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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, November 30, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee’s plan for 2010 turned out to be ill-fated, but even in hindsight, it really wasn’t all that awful. As far as I can tell, the Brewers hoped to win a fairly weak division by their star hitters having star years, a good offensive supporting cast helping the team to be a Top 5 offense, a pitching staff with Yovani Gallardo having a full, star season, book-ended by Trevor Hoffman and his ageless changeup, with enough inning-eaters in the middle to keep the staff in the middle of the pack. All that works out and you have a 90-win team, formidable in the NL Central.
It didn’t, though. Randy Wolf, David Bush, and Chris Narveson ate a lot of innings, but threw too many of them back up on the mound. Doug Davis, after only missing a few starts in 6 years and a 4.12 ERA, had a year so bad that it broke his heart, literally, and the elbow finished his year off. Trevor Hoffman’s changeup, the best or second-best closer changeup that I’ve ever seen (Doug Jones puts up a fight), had some problems hitting his spots, which has a tendency to turn changes-in-speed into changes-in-eventual-ball-location. The emergence of John Axford, whose control finally clicked, and Zach Braddock, always a good arm that will stay in relief due to injury concerns, probably saved the bullpen from reaching Diamondback levels of ugly. After all that, the stars on the team needed to have STAR years rather than the merely run-of-the-mill awesomness that Fielder and Braun provided.
The good news for the Brewers is that the offense stays intact, at least for one more season. The bad news is that there doesn’t look to be much the Brewers can really do to turn the pitching around. The meager scraps available on the free-agent market are quickly have mostly been scooped up. As Milwaukee isn’t going to sign Cliff Lee, the only thing they can really do is try to get into the high-upside risks like Brandon Webb or Rich Harden and hope the dice come up better this year. Even that may be a stretch as most teams that need pitching are going to have to go this route if they don’t have internal options.
Right now, this is looking like a very .500 team.
Next up: Baltimore
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Prince Fielder L 1B 27 .274 .399 .530 156 562 92 154 28 1 38 104 105 136 2 1 148 Ryan Braun R LF 27 .295 .355 .525 156 621 98 183 40 5 31 108 52 120 18 5 133 Corey Hart R RF 29 .272 .327 .480 145 548 79 149 35 5 23 84 41 116 13 6 114 Rickie Weeks R 2B 28 .249 .352 .436 119 466 81 116 22 4 19 56 59 130 13 4 111 Mat Gamel L 3B 25 .265 .337 .430 144 509 69 135 30 3 16 79 53 141 4 3 105 Casey McGehee R 3B 28 .272 .322 .430 145 530 60 144 31 1 17 86 41 97 1 2 101 Gregg Zaun B C 40 .255 .341 .403 47 149 18 38 10 0 4 21 17 25 0 1 100 Angel Salome R DH 25 .268 .312 .401 99 362 40 97 22 1 8 54 23 71 1 1 90 Chris Dickerson L CF 29 .238 .326 .383 94 282 40 67 12 4 7 26 36 94 16 6 90 Kentrail Davis L RF 23 .248 .335 .369 115 452 64 112 28 9 3 59 46 92 9 3 90 Alcides Escobar R SS 24 .269 .315 .368 156 576 78 155 23 8 6 52 36 84 24 7 83 George Kottaras L C 28 .230 .315 .398 76 244 28 56 15 1 8 29 32 61 1 0 91 Caleb Gindl L RF 22 .251 .320 .384 147 541 61 136 30 3 12 68 53 120 14 7 89 Joe Inglett L RF 33 .266 .326 .375 101 256 30 68 12 5 2 21 21 42 4 3 88 Brendan Katin R RF 28 .227 .291 .429 112 396 50 90 22 2 18 65 28 135 3 1 91 Jonathan Lucroy R C 25 .256 .318 .377 137 504 53 129 26 1 11 61 46 91 5 2 87 Brett Lawrie R 2B 21 .254 .309 .400 156 623 78 158 32 13 11 69 46 153 25 15 89 Lorenzo Cain R CF 25 .254 .317 .355 126 484 57 123 23 7 4 39 41 118 21 5 81 Carlos Gomez R CF 25 .249 .305 .360 144 430 59 107 18 6 6 39 29 103 27 8 78 Taylor Green L 3B 24 .247 .311 .380 127 461 45 114 26 1 11 71 42 85 1 3 85 Eric Farris R 2B 25 .265 .296 .339 108 437 51 116 16 2 4 34 17 53 29 6 71 Joe Koshansky L 1B 29 .216 .304 .393 132 453 56 98 21 1 19 72 53 171 3 2 86 Craig Counsell L SS 40 .259 .326 .351 103 259 27 67 11 2 3 26 24 36 2 2 83 Erick Almonte R 1B 33 .253 .317 .335 104 316 30 80 15 1 3 31 28 64 3 1 76 Luis Cruz R SS 27 .257 .287 .372 134 478 51 123 28 3 7 53 16 58 2 2 76 Zelous Wheeler R SS 24 .239 .321 .343 153 557 63 133 25 3 9 68 58 121 9 7 79 Adam Stern L LF 31 .254 .305 .342 88 319 40 81 13 3 3 23 23 57 10 5 74 Chris Nowak R 1B 28 .232 .296 .338 119 453 49 105 21 3 7 52 38 113 7 2 70 Norris Hopper R CF 32 .265 .308 .299 97 355 37 94 10 1 0 21 22 33 13 6 65 Ray Olmedo B 2B 30 .252 .289 .335 116 409 44 103 16 3 4 40 19 67 8 8 67 Anderson Machado B SS 30 .203 .292 .297 88 236 21 48 12 2 2 20 29 73 3 1 59 Martin Maldonado R C 24 .223 .286 .311 103 328 25 73 14 0 5 33 24 85 2 3 61 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Prince Fielder FR/107 Ryan Braun AV /48 Corey Hart AV/100 Rickie Weeks AV/139 Mat Gamel FR/168 Casey McGehee AV/104 PO/116 FR/104 Gregg Zaun FR Angel Salome FR FR/113 Chris Dickerson VG/127 FR/82 AV/131 Kentrail Davis FR/143 AV/134 Alcides Escobar VG/86 VG/108 George Kottaras FR Caleb Gindl FR/173 FR/139 FR/173 Joe Inglett AV/148 AV/112 PO/121 AV/127 AV/141 Brendan Katin FR/187 FR/195 Jonathan Lucroy VG Brett Lawrie AV/201 Lorenzo Cain VG/106 AV/154 VG/106 Carlos Gomez VG/140 Taylor Green AV/107 AV/133 Eric Farris AV/134 FR/114 Joe Koshansky AV/118 Craig Counsell VG/82 AV/108 AV/89 Erick Almonte AV/134 FR/122 PO/112 FR/109 AV/114 Luis Cruz VG/127 VG/118 VG/124 AV/111 AV/113 AV/113 AV/113 Zelous Wheeler FR/125 AV/113 PO/176 AV/123 Adam Stern AV/63 PO/92 AV/87 Chris Nowak AV/152 FR/105 FR/109 Norris Hopper VG/98 VG/86 VG/88 Ray Olmedo AV/112 FR/109 PO/137 AV/129 Anderson Machado AV/130 FR/154 AV/117 FR/164 AV/114 Martin Maldonado VG Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Yovani Gallardo R 25 3.49 12 7 26 26 159.7 139 62 14 68 176 117 Randy Wolf L 34 4.09 12 10 32 32 198.0 189 90 24 72 150 100 Chris Capuano L 32 4.22 7 6 28 17 111.0 111 52 13 35 92 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Doug Davis L 35 4.50 7 7 21 21 116.0 118 58 13 58 94 91 Marco Estrada R 27 4.53 5 5 25 18 101.3 105 51 11 40 75 91 Chris Narveson L 29 4.76 8 9 38 22 145.7 148 77 20 60 119 86 Mark Rogers R 25 4.82 5 6 26 24 89.7 86 48 7 70 70 85 Manny Parra L 28 4.84 8 10 38 24 152.3 158 82 19 77 143 85 David Bush R 31 4.86 8 10 29 28 157.3 167 85 24 53 103 84 Kyle Heckathorn L 23 4.93 7 9 26 22 118.7 138 65 9 52 61 83 Amaury Rivas R 25 5.47 7 11 26 24 125.0 138 76 17 68 79 75 Cody Scarpetta R 22 5.58 7 11 28 25 113.0 119 70 11 92 90 74 Sam Narron L 29 5.62 5 9 20 17 107.3 138 67 14 34 43 73 Alex Periard R 24 5.69 2 4 12 12 55.3 69 35 7 23 21 72 Chris Cody L 27 5.71 6 11 25 21 116.7 137 74 20 46 67 72 Dan Merklinger L 25 5.74 5 9 25 21 109.7 123 70 16 64 82 71 Wily Peralta R 22 5.75 4 8 28 22 123.7 140 79 15 82 78 71 Michael Bowman R 24 5.91 7 13 26 26 128.0 154 84 16 71 71 70 Josh Butler R 26 6.07 4 9 23 22 99.3 118 67 13 61 55 68 Chase Wright L 28 6.08 5 11 27 26 133.3 167 90 20 63 59 68 Chuck Lofgren L 25 6.44 4 10 27 22 116.0 133 83 23 75 71 64 Mike Jones R 28 6.59 2 5 23 13 68.3 82 50 10 51 35 62 Chris Waters L 30 6.61 5 12 27 23 115.7 137 85 23 73 60 62 Marty McLeary R 36 6.69 3 8 17 15 76.7 104 57 12 39 40 61 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Zach Braddock L 23 3.35 3 1 43 0 45.7 37 17 5 21 56 123 John Axford R 28 3.62 8 5 58 0 69.7 58 28 5 42 78 114 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Brandon Kintzler R 26 3.89 3 2 39 0 44.0 43 19 4 13 34 106 LaTroy Hawkins R 38 3.95 2 2 41 0 41.0 40 18 4 13 32 104 Mike McClendon R 26 4.00 3 2 48 0 72.0 74 32 6 25 47 103 Carlos Villanueva R 27 4.23 4 3 60 4 89.3 84 42 12 33 91 97 Todd Coffey R 30 4.26 4 3 70 0 69.7 70 33 8 24 59 96 Trevor Hoffman R 43 4.27 4 3 50 0 46.3 45 22 5 17 36 96 Jeremy Jeffress R 23 4.40 1 1 29 0 28.7 26 14 3 20 27 93 Kameron Loe R 29 4.62 7 7 47 12 115.0 123 59 13 43 71 89 Mitch Stetter L 30 4.72 3 3 59 0 47.7 46 25 7 25 47 87 David Riske R 34 4.73 1 1 26 0 26.7 28 14 3 12 19 87 Tim Dillard R 27 4.82 6 7 41 11 114.0 126 61 11 47 61 85 Justin James R 29 4.94 2 3 31 2 47.3 49 26 6 24 35 83 Jeff Bennett R 31 5.20 3 4 41 5 53.7 58 31 5 33 37 79 David Johnson R 28 5.31 2 3 48 0 61.0 66 36 9 32 46 77 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ryan Braun .284 .340 .490 2295 9200 1355 2612 549 63 408 1460 695 1601 204 124 Prince Fielder .263 .375 .486 2492 9060 1324 2383 453 22 507 1487 1447 1907 36 132 Rickie Weeks .248 .346 .416 1710 6634 1112 1644 301 58 234 724 780 1586 175 106 Corey Hart .267 .322 .463 1654 6135 861 1637 377 54 239 898 446 1220 141 107 Casey McGehee .270 .319 .421 1400 5086 566 1372 282 9 156 797 383 808 5 101 Carlos Gomez .246 .300 .359 1283 3794 525 934 165 45 58 356 245 892 202 77 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Randy Wolf 162 143 0 4.23 454 449 2754 2674 1295 355 1015 2164 99 Yovani Gallardo 161 92 0 3.48 361 358 2188 1873 845 199 939 2423 119 Doug Davis 107 119 0 4.43 351 331 1961 2060 966 210 909 1480 101 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Prince Fielder 1B 66% 24% 6% 3% 1% Jason Thompson Boog Powell Willie Aikens Ryan Braun LF 58% 27% 9% 4% 2% Matt Holliday Rick Reichardt Del Ennis Corey Hart RF 16% 29% 20% 18% 17% Gary Ward Dan Ford Marty Cordova Rickie Weeks 2B 55% 19% 13% 9% 4% Frankie Crosetti Robby Thompson Sean Berry Mat Gamel 3B 11% 24% 25% 22% 18% Roy Howell Jack Howell Brook Jacoby Casey McGehee 3B 6% 17% 23% 27% 26% Mike Cervenak Clete Boyer Jhonny Peralta Gregg Zaun C 19% 30% 23% 19% 10% Gary Carter Rick Dempsey Steve Decker Angel Salome DH 0% 2% 5% 25% 68% Kendry Morales Phil Clark Ken Harvey Chris Dickerson CF 9% 13% 26% 28% 25% Cesar Geronimo Herm Winningham Al Bumbry Kentrail Davis RF 1% 5% 10% 21% 64% Duane Walker Louie Meadows Brian Giles Alcides Escobar SS 8% 19% 32% 26% 15% Royce Clayton Joseph Thurston Erick Aybar George Kottaras C 12% 25% 23% 24% 17% Scott Hatteberg John Buck Chad Kreuter Caleb Gindl RF 2% 6% 8% 16% 67% Nick Markakis Jessie Reid Danny Putnam Joe Inglett RF 1% 5% 7% 17% 70% Dave Martinez Orlando Palmeiro Tommy McCraw Brendan Katin RF 1% 6% 10% 20% 63% Willie Darkis Kevin Witt Troy Afenir Jonathan Lucroy C 5% 15% 23% 34% 22% Jason Jaramillo Koyie Hill Kurt Suzuki Brett Lawrie 2B 9% 8% 13% 22% 47% Mariano Duncan William Suero Joseph Thurston Lorenzo Cain CF 2% 6% 20% 36% 36% Herm Winningham Xavier Paul Kevin Rhomberg Carlos Gomez CF 3% 6% 17% 31% 44% Chris Duffy Chris Roberson Jason Repko Taylor Green 3B 1% 4% 9% 19% 66% Jared Goedert Scott Cooper Greg David Eric Farris 2B 4% 5% 8% 20% 63% Miguel Cairo Danny Sandoval Eider Torres Joe Koshansky 1B 1% 2% 4% 18% 75% Scott Cepicky Pat Adams James Jurries Craig Counsell SS 5% 8% 19% 30% 37% Rick Miller Jim Davenport Tom Herr Erick Almonte 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% Dusty Wathan Gene Clines Jamie Burke Luis Cruz SS 2% 4% 12% 27% 55% Brandon Pinckney Deivi CruzChristopher Minaker Zelous Wheeler SS 3% 6% 17% 29% 45% Billy White Justin Snyder Pedro Castellano Adam Stern LF 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Cory Sullivan Joe Simpson Gene Clines Chris Nowak 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Doug Clark B.J. Barns Jason Jackson Norris Hopper CF 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% Jim Buccheri Eric Owens Gene Clines Ray Olmedo 2B 0% 1% 1% 2% 96% Jose Olmeda Jackie Gutierrez Rondin Johnson Anderson Machado SS 1% 1% 2% 7% 90% Frank Kellner Doug Baker Douglas Bernier Martin Maldonado C 1% 1% 2% 8% 88% Lance Jennings Alvin Colina Doug Lindsey Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Zach Braddock RP 46% 39% 15% Billy McCool John Rocker Randy Myers Yovani Gallardo SP 72% 25% 2% Bump Hadley Josh Beckett Mike Witt John Axford RP 36% 50% 15% Jim Kern Ryne Duren Frank Williams Brandon Kintzler RP 27% 44% 29% Chris Reitsma Cla Meredith Rusty Meacham LaTroy Hawkins RP 24% 45% 32% Ted Power Dennis Lamp Ron Reed Mike McClendon RP 19% 48% 34% Mark Williamson John Doherty Franquelis Osoria Randy Wolf SP 22% 62% 17% Bob Knepper Denny Neagle Jim Deshaies Chris Capuano SP 27% 49% 23% David Wells Jon Matlack Chris Hammond Carlos Villanueva RP 8% 50% 42% Pat Neshek Luis DeLeon Chuck Ricci Todd Coffey RP 11% 49% 39% Bruce Walton Larry Andersen Pete Ladd Trevor Hoffman RP 26% 33% 42% Doug Brocail Jose Mesa Ron Reed Jeremy Jeffress RP 16% 28% 56% Tom Thurberg Saul Rivera Jeff Innis Doug Davis SP 13% 48% 39% Bob Ojeda Vida Blue Shawn Estes Marco Estrada SP 15% 49% 36% Storm Davis Luis Aquino Dickie Noles Kameron Loe RP 4% 32% 65% Kirk Saarloos Steve Fireovid Steve Comer Mitch Stetter RP 5% 25% 70% Todd Genke Jack Taschner Greg McCarthy David Riske RP 14% 26% 61% Ricky Barlow Pat Mahomes Rodney Myers Chris Narveson SP 4% 42% 53% Mark Mimbs Will Brunson Bob Shirley Tim Dillard RP 3% 22% 75% Tommie Sisk Bob Purkey Marino Pieretti Mark Rogers SP 8% 35% 57% Dick Ruthven Colin McLaughlin Dave Morehead Manny Parra SP 4% 42% 54% Pete Falcone Al Leiter Mike Gosling David Bush SP 2% 34% 64% Brett Tomko James Baldwin Travis Driskill Kyle Heckathorn SP 4% 31% 64% Jeff Mutis Mike Miller Jake Chapman Justin James RP 3% 20% 76% Marcus Gwyn Ryan Cameron Corey Brittan Jeff Bennett RP 2% 16% 82% Jarod Juelsgaard Jerry Johnson Dwight Bernard David Johnson RP 1% 13% 86% James Warden Nate Field Travis Hughes Amaury Rivas SP 0% 13% 87% Jason Standridge Gerrit Simpson Zach Day Cody Scarpetta SP 0% 10% 89% Bill Mooneyham Kevin Coffman Kevin Ritz Sam Narron SP 1% 11% 88% John Rheinecker Jamie Walker Dave Gassner Alex Periard SP 2% 12% 85% Shane Loux Nate Cornejo Peter Bauer Chris Cody SP 0% 6% 93% Heath Phillips Omar Daal Benj Sampson Dan Merklinger SP 0% 8% 92% Camilo Vazquez Matt Perisho Matt Smith Wily Peralta SP 0% 6% 94% Jason Phillips Rich Dorman Edwin Morel Michael Bowman SP 0% 3% 96% Carlos Paredes Rick Sutcliffe Ken Ray Josh Butler SP 0% 3% 96% Carlos Paredes Chris Buglovsky Ben Fritz Chase Wright SP 0% 2% 98% Mike Prochaska David Davidson Lance Davis Chuck Lofgren SP 0% 1% 99% Tom Singer Corey Lee Chris Waters Mike Jones SP 0% 2% 98% Mike Drumright Jared Fernandez Ben Ford Chris Waters SP 0% 1% 99% Dan Smith Don Collins Tom Drees Marty McLeary SP 0% 2% 98% Bobby Witt Aaron Sele Scott Erickson Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Prince Fielder 15% 76% 68% 2% 0% 82% 60% 0% Ryan Braun 40% 21% 65% 37% 8% 60% 33% 15% Corey Hart 12% 4% 27% 11% 7% 14% 6% 4% Rickie Weeks 2% 22% 8% 0% 4% 6% 6% 3% Mat Gamel 8% 9% 7% 4% 2% 3% 4% 0% Casey McGehee 11% 3% 6% 4% 0% 3% 2% 0% Gregg Zaun 13% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Angel Salome 10% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Dickerson 2% 6% 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 3% Kentrail Davis 2% 7% 0% 2% 45% 0% 0% 0% Alcides Escobar 9% 1% 0% 1% 41% 0% 0% 28% George Kottaras 1% 6% 4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Caleb Gindl 2% 2% 1% 5% 2% 1% 0% 7% Joe Inglett 14% 7% 1% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% Brendan Katin 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% Jonathan Lucroy 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% Brett Lawrie 3% 1% 4% 10% 69% 2% 2% 26% Lorenzo Cain 3% 2% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 9% Carlos Gomez 2% 1% 1% 0% 10% 0% 0% 33% Taylor Green 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% Eric Farris 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Joe Koshansky 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 5% 1% 0% Craig Counsell 10% 8% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Erick Almonte 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luis Cruz 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% Zelous Wheeler 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% Adam Stern 5% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Chris Nowak 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Norris Hopper 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Ray Olmedo 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Anderson Machado 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Martin Maldonado 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Zach Braddock 46% 80% 96% 1% 68% Yovani Gallardo 33% 89% 96% 0% 87% John Axford 29% 81% 93% 0% 92% Brandon Kintzler 20% 63% 17% 23% 71% LaTroy Hawkins 24% 60% 21% 15% 78% Mike McClendon 14% 60% 2% 7% 84% Randy Wolf 4% 49% 7% 1% 41% Chris Capuano 7% 46% 26% 8% 49% Carlos Villanueva 6% 46% 88% 1% 36% Todd Coffey 8% 54% 29% 6% 56% Trevor Hoffman 20% 52% 21% 9% 56% Jeremy Jeffress 16% 44% 59% 0% 72% Doug Davis 2% 29% 21% 0% 60% Marco Estrada 2% 32% 5% 0% 62% Kameron Loe 3% 23% 2% 4% 55% Mitch Stetter 3% 23% 68% 0% 32% David Riske 14% 39% 11% 5% 69% Chris Narveson 0% 15% 18% 0% 27% Tim Dillard 3% 19% 3% 3% 74% Mark Rogers 1% 20% 17% 0% 88% Manny Parra 0% 13% 64% 0% 43% David Bush 0% 10% 0% 2% 11% Kyle Heckathorn 1% 12% 0% 0% 87% Justin James 2% 18% 8% 0% 39% Jeff Bennett 1% 14% 7% 0% 69% David Johnson 0% 10% 9% 0% 36% Amaury Rivas 0% 2% 0% 0% 29% Cody Scarpetta 0% 2% 17% 0% 76% Sam Narron 0% 3% 0% 9% 45% Alex Periard 0% 5% 0% 2% 49% Chris Cody 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% Dan Merklinger 0% 1% 5% 0% 22% Wily Peralta 0% 1% 0% 0% 50% Michael Bowman 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% Josh Butler 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% Chase Wright 0% 0% 0% 0% 20% Chuck Lofgren 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Mike Jones 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% Chris Waters 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% Marty McLeary 0% 1% 0% 0% 25% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 30, 2010 at 04:02 PM | 26 comment(s)
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1. monkhenry Posted: November 30, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3699241)I guess I can't get away with "Last year, but worse?"
2-1, 3.82, 35.1 IP, 33 H, 4 HR, 10 BB, 32 K, ERA+ 107.
Yeah, but I'm just looking at the results - he could be a lot better with his speed than he is, but he's still converting balls into outs at a good rate. He's not Alex Sanchez, who was a fast player with worse judgment than a little league outfielder.
Why is Carlos Gomez downgraded to VG in CF ?
All his defensive numbers were down (and generally quite severely), no matter the source data. Based just on 2010 data, I'd probably have him downgraded all the way to AVG, but there's enough uncertainty with one-year defensive data (essentially the equivalent of two months of offensive data in volatility) to not freak out too much.
*EDIT*actually, now that i think about it, i could say something else. i went to college with zack braddock. he was in the last class of draft and follows, so i played with him at a CC in new jersey.
he's added a good bit of velocity since then. he was topping out 89-90 back then (though that was as a starter), and he's been touching 96-97 so far on pitch f/x.
that is all.
Ummm ... Mr. Salome might want to find a new organization.
Gary Ward Dan Ford Marty Cordova
Great comps for each other -- I don't think I could tell the difference between Ward and Ford when they played -- but obviously horrible comps for Corey Hart who has never played for the Twins.
Great comps abound in this edition: Roy Howell & Jack Howell on the same line (brilliant!), Willie Mays Aiken, somebody named Brandon Pinckney (you made that one up didn't you?), Billy McCool, John Rocker, Bump Hadley, Ryne Duren, somebody named Franquelis Osoria.
the Braun projection is interesting. Hard guy to project as the Ks keep coming down and bringing the power down with it. ZiPS sees the power bouncing back to 2009 levels (perfectly reasonable) but sees the BA dropping -- a career 307 hitter projected to 295 (a quick Marcel puts him around 305). All told ZiPS is projecting Braun to hit exactly like 2009 except for a 25 point drop in BA. Ah well, if them's the numbers, them's the numbers.
And I was gonna snark about the pointlessness of a Capuano projection but, holy crap, he actually pitched in 2010 and pitched pretty well.
He's a minor league free agent right now, in fact. Interesting guy - a very short, kinda chunky catcher, once a solid prospect who has battled mental/commitment/family issues and had Milwaukee move him out from behind the plate last year (torpedoing his value).
Franquelis! One of a few six fingered sinker ballers that popped up a few years ago. Unfortunately, while it moved a lot, it wasn't enough to sustain success as he lacked command / other pitches / superlative velocity.
Pinckney was/is a nobody.
Doug couldn't figure out which direction he wanted to go. First he wanted to slug his way to a pennant, hence Braun at first. Didn't like those results. So went pitching/defense as best personified by getting Kendall at catcher. Kind of worked but after CC/Ben left there wasn't sufficient offense to overcome pitching going kaplooey.
Doug lost faith in his plan and then executed poorly against all plans. If you are going to have a plan then COMMIT TO THE PLAN AND GO ALL IN ON THE PLAN.
Hedging equals mediocrity. Sure extremes can result in 71 win seasons. But when you are Milwaukee you have to be willing to take more risks.
Fortune favors the brave.
G*ddamned candy%ss General Manager and his wishy-washy Charlie Brown bullsh&t makes me want to (Yosemite Sam soundtrack)
Would anyone have thought of a successful major leaguer being named Bert Blyleven? Or Chone Figgins?
B PO 1B 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG RC
L 1B 80 29 1 31 72 144 .273 .369 .511 98
L 1B 89 27 1 29 73 84 .279 .370 .502 97
L 1B 74 27 1 31 96 135 .264 .379 .505 96
L 1B 81 27 0 28 79 120 .283 .384 .513 99
L 1B 82 24 1 30 85 119 .274 .389 .502 98
L 1B 87 28 1 30 76 124 .280 .373 .511 99
Answer Key
I'll take the under on local dry goods dealer and Chamber of Commerce president "Hank Greenberg". And "Napoleon Lajoie" sounds like a brand of pipe tobacco, or possibly condoms.
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