———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ ARM
FAIR
John Baker* c 28 .251 .326 .368 99 323 38 81 18 1 6 38 34 73 2 1 85 Fr
Paul Lo Duca c 37 .261 .318 .337 80 261 26 68 11 0 3 27 19 20 1 0 76 Fr
Matt Treanor c 33 .242 .322 .335 62 182 17 44 8 0 3 22 18 41 0 0 76 Av
POOR
Mike Rabelo# c 29 .242 .297 .355 63 211 19 51 10 1 4 21 13 49 0 1 74 Fr
Brett Hayes c 25 .241 .280 .353 97 340 32 82 12 1 8 34 17 70 2 6 68 Fr
Paul Hoover c 33 .218 .271 .332 63 202 17 44 9 1 4 19 14 59 1 1 60 Vg
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FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
FAIR
Jorge Cantu 3b 27 .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 2 1 106 Av
POOR
Wes Helms 1b 33 .258 .321 .399 107 213 22 55 12 0 6 37 16 52 0 0 91 Av
Gaby Sanchez 1b 25 .254 .319 .405 138 511 63 130 29 0 16 70 45 79 10 8 92 Av
Logan Morrison* 1b 21 .252 .304 .403 138 528 58 133 26 0 18 65 38 88 5 2 87 Fr
Dallas McPherson* 3b 28 .217 .295 .432 108 368 45 80 18 2 19 50 39 152 7 4 91 Av
Paul Lo Duca c 37 .261 .318 .337 80 261 26 68 11 0 3 27 19 20 1 0 76 Fr
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Av
John Gall lf 31 .244 .303 .356 90 320 31 78 16 1 6 42 25 50 5 3 76 Fr
Jason Wood 1b 39 .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 2 0 56 Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Dan Uggla 2b 29 .262 .348 .488 150 572 103 150 38 2 29 87 67 152 4 4 120 Fr
VERY GOOD
Jorge Cantu 3b 27 .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 2 1 106 Pr
POOR
Chris Coghlan* 2b 24 .251 .315 .363 125 487 62 122 23 1 10 62 42 69 29 8 81 Av
Chase Lambin# 2b 29 .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 3 3 83 Fr
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Fr
Andrew Beattie# 2b 31 .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 7 3 74 Av
Chris Barnwell ss 30 .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 12 4 64 Av
Robert Andino 2b 25 .232 .280 .337 114 406 39 94 15 2 8 28 26 90 16 8 64 Vg
Jason Wood 1b 39 .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 2 0 56 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
AVERAGE
Jorge Cantu 3b 27 .270 .324 .458 131 493 65 133 31 1 20 75 34 96 2 1 106 Pr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FAIR
Wes Helms 1b 33 .258 .321 .399 107 213 22 55 12 0 6 37 16 52 0 0 91 Fr
Gaby Sanchez 1b 25 .254 .319 .405 138 511 63 130 29 0 16 70 45 79 10 8 92 Pr
Dallas McPherson* 3b 28 .217 .295 .432 108 368 45 80 18 2 19 50 39 152 7 4 91 Fr
POOR
Chris Coghlan* 2b 24 .251 .315 .363 125 487 62 122 23 1 10 62 42 69 29 8 81 Av
Chase Lambin# 2b 29 .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 3 3 83 Av
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Fr
Andrew Beattie# 2b 31 .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 7 3 74 Av
Chris Barnwell ss 30 .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 12 4 64 Av
Jason Wood 1b 39 .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 2 0 56 Fr
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
EXCELLENT
Hanley Ramirez ss 25 .307 .393 .546 154 612 124 188 39 4 33 71 81 112 38 12 148 Fr
FAIR
Chase Lambin# 2b 29 .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 3 3 83 Fr
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Av
POOR
Chris Barnwell ss 30 .235 .299 .311 113 392 40 92 16 1 4 28 30 66 12 4 64 Fr
Robert Andino 2b 25 .232 .280 .337 114 406 39 94 15 2 8 28 26 90 16 8 64 Av
Jason Wood 1b 39 .227 .288 .292 88 216 21 49 8 0 2 29 16 51 2 0 56 Pr
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF
VERY GOOD
Jeremy Hermida* rf 25 .271 .352 .468 135 479 72 130 27 2 21 69 55 123 6 2 117 Av Av
Cody Ross cf 28 .263 .332 .489 120 354 49 93 23 3 17 53 33 91 4 0 116 Vg Vg
FAIR
John Raynor lf 25 .260 .325 .390 128 497 81 129 22 2 13 42 42 114 47 10 90 Av Av
Cameron Maybin cf 22 .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 27 6 90 Vg Vg
Luis Gonzalez* lf 41 .255 .333 .392 121 329 36 84 19 1 8 49 38 43 2 1 93 Fr Fr
POOR
Jacque Jones* rf 34 .253 .320 .382 86 288 34 73 15 2 6 40 27 61 4 1 87 Av Vg
Chase Lambin# 2b 29 .241 .308 .381 122 394 45 95 18 2 11 42 35 103 3 3 83 Fr Fr
Scott Cousins* rf 24 .251 .297 .396 95 371 45 93 16 1 12 42 23 81 17 7 83 Av Av
Jai Miller rf 24 .227 .295 .373 129 459 47 104 20 1 15 44 42 139 19 4 77 Vg Av
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Av
Michael Stanton rf 19 .221 .284 .386 133 529 53 117 19 1 22 55 40 139 3 1 77 Vg Vg
Brett Carroll rf 26 .225 .279 .403 109 347 40 78 16 2 14 44 22 90 4 3 80 Av Av
John Gall lf 31 .244 .303 .356 90 320 31 78 16 1 6 42 25 50 5 3 76 Fr
Andrew Beattie# 2b 31 .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 7 3 74 Av Av
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG
VERY GOOD
Cody Ross cf 28 .263 .332 .489 120 354 49 93 23 3 17 53 33 91 4 0 116 Av
FAIR
John Raynor lf 25 .260 .325 .390 128 497 81 129 22 2 13 42 42 114 47 10 90 Av
Cameron Maybin cf 22 .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 27 6 90 Vg
Jacque Jones* rf 34 .253 .320 .382 86 288 34 73 15 2 6 40 27 61 4 1 87 Av
Scott Cousins* rf 24 .251 .297 .396 95 371 45 93 16 1 12 42 23 81 17 7 83 Fr
POOR
Jai Miller rf 24 .227 .295 .373 129 459 47 104 20 1 15 44 42 139 19 4 77 Av
Alfredo Amezaga# cf 31 .260 .319 .343 119 315 38 82 12 4 2 24 25 47 10 5 77 Av
Michael Stanton rf 19 .221 .284 .386 133 529 53 117 19 1 22 55 40 139 3 1 77 Av
Brett Carroll rf 26 .225 .279 .403 109 347 40 78 16 2 14 44 22 90 4 3 80 Fr
Andrew Beattie# 2b 31 .234 .302 .349 104 350 38 82 14 1 8 39 34 88 7 3 74 Fr
—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
MIDDLE THIRD
Josh Johnson 25 4.04 6 5 20 18 107.0 110 48 9 40 87 106
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Ricky Nolasco 26 4.57 10 11 31 30 189.0 201 96 28 40 151 94
Anibal Sanchez 25 4.59 5 5 17 17 96.0 98 49 11 43 76 93
Andrew Miller* 24 4.60 8 10 32 25 141.0 147 72 11 63 113 93
Eulogio de la Cruz 25 4.73 7 9 37 19 135.0 140 71 12 67 96 91
BOTTOM THIRD
Mark Hendrickson* 35 4.90 6 8 31 17 123.0 138 67 15 42 83 87
Burke Badenhop 26 4.94 6 7 21 19 113.0 134 62 11 39 55 87
Christopher Volstad 22 5.03 6 9 21 21 127.0 147 71 14 43 62 85
Ryan Tucker 22 5.11 5 8 34 22 132.0 144 75 15 66 79 84
Dallas Trahern 23 5.49 7 11 25 25 141.0 166 86 21 60 74 78
Aaron Thompson* 22 5.61 3 6 19 19 101.0 122 63 13 43 43 78
Chris Seddon* 25 5.62 6 11 26 26 141.0 160 88 23 63 99 76
Henricus van den Hurk 24 5.66 1 3 7 7 35.0 38 22 6 19 36 76
Bob Keppel 27 5.88 5 11 24 20 124.0 155 81 18 54 59 73
Dan Meyer* 27 5.97 3 8 21 18 101.0 119 67 17 45 56 72
Brett Sinkbeil 24 6.05 4 9 22 22 116.0 145 78 19 45 79 71
—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
MIDDLE THIRD
Arthur Rhodes* 39 3.32 3 2 54 0 38.0 34 14 1 19 40 131
Joe Nelson 34 3.65 3 2 63 0 69.0 58 28 9 31 86 117
Lee Gardner 34 3.77 3 2 38 0 43.0 46 18 3 13 23 116
Matthew Lindstrom 29 3.80 4 3 64 0 64.0 64 27 4 25 54 113
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Brandon Villafuerte 33 4.02 3 3 41 0 47.0 48 21 4 19 37 107
Leo Nunez 25 4.14 3 2 42 0 50.0 49 23 6 21 38 104
BOTTOM THIRD
Renyel Pinto* 26 4.50 3 4 66 0 64.0 58 32 9 38 59 95
Logan Kensing 26 4.58 2 3 48 0 53.0 47 27 8 35 62 94
Doug Waechter 28 4.71 3 3 52 0 65.0 73 34 8 19 40 91
Taylor Tankersley* 26 4.97 3 4 68 0 58.0 58 32 9 33 56 86
Jesus Delgado 25 5.25 4 5 40 5 72.0 78 42 8 43 44 82
Timothy Wood 26 5.32 3 4 31 0 44.0 49 26 6 20 24 81
Christopher Leroux 25 5.96 3 7 55 0 71.0 82 47 14 33 49 72
Harvey Garcia 25 6.21 2 5 47 0 58.0 64 40 11 37 51 69
Carlos Martinez 27 6.64 2 4 39 0 42.0 50 31 12 17 34 65
* - Throws Left
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Jeremy Hermida
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection
.271 .352 .468 135 479 72 130 27 2 21 69 55 123 6 2 117
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Bruce Campbell, Ben Grieve
Offense %
STAR 46
AVG 69
REP LV 93
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 4 >.400 5 >10 0 >200 0
>140 14 >.375 23 >5 6 >150 6
>130 26 >.350 59
>120 43 >.325 87 2B %
>110 64 >.300 98 >45 2
>100 81 >30 32
>90 91
>80 96
>60 100
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 10 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 2 >.500 27 >40 2 >50 0
>.300 13 >.450 58 >30 10 >30 0
>.275 45 >.400 87 >20 43 >10 19
>.250 81 >.350 96 >10 92
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Cameron Maybin
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .254 .319 .399 114 414 62 105 14 2 14 44 39 118 27 6 90
Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Sammy Sosa, Choo Freeman
Offense %
STAR 20
AVG 56
REP LV 91
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 1 >.375 3 >5 10 >150 0
>130 4 >.350 16
>120 9 >.325 45 2B %
>110 18 >.300 79 >45 0
>100 32 >30 0
>90 52
>80 71
>60 95
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 1 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 6 >40 0 >50 3
>.300 5 >.450 18 >30 2 >30 38
>.275 22 >.400 48 >20 14 >10 100
>.250 55 >.350 79 >10 71
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Ricky Nolasco
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.57 10 11 31 30 189 201 96 28 40 151 94
Top Near-Age Comps: Moose Haas, Don Sutton
ERA %
Top 1/3 27
Mid 1/3 32
Bot 1/3 41
ERA+ % BB %
>150 1
<32 24
>
140 3 <42 61
>
130 7 <53 92
>
120 13 <63 96
>
110 23 <74 100
>
100 37 <84 100
>
90 55
>80 76 HR %
>70 92 <15 3
<21 25
K % <27 52
>189 4 <34 66
>168 15
>147 45
>126 85
——————————————————————-
Player Spotlight - Andrew Miller
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 4.60 8 10 32 25 141 147 72 11 63 113 93
Top Near-Age Comps: Jim Kaat, Danny Jackson
ERA %
Top 1/3 21
Mid 1/3 40
Bot 1/3 39
ERA+ % BB %
>150 1 <24 0
>140 2 <31 6
>130 4 <39 13
>120 8 <47 18
>110 17 <55 37
>100 33 <63 44
>90 55
>80 79 HR %
>70 94 <11 53
<16 79
K % <20 98
>141 11 <25 100
>125 21
>110 42
>94 73
——————————————————————-
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
HANLEY RAMIREZ
%
40/40 7
50/50 1-in-499
OPS+ >140
Ramirez 65
Uggla 14
Hermida 14
OBP >.400
Ramirez 44
Hermida 5
Uggla 2
SLG >.550
Ramirez 41
Ross 13
Uggla 12
BA >.325
Ramirez 25
Amezaga 2
Hermida 2
2B >45
Ramirez 24
uggla 11
Hermida 2
3B >10
Ramirez 6
Raynor 2
Andino 2
HR >30
Ramirez 58
Uggla 33
Hermida 10
SB >50
Raynor 42
Ramirez 10
Coghlan 6
ERA+ >140
Nelson 25
Johnson 14
Lindstrom 13
K/9 >9
Nelson 84
Kensing 66
Tankersley 27
BB/9 <1.5
Nolasco 24
Waecther 8
Volstad 6
HR/9 <0.7
Lindstrom 69
Miller 53
de la Cruz 40
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 09, 2008 at 03:50 PM (#3023807)Is Hendrickson signed for next year? For some reason I thought he was a FA.
He's a FA. The Marlins are his most recent team. The error is that I left out Luis Gonzalez by accident.
Boy, is THAT a safe projection :)
I did not see Maybin hit a single home run last year. He only hit four at home, FWIW, all in games that I missed for one reason or another. I see him as unlikely to develop like Sosa did, simply because he hits too many ground balls.
I'm a big Gaby Sanchez fan, but I think he's going to have to show he can play 3B to have a long career. Right-handed hitting 1Bs with his skill set (essentially the Mark Grace skill set) tend to get buried. I'll tell you, though - if hard work and attitude count for anything, he'll be a big star.
-- MWE
I dunno, ZiPS comped him to Don Sutton.
Wow, I had no idea Nolasco had that kind of year. Nice to see the Marlins get something out of trading away one of their superstars. :-)
That's a huge overstatement. Stanton had a good year. He has a lot of raw power. But he swings and misses a lot, and Greensboro is a very good home run park. If the power translates to Jupiter and he starts making contact more consistently, I'll get on the wagon then.
-- MWE
No kidding. The projections for the pitchers start to seem reasonable if that defense is behind them.
It seems fair to me. He projects as a league-average starter until proven otherwise on account of how little he pitched in 2007. Lot's of young mediocre pitchers have a fluke ~120 ERA+ season before regressing to the mean. It wouldn't surprise me if he followed a Brett Tomko-type career path: occasionally very good, but mostly just a reliable workhouse.
Who would you rather have - Willingham or Hermida?
Hermida, hands down. They're comparable players at this point, but Hermida is five years younger. His peak could be considerably higher than anything Willingham has done to date (and likely will ever do).
Second, if you asked 100 baseball fans what team Arthur Rhodes was on, how many would say the Marlins? Less than zero?
Third, I'm officially on the bandwagon. I'm giving Florida a 30% chance of winning the East this year, and will be amazed if they finish below .500.
I did them for the trade entry but didn't add them into the pot here.
In what respect, Craig K? "Wow, ZIPS is way off," or "wow, Hanley is crazy good?"
(Sorry, had to do that. I'm more of a lurker, but I did wonder which you meant, and when I saw the name I had to ask.)
Groovy!
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