Offensive Projections
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Aramis Ramirez 3b 32 .295 .368 .519 112 420 64 124 27 2 21 101 43 59 1 1 126
Derrek Lee 1b 34 .293 .372 .502 125 482 75 141 31 2 22 97 60 96 3 1 123
Marlon Byrd cf 32 .291 .345 .463 133 488 65 142 32 5 14 72 34 86 7 4 106
Micah Hoffpauir* 1b 30 .277 .330 .490 98 296 42 82 19 1 14 66 23 53 1 0 108
Alfonso Soriano lf 34 .268 .327 .494 115 474 72 127 28 2 25 73 39 108 8 2 108
Geovany Soto c 27 .262 .341 .459 127 431 50 113 27 2 18 82 53 97 0 0 104
Kosuke Fukudome* rf 33 .259 .362 .412 131 451 68 117 28 4 11 64 73 93 5 5 100
Reed Johnson cf 33 .275 .344 .407 89 273 36 75 16 1 6 35 19 50 3 2 93
Mike Fontenot* 2b 30 .263 .330 .421 135 373 49 98 23 3 10 55 37 73 3 1 92
Jeff Baker 2b 29 .264 .325 .427 107 295 38 78 17 2 9 45 26 77 1 0 92
Ryan Theriot ss 30 .287 .351 .373 143 550 78 158 24 4 5 54 52 68 18 6 88
Bobby Scales# 3b 32 .263 .340 .398 125 415 54 109 21 4 9 53 45 90 5 4 90
Sam Fuld* cf 28 .276 .346 .382 131 442 68 122 23 6 4 45 45 53 12 5 88
Matt Craig# 1b 29 .257 .326 .391 111 373 42 96 21 1 9 51 36 83 1 0 85
John-Ford Griffin* lf 30 .247 .311 .416 111 385 40 95 23 3 12 55 35 95 2 1 86
Bryan LaHair* 1b 27 .254 .311 .411 129 496 65 126 28 1 16 80 40 129 0 2 85
Josh Vitters 3b 20 .266 .298 .409 107 418 47 111 23 2 11 57 15 76 3 1 80
Steve Clevenger* c 24 .276 .326 .359 102 351 33 97 19 2 2 45 26 44 3 2 77
Andres Blanco# ss 26 .275 .321 .375 103 320 34 88 16 2 4 38 19 38 4 2 79
Brad Snyder* rf 28 .240 .293 .413 98 346 37 83 18 3 12 46 25 106 5 1 80
Blake Lalli 1b 27 .268 .310 .371 100 340 31 91 20 0 5 46 20 58 0 1 75
Luis Rivas 2b 30 .258 .311 .369 80 260 30 67 13 2 4 28 19 35 3 2 75
Matt Spencer* lf 24 .249 .294 .380 132 523 55 130 27 3 12 68 31 126 4 2 73
Starlin Castro ss 20 .268 .309 .368 136 511 52 137 26 5 5 54 29 69 16 9 74
Tyler Colvin* rf 24 .249 .287 .394 134 515 60 128 25 7 12 70 27 119 5 2 74
Koyie Hill# c 31 .238 .299 .365 89 277 30 66 15 1 6 39 24 66 1 0 71
Darwin Barney ss 24 .263 .306 .341 119 419 44 110 20 2 3 45 27 65 5 2 67
Matt Camp* cf 26 .264 .309 .323 127 470 60 124 18 2 2 48 29 63 18 6 64
James Adduci* cf 25 .252 .311 .329 135 511 60 129 21 3 4 51 43 114 17 8 66
Welington Castillo c 23 .238 .281 .355 101 349 29 83 18 1 7 41 17 91 1 0 63
Chris Robinson c 26 .256 .289 .333 87 297 26 76 15 1 2 36 14 62 3 1 60
Tony Thomas 2b 23 .226 .290 .335 129 483 56 109 25 2 8 45 38 139 9 9 61
Defensive Projections
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Ramirez Fr/99
Lee Av/98
Byrd Av/62 Fr/123 Av/108
Hoffpauir* Fr/107 Fr/107 Fr/107
Soriano Av/145 Fr/145
Soto Av Av/84
Fukudome* Pr/97 Vg/97
Johnson Av/83 Av/83 Av/83
Fontenot* Av/93 Av/91 Fr/113
Baker Av/102 Av/102 Av/102 Fr/102 Fr/102
Scales# Av/90 Pr/148 Fr/138 Pr/178 Av/113 Av/113
Fuld* Vg/62 Av/62 Vg/62
Craig# Fr/113 Pr/123
Griffin* Fr/123 Fr/128
LaHair* Av/89 Av/44 Av/44
Vitters Fr/147
Clevenger* Fr Fr/88
Blanco# Av/67 Av/140
Snyder* Av/109 Pr/119 Av/109
Lalli Vg Fr/148
Oforthreevas Pr/111 Pr/158
Spencer* Av/151 Av/151 Av/151
Castro Av/163
Colvin* Av/79 Av/79 Av/79
Hill# Av Av/101
Barney Av/127
Camp* Fr/148 Fr/148 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Adduci* Vg/130 Av/130 Vg/130
Castillo Av
Robinson Fr
Thomas Av/127
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
RamirezAramis 3B 46% 37% 13% 4% 1% MoneyDon BellBuddy RobinsonBrooks
LeeDerrek 1B 21% 39% 22% 15% 4% LongDale HodgesGil ThomasFrank
HoffpauirMicah 1B 5% 18% 22% 35% 19% KryhoskiDick PutnamPat ThomasFrank
SorianoAlfonso LF 12% 23% 21% 23% 20% ChapmanSam CarterJoe SoltersMoose
SotoGeovany C 25% 38% 21% 12% 3% McGinnisRuss PappasErik PosadaJorge
FukudomeKosuke RF 3% 10% 13% 23% 51% TuckerMichael CruzJose CapraNick
JohnsonReed CF 6% 11% 27% 34% 22% BeniquezJuan HockettOris HoagMyril
BakerJeff 2B 13% 15% 20% 27% 25% VelardeRandy GreenNick ScarsoneSteve
FontenotMike 2B 9% 12% 18% 29% 32% ScutaroMarco EasleyDamion RiggsAdam
TheriotRyan SS 9% 18% 33% 26% 13% EcksteinDavid RojekStanMaranvilleRabbit
FuldSam CF 2% 8% 23% 36% 31% MilnerEddie DamonJohnny PrietoChris
ScalesBobby 3B 2% 6% 13% 25% 54% ShanksHowie RandleLen HockingDennis
TaguchiSo RF 0% 1% 6% 17% 76% CooneyJohnny WanerPaul RiceSam
CraigMatt 1B 0% 1% 3% 17% 78% CostoTim PritchettChris BarkerKevin
GriffinJohn-Ford LF 0% 2% 5% 15% 77% GuielJeff HowittDann StahlLarry
VittersJosh 3B 0% 2% 7% 20% 71% RiveraGerman GruberKelly InfanteKennedy
BlancoAndres SS 1% 6% 22% 37% 34% WilsonEnrique IzturisCesarWhiteheadBurgess
SnyderBrad RF 0% 2% 4% 12% 81% FrobelDoug AldridgeCory WadeScott
ClevengerSteven C 0% 4% 12% 36% 48% WilsonCraig PenaBrayan TorrealbaYorvit
LalliBlake 1B 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% McGowanSean EylwardMike CastellanoJohn
CastroStarlin SS 0% 2% 11% 29% 58% AriasJoaquin InfanteOmar AybarErick
RivasLuis 2B 2% 3% 6% 16% 73% CairoMiguel CritzHughie SimonsMitch
ColvinTyler RF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% SkurlaJohn RigsbyRandy GordonBrian
SpencerMatthew LF 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% HernandezAlex BrownDee CandelariaBen
HillKoyie C 0% 3% 7% 24% 66% KreuterChad MoellerChad DavisDoug
BarneyDarwin SS 0% 1% 5% 18% 75% ChavezPedro FoliTim CorreiaRod
CampMatt CF 0% 0% 1% 7% 91% OwensJerry RuanWilkin TynerJason
AdduciJames CF 0% 0% 2% 9% 90% RobertsDave GathrightJoey GoodwinTom
CastilloWelington C 0% 0% 2% 12% 86% LuzinskiRyan DiazCarlos KnorrRandy
RobinsonChris C 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% DempseyPat KearneyBob EusebioTony
BynumFreddie SS 0% 0% 1% 5% 94% NocePaul KutcherRandy MartinezPablo
ThomasTony 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% GraffaninoTony PerezAntonio MorrisseyAdam
Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB
RamirezAramis 45% 42% 62% 20% 1% 0% 10% 0%
LeeDerrek 39% 45% 50% 17% 4% 0% 13% 0%
HoffpauirMicah 24% 8% 42% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0%
SorianoAlfonso 13% 5% 42% 6% 1% 0% 26% 0%
SotoGeovany 10% 12% 17% 4% 1% 0% 4% 0%
FukudomeKosuke 9% 31% 5% 2% 3% 3% 0% 0%
JohnsonReed 25% 18% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BakerJeff 13% 6% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
FontenotMike 11% 6% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
TheriotRyan 30% 17% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 3%
FuldSam 18% 13% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0%
ScalesBobby 10% 11% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
TaguchiSo 22% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CraigMatt 7% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GriffinJohn-Ford 3% 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
VittersJosh 10% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BlancoAndres 19% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SnyderBrad 3% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
ClevengerSteven 20% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LalliBlake 14% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CastroStarlin 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0%
RivasLuis 10% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ColvinTyler 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0%
SpencerMatthew 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
HillKoyie 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BarneyDarwin 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CampMatt 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
AdduciJames 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
CastilloWelington 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RobinsonChris 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BynumFreddie 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ThomasTony 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pitching Statistics - Starters
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Carlos Zambrano 29 3.67 13 8 31 31 193.2 178 79 17 79 157 126
Ryan Dempster 33 3.70 12 8 30 30 192.1 184 79 19 64 163 125
Ted Lilly* 34 3.70 13 9 30 30 185.0 171 76 25 48 155 122
Randy Wells 27 4.26 11 10 28 28 162.2 170 77 20 51 106 106
Tom Gorzelanny* 27 4.32 10 10 35 27 156.1 153 75 17 65 126 105
Andrew Cashner 23 4.67 3 4 25 25 94.1 95 49 9 56 63 97
Jay Jackson 22 4.82 7 9 25 25 123.1 122 66 17 62 104 94
Casey Fossum* 32 4.96 6 8 36 16 105.1 109 58 15 48 82 91
J.R. Mathes* 28 5.03 7 10 27 23 136.0 162 76 19 30 53 90
Esmailin Caridad 26 5.05 7 10 34 26 144.1 155 81 23 55 94 89
Carlos Silva 31 5.09 5 8 20 19 106.0 124 60 13 26 53 77
Casey Coleman 22 5.15 6 9 23 21 110.0 121 63 14 53 60 88
Christopher Carpenter 24 5.28 5 8 28 28 122.2 128 72 14 78 89 85
Marcos Mateo 26 5.29 3 5 36 17 98.2 106 58 13 53 62 85
Rafael Dolis 22 5.40 4 6 20 19 68.1 72 41 8 48 42 84
Jeff Samardzija 25 5.66 6 10 40 22 132.0 151 83 22 63 78 80
Mike Parisi 27 5.70 3 6 16 13 72.2 87 46 10 35 41 79
Mitchell Atkins 24 5.76 7 14 29 27 147.0 163 94 30 60 95 78
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Carlos Marmol 27 3.06 4 2 85 0 82.1 54 28 7 55 106 147
Angel Guzman 28 3.60 2 2 43 0 40.0 35 16 4 15 35 125
John Grabow* 31 3.84 3 2 74 0 70.1 61 30 8 35 62 118
Sean Marshall* 27 3.93 4 3 70 0 68.2 65 30 8 25 57 115
Jeff Stevens 26 3.95 4 3 48 0 66.0 58 29 7 33 65 114
Kevin Gregg 32 4.02 6 5 73 0 71.2 62 32 9 34 71 112
Jeff Gray 28 4.21 2 2 44 0 47.0 49 22 5 15 31 107
John Gaub* 25 4.47 2 2 47 0 58.1 52 29 7 38 62 101
B.J. Ryan* 34 4.50 2 2 34 0 32.0 30 16 4 17 28 100
Blake Parker 25 4.56 2 2 43 0 51.1 48 26 5 32 46 99
Justin Berg 26 4.87 3 4 59 0 64.2 69 35 6 37 35 93
Jeremy Papelbon* 27 4.96 4 6 37 10 94.1 104 52 12 39 57 91
Jeff Kennard 28 5.04 3 3 46 0 60.2 64 34 8 33 43 91
Chad Fox 39 5.14 0 0 8 0 7.0 7 4 1 3 5 88
Jayson Ruhlman* 25 5.43 3 5 56 0 68.0 75 41 8 42 45 83
David Patton 26 6.19 3 6 41 0 56.2 64 39 10 36 42 73
* - Throws Left
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
MarmolCarlos RP 84% 15% 1% DurenRyne LittellMark PlunkEric
GuzmanAngel RP 58% 34% 8% NunezVladimir LopezAquilino BaezDanys
ZambranoCarlos SP 86% 14% 0% JenningsJason TerrellWalt HamiltonJoey
DempsterRyan SP 83% 16% 0% BoddickerMike LearyTim ArrojoRolando
LillyTed SP 76% 23% 1% BannisterFloyd GuidryRon KeyJimmy
GrabowJohn RP 39% 51% 10% RomeroJ.C. CapillaDoug BridgesMarshall
MarshallSean RP 35% 54% 11% TessmerJay WilliamsonMark FrohwirthTodd
StevensJeff RP 33% 51% 16% BorlandToby FlorieBryce BukvichRyan
GreggKevin RP 31% 55% 15% DeLuciaRich HenryDwayne GriffithsBrian
GrayJeff RP 23% 49% 29% TessmerJay BuddieMike MontalvoRafael
WellsRandy SP 41% 52% 7% LohseKyle ClarkMark KlingenbeckScott
GorzelannyTom SP 36% 57% 7% YoungMatt MasonMike BellEric
GaubJohn RP 18% 48% 34% AlmanzaArmando JohnsonTyler ClarkeStan
RyanB.J. RP 22% 38% 40% CadaretGreg TolarKevin BridgesMarshall
ParkerBlake RP 16% 51% 33% BowlesBrian GibsonBob BarryKevin
CashnerAndrew SP 24% 49% 27% HaegerCharlie BergRick FanslerStan
JacksonJay SP 17% 57% 26% FisherPete HarnischPete KileDarryl
BergJustin RP 8% 41% 51% SmithDave HertzlerBarry MyersJimmy
LambertCasey RP 6% 40% 54% BikoThomas SturtzeTanyon AgostoJuan
FossumCasey SP 4% 37% 59% BoltonTom BeltranRigo BarnesBrian
PapelbonJeremy RP 3% 38% 59% MusselmanJeff ClementsPat SerafiniDan
MathesJ.R. SP 12% 46% 41% StobbsChuck LeekRandy HillmanEric
CaridadEsmailin SP 8% 51% 41% BittigerJeff KlingenbeckScott WengertDon
SilvaCarlos SP 14% 43% 43% TowersJosh BarrJim AbbottGlenn
FoxChad RP 34% 22% 44% MesaJose CarraraGiovanni McMahonDon
ColemanCasey SP 7% 45% 49% KylesStan DittlerJake WestbrookJake
CarpenterChristopheSP 5% 45% 51% HendricksonBen RitzKevin MitchellLarry
MateoMarcos SP 1% 27% 72% LeBlancRichie RobertsWillis SodowskyClint
DolisRafael SP 8% 31% 61% SilvaJesus BergRick HarbenAdam
RuhlmanJayson RP 1% 25% 73% TimberlakeDon BowlesBrian EyreWillie
SamardzijaJeff SP 1% 25% 75% GutierrezJim WeiblClint EdmondsonBrian
ParisiMike SP 3% 24% 73% CallawayMickey SparksSteve JacksonSteven
AtkinsMitch SP 1% 18% 82% LaffeyAaron BayBear HuffmanPhil
PattonDavid RP 0% 6% 94% ThompsonJohn WardenJames KolbDan
Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9
<1
MarmolCarlos 74% 98% 98% 0% 84%
LillyTed 47% 97% 26% 32% 32%
GuzmanAngel 47% 88% 34% 7% 55%
ZambranoCarlos 40% 97% 20% 0% 87%
DempsterRyan 41% 97% 29% 2% 67%
LillyTed 33% 93% 27% 22% 31%
GrabowJohn 32% 83% 42% 0% 63%
MarshallSean 28% 81% 25% 3% 59%
StevensJeff 27% 80% 73% 0% 58%
GreggKevin 24% 81% 79% 0% 47%
GrayJeff 23% 63% 2% 12% 68%
WellsRandy 7% 68% 1% 4% 43%
GorzelannyTom 6% 64% 18% 0% 53%
GaubJohn 13% 59% 88% 0% 48%
RyanB.J. 22% 60% 43% 0% 66%
ParkerBlake 12% 52% 44% 0% 69%
CashnerAndrew 5% 43% 4% 0% 77%
JacksonJay 2% 39% 29% 0% 29%
BergJustin 6% 35% 0% 0% 70%
LambertCasey 3% 34% 0% 1% 51%
FossumCasey 2% 32% 14% 0% 31%
PapelbonJeremy 2% 30% 1% 0% 46%
MathesJ.R. 2% 27% 0% 55% 29%
CaridadEsmailin 1% 21% 0% 0% 12%
SilvaCarlos 3% 29% 1% 47% 46%
FoxChad 34% 56% 27% 42% 81%
ColemanCasey 1% 20% 0% 0% 38%
CarpenterChristop 0% 17% 4% 0% 53%
MateoMarcos 1% 16% 0% 0% 34%
DolisRafael 1% 17% 1% 0% 62%
RuhlmanJayson 1% 17% 1% 0% 53%
SamardzijaJeff 0% 5% 0% 0% 13%
ParisiMike 0% 8% 0% 0% 36%
AtkinsMitch 0% 3% 0% 0% 1%
PattonDavid 0% 4% 8% 0% 14%
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
SotoGeovany .251 .333 .431 1410 4759 530 1194 275 19 182 865 594 1164 1 1 95
LeeDerrek .283 .365 .494 2435 8898 1381 2516 556 40 415 1521 1118 1994 118 52 121
RamirezAramis .284 .347 .494 2237 8384 1178 2380 497 30 402 1715 731 1274 22 19 113
TheriotRyan .283 .349 .363 1384 5264 745 1490 214 37 44 485 510 697 164 64 85
SorianoAlfonso .273 .324 .499 1817 7466 1160 2039 449 32 391 1057 504 1668 289 80 110
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+
DempsterRyan 160 149 87 4.30 653 429 2888 2871 321 1259 2431 103
GorzelannyTom 112 110 0 4.56 382 299 1741 1724 207 759 1382 98
LillyTed 183 145 0 4.14 468 443 2662 2525 390 864 2254 109
SilvaCarlos 90 102 2 4.80 398 255 1673 1996 210 350 757 92
ZambranoCarlos 198 147 0 3.86 517 496 3108 2821 291 1411 2590 116
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 23, 2010 at 03:32 PM (#3444863)CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin
SP Zambrano
SP Dempster
SP Lilly
SP Wells
SP Gorzelanny
CL Marmol
RP Guzman
RP Grabow
RP Marshall
RP Gregg
RP Stevens
You have to think they're going to try to play Carlos Silva as well.
I think Hendry will find a way to put him on the DL - some sort of phantom pitching injury like strained talent. It's what Hendry is good at.
Also, So Taguchi has an ODDIBE, but he doesn't have a projection line. And Theriot's missing his defensive projection.
I didn't know that John-Ford was still playing. I remember hearing reports of his power in the minors, and I got to see one of his two MLB home runs. That being said, looking back on his minors numbers, I'm not surprised that he never amounted to anything.
That's an odd trio for Soto.
Actually, Hoffpauir's comp is Frank Thomas the Lesser.
The extra Lilly is fixed - the better one was from when I messed up a macro and I forgot to delete it.
I don't see Aramis getting much HOF love. He'd need some kind of hook. That career line, OPS+ of 113 and 402 HRs, looks kind of like Graig Nettles - 390 HR, 110 OPS+, except that Nettles won 2 Gold Gloves and probably deserved 4-5 more. Nettles is a borderline HOMer (helped tremendously by the strength of his defense) who got no traction at all in HOF voting, despite having played in New York with two World Series rings.
Aramis, on the other hand, is regarded as an average fielder at best and probably below average. He'd need to do something like win both a regular-season and World Series MVP in the year that the Cubs finally win the World Series in addition to hitting 400 career HRs to have any chance of getting attention in Hall-of-Fame voting.
But still a fine hitter.
There was a recent thread about a player quiting baseball to become a priest. Frank did the opposite: Thomas studied for the priesthood in the Roman Catholic Church from 1941 through 1946. And no, he was too young to be avoiding the draft.
That happened last year. I believe he is going back to Japan in 2010 though.
I will take the under on Lilly and the over on Soto.
Don Geovany is headed for a huge bounceback year.
Cub fans have made this comment many times.
Being a good fanboy, though, I'll take the over on Z.
No, his defense is just off the charts!
I'm glad to see ZiPS likes Wells so much ... though given how much ZiPS likes Gorzelanny I may have to switch over to the jfish camp. :-)
Interesting that you rate Blanco's defense as average -- most Cub fans raved about it.
CF Byrd
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF Johnson
2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF Ford-Griffin
Nobody carries just 11 pitchers anymore (at least not for long). No Ford-Griffin. Somebody will take the Johnson role. Baker and Fontenot will presumably pretty much platoon with Baker playing the DeRosa role. I'd say there's still some small chance Hofpauir doesn't make the team but only if they (a) sign a decent-hitting LHB backup for Byrd (in place of Johnson) and then it will depend on who else is in camp.
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
LF Soriano
C Soto
2B Fontenot
SS Theriot
C Hill
1B Hoffpauir
CF
JohnsonFuld2B/3B Baker
SS Blanco
OF
Ford-GriffinColvinThis is probably more what it looks like, though the above poster is right in that the Cubs will likely break camp with 12 pitchers, so no Tyler Colvin (thankfully)
I figure if poor Chad Fox can brave his 6 yearly arm surgeries to get onto the field for a dozen innings, the least I can do is give the guy a projection. I mean, he's had like 2 healthy years in the last 15. Even Steve Ontiveros might have sympathy.
Yeah, ODDIBE's based on 7 innings, so it's super-wacky. As a result, he's the only pitcher I've projected that has a reasonable shot at a 0 ERA.
On bench construction, the Cubs are in a very minor pickle. Or not even pickle, just sub-optimal. You want LH backup for Lee, Soriano and Byrd; RH backup (even platoon) for Fukudome and a platoon at 2B (or just Fontenot to the bench and Baker full-time). Alas the number of useful LH 1B/LF/CF is probably currently zero (no, I don't want Kotsay or Erstad ... and I assume Edmonds is done) ... but I can't believe the Cubs want Kosuke to be full-time. (OK, they want him to be full-time but I think they recognize he's not a good option against LHP.) If you put Baker in RF against LHP, that leaves Fontenot at 2B or a platoon with Blanco -- neither of those work offensively.
The Cubs as is have a reasonable amount of flexibility so it's not a major issue, but I'd rather see a RHB who can handle CF as a backup and platoon with Kosuke than Fuld. Johnson might be good enough but isn't exactly the bat you want in RF. I have no idea who else I would want though.
Didn't know that about Thomas, but Max Carey was another player who was studying for the priesthood in seminary school before turning to professional baseball.
On Fuku vs. LHP -- the average OPS split for a LHB is 15% (if I remember my MGL correctly), his so far is 18%. Yes, a small sample size but his NPB platoon ratio would have to fantastic for me to regress his projected splits to substantially better than league average. His "good" year last year was largely a function of being platooned (8:1 PA platoon advantage). Ideally one of Fuld/Hoff would be replaced by a RHB. Not a huge deal -- any day's lineup almost always has a hole or two and Kosuke will bring his defense every day.
I thought your post from last year on how the Cardinals/LaRussa effectively man a 35-man roster with ten of those guys stocked in AAA, with full anticipation that they'll make it up to the ML roster and contribute at some point during the season, was a pretty fascinating look at roster construction. And it's probably something a good amount of otherwise well-run teams are missing out on.
Cubs signed Nady today, so he takes the "JF Griffin" role. I think that means the OF is set (and probably no Fuld, although he's the guy on the Iowa shuttle this year), and it makes Fukudome the backup CF. Not ideal. I'm underwhelmed by this roster, but don't have to squint too hard to see a bunch of lucky breaks turning this group into a contender. It's all completely downhill after this season though.
Dan if you had done this earlier you might have prevented an auto theft. Nobody would willfully claim that projection.
Ryan asked (and got) the Cubs to release him back in August. Apparently he was disappointed that his velocity wasn't returning. Methinks he will sit at home and just collect on the 15M or whatever the #### the Jays still owe him.
There are TWO "Hoffpauirs"? Please tell me they're related. I think you have my analysis of the Cubs' problem absolutely correct. The problem isn't that the manager can't see that he has a roster hole and he needs to bring up whoever is doing best at the position in AAA. The problem is that the organization does not focus on stocking said AAA roster with enough AAAA players. I hadn't noticed that the AAA roster does have pitching, because I wasn't trying to analyze the Cubs in detail (not qualified, with the likes of Walt Davis in the house). Thanks for the info. And Good Luck to the Cubs. I hope you guys finish a nice solid second and get the Wild Card. (Well, what more can you ask from a Cards' fan?)
Nope, Micah and Jarrett aren't related, but each did have a sibling in pro baseball, Brad and Josh, respectively.
20 games under .500
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