BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 14, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment. It was also later adapted into a short 20th-century opera, but again, the composer escapes me at this moment.

In the story, the protagonist is jailed as part of the Spanish Inquisition. The man had endured every kind of torture that the Inquisitor could throw at him. One night, a man came and told the hero that he was there to help him escape. So, the escape attempt happened and just as the prisoner thinks he’s successfully escaped, the man who came to help him was in fact the Inquisitor and had set the whole scenario up. At that point, the man lost the will to live because to have hope and have it taken away from him was the cruelest punishment of all.

So, what does this have to do with the Florida Marlins? Well, fans of the Marlins are part of a baseball version of this scenario. I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans. Expos fans saw their franchise undermined at every opportunity and razed and then the franchise was gone for good. For fans of the Fish, they get to be abused continually, knowing ahead of time that every success of the franchise will be short-lived and any happiness eventually pulled away from them. And that it will continue, year-after-year, under the current ownership.

The Marlins, given an ownership willing to invest in the team, have a lot of talent. They have a player who may very well be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years. Some decent supporting cast in the offense and some high-upside hitting prospects. Josh Johnson was healthy, throwing 209 innings, and Ricky Nolasco had one of the best 5.06 ERA seasons around. But Marlin fans still have no reason to believe that they’re seeing the start of something rather than the end of something. Even Ramirez’s extremely reasonable 6-year, $70 million contract doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be a Marlin for the rest of the contract. The Marlins continuing to win 85-90 games relies on Beinfest and Hill continuing to spin straw into gold faster than Jeff Loria can give it away, which is a very difficult task.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Hanley Ramirez           ss  26  .320  .393  .537 152 596 115 191 40  4 27  84  67 107 36 11   144 

Nick Johnson*            1b  31  .279  .423  .431  86 290  48  81 18  1  8  42  66  64  2  2   128 

Dan Uggla                2b  30  .246  .342  .462 144 537  89 132 31  2 27  78  73 150  3  2   111 

Chris Coghlan*           lf  25  .287  .358  .413 142 554  83 159 31  6  9  64  56  90 18  6   104 

Cody Ross                cf  29  .262  .322  .473 133 442  58 116 29  2 20  70  33 105  4  1   107 

Gaby Sanchez             1b  26  .272  .346  .416 122 430  61 117 24  1 12  59  46  74  7  4   101 

Jorge Cantu              1b  28  .271  .327  .434 132 502  62 136 32  1 16  76  38  89  2  1   100 

Logan Morrison*          1b  22  .265  .351  .403 108 407  53 108 25  2  9  53  53  83  7  4   100 

John Lindsey             1b  33  .253  .327  .411 127 443  52 112 23  1 15  71  38 105  0  1    94 

John Baker*              c   29  .255  .336  .388 107 353  50  90 21  1  8  45  40  87  1  1    92 

Ronny Paulino            c   29  .258  .322  .390  96 310  36  80 15  1  8  43  29  67  1  1    88 

Jorge Jimenez*           3b  25  .269  .325  .365 121 469  48 126 23  2  6  57  32  70  2  3    83 

Dave Matranga            3b  33  .237  .329  .362  86 257  32  61 10  2  6  25  31  73  4  2    83 

Cameron Maybin           cf  23  .243  .322  .354 132 477  67 116 20  6  7  41  54 141 13  5    79 

Brett Carroll            rf  27  .239  .296  .408 117 309  42  74 16  3 10  39  22  85  2  3    85 

Alfredo Amezaga#         cf  32  .264  .319  .353  96 258  32  68 11  3  2  23  20  39  8  4    78 

Wes Helms                3b  34  .252  .305  .376 121 242  23  61 13  1  5  34  16  61  0  1    79 

Michael Stanton          rf  20  .217  .294  .389 133 511  57 111 22  3 20  66  50 191  2  3    79 

John Raynor              lf  26  .243  .313  .341 119 449  66 109 20  3  6  32  41 134 24  8    73 

Matt Dominguez           3b  20  .236  .298  .358 124 466  49 110 25  1 10  53  38 115  1  0    73 

Bryan Petersen*          lf  24  .250  .314  .351 130 484  61 121 17  4  8  47  44 108 12 10    76 

Jai Miller               rf  25  .220  .297  .362 119 414  47  91 19  2 12  41  43 146  9  4    74 

Andy Gonzalez            ss  28  .228  .317  .319 110 360  38  82 13  1  6  33  45  97  5  3    70 

Scott Cousins*           cf  25  .232  .287  .361 114 435  47 101 22  5  8  49  31 119 15  7    70 

Emilio Bonifacio#        3b  25  .251  .299  .318 138 538  81 135 18  6  2  37  38 119 23 11    64 

Brett Hayes              c   26  .239  .281  .330  99 339  32  81 14  1  5  35  19   8  2  2    62 

Gookie Dawkins           ss  31  .228  .281  .319 106 386  39  88 18  1  5  30  25 104  7  5    59 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Ramirez                                         Av/105                          

Johnson*                Fr/118                                                  

Uggla                           Fr/109                                          

Coghlan*                        Av/148  Av/148          Fr/125                  

Ross                                                    Av/100  Av/74   Av/100  

Sanchez                 Av/96           Pr/143                                  

Cantu                   Av/106  Pr/128  Pr/128                                  

Morrison*               Fr/123                                                  

Lindsey                 Av/104                          Fr/104                  

Baker*             Fr                                                           

Paulino            Av                                                           

Jimenez*                Fr/112          Fr/129                                  

Matranga                        Fr/91   Av/91   Fr/91                           

Maybin                                                  Vg/139  Vg/139  Vg/139  

Carroll                                                 Av/78   Pr/217  Av/78   

Amezaga#                Av/85   Fr/85   Fr/85   Av/85   Av/100  Av/135          

Helms                   Av/145          Fr/106                                  

Stanton                                                 Vg/167  Av/167  Vg/167  

Raynor                                                  Av/130  Av/130  Av/130  

Dominguez                               Av/110                                  

Petersen*                                               Av/144  Av/170  Av/144  

Miller                                                  Vg/161  Vg/161  Vg/161  

Gonzalez                        Fr/120  Fr/120  Fr/120  Av/120  Fr/120  Av/120  

Cousins*                                                Av/151  Av/157  Av/151  

Bonifacio#                      Av/140  Av/125  Fr/136  Av/136  Av/136          

Hayes              Av                                                           

Dawkins                         Vg/94   Av/120  Pr/102                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

RamirezHanley      SS   98%    1%    1%    0%    0%       RipkenCal    TrammellAlan       CroninJoe

JohnsonNick        1B   22%   48%   20%    9%    1%   WeintraubPhil       TolmanTim     GambleOscar

CoghlanChris       LF    5%   20%   23%   29%   24%      GladdenDan     BochteBruce        FordCurt

UgglaDan           2B   42%   22%   17%   13%    6%    JohnsonDavey      PalmerDean   ThompsonRobby

RossCody           CF   24%   25%   31%   17%    4%     LudwickRyan   DevereauxMike     HunterTorii

SanchezGaby        1B    2%   10%   15%   40%   33%        CoxSteve      JohnsonRon      NymanChris

CantuJorge         1B    2%    7%   15%   42%   35% LancellottiRick      SmithBrick   StapletonDave

MorrisonLogan      1B    0%    3%   13%   45%   38%     PerryGerald       BrownMike      LoneyJames

LindseyJohn        1B    0%    5%    8%   28%   59%  MontanezWillie       DropoWalt      MormanRuss

BakerJohn           C    4%   21%   32%   33%   10%     DempseyRick       GibbsJake      BandoChris

PaulinoRonny        C    2%   16%   27%   36%   18%       BrownDick    HundleyRandy     MoellerChad

JimenezJorge       3B    0%    1%    4%   18%   76%       TracyChad       ReeceThadLivingstoneScott

MatrangaDave       3B    0%    2%    6%   24%   67%   BarnesSkeeter      NortonGreg    RoysterJerry

CarrollBrett       RF    0%    1%    1%    5%   92%      BarronTony        CimoMatt     KrauseScott

MaybinCameron      CF    0%    2%   13%   36%   49% ChristensonRyan      JavierStan     McLouthNate

AmezagaAlfredo     CF    1%    1%    5%   25%   68%       MosesJohnMcCrackenQuinton    ThomasDerrel

HelmsWes           3B    0%    0%    2%   13%   84%       BlumGeoff        BergDave   PhillipsBubba

RaynorJohn         LF    0%    0%    0%    3%   96%  FaneyteRikkert         FoxEric       WolfeJoel

StantonMichael     RF    0%    0%    1%    6%   92%      TorresPaul     MurrayGlenn       KellyMike

DominguezMatt      3B    0%    0%    1%    8%   91%  JorgensenTerry     WiggintonTy   CaraballoGary

PetersenBryan      LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%  KoslofskiKevin   GrahamEverett      VazRoberto

MillerJai          RF    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%       GaettiJoe     OrtizJavierEncarnacionMario

CousinsScott       CF    0%    0%    1%   14%   85%      ShelbyJohn    DunwoodyTodd      DeHaanKory

GonzalezAndy       SS    1%    1%    4%   21%   73%     HalterShane        OwenDave      PettiniJoe

BonifacioEmilio    3B    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%  SharpersonMike    GonzalesRene      MarignyRon

HayesBrett          C    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%   PetersonBrian   MillerDarrell       HillJason

DawkinsGookie      SS    0%    0%    0%    4%   96%       BaezKevin HernandezJackie    DeMaestriJoe

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

RamirezHanley         77%     74%     75%     55%     32%      4%     31%     78%

JohnsonNick           28%     95%      8%     20%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CoghlanChris          29%     21%      1%      1%      4%     10%      0%      3%

UgglaDan               3%     11%     22%      7%      5%      0%     34%      0%

RossCody               9%      4%     23%      4%      2%      0%      6%      0%

SanchezGaby           15%     14%      5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CantuJorge            12%      3%      4%      1%      4%      0%      1%      0%

MorrisonLogan          8%     16%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LindseyJohn            5%      4%      2%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%

BakerJohn              5%      7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PaulinoRonny           6%      3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JimenezJorge           8%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MatrangaDave           2%      7%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CarrollBrett           1%      0%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MaybinCameron          1%      2%      0%      0%      0%     13%      0%      0%

AmezagaAlfredo        12%      4%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

HelmsWes               7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RaynorJohn             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     17%

StantonMichael         0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      4%      0%

DominguezMatt          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PetersenBryan          1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

MillerJai              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CousinsScott           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      4%      0%      0%

GonzalezAndy           1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BonifacioEmilio        1%      0%      0%      0%      0%     19%      0%     16%

HayesBrett             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DawkinsGookie          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Josh Johnson              26   3.55   9   5  24  24   147.0  143   58  11   42  130  125 

Ricky Nolasco             27   4.01  14  10  34  34   208.2  207   93  25   47  191  111 

Burke Badenhop            27   4.50   6   6  30  12    94.0  103   47   8   34   59   99 

Henricus van den Hurk     25   4.56   4   4  17  17    81.0   82   41  10   35   75   98 

Anibal Sanchez            26   4.69   4   5  16  16    78.2   83   41   8   38   63   95 

Christopher Volstad       23   4.69  10  11  31  31   172.2  184   90  21   67  114   95 

Andrew Miller*            25   5.28   7  10  33  27   138.0  148   81  16   79  111   84 

Dallas Trahern            24   5.32   4   5  13  13    66.0   74   39   9   30   38   84 

Clay Hensley              30   5.37   4   7  32  18   107.1  123   64  13   56   74   83 

Cristhian Martinez        28   5.40   6   9  28  20   120.0  145   72  17   38   64   82 

Brian Lawrence            34   5.52   5   7  16  15    88.0  111   54  11   25   47   81 

Ryan Tucker               23   5.54   3   5  20  13    74.2   85   46   8   45   48   80 

Sean West*                24   5.76   7  13  29  28   140.2  158   90  22   86  105   77 

Graham Taylor*            26   5.79   6  12  28  27   143.0  174   92  20   65   74   77 

Hayden Penn               25   5.91   3   5  22  14    77.2   91   51  13   40   58   75 

John Koronka*             30   6.06   5   9  24  21   111.1  140   75  16   55   55   73 

Brett Sinkbeil            25   6.38   4   8  34  15    97.1  125   69  15   51   47   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Kiko Calero               35   3.77   3   2  50   0    45.1   39   19   4   24   47  118 

Brendan Donnelly          38   3.82   2   1  37   0    33.0   32   14   3   12   27  116 

Brian Sanches             31   4.15   4   3  53   0    60.2   59   28   7   25   57  107 

Leo Nunez                 26   4.15   5   4  69   0    65.0   61   30   9   24   54  107 

Renyel Pinto*             27   4.15   3   3  72   0    65.0   57   30   7   41   60  107 

Dan Meyer*                28   4.24   3   3  73   0    68.0   64   32   8   33   60  105 

Timothy Wood              27   4.47   3   3  40   0    52.1   54   26   5   25   36   99 

Hunter Jones*             26   4.53   3   2  31   0    47.2   50   24   5   19   35   98 

Taylor Tankersley*        27   4.58   2   2  46   0    37.1   37   19   5   20   33   97 

Gary Glover               33   4.80   3   4  35   0    45.0   48   24   6   15   33   93 

Levale Speigner           29   4.84   4   5  55   0    70.2   80   38   6   28   39   92 

Jose Ceda                 23   5.01   3   3  32  10    64.2   60   36   7   49   59   89 

Christopher Leroux        26   5.03   4   5  54   0    68.0   75   38   7   35   51   88 

Chris Mobley              26   5.06   3   4  53   0    64.0   73   36   7   26   44   88 

Jay Buente                26   5.32   3   4  48   0    67.2   71   40   9   44   57   84 

Kris Harvey               26   5.68   3   6  26   2    44.1   49   28   5   33   28   78 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

JohnsonJosh        SP       83%   17%    0%      PerezPascual         BenesAndy  ChristensonLarry

CaleroKiko         RP       37%   48%   14%     BerenguerJuan       StoddardTim       BorlandToby

DonnellyBrendan    RP       47%   37%   17%         JonesTodd          PowerTed      CampbellBill

NolascoRicky       SP       57%   40%    3%    SandersonScott      ShieldsJames        HarenDanny

SanchesBrian       RP       30%   50%   20%      PolitteCliff       BeckwithJoe      CassidyScott

NunezLeo           RP       25%   53%   22%      ThigpenBobby       HoytLa Marr       MancusoPaul

PintoRenyel        RP       20%   53%   27%    AlmanzaArmando     JordanRicardo         CottsNeal

MeyerDan           RP       18%   58%   24%     JordanRicardo     NitkowskiC.J.       CalhounJeff

WoodTimothy        RP       14%   51%   35%     ShepherdKeith        CatherMike         FioreTony

BadenhopBurke      SP       10%   50%   40%       HodgesKevin       DavidsonBob       SteirerRick

JonesHunter        RP       16%   47%   38%      HorsmanVince       MoloneyBill      WaddellJason

VandenHurkRick     SP       30%   49%   21%      DempsterRyan         SmithPete       FosterKevin

TankersleyTaylor   RP       12%   40%   47%       ParrishJohn       EischenJoey      RosarioDavid

SanchezAnibal      SP       23%   51%   26%       BanksWillie     JenningsJason           WalkBob

VolstadChris       SP       13%   64%   23%        GuzmanJose  ChiamparinoScott     CrawfordSteve

GloverGary         RP       10%   41%   49%         MinorBlas        BrennanTom      MeachamRusty

SpeignerLevale     RP        7%   37%   56%         SmithDave        ComerSteve         RoseScott

CedaJose           SP        5%   32%   63%     StallardTracy       ParmeleeRoy        LangdonTed

LerouxChristopher  RP        4%   32%   64%     ChavezAnthony     SchneiderPaul       DipotoJerry

MobleyChris        RP        4%   35%   61%     HuismanJustin    ChildressRocky    MessengerRandy

MillerAndrew       SP        2%   36%   62%   ClaussenBrandon     MartinezJesus   BurroughsDarren

TrahernDallas      SP        7%   38%   55%           RoweTom          PooleJim      RandallScott

BuenteJay          RP        1%   25%   74%         ShadeMike       McClungSeth      MorenoVictor

HensleyClay        SP        4%   29%   67%     HeathcottMike     DrumrightMike         BenesAlan

MartinezCristhian  SP        4%   31%   65%        TowersJosh      SorensenLary     BorkowskiDave

LawrenceBrian      SP        5%   29%   66%      MoehlerBrian         KesterTim       NagyCharles

TuckerRyan         SP        3%   26%   71%       BoyerBlaine        LumleyMike       TejedaFelix

HarveyKris         RP        2%   17%   81% SlocumbHeathcliff        EyreWillie       McCarthyTom

WestSean           SP        0%   17%   82%        MounceTony        NortonPhil       AldredScott

TaylorGraham       SP        0%   13%   87%       RundlesRich      IsenbergKurt         SnareRyan

PennHayden         SP        1%   15%   84%       KelingKorey  CrucetaFrancisco          GohrGreg

KoronkaJohn        SP        0%    8%   92%     ProchaskaMike          SmithDan      WilliamsMatt

SinkbeilBrett      SP        0%    1%   99%     GryboskiKevin     WhitakerSteve      TuckerJulien

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

JohnsonJosh             44%       96%       42%      15%       91%

CaleroKiko              37%       80%       84%       0%       81%

DonnellyBrendan         36%       76%       27%       9%       88%

NolascoRicky            16%       84%       59%      50%       44%

SanchesBrian            24%       74%       64%       1%       64%

NunezLeo                19%       73%       26%       2%       39%

PintoRenyel             15%       67%       57%       0%       64%

MeyerDan                14%       64%       43%       0%       63%

WoodTimothy             10%       49%        3%       0%       80%

BadenhopBurke            6%       49%        0%       3%       78%

JonesHunter             16%       54%       10%       4%       70%

VandenHurkRick          10%       53%       59%       0%       48%

TankersleyTaylor        12%       43%       45%       0%       49%

SanchezAnibal            6%       46%       21%       0%       70%

VolstadChris             1%       36%        0%       0%       40%

GloverGary              10%       42%        9%      13%       42%

SpeignerLevale           7%       39%        1%       5%       81%

CedaJose                 3%       31%       47%       0%       54%

LerouxChristopher        3%       24%        7%       0%       71%

MobleyChris              2%       26%        2%       1%       59%

MillerAndrew             0%       10%       15%       0%       47%

TrahernDallas            1%       17%        0%       0%       40%

BuenteJay                1%       16%       32%       0%       51%

HensleyClay              1%       11%        8%       1%       50%

MartinezCristhian        1%       11%        0%      13%       27%

LawrenceBrian            1%       13%        1%      22%       51%

TuckerRyan               0%       12%        1%       0%       59%

HarveyKris               1%       14%        2%       0%       66%

WestSean                 0%        3%        5%       0%       17%

TaylorGraham             0%        2%        0%       0%       25%

PennHayden               0%        4%        8%       0%       20%

KoronkaJohn              0%        1%        0%       0%       21%

SinkbeilBrett            0%        0%        0%       0%       23%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

RamirezHanley    .306 .385 .512 2398  9349   1791   2861  578  62  409 1120  1134   1855 508 168  135

UgglaDan         .242 .335 .449 1488  5580    912   1349  306  23  268  780   731   1582  34  31  105

JohnsonNick      .269 .402 .424 1344  4503    711   1209  271  11  136  644   909    998  40  38  119

Player             W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

JohnsonJosh       146    92     0  3.72    401    392 2368   2316    206    751   2081    119

NolascoRicky      154   136     0  4.37    432    402 2407   2455    326    590   2135    101

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Mets
Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 14, 2009 at 04:36 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. xanthan Posted: December 14, 2009 at 04:53 PM (#3411840)

Gookie Dawkins is an amazing name.

I love Porkins' projected OBP. He sure would look nice in the Giants lineup. Also, the Marlins have a couple of nice bullpen pieces (Calero and Donnelly) but they seem especially volatile.

e: Scratch that. Calero threw 60 IP last season, I thought it was half that.

2. JMPH Posted: December 14, 2009 at 04:58 PM (#3411845)

Wow, nice comps for Hanley.

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:00 PM (#3411849)

I should note that there aren't really any great comps for Hanley Ramirez, so ZiPS ages him more generically than usual.

The Marlins have such a thin margin for error, considering ownership never has their back, that they really can't afford any more wacky experiments like making Emilio Bonifacio the starting 3B for 4 months.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3411852)

Wow, nice comps for Hanley.

Can't be that surprised, I'd imagine! 25-year-old shortstop with .900 career OPSs, steal a lot of bases, and hit .320 are pretty darn rare! That Ripken is the number 1 comp shows how darn hard it is to find shortstops that hit that well with speed.

5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:04 PM (#3411858)

I still can't believe they didn't offer Calero arbitration.

What's their projected rotation? Johnson/Nolasco/Sanchez/Volstad/Miller? Where does that leave Badenhop, West, and VandenHurk?

6. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:27 PM (#3411886)

CF Maybin
2B Coghlan
SS Ramirez
3B Cantu
RF Ross
1B Sanchez
C Baker
LF Carroll

C Paulino
1B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez
UT Bonifacio
OF ??? (warm body they'll pick up from other non-tenders)

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Volstad
SP Miller

CL Nunez
RP Pinto
RP Meyer
RP Tankersley
RP Sanches
RP Wood
SW Badenhop

Starting pitching depth will be Badenhop, West, and Vanden Hurk. Possible we'll see Coghlan in left with someone like Kelly Johnson at second. I have to think first base belongs to Sanchez with Jimenez as the backup corner infielder.

EDIT: Sanchez will not be playing third. He did that in college with spectacular results in the College World Series.

7. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3411891)

Initial impression is that the offense will be about the same as last year, as Uggla's lost production will be compensated for by not playing Bonifacio every day and Maybin, hopefully, not cratering at a .180 batting average for the first few months of the season.

Infield defense is still going to be pretty bad. The bullpen will be iffy too, but it always is when you put it together on a shoestring budget. It could be good.

As usual, the difference between this being a 75 win team and a 90 win team is (a) the young pitching staying healthy and progressing and (b) Hanley not getting hurt. A repeat performance of 87 wins is not out of the question, but with a better Mets squad, a strong Braves team, and an improving Nationals team the Marlins will probably fall in the 80-85 range if they don't bring in any offensive firepower or see any big surprises there.

8. Walt Davis Posted: December 14, 2009 at 05:58 PM (#3411916)

Either the Josh Johnson projection is off or the wayback machine could use a tune up. :-) Perez and Benes aren't great but are in the ballpark while Larry Christenson ages 23-25 posted OPS+ of 99, 111 (career high), 85.

9. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:12 PM (#3411936)

Christenson's peripherals those years were better than the ERAs. Their K rates become a lot closer as well when you consider park and era.

10. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 06:27 PM (#3411970)

We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.

-- MWE

11. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:42 PM (#3412111)

12. JPWF13

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:46 PM (#3412114)

Maybin's projection is an "ouch".

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?

13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:47 PM (#3412115)

Rachel Phelps?

14. RJ in TO Posted: December 14, 2009 at 07:56 PM (#3412128)

Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports?

For years, Harold Ballard would have been the obvious answer.

More recently in Hockey, I'd say whoever currently owns the Islanders (Charles Wang?), although Tampa has had an interesting string of owners as well.

15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:01 PM (#3412132)

How bout the Phoenix Coyotes owner: Gary Bettman?

16. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:02 PM (#3412137)

Maybin's projection is an "ouch".

Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

How far from Hanley is ARod as a comp?

Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod. Don't forget that ARod had been a major league regular for six years, and had almost twice as many major league HRs, by the time he was the age that HRam is now.

-- MWE

17. Davo Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:03 PM (#3412139)

Logan Morrison... I'd never heard of him, but in my first 3 OOTP baseball simulations he hits like .370 with power in his rookie year.

So, I guess that means he'll do it in real life.

18. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:08 PM (#3412142)

Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

Al Davis?

Really, I think the other bad owners are incompetent. I think Loria's (greed/desire to make money) is just more obvious than other owners' (greed/desire to make money).

19. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3412144)

Logan Morrison isn't even on the 40-man roster yet, and is coming off a season where he missed significant time due to injury. He's a quality prospect but I expect him to be at AAA to start the season.

-- MWE

20. Swedish Chef Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:11 PM (#3412149)

I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

While Bill Wirtz lived he was far worse than Loria.

21. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:14 PM (#3412153)

We need to wait and see what comes back when Uggla is traded before we try to project what the team looks like on the field in 2010.

The was serious talk of the Fish non-tendering their second biggest offensive asset because he was due to make something approaching his actual value in arbitration. Barring Beinfest and Hill being made of magic--which they may damn well be given their history--they'll get a bullpen arm, an A ball starter with some upside, and maybe a bench player. Probably from the Giants.

22. JPWF13

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:18 PM (#3412157)

Well, he's made no progress in three years; what would you expect?

.277/.375/.456 in AA at age 21
.319/.399/.463 in New Orleans at age 22

an 89 OPS+ through age 22 in 250 MLB PAs

and he projects at 79?
FWIW Chone projects Maybin at .265/.352/.405, Dan's .243/.322/.354 looks REALLY low...

Pretty far. Hanley's probably closer to Jeter than to ARod.

recent SS, ages 23-25:

Rk      Player      OPS+      BA      OBP      SLG      HR      PA      To      From
1     Alex Rodriguez     153     .307     .394     .606     135     1976     1999     2001
2     Hanley Ramirez     145     .325     .398     .549     86     2051     2007     2009
3     Nomar Garciaparra     138     .326     .371     .571     92     1981     1997     1999
4     Derek Jeter     128     .321     .397     .478     53     2181     1997     1999
5     Troy Tulowitzki     114     .283     .359     .490     40     1049     2008     2009
6     Travis Fryman     114     .277     .341     .456     60     1944     1992     1994
7     Jose Reyes     112     .292     .355     .461     47     2231     2006     2008
8     Jhonny Peralta     106     .272     .342     .442     58     1849     2005     2007
9     J.J. Hardy     104     .276     .329     .463     55     1406     2006     2008
10     Khalil Greene     103     .259     .321     .437     32     1100     2003     2005 

perhaps I should have asked why Nomar didn't make it as a comp....

23. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:27 PM (#3412170)

Maybin's gotta cut down on the strikeouts and the loss of power was pretty disturbing. Essentially, when you have a .380-.390 $H in the minors, you should be hitting a lot better than an .850 OPS in the PCL, even in New Orleans. It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

It's not really the worst projection, anyway. If he plays well defensively, he's still a usable regular in center right now, despite the flaws and just 23.

24. John M. Perkins Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3412178)

Two WS makes being a Marlins fan much sweeter than an Expos fan.

25. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 14, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3412199)

Boy, Andrew Miller didn't really turn out the way anybody planned, did he?

26. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:26 PM (#3412300)

Does Loria even have any real competition for worst owner in sports? I know Donald Sterling is pretty bad, and there might be some bad owners in hockey I don't know about, but does anyone really even compare?

The current clown show running the Tampa Bay Lightning is probably worse. Keep in mind that they signed Dan Boyle to a 6-year, $40 million contract, making him one of the highest paid defensemen in hockey, with a full no-trade clause, and then forcing him to accept a trade out of town before he had played a single game under that contract, and that that probably isn't their worst personnel decision in the last two years. It may not even be in the top three; hiring Barry Melrose to be the coach and then firing him after 17 games is probably at the top of the list. They are hopelessly under financed, horrible at PR, and have no idea what they are doing.

At least Loria has a plan: he's intent on sucking every dollar out of someone else's pockets that isn't glued in, while paying out as few of them as he can. He's also very good at it. It isn't clear that Len Barrie and Owen Koules are any good at anything other than making torture porn movies.

27. TomH Posted: December 14, 2009 at 09:36 PM (#3412330)

I would argue that Marlin fans have been treated even more cruelly than Expos fans

Are you KIDDING me? The Florida Marlins, who have barely had two decent years in their hisotry, and never a GREAT team, but own two WS trophies? THOSE Marlins!? The fans of the Marlins are possibly the luckiest fans/team ever in terms of recent actual versus deserved success on the diamond. The quoted statement is just nuts.

28. JPWF13

Posted: December 14, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3412495)

The Zephyrs hit just .261/.333/.399, (and why on earth did they keep that name when they moved to New Orleans...)
and that isn't just because NO sucked (which they did) the park factors I've seen suggest you can ignore the fact that they play in the PCL.

29. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 12:02 AM (#3412562)

The 2003 team, once Willis and Cabrera came on board, was the best team in baseball that year. They were great once they made promotions and jettisoned the flotsam.

The 1997 team was just pretty good. But they won one less game than the Phillies did this season and no one was going to accuse these Phillies of being shams.

And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.

30. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:08 AM (#3412865)

And I deserve a World Series trophy EVERY ####### YEAR.

Who do you think you are, a Yankee fan?

The Marlins signed Scott Strickland to a minor league. I had no idea he was still pitching.

31. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 15, 2009 at 04:17 AM (#3412879)

When you're a Fish you're a Fish all the way.

32. tropicofcancer Posted: December 16, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3414843)

Baker projection is whack

33. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 22, 2009 at 06:38 AM (#3419316)

Just wanted to point out that according to "Seaquest DSV" (from 1993), the Marlins are supposed to win the World Series this year.

34. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 22, 2009 at 06:52 AM (#3419317)

I accept your offer, Aaron Hill. Congrats to the Fish from the Future.

35. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 22, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3419416)

It all depends on what kind of fan the Marlins fan is. Sentimental, or freakonomical?

It doesn't help that the Marlins play in the biggest strikeout park in the majors nearly every year (Maybin projects as an OPS+ of 82-89 in every other park in the NL).

There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?

36. Mister High Standards Posted: December 22, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3419438)

There are strikeout parks? How so? Does it have to do with the size of the foul territory, or the sun shining in the batter's eyes, or something?

backdrop.

37. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 22, 2009 at 10:53 PM (#3420305)

As Matt notes, backdrop is a big part. Foul territory is important as well - foul outs don't just replace hits and in-play outs, they replace strikeouts as well and conversely, parks with small foul territory increase both hits and strikeouts (foul territory in general is a very underappreciated component of park factor).

38. Greg Pope Posted: December 28, 2009 at 01:17 AM (#3422985)

Some years ago, I reach a translation of a French short story, the author and name of which eludes me at this moment

I'm guessing it's The Torture of Hope by Auguste Villiers de l'Isle-Adam.

EDIT: The linke pasted from Wikipedia doesn't seem to work for the author. I think there's a special character in there.

39. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 08:08 PM (#3454220)

Update!

CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

C Paulino
1B/3B Helms
3B/1B Jimenez*
UT Bonifacio#
OF Carroll

SP Johnson
SP Nolasco
SP Sanchez
SP Miller*
SP Volstad

SP Vandenhurk
SP West*
SP Trahern

CL Nunez
RP Pinto*
RP Badenhop
RP Sanches
RP Meyer*
RP Wood
RP McClung

I like this team.

40. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2010 at 08:24 PM (#3454237)

CF Maybin
LF Coghlan*
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla
3B Cantu
1B Sanchez
RF Ross
C Baker*

Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters? Might be a good year for Baker and Coghlan because they shouldn't ever see a lefty that isn't really good.

41. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:14 PM (#3454287)

Are you worried they don't have enough left handed batters?

I've often thought that this concern is overblown. If I remember correctly, the 2003 team that won the championship had 6 straight righties in the lineup after Pierre and Castillo. It didn't stop them from beating some very good right handed pitching in the playoffs, as just about any good hitter fares pretty well against RHP. The greater concern would be stacking left handed batters who struggle against LHP together in a lineup.

42. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 04, 2010 at 09:18 PM (#3454289)

I agree, DLGM. Low budget teams can't afford to mess around with things like "Good lefty off the bench."

I believe righties have a universal 8% platoon advantage against lefties, so yeah, the variance isn't huge. Lefties, on the other hand, have a widely varied platoon split that averages out to around 20% better against righties. So platoon if you can, but if you can't, just put the best player in there and hope for the best.

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2010 ZiPS Projections - Florida Marlins

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