BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 26, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

What can you say about the Red Sox? They’re a solid organization, willing to invest in the team, and despite getting swept in the first round of the playoffs, they still went 95-67 in a tough division.

The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay’s bat somehow. Bay’s unfortunately probably not going to be worth the Teixeira numbers being tossed around thanks to pretty poor defense and there’s simply no star bats coming up through the system at this moment. The team was obviously hoping for a breakthrough season in the minors for Lars Anderson, but he instead hit like a utility infielder. Reddick’s not going to be a Bay replacement and neither will Ryan Kalish (whose projection I now notice is missing and I will add), so the team’s going to have to be creative. Luckily, the team tends to be creative.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Kevin Youkilis           1b  31  .282  .384  .491 137 507  84 143 30  2 24  83  74 120  5  3   127 

Jason Bay                lf  31  .268  .368  .507 146 537 103 144 26  3 32 110  81 153 10  2   126 

David Ortiz*             dh  34  .260  .366  .507 127 473  74 123 28  1 29  86  79 107  1  1   126 

Victor Martinez#         c   31  .297  .369  .470 125 481  58 143 30  1 17  73  54  66  0  0   118 

J.D. Drew*               rf  34  .264  .381  .459 120 405  70 107 22  3 17  57  75  99  3  3   119 

Dustin Pedroia           2b  26  .306  .372  .451 148 594  97 182 40  2 14  65  59  47 16  4   114 

Casey Kotchman*          1b  27  .280  .348  .430 123 407  49 114 26  1 11  58  39  45  1  1   102 

Mike Lowell              3b  36  .282  .335  .453 114 433  51 122 24  1 16  68  36  61  2  1   104 

Chris Carter*            1b  27  .281  .335  .429 130 501  56 141 27  1 15  67  40  82  1  0    98 

Jacoby Ellsbury*         cf  26  .290  .344  .398 143 580  86 168 23  8  8  51  43  75 53 10    94 

Jeff Bailey              1b  31  .258  .345  .415 108 388  53 100 18  2 13  43  45  92  3  2    98 

Rocco Baldelli           rf  28  .261  .323  .453  66 203  30  53 10  1  9  30  15  51  3  1   100 

George Kottaras*         c   27  .239  .316  .382  86 280  33  67 17  1  7  31  32  73  0  0    82 

Jason Varitek#           c   38  .220  .323  .370 106 354  35  78 15  1 12  41  51 102  0  1    81 

Jed Lowrie#              ss  26  .247  .318  .372 100 352  41  87 22  2  6  42  38  78  2  1    80 

Jon van Every*           cf  30  .226  .301  .393  74 239  29  54  9  2  9  27  24  94  3  2    80 

Mark Wagner              c   26  .250  .308  .363  96 372  35  93 24  0  6  44  30  71  1  1    75 

Aaron Bates              1b  26  .244  .313  .344 124 479  50 117 22  1  8  48  37 122  1  0    72 

Joey Gathright*          cf  29  .272  .339  .321 120 368  58 100 11  2  1  28  32  57 21  9    75 

Angel Chavez             3b  28  .269  .301  .372 124 465  48 125 25  1  7  48  20  65  5  3    75 

Josh Reddick*            cf  23  .248  .295  .386 116 448  49 111 19  5 11  44  30 103  7  4    77 

Travis Denker            2b  24  .244  .312  .345 122 426  47 104 24  2  5  43  41  89  4  2    72 

Carlos Maldonado         c   31  .247  .311  .353  49 150  15  37  7  0  3  22  14  31  0  0    74 

Dusty Brown              c   27  .244  .310  .343  88 315  26  77 14  1  5  31  29  80  0  0    71 

Ivan Ochoa#              ss  27  .252  .320  .338  82 266  36  67 10  2  3  19  22  55 11  4    73 

Nick Green               ss  31  .241  .294  .377 106 332  35  80 16  1  9  36  21  87  2  4    74 

Brian Anderson           cf  28  .238  .301  .372 111 282  35  67 15  1  7  26  23  77  4  5    75 

Sea Bass Gonzalez        ss  33  .245  .289  .367 107 376  45  92 20  1  8  45  21  72  1  1    70 

Yamaico Navarro          ss  22  .247  .293  .352  95 381  37  94 18  2  6  38  23  85  5  5    68 

Lars Anderson*           1b  22  .227  .299  .326 126 494  47 112 23  1  8  48  51 138  1  0    64 

Gil Velazquez            ss  30  .245  .287  .344  97 302  35  74 14  2  4  27  17  59  3  2    65 

Chris Woodward           ss  34  .243  .301  .321  87 243  26  59 11  1  2  22  19  49  2  1    63 

Luis Exposito            c   23  .239  .279  .351 105 419  34 100 21  1  8  44  21 103  2  2    64 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Youkilis                Av/62           Fr/87                                   

Bay                                                     Pr/92                   

Ortiz*                  Pr/130                                                  

Martinez#          Fr   Fr/100                                                  

Drew*                                                                   Vg/101  

Pedroia                         Vg/78                                           

Kotchman*               Av/59                                                   

Lowell                                  Av/91                                   

Carter*                 Pr/146                          Pr/108          Pr/137  

Ellsbury*                                               Vg/44   Av/94   Vg/44   

Bailey                  Av/130                          Fr/166          Fr/166  

Baldelli                                                Av/105  Av/118  Av/105  

Kottaras*          Fr                                                           

Varitek#           Pr                                                           

Lowrie#                         Av/108  Av/108  Av/108                          

van Every*                                              Av/75   Fr/75   Av/75   

Wagner             Vg                                                           

Bates                   Av/129                          Av/206                  

Gathright*                                              Vg/94   Vg/89           

Chavez                          Fr/120  Av/93   Fr/101                          

Reddick*                                                Av/121  Fr/173  Av/143  

Denker                          Av/137  Av/121                                  

Maldonado          Av                                                           

Brown              Fr                                                           

Ochoa#                          Vg/167          Fr/121                          

Green                           Fr/116  Fr/120  Fr/130  Fr/120  Pr/120  Fr/120  

Anderson                                                Vg/87   Av/87   Vg/87   

Gonzalez                                        Av/100                          

Navarro                         Av/140  Av/140  Av/140                          

Anderson*               Fr/132                                                  

Velazquez               Vg/114  Fr/114  Vg/114  Fr/94   Av/114                  

Woodward                Vg/136  Av/136  Vg/136  Av/91   Av/100          Av/100  

Exposito           Fr                                                           

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

YoukilisKevin      1B   26%   41%   21%   10%    2%       HodgesGil       LeeDerrek       SalmonTim

BayJason           LF   38%   31%   17%   10%    3%      AllisonBob      KinerRalph      BondsBobby

OrtizDavid         DH   24%   37%   21%   13%    4%   NicholsonBill     EvansDwight      OglivieBen

PedroiaDustin      2B   60%   20%   12%    6%    1%         HuntRon        CashDave     HermanBilly

MartinezVictor      C   57%   31%    9%    4%    0%      BatteyEarl       DavisSpud     LollarSherm

DrewJ.D.           RF   22%   35%   20%   15%    8%     MurcerBobby      GilesBrian YastrzemskiCarl

EllsburyJacoby     CF   26%   31%   30%   11%    2%         LawRudy     FinleySteve    RiversMickey

LowellMike         3B    7%   23%   31%   27%   12%  RobinsonBrooks        BooneRay        BoyerKen

KotchmanCasey      1B    2%    8%   14%   43%   34%    GrimmCharlie       LeachRick     BurnhamGary

CarterChris        RF    3%    9%   14%   28%   45% CromartieWarren         HallMel      MayDerrick

BaldelliRocco      RF    4%   10%   13%   28%   44%   MontgomeryRay       GrieveTom       BowensSam

BaileyJeff         1B    2%    7%   12%   36%   42%       TolmanTim        MorganEd      ConineJeff

KottarasGeorge      C    1%    7%   20%   41%   31%    LaforestPete  HattebergScott  SchneiderBrian

LowrieJed          SS    1%    6%   22%   37%   33%       RiggsEric   StillwellKurt  NicholsonKevin

GathrightJoey      CF    0%    0%    3%   20%   77%      TynerJason    ThompsonMilt     ManningRick

ChavezAngel        3B    0%    1%    3%    8%   89%        DuganJoe      KaskoEddie    RodriguezVic

van EveryJonathan  CF    1%    2%    7%   20%   69%      MapesCliff  RosenthalLarry   RobersonKevin

VaritekJason        C    2%    9%   17%   33%   39%      WhittERnie  TebbettsBirdie        ReedJeff

ReddickJosh        CF    0%    0%    4%   19%   76%     BostonDaryl    LongTerrence        PieFelix

OchoaIvan          SS    1%    2%   11%   35%   51%  CabreraJolbert   WilsonBrandon    PatekFreddie

WagnerMark          C    0%    2%    7%   32%   59%       BatheBill MaldonadoCarlos    FordyceBrook

MaldonadoCarlos     C    0%    1%    4%   26%   68%        SwiftBob      TillmanBob    WebsterLenny

BatesAaron         1B    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%  CarpenterGlenn      DavisTommy       HarveyKen

DenkerTravis       2B    0%    0%    1%    9%   90% GarrisonWebster         FordHod        WotusRon

BrownDusty          C    0%    1%    3%   23%   73%     ParrishDave      EspinoJuan    LiddleSteven

GonzalezAlex       SS    1%    3%    9%   22%   65%      CastroJuan       SuderPete     MartinBilly

GreenNick          SS    0%    2%    9%   23%   66%       GagneGreg      AguayoLuis     AlfaroJesus

AndersonBrian      CF    0%    0%    1%    7%   92%     BufordDamon  SandersAnthony    HollinsDamon

NavarroYamaico     SS    0%    0%    2%   12%   86%       MorseMike    SalazarOscar    MontanezLuis

VelazquezGil       SS    0%    1%    2%    9%   87%    GarciaCarlos     HalterShane     Lo DucaPaul

WoodwardChris      SS    0%    0%    3%   13%   84%    ClaytonRoyce     GerberWally    BelangerMark

AndersonLars       1B    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%     DuncanChris       LeachNick      NelsonBrad

ExpositoLuis        C    0%    0%    0%    6%   93%        DiazMike    CotaHumbertoRodriguezGuillermo

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

YoukilisKevin         25%     62%     42%     22%      3%      0%     23%      0%

BayJason              16%     38%     42%     24%      3%      0%     51%      0%

OrtizDavid             8%     42%     52%     21%      2%      0%     39%      0%

PedroiaDustin         59%     46%     15%      7%     29%      0%      2%      1%

MartinezVictor        41%     43%     21%     10%      3%      0%      6%      0%

DrewJ.D.              14%     59%     21%     13%      0%      6%      2%      0%

EllsburyJacoby        33%      8%      0%      0%      0%     21%      0%     98%

LowellMike            23%      8%     12%      1%      0%      0%      2%      0%

KotchmanCasey         21%     16%      8%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CarterChris           25%      5%      6%      1%      1%      0%      1%      0%

BaldelliRocco         12%      6%     20%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BaileyJeff            10%     15%      5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

KottarasGeorge         2%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LowrieJed              3%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GathrightJoey         14%      8%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      8%

ChavezAngel           10%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

van EveryJonathan      0%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VaritekJason           0%      3%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ReddickJosh            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      4%      0%      0%

OchoaIvan              6%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WagnerMark             3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MaldonadoCarlos        8%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BatesAaron             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DenkerTravis           1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BrownDusty             2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GonzalezAlex           4%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GreenNick              2%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AndersonBrian          1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NavarroYamaico         1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VelazquezGil           4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WoodwardChris          5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AndersonLars           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ExpositoLuis           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Josh Beckett              30   3.96  15   9  32  32   206.2  202   91  22   44  194  119 

Jon Lester*               26   4.00  13   8  33  33   200.1  200   89  19   64  175  118 

Clay Buchholz             25   4.46  11   8  31  30   161.1  165   80  16   60  123  106 

Daisuke Matsuzaka         29   4.62  10   8  25  25   136.1  139   70  16   61  121  103 

Tim Wakefield             43   4.75  11  10  26  26   153.1  161   81  19   52   87  100 

Michael Bowden            23   5.11   6   7  30  26   135.2  154   77  16   50   77   92 

Paul Byrd                 39   5.25   6   7  18  18   108.0  136   63  17   24   48   90 

Junichi Tazawa            24   5.51  10  12  27  25   130.2  164   80  17   41   79   85 

Devern Hansack            32   5.56   5   6  19  16    90.2  103   56  14   31   53   85 

Adam Mills                25   5.63   8  11  27  27   139.0  183   87  17   36   58   84 

Felix Doubront*           22   5.86   7  11  27  27   118.1  147   77  16   55   70   81 

Charlie Zink              30   6.34   7  13  27  25   137.2  169   97  17   79   47   74 

Kris Johnson*             25   6.44   7  12  27  27   123.0  163   88  15   62   58   74 

Enrique Gonzalez          27   6.48   6  11  31  21   126.1  169   91  20   62   65   73 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Jon Papelbon              29   2.85   4   1  66   0    66.1   55   21   6   18   78  166 

Takashi Saito             40   3.40   4   2  52   0    50.1   46   19   5   19   48  139 

Billy Wagner*             38   3.57   1   1  37   0    35.1   31   14   4   12   38  136 

Hideki Okajima*           34   3.58   4   2  65   0    60.1   56   24   7   20   54  130 

Ramon Ramirez             28   4.11   5   3  68   0    65.2   63   30   6   29   54  115 

Manny Delcarmen           28   4.13   3   2  70   0    69.2   67   32   6   31   59  113 

Daniel Bard               25   4.24   3   2  56   0    68.0   59   32   7   31   77  111 

Javier Lopez*             32   4.85   2   2  62   0    52.0   59   28   5   23   28   96 

Fernando Cabrera          28   5.07   2   2  42   0    49.2   53   28   6   29   44   92 

Dustin Richardson*        26   5.09   2   2  47   0    69.0   69   39   6   48   63   93 

Randor Bierd              26   5.12   2   2  34   5    58.0   66   33   7   24   40   92 

Hunter Jones*             26   5.24   2   3  31   0    46.1   53   27   5   20   29   91 

Marcus McBeth             29   5.47   2   3  44   0    51.0   56   31   7   25   36   86 

Billy Traber*             30   5.71   4   6  46   5    75.2   97   48  10   26   35   82 

Richard Lentz             25   6.17   2   3  40   0    54.0   56   37   6   50   48   77 

Jose Vaquedano            28   6.34   2   4  42   0    59.2   73   42   8   38   27   74 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

PapelbonJonathan   RP       92%    7%    0%         GagneEric     FingersRollie          HenkeTom

SaitoTakashi       RP       73%   23%    3%      PaigeSatchel     AndersenLarry       WilhelmHoyt

WagnerBilly        RP       59%   34%    6%     RemlingerMike         McGrawTug        CookDennis

OkajimaHideki      RP       58%   37%    5%       LavelleGary        EmbreeAlan      RhodesArthur

BeckettJosh        SP       74%   25%    1%     SchillingCurt     VazquezJavier       HarangAaron

LesterJon          SP       72%   28%    1%      SwindellGreg      SabathiaC.C.        BurnsBritt

RamirezRamon       RP       35%   54%   11%         SelmaDick    CarrascoHector     WilliamsFrank

DelcarmenManny     RP       33%   53%   14%         SelmaDick    CarrascoHector     WilliamsFrank

BardDaniel         RP       30%   55%   15%         SotoMario    BedrosianSteve       JacksonMike

BuchholzClay       SP       44%   51%    5%     ArmstrongJack         MathisRon          WittMike

MatsuzakaDaisuke   SP       37%   54%   10%        DeLeonJose      SchmidtJason       GardnerMark

WakefieldTim       SP       33%   50%   17%     HershiserOrel        MorganMike         ForschKen

LopezJavier        RP       14%   42%   44%     MirabellaPaul      EarleyArnold  SchoeneweisScott

RichardsonDustin   RP        6%   44%   50%      FuentesBrian    AlmanzaArmando       ReyesDennys

BowdenMichael      SP       11%   59%   30%       NagyCharles        JonesJimmy     BurdickStacey

BierdRandor        RP        7%   43%   50%     FrohwirthTodd  PichardoHipolito        GardnerLee

CabreraFernando    RP        6%   40%   54%      VasquezJorge     WilliamsFrank          BestKarl

JonesHunter        RP        7%   36%   57%      HorsmanVince       MoloneyBill       McDillAllen

ByrdPaul           SP       17%   43%   40%         KremerRay    AlexanderDoyle        BunningJim

McBethMarcus       RP        3%   28%   69%         DorseyJim      HarvilleChad        BatemanJoe

TazawaJunichi      SP        3%   44%   52%     GermanoJustin   RamirezElizardo   SonnanstineAndy

HansackDevern      SP        5%   37%   58%      BaldwinJames    RodriguezNerio        JonesBobby

MillsAdam          SP        2%   36%   62%        ColemanJoe          WiseRick     TelghederDave

TraberBilly        RP        3%   24%   73%    OvermireStubby          KeyChris       HortonRicky

DoubrontFelix      SP        1%   24%   75%      BresterJason      BorrellDanny       GoslingMike

LentzRichard       RP        1%   10%   89%       SadlerBilly    PimentelRafael        KayeJustin

ZinkCharlie        SP        0%    9%   91%        FowlerDick    JeffersonJesse          BlackDon

VaquedanoJose      RP        1%    8%   91%       ArnoldJamie      McLearyMarty      BumsteadMike

JohnsonKristofer   SP        0%    7%   93%        WhislerWes       RichardJ.R.       ChapmanJake

GonzalezEnrique    SP        0%    6%   94%    CallawayMickey    FarnsworthJeff     JacksonSteven

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

PapelbonJonathan        92%      100%       98%      30%       75%

SaitoTakashi            66%       95%       63%       6%       78%

WagnerBilly             59%       90%       86%      16%       70%

OkajimaHideki           51%       91%       55%       8%       65%

BeckettJosh             31%       93%       66%      62%       65%

LesterJon               27%       93%       42%       5%       73%

RamirezRamon            29%       81%       23%       1%       70%

DelcarmenManny          27%       78%       34%       0%       84%

BardDaniel              24%       80%       95%       0%       69%

BuchholzClay             9%       73%        8%       0%       71%

WakefieldTim             9%       59%        0%      23%       47%  

MatsuzakaDaisuke         8%       65%       45%       0%       47%

LopezJavier             14%       49%        1%       2%       79%

RichardsonDustin         4%       37%       54%       0%       84%

BowdenMichael            1%       29%        0%       1%       48%

BierdRandor              5%       36%        3%       1%       53%

CabreraFernando          6%       38%       43%       0%       61%

JonesHunter              5%       36%        1%       1%       61%

ByrdPaul                 4%       31%        0%      58%       27%

McBethMarcus             2%       19%        5%       0%       39%

TazawaJunichi            0%       15%        0%       5%       36%

HansackDevern            0%       13%        0%       3%       18%

MillsAdam                0%        9%        0%      25%       38%

TraberBilly              2%       19%        0%       7%       38%

DoubrontFelix            0%        6%        0%       0%       31%

LentzRichard             0%        8%       43%       0%       57%

ZinkCharlie              0%        2%        0%       0%       44%

VaquedanoJose            0%        5%        0%       0%       41%

JohnsonKristofer         0%        1%        0%       0%       44%

GonzalezEnrique          0%        1%        0%       0%       13%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

VaritekJason     .252 .339 .424 1709  5673    699   1427  327  17  206  809   708   1375  25  22   95

KotchmanCasey    .270 .338 .409 1235  4049    471   1093  243  11   99  561   382    433  17  14   95

LowellMike       .278 .339 .462 2086  7714    985   2143  495  13  300 1250   706   1075  39  21  108

PedroiaDustin    .292 .359 .426 2347  9380   1502   2742  586  25  207  936   932    777 225  63  104

YoukilisKevin    .277 .377 .466 1675  6096    989   1688  374  24  244  944   867   1411  50  38  118

BayJason         .263 .361 .486 1889  6886   1211   1810  354  38  369 1284  1011   1971 128  27  119

DrewJ.D.         .272 .383 .479 1988  6618   1210   1797  353  61  299  977  1163   1516  98  54  122

EllsburyJacoby   .284 .339 .388 1716  6888   1027   1957  268  80   95  587   526    905 541 117   89

OrtizDavid       .269 .368 .521 2177  7881   1290   2119  529  20  472 1515  1239   1728  15  13  127

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

BeckettJosh       220   162     0  4.13    496    495 3133   3040    363    829   2929    112

ByrdPaul          123   111     0  4.52    385    296 1929   2154    283    454   1028    102

LesterJon         201   133     0  4.15    526    521 3136   3137    344   1096   2822    114

MatsuzakaDaisuk   109    96     0  4.64    272    272 1508   1517    190    710   1372    102

PapelbonJonatha    48    25   490  2.83    951      3  975    813     92    275   1130    155

WagnerBilly        45    41   443  2.57    917      0  960    683     91    324   1230    168

WakefieldTim      200   171    22  4.35    587    446 3079   2990    391   1172   2064    108 

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2009 at 09:34 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. CraigK Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:15 PM (#3366909)

In other words, Dustin Pedroia's going to the Hall on the first ballot.

2. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:19 PM (#3366917)

i've got a question for people who've tracked junichi tazawa this season. he'll be a free agent in my sim league this offseason, and i'm considering putting out a 5 year, $6 million offer. basically, all i want to know is if he has enough upside to be worth anywhere near that amount of coin.

my salary cap will be in the area of 130 million, so the cash isn't gonna be a problem. his talent would be the only issue.

3. Russlan is not Russian Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:43 PM (#3366936)

Lester's peripherals don't seem to match his ERA.

4. danielj

Posted: October 26, 2009 at 10:59 PM (#3366949)

So, Bay is basically the dangerous FA that will get too many $ and too many years this winter? IOW, a Met.

5. Travolta19 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:01 PM (#3366951)

Re: Tazawa

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.

6. Tuque

Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3366959)

I know of one free agent left fielder who would be a great fit for the Red Sox...

...

...

......Barry Bonds.

7. Mister High Standards Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:17 PM (#3366960)

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

8. John DiFool2 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:22 PM (#3366964)

Jacoby Ellsbury* 26 .290 .344 .398

His career line is better than this across the board, yet the system expects him to regress, a year or so before his peak?

The top OPS+ numbers should be troubling-not that the Sox can't win with 6 guys being above 110 (they can), but you have to expect some dropoffs here and there (Law of Competitive Balance and all that), such that it is a bit more comforting to have a truly elite hitter (still in his prime) in there who can carry the team. 4 of them were above 130 last year, but with the top ones in the projection maxed out around 127, they'll need someone else to pick up the slack, but I'm not sure who (VMart as the mostly full-time C will help of course).

Lester has had a ~3.30 ERA the past two years, and the K rate in '09 was no fluke, so yeah.

9. Nasty Nate Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3366965)

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

on ERA or ERA+ ?

10. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366966)

I would say that if you could get him at that, it would be a steal. I don't see any reason he can't be at least a solid #4SP, and those fetch $4-5M/year in my league. That said, if your league is anything like mine (mirrors MLB, 30 teams, etc), there's not a chance you get him at that price.

i'm anticipating that noone (and that very well could be including myself considering the money i'll be locking myself into for a SS) will have any appreciable amount of cash. also, with guys like johan santana, josh beckett, aj burnett, roy halladay, jake peavy, derrick lowe, javier vazquez, john lackey, cliff lee, and carlos zambrano, i'm anticipating that a quick bid like that on day 1 will close the competition.

i've got a ton of cheap top end pitching right now, and i'm looking to put a hurt on everyone in my league by running out a lineup that's indestructable, with a rotation featuring edwin jackson, wandy rodriguez, shaun marcum, justin masterson, clayton richard, plus a guy like tazawa, and some veteran placeholders, most likely in the form of two of jarrod washburn, tim hudson, ryan dempster, nick blackburn, or one other name that i'm keeping to myself.

11. Rays&Sox; Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366967)

3.57, 136 ERA+... I guess Wagner never really did recover from TJ. I thought he'd be somewhere closer to last year's projection.

12. John DiFool2 Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:27 PM (#3366968)

And Jed: over on the rate stats, but he has a good chance to be under on the playing time (and if so the rate stats might drop too if he plays hurt).

Papi's career projections-he might be an interesting HoF candidate if he gets to those numbers, but I don't think he'll make it.

13. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:39 PM (#3366974)

fyi, van every (those range ratings are way too low, but i say that every year) is a pirate. carter is a met.

14. Walt Davis Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:40 PM (#3366977)

The offense could use some work. Certainly Holliday fits better here than Bay ... but then he fits better everywhere than Bay. I suppose if there's a good corner OF coming on the market for 2011, you could live with a year of Bay in LF then move him to DH when Ortiz leaves.

Obviously SS is still an issue. Another big issue is whether to try to extend Martinez now (another possibility for the post-Ortiz DH) or wait. And it never ceases to amaze just how quickly starting pitching depth can disappear. It's still OK -- solid top 5, Bowden is a good #6, I suppose Bard could be moved into the rotation if need be. Will we see a repeat of them signing every injured starter on the market?

15. Guapo Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:44 PM (#3366980)

Interesting career projection for Ellsbury. I don't see him lasting that many games with a career 89 OPS+.

Edit: Is Ellsbury the new Dave Collins?

16. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3366984)

The Sox will need to replace Jason Bay's bat somehow.

And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"

17. DKDC Posted: October 26, 2009 at 11:59 PM (#3366986)

Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen have eerily similar projections. Right down to the same three comps.

18. Mike Emeigh

Posted: October 27, 2009 at 12:41 AM (#3367010)

Interesting set of comps for Bay. Allison and Bonds both had three good years left in them, then crashed out of the majors quickly. Kiner's back went out on him after his age-31 season, curtailing his career. Says to me that I sure wouldn't offer Bay any more than three years.

-- MWE

19. Shilzzz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:01 AM (#3367020)

ok, so a friend and i are GMs of a team that plays on a computer data based fantasy league with 12 teams which draft players merely from about 9 mlb teams, the red sox being one of them. the defense ratings look exactly the same as the ones that are emailed to the GMs at the beginning of each season. The data resembles the stuff being shown in these ZiPS projections makes me wonder a couple things i hope someone can answer. 1) Is there a program that uses this sort of projecting for private, offline fantasy leagues, and 2) are these projections based off each players career, park adjusted, and all that? Thanks

20. Shilzzz Posted: October 27, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3367057)

wow. awesome info. thanks!

21. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 27, 2009 at 02:32 AM (#3367084)

Take the under on Lester. Bank on it.

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.

22. Mister High Standards Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:01 AM (#3367115)

I was going to say the exact opposite. I'm looking for Lester, at least ERA+-wise, to compete with Hernandez, Greinke and Halladay at the top of the league.

I agreed. His ERA is going to be well below 4.

23. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:05 AM (#3367116)

Oh, I see.

24. BarrettsHiddenBall Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:17 AM (#3367145)

And they still need to have a better plan to address the gaping chest wound at SS than "Lowrie will be OK this season, we're sure of it!"

Can you live with a platoon? They've already added "Wow, Iglesias's glove is excellent; maybe he could be ready next year."

25. Petunia Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3367151)

I'd probably do one for OOTP, too, but I don't own the game and I don't have any connections with the developers.

Markus Heinsohn is incredibly approachable.

26. philly Posted: October 27, 2009 at 03:23 PM (#3367388)

Chris Carter was traded to the Mets as a PTBNL in the Wagner deal.

27. trtaylor6886 Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:13 PM (#3367488)

I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.

28. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 27, 2009 at 04:36 PM (#3367529)

I am surprised Ellsbury rate as only average in center. I see his defensive numbers are nothing special on fangraphs too. In the limited time I have seen him play, he has looked like a gold glover.

He makes great plays, but watch the routes he takes sometimes. I don't think he's as bad as his defensive numbers this year, but he's also not a gold glover in CF, at least not right now. "Average" seems like the right ballpark for him.

29. Eric M. Van Posted: October 27, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3367577)

Ellsbury was dropped in the order last May 31 in order to work on using the count to his advantage -- at the time he had a higher career SA after falling behind 0-1 than he did after getting ahead 1-0, whereas the average player gains about .120, and he said the same deficit comparing 2-0 to 0-2 (gaining .107 vs. the average of c. 215). He wasn't restored to leadoff until the team felt he had made significant progress in improving his approach. He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

Re his D, I believe the numbers are accurate. He's great going to his left and right, but has trouble on balls over his head and as a result played too deeply, which made his already bad-looking performance on balls hit in front of him (same problem getting a good read and jump as balls hit over his head) just brutal statistically. He also had serious problems early in the year on balls hit near the wall, but made a lot of progress on that during the season. He just needs more reps reading the ball off MLB bats, and there's every reason to think he can be a league average defender this year and a plus one, commensurate with his obvious tools, after that.

30. John M. Perkins Posted: October 27, 2009 at 06:43 PM (#3367695)

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

31. villageidiom Posted: October 27, 2009 at 08:00 PM (#3367778)

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

Unfortunately, Papelbon's comp is Eric Gagne.

32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 27, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3367800)

He was hitting .299 / .332 / .370 when demoted and hit .303 / .366 / .438 afterward, and in this case the near doubling of IsoD was the result of hitting the ball harder and forcing pitchers to work him much more carefully, especially once they fell behind him (he had been last on the team in % of pitches outside the strike zone). That improvement was absolutely real and anything much less than an 800 OPS will be a disappointment. If he continues to work on looking for his pitch and driving the ball, he could be even better. I know that Ron Shandler believes that second half / first half splits have some predictive value -- has ZiPS looked into that?

I believe the standard stats line is that these splits have no added predictive value vs. the full year statistics.

33. LB813 Posted: November 10, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3384139)

I would love to see a projection for Hermida now that he is a RedSox.

34. LB813 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 01:54 PM (#3393373)

The redsox also claimed Robert Manual from the Mariners. He had a pretty nice year last year, would like to see his projection too. He was actually a pretty good simmer in a league I am in last year, and wonder if I should try to trade for him.

35. jar75 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3400765)

Hey Dan, I'm just wondering if there's been any updates regarding Kalish's missing projection. Thanks.

36. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 08, 2009 at 06:59 PM (#3406867)

A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.

What do you think?

37. LB813 Posted: December 29, 2009 at 01:21 PM (#3423732)

Hey Dan.
Any thoughts on Ryan Kalish, Robert Manual and Jeremy Hermida??

38. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 29, 2009 at 01:34 PM (#3423737)

A while back, I proposed an Ellsbury-Adam Dunn swap on BP. Joe Sheehan responded that if the Nats offered that deal, Theo would laugh them out of the room. But I still hold that a) Dunn has more value to the Sox as a DH option than Ellsbury does as a CF, and b) a good defensive OF would be a better option to put in CF than Ellsbury.

One year of Adam Dunn at $10M for four years of Jacoby Ellsbury way under market value?

39. Krusty Posted: December 29, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3423750)

Greg Gagne as comparable to two Red Sox. Jon Papelbon on the mound and Nick Green at the plate. I'd like to hear Green's agent asking for Gagne money.

Greg Gagne had nothing on Brian Christopher, Erik Watts, or that really skinny Von Erich.

Getting back on point, the Red Sox really do seem to prefer high contact hitters. Perhaps in absence of a bopper, they're going to try to get 'em on, get 'em over, and get 'em in?

40. BobbyS Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:33 PM (#3448881)

Didn't notice that - I better check that again just to be safe.

Was Ramon Ramirez checked again? Just looking at his Baseball Reference page...he has a ERA+ of 138, including 165 the last two seasons, with just a glitch in 2007(17 ip for the Rockies). 115 doesn't seem to do him much justice here. Is that a mistake, or are there reasons?

41. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 28, 2010 at 07:36 PM (#3448885)

42. BobbyS Posted: February 02, 2010 at 05:48 AM (#3452369)

His peripherals last year didn't support that ERA - I'm guessing that's the issue.

I get that, and I wasn't expecting to see another 165 up there, but just didn't think it'd be 50 points lower. But even looking at his career work, he has a 3.66 FIP and 138 ERA+ That's a quick decline for a 28/29 year old who's peripherals were still average or better last year..

43. LB813 Posted: February 07, 2010 at 09:25 PM (#3455768)

Still would love to see a projecton for Jeremy Hermida. Also, any chance that Casey Kelly gets a projection in the final disk? Same with Jose Iglesias. I definitely thought he would be getting a projection at least.

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Monday, October 26, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

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