BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 05, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

It’s hard not to classify the 2009 season as a disappointment as the White Sox really should have been able to compete with two very ordinary teams in the Tigers and Twins. The Pale Hose received excellent pitching, looking even better than the ERA due to a merely adequate defense and a hitter-friendly environment, but the team was sabotaged by an extremely disappointing offense at essentially every position. Podsednik returned and was actually relatively adequate for the first time in years, but when Scott of the Pod People is standing out as a performer, you know you have some issues that need to be addressed.

Not a single player in the starting lineup, despite some impressive names, really had an excellent season. Or even a very good one for that matter. Without anyone playing at a star level, the usual bland supporting cast just dragged the team down even farther, with the offense ending up with an unimpressive 90 OPS+ on the season.

I expected Alex Rios to be a good pickup for the Sox and as I noted at the time of the trade, I have a tendency to get every single Kenny Williams move wrong. As such, Rios hit 199/299/301 after the waiver claim. Warning to White Sox fans: I also liked White Flag II, so watch Jim Thome sign DH in the AL and hit 78 home runs in 2010.

On the plus side, the entire rotation is returning and I agree with ZiPS that all 5 starters being average or better is a reasonable bet. The offense does need help though and it’s a rather difficult offense to upgrade, given that it was simply mediocre all-around rather than having a couple obvious sore spots. The team should still be competitive with a better Quentin season and no juggernaut competitors in the Central.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Paul Konerko             1b  34  .269  .349  .465 136 499  64 134 27  1 23  73  58  90  1  0   114 

Carlos Quentin           lf  27  .261  .353  .459 119 418  67 109 24  1 19  69  42  72  4  1   114 

Jermaine Dye             rf  36  .265  .334  .474 128 479  69 127 26  1 24  70  46 102  2  2   112 

Gordon Beckham           3b  23  .267  .334  .450 152 580  80 155 42  2 20  84  52 101 10  4   106 

Alexis Rios              rf  29  .275  .325  .442 146 579  75 159 35  4 18  70  42 100 22  6   102 

Alexei Ramirez           ss  28  .288  .333  .427 141 517  65 149 23  2 15  68  36  66 14  7   101 

A.J. Pierzynski*         c   33  .285  .322  .417 129 480  53 137 25  1 12  47  22  62  1  1    95 

Chris Getz*              2b  26  .277  .334  .367 113 412  53 114 19  3  4  35  33  54 18  4    87 

Scott Podsednik*         lf  34  .279  .336  .384 104 365  51 102 20  3  4  29  29  56 20  8    91 

Michael Restovich        lf  31  .247  .308  .417 121 441  55 109 23  2 16  52  37 122  1  1    91 

Mark Kotsay*             1b  34  .272  .321  .376  84 290  30  79 16  1  4  35  22  33  3  2    85 

Ramon Castro             c   34  .243  .305  .408  54 152  16  37  7  0  6  24  13  38  0  0    88 

Jayson Nix               2b  27  .249  .315  .386 103 342  51  85 18  1  9  42  30  75 13  4    85 

Josh Fields              3b  27  .237  .311  .394 117 409  49  97 18  2 14  50  43 128  7  5    86 

Tyler Flowers            c   24  .234  .319  .369 119 428  53 100 23  1 11  54  49 127  3  3    83 

Keith Ginter             2b  34  .246  .319  .349 101 370  35  91 18  1  6  37  34  72  2  2    78 

Andy Cannizaro           ss  31  .260  .321  .351  77 262  28  68 13  1  3  23  20  36  1  1    79 

Wilson Betemit#          3b  28  .232  .290  .391 112 302  34  70 18  0 10  41  25  88  1  0    79 

Stefan Gartrell          rf  26  .234  .293  .383 116 423  52  99 20  2 13  50  32 125  5  2    78 

DeWayne Wise*            cf  32  .243  .292  .398  89 226  31  55 11  3  6  19  13  50 10  5    81 

John Shelby              cf  24  .241  .287  .372 121 481  58 116 27  3 10  49  29 107 22  8    74 

Dayan Viciedo            3b  21  .248  .281  .360 138 544  68 135 23  1 12  70  22 115  4  2    69 

Cole Armstrong*          c   26  .248  .283  .358  85 307  26  76 16  0  6  31  14  69  0  0    69 

Brent Lillibridge        ss  26  .232  .295  .330 120 427  57  99 18  3  6  39  34 105 24  6    66 

Eider Torres#            ss  27  .259  .300  .320 108 425  50 110 16  2  2  36  24  67 18  9    65 

Justin Knoedler          c   29  .228  .271  .360  55 189  27  43 11  1  4  24  11  48  2  0    66 

Jordan Danks*            cf  23  .215  .287  .321 109 446  62  96 19  2  8  33  43 137  8  4    62 

Justin Fuller*           ss  26  .234  .301  .341  63 205  30  48  9  2  3  16  17  49  3  7    71 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf 

Konerko            Av   Av                   

Quentin                             Fr    Fr 

Dye                                       Pr 

Beckham                       Av Av          

Rios                                   Av Vg 

Ramirez                    Av    Av          

Pierzynski*        Fr                        

Getz*                      Av    Pr Av       

Podsednik*                          Av Fr    

Restovich                           Av    Av 

Kotsay*                 Av          Av Pr Av 

Castro             Fr                        

Nix                        Vg Av Av Av    Av 

Fields                        Fr    Fr       

Flowers            Fr   Av                   

Ginter                  Av Fr Av             

Cannizaro                  Fr Fr Pr          

Betemit#                Av Fr Av Pr          

Gartrell                            Av    Av 

Wise*                               Vg Vg Vg 

Shelby                              Av Av Av 

Viciedo                 Av    Fr             

Armstrong*         Fr                        

Lillibridge                Av    Av Av       

Torres#                    Av    Fr          

Knoedler           Av                        

Danks*                              Av Av    

Fuller*                    Av Av Av          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name                   PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

KonerkoPaul            1B    8%   26%   26%   30%    9%      DowningBrian     ThorntonAndre         BaylorDon

QuentinCarlos          LF   13%   28%   26%   22%   11%        MenchKevin         LeeCarlos   MartinezCarmelo

DyeJermaine            RF   13%   23%   21%   24%   19%      WinfieldDave        HickmanJim        ParkerDave

BeckhamGordon          3B   13%   22%   30%   25%   10%      ColesDarnell         LemonChet  EncarnacionEdwin

RiosAlexis             RF   10%   21%   19%   23%   27%          CowensAl           FoxPete   EncarnacionJuan

RamirezAlexei          SS   30%   26%   26%   13%    6%         AlleyGene      TejadaMiguel       LoganJohnny

PierzynskiA.J.          C    8%   27%   31%   26%    8%    FletcherDarrin       HarperBrian       Lo DucaPaul

PodsednikScott         LF    2%    8%   10%   19%   59%        TovarCesar        BrutonBill        GladdenDan

GetzChristopher        2B    6%   13%   23%   34%   25%         RemyJerry       WoodardMike       KennedyAdam

RestovichMike          LF    1%    6%    7%   16%   70%      SpencerShane      CordovaMarty           RudiJoe

NixJayson              2B    6%    9%   18%   32%   35%       MoutonJames      MichaelsCass         EarlScott

CastroRamon             C    7%   18%   33%   34%    8%       SnyderFrank    SantiagoBenito     AinsmithEddie

KotsayMark             1B    0%    1%    3%   15%   81%     BiittnerLarry        AdamsGlenn     KluszewskiTed

FieldsJosh             3B    2%    3%    8%   27%   60%       McnallySean      PerezEduardo      BrubakerBill

WiseDewayne            CF    1%    2%    8%   29%   60%        LittleMark        MorenoOmar        VarshoGary

FlowersTyler            C    0%    7%   23%   44%   26%   EtchebarrenAndy       GibbonsJohn       HuberJustin

CannizaroAndy          SS    1%    3%   12%   36%   48%        GomezChris        AmaroRuben     BlanksLarvell

BetemitWilson          3B    0%    0%    2%   16%   82%          TatumJim       BlowersMike        PresleyJim

GartrellMaurice        RF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%       KrauseScott     SherrodJustin        EvansTerry

ShelbyJohn             CF    0%    0%    4%   24%   71%         MatosLuis        LittleMark       BufordDamon

GinterKeith            2B    0%    2%    6%   19%   72%       TrilloManny    WarstlerRabbit     O’RourkeFrank

LillibridgeBrent       SS    1%    2%   10%   33%   55%      FischlinMike     FurmaniakJ.J.        LunaHector

ArmstrongCole           C    0%    0%    2%   22%   76%      HoustonTyler       GilGeronimo   LaFrancoisRoger

ViciedoDayan           3B    0%    0%    0%    3%   96%       MoronkoJeff      CordidoJulio         BellRicky

KnoedlerJustin          C    0%    1%    4%   24%   71%        HooverPaul     HemsleyRollie          RoofPhil

TorresEider            SS    0%    0%    2%   14%   83%         OlmedoRay    GriffinAlfredo      IzturisCesar

DanksJordan            CF    0%    0%    0%    4%   96%        PaulXavier    BernadinaRoger     BudzinskiMark

FullerJustin           SS    0%    1%    1%    2%   97%        JohnsonTim       SaylorJamie     PerezSantiago

Name                .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG  140 OPS+   45 2B    10 3B    30 HR    30 SB

KonerkoPaul            11%      15%      18%       6%       1%       0%      14%       0%

QuentinCarlos           9%      19%      15%       7%       0%       0%       4%       0%

DyeJermaine             9%       5%      26%       7%       1%       0%      18%       0%

BeckhamGordon          10%       7%      12%       5%      36%       0%       6%       0%

RiosAlexis             17%       4%      11%       2%      13%       6%       5%      14%

RamirezAlexei          36%       8%       9%       2%       0%       0%       3%       0%

PierzynskiA.J.         28%       4%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%

PodsednikScott         26%      12%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       9%

GetzChristopher        19%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%

RestovichMike           3%       1%       5%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%

NixJayson               3%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

CastroRamon             8%       5%      10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%

KotsayMark             19%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

FieldsJosh              1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%

WiseDewayne             4%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%

FlowersTyler            0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

CannizaroAndy          10%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

BetemitWilson           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

GartrellMaurice         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

ShelbyJohn              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       9%

GinterKeith             3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

LillibridgeBrent        0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%      18%

ArmstrongCole           2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

ViciedoDayan            1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

KnoedlerJustin          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

TorresEider             5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%

DanksJordan             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

FullerJustin            3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

MauerJoe               90%      93%      64%      60%       5%       0%      11%       0%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

KonerkoPaul      .271 .347 .476 2374  8588   1184   2329  437  13  431 1374   935   1447  10   2  112

DyeJermaine      .269 .334 .479 2291  8466   1254   2280  466  30  418 1331   780   1739  52  35  109

QuentinCarlos    .250 .343 .444 1442  4989    772   1246  265  14  225  799   507    878  42  17  106

PierzynskiA.J.   .282 .321 .415 1979  7139    826   2014  392  22  172  781   319    920  16  22   91

RamirezAlexei    .275 .321 .410 1480  5405    663   1488  214  18  160  691   368    729 125  72   92

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Jake Peavy                29   3.99  12   8  26  26   155.2  143   69  18   59  154  115 

John Danks*               25   4.16  13  11  34  34   201.0  201   93  24   72  148  110 

Daniel Hudson             23   4.31  11  10  32  28   148.1  150   71  14   57  115  107 

Mark Buehrle*             31   4.36  12  12  31  31   200.1  230   96  29   53  106  105 

Gavin Floyd               27   4.78  11  12  34  33   201.1  208  107  30   70  142   96 

Carlos Torres             27   5.18   6   8  37  17   121.2  132   70  13   70   85   89 

Freddy Garcia             34   5.34   3   4  11  11    55.2   63   33   9   19   36   86 

Wes Whisler*              27   6.18   7  14  28  26   141.1  186   97  21   66   49   74 

Brandon Hynick            25   6.24   7  13  28  28   157.1  194  109  32   52   66   74 

Lucas Harrell             25   6.24   4   8  21  21   102.1  122   71  14   71   48   73 

John Ely                  24   6.48   6  12  27  27   134.2  161   97  26   69   79   71 

John van Benschoten       30   6.63   4  10  26  18    95.0  112   70  16   57   57   69 

Brian Omogrosso           26   6.94   3   7  24  11    71.1   82   55  12   56   42   67 

Jeffrey Marquez           25   7.42   4  12  17  17    83.2  113   69  20   42   33   62 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Matt Thornton*            33   3.82   5   3  69   0    63.2   57   27   7   23   66  120 

Octavio Dotel             36   4.12   3   3  57   0    54.2   49   25   8   28   63  110 

Bobby Jenks               29   4.20   4   3  61   0    60.0   59   28   7   19   47  110 

D.J. Carrasco             33   4.21   3   2  46   1    83.1   87   39   8   30   53  107 

Tony Pena                 28   4.61   5   5  80   0    82.0   90   42  11   29   55   99 

Scott Linebrink           33   4.69   4   4  58   0    55.2   60   29   9   22   46   97 

Derek Rodriguez           27   5.48   2   4  48   1    65.2   70   40   9   37   44   84 

Randy Williams*           34   5.52   1   2  48   0    44.0   48   27   8   23   35   82 

Jhonny Nunez              24   5.55   2   3  51   0    73.0   79   45  12   39   57   83 

Jon Link                  26   5.63   2   3  55   0    54.1   58   34   9   34   44   82 

Fernando Hernandez        25   5.65   3   5  57   0    65.1   73   41   8   38   43   82 

Kelvin Jimenez            29   5.86   3   5  54   2    78.1   96   51  12   31   38   79 

Clevelan Santeliz         23   5.92   2   3  42   0    51.2   56   34   7   46   36   79 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player                 PO   TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

ThorntonMatt           RP   47%   44%    9%      RhodesArthur        MyersRandy     RinconRicardo

PeavyJake              SP   67%   32%    1%       AppierKevin        SmoltzJohn      ColonBartolo

DanksJohn              SP   52%   46%    3%         WolfRandy      PettitteAndy        AverySteve

JenksBobby             RP   28%   55%   17%    AlmanzarCarlos           BeckRod       SchmidtDave

DotelOctavio           RP   28%   52%   20%         PlunkEric         GordonTom        SeanezRudy

CarrascoD.J.           RP   21%   60%   19%     TavarezJulian        AdamsTerry           TamJeff

HudsonDaniel           SP   50%   45%    4%        DavisStorm        MadduxGreg IsringhausenJason

BuehrleMark            SP   29%   58%   13%     McGregorScott      SwindellGreg        JonesRandy

PenaTony               RP    8%   56%   36%        LewisColby      ReitsmaChris        BuddieMike

LinebrinkScott         RP   11%   50%   39%   St. ClaireRandy   HernandezXavier      LopezAurelio

FloydGavin             SP   16%   62%   22%      GarciaFreddy     BoddickerMike       PineiroJoel

TorresCarlos           SP    1%   33%   66%       LaxtonBrett        LomonKevin       ReichertDan

GarciaFreddy           SP    9%   39%   52%    SaberhagenBret     RasmussenEric        MilackiBob

RodriguezDerek         RP    1%   24%   75%       BorowskiJoe     PisciottaMarc       MarquezJeff

NunezJhonny            RP    1%   22%   77%         MotaDanny         BussaTodd      SessionsDoug

WilliamsRandy          RP    2%   20%   77%        TolarKevin        SearageRay        GibsonPaul

LinkJon                RP    2%   22%   75%       HartleyMike       ColomeJesus      BlasucciTony

HernandezFernando      RP    1%   21%   79%     SchneiderPaul     ChavezAnthony         MillsAlan

SantelizClevelan       RP    1%   14%   85%        NealBlaine          MeekEvan           WinnJim

JimenezKelvin          RP    0%   12%   87%        CoreyBryan       BradleyBert   WinchesterScott

WhislerWes             SP    0%    8%   92%         MutisJeff     AndersonJimmy       RundlesRich

HynickBrandon          SP    0%    8%   92%      MeadowsBrian        WegmanBill       TottenHeath

HarrellLucas           SP    0%    9%   90%        BuddieMike       PumphreyKen    CocanowerJaime

ElyJohn                SP    0%    5%   95%      RandallScott       StewartPaul      CressendJack

van BenschotenJohn     SP    0%    5%   95%         GlynnRyan      StullEverett         JungeEric

OmogrossoBrian         SP    0%    2%   98%       BockusRandy        MustadEric        ShimpTommy

MarquezJeff            SP    0%    1%   99%  KlingenbeckScott     CrawfordSteve     KelleyAnthony

Player      ThorntonMatt               40% PeavyJake                  24% DanksJohn                  14% JenksBobby                 22% DotelOctavio               21% CarrascoD.J.               16% HudsonDaniel               13% BuehrleMark PenaTony LinebrinkScott             11% FloydGavin TorresCarlos GarciaFreddy RodriguezDerek NunezJhonny WilliamsRandy LinkJon HernandezFernando SantelizClevelan JimenezKelvin               0% WhislerWes                  0% HynickBrandon               0% HarrellLucas                0% ElyJohn                     0% van BenschotenJohn          0% OmogrossoBrian              0% MarquezJeff                 0%

         130 ERA+   100 ERA+     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
 85%        88%         3%        64%
 89%        80%         1%        49%
 81%         5%         1%        40%
 72%        15%        10%        56%
 74%        97%         0%        34%
 72%         0%         3%        76%
 77%        10%         0%        81%
 8%        53%         0%        22%        21%
 6%        53%         1%         2%        40%
 47%        24%         1%        19%
 2%        41%         2%         1%        14%
 1%        22%         4%         0%        64%
 2%        21%         1%         6%        23%
 1%        16%         2%         0%        35%
 1%        15%        12%         0%        21%
 2%        17%        19%         0%        22%
 1%        19%        18%         0%        25%
 1%        13%         1%         0%        43%
 1%        11%         4%         0%        51%
 8%         0%         1%        22%
 1%         0%         0%        23%
 1%         0%         1%         2%
 2%         0%         0%        30%
 1%         0%         0%         3%
 1%         0%         0%        19%
 1%         0%         0%        16%
 0%         0%         0%         1%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G    GS    IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

BuehrleMark       212   180     0  4.18    540   515  3416   3724    437    846   1921    113

GarciaFreddy      125    88     0  4.17    294   292  1868   1835    226    602   1362    111

PeavyJake         192   155     0  3.85    456   457  2761   2501    320   1019   2752    115

All figures in % based on projection playing time. 



Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.


Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 05, 2009 at 06:23 PM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Juan V Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3340857)

At this rate, all teams will be projected before the end of the World Series!

2. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:12 PM (#3340861)

Thanks for the effort, Dan.

It's interesting that, even though ZiPS doesn't hate the White Sox starters, it predicts them all to regress (and Floyd and Peavy to regress considerably).

It's also worth noting that Alex Rios seemed to break out of his horrible slump in the last two weeks of the season. I'll make a bold prediction and say that he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.

3. Cris E Posted: October 05, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3340902)

...he won't hurt the White Sox in 2010.

Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I'm not trying to be harsh or even guess what he'll do next year. Mostly I stand in awe of Kenny Williams. That guy has balls as big as church bells to make some of the moves he has. Rios looked shaky in TOR, and the rumors that came out after the deal had to be available to Kenny beforehand, and yet he throws down for the guy at retail.

I used to laugh when he did some of the goofy moves, but over the years his outcomes have outpaced my expectations so I've stopped snarking. (Peavy looks like he's recovering as expected, but that Rios contract, man, church bells.)

4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3341006)

Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?

5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:20 PM (#3341014)

Long-term, should they leave Beckham at 3B, or move him to 2B/SS and try and pick up another corner bat?

I think you always push a guy as far "up" the defensive spectrum you can without exposing him, unless he gets injured at the tougher positions.

6. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: October 05, 2009 at 09:56 PM (#3341042)

A couple of quick thoughts...

- ZiPS still doesn't like Floyd very much. It apparently doesn't buy the jump in his K-rate (7.6/9 this year versus a career average of ~6.5 coming into the year, although I'm not sure how relevant Floyd's Philly stats are on what he'll do in 2010).

- I certainly hope that Gordon Beckham is more Chet Lemon than Darnell Coles or Edwin Encarnacion.

- I'm pretty underwhelmed by that Tyler Flowers projection. He spent (most of) the season at Birmingham (a notorious pitcher's park) and had an OPS near 1.000. Does ZiPS think the k-rate is that debilitating?

- The rotation excites the hell out of me. I'd take the over on the Buehrle, Danks and Floyd projections. I'd be very happy if Peavy finished with those numbers (although I'm expecting a much higher IP total). Garcia as a fifth starter appears to be perfectly acceptable and having Hudson waiting in the wings is nice.

Dan -- do you have a projection for CJ Retherford? As always, these are much appreciated, especially getting 'em out this early.

7. Walt Davis Posted: October 05, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3341099)

oh, reverse order of team names. I was hoping for something creative this time around. :-)

On Beckham, 3B and 2B are pretty much the same spot on the defensive spectrum and it really depends on Beckham's mix of arm vs. range as to which he'd be better at. And 3B are "corner bats" in only the technical sense, they hit more like CF than 1B/LF/RF. The question normally would be whether he can handle short but the White Sox already have a pretty good SS ... unless he's moving to CF.

Anyway, a team in a position somewhat similar to where they were last offseason. Dye's an FA right? I'll guess that Rios moves back to RF. They have holes at DH, 2B (or 3B if they move Beckham), and CF while last year they had holes at 3B, 2B and CF. Abreu would look pretty good on this team (some DH, some RF with Rios sliding over). Branyan too though he doesn't seem like the Sox type of player. If they grabbed either of those two, Nady might not be a bad addition. Cameron would be a nice pickup.

The last few years, Williams has sort of specialized in the post-injury/"disappointment" end of the market (Dye, Thome, Quentin, Rios, Pierzynski ... OK, he's just annoying). Who, besides Nady, is on that end of the market this offseason? I could see him grabbing Upton from the Rays -- depends on whether they buy the "lazy" label. Burrell certainly is down here. Kelly Johnson? Felipe Lopez? Chris Young?

8. Walt Davis Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:30 AM (#3341265)

Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).

9. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:42 AM (#3341270)

Is that what $10m is supposed to buy these days? Wow, is the bar really set that low for Rios?

I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.

10. bhoov Posted: October 06, 2009 at 05:01 AM (#3341277)

Rios is definitely slated for CF. Kenny and Ozzie have repeatedly said he's the CF next year. The only reason he occasionally played RF this year is they didn't want Quentin or Pods playing RF after not getting any reps there all year. So when those 3 played they went Pods CF, Q LF, Rios RF. With Dye gone, I believe they will start either Quentin or whoever the other OF is in RF and leave them there with Rios in CF. In CF if he rebounds as ZIPS projects thats around a 3 WAR player (with above average d in CF as he has in the past). So if he does that he'll be worth his contract.

11. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:24 PM (#3341491)

I assumed he meant that Rios won't hurt the team payroll-wise; that he'll be more or less worth his contract when considering offense and defense. I could be wrong.

Yes. If he hits as ZiPS projects (and I think he will) and plays plus defense in center, he'll earn his money next year.

I imagine the outfield will be Podsednik in left, Rios in center, and some combination of Quentin, Wise, Kotsay, or whoever else they pick up off the scrap heap in right. As Dan suggests, there's not a whole lot of room for improvement, and the Sox have pretty much made their bed alread in terms of 2010 payroll. As much as I'd like to see it, they're not adding Chone Figgins or Bobby Abreu - Williams already made his big moves for 2010 when he added Peavy and Rios.

12. ColonelTom Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:41 PM (#3341510)

Love the rotation, hate the lineup. Only two players above a .340 OBP, and one of them (Quentin) has had major problems staying healthy in his brief career, including a foot problem that might be chronic. Abreu would give them a huge boost offensively, but Dewey's right, that's going to be a serious payroll stretch given their recent acquisitions. Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.

13. RJ in TO Posted: October 06, 2009 at 03:54 PM (#3341516)

Lopez is on the annoying list. At least he seems to annoy teams a lot (6 teams in 4 years).

Many moons ago, whene the Jays traded Lopez away, there were rumors that it was at least partially because he'd been introduced to the party life by Raul Mondesi, and taken to it like a fish to water.

If he's still living that lifestyle, I can see it being a major source of annoyance to his teams.

14. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: October 06, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3341522)

Bringing Thome back on a one-year deal, if the price is right, might be a sensible move.

I'd like to see that as well, but the team is talking about a rotating DH for 2010, using it primarily to try and keep Podsednik and Quentin healthy, and to spell Konerko.

15. NotLikely20 Posted: October 13, 2009 at 09:08 PM (#3351281)

Agree with the love the rotation, hate the lineup people. However, I think Dye is perfect for the DH role, as his defensive injuries always seem to be followed by a long slump. I think he hits .280 with 35+ HR's for whichever team takes a chance and puts him at DH. The key to the 2010's lineup is obviously a healthy Carlos Quentin. If he comes into camp ready to go, I think the Sox win 90+ games and the division due to their excellent pitching staff. If the Brewers want to part with Prince Fielder for Floyd + ????, Williams should jump on that...as Konerko is obviously well past his prime

16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3359341)

Hey White Sox fans, got a question for you.

On USSMariner, Dave Cameron is suggesting the M's should trade Jose Lopez, Mark Lowe and Jason Vargas for John Danks.

I said I though the trade was ridiculous; Kenny Williams would laugh then hangup. He defends the trade as fair.

What do you guys think?

17. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3359365)

18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3359379)

I think it is ridiculous. I don't see why (a) the Sox would feel the need to deal Danks; and (b) why the Sox would be so eager to get Jose Lopez. There are some decent 2B on the free agent market, and a few that will be available in trades that won't require Danks, and I don't think Lopez/Vargas/Lowe is anywhere near worth what Danks is worth. As one of the commenters noted, it seems like a sports talk radio "let's trade our spare parts for one really good player" trade proposal.

I was that commenter :-)

Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way) but I'll give it right back.

I suggested the M's should send King Felix to the Yankees for Cano, Coke and Mitre. It works according to his "math".

19. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:30 PM (#3359389)

20. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:35 PM (#3359396)

Dave's abusing me pretty good (as is his way)

Well, it's because you are so abrasive.

Yes, the trade proposal is ridiculous.

21. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: October 20, 2009 at 04:40 PM (#3359401)

Not only is that trade ridiculous, but Kenny Williams shouldn't be trading away starting pitching this winter. He has five viable starting pitchers, one prospect that looks like he might be good, and then nothing.

Looking at the projections again, I'm actually pretty pleased that ZiPS sees Carlos Torres as being a more-than-acceptable depth guy. Barring a trade he'll be the 7th on the SP depth chart (perhaps sixth if they don't want to jerk Hudson around and just want to stick him in the bullpen for the year), which seems about right.

22. glover6ss Posted: October 28, 2009 at 12:39 AM (#3368021)

Can we get a projection on Ehren Wassermann? Thanks.

23. BobbyS Posted: October 29, 2009 at 05:53 AM (#3369884)

Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.

Even more so, Jenks' regression seems a bit harsh. He got his K rate back up and a spike back near/above normal BABIP hurt his overall line and performance, especially with the long ball toward the end. But considering the benefit of the doubt Rios is getting after his performance...this surprised me.

24. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 23, 2009 at 04:15 AM (#3420520)

Jason Botts, please. (Now a Pale Hose farmhand after flubbing his shot in Japan.)

25. Harold can be a fun sponge Posted: December 23, 2009 at 11:34 PM (#3421273)

Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman. Szym projects Konerko to finish with an even lower OPS+, and he doesn't make much up on defense, even against Kingman.

Rk             Player OPS+  HR    PA    R  RBI   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1          Cal Ripken  112 431 12883 1647 1695 .276 .340 .447 .788
2        Dave Kingman  115 442  7429  901 1210 .236 .302 .478 .780
3        Andre Dawson  119 438 10769 1373 1591 .279 .323 .482 .806
4       Darrell Evans  119 414 10737 1344 1354 .248 .361 .431 .792
5         Ernie Banks  122 512 10395 1305 1636 .274 .330 .500 .830
6          Sammy Sosa  128 609  9896 1475 1667 .273 .344 .534 .878
7        Eddie Murray  129 504 12817 1627 1917 .287 .359 .476 .836
8    Carl Yastrzemski  129 452 13991 1816 1844 .285 .379 .462 .841
9       Dave Winfield  130 465 12358 1669 1833 .283 .353 .475 .827
10      Juan Gonzalez  132 434  7155 1061 1404 .295 .343 .561 .904
11    Rafael Palmeiro  132 569 12046 1663 1835 .288 .371 .515 .885
12       Jose Canseco  132 462  8129 1186 1407 .266 .353 .515 .867
13     Billy Williams  133 426 10519 1410 1475 .290 .361 .492 .853
14       Fred McGriff  134 493 10174 1349 1550 .284 .377 .509 .886
15        Ken Griffey  136 630 11196 1656 1829 .285 .371 .541 .912
16     Carlos Delgado  138 473  8657 1241 1512 .280 .383 .546 .929
17     Reggie Jackson  139 563 11416 1551 1702 .262 .356 .490 .846
18     Gary Sheffield  140 509 10947 1636 1676 .292 .393 .514 .907
19        Duke Snider  140 407  8237 1259 1333 .295 .380 .540 .919
20        Mike Piazza  142 427  7745 1048 1335 .308 .377 .545 .922
21       Jason Giambi  143 409  8135 1159 1330 .282 .405 .527 .932
22      Chipper Jones  143 426  9273 1458 1445 .307 .406 .541 .947 

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/23/2009.

26. JPWF13

Posted: December 24, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3421770)

Will Konerko be the worst player with 400 career HR? Right now, that's probably Kingman

If he gets to 400
right now I have Kong with 1.1 wins over Konerko (by the way I do wins over replacement)
I would think that Konerko, if he lasts to 400 would pass Kong and Kong would remain the worst 400+ Homer guy

But it could be close, a couple 100 OPS+ seasons (which is around where I set replacement level for 1B/Dhs) could net Konerko 400 HRs without letting him gain that 1.1 wins he needs to beat Kong.

27. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 16, 2010 at 06:45 PM (#3439177)

Yeah, ZiPs really doesn't like Floyd.

It never has, and yet that doesn't seem to stop Floyd.

2008: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.87; actual ERA = 3.84

2009: ZiPS projected ERA = 5.11; actual ERA = 4.06

2010: ZiPS projected ERA = 4.78

28. Greg K Posted: January 16, 2010 at 06:53 PM (#3439178)

Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?
Is it his declining k-rate?

29. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 17, 2010 at 09:19 PM (#3439837)

It's the fact that any person who conjures a projection system programs it to hate the White Sox.

30. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: January 18, 2010 at 03:30 PM (#3440162)

I'm not sure where to mention this, but the White Sox signed Bobby Jenks ($7.5 million) and Carlos Quentin ($3.2 million) to one-year deals this weekend.

As I write this, they have two arb-eligible players yet unsigned - John Danks and Tony Pena. I hope that Danks gets a multi-year deal, and they go year-to-year with Pena.

31. RJ in TO Posted: January 18, 2010 at 03:37 PM (#3440169)

Maybe this has been covered before, but ZiPS really doesn't like Buehrle does it?

Most projection systems don't like Buehrle. I think PECOTA had something like a 5 year run of predicting a Buehrle implosion. I think it's that, as you note, he doesn't have a very impressive K-rate, and he also gives up his share of HR. I'm not sure, but I also don't think that most of these systems consider his ability to completely destroy the running game - for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.

32. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: January 18, 2010 at 03:49 PM (#3440180)

for his career, base stealers are 40 for 95 against him, and that doesn't include his pickoffs.

And that probably actually underestimates Buehrle's ability to hold runners - something like 2/3 of his starts have been pitched to either AJ Pierzynski or Sandy Alomar, neither one of whom is a particularly good thrower.

33. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:35 PM (#3441272)

FWIW, Tony Pena ($1.2 million) and John Danks ($3.45 million) have both signed 1-year deals.

34. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:43 PM (#3441283)

Ehren Wassermann is with the Phillies now, for all you Eh-Wass fans out there who wanted to see his projection.

35. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3441285)

With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).

36. More Dewey is Always Good Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:46 PM (#3441291)

With the signings, I have the 2010 payroll at 101.7 million with four "open" spots (for Beckham, Nix, a backup outfielder, and another reliever).

A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?

37. Frisco Cali Posted: January 19, 2010 at 07:49 PM (#3441300)

A backup outfielder? Isn't that what Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones are?

Kotsay is backup 1B.
Jones is backup DH.

Ozzie will make it work. Somehow.

38. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: February 18, 2010 at 05:38 PM (#3462839)

Wow, ZiPS sure likes Hudson. Good. So do I.

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