 414 35 97 24 1 20 68 19 144 2 2
Chris Stewart c 26 .249 .293 .398 87 261 30 65 16 1 7 33 15 31 1 1
Guillermo Quiroz c 26 .248 .286 .393 70 234 16 58 13 0 7 35 12 49 0 0
German Duran 2b 23 .251 .291 .397 124 446 48 112 25 2 12 56 23 79 7 4
Desi Relaford# 3b 34 .236 .322 .328 77 259 34 61 13 1 3 37 31 45 3 0
Ramon Vazquez* 3b 31 .224 .306 .369 113 344 53 77 17 3 9 34 39 80 2 1
Kevin Mahar rf 27 .244 .294 .378 114 431 59 105 23 1 11 48 25 112 5 3
Travis Metcalf 3b 25 .233 .289 .379 128 430 57 100 25 1 12 54 34 110 3 2
Elvis Andrus ss 19 .248 .313 .338 116 444 65 110 24 2 4 47 38 102 26 12
Joaquin Arias ss 23 .271 .297 .352 124 483 54 131 17 5 4 49 15 55 12 7
Jerry Hairston Jr. cf 32 .236 .312 .338 90 237 33 56 13 1 3 21 20 38 4 4
Drew Meyer* 2b 26 .242 .298 .320 100 363 45 88 18 2 2 33 27 78 5 5
* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Botts# Av Av Fr
Young Fr
Kinsler Av
Diaz Fr Fr
Byrd Av Av Av
Blalock* Fr
Teagarden Av
Gold Av
Catalanotto* Av Fr Pr
Murphy* Vg Fr Av
Wilkerson* Av Av Pr Av
Ramirez Fr
Saltalamacchia# Fr Fr
Mayberry Av Av
West Fr Pr Fr Fr
Cruz Av Fr Av
Guzman# Av Av Av
Webster* Fr Fr Fr
Laird Vg
Sosa Fr
Davis* Fr
Stewart Av
Quiroz Vg
Duran Vg Av
Relaford# Fr Av Pr Fr Fr Fr
Vazquez* Fr Fr Av Pr
Mahar Av Fr Av
Metcalf Fr
Andrus Av
Arias Av Av
Hairston Fr Av Fr Av
Meyer* Vg Av Vg Vg Av
Player Spotlight - Taylor Teagarden
Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS
Optimistic (15%) .288 .380 .553 117 389 63 112 26 1 25 82 51 128 1 0
Mean .251 .337 .454 105 350 46 88 20 0 17 55 41 127 1 1
Pessimistic (15%) .231 .303 .399 82 273 30 63 13 0 11 34 26 107 0 1
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jim Pagliaroni, Steve Yeager
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Akinori Otsuka 36 3.40 4 2 56 0 53.0 50 20 3 19 41
Joaquin Benoit 30 3.44 5 2 64 0 81.0 71 31 7 30 83
C.J. Wilson* 27 3.90 3 2 63 0 67.0 63 29 6 27 58
Frankie Francisco 28 4.00 2 1 60 0 63.0 60 28 3 33 51
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.34———————————————————————-
Kevin Millwood 33 4.52 12 11 31 31 189.0 207 95 22 57 135
A.J. Murray* 26 4.56 3 4 66 0 75.0 79 38 10 33 54
LEAGUE AVERAGE STARTER———- 4.71————————————————————————
Scott Feldman 25 4.83 3 3 62 0 82.0 91 44 8 33 48
Vicente Padilla 30 4.92 10 12 32 32 172.0 189 94 20 67 112
Willie Eyre 29 4.93 5 5 48 1 84.0 94 46 10 31 52
Jorge Vasquez 29 4.94 2 3 45 0 62.0 64 34 10 33 52
Brandon McCarthy 24 4.96 8 10 24 24 127.0 140 70 16 47 77
Kason Gabbard* 26 5.07 9 11 31 29 158.0 171 89 21 70 99
Franklyn German 28 5.07 2 3 53 0 55.0 58 31 8 33 40
Wes Littleton 25 5.10 4 4 62 0 90.0 101 51 16 25 52
Mike Wood 28 5.13 6 8 38 17 135.0 160 77 22 39 72
John Rheinecker* 29 5.14 6 8 30 21 133.0 157 76 16 44 69
Kameron Loe 26 5.18 8 10 38 23 146.0 169 84 16 57 79
Jamey Wright 33 5.20 7 10 31 20 142.0 161 82 19 65 84
Luis Mendoza 24 5.31 9 12 32 30 173.0 211 102 24 44 74
Edinson Volquez 24 5.35 10 14 33 33 175.0 189 104 31 79 131
Thomas Diamond 25 5.47 8 11 30 30 153.0 160 93 25 87 126
Bill White* 29 5.57 1 1 59 0 63.0 71 39 9 36 49
Armando Galarraga 26 5.65 7 11 29 28 161.0 190 101 29 51 99
Rob Tejeda 26 5.66 7 12 28 27 143.0 160 90 20 79 93
Brandon Puffer 32 5.79 3 4 56 0 73.0 89 47 13 25 36
Chris Baker 30 5.97 4 8 26 16 107.0 132 71 19 31 56
Josh Rupe 25 5.98 5 10 29 20 131.0 157 87 24 50 75
Randy Williams* 32 6.22 2 4 57 0 68.0 81 47 14 29 46
Ezequiel Astacio 28 6.39 4 9 33 17 107.0 129 76 26 42 73
Francisco Cruceta 26 6.43 5 10 34 21 140.0 162 100 32 65 102
Eric Hurley 22 6.59 6 15 31 30 168.0 207 123 46 51 102
Bruce Chen* 31 6.64 2 4 32 11 84.0 105 62 21 30 56
Alfredo Simon 27 7.45 4 11 30 20 122.0 167 101 29 40 51
* - Throws Left
Player Spotlight - Kevin Millwood
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K
Optimistic (15%) 3.64 17 9 34 34 215 216 87 18 55 163
Mean 4.52 12 11 31 31 189 207 95 22 57 135
Pessimistic (15%) 5.62 8 12 26 26 152 184 95 24 54 99
Top Near-Age Comps: Dave Goltz, John Burkett
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: October 04, 2007 at 05:28 PM | 24 comment(s)
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1. Frisco Cali Posted: October 04, 2007 at 06:29 PM (#2560024)On a good note, Michael Young gets another 200 hits.
Forgive my ignorance, but who is Taylor Teagarden? That's an interesting line, especially compared to Salty.
Now that's mean!
Teagarden was the Rangers' 3rd round draft pick in 2005, but he messed up his elbow in the Arizona and had to have Tommy John surgery. He's still had some pain in his elbow this year, too, but they didn't find any more damage. His primary strength coming out of college on defense was considered his arm, but if that's kinda iffy, it's a concern about him staying there. The Rangers would like him to stay at catcher as long as possible, but they've also been wary about losing him again and he DHed more than he caught this year.
Almost as bad as "in the Iraq."
(mentally panning through the roster)
What exactly would it take to get Adam Dunn in a Ranger uniform???
*sigh* What happened to the Rangers I grew up loving? The ones where a pitcher making 34 starts with an ERA+ barely over 100 could win 18-20 games a year?
But according to this he was a free agent a year ago.
I do find it amusing, however, that as mediocre-to-bad team the Rangers were this season, they still managed to come up with two centerfielders that played better than Sarge Lite this season.
I finished Part II of the ZiPS comparisons some time back (which focuses on the pitching), that you can view here.
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