———————————————————————————————————————————————————
HITTERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Miguel Cabrera 3b 26 .309 .382 .559 160 605 104 187 39 2 36 135 70 113 3 2 144
Magglio Ordonez rf 35 .313 .374 .487 145 552 80 173 34 1 20 101 53 75 2 3 125
Curtis Granderson* cf 28 .281 .356 .499 154 595 111 167 33 14 23 74 66 139 14 3 123
Carlos Guillen# 3b 33 .291 .367 .456 125 461 73 134 29 4 13 65 55 75 10 5 116
Placido Polanco 2b 33 .314 .357 .416 134 555 87 174 30 3 7 57 31 35 5 2 104
Marcus Thames lf 32 .249 .309 .512 91 285 45 71 13 1 20 49 24 79 1 2 112
Ryan Raburn lf 28 .259 .328 .441 105 320 46 83 18 2 12 50 31 77 7 2 101
Mike Hessman 3b 31 .233 .316 .476 118 424 58 99 15 2 28 66 46 144 3 4 106
Jeffrey Larish* 1b 26 .252 .329 .436 133 461 52 116 23 1 20 69 49 118 3 3 100
Gary Sheffield dh 40 .236 .339 .395 115 423 65 100 16 0 17 53 61 73 11 3 93
Timo Perez* lf 34 .276 .329 .388 110 399 48 110 19 1 8 47 30 43 11 4 89
Brandon Inge c 32 .240 .316 .408 145 483 63 116 24 3 17 70 47 124 6 3 90
Gerald Laird c 29 .262 .313 .400 107 370 55 97 22 1 9 43 25 75 4 3 87
Alexis Gomez* lf 30 .265 .310 .408 63 196 22 52 11 1 5 22 12 44 5 2 88
Michael Hollimon# 2b 27 .236 .308 .404 108 394 56 93 19 4 13 40 40 117 9 4 86
Ryan Strieby 1b 23 .238 .290 .417 122 475 47 113 17 1 22 75 34 122 2 3 84
Brent Clevlen rf 25 .234 .303 .388 135 466 56 109 15 3 17 57 44 171 6 3 81
Clete Thomas* cf 25 .247 .312 .363 128 482 59 119 23 3 9 45 43 127 25 10 78
Casper Wells rf 24 .230 .292 .415 105 400 51 92 16 2 18 52 27 109 13 9 84
Ramon Santiago# ss 29 .255 .319 .347 75 216 31 55 10 2 2 19 15 34 3 2 76
Don Kelly* 2b 29 .257 .311 .343 115 385 47 99 17 2 4 39 28 42 6 3 73
Dusty Ryan c 24 .227 .290 .382 90 322 36 73 12 1 12 42 28 114 1 1 76
Matt Treanor c 33 .242 .324 .322 51 149 16 36 6 0 2 19 15 30 0 0 72
William Rhymes* 2b 26 .259 .304 .318 138 544 65 141 16 2 4 45 34 72 18 6 65
Adam Everett ss 32 .235 .284 .330 104 361 37 85 20 1 4 36 21 66 8 3 64
Wilkin Ramirez lf 23 .227 .271 .356 126 489 55 111 14 2 15 52 27 163 25 12 64
Maxim St. Pierre c 29 .236 .279 .329 63 225 22 53 9 0 4 26 12 37 1 1 60
Scott Sizemore 2b 24 .221 .283 .311 77 299 35 66 13 1 4 23 24 59 10 6 57
Dane Sardinha c 30 .201 .243 .307 84 274 25 55 8 0 7 25 14 76 1 1 44
Cale Iorg ss 23 .196 .248 .306 102 409 44 80 11 2 10 35 22 148 16 13 45
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Cabrera Fr Pr
Ordonez Av
Granderson* Vg
Guillen# Av Fr Fr Av
Polanco Vg
Thames Av Fr Fr
Raburn Fr Fr Av Av Av
Hessman Av Pr Pr
Larish* Av Pr
Sheffield Pr Pr Pr
T.I.M.O.* Fr Pr Fr
Inge Vg Av Av Av
Laird Av
Gomez* Av Pr Av
Hollimon# Av Fr
Strieby Vg
Clevlen Vg Fr Vg
Thomas* Av Fr Av
Wells Av Fr Av
Santiago# Av Av
Kelly* Av Fr Av Pr
Ryan Av Fr
Treanor Av
Rhymes* Vg Fr
Everett Vg
Ramirez Pr Vg
St. Pierre Vg
Sizemore Av
Sardinha Fr Av
Iorg Vg
OFFENSIVE MATRIX
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP2 COMP3
CabreraMiguel 3B 85% 13% 2% 0% 0% HartJim Ray SantoRon HigginsPinky
OrdonezMagglio RF 38% 38% 15% 7% 2% AlouMoises FurilloCarl KalineAl
GrandersonCurtis CF 66% 17% 12% 4% 1% Van SlykeAndy HayesVon MosebyLloyd
GuillenCarlos 3B 33% 37% 18% 8% 4% MuellerBill BonillaBobby CaminitiKen
PolancoPlacido 2B 31% 21% 20% 17% 11% RojasCookie SaxSteve MillanFelix
ThamesMarcus LF 15% 31% 21% 18% 16% IncavigliaPete TriplettCoaker ZernialGus
RaburnRyan LF 1% 17% 28% 32% 21% CordovaMarty KnottJon BergerBrandon
HessmanMike 3B 12% 27% 23% 19% 19% CoolbaughMike MaynardBuster BranyanRussell
LarishJeffrey 1B 1% 11% 17% 33% 38% WhitesellJosh RifkinAaron HarrisGail
SheffieldGary DH 0% 6% 12% 31% 51% BaylorDon AaronHank KillebrewHarmon
PerezTimo LF 0% 3% 9% 24% 64% RadcliffRip SurhoffB.J. GriffeyKen
GomezAlexis LF 0% 0% 3% 14% 83% StahlLarry TolanBobby SmithWillie
IngeBrandon C 5% 26% 30% 29% 11% HeganJim KarkoviceRon PenaTony
LairdGerald C 1% 15% 30% 39% 16% LamannoRay QuinteroHumberto MelvinBob
HollimonMichael 2B 6% 9% 15% 24% 47% ConradBrooks CrespoCesar HairstonJerry
StriebyRyan 1B 0% 3% 6% 20% 71% CarterChristopher WhitneyMatthew KaaihueKala
ThomasClete CF 3% 5% 13% 23% 57% SaundersMichael MartinDustin CoatsBuck
ClevlenBrent RF 0% 4% 7% 13% 75% AllegraMatthew StewartCaleb McCarthyBill
WellsCasper RF 3% 7% 7% 11% 73% StewartQuinn MatherJoe GartrellMaurice
SantiagoRamon SS 0% 2% 12% 39% 48% CintronAlex StockerKevin UribeJose
KellyDon 2B 0% 0% 2% 13% 84% DoyleDenny HillerChuck YoungBobby
RyanDusty C 0% 5% 14% 31% 49% PaniaguaSalvador ChitiHarry QuirozGuillermo
TreanorMatt C 0% 0% 3% 35% 63% EtchebarrenAndy SwiftBob CeroneRick
RhymesWilliam 2B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% SuttonNate AndersonMarlon ThurstonJoe
EverettAdam SS 0% 0% 0% 12% 88% LavanDoc GallowayChick DuffyFrank
RamirezWilkin LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% LasterJeramy WellsCasper GrahamTyler
St. PierreMaxim C 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% NievesWil TorborgJeff HayworthRed
SizemoreScott 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BlairCameron DavisonTodd RowlettCasey
SardinhaDane C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% CashKevin SpencerRoy EspositoBrian
IorgCale SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% WaltonNeil BrewerBrent CoultasRyan
—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Justin Verlander 26 4.27 14 11 32 32 194.0 192 92 20 74 162 106
Jeremy Bonderman 26 4.45 7 7 22 22 137.2 143 68 16 47 114 101
Armando Galarraga 27 4.79 10 10 28 27 159.2 166 85 24 62 107 94
Edwin Jackson 25 4.98 11 14 32 32 179.0 195 99 21 77 120 90
Jon Kibler* 22 5.22 8 11 23 23 131.0 154 76 16 43 45 86
Nate Robertson* 31 5.28 9 12 29 28 168.2 194 99 24 60 110 85
Dontrelle Willis* 27 5.34 7 10 26 25 143.1 159 85 19 72 86 84
Kenny Rogers* 44 5.38 7 11 25 25 144.0 169 86 20 56 71 84
Rick Porcello 20 5.80 5 9 24 24 113.1 139 73 18 37 40 78
Luis Marte 22 5.80 3 6 16 11 66.2 77 43 12 30 33 78
Chris Lambert 26 5.82 6 11 31 22 128.1 149 83 20 62 82 77
Duane Below* 23 6.17 5 11 26 26 128.1 150 88 21 74 70 73
Kyle Bloom* 26 6.61 5 11 27 24 115.2 136 85 23 72 62 68
—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Bobby Seay* 31 3.88 2 1 53 0 48.2 48 21 3 19 43 116
Joel Zumaya 24 3.92 3 2 37 0 43.2 38 19 4 28 44 115
Brandon Lyon 29 4.11 5 3 66 0 65.2 71 30 5 18 44 110
Rudy Darrow 25 4.35 4 4 40 0 49.2 53 24 3 24 25 104
Fernando Rodney 32 4.44 4 4 48 0 50.2 46 25 5 31 54 102
Clay Rapada* 28 4.74 3 4 56 0 57.0 59 30 5 30 41 95
Zach Miner 27 4.79 6 6 34 14 103.1 112 55 9 44 57 94
Todd Jones 41 4.86 3 3 53 0 50.0 58 27 4 18 22 93
Macay McBride* 26 4.93 1 2 34 2 34.2 35 19 4 20 27 91
Aquilino Lopez 34 5.27 3 3 48 1 71.2 81 42 13 23 55 85
Casey Fien 25 5.37 2 4 42 0 55.1 63 33 10 16 35 84
Freddy Dolsi 26 5.53 3 5 49 0 55.1 63 34 7 29 30 82
Juan Rincon 30 5.64 2 4 58 0 60.2 71 38 9 27 42 80
Zachary Simons 24 5.79 3 6 44 0 60.2 65 39 9 43 39 78
Scott Williamson 33 5.86 1 3 28 0 27.2 30 18 5 14 24 77
* - Throws Left
PITCHING MATRIX
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
BelowDuane SP 0% 9% 91% NarvesonChris MaloneyMatthew GabbardKason
BloomKyle SP 0% 4% 96% NarvesonChris HampsonJustin SnareRyan
BondermanJeremy SP 30% 57% 13% MillerStu GrossKevin LeonardDennis
BonineEddie SP 2% 29% 69% HubbellBill SampsonChris SheldonRollie
DarrowRudy RP 16% 51% 33% McDonaldJim GravesDanny HillRonald
DolsiFreddy RP 3% 24% 73% HannanJim WalkupJim JonesBarry
FienCasey RP 4% 28% 68% WilsonKris BettsHuck KealeySteve
GalarragaArmando SP 17% 49% 34% HirshJason EldredCal MaineJohn
JacksonEdwin SP 4% 42% 54% FreislebenDave AaseDon DempsterRyan
JonesTodd RP 12% 39% 49% ByerlyBud HergesMatt MadduxMike
KiblerJonathan SP 5% 42% 53% LaffeyAaron SowersJeremy JasterLarry
LambertChris SP 1% 21% 78% FreislebenDave CrucetaFrancisco TankersleyDennis
LopezAquilino RP 4% 27% 69% HevingJoe PenaOrlando RaymondClaude
LyonBrandon RP 31% 49% 20% JimenezJose KingNellie UpshawCecil
MarteLuis SP 3% 19% 78% MahomesPat NorrisMike ScudderScott
McBrideMacay RP 12% 37% 51% HallDrew DaalOmar CapillaDoug
MinerZach RP 19% 51% 29% GraheJoe WickmanBob AndujarJoaquin
PorcelloRick SP 1% 20% 79% LemongelloMark MoseleyDustin FosterAlan
RapadaClay RP 9% 47% 44% MohlerMike RuckerDave StantonMike
RinconJuan RP 2% 17% 81% AkerJack LintonDoug HillmanDave
RobertsonNate SP 4% 39% 57% KellnerAlex LemasterDenny SmithEddie
RodneyFernando RP 18% 41% 41% HughesJim LaCorteFrank BurtschyMoe
RogersKenny SP 3% 33% 64% FlanaganMike MitchellClarence GlavineTom
SeayBobby RP 37% 44% 18% DarensbourgVic DayleyKen McElroyChuck
SimonsZachary RP 1% 12% 87% FrutoEmiliano DeShongJimmie OgdenCurly
VerlanderJustin SP 38% 54% 7% EscobarKelvim WilsonDon JaveryAl
WilliamsonScott RP 9% 19% 73% MungoVan BottalicoRicky HallDarren
WillisDontrelle SP 5% 37% 58% KoronkaJohn MooreBarry GabbardKason
ZumayaJoel RP 40% 39% 21% BruneyBrian OlsonGregg ManteiMatt
——————————————————————-
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ 140+
Cabrera 62
Granderson 21
Ordonez 19
OBP .400+
Cabrera 26
Ordonez 16
Guillen 12
SLG .550+
Cabrera 59
Thames 25
Granderson 17
BA .325+
Polanco 32
Ordonez 32
Cabrera 27
2B 45+
Cabrera 28
ordonez 8
Granderson 7
3B 5+
Granderson 98
Guillen 38
Hollimon 30
HR 30+
Cabrera 79
Hessman 38
Granderson 20
SB 50+
Thomas 1
ERA+ 140+ (Starters)
Verlander 4
Bonderman 2
Galarraga 1
ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)
Zumaya 24
Seay 23
Lyon 15
K/9 9+ (Starters)
Verlander 9
Bonderman 4
Lambert 1
K/9 9+ (Relievers)
Rodney 60
Zumaya 43
Seay 22
BB/9 1.5- (Starters)
Bonine 16
Porcello 1
BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)
Fien 6
Lyon 6
Jones 3
HR/9 0.7- (Starters)
Verlander 26
Bonderman 20
Kibler 13
HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)
Darrow 89
Seay 77
Lyon 61
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 23, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3083662)AV
Who's Rudy Darrow?
Good catch - he was actually supposed to be AV (I have his projection as +3)
Or Dontrelle Willis. Although if he's projected to put up a 5.37 ERA and is comparable to John Koronka, it's probably not that likely. Ah, Dontrelle. So sad.
I had no clue Scott Williamson was still active. Probably a little less of a tragedy than Dontrelle, but he sure did look promising for a little while there.
You know who'd give huge oomph? Maxim St. Pierre.
What the hell did Timo Perez ever do to draw comparisons to BJ Surhoff and Ken Griffey (let's at least hope it's Sr.)??
Any chance of a projection for Perry (Leyland has already been hinting he has a shot to go north) and Satterwhite?
Joe, the other plan is to have more players (Inge, Everett esp) who can make plays behind the pitchers. I really think the D will help, but it may not be enough.
Great work as always Dan, thanks.
Senior.
Timo's kind of underrated in that he simply seems to be the worst pinch-hitter ever. That projection is almost identical to his non-PH hitting in the majors, but his pinch-hitting is 199/244/266.
One of the more interesting things I've discovered in the projections "game" is just how distorting pinch-hitting appearances are. So distorting, in fact, that despite making your data set smaller by removing them, you actually increase correlation with future stats by doing so.
That would be a mistake. Porcello was good, but not exactly dominant, at Lakeland a year ago - he was more hittable than one would expect and he wasn't missing as many bats as you would like to see. He still has a lot to learn, IMO.
-- MWE
Well, of those six names, there will be almost no interest in three of them (Sheff, Robertson, Willis). Ordonez and Polanco maybe, but how do Ordonez's options work? My understanding is that '10 and '11 are guaranteed (at $18 million and $15 million, respectively) if he has 457+ plate appearances in '09. Maggs is a great player, but that's a lot of money for his age 36 and 37 seasons.
The key is going to be Verlander. If he can get back to where he was before '08, they can build a team around him and Cabrera. That's a potentially awesome 1-2 punch (and each of them is entering his age 26 season), and I don't see anybody in the AL Central is running away with things over the next 5 years.
If he collapses then DD is left without a pitching staff and expensive players he can't justify keeping and so will be forced into a fire-sale, the worst part of which is that with the current economic conditions teams aren't going to be willing to take on payroll so it might not improve the tigers money issues in the short-term so much.
No pressure, Justin!
In addition to Buck's comments above, Porcello is coming, if not this year. Granderson, MCab, Porcello, and Verlander could be a great core.
I don't doubt it was part of the plan for Porcello to focus on developing his sinker (which is excellent, BTW), but I've never liked that particular approach. Porcello has to learn how and when to use ALL of his pitches, and he can (and should) do that without asking him to shelve the best one in his arsenal (which is probably his curveball).
33 at 2B, 32 at SS, 32 at 3B, 33 in LF, 35 in RF, 40 at DH
I know a lot of those guys project fairly well but that's rarely a winning recipe. Even the bench is old with maybe Clete Thomas (as 5th OF) the only player under 26 who might get substantial playing time.
I'd recommend bringing up Porcello. Ignoring performance issues, part of the Tigers' long-range problem is that Verlander and Bonderman are already "expensive" at 26. (and of course Robertson and Willis eating up plenty of dough for the next few years too.)
They could win the AL Central (who couldn't?) but I don't see a bright future for the Tigers. And yes, I could see a fire sale but, as has been pointed out, who's gonna buy?
And you want it to happen with Porcello too?
One of the things I love about the Tigers is these old(ish) guys like Hessman, Larish and Raburn getting shots a bench jobs.
He was a very good prospect in A ball. I think winning the FSL MVP in '06. Historically he has played better when he repeats a league (which he has done several times). He won't be a star, but I believe he is a good defensive player and has some power, so he could be a good 4th OF
As a White Sox fan, I'm hoping for a "Por boy" rivalry between Porcello and Poreda in the coming years. Their 2008 numbers look good:
Porcello: 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP as a 19-year-old in A+ ball
Poreda: 2.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP as a 21-year-old in AA ball
What a terrific name
As we were fond of pointing out over at Brew Crew Ball, it's an anagram for "Marxist Empire".
Salary cap?? Is this Bud Selig posting from his own fantasy?
Wait a minute, you're some kind of weird spambot. #### OFF!
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