BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, October 09, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The 2009 edition of the Tigers will sadly be remembered for losing the division in such a dramatic fashion. As bitter a taste as the last week of the season leaves, the team should largely return in 2010, and based on what information we have right now, be the slight favorite in the division.

This could change in the offseason, however, depending on what the Twins do. I don’t think the Sox have enough offense to go into the season higher than 3rd, but the Twins have the new stadium revenues coming in next year and could choose to make a major acquisition in addition to extending Mauer. I’m not sure if they actually will (in fact, I kind of doubt it), but the Twins are an easier team to upgrade than this Tiger team.

It also remains to be seen if the Tigers have the money this offseason to be aggressive - someone like John Lackey would be perfect most offseasons. With Michigan’s economy being hard hit and Detroit in particular in so much trouble that Coinstar machines could start reimbursing customers for their change jars in house deeds, the Tigers very well might go with what they have in ‘10. The team does have some depth in the offense to be able to handle emergencies, but they don’t really have the prospects to make any big trades, so it may be wallet or nothing.

I do have to apologize in advance if I messed up Fu-Te Ni’s name. I do not know if he goes by western convention or not for use of his name, so I don’t really know if he would prefer Fu-Te Ni or Ni Fu-Te.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Miguel Cabrera           1b  27  .305  .376  .536 159 610  91 186 37  1 34 110  68 120  4  2   141 

Magglio Ordonez          rf  36  .300  .364  .459 130 490  63 147 29  2 15  73  50  73  2  2   119 

Carlos Guillen#          lf  34  .276  .355  .464 106 388  57 107 23  4 14  56  47  69  7  4   117 

Curtis Granderson*       cf  29  .257  .333  .465 150 587  94 151 28 11 24  60  65 139 16  4   111 

Ryan Raburn              lf  29  .266  .332  .470 125 349  53  93 19  2 16  51  33  84  8  4   111 

Placido Polanco          2b  34  .292  .338  .398 126 520  72 152 28  3  7  52  30  36  5  2    96 

Aubrey Huff*             1b  33  .260  .323  .431 143 531  68 138 33  2 18  82  49  88  1  3   100 

Marcus Thames            lf  33  .238  .296  .467 102 323  42  77 15  1 19  48  27  92  1  2   100 

Mike Hessman             3b  32  .223  .309  .438 122 448  52 100 20  2 24  61  49 159  3  3    97 

Jeffrey Larish*          1b  27  .236  .322  .380 123 424  47 100 20  1 13  48  51 116  3  3    87 

Ryan Strieby             1b  24  .240  .310  .387 110 421  43 101 19  2 13  52  39 110  1  2    85 

Scott Sizemore           2b  25  .253  .316  .370 105 427  53 108 23  3  7  36  36  82 12  5    83 

Brandon Inge             3b  33  .226  .308  .390 136 461  56 104 18  2 18  61  45 132  4  4    86 

Don Kelly*               cf  30  .262  .319  .354 120 393  50 103 18  3  4  36  30  53 12  4    80 

Alex Avila*              c   23  .239  .309  .372 100 352  36  84 18  1  9  41  36  86  1  1    82 

Ramon Santiago#          ss  30  .257  .318  .374  89 257  32  66 11  2  5  26  18  51  3  3    84 

Clete Thomas*            rf  26  .247  .312  .363 128 482  59 119 23  3  9  45  43 127 25 10    78 

Maxim St. Pierre         c   30  .256  .299  .377  59 207  20  53 10  0  5  24  11  31  0  0    79 

Mike Gosse*              ss  24  .263  .298  .363  75 278  32  73 14  1  4  41  14  34  2  3    76 

Matt Treanor             c   34  .242  .313  .333  39 120  11  29  5  0  2  14  11  25  0  0    74 

Jeff Frazier             dh  27  .260  .293  .355 123 484  46 126 23  1  7  48  22  71  2  3    73 

Gerald Laird             c   30  .235  .298  .346 109 361  44  85 20  1  6  33  28  69  4  1    72 

William Rhymes*          2b  27  .259  .306  .331 121 478  54 124 17  4  3  39  31  70 15  6    71 

Brent Clevlen            rf  26  .224  .287  .362 128 464  50 104 19  3 13  48  38 150  6  2    72 

Casper Wells             rf  25  .222  .293  .370  93 351  38  78 16  3 10  35  27 108  9  7    76 

Michael Hollimon#        3b  28  .220  .290  .354  80 305  37  67 14  3  7  29  29  94  5  3    71 

Maxwell Leon#            lf  26  .244  .301  .323  89 316  34  77 12  2  3  28  25  69  8  3    67 

Wilkin Ramirez           lf  24  .223  .277  .355 129 488  58 109 17  4 13  43  33 164 25  9    67 

Dusty Ryan               c   25  .214  .284  .340  86 294  27  63 11  1  8  32  26 102  1  1    66 

Adam Everett             ss  33  .231  .284  .324  91 281  34  65 15  1  3  35  19  44  4  2    63 

Audy Ciriaco             ss  23  .233  .264  .327 127 480  49 112 18  3  7  45  19 104 10  6    57 

Brent Dlugach            ss  27  .219  .265  .313 103 384  36  84 17  2  5  31  23 120  4  4    54 

Dane Sardinha            c   31  .207  .251  .321  73 237  20  49 10  1  5  23  13  69  1  0    52 

Cale Iorg                ss  24  .204  .251  .297 122 481  46  98 17  2  8  34  26 161 12  8    46 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Cabrera                 Av/106          Pr/132                                  

Ordonez                                                                 Av/85   

Guillen#                Av/122          Pr/121  Pr/131  Av/136                  

Granderson*                                                     Av/100          

Raburn                          Pr/138  Fr/116          Vg/94   Av/94   Av/94   

Polanco                         Vg/55                                           

Huff*                   Fr/84                                                   

Thames                  Fr/166                          Pr/166                  

Hessman                 Av/73           Av/73                                   

Larish*                 Av/88           Pr/105                                  

Strieby                 Vg/113                          Av/113                  

Sizemore                        Av/173                                          

Inge               Av                   Vg/93           Fr/103                  

Kelly*                  Av/101  Fr/101  Av/101  Pr/121  Av/70   Av/70   Av/70   

Avila*             Vg                                                           

Santiago#                       Av/97           Av/97                           

Thomas*                                                 Av/92   Fr/165  Av/92   

St. Pierre         Vg                                                           

Gosse*                                  Av/143  Fr/143                          

Treanor            Fr                                                           

Frazier                                                 Fr/136          Fr/136  

Laird              Vg                                                           

Rhymes*                         Av/121          Fr/145                          

Clevlen                                                 Vg/159  Fr/138  Vg/159  

Wells                                                   Av/117  Fr/216  Av/117  

Hollimon#                       Av/111  Av/124  Fr/136                          

Leon#                   Av/70   Fr/164  Fr/164  Pr/164  Av/70                   

Ramirez                                                 Vg/198                  

Ryan               Av                                                           

Everett                                         Vg/113                          

Ciriaco                                         Av/193                          

Dlugach                                         Av/158                          

Sardinha           Fr   Av/134                                                  

Iorg                                            Vg/139                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

CabreraMiguel      1B   58%   33%    6%    3%    1%     BagwellJeff     ThomasFrank       WatsonBob

OrdonezMagglio     RF   18%   38%   24%   15%    5%     FurilloCarl        KalineAl         SmithAl

GuillenCarlos      LF   20%   26%   21%   20%   12%      GalanAugie     HintonChuck       RainesTim

GrandersonCurtis   CF   39%   27%   22%    9%    3%     MosebyLloyd   van SlykeAndy   BeltranCarlos

RaburnRyan         LF   17%   22%   22%   24%   16%     MartinJerry   AgbayaniBenny       BladesRay

PolancoPlacido     2B   14%   17%   23%   27%   19%      JohnsonDon     RojasCookieGrudzielanekMark

HuffAubrey         1B    1%    7%   12%   36%   44%    MartinezTino  ChamblissChris        AbadAndy

ThamesMarcus       DH    3%    7%   10%   34%   46%    BalboniSteve      DavisGlenn      OliverGene

HessmanMike        3B    6%   13%   15%   26%   41%       HiattPhil       RaderDoug      PalmerDean

SizemoreScott      2B    2%    4%   10%   28%   57%     BensonSteve  GustineFrankie      BurkeChris

LarishJeff         1B    0%    0%    2%   18%   80%       CareyPaul      MinorDamon     WardPreston

KellyDon           CF    2%    4%   14%   36%   45%    MartinezDave      RedmanTike     PrietoChris

SantiagoRamon      SS    1%    7%   28%   40%   25%    MirandaWilly    StockerKevin  GuzmanCristian

StriebyRyan        1B    0%    0%    1%   13%   86%     VitielloJoe    PeoplesDanny      MormanRuss

IngeBrandon        3B    2%    6%    9%   19%   64%  PetrocelliRico      RyanConnie         SmithAl

St. PierreMaxim     C    0%    7%   19%   42%   32%        SmithHal       HillJason      CosteChris

ThomasClete        RF    2%    1%    1%    4%   92%   TuckerMichael    FranconaTito    MackowiakRob

AvilaAlex           C    1%    4%   18%   47%   30%   DerryberryTim    WillardJerry     HelfandEric

GosseMike          SS    1%    2%    9%   30%   57%   ReynoldsCraig       YardBruce   WilsonEnrique

RhymesWilliam      2B    0%    0%    1%    8%   91%       RemyJerry  AndersonMarlon      InglettJoe

TreanorMatt         C    0%    3%    6%   37%   55%     TremieChris       BerresRay McCulloughClyde

FrazierJeff        DH    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%  CastellanoJohn     EylwardMike         BelkTim

LairdGerald         C    0%    2%    9%   31%   58%   HemsleyRollie       SpohrerAl       WilsonDan

ClevlenBrent       RF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%     KrauseScott     BetzsoldJim       VentoMike

WellsCasper        CF    0%    0%    2%   13%   85%       SadlerRay      KellyKenny   HermansenChad

RamirezWilkin      LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%ValderramaCarlos   BrinkleyDante       HillJamar

LeonMaxwell        LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%       ScottTony       ClarkDougValderramaCarlos

HollimonMichael    3B    1%    1%    1%    4%   93%     KuzmicCraig   PerezSantiago     MoronkoJeff

RyanDusty           C    0%    0%    1%   12%   87%    McGriffTerry      PryorBuddy      ChitiHarry

EverettAdam        SS    0%    0%    1%    9%   89%        BoleyJoe       PaganJose    McDonaldJohn

CiriacoAudy        SS    0%    0%    0%    3%   96%    LozadoWillie     CedenoRonny   CastilloRuben

SardinhaDane        C    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%    CharlesFrank     MoellerChad    HundleyRandy

DlugachBrent       SS    0%    0%    0%    1%   98%      MillerMike     ShaddyChris    KlassenDanny

IorgCale           SS    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%    LozadoWillie      BasakChris    KutcherRandy

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

CabreraMiguel         58%     51%     80%     49%     15%      0%     70%      0%

OrdonezMagglio        51%     34%     14%      9%      3%      0%      1%      0%

GuillenCarlos         23%     27%     21%     13%      0%      4%      2%      0%

GrandersonCurtis       6%      7%     21%      8%      3%     48%     22%      1%

RaburnRyan            15%      9%     27%      9%      0%      0%      3%      0%

PolancoPlacido        39%      8%      2%      1%      2%      1%      0%      0%

HuffAubrey             8%      3%      6%      1%      8%      0%      4%      0%

ThamesMarcus           3%      1%     24%      3%      0%      0%      4%      0%

HessmanMike            1%      1%     12%      1%      0%      0%     20%      0%

SizemoreScott          3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LarishJeff             0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

KellyDon               9%      3%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

SantiagoRamon          7%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

StriebyRyan            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

IngeBrandon            1%      1%      3%      1%      0%      0%      4%      0%

St. PierreMaxim       11%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ThomasClete            3%      2%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%     31%

AvilaAlex              1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GosseMike             11%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RhymesWilliam          4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

TreanorMatt            7%      6%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FrazierJeff            4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LairdGerald            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ClevlenBrent           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

WellsCasper            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RamirezWilkin          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%     23%

LeonMaxwell            2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HollimonMichael        1%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RyanDusty              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EverettAdam            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CiriacoAudy            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SardinhaDane           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DlugachBrent           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

IorgCale               0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Justin Verlander          27   3.90  17  10  34  34   219.1  200   95  21   75  217  118 

Edwin Jackson             26   4.28  13  10  34  34   201.2  201   96  25   82  142  107 

Jarrod Washburn*          35   4.59  10   9  28  27   166.2  171   85  24   56   90  100 

Rick Porcello             21   4.89  11  11  29  29   151.0  167   82  21   55   73   95 

Jeremy Bonderman          27   5.12   5   6  21  13    89.2   99   51  13   35   61   90 

Armando Galarraga         28   5.28   9  11  30  28   158.2  166   93  27   74  104   87 

Nate Robertson*           32   5.46   5   7  31  19   117.0  136   71  16   51   77   84 

Eddie Bonine              29   5.48   6   9  25  22   131.1  159   80  20   33   51   84 

Alfredo Figaro            25   5.56   6   8  22  18   100.1  122   62  11   50   55   83 

Jon Kibler*               23   5.58   7  10  26  26   143.2  162   89  18   77   62   82 

Brooks Brown              24   5.73   8  12  26  25   132.0  160   84  14   82   56   80 

Josh Rainwater            25   5.81   5   7  35  12    88.1  105   57  10   54   44   80 

Ruddy Lugo                30   6.04   7  12  34  19   114.2  132   77  18   66   57   76 

Luis Marte                23   6.17   5   9  19  18    97.2  115   67  19   44   54   75 

Dontrelle Willis*         28   6.31   5   9  21  20   102.2  122   72  15   68   59   73 

Ryan Ketchner*            28   6.33   4   7  18  15    81.0  106   57  14   32   43   73 

Duane Below*              24   7.21   3   7  16  16    68.2   87   55  13   58   47   64 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Brandon Lyon              30   3.84   6   4  66   0    70.1   69   30   7   24   46  118 

Bobby Seay*               32   4.06   3   2  64   0    51.0   48   23   5   21   43  111 

Ryan Perry                23   4.42   1   1  64   0    77.1   74   38   9   46   72  104 

Fu Te Ni*                 27   4.50   2   1  61   0    64.0   63   32   9   26   45  102 

Zach Miner                28   4.67   7   6  51   9   108.0  114   56  12   51   66   99 

Fernando Rodney           33   4.71   3   3  56   0    57.1   52   30   7   35   55   99 

Robert Weinhardt          24   4.78   2   2  36   0    49.0   49   26   5   28   38   97 

Clay Rapada*              29   4.80   3   3  53   0    54.1   58   29   5   29   38   97 

Freddy Dolsi              27   4.90   4   4  52   0    60.2   68   33   6   32   31   94 

Joel Zumaya               25   5.06   3   3  33   0    37.1   37   21   5   26   32   91 

Casey Fien                26   5.31   3   3  50   0    61.0   66   36  10   24   46   87 

Cody Satterwhite          23   5.65   3   4  29   0    36.2   39   23   5   26   26   82 

Lester Oliveros           22   5.68   2   3  31   0    44.1   49   28   7   25   31   82 

Zachary Simons            25   5.83   3   5  45   0    63.1   68   41   8   44   41   79 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

LyonBrandon        RP       38%   53%   10%        TerryScott      BradfordChad      ValdezSergio

VerlanderJustin    SP       72%   27%    1%     PascualCamilo    BlackwellEwell      ClemensRoger

SeayBobby          RP       29%   53%   18% ChristiansenJason      McElroyChuck        EmbreeAlan

JacksonEdwin       SP       48%   48%    4%        GrossKevin     MartinezRamon        MillerWade

PerryRyan          RP       16%   57%   27%       BukvichRyan       BruneyBrian       KrawczykRay

NiFu-Te            RP       16%   52%   32%      MarchokChris         GalloMike       BrewerBilly

WashburnJarrod     SP       24%   59%   17%          BlackBud        KnepperBob      FlanaganMike

MinerZach          RP        8%   60%   32%     PufferBrandon        RiveraSaul     BatistaMiguel

RodneyFernando     RP       12%   45%   43%       DeLuciaRich       StoddardTim          FarmerEd

RapadaClay         RP       12%   47%   41%    LovingierKevin           GlynnEd       HamulackTim

WeinhardtRobert    RP       16%   43%   41%          SmithLee        RiveraSaul      SempriniJohn

PorcelloRick       SP       14%   60%   26%         CookAaron       RomanickRon     CrawfordSteve

DolsiFreddy        RP        6%   42%   51%          RyanMatt         GreenSean       GardnerMike

BumpNate           SP       15%   44%   41%     RasmussenEric        MilackiBob      CorpasManuel

ZumayaJoel         RP       12%   38%   50%        VoylesBrad       CammackEric       BruneyBrian

BondermanJeremy    SP       11%   51%   38%     UlloaEnmanuel       ParrisSteve     BankheadScott

GalarragaArmando   SP        3%   46%   51%      JohnsonJason        OrtizRamon         ArmasTony

FienCasey          RP        4%   33%   63%       HoytLa Marr         KohnShawn        VerasDario

BonineEddie        SP        4%   38%   58%        WootenGreg        TowersJosh       SilvaCarlos

RobertsonNate      SP        4%   37%   59%         BoltonTom   McWilliamsLarry      KeislerRandy

FigaroAlfredo      SP        3%   36%   61%     WestbrookJake     McDowellRoger      ChestnutTroy

KiblerJonathan     SP        1%   30%   69%WojciechowskiSteve       FloresRandy       AllenHarold

SatterwhiteCody    RP        3%   22%   75%         BurchMatt        NealBlaine        BarryKevin

OliverosLester     RP        3%   26%   71%        AllenWyatt      SessionsDoug         BurchMatt

BrownBrooks        SP        1%   20%   79%      FulchinoJeff       LaxtonBrett    CocanowerJaime

RainwaterJosh      SP        0%   13%   87%   DelacruzEulogio          AckerJim       BockusRandy

SimonsZachary      RP        0%   15%   84%       MarquezJeff        NealBlaine      ValdezCarlos

LugoRuddy          SP        0%   14%   86%         GlynnRyan   WehrmeisterDave       ManuelBarry

MarteLuis          SP        0%   12%   88%        CrouchMatt  KlingenbeckScott        SnyderJohn

KetchnerRyan       SP        0%   12%   88%     PettyjohnAdam    RheineckerJohn           CyrEric

WillisDontrelle    SP        0%    8%   92%        BirtsasTim        MossDamian       GeorgeChris

BelowDuane         SP        0%    3%   97%         HappJames      PollackChris         AndraJeff

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

LyonBrandon             31%       87%        1%       6%       72%

VerlanderJustin         29%       91%       82%       2%       80%

SeayBobby               29%       76%       35%       1%       83%

JacksonEdwin             9%       75%        2%       0%       34%

PerryRyan               12%       61%       59%       0%       59%

NiFu-Te                 12%       54%        4%       1%       36%

WashburnJarrod           3%       50%        0%       3%       22%

MinerZach                5%       53%        1%       0%       58%

RodneyFernando           9%       50%       70%       0%       52%

RapadaClay               8%       43%        6%       0%       71%

WeinhardtRobert         11%       51%       15%       0%       58%

PorcelloRick             1%       36%        0%       1%       28%

DolsiFreddy              4%       42%        0%       0%       75%

BumpNate                 3%       31%        0%       4%       67%

ZumayaJoel               8%       41%       40%       0%       44%

BondermanJeremy          2%       31%        2%       1%       25%

GalarragaArmando         0%       14%        0%       0%        9%

FienCasey                2%       25%        7%       2%       24%

BonineEddie              0%       14%        0%      29%       21%

RobertsonNate            0%       13%        2%       0%       35%

FigaroAlfredo            0%       12%        0%       0%       63%

KiblerJonathan           0%        6%        0%       0%       38%

SatterwhiteCody          3%       19%        9%       0%       49%

OliverosLester           2%       17%        5%       0%       35%

BrownBrooks              0%        4%        0%       0%       67%

RainwaterJosh            0%        8%        0%       0%       59%

SimonsZachary            0%        9%        1%       0%       47%

LugoRuddy                0%        2%        0%       0%       21%

MarteLuis                0%        3%        0%       0%        5%

KetchnerRyan             0%        2%        0%       1%       13%

WillisDontrelle          0%        1%        0%       0%       21%

BelowDuane               0%        0%        2%       0%       15%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

CabreraMiguel    .295 .367 .508 2794 10656   1556   3148  619  23  535 1821  1170   2186  65  36  130

OrdonezMagglio   .305 .366 .492 2285  8631   1271   2632  529  27  344 1466   819   1129 101  60  122

GrandersonCurtis .254 .329 .450 1761  6829   1083   1737  315 127  256  642   737   1658 165  49  104

GuillenCarlos    .280 .353 .443 1619  5837    907   1636  330  62  165  813   654   1025  96  61  110

PolancoPlacido   .296 .341 .405 2081  8048   1164   2381  410  43  126  818   460    578  94  40   96

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

VerlanderJustin   232   180     0  4.19    518    517 3288   3091    351   1210   3165    109

JacksonEdwin      177   164     0  4.52    531    495 2971   3026    403   1285   2128    101

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Defensive projections consist of a range figure (again, tiered from EX to PO) and an error figure 

(errors as a percentage of league-average, higher is worse)

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 09, 2009 at 04:34 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. J. Michael Neal Posted: October 09, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3346539)

One of the things that's interesting to watch is whether Illitch sets his budget by team, or both together. If his goal is just that his sports empire should break even in down times, the Tigers can afford to lose a lot of money. Owning the Red Wings with a salary cap provides for some nice cash flow.

2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: October 09, 2009 at 06:28 PM (#3346541)

Miggy Cabriggy to the Hally fo' shiggy.

3. Steve M. Posted: October 09, 2009 at 08:51 PM (#3346724)

I'm guessing Porcello obliterates that projection.

4. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3346868)

is ryan raburn really that decent?

5. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3346871)

Miggy Cabriggy to the Hally fo' shiggy.

on the field, i don't think there's any doubt anymore. the guy runs with a stick up his ass, and apparently he's got a bit of a brett myers streak, but dude can hit.

6. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 09, 2009 at 10:58 PM (#3346877)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT       
JacksonEdwin       SP       48%   48%    4% 

considering where jackson's career was three years ago, this is awesome. i like his projected line alot, too. there's gonna be some regression next year, for sure, but i think this ZiPS projection nails it. i wasn't really expecting that.

7. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: October 09, 2009 at 11:00 PM (#3346880)

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+
 Dontrelle Willis*         28   6.31   5   9  21  20   102.2  122   72  15   68   59   73 

easy come, easy go.

i will say that i think willis has one more great season in him. he's too athletic, and he was way too good for him to just completely fall off a table.

8. DCA Posted: October 09, 2009 at 11:07 PM (#3346881)

Willis could always hit. Maybe he gets on the Ankiel/Loewen career path.

9. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: October 10, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3346941)

Can we get a projection for Cabrera's BAC?

10. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 10, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3347111)

Can we get a projection for Cabrera's BAC?

It's right there, .305.

11. jayjay Posted: October 10, 2009 at 03:54 AM (#3347382)

Adam Loewen hit .236/.340/.355 in the Florida State League. Is there room somewhere in there for optimism that he is actually on that career path?

12. lonestarball Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:48 AM (#3349251)

i will say that i think willis has one more great season in him. he's too athletic, and he was way too good for him to just completely fall off a table.

When was he that good? He never had great K rates, always walked too many guys, and his two seasons with quality FIPs were largely the result of unsustainable HR/FB rates.

13. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3349258)

#4: i'm not sure why the error rate for raburn@3b is that low, but - yeah. (his #s benefited this year from heavy platooning, but he's quite useful.)

14. Russlan is not Russian Posted: October 13, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3351293)

When was he that good? He never had great K rates, always walked too many guys, and his two seasons with quality FIPs were largely the result of unsustainable HR/FB rates.

In his first two full seasons, Willis posted a 2.41 bb/9 and a 2.66 k/bb ratio. The walk rate was superb and the k/bb ratio was pretty good.

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2010 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

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