BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2009 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 05, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

If luck truly is the residue of design, Bill Bavasi, Buzzie’s Other Idiot Son, truly created a Dionysian revel of misfortune in 2008.

The Mariners’ roster moves over the last year were made based on the false impression that the Mariners were a solid playoff team, in contention for a playoff run. They weren’t and the assumptions weren’t just wrong on the team level, but the individual level as well. So, what made up the Mulligan stew of wishcasting and stupidity? Let us count the ways.

- There was no need to have a Plan B for either Jose Vidro or Richie Sexson. Sure, Sexson’s career numbers were dropping faster than the Dow and Vidro had become virtually immobile in the field and swung a bat like the doughnuts were still on the end, but it’ll all be OK.

After Sexson and Vidro were terrible, the Mariners demonstrated their lack of planning by the spectacle of Miguel Cairo getting the most 1B starts after Sexson was mercifully dumped. As for designated hitter, the Mariners were reduced to randomly dropping players there, from their top catching prospect, blocked by a ridiculous decision to sign Johjima for 3 more years, to middle infielders ranging from Jose Lopez to Tug Hulett.

- Injury-prone Erik Bedard is totally never going to be injured again and as for the rest of the rotation, we’ll hind under a pile of coats and it will just somehow work out.

It didn’t. King Felix was very good and rewarded with a 9-11 record for his efforts. Bedard was good when he actually pitched and the media turned against him as if it was his fault that he’s fragile and the Mariners placed unrealistic expectations on his dependability. If I trade my grocery money for a plasma TV, it’s not Best Buy’s fault when I’m eating ramen noodles for a month.

- Betancourt and Lopez are a dynamic middle-infield duo and should join Beltre as players that deserve Gold Gloves and no ground ball will ever get through the infield!

The Mariners feel that Hispanic Infielders + Poor Plate Approach = Awesome Defense.

We could go on and on. From top to bottom, Bavasi did a poor evaluation of the team’s strengths, weaknesses, needs, and inveitably made poor decision after poor decision. Jack Zduriencik deserves a very long leash as he’s been left with a very tall order.

The Mariners do have some very good offensive prospects, but most aren’t realistically ready to play in the majors right now and have some major question in their game to be resolved. I’ve seen some incredibly optimistic evaluations of the Mariners on the web (don’t worry, not the USS Mariner gang) that argue that the Mariners will compete in the next couple years with Halman/Saunders/Triunfel/Wilson all being starters, Ichiro having no decline, and Hernandez/Bedard/Morrow becoming Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine. A few of these things will happen, but not all of them, and the Mariners need to proceed from here with realistic goals for a change.

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CATCHERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Jeff Clement* c 25 .253 .330 .445 127 443 58 112 26 1 19 68 45 96 0 1 106 Fr
Adam Moore c 25 .267 .321 .413 122 465 46 124 24 1 14 61 31 95 0 1 96 Fr

FAIR
Rob Johnson c 25 .266 .316 .356 123 455 50 121 23 0 6 47 32 68 6 5 81 Av
Jamie Burke c 37 .275 .324 .353 49 102 13 28 5 0 1 10 6 12 0 1 82 Av

POOR
Kenji Johjima c 33 .251 .296 .362 104 362 31 91 19 0 7 40 15 32 0 1 76 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
FIRST BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .230 .326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Av

POOR
Jose Vidro# dh 34 .273 .336 .373 90 330 39 90 15 0 6 37 32 40 0 0 91 Pr
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Av
Craig Wilson 1b 32 .225 .319 .388 80 258 32 58 10 1 10 34 25 90 2 1 89 Av
Bryan LaHair* 1b 26 .251 .311 .380 126 466 49 117 24 0 12 57 39 116 0 0 85 Av
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Av
Jamie Burke c 37 .275 .324 .353 49 102 13 28 5 0 1 10 6 12 0 1 82 Fr
Shawn Garrett# rf 30 .243 .290 .358 111 419 44 102 19 1 9 46 25 99 5 2 73 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SECOND BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Jose Lopez 2b 25 .284 .315 .416 155 599 75 170 31 3 14 77 25 72 5 3 95 Av

FAIR
Tug Hulett* ss 26 .248 .322 .366 130 467 65 116 22 3 9 52 49 107 14 5 85 Vg

POOR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Luis Valbuena* 2b 23 .255 .312 .363 134 482 61 123 20 1 10 54 40 82 17 6 81 Vg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Av
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av
Carlos Triunfel ss 19 .248 .285 .316 105 427 45 106 15 1 4 37 20 55 19 13 62 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
THIRD BASEMEN
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .230 .326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Fr

AVERAGE
Adrian Beltre 3b 30 .264 .320 .449 147 579 78 153 34 2 23 87 45 101 9 3 104 Ex
———————————————————————————————————————————————————

FAIR
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Av

POOR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Matt Tuiasosopo 3b 23 .244 .311 .364 126 483 68 118 24 2 10 54 40 112 4 2 81 Av
Luis Valbuena* 2b 23 .255 .312 .363 134 482 61 123 20 1 10 54 40 82 17 6 81 Vg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Fr
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
SHORTSTOPS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Fr
Tug Hulett* ss 26 .248 .322 .366 130 467 65 116 22 3 9 52 49 107 14 5 85 Av

FAIR
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Av
Yuniesky Betancourt* ss 27 .280 .301 .389 157 560 67 157 34 3 7 61 17 48 7 4 84 Fr

POOR
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Pr
Oswaldo Navarro ss 24 .250 .301 .312 124 436 47 109 18 0 3 37 28 83 6 2 65 Av
Carlos Triunfel ss 19 .248 .285 .316 105 427 45 106 15 1 4 37 20 55 19 13 62 Fr

————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
CORNER OUTFIELDERS
————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ LF RF

AVERAGE
Ichiro Suzuki* cf 35 .304 .354 .383 152 648 94 197 21 6 6 68 47 67 35 4 98 Vg
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Raul Ibanez* lf 37 .268 .331 .438 148 575 71 154 35 3 19 83 53 102 0 1 105 Pr
Russell Branyan* 3b 33 .230 .326 .452 92 239 30 55 11 0 14 42 33 89 3 0 105 Fr Fr

POOR
Wladimir Balentien rf 24 .240 .300 .427 133 501 66 120 23 1 23 76 44 119 10 5 93 Av Av
Michael Morse 3b 27 .267 .317 .387 79 266 29 71 17 0 5 31 18 50 2 1 88 Fr Fr
Craig Wilson 1b 32 .225 .319 .388 80 258 32 58 10 1 10 34 25 90 2 1 89 Pr Pr
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .268 .315 .383 119 418 52 112 21 3 7 47 28 55 7 4 87 Vg Vg
Bryan LaHair* 1b 26 .251 .311 .380 126 466 49 117 24 0 12 57 39 116 0 0 85 Av
Michael Wilson# rf 26 .228 .301 .407 102 369 43 84 16 1 16 54 32 114 6 2 88 Av Av
Prentice Redman cf 29 .248 .315 .389 112 411 53 102 20 1 12 53 36 83 6 5 88 Vg Vg
Victor Diaz rf 27 .242 .298 .397 122 451 44 109 22 0 16 60 34 141 5 1 85 Fr Pr
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Vg Vg
Miguel Cairo 1b 35 .255 .316 .332 89 208 29 53 12 2 0 18 16 32 8 1 75 Av Av
Michael Saunders* cf 22 .244 .303 .370 105 422 53 103 18 1 11 51 33 112 21 9 80 Vg Vg
Shawn Garrett# rf 30 .243 .290 .358 111 419 44 102 19 1 9 46 25 99 5 2 73 Fr Fr
Greg Halman cf 21 .225 .264 .387 123 480 55 108 19 1 19 64 20 138 30 12 72 Av Av
Charlton Jimerson cf 29 .219 .256 .376 97 356 33 78 15 1 13 46 15 134 22 7 67 Vg Vg

———————————————————————————————————————————————————
CENTERFIELDERS
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ RNG

VERY GOOD
Ichiro Suzuki* cf 35 .304 .354 .383 152 648 94 197 21 6 6 68 47 67 35 4 98 Av

AVERAGE
———————————————————————————————————————————————————
Wladimir Balentien rf 24 .240 .300 .427 133 501 66 120 23 1 23 76 44 119 10 5 93 Fr
Jeremy Reed* cf 28 .268 .315 .383 119 418 52 112 21 3 7 47 28 55 7 4 87 Av

FAIR
Prentice Redman cf 29 .248 .315 .389 112 411 53 102 20 1 12 53 36 83 6 5 88 Fr
Willie Bloomquist cf 31 .268 .342 .316 92 209 34 56 5 1 1 18 22 36 12 3 79 Fr

POOR
Michael Saunders* cf 22 .244 .303 .370 105 422 53 103 18 1 11 51 33 112 21 9 80 Av
Greg Halman cf 21 .225 .264 .387 123 480 55 108 19 1 19 64 20 138 30 12 72 Av
Charlton Jimerson cf 29 .219 .256 .376 97 356 33 78 15 1 13 46 15 134 22 7 67 Vg

—————————————————————————————————————————————
STARTERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

TOP THIRD
Erik Bedard* 30 3.33 10 6 23 23 138.0 116 51 13 53 161 128
Felix Hernandez 23 3.77 12 9 32 32 210.0 210 88 16 70 175 113
Brandon Morrow 24 3.99 11 10 29 29 178.0 159 79 20 84 169 107

MIDDLE THIRD
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Jarrod Washburn* 34 4.73 8 11 27 26 158.0 175 83 20 48 92 90

BOTTOM THIRD
Robert Rohrbaugh* 25 5.14 6 9 22 21 119.0 140 68 15 35 67 83
Miguel Batista 38 5.27 6 11 36 23 140.0 159 82 18 72 86 81
Andrew Baldwin 26 5.30 6 11 29 23 158.0 197 93 20 36 73 81
Ryan Feierabend* 23 5.50 4 8 22 22 121.0 150 74 16 35 61 77
Carlos Silva 30 5.56 7 14 28 27 157.0 203 97 22 30 74 77
R.A. Dickey 34 5.65 6 11 29 19 137.0 162 86 22 54 69 75
Sean White 28 5.97 3 8 20 14 95.0 124 63 11 41 34 71
Gaby Hernandez 23 5.98 5 11 24 24 125.0 153 83 22 50 656 71
Justin Thomas* 25 6.15 5 12 31 22 136.0 163 93 22 68 87 69

—————————————————————————————————————————————
RELIEVERS
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+

TOP THIRD
J.J. Putz 32 2.64 6 2 57 0 58.0 46 17 4 19 71 162

MIDDLE THIRD
—————————————————————————————————————————————
Sean Green 30 4.14 5 4 65 0 76.0 78 35 2 38 51 103
Roy Corcoran 29 4.26 5 4 60 0 74.0 75 35 3 46 51 100

BOTTOM THIRD
Ryan Rowland-Smith* 26 4.41 4 4 47 7 98.0 100 48 12 43 72 97
Mark Lowe 26 4.50 2 2 41 1 50.0 51 25 4 27 42 95
Cesar Jimenez* 24 4.50 2 3 43 1 52.0 56 26 5 18 43 95
Randy Messenger 27 4.94 4 6 59 0 71.0 82 39 7 26 40 86
Marwin Vega 22 5.63 3 7 39 11 96.0 111 60 12 53 42 76
Jake Woods* 27 5.64 3 6 36 8 91.0 107 57 12 43 56 76
Nicholas Hill* 24 5.68 3 5 35 6 76.0 88 48 12 33 38 75
Jared Wells 27 6.16 3 7 47 10 92.0 109 63 13 55 60 69

* - Throws Left

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Michael Wilson (RF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .228 .301 .407 102 369 43 84 16 1 16 54 32 114 6 2 88

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Joe Borchard, Melvin Nieves

Offense %
STAR 11
AVG 23
REP LV 57

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0
>140 2 >.375 0 >5 7 >150 0
>120 11 >.350 5
>100 32 >.325 22 2B %
>80 65 >.300 54 >45 0
>60 88 >30 0

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 3 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 0 >.500 12 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 1 >.450 26 >30 0 >30 0
>.275 6 >.400 53 >20 23 >10 25
>.250 24 >.350 80 >10 84

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Ichiro Suzuki (CF)
AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Projection .309 .358 .384 152 648 95 200 19 6 6 68 47 66 36 4 100

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Brett Butler, Sam Rice

Offense %
STAR 39
AVG 86
REP LV 100

OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 3 >10 4 >200 38
>140 0 >.375 22 >5 57 >150 100
>120 6 >.350 62
>100 46 >.325 91 2B %
>80 91 >.300 100 >45 0
>60 100 >30 2

BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 1 >.550 0 >50 0 >70 2
>.325 15 >.500 0 >40 0 >50 15
>.300 58 >.450 3 >30 0 >30 74
>.275 88 >.400 25 >20 0 >10 100
>.250 100 >.350 81 >10 14

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Felix Hernandez
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.77 12 9 32 32 210 210 88 16 70 175 113

Top Near-Age Comps: Bert Blyleven, Larry Dierker

ERA %
Top 1/3 58
Mid 1/3 31
Bot 1/3 11

ERA+ % BB %
>150 6

<35 4
>

140 11

<47 18
>

130 20

<58 36
>

120 34

<70 50
>

110 52

<82 70
>

100 69

<93 86
>

90 86
>80 96 HR %
>70 100 <16 45
<23 79
K % <30 96
>210 7 <37 100
>187 24
>163 59
>140 88

——————————————————————-

Player Spotlight - Erik Bedard
ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Projection 3.33 10 6 23 23 138 116 51 13 53 161 128

Top Near-Age Comps: Hal Newhouser, Bobby Ojeda

ERA %
Top 1/3 72
Mid 1/3 21
Bot 1/3 7

ERA+ % BB %
>150 19 <23 0
>140 27 <31 2
>130 38 <38 11
>120 51 <46 23
>110 67 <54 58
>100 81 <61 79
>90 92
>80 98 HR %
>70 100 <11 27
<15 60
K % <20 84
>138 78 <25 97
>123 91
>107 100
>92 100

——————————————————————-

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

OPS+ >140

Clement 8
Ibanez 5
Beltre 4

OBP >.400

Suzuki 3
Clement 2
Bloomquist 1

SLG >.550

Clement 6
Ibanez 3
Wilson 3

BA >.325

Suzuki 15
Vidro 8
Betancourt 7

2B >45

Ibanez 17
Betancourt 7
Lopez 6

3B >10

Lopez 6
Suzuki 4
Betancourt 1

HR >30

Beltre 18
Balentien 17
Diaz 9

SB >50

Suzuki 15
Halman 5
Saunders 1

ERA+ >140

Putz 74
Bedard 27
Hernandez 12

K/9 >9

Putz 88
Bedard 74
Morrow 34

BB/9 <1.5

Silva 34
Baldwin 16
Feierabend 9

HR/9 <0.7

Green 97
Corcoran 94
Putz 61

All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

ZiPS Frequently Asked Questions

ZiPS 2009 Archive

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Giants

Dodgers

Diamondbacks

Cubs

Cardinals

Brewers

Braves

Blue Jays

A’s

Astros

Angels

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 05, 2008 at 03:54 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Davo Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:20 PM (#3021505)

That Branyan signing looks huge with this bunch, heh.

2. The District Attorney Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:32 PM (#3021514)

If Tug Hulett is average at 6 years old, imagine how great he'll be once he hits his prime!!

3. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:36 PM (#3021518)

Vidro is bouncing back with a Super-Bondsian .630 OBP.

And Branyan managed to be rated higher than Beltre with worse defense and an identical OPS (even in terms of proportions).

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#3021520)

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

5. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:40 PM (#3021523)

Fixed Hulett's age and Vidro's OBP.

6. The District Attorney Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:42 PM (#3021524)

Oh, you're no fun anymore.

7. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#3021525)

Fixed... Vidro's OBP.

Now, if Jose can just get that SLG up...

8. RJ in TO Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:43 PM (#3021527)

There's a minor disagreement between Ichiro's numbers in the positional list, and in the breakout - it's just a couple hits, but it's there.

Also, does the positional value (VERY GOOD, EXCELLENT, AVERAGE) take into account the fielding aspects? If so, I was wondering if you could explain how Beltre with his 104 OPS+ and Excellent defense is AVERAGE, whereas Branyon with his 105 OPS+ and Fair defense is VERY GOOD. I apologize if I've just missed an already existing explanation.

9. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#3021528)

Also, does the positional value (VERY GOOD, EXCELLENT, AVERAGE) take into account the fielding aspects?

No, just the bat.

10. RJ in TO Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#3021529)

Great. Dan points out what I missed while I was typing my question and there's no way for me to edit my post here.

11. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#3021533)

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27...

Ahh. Fair enough.

12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#3021534)

I was wondering if you could explain how Beltre with his 104 OPS+ and Excellent defense is AVERAGE, whereas Branyon with his 105 OPS+ and Fair defense is VERY GOOD

Also, the OPS+ difference of 1 understates Branyan's superiority with the bat. His OBP is slightly higher (.006) & his isolated power is much higher (.037)

13. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:18 PM (#3021559)

Wow. When Willie Bloomquist prjects to have your team's second best OBP, you're in alot of trouble.

14. My name is Votto, and I love to get Moppo Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:27 PM (#3021569)

Ichiro projected for less than 200 hits?

15. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2008 at 06:47 PM (#3021660)

MY GOD!

That's truly horrific. How is it possible for a team to have only 2 corner players in the whole organization who project above "poor"? And that's putting Ichiro in RF. Only 3 starters and 1 reliever who project above-average? The Royals might have more talent.

I was gonna ask about the crappy Ichiro projection but hadn't realized how "meh" he was 2 of the last 3 seasons. Toss in age-related decline and that's about right. There doesn't seem any reason not to keep him in CF.

Top Near-Age Comps: Bert Blyleven, Larry Dierker

So either Felix's arm is about to fall off or he's going to have an overlooked HoF-worthy career.

16. Posada Posse Posted: December 05, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#3021672)

Wow, Bedard with 161 K's in 138 innings. Talk about a million dollar arm with a five cent head.

17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#3021680)

That's truly horrific. How is it possible for a team to have only 2 corner players in the whole organization who project above "poor"?

Yeah, when your second best offensive player is a $1.5M scrap-heap signing, you've got some heavy lifting to do.

Even in baseball video games this team takes 5-years to turn around.

18. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 05, 2008 at 07:38 PM (#3021702)

You know, if they sign Dunn to play 1B, Giambi to DH, and Abreu for OF, they might have an ok offense.

19. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 05, 2008 at 08:09 PM (#3021729)

Ichiro must have better than a 38% chance of getting 200 hits, considering he's eight for eight in that category...

20. fret Posted: December 05, 2008 at 08:46 PM (#3021761)

Not to defend Bavasi, but the Mariners had pretty awful luck this year to go along with their bad decisions.

The RLYW preseason simulations had them at 77 wins (and, by contrast, the Rays at 82 wins). Without going through all 30 teams, I would guess that only the Padres underperformed their projection by more. Of course, that's no consolation for next year.

What do people know about Adam Moore? I see that he just spent a year at AA, throwing out 35% of basestealers. How is his fielding?

21. Kyle S at work Posted: December 05, 2008 at 08:47 PM (#3021763)

That's a pretty fantastic projection for Morrow. I seem to think he's worth keeping for 2 bucks. Much moreso than LaPorta, at least.

22. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 05, 2008 at 08:57 PM (#3021771)

Ichiro must have better than a 38% chance of getting 200 hits, considering he's eight for eight in that category...

Why? He's 35. He's not going to get 200 hits some year, right?

By the way, is eight straight years with 200+ the record?

23. Danny Posted: December 05, 2008 at 09:00 PM (#3021775)

I know he's old, but that's a pretty sharp dropoff for Ibanez.

OPS+
2006: 125
2007: 121
2008: 124
2009: 105 (projected)

24. RJ in TO Posted: December 05, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#3021779)

I know he's old, but that's a pretty sharp dropoff for Ibanez.

Not only is he old, but he was also a late bloomer, and he's a terrible fielder and a not exactly graceful baserunner. There are a lot of potential warning signs around him, which have been shown by other players who have suffered rapid declines.

Even if he drops to a 105 OPS+, however, he'd still be an upgrade for a couple teams.

25. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 05, 2008 at 11:47 PM (#3021909)

So the Mariners have 4 catchers, including 37-year-old Jamie Burke, that project better than does Johjima?

Ouch.

26. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 06, 2008 at 12:40 AM (#3021927)

Ichiro must have better than a 38% chance of getting 200 hits, considering he's eight for eight in that category...

Why? He's 35. He's not going to get 200 hits some year, right?

By the way, is eight straight years with 200+ the record?

Sure, but that projection basically gives him only a one in three chance of making it, and that seems silly to me, especially considering how driven Ichiro is to get that particular milestone each year.

Yes, Ichiro and Willie Keeler share the record.

27. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 06, 2008 at 01:53 AM (#3021956)

Don't forget, that's his chances of making it at that projected playing time - if it was projecting 162 games, which most projection systems wouldn't do, the projection would be 210, not 197 hits.

28. RollingWave Posted: December 06, 2008 at 06:49 AM (#3022015)

well, there's also that epic Carlos Silva signing based on the double wammy epic failed logic that their no hit middle infield were awsome fielders and that Carlos Silva is a good pitcher.

(to be fair though, the bad luck made it look even more hilarious)

29. vortex of dissipation Posted: December 06, 2008 at 06:53 AM (#3022017)

Don't forget, that's his chances of making it at that projected playing time - if it was projecting 162 games, which most projection systems wouldn't do, the projection would be 210, not 197 hits.

Ah, OK. Thanks very much for the clarification.

I'm certainly not dumb enough to say that Ichiro won't get hurt, but based on his conditioning and past record, I wouldn't think there would be anyone else in baseball who is as likely to play 160 games year-in-and year out as he is.

30. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 06, 2008 at 07:13 AM (#3022022)

If Ichiro plays CF Russell Branyan's their best option at five positions. That can't be good.

31. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2008 at 08:34 AM (#3022031)

If Ichiro plays CF Russell Branyan's their best option at five positions. That can't be good.

True. He's not very good fielding just one position, I think he'd have a lot of trouble fielding five.

32. Shockliacci Posted: December 06, 2008 at 10:26 AM (#3022034)

Wow, I knew Johjima sucked last year, but ... wow.

It's hard to believe that at this time last year most of the media had the Mariners as contenders. Jesus that's a bad team.

33. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 06, 2008 at 01:12 PM (#3022040)

True. He's not very good fielding just one position, I think he'd have a lot of trouble fielding five.

I doubt he'd have too much trouble handling DH defensively

34. BFFB

Posted: December 06, 2008 at 01:27 PM (#3022043)

those benches can be tricky things

35. JoeHova Posted: December 06, 2008 at 03:22 PM (#3022057)

I always felt that Branyan's defensive woes were overstated. He's no butcher out there at any spot. No reason he won't be able to be an average first baseman defensively.

36. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2008 at 04:05 PM (#3022071)

If Ichiro plays CF Russell Branyan's their best option at five positions. That can't be good.

And their cleanup hitter.

37. bookbook Posted: December 07, 2008 at 06:04 AM (#3022283)

You pessimists are looking at this the wrong way. The new team has only been in place for a matter of weeks and they've already signed the best option at 5 positions (and the clean up hitter!) for 1.5 million!!!

Just imagine what they'll do with a whole offseason.

Calling an arm that's only attached by the thread of the shirtsleeve a "million dollar" arm seems to overstate the case.

38. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 08, 2008 at 03:20 AM (#3022624)

Even in baseball video games this team takes 5-years to turn around.

I could get it done in MVP 2004 in two, tops. Might even make the playoffs the first year if I get to sign Burnitz.

Anyway, last spring I was almost assaulted by some meathead in a bar when I asserted that the Mariners were more likely to finish last in 2008 than make the playoffs. I wish I could meet that guy again.

39. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 08, 2008 at 03:36 AM (#3022635)

Amazing, they have exactly two players under 33 years old who project as better than "AVERAGE". And both of them are catchers.

The Bedard deal was even worse than we thought; even in the process of choosing how to grossly overpay for Bedard, they failed to assess their organizational depth properly and now their only two prospects are both blocked by Kenji Johjima and/or each other.

40. Frisco Cali Posted: December 08, 2008 at 03:55 AM (#3022641)

I wish I could meet that guy again

Yeah. Cuz I'm sure he's really cool now.

41. Herr Mike Posted: December 11, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#3026044)

I just looked at the Marlins porjections and I'm surprised to see Morrow ranked higher than Nolasco. Morrow will pick up a few more K's but Nolasco walked 42 guys in 212 IP. That's 8 more than Morrow did in 64 IP.

42. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 11, 2008 at 03:19 PM (#3026070)

Geez, Felix is still only 23?

43. Jack Sommers Posted: January 20, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3055905)

Dan, any chance you can fix that Gaby Hernandez K projection. Thanks. ;)

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Friday, December 05, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

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