BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 31, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

It should hardly come as a surprise to anybody who watched the Indians this season, but the team has some serious rotation issues going forward. Any team needs to have a lot of money to quickly be able to replace three excellent starters (Carmona’s pre-implosion performance was still lost by the team, even if they weren’t able to cash in like they did with Lee and Sabathia). The bullpen should perform a lot better, but that’s going to hardly be enough with an extremely shaky rotation and an offense of serviceable players.

Don’t get me wrong, the team isn’t devoid of talent and if a few of the starting prospects stepping forward could make the Indians competitive fairly soon. It’s a weak division and while the team has similar issues to the Orioles (but slightly worse), there’s no juggernaut in the Central to worry about, let alone two.

Do remember, however, that some of the team’s best pitching prospects aren’t projected because they are still pretty far away. If one or two of Jason Knapp, Nick Hagadone, and Alex White pan out, the situation starts to look a little less bleak. The team can hardly be counting on Scott Lewis or especially Adam Miller, but they would be nice bonuses if the Indians are a bit lucky. This organization has a good long-term future, but that future isn’t 2010.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Shin-Soo Choo*           rf  27  .286  .375  .466 127 461  75 132 30  4 15  79  59 116 10  3   121 

Grady Sizemore*          cf  27  .264  .368  .482 134 537  92 142 30  6 25  86  80 121 15  5   122 

Travis Hafner*           dh  33  .257  .365  .448 102 362  48  93 19  1 16  64  58  80  0  0   114 

Carlos Santana#          c   24  .250  .352  .429 127 448  69 112 28  2 16  74  70 102  1  2   105 

Matt LaPorta             lf  25  .265  .338  .443 114 422  63 112 25  1 16  72  38  88  1  1   104 

Asdrubal Cabrera#        ss  24  .281  .344  .406 145 549  83 154 36  3  9  78  51 106 10  3    97 

Jhonny Peralta           3b  28  .265  .327  .420 146 567  75 150 33  2 17  89  51 133  1  1    96 

Jordan Brown*            lf  26  .278  .331  .405 122 474  57 132 29  2  9  64  34  76  3  2    93 

Michael Brantley*        cf  23  .282  .348  .360 134 547  84 154 24  2  5  54  55  60 32  7    88 

Andy Marte               3b  26  .255  .303  .426 121 420  48 107 23  2 15  66  29  83  1  0    90 

Luis Valbuena*           2b  24  .256  .320  .384 135 484  75 124 26  3 10  56  46  97  6  5    85 

Nicholas Weglarz*        lf  22  .228  .331  .357 113 403  58  92 18  2 10  53  56 109  2  3    82 

Matt McBride             lf  25  .256  .302  .381 101 399  46 102 27  1  7  61  21  61  0  0    79 

Lou Marson               c   24  .247  .338  .325 109 381  53  94 19  1  3  43  51  89  2  2    77 

Lonnie Chisenhall*       3b  21  .248  .300  .379 109 443  51 110 24  2 10  65  29  94  2  1    78 

Trevor Crowe#            cf  26  .249  .319  .342 113 421  60 105 21  3  4  42  41  84 14  6    75 

Chris Gimenez            c   27  .229  .313  .347 103 354  43  81 16  1  8  37  38  97  2  2    74 

Wyatt Toregas            c   27  .247  .303  .349  92 312  26  77 14  0  6  41  23  63  1  1    72 

Stephen Head*            rf  26  .248  .290  .360 104 403  42 100 22  1  7  47  22  77  1  1    74 

Jason Donald             ss  25  .238  .305  .334  96 383  53  91 18  2  5  42  32 103  5  2    69 

Wes Hodges               3b  25  .247  .295  .349 113 438  41 108 22  1  7  56  28 103  3  2    70 

Cord Phelps#             2b  23  .240  .318  .321 128 517  62 124 24  3  4  53  57 109  8 10    70 

Beau Mills*              1b  23  .239  .283  .355 137 543  52 130 28  1 11  74  31 135  1  2    68 

Tony Graffanino          2b  38  .234  .286  .349  56 209  24  49 13  1  3  25  13  40  1  0    67 

Josh Barfield            2b  27  .251  .280  .343 112 402  43 101 20  1  5  45  15  78  6  3    64 

Carlos Rivero            ss  22  .236  .285  .319 131 501  44 118 23  2  5  58  36 107  1  1    60 

Josh Rodriguez           2b  25  .224  .296  .308  95 370  43  83 13  3  4  34  37  99  6  4    60 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Choo*                                                   Av/69           Av/111  

Sizemore*                                                       Av/66           

Santana#           Fr                                                           

LaPorta                 Fr/187                          Fr/99           Fr/101  

Cabrera#                        Av/71           Fr/117                          

Peralta                                 Av/107  Fr/94                           

Brown*                  Av/136                          Av/80           Av/80   

Brantley*               Av/96                           Vg/78   Av/83           

Marte                   Av/112          Av/112                                  

Valbuena*                       Av/105          Fr/126                          

Weglarz*                                                Fr/160          Fr/160  

McBride            Fr   Fr/128                          Av/44           Av/44   

Marson             Av                                                           

Chisenhall*                             Vg/144  Fr/175                          

Crowe#                                                  Vg/114  Av/127  Vg/114  

Gimenez            Fr   Fr/142          Fr/170          Fr/160          Fr/160  

Toregas            Av                                                           

Head*                   Av/78                           Av/97           Av/97   

Donald                                          Av/127                          

Hodges                  Av/117          Fr/160                                  

Phelps#                         Av/94                                           

Mills*                  Av/120          Pr/132                                  

Graffanino              Vg/120  Av/92   Vg/105  Fr/120                          

Barfield                        Av/120                  Av/120                  

Rivero                                          Av/130                          

Rodriguez                       Av/120          Fr/155                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

ChooShin-Soo       RF   33%   38%   16%    9%    5%     SiebernNorm     WalkerLarry        HayesVon

SizemoreGrady      CF   60%   23%   14%    4%    0%     LankfordRay   BeltranCarlos      EdmondsJim

HafnerTravis       DH    6%   21%   29%   36%    9%    DowningBrian       ClarkWill    MayberryJohn

LaPortaMatt        LF    5%   16%   21%   30%   28%      MenchKevin    CordovaMarty       QuinnMark

SantanaCarlos       C   20%   45%   25%   10%    1%      GuldenBrad TettletonMickey   PorterDarrell

CabreraAsdrubal    SS   23%   31%   31%   12%    3%    RollinsJimmy      YountRobin   RenteriaEdgar

BrantleyMichael    CF    4%   13%   34%   35%   13%    MartinezDave      ReedJeremy    DykstraLenny

PeraltaJhonny      3B    2%   12%   23%   33%   30%    WhitneyPinky      BooneAaron   BuecheleSteve

BrownJordan        LF    1%    6%    9%   21%   63%      WatsonMatt  AndersonGarret       AmelungEd

MarteAndy          3B    1%    4%   15%   35%   45%   CastillaVinny        TatumJim    WoodsonTracy

ValbuenaLuis       2B    1%    3%    9%   26%   60%CatalanottoFrank       OrtizJose     MoutonJames

McBrideMatthew     LF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%    RohrmeierDan     ClarkJerald    WilliamsDana

ChisenhallLonnie   3B    0%    0%    3%   16%   81%     CooperScott        SchuRick      WalkerNeil

WeglarzNick        LF    0%    0%    1%    5%   95%  BrownRoosevelt      BeckerRich     GentileGene

CroweTrevor        CF    1%    1%    5%   22%   71%    SullivanCory   RobersonChris       SternAdam

MarsonLou           C    0%    2%    9%   38%   51%   ThigpenCurtis    GonzalezPete    MooreCharlie

ToregasWyatt        C    0%    1%    5%   29%   66%      ChavezRaul   MachadoRobert       HinchA.J.

GimenezChris        C    0%    2%    7%   28%   63%     WaszgisB.J.     SellersRick     MoellerChad

HeadStephen        RF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%    HammondSteve       MackQuinn    RohrmeierDan

HodgesWes          3B    0%    0%    0%    3%   96%   PenningtonKen       BellDavid    BattleHoward

DonaldJason        SS    1%    2%    7%   23%   67% de la RosaTomas LeMasterJohnnie      CollierLou

GraffaninoTony     2B    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%       SuderPete    EasleyDamion       WoodJason

MillsBeau          1B    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%VelasquezGuiller     LahairBryan     BirrielJose

BarfieldJosh       2B    0%    0%    0%    1%   98%       HudlerRex     LonigroGreg        SojoLuis

RiveroCarlos       SS    0%    0%    0%    5%   95%      CruzFausto      ParisKelly      ReesePokey

RodriguezJoshua    2B    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%        NealMike  ConnacherKevin  RodriguezEdwin

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

ChooShin-Soo          34%     48%     26%     16%      4%      5%      2%      0%

SizemoreGrady         10%     39%     31%     17%      3%     14%     22%      0%

HafnerTravis           8%     32%      8%      5%      0%      0%      1%      0%

LaPortaMatt           10%      8%     10%      2%      0%      0%      1%      0%

SantanaCarlos          3%     17%      7%      3%      1%      0%      2%      0%

CabreraAsdrubal       24%     10%      2%      0%     14%      1%      0%      0%

BrantleyMichael       21%     12%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     67%

PeraltaJhonny          7%      2%      4%      0%      6%      0%      3%      0%

BrownJordan           20%      4%      1%      0%      2%      0%      0%      0%

MarteAndy              4%      0%      2%      1%      0%      0%      1%      0%

ValbuenaLuis           3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

McBrideMatthew         3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ChisenhallLonnie       1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WeglarzNick            0%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CroweTrevor            2%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MarsonLou              2%      7%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ToregasWyatt           3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GimenezChris           1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HeadStephen            2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HodgesWes              1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DonaldJason            2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GraffaninoTony         4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MillsBeau              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BarfieldJosh           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RiveroCarlos           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RodriguezJoshua        0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Justin Masterson          25   4.47   8   8  43  20   139.0  143   69  13   58  102  101 

Jake Westbrook            32   4.70   2   3  10  10    51.2   56   27   6   20   31   96 

Aaron Laffey*             25   4.78   9  11  30  27   156.1  177   83  14   62   79   95 

Scott Lewis*              26   4.96   4   5  16  16    74.1   83   41  11   23   48   91 

Fausto Carmona            26   5.06  10  13  30  30   172.2  189   97  20   74  105   89 

Hector Rondon             22   5.09   9  12  28  27   141.1  161   80  19   47   98   89 

Jeremy Sowers*            27   5.21   8  12  31  30   171.0  198   99  21   60   82   87 

David Huff*               25   5.24   8  11  26  26   135.2  155   79  20   46   81   86 

Anthony Reyes             28   5.29   4   5  19  16    85.0   92   50  12   38   50   85 

Hector Ambriz             26   5.76   7  13  28  27   145.1  175   93  22   62   81   79 

Ryan Edell*               26   5.83   5   9  31  23   129.2  158   84  23   42   80   78 

Michael Tejera*           33   5.91   2   5  21   8    64.0   74   42  11   32   28   77 

Jack Cassel               29   5.94   5  10  23  20   119.2  154   79  16   49   64   76 

Carlos Carrasco           23   5.97   8  15  30  29   161.1  194  107  27   72  107   76 

Zach Jackson*             27   6.19   5  10  35  19   129.1  166   89  20   52   69   73 

Jeanmar Gomez             22   6.28   5  12  27  27   133.1  167   93  22   62   81   72 

Tomo Ohka                 34   6.30   3   6  13  11    65.2   85   46  12   21   31   72 

Kirk Saarloos             31   6.31   4   8  28  15   102.2  132   72  18   41   46   72 

Kelvin de la Cruz*        22   6.44   2   6  12  12    50.1   58   36   7   41   36   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Chris Perez               24   3.92   3   2  69   0    64.1   54   28   8   33   72  116 

Kerry Wood                33   3.93   4   2  52   0    50.1   46   22   5   21   53  115 

Jensen Lewis              26   4.11   4   3  63   0    85.1   79   39  11   36   80  110 

Rafael Perez*             28   4.17   4   4  73   0    77.2   78   36   7   28   68  108 

Tony Sipp*                26   4.18   2   1  47   0    47.1   42   22   6   24   50  108 

Joe Smith                 26   4.20   2   2  60   0    49.1   48   23   5   23   41  108 

Jesse Todd                24   4.54   4   4  68   0    71.1   73   36   8   27   58  100 

Zach Putnam               22   4.61   4   4  40   5    80.0   86   41   7   32   56   98 

Jose Veras                29   4.70   3   4  53   0    53.2   50   28   7   31   48   96 

Rich Rundles*             29   4.94   3   4  52   0    51.0   54   28   5   29   37   92 

Mike Gosling*             29   5.56   4   7  48   5    89.0  104   55  12   42   63   81 

Ken Ray                   35   5.99   3   5  34   7    70.2   83   47  10   38   43   76 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

PerezChris         RP       34%   55%   11%      ValverdeJose    BenitezArmando         SotoMario

WoodKerry          RP       43%   43%   14%       GossageRich         ShueyPaul      LopezAurelio

LewisJensen        RP       27%   60%   13%          DavisRon          LaddPete     WettelandJohn

PerezRafael        RP       24%   58%   18%    HickersonBryan         PlesacDan   AssenmacherPaul

SippTony           RP       34%   46%   21%       OroscoJesse           HallTom      McElroyChuck

SmithJoe           RP       25%   55%   21%          CruzJuan           RyanKen        NelsonJeff

MastersonJustin    SP        9%   63%   28%       NolesDickie       FisherBrian      KepshireKurt

ToddJess           RP       13%   53%   33%       OrvellaChad        ClontzBrad   StricklandScott

PutnamZach         RP       12%   55%   33%         OlinSteve        ResopChris       AcevedoJose

VerasJose          RP       11%   46%   42%   SchiraldiCalvin       HenryDwayne     SchroderChris

WestbrookJake      SP       25%   44%   32%    HernandezLivan        BosioChris       RuthvenDick

LaffeyAaron        SP       16%   58%   26%     AndersonJimmy     ElviraNarciso      ThurmondMark

RundlesRich        RP        7%   41%   52%    LovingierKevin        MohlerMike           GlynnEd

LewisScott         SP       17%   44%   39%      DishmanGlenn        HenryButch   McWilliamsLarry

MillerAdam         SP       24%   35%   40%       NolesDickie        DavisStorm        BoggsTommy

CarmonaFausto      SP        7%   58%   34%          LearyTim   GonzalezEnrique     SeminaraFrank

RondonHector       SP        7%   54%   39%        SuppanJeff        MyersBrett        BakerScott

SowersJeremy       SP        4%   49%   47%        LathamBill        MarothMike      MathesAlfred

HuffDavid          SP        5%   41%   55%      MischPatrick        HenryButch       PriestEddie

ReyesAnthony       SP        5%   39%   56%      ThompsonMark     CorneliusReid      HendersonRod

GoslingMike        RP        0%   18%   82%     FranklinWayne         EyreScott      HolzemerMark

AmbrizHector       SP        0%   19%   80%     RichardsRusty       IrelandEric  ChristiansenClay

EdellRyan          SP        1%   19%   80%        MayDarrell         LeekRandy   LilliquistDerek

CasselJack         SP        1%   17%   83%        MagraneJim         AugustDon       ThurmanMike

CarrascoCarlos     SP        0%   14%   86%        CrouchMatt      NolascoRicky          SmithRoy

RayKen             RP        2%   10%   87%        MahomesPat          WeberBen         BrowerJim

JacksonZach        SP        0%    8%   92%        StultsEric         LucasGary         FlohrAdam

GomezJeanmar       SP        0%    6%   94%        OlsenKevin       CornejoNate       BerneroAdam

OhkaTomo           SP        3%   12%   85%      BaldwinJames      LangfordRick    FernandezJared

SaarloosKirk       SP        1%    8%   90%        RoachJason    FernandezJared           BellRob

de la CruzKelvin   SP        2%   10%   89%        ChergeyDan    HaigwoodDaniel       OvallesJuan

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

PerezChris              34%       81%       95%       0%       49%

WoodKerry               35%       81%       86%       1%       76%

LewisJensen             22%       80%       64%       0%       49%

PerezRafael             19%       73%       43%       2%       79%

SippTony                26%       73%       86%       0%       44%

SmithJoe                25%       66%       27%       1%       65%

MastersonJustin          6%       60%        6%       0%       80%

ToddJess                10%       60%       21%       2%       55%

PutnamZach               9%       55%        3%       1%       84%

VerasJose                8%       50%       44%       0%       45%

WestbrookJake           10%       46%        1%       4%       64%

LaffeyAaron              3%       39%        0%       1%       75%

RundlesRich              4%       33%        5%       0%       76%

LewisScott               3%       31%        1%      14%       29%

MillerAdam               7%       41%        7%       3%       65%

CarmonaFausto            0%       25%        0%       0%       52%

RondonHector             1%       24%        3%       4%       33%

SowersJeremy             0%       15%        0%       2%       41%

HuffDavid                0%       14%        0%       2%       21%

ReyesAnthony             1%       19%        0%       0%       27%

GoslingMike              0%        9%        2%       0%       33%

AmbrizHector             0%        3%        0%       0%       16%

EdellRyan                0%        4%        0%       4%        6%

CasselJack               0%        4%        0%       1%       32%

CarrascoCarlos           0%        2%        1%       0%        9%

RayKen                   2%        9%        4%       0%       32%

JacksonZach              0%        1%        0%       0%       13%

GomezJeanmar             0%        1%        0%       0%       10%

OhkaTomo                 1%        6%        0%      14%       13%

SaarloosKirk             0%        3%        0%       3%       12%

de la CruzKelvin         0%        4%        7%       0%       42%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

CabreraAsdrubal  .277 .347 .404 2172  8099   1252   2242  493  42  151 1161   846   1660 135  51   97

PeraltaJhonny    .262 .328 .418 1562  5923    812   1554  331  24  180  847   561   1453  14  20   95

ChooShin-Soo     .277 .369 .448 1398  5028    802   1395  307  43  155  821   659   1344  95  32  114

SizemoreGrady    .258 .360 .458 2054  8212   1387   2120  446  83  342 1131  1176   1983 238  78  114

HafnerTravis     .269 .374 .489 1239  4345    663   1168  264  13  222  801   675   1020   7   6  127

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

CarmonaFausto      98   121     0  4.92    315    284 1671   1791    179    732   1039     92

WestbrookJake      76    79     0  4.43    252    212 1341   1451    125    440    748    100

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 31, 2009 at 08:20 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. philly Posted: December 31, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3425662)

You have Hafner in the ODDIBE section but his offensive projection seems to be missing.

I don't know why I'm so drawn to the little oddities about the career projections, but I am. Sizemore only getting an extra ~100 career AB over Cabrera and playing fewer games just doesn't seem right. I guess he can be a utility guy, Alex Cora type for a long time but that one seems strange.

2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 31, 2009 at 08:48 PM (#3425665)

At this point, wouldn't it make some sense to see if Kerry Wood can start again, try to up his value, and trade him?

3. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 31, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3425669)

I liked Justin Masterson, but it's kind of sad to see him projected as a team's best starter.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:11 PM (#3425682)

Masterson, Starter: 10-11, 4.66
Masterson, Reliever: 4-3, 3.78

So, he still stays the best starter as full-time starter.

For those wondering, ZiPS is "trained" to look out for pitchers that have obvious role changes (so if a guy that's been 100% starting has most recent year of 100% relieving, for example, ZiPS assumes he's a full-time reliever now). In essence, from quality of pitcher, start/relief use of pitcher, and changes in both, I made a model of predicting future start/relief roles for initial pitcher projections.

My judgment doesn't come in until I'm making a roster and depth chart the last build. Masterson will, barring some unusual situation, have a full-time starter projection come March.

Also, Jason Grilli will be added.

5. a brief article regarding 57i66135 Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:16 PM (#3425686)

would i be the only one who wouldn't at all be surprised if carlos carrasco bests his ZiPS ERA by 2 full runs? i see where the projection comes from, but i think he's a hell of a pitcher, and it's gotta show through at some point.

6. NBarnes Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:23 PM (#3425689)

Man, Shin-Soo Choo really made good, didn't he?

7. Shock has moved on Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:41 PM (#3425697)

Damn, I love Cleveland's outfield.

8. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2009 at 09:42 PM (#3425699)

Random comments:

1. I thought Cabrera was supposed to be a defensive whiz. Sure seemed like he was a couple years ago. Still, very nice comps for him -- and easy to see how a player like that would hold onto a starting job for a long time (i.e. in response to #1).

2. So I should hold off on the Grady for the HoF campaign.

3. An ugly set of comps for Matt LaPorta.

4. I had to look up Brad Gulden -- that must have been one odd career. Lots of injuries? Horrendous defense? (look at his minors numbers or that comment won't make sense)

5. I am surprised that Santana is projected to walk that much. I thought minor-league walk rates weren't supposed to translate very well (from Mike Emeigh maybe? you?). I'll take the under on the walks, at least for his rookie year.

6. Guitar fans hope that Santana and Grant Green (A's) have long careers.

7. The rotation does stink but at least it looks like you get 8 or 9 deep before hitting true disasters. I guess that's assuming health for Carmona and Westbrook though.

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?

Probably some mix of the 3 but is there a rough %age you could give us on each? (and obviously each of those comes with huge caveats about uncertainty.)

9. frannyzoo Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:17 PM (#3425718)

Wow...years of therapy and Jack Z must be working...I'm a M's fan and the Asdrubal C. projection doesn't make me want to throw my beer bottle through the monitor. At least until I look again at the Jack Wilson projection of OPS+ 37 or whatever the Hell it is.

10. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 31, 2009 at 10:49 PM (#3425733)

How's the Choo projection treating you, then? Imagine an outfield of Adam Jones--Franklin Gutierrez--Ichiro, with Shin-Soo Choo at DH, and with Michael Saunders as trade bait. Put Cabrera and J. Lopez in the middle infield, Beltre at 3rd, and Felix/Lee/Tillman/Morrow properly developed, and you start getting the crazies.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 01, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3425759)

8. A serious question which I should have thought of long ago. What use are we supposed to make of a player's comps? As I understand it, they are "recent performance" comps (i.e. the last 3-4 seasons at the same age) not career comps. Do they tell us:

a) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be in 2010;
b) this is the kind of player you can expect this guy to be over the next 3-4 years;
c) this is the kind of career you can expect this guy to have from here on out?

Giving straight percentages on these is an answer I don't even know how to tackle.

When it comes down to it, I'm doing the same thing as one would do when calculating generic playing aging in baseball history. I'm just doing it on the fly with similar players being a bigger part of the model.

Individual comps are most important the nearer the time frame - as the years you project become farther in the future, the aging becomes more generic. Even then, specific individuals aren't really all that important in the model as a whole, even the top few guys.

12. Petunia Posted: January 01, 2010 at 01:30 AM (#3425782)

This is projected to be one tired bullpen. Westbrook and Masterson's IP projections barely get over 5 IP per start. Yikes.

13. Boxkutter Posted: January 01, 2010 at 01:43 AM (#3425789)

Gold Star.... actually, Valbuena could be at 2B instead of Lopez. But then it nullifies the Frankie Gutez trade.

14. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 01, 2010 at 04:18 PM (#3425935)

Valbuena ain't much; rather have Lopez, let alone Gutierrez . . .

15. sportznut Posted: January 01, 2010 at 07:23 PM (#3425994)

I definitely thought Asdrubal would get a better SS rating. I thought that was the whole reason he moved there from 2B, not to mention moving Peralta off of there. I always heard good reports on Cabrera's defense though.

Man, this pitching staff is ROUGH.

16. rlc Posted: January 01, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3426031)

So ZiPS projects Santana to outhit Wieters this year. Is the Eastern League really that much tougher than the International League and the American League?

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 01, 2010 at 11:19 PM (#3426064)

Combined MLB and translations:

Wieters

2008: 291/359/404
2009: 281/339/422

Santana

2008: 260/353/454
2009: 243/343/416

They'd both get better projections if they played other positions - young catchers are very risky.

18. adamadkins Posted: January 01, 2010 at 11:26 PM (#3426068)

Matt Wieters is above projection.

19. a wider scope of derision Posted: January 02, 2010 at 05:26 AM (#3426143)

Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.

20. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 02, 2010 at 06:20 AM (#3426155)

Really, a ZERO percent chance Grady steals 30 bases? That seems broken.

Well, it's not quite zero, just rounded. ZiPS actually says 1-in-229.

Remember, though, those are the odds of him stealing 30 bases at the projected playing time. Not counting reached on error in either case, ZiPS has Sizemore standing on first base 168 times in his projection while that number is 229 for 2007 and 202 in 2008.

With 750 PA, the odds of 30 stolen bases increases to 24%

21. frenchredsox Posted: January 02, 2010 at 03:02 PM (#3426210)

Dan,
seems that Adam Miller's projection got lost (although he is ODDIBE).

Also the Indians picked up ex Padre Luis A. Rodriguez to "play" the Carroll role - any chance of getting his projection added in ? ditto for Saul Rivera.Thanks

22. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 02, 2010 at 03:39 PM (#3426222)

Asdrubal Cabrera's comps - good god.

Two Hall of Very Good shortstops with eight all-star appearances and an MVP between them. And also Robin Yount.

23. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 02, 2010 at 04:17 PM (#3426258)

The rest of Cabrera's top 10 is Marion, Trammell, Bartell, Cordero, Jimenez, Biggio, and Kubek.

24. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 02, 2010 at 04:54 PM (#3426280)

So glad I picked up Asdrubal off the waiver wire for my fantasy team last year :)

25. Saberseams Posted: January 04, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3427015)

I think the answer to this is "yes", but are these OPS+ projections park and league adjusted?

26. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 04, 2010 at 03:00 PM (#3427017)

OPS+ is always a park and league neutral stat, so yes!

27. Ken015 Posted: February 19, 2010 at 03:34 AM (#3463292)

Will Hagadone be projected this season?

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