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HITTERS
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Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Justin Morneau* 1b 28 .297 .370 .523 159 599 94 178 39 3 30 125 69 86 2 2 136
Joe Mauer* c 26 .313 .403 .452 146 540 91 169 33 3 12 82 83 56 6 2 130
Jason Kubel* dh 27 .273 .335 .468 127 417 59 114 24 3 17 69 41 79 2 1 113
Michael Cuddyer rf 30 .265 .345 .433 110 400 62 106 23 4 12 62 44 81 5 1 107
Delmon Young lf 23 .291 .331 .423 160 619 79 180 34 3 14 84 35 114 13 5 101
Brendan Harris ss 28 .261 .325 .400 129 445 58 116 28 2 10 54 40 95 3 1 94
Brian Buscher* 3b 28 .270 .329 .396 130 444 50 120 21 1 11 62 36 72 3 3 94
Luke Hughes 3b 24 .258 .306 .410 95 368 53 95 15 1 13 44 24 101 5 1 90
Denard Span* cf 25 .270 .337 .369 141 529 81 143 21 5 7 54 51 100 27 12 90
Joe Crede 3b 31 .250 .303 .416 92 320 35 80 17 0 12 45 21 44 0 2 91
Brock Peterson 1b 25 .241 .298 .395 127 478 55 115 22 2 16 61 34 134 2 2 84
Carlos Gomez cf 23 .258 .304 .369 131 461 63 119 19 4 8 48 25 114 31 8 79
Alexi Casilla# 2b 24 .267 .327 .341 135 502 73 134 19 0 6 46 44 75 19 8 80
Nick Punto# ss 31 .255 .322 .344 121 404 50 103 20 5 2 31 40 70 13 5 79
Mike Redmond c 38 .284 .326 .327 48 162 15 46 7 0 0 19 8 14 0 0 76
Daniel Valencia 1b 24 .253 .291 .391 133 514 58 130 24 1 15 59 30 134 4 4 81
Alejandro Machado 2b 27 .257 .317 .340 83 268 33 69 12 2 2 24 22 38 11 4 77
David Winfree rf 23 .240 .284 .391 131 491 52 118 22 2 16 64 28 122 2 3 79
Matt Macri ss 27 .244 .293 .389 91 311 31 76 16 1 9 34 19 81 3 3 81
Matt Tolbert# 2b 27 .251 .300 .354 79 271 34 68 13 3 3 26 18 42 8 3 75
Jose Morales c 26 .264 .305 .347 70 242 21 64 11 0 3 19 12 40 1 2 75
Wilson Ramos c 21 .243 .283 .368 111 424 37 103 17 0 12 56 21 110 1 1 73
Trevor Plouffe ss 23 .250 .286 .372 128 508 63 127 28 2 10 50 25 108 6 4 75
Steve Tolleson ss 25 .242 .307 .346 106 396 45 96 18 1 7 34 36 87 12 8 75
Jason Pridie* cf 25 .245 .283 .369 147 555 70 136 18 6 13 50 29 142 22 7 74
Dustin Martin* cf 25 .238 .294 .349 117 453 46 108 20 3 8 48 33 128 15 8 72
Ben Revere* cf 21 .271 .308 .314 83 354 34 96 10 1 1 24 16 43 35 14 68
Chris Parmelee* 1b 21 .201 .268 .353 96 348 33 70 12 1 13 45 30 129 4 3 65
Deibinson Romero 3b 22 .200 .228 .271 37 140 13 28 4 0 2 10 4 47 1 2 34
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Morneau* Av
Mauer* Vg
Kubel* Pr Pr
Cuddyer Av Fr
Young Fr Pr Av
Harris Av Fr Pr
Buscher* Av Fr
Hughes Pr Fr Av
Span* Av Ex
Crede Vg
Peterson Av
Gomez Ex
Casilla# Av Fr
Punto# Av Av Av Av
Redmond Av
Valencia Vg
Machado Av Av Vg Av
Winfree Fr
Macri Av Av Fr
Tolbert# Av Av Fr
Morales Av
Ramos Vg
Plouffe Fr Av Fr
Tolleson Vg Fr Av
Pridie* Vg Vg Vg
Martin* Av Av Av
Revere* Av Av
Parmelee* Fr Fr
Romero Vg
OFFENSIVE MATRIX
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP2 COMP3
MorneauJustin 1B 54% 29% 10% 6% 1% PalmeiroRafael HeltonTodd DavisAlvin
MauerJoe C 93% 7% 0% 0% 0% SciosciaMike CochraneMickey DickeyBill
KubelJason DH 5% 32% 29% 27% 7% McCarthyJohnny BreamSid BondWalt
CuddyerMichael RF 6% 28% 25% 23% 17% CowensAl ChristopherJoe BautistaDanny
YoungDelmon LF 2% 17% 23% 27% 31% LeeCarlos VosmikJoe RudiJoe
HarrisBrendan SS 18% 27% 29% 19% 7% ScutaroMarco AlfaroJason LorettaMark
BuscherBrian 3B 2% 15% 22% 25% 35% LambMike MooreRandy AspromonteBob
SpanDenard CF 7% 11% 25% 29% 28% EllsburyJacoby GathrightJoey GwynnTony
HughesLuke 3B 2% 12% 21% 28% 37% FreeseGene CruzEnrique MartinezCarlos
CredeJoe 3B 1% 9% 21% 31% 39% CastillaVinny BellDavid LarsonBrandon
GomezCarlos CF 3% 5% 15% 27% 51% MoranJavon HunterTorii SansoeMike
CasillaAlexi 2B 2% 5% 12% 23% 58% WimberlyCorey TorresEider ThomasDerrel
PetersonBrock 1B 0% 1% 4% 20% 75% BankstonWes LiuzzaMatthew EveridgeTommy
PuntoNick SS 1% 7% 25% 39% 28% UribeJose StockerKevin PenaElvis
MachadoAlejandro 2B 0% 1% 5% 23% 71% GriffinDoug HughesRoy OrdazLuis
ValenciaDaniel 3B 0% 3% 10% 20% 67% BertoiaReno HodgesWes HamiltonJeff
RedmondMike C 0% 1% 16% 60% 24% FerrellRick HaselmanBill CeroneRick
MacriMatt SS 2% 8% 26% 39% 26% BatisteKim McNairEric UribeJuan
TolbertMatt 2B 0% 0% 3% 16% 81% CastroBernie MilbourneLarry HairstonJerry
PridieJason CF 2% 4% 11% 19% 63% BurnsGregory DickersonChristopher TimpnerClay
WinfreeDavid RF 0% 2% 4% 9% 85% PattersonRyan CorleyBrad CollaroThomas
RevereBen CF 0% 0% 1% 12% 87% WatsonBrandon GwynnTony SimonKeanon
PlouffeTrevor SS 2% 6% 15% 27% 50% ThomasAndres BrinkmanEd DonaldJason
MoralesJose C 0% 1% 8% 42% 50% KluttzClyde TaylorZack HeathMike
RamosWilson C 0% 4% 12% 29% 55% TatumCraig CastilloWelington SchmidtKonrad
TollesonSteven SS 0% 2% 14% 34% 50% DonaldJason PlouffeTrevor SullivanJohn
MartinDustin CF 1% 2% 7% 17% 72% ThomasClete PresleyAlexander NegronMiguel
ParmeleeChris 1B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% WoodardJohnny FerrisMichael RickAlan
ButeraDrew C 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% KennellyTimothy BouchieAndy OchoaBlake
RomeroDeibinson 3B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% LawhornTrevor SotoLeance MiddletonCory
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STARTERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Francisco Liriano* 25 3.76 8 6 24 24 139.0 130 58 14 49 123 114
Kevin Slowey 25 3.96 11 8 25 25 147.2 151 65 18 26 109 108
Scott Baker 27 4.27 10 9 28 28 170.2 180 81 22 40 128 100
Nick Blackburn 27 4.73 8 10 31 26 161.2 189 85 20 35 77 90
Boof Bonser 27 4.91 7 9 37 21 146.2 158 80 21 52 119 87
Jeff Manship 24 5.06 9 11 26 26 142.1 164 80 18 45 72 84
Kevin Mulvey 24 5.12 8 10 27 27 142.1 160 81 19 53 76 83
Ben Hendrickson 28 5.36 7 11 27 24 136.0 154 81 16 68 59 80
Glen Perkins* 26 5.43 5 8 28 21 122.2 141 74 22 49 74 79
R.A. Dickey 34 5.73 7 12 29 19 141.1 167 90 23 56 66 74
Phil Humber 27 5.76 6 10 27 21 118.2 129 76 26 53 98 74
Anthony Swarzak 23 5.92 5 9 24 24 127.2 152 84 22 52 68 72
Brian Duensing* 26 6.00 6 11 26 25 144.0 176 96 28 44 69 71
Jason Jones 26 6.18 6 14 27 23 137.0 170 94 25 48 57 69
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RELIEVERS
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Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Joe Nathan 34 2.25 3 1 64 0 64.0 48 16 4 17 74 190
Craig Breslow* 28 3.60 3 2 50 0 60.0 56 24 4 26 49 118
Pat Neshek 28 3.86 4 2 45 0 49.0 45 21 8 16 58 111
Robert Delaney 24 4.00 3 2 50 0 63.0 64 28 7 15 45 107
Jesse Crain 27 4.13 4 3 52 0 52.1 53 24 6 18 41 103
Matt Guerrier 30 4.40 5 4 65 0 75.2 79 37 10 28 57 97
Mike Gosling* 28 4.66 4 4 57 0 65.2 69 34 7 31 51 92
Ben Julianel* 29 4.89 2 2 38 2 53.1 56 29 6 28 38 87
Luis Ayala 31 5.18 4 5 69 0 64.1 72 37 8 22 41 82
Sean Henn* 28 5.19 1 2 20 3 34.2 38 20 3 20 22 82
Armando Gabino 25 5.28 4 5 48 0 73.1 83 43 9 32 37 81
Jose Mijares* 24 6.23 2 3 35 0 43.1 46 30 9 30 33 68
* - Throws Left
PITCHING MATRIX
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
HumberPhilip SP 2% 14% 84% TrachselSteve GagneEric BonserBoof
SwarzakAnthony SP 0% 10% 90% GutierrezJuan SmithSean HartKevin
DuensingBrian SP 1% 13% 86% AlvarezAbe TraversBill RheineckerJohn
KeppelBob SP 0% 3% 97% TalbotFred JacobsenLandon WhiteSteven
DickeyR.A. SP 0% 11% 88% DietrichBill GenewichJoe LisenbeeHod
JonesJason SP 0% 5% 95% MurphyTom WaechterDoug GothreauxJared
PerkinsGlen SP 2% 24% 73% CyrEric KoronkaJohn Van HekkenAndy
MijaresJose RP 1% 6% 93% LeiperDave CapellanJose RitchieWally
BonserBoof SP 6% 37% 56% GreifBill AshbyAndy LatmanBarry
MulveyKevin SP 4% 32% 64% PreskoJoe StaffordBill SlatonJim
BakerScott SP 28% 54% 18% BoydOil Can SandersonScott MonbouquetteBill
ManshipJeffrey SP 5% 35% 60% MurphyTom AlexanderDoyle JonesJimmy
BlackburnNick SP 9% 52% 39% LongBill SorensenLary ReitsmaChris
SloweyKevin SP 46% 44% 11% FernandezAlex ValdezIsmael MussinaMike
GuerrierMatt RP 10% 44% 46% GronkiewiczLee ChulkVinnie MathewsT.J.
AyalaLuis RP 2% 24% 73% HetkiJohnny LamabeJack GrangerWayne
NeshekPat RP 36% 42% 23% RisleyBill LigtenbergKerry RiskeDavid
HendricksonBen SP 2% 26% 72%
GabinoArmando RP 1% 20% 78% ClaggettAnthony KlineBob FitzmorrisAl
JulianelBen RP 6% 30% 64% MohlerMike StantonMike HerediaFelix
GoslingMike RP 5% 35% 60% StantonMike RadinskyScott RogersKenny
DelaneyRobert RP 23% 50% 27% LohrmanBill DavisRon GumpertRandy
CrainJesse RP 20% 51% 30% HoytLa Marr ClontzBrad WickershamDave
LirianoFrancisco SP 59% 37% 4% BurnsBritt MatlackJon PolletHowie
HennSean RP 6% 22% 72% RobertsonRich EischenJoey MunozMike
NathanJoe RP 96% 3% 0% RiveraMariano MontgomeryJeff JacksonMike
BreslowCraig RP 37% 46% 17% AgostoJuan KlineSteve HollandAl
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ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
OPS+ 140+
Morneau 47
Mauer 26
Kubel 3
OBP .400+
Mauer 61
Morneau 13
Cuddyer 2
SLG .550+
Morneau 32
Kubel 2
BA .325+
Mauer 34
Morneau 15
Young 8
2B 45+
Morneau 26
Young 12
Mauer 6
3B 5+
Pridie 68
Span 54
Punto 46
HR 30+
Morneau 48
Winfree 2
Pridie 1
SB 50+
Span 5
Revere 5
Gomez 2
ERA+ 140+ (Starters)
Liriano 13
Slowey 8
Baker 2
ERA+ 140+ (Relievers)
Nathan 89
Breslow 24
Delaney 13
K/9 9+ (Starters)
Liriano 12
Humber 7
Bonser 5
K/9 9+ (Relievers)
Nathan 86
Breslow 9
Crain 8
BB/9 1.5- (Starters)
Slowey 53
Blackburn 14
Baker 8
BB/9 1.5- (Relievers)
Delaney 19
Nathan 10
Crain 2
HR/9 0.7- (Starters)
Liriano 38
Hendrickson 23
Slowey 15
HR/9 0.7- (Relievers)
Breslow 76
Nathan 72
Crain 36
All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Run Joe Run Posted: February 25, 2009 at 05:04 PM (#3085928)Are you really arguing that Young's 50 point advantage over Gomez in OPS outweighs the defensive difference between the two? Really, over a full season, a .754 OPS versus a .696 OPS is going to add up to 15-20 runs. Gomez gets an EX in center field, while Young gets a Fr in LF.
.700 OPS with Ex CF defense < .750 OPS with Fr LF defense? Sorry, but no. That's significantly undervaluing the run prevention side of things.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course.
I think he just sorts the Hitters list by RC/27 or something - it's not intended as an overall player rating.
I very much like Mauer's #2 and #3 comps.
With Neshek, the most you can cheer for is a strong 2010.
Denard Span suddenly drawing walks has left the Twins with an interesting dilemma. If 2008 wasn't a fluke, the team has a centerfielder clearly better than Gomez. Trying to win now, Span's the better bet in centerfielder and the team's offense is top-heavy enough that they can't really risk playing Span in a corner.
If the team is better (offense+defense) with Gomez on the field than Young (and ZIPS is projecting that very scenario), then they can and should "risk" playing Span in a corner in lieu of Delmon Young.
I'm just saying that Dan's comment here doesn't really match up with what ZIPS is saying.
True, but from an opposing perspective, the lineup gets a lot less scary without Morneau in it. Other than Morneau, the Twins lack a legitimate power threat.
I wouldn't go quite that far - but I'd think he'd need five more REALLY good seasons.
-------------
I wouldn't go quite that far - but I'd think he'd need five more REALLY good seasons.
Five more good seasons and you can start to talk about it. That's still only maybe 400 saves, which won't be a guarantee by any means. A couple of ok seasons after that and he'll have a shot. Unfortunately, Nathan started too late to get there. It might be 100 to 1 shot to be an effective closer at age 40 without a major injury in his career.
I'd imagine Humber will slide into Bonser's role, since he's out of options.
SP-"Light Rail" Baker
SP-Francisco Liriano
SP-Kevin Slowey
SP-Nick Blackburn
SP-Glen Perkins
Closer-Joe Nathan
RP-Jesse Crain
RP-Shaggy Guerrier
RP-Craig Breslow
RP-Luis Ayala
RP-Philip Humber/Jose Mijares
Dan, can you explain why Baker's ERA is projected to be much higher than Slowey's despite better peripherals? Light Rail Baker is really one of the most reliable, underrated pitchers around - a perfect successor to Brad Radke in poise and anonymity.
I'm still worried about the bullpen. This is going to be a run-prevention team if it is going to win. Having young pitching leaves open the hope that they will improve enough to make up for Punto, Span, and Casilla not hitting as well as last year. But if the bullpen is as inconsistent as it was last year, I would worry that the optimism is unwarranted.
Every year I think, "not having that drag on the lineup will inevitably cause a nice bounce." Batista was so bad, that I assumed having him out of the lineup would add 20 runs. Then Rondell replaced his crater. Then Lamb replaced Rondell's crater. If they can avoid playing anyone this year long enough to put up a -30 VORP, they will be getting somewhere. Obviously, Punto is a prime candidate, but we'll see how it plays out.
Delmon's projection doesn't really show any growth. Those are essentially the numbers he put up after the first month of the season. After he bottomed out, he was about a .290/.330/.420 hitter, which is not good for a lead-gloved corner OF. I like seeing Carlos Lee as a comp, because he's at least a useful player, but I'm afraid that he'll be long gone by the time he reaches that level if he doesn't start showing growth quickly. He has not made friends on high places on this team.
Given the projected peripherals (including hits), Baker's peripherals suggest an ERA 0.42 runs worse than Slowey's.
That's not true.
I agree, but I think Ayala has a pretty good chance to have a nice rebound year, and that he'd be really nice to have around. Maybe that's only a 1 in 3 chance that he's anything special next year, but that's better odds than I'd give Guerrier or Humber. With Boof out, they could still sign Cruz if they wanted. Nathan, Cruz, Crain, Ayala, Guerrier, and Breslow, with Humber and Mijares fighting for the 12th spot or injury replacements. Actually to put it another way, who would you rather have as the 25th guy on the team, Juan Cruz, Buscher, Tolbert, or the lesser of Humber or Mijares? Cruz would be my choice any day of the week, but I'm not sure they can acquire him.
That's because since partway into his 2005 season with Montgomery when he abandoned his patience completely he hasn't shown any real growth. For the past three and a half seasons he has more or less been the same player.
His top 5 PECOTA comparables are pretty fun:
1. Jeff Francouer
2. Shawn Green
3. Sean Burroughs
4. Darin Erstad
5. Nick Markakis
His similarity index is very low though.
Joe Rudi was a pretty good player, too.
Delmon - along with Elijah Dukes and BJ Upton - pretty much ran over John Tamargo at Durham in his last full minor league season. Those three and Darnell McDonald were basically a team unto themselves. It wasn't just the bat-throwing incident (Delmon), the DUI in the wee hours in Chapel Hill (Upton) and fighting a coach (Dukes) - it was a season-long pattern of behaviorial issues for all of them. None of them listened to ANYONE in authority - and you could see it on the field. Bascially, Delmon needs a wakeup call. The talent is definitely there; he made as much hard contact as any minor league hitter I have seen. But the self-discipline isn't.
-- MWE
Probably not a bad way to break Humber in, either, throwing mostly low-leverage relief. Bonser didn't pitch very often in high-leverage situations once he came out of the rotation at the end of May. In the long run, I see Humber as being a late-inning reliever, probably a 7th-inning or 8th-inning guy.
-- MWE
Good thing the Twins picked Humber instead of Pelfrey otherwise they would would have been stuck with a 2/3 starter instead of having a late-inning reliever
Pelfrey was never an option. Minaya made it clear neither FMart or Pelfrey were available.
Most reports I saw said Pelfrey was offered, but the Twins didn't want him.
There were a ton of BS reports, I could have remembered it wrong, but I thought Metsblog kept saying they would not include Pelfrey in a deal.
It was a story when the Twins changed their demands so Reyes didn't have to be involved. It then moved to FMart needing to be included among Guerra, Mulvey, Humber and Gomez.
Not seeing a whole lot else mentioned. It is amusing to see all the ESPN analysts say the Mets don't have the farm system, and they lack a stud like Hughes.
I don't know where you saw those reports, but the folks I know in the Mets' organization have been saying all along that FMart and Pelfrey (along with Niese) were untouchable.
-- MWE
Deferred Fixed Annuity
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