BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 12, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals

What can you say about the Royals?

The people who rightly criticize the Royals for not taking into account any advances in baseball thought in the last 30 years are actually missing the main problem with the Royals. It’s simply that they don’t seem to utilize any kind of rational thought process at all.

Teams can still be plenty successful without having a front office full of statnerds. Traits like creativity and a clear outline of short and long-term goals can be found in non-stat front offices. The Royals do not possess those traits.

One could write a doctoral thesis on the management bloopers of the Royals, but the primary problems of the Royals can be distilled quite well from just two transations. Namely, the use of Bloomquist in rightfield and the Betancourt trade.
In both situations, the Royals showed no ability to adjust to unexpected situations.

In the former, the Royals, a team going nowhere, couldn’t find anything better to do than give 105 starts to a pretty generic utility player in his 30s. The idea that they couldn’t find anyone to get that playing time is absurd. Take a look at Garrett Jones in Pittsburgh. He’s unlikely to be some superstar going forward or anything, but the Pirates found a player who might actually have a bit of value over the next 6 years, something that never would have happened if they decided to bring in Juan Castro or something.

In the case of Betancourt, the team once again panicked when a problem arose and having no idea what to fix it or even apply a tourniquet, they randomly throw prospects for a player that nobody wanted. If only the Royals spent as much time analyzing players as they did carpet-bombing the press with ridiculous quotes about Betancourt’s ability and having their feelings hurt by mean ol’ Rany Jazayerli, perhaps the franchise wouldn’t look like an expansion team in a league with a horribly unfair expansion draft.

A lot of people like to point out the Royals as an example of injustice in baseball’s finances, but the Royals being where they are seems to be completely fair to me. Should Rick Bayless or Wylie Dufresne be forced to pay a percentage of their revenues to an 4-year-old in Peoria feeding Play-Doh spaghetti to his parents?

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Billy Butler             1b  24  .293  .355  .475 160 600  76 176 39  2 22  90  58  97  1  0   116 

David DeJesus*           lf  30  .285  .357  .435 138 540  80 154 28  7 13  68  52  83  7  7   107 

Alberto Callaspo#        2b  27  .290  .345  .416 122 435  58 126 24  5  7  49  38  40  2  2    99 

Kila Kaaihue             1b  25  .255  .350  .403 133 471  63 120 23  1 15  58  68  95  1  1    98 

Alex Gordon*             3b  26  .248  .333  .415 114 419  58 104 24  2 14  51  47 112  9  2    95 

Jose Guillen             rf  34  .265  .322  .431 105 392  46 104 21  1 14  62  24  74  2  0    96 

Mark Teahen*             3b  28  .265  .328  .420 142 528  70 140 29  4 15  56  46 130  8  2    95 

Brayan Pena#             c   28  .281  .328  .413  95 310  34  87 18  1  7  34  20  34  4  4    93 

Mike Jacobs*             dh  29  .242  .301  .441 126 438  49 106 22  1 21  62  36 117  1  0    92 

Coco Crisp#              cf  30  .257  .328  .382  93 327  46  84 15  4  6  29  35  55 18  4    86 

Ryan Shealy              1b  30  .249  .320  .391  78 289  30  72 14  0  9  38  27  75  0  0    86 

Scott Thorman*           1b  28  .256  .300  .432 117 398  40 102 20  1 16  48  21  85  5  2    89 

J.R. House               c   30  .269  .316  .391 124 476  54 128 26  1 10  53  32  66  1  2    85 

Mike Aviles              ss  29  .275  .306  .403 100 397  51 109 21  3  8  42  18  58  6  2    85 

Tug Hulett*              2b  27  .253  .324  .380 118 439  61 111 23  3  9  42  46 100 10  4    85 

Mitch Maier*             cf  28  .268  .323  .378 130 447  57 120 22  3  7  43  35  83  9  4    84 

Jordan Parraz            rf  25  .263  .332  .374 100 388  49 102 21  2  6  42  31  78 12  9    85 

Willie Bloomquist        rf  32  .271  .326  .361  97 277  40  75 10  3  3  19  22  49 15  5    81 

John Buck                c   29  .227  .297  .412  95 308  34  70 16  1 13  44  27  87  0  1    84 

Brian Buchanan           dh  36  .255  .300  .389  42 149  16  38  8  0  4  22   9  32  2  0    80 

Miguel Olivo             c   31  .242  .276  .435 105 372  39  90 17  2 17  50  14 110  4  2    83 

Josh Anderson*           lf  27  .269  .311  .352 138 472  64 127 19  4  4  37  24  70 30  7    74 

Johnny Giavotella        2b  22  .259  .316  .367 112 433  71 112 23  3  6  41  36  58 14  9    79 

Yuniesky Betancourt*     ss  28  .271  .297  .390 144 513  57 139 29  4  8  51  20  45  5  4    79 

Tim Raines Jr.#          cf  30  .254  .290  .381 103 362  49  92 16  3  8  39  18  76 17  3    75 

Cody Clark               c   28  .253  .301  .385  59 182  20  46 10  1  4  20  10  35  1  1    79 

John Suomi*              c   29  .256  .305  .374  66 219  25  56 12  1  4  23  14  38  0  2    78 

Mike Moustakas*          3b  21  .250  .290  .390 133 525  61 131 28  2 14  69  28 107  7  7    77 

Joseph Dickerson*        lf  23  .261  .319  .351  77 291  31  76 13  2  3  29  21  56 12  9    76 

Irving Falu#             ss  27  .271  .318  .334 118 458  56 124 17  3  2  36  32  46 11  8    72 

Chris Lubanski*          lf  25  .233  .288  .362  88 326  37  76 15  3  7  32  26  88  5  3    70 

Jeffrey Howell           c   27  .245  .290  .337  76 261  23  64 13  1  3  27  15  56  1  3    65 

Jose Duarte              cf  25  .244  .298  .319 128 492  62 120 19  3  4  39  37 105 19 10    63 

Eric Hosmer*             1b  20  .222  .289  .325 111 415  36  92 19  3  6  54  39 115  2  2    61 

Tommy Murphy#            cf  30  .236  .295  .326  99 356  41  84 16  2  4  21  28  88 16  8    63 

Luis Hernandez#          ss  26  .258  .292  .322 108 357  37  92 15  1  2  30  17  50  4  4    62 

Jeff Bianchi             ss  23  .239  .275  .336 119 464  54 111 23  2  6  48  23 115 12  5    60 

Mario Lisson             ss  26  .231  .278  .331 132 498  52 115 24  1  8  51  28 127 17  8    60 

Cory Aldridge*           rf  31  .242  .249  .393  91 331  31  80 16  2 10  39   2  94  2  3    80 

Derrick Robinson#        cf  22  .233  .274  .304 127 527  66 123 20  4  3  37  28 115 43 19    52 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Butler                  Fr/148                                                  

DeJesus*                                                Ex/33   Fr/91   Av/91   

Callaspo#                       Fr/120  Av/120  Fr/120                          

Kaaihue                 Av/168                                                  

Gordon*                 Av/113          Av/113                                  

Guillen                                                 Pr/80           Pr/154  

Teahen*                 Av/107          Fr/107          Fr/99           Fr/99   

Pena#              Av   Av/120                          Fr/120          Fr/120  

Jacobs*                 Pr/191                                                  

Crisp#                                                          Vg/85           

Shealy                  Av/83                                                   

Thorman*                Vg/140          Pr/168          Av/164          Av/164  

House              Pr   Av/75                                                   

Aviles                          Vg/119  Vg/145  Vg/102                          

Hulett*                         Vg/120          Av/74                           

Maier*                                                  Vg/67   Av/85   Vg/67   

Parraz                                                  Av/169  Pr/150  Av/169  

Bloomquist              Av/70   Av/70   Av/70   Av/70   Vg/70   Fr/100  Vg/70   

Buck               Fr                                                           

Buchanan                                                Pr/85           Pr/85   

Olivo              Av                                                           

Anderson*               Av/210                          Vg/136  Fr/146  Vg/168  

Giavotella                      Av/149                                          

Betancourt*                                     Pr/116                          

Raines#                                                 Av/132  Fr/132  Av/132  

Clark              Fr                                                           

Suomi*             Av                                   Fr/130                  

Moustakas*                              Av/118                                  

Dickerson*                                              Fr/160  Pr/94   Fr/82   

Falu#                           Av/69   Av/69   Av/154  Av/80   Fr/80           

Lubanski*                                               Av/134                  

Howell             Av                                                           

Duarte                                                  Vg/116  Vg/116  Vg/116  

Hosmer*                 Av/111                                                  

Murphy#                                                 Vg/117  Av/117  Vg/117  

Hernandez#                      Av/99           Av/99                           

Bianchi                         Av/81           Fr/97                           

Lisson                  Vg/93           Vg/93   Fr/93                           

Aldridge*                                               Fr/90           Fr/136  

Robinson#                                                       Vg/175          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

ButlerBilly        1B    9%   29%   29%   27%    6%     KonerkoPaul        IvieMike     JoynerWally

DeJesusDavid       LF    8%   19%   19%   24%   30%      MooreJo-Jo    MitchellDale     WalkerDixie

CallaspoAlberto    2B   16%   22%   25%   23%   13%   IzturisMaicer     FuentesTito   HudsonOrlando

GuillenJose        RF    1%    9%   14%   27%   48%     JordanBrian     SierraRuben      MillerBing

TeahenMark         3B    3%   14%   23%   32%   28%      HinskeEric      LyonsSteve     KoskieCorey

GordonAlex         3B    4%   12%   29%   35%   20%      HinskeEric     KoskieCorey       CastoKory

Ka’aihueKila       1B    1%    5%   11%   39%   45%     SuttonLarry      JohnsonDan        AbadAndy

PenaBrayan          C    5%   26%   30%   28%   11%        SmithHal   EstradaJohnny    MooreCharlie

CrispCoco          CF    4%    9%   29%   39%   19%     PrietoChris     BrownAdrian    ThomasDerrel

JacobsMike         DH    0%    2%    6%   29%   63%        CruzIvan      LieferJeff LancellottiRick

ThormanScott       LF    1%    5%    6%   15%   73%        BrownDee  CepickyMatthew      OglivieBen

AvilesMike         SS    4%   12%   33%   33%   17%    GarciaCarlos       MearesPat       PaganJose

BloomquistWillie   RF    0%    2%    4%   15%   79%         FoxPete   BautistaDanny   GipsonCharles

MaierMitch         CF    2%    3%   13%   33%   50%  HeathcoteCliff   SchumakerSkip      SimpsonJoe

HulettTug          2B    3%    6%   13%   32%   46%     ClappStubby       MartinStu    FontenotMike

ShealyRyan         DH    0%    1%    2%   17%   80%      SchallGene FreireAlejandro     VitielloJoe

HouseJ.R.           C    1%   10%   21%   41%   27%        SmithHal       WilsonDan        HallToby

AndersonJosh       LF    0%    1%    2%    9%   89%   RobinsonKerry    DiloneMiguel      GoodwinTom

BuchananBrian      DH    0%    2%    2%   11%   85%       DropoWalt  HitchcockBilly      KennedyBob

ParrazJordan       RF    1%    1%    1%    5%   92%      MateoRuben       BrownEmil      OrtegaBill

RainesTim          CF    1%    3%   12%   33%   51%       ScottTony    TorresAndresMcCrackenQuinton

OlivoMiguel         C    4%   11%   22%   37%   27%        HeganJim       HeathMike    BerryCharlie

BetancourtYuniesk  SS    2%    5%   17%   31%   45%   DiSarcinaGary       BailorBob      WilsonJack

BuckJohn            C    1%   11%   22%   40%   27%     YeagerSteve     WidgerChris    KarkoviceRon

GiavotellaJohnny   2B    0%    1%    4%   19%   75%    BabittShooty       RivasLuis       GomezRudy

ClarkCody           C    0%    2%   12%   46%   39%       HornerJim    JohnsonBrian    FordyceBrook

AldridgeCory       RF    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%     RiosArmando       MooreGene      HowittDann

SuomiJohn           C    0%    4%   10%   34%   52%      GuldenBrad       MyersGreg     TaylorSammy

MoustakasMike      3B    0%    0%    1%    8%   90%     HodgesScott     CooperScott    MosesMatthew

DickersonJoseph    LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%    BrickellFred       AlmadaMel      ColesCorey

FaluIrving         2B    0%    0%    1%    7%   92%      MilesAaron  JohnsonWallace      MaciasJose

LubanskiChris      LF    0%    0%    1%    1%   98%     HamiltonJon     O’LearyTroy     RigsbyRandy

MurphyTommy        CF    0%    0%    1%    3%   96%       ScottTonyMcCrackenQuinton   BudzinskiMark

DuarteJose         CF    0%    0%    1%    1%   98%     HallmarkPat      DurhamChad     ShanksJames

BianchiJeffrey     SS    0%    0%    1%    7%   92%    CosmeCaonabo    KutcherRandy        HallBill

HernandezLuis      SS    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%   DeLaCruzChris   SandovalDanny       BritoLuis

HowellJeffrey       C    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%    DifeliceMike    MillerDamian      DempseyPat

LissonMario        SS    0%    1%    2%    6%   91%    GonzalezAlex      BannonJeff     ChavezAngel

HosmerEric         1B    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%  IshikawaTravis      FrymanTroy    BurfordKevin

RobinsonDerrick    CF    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%      JamesKennyPendergrassTyron  VictorinoShane

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

ButlerBilly           37%     19%     22%      7%     25%      0%     11%      0%

DeJesusDavid          32%     25%     10%      4%      4%     28%      1%      0%

CallaspoAlberto       37%     15%      2%      0%      0%      5%      0%      0%

GuillenJose           10%      3%      6%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

TeahenMark             9%      4%      4%      0%      1%      3%      1%      0%

GordonAlex             2%      5%      3%      1%      1%      0%      1%      0%

Ka’aihueKila           4%     15%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PenaBrayan            29%      6%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CrispCoco              7%      5%      1%      0%      0%      2%      0%      1%

JacobsMike             1%      0%      6%      0%      0%      0%      5%      0%

ThormanScott           5%      1%      7%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%

AvilesMike            18%      1%      2%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

BloomquistWillie      17%      6%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MaierMitch            12%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HulettTug              3%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ShealyRyan             4%      3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HouseJ.R.             10%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AndersonJosh          10%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%     56%

BuchananBrian         12%      3%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ParrazJordan           8%      7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RainesTim              5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%

OlivoMiguel            1%      0%      8%      1%      0%      0%      2%      0%

BetancourtYuniesk     15%      0%      1%      0%      3%      3%      0%      0%

BuckJohn               1%      0%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GiavotellaJohnny       4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

ClarkCody              9%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AldridgeCory           2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SuomiJohn             10%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MoustakasMike          1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DickersonJoseph        8%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FaluIrving            12%      1%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

LubanskiChris          1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MurphyTommy            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%

DuarteJose             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      3%

BianchiJeffrey         0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HernandezLuis          5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HowellJeffrey          3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LissonMario            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%

HosmerEric             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RobinsonDerrick        0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%     98%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Zack Greinke              26   3.11  16   9  34  34   226.0  205   78  18   54  228  142 

Gil Meche                 31   4.67   9  13  30  30   181.0  188   94  20   67  136   94 

Michael Montgomery*       20   5.09   4   7  22  22    99.0  110   56   6   54   57   86 

Kyle Davies               26   5.25   8  15  32  32   166.1  179   97  22   79  111   84 

Lenny Dinardo*            30   5.32   6  10  31  21   130.1  161   77  11   49   69   83 

Brian Bannister           29   5.49   7  14  27  27   155.2  175   95  23   50   85   80 

Dusty Hughes*             28   5.51   3   6  35  14   101.1  116   62  11   52   60   80 

Daniel Duffy*             21   5.63   4   9  22  22   100.2  114   63  12   51   64   78 

Luke Hochevar             26   5.69   7  15  31  30   172.1  196  109  22   55  110   77 

Bruce Chen*               33   5.70   3   6  27  14    94.2  110   60  17   36   63   77 

Sidney Ponson             33   5.87   3   8  21  18   102.2  130   67  12   39   47   75 

Brandon Duckworth         34   5.88   4   9  25  17   104.0  120   68  15   45   52   75 

Rowdy Hardy*              27   5.92   4  11  25  21   124.2  164   82  15   37   48   74 

Michael O’Connor*         29   6.03   3   8  21  17    88.0  108   59  17   29   43   73 

Anthony Lerew             27   6.25   3   8  19  18    90.2  113   63  14   49   44   70 

Matt Wright               28   6.27   3   8  20  16    94.2  117   66  17   38   44   70 

Heath Phillips*           28   6.31   4  11  34  20   127.0  167   89  19   55   61   70 

Blake Wood                24   6.39   3  10  22  20   100.0  121   71  15   48   53   69 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Joakim Soria              26   3.03   4   2  58   0    62.1   48   21   6   19   72  147 

Juan Cruz                 31   4.58   3   4  52   0    53.0   49   27   6   30   52   95 

Kyle Farnsworth           34   4.62   2   3  54   0    50.2   54   26   7   20   45   95 

Doug Waechter             29   4.96   2   3  33   1    45.1   53   25   6   14   23   88 

Jamey Wright              35   4.98   4   6  67   0    77.2   81   43   8   38   55   88 

John Bale*                36   4.99   1   2  38   5    39.2   45   22   4   16   29   88 

Rob Tejeda                28   5.03   4   6  37  11    87.2   77   49   9   55   84   86 

Tim Hamulack*             33   5.08   1   2  27   0    39.0   44   22   5   14   24   86 

Henry Barrera             24   5.09   0   1  20   0    23.0   24   13   2   16   20   86 

Victor Marte              29   5.09   3   5  48   0    70.2   75   40   5   38   42   86 

Carlos Rosa               25   5.10   3   5  54   0    65.1   72   37   7   29   45   85 

Roman Colon               30   5.47   3   6  40   3    74.0   86   45  10   29   40   80 

Yasuhiko Yabuta           37   5.62   2   5  41   0    57.2   66   36   7   27   40   78 

Christopher Nicoll        26   6.30   2   7  34   6    74.1   88   52  13   37   47   70 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

SoriaJoakim        RP       80%   19%    1%  PapelbonJonathan      OsunaAntonio           NenRobb

GreinkeZack        SP       97%    3%    0%      BlylevenBert      ClemensRoger         SeaverTom

CruzJuan           RP        9%   45%   47%       HenryDwayne      LaCorteFrank      WilliamsMike

FarnsworthKyle     RP        9%   46%   46%       WorrellTodd         PlunkEric       ParrettJeff

MecheGil           SP       13%   60%   27%          LearyTim        GuzmanJuan       ParrisSteve

TejedaRobinson     RP        3%   38%   59%         LidgeBrad   SchiraldiCalvin     WilliamsFrank

WrightJamey        RP        2%   28%   70%         HenryDoug          MecirJim          BairDoug

WaechterDoug       RP        7%   34%   59%   WinchesterScott        GreerKenny    PattersonDanny

RosaCarlos         RP        3%   30%   68%    HendersonScott      HuismannMark        BatemanJoe

HamulackTim        RP        9%   31%   60%       ShouseBrian      MagnanteMike      CormierRheal

BaleJohn           RP        7%   27%   66%        GroomBuddy      CormierRheal        EmbreeAlan

MarteVictor        RP        2%   28%   71%         LugoRuddy         FioreTony      RiedlingJohn

MontgomeryMichael  SP        7%   42%   51%      HancockChris        BirtsasTim        MillerMike

BarreraHenry       RP       18%   30%   52%       KimballNewt     RaymondClaude     CastilloBobby

DaviesKyle         SP        3%   37%   61%     PattersonJohn         RiveraBen      HendersonRod

DiNardoLenny       SP        4%   31%   66%         ZerbeChad       MerckerKent         KarlScott

BannisterBrian     SP        1%   23%   76%    DriskillTravis    HernandezManny       BoydOil Can

RandolphSteve      RP        2%   17%   81%       DeLuciaRich      CharltonNorm      MillerTrever

ColonRoman         RP        0%   15%   85%           SoffRay      SchmackBrian          WellsBob

HughesDusty        SP        0%   11%   89%    BarzillaPhilip        ClarkBryan       FasseroJeff

DuffyDaniel        SP        1%   23%   76%        DownsScott   ClaussenBrandon      JacksonDanny

YabutaYasuhiko     RP        1%   12%   87%         JonesTodd      ServiceScott        ClarkTerry

HochevarLuke       SP        0%   13%   87% DuchschererJustin          RupeRyan       PineiroJoel

ChenBruce          SP        2%   15%   83%       BarnesBrian      SwindellGreg        CurtisJohn

DuckworthBrandon   SP        1%   11%   88%     CastilloFrank       LazorkoJack       DeSilvaJohn

PonsonSidney       SP        1%   13%   86%        AhearnePat      MoehlerBrian      JohnsonJason

HardyRowdy         SP        1%   12%   88%       PriestEddie       GassnerDave    RheineckerJohn

O’ConnorMike       SP        1%   12%   87%       WalkerJamie         LeekRandy      IlsleyBlaise

LerewAnthony       SP        0%    6%   94%     CrawfordSteve       TaylorKerry   BullingtonBryan

WrightMatt         SP        0%    5%   95%    GothreauxJared  RodriguezRicardo      RandallScott

NicollChristopher  RP        0%    3%   97%       PalkiJeromy      SessionsDoug     TroutmanKeith

PhillipsHeath      SP        0%    3%   97%     MusselmanJeff      McConnellSam         UrbanJeff

WoodBlake          SP        0%    4%   96%          KnoxBrad       HensleyClay     ReynoldsShane

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

SoriaJoakim             74%       98%       98%      14%       81%

GreinkeZack             74%       99%       84%      34%       92%

CruzJuan                 9%       46%       72%       0%       61%

FarnsworthKyle           9%       38%       50%       2%       47%

MecheGil                 2%       36%        5%       0%       58%

TejedaRobinson           2%       30%       70%       0%       75%

WrightJamey              2%       25%        3%       0%       74%

WaechterDoug             7%       33%        0%      21%       51%

RosaCarlos               2%       26%        2%       0%       61%

HamulackTim              6%       32%        2%      14%       44%

BaleJohn                 4%       26%        9%       5%       64%

MarteVictor              1%       19%        0%       0%       95%

MontgomeryMichael        1%       17%        0%       0%       96%

BarreraHenry            11%       37%       38%       0%       79%

DaviesKyle               0%       12%        1%       0%       37%

DiNardoLenny             0%       11%        0%       3%       79%

BannisterBrian           0%        5%        0%       3%       17%

RandolphSteve            1%       14%       60%       0%       34%

ColonRoman               0%        9%        0%       1%       34%

HughesDusty              0%        6%        1%       0%       59%

DuffyDaniel              0%        6%        0%       0%       46%

YabutaYasuhiko           1%       10%        4%       0%       45%

HochevarLuke             0%        2%        0%       2%       31%

ChenBruce                0%        5%        3%       2%       16%

DuckworthBrandon         0%        3%        0%       0%       32%

PonsonSidney             0%        3%        0%       2%       47%

HardyRowdy               0%        2%        0%      14%       47%

O'ConnorMike             0%        3%        0%       7%       10%

LerewAnthony             0%        1%        0%       0%       21%

WrightMatt               0%        1%        0%       1%       12%

NicollChristopher        0%        1%        0%       0%       14%

PhillipsHeath            0%        0%        0%       0%       20%

WoodBlake                0%        1%        0%       0%       22%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS  OPS+

ButlerBilly      .281 .346 .451 2026  7527    924   2117  469  22  256 1081   748   1229  11   5  108

GuillenJose      .269 .321 .438 1719  6178    786   1664  324  24  223  935   338   1147  35  26   98

JacobsMike       .248 .308 .456  951  3302    398    819  183  10  161  501   280    852   9   2   98

GordonAlex       .244 .328 .402 1173  4287    573   1044  242  19  133  498   473   1112  92  22   91

DeJesusDavid     .281 .352 .422 1409  5444    803   1528  286  72  113  649   510    837  73  71  103

CrispCoco        .267 .328 .393 1298  4744    689   1269  239  49   86  464   431    733 218  69   89

BetancourtYunies .270 .295 .385 1221  4342    488   1172  244  38   60  421   160    395  42  39   79

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

GreinkeZack       235   171     4  3.56    706    537 3626   3466    362    955   3444    124

MecheGil          132   142     0  4.61    396    392 2304   2360    275    915   1707     96

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:54 AM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:15 AM (#3349467)

The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.

Corey Koskie and Kory Casto on Gordon's comps -- c'mon, you rigged that. :-) (I'd never actually heard of Casto)

2. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:11 AM (#3349480)

having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career

3. JPWF13

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:11 PM (#3349596)

(I'd never actually heard of Casto)

Shame on you

AAAA 3B/DH, a few years ago two guys in my Roto league actually fought over him- thinking he'd be a big deal...

Hit .290/.394/.510 in the Carolina League one year, .272/.379/.468 in the Eastern League...

4. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 02:19 PM (#3349599)

The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist. This is just sad all over.
It's a shame that Buck O'Neil passed on.

having Larry Sutton as a comp is probably not gonna help Kila Kaaihue's career
I had forgotten about Sutton. I always thought of him as the 90s Tommy Hutton but on lookup, I insult the mediocre Hutton by equating him with Sutton.

5. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:00 PM (#3349643)

I like Hulett (the in-house youneverknow MI infield option the Royals should have used instead of getting YB) - but am not sure why your estimates of his range are that rosy. Minor quibble.

6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3349654)

Looking at that roster just makes me sad. It's like it's written in the blood of dead puppies.

7. Dr. Vaux Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:22 PM (#3349672)

How would you tell it was from puppies?

Homeless people, Dan. People.

8. Mike Emeigh

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:30 PM (#3349683)

Bannister and Oil Can Boyd as comps? Obviously basic intelligence wasn't a factor :)

I'm sure the Royals are hoping that Duffy turns into Danny Jackson, but I suspect he'll be more like the other two comps.

-- MWE

9. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 12, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3349696)

I know the list of three comps doesn't really mean all that much... but Greinke's list is really, really nice.

10. Hack Wilson Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:03 PM (#3349739)

The burning issue is the comp for PenaBrayan is Hal Smith, but which Hal Smith?

BTW one was a World Series, the other not, but other than that completely interchangeable.

11. JPWF13

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:12 PM (#3349754)

So Dayton Moore has been GM for 3+ years...
This will be his 4th off-season...

So if in 2010 the Royals go 67-95. does he stay? (5 year extension sez yes)...

The Moore era Royals look a lot like the DL lead Pirates to me.

If Greinke hadn't gone all Koufax this team would have lost 100.

12. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 04:15 PM (#3349757)

Who knew that Brandon Duckworth was older than Sidney Ponson and Bruce Chen?

13. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3349980)

Now that I notice it, that Greinke career projection seems a bit optimistic. To project a guy to throw more innings than Mussina? Granted, he's got a 210 IP lead through age 25. (This is not to question that Greinke has a good chance to be as good as Mussina or better, it's just the injury risk, etc. makes me think that's an optimistic mean projection.)

Back to Bloomquist and the homeless ... That seems to have been who was on KC's AAA roster. Look at that list. After DeJesus, Guillen and the injured Crisp, the next OF listed is Mitch Maier (to whom the Royals did give reasonable playing time). They also gave time to Josh Anderson after they picked him up. Anyway, after Maier you get a guy named Jordan Parraz then Bloomquist. Parraz seems to have been hurt for part of the year (I don't know which part) but did tear up AA. ZiPS defensive chart suggests the Royals could have trotted Pena or Thorman out in RF before Bloomquist.

I come not to defend the notion of Bloomquist in RF which is clearly counter to everything that is right and holy. Just pointing out how putrid this roster is that it has neither some kid who might have been worth a shot nor a Garrett Jones type anywhere to be found.

14. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:01 PM (#3349983)

Are the players supposed to be in order by OPS+? Because they're not. Especially with Cory Aldridge's 80 OPS+ all the way at the bottom, below all the numbers in the 60s.

15. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:15 PM (#3350000)

The sad thing is, by ZiPS, they really didn't have anything better than Bloomquist.

They absolutely should have taken a flyer on Jordan Parraz in right field. Yeah, he was hurt a bit, out for some time in June, then missed all of August, but who's to say whether he gets hurt if he's with the major league team instead of AA and AAA?

Dan, why are you projecting Ponson when he was given his outright release in July after he refused AAA assignment?

16. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3350009)

Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.
Ponson: What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...

17. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 07:59 PM (#3350060)

What team should he be projected with? 'Cause he's likely to end up somewhere...

The Japan Whatevers.

18. It's Spelled With a CFBF, But Not Where You Think Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:05 PM (#3350067)

Bill Simmons once labeled David Lee, playing for an awful and unsightly Knicks' team, "a rose growing in ####." I think that pretty much sums up Zack Greinke's situation right now.

19. geonose Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3350086)

Players are listed with their most recent teams

Duh. Guess I could read better, huh?

20. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:25 PM (#3350092)

Four players with OPS+ or ERA+ over 100. Four.

Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?

21. JPWF13

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3350113)

Is this a record for ZiPS? Hell, is this a record for any projection system?

I'd hope so

22. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2009 at 08:53 PM (#3350121)

With the Royals need for a right fielder and Moore's Braves connection, I know just the guy they should be trying to acquire.

23. user Posted: October 12, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3350184)

Crispix on Aldridge: Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 (see above)... Cory's is brought down by that terrible OBP.

Which I will boldly predict has a typo somewhere along the line, since 2 walks is a completely implausible projection and his slashline doesn't actuually appear to equal an 80 ops+ (compared with betancourt and moustakas ) which it would with a sensible number of walks.

24. JPWF13

Posted: October 12, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3350201)

Dan, I'm A Mets fan, and even as a Mets fan I have to say that #26 is... evil, pure evil.

edit: Though I do think that at least trying to shoplift Gordon is something the Mutts should be doing.

25. aberg Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:57 AM (#3350541)

First of all, it's funny that Blyleven is Greinke's top comp, then his career line looks like a "he should be in the HOF but the record doesn't get it done" standard for 25 years from now. Who knows, maybe 235 will look better by then.

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.

26. rombuu Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:22 AM (#3350562)

Wouldn't the Royals kill to get a 96+ OPS out of Guillen next year?

27. David Ogren Posted: October 13, 2009 at 02:40 AM (#3350572)

How much of a role does past ERA play in the pitching projections? I ask because of Hochevar... he's dramatically underperformed his components for two years running, and it looks like ZiPS sees more of the same. I'm surprised that the bad situational performance isn't being more heavily regressed.

28. Rally Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:08 PM (#3350740)

Healthy feral cats are better options in a corner outfield spot than Willie Bloomquist - I don't think many have ".332 career slugging percentage" on their resumés.

This is true. I found one in my backyard and he's given me a .407 SLG in APBA.

29. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 13, 2009 at 01:19 PM (#3350751)

Well, at least the projections for Johnny Giovatella and Mike Montgomery look nice.

Gil Meche is about to become an albatross, isn't he?

Also, why is Mark Teahen a Royal? I know they have made some dumb decisions, but the longer he's on the roster, the more wasteful it becomes in terms of $$ and opportunity.

Dayton cannot let a player go unless he feels like he gets awesome value for him. Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players. He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

This is also why Jose Guillen will never ever be released and why Mike Jacobs will probably be tendered a contract.

30. Charles Kinbote Posted: October 14, 2009 at 03:44 AM (#3351466)

I'm in favor of feeding Wylie Dufresne through a Play-Doh Fun Factory, on the spaghetti setting or any other, for what it's worth.

31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 14, 2009 at 02:44 PM (#3351710)

"Supposedly he shopped Teahen around last winter and when the only offers were for guys like Mike Fontenot and Ben Francisco, he said no. I've read rumors he asks for way too much for his own players."

Another thing he has in common with Littlefield.

32. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame) Posted: October 18, 2009 at 05:45 AM (#3356534)

What a stark preview. Nobody projected to hit .300, nobody projected to get on base higher than .360, nobody expected to slug .500 in any amount of playing time. Not only is there but one really good player (Greinke, of course, although I guess Soria should count for something) there's not anyone else above average. The worst of it is there isn't really anyone you can even bet on to be average.

In a best case scenario, they still can't aspire to mediocrity.

33. stealfirstbase Posted: October 19, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3358012)

He seems to have a serious delusion about the value of players on the market if he gives up Dan Cortes AND Derrick Saito for a shortstop many thought would be DFAed.

I've often thought the same thing about Kenny Williams. The difference is that Kenny Williams identifies the talent he wants and goes and gets it, be it Jake Peavy, Carlos Quentin, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Nick Swisher, etc. I suppose outbidding the market works when you're getting good talent in return for prospects.

Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.

34. JPWF13

Posted: October 19, 2009 at 07:53 PM (#3358030)

Moore's problem isn't that he gave up talent for Betancourt, it's that he acquired Betancourt at all.

I remember when Moore's predecessor acquired the Neifinator, and someone wrote that it was "evidence that he was actively blowing the talent evaluation aspect of his job"

Remember when Moore came in, and everyone assumed he'd be an improvement, he was "well regarded" and came from the Braves' system? Then he wildly overpaid for Gil Meche (or so it seemed)
and then Meche pulled a 128 ERA+ out of his ass* (and followed up with a 107).
And people said hey, he knows his stuff, he can see what is not readily apparent....

Meche is just one data point
Betancourt is another...

I think that Moore does seem to have some ability at identifying/evaluating pitchers, however, for an MLB GM he appears to be horrifyingly incompetent at identifyin/evaluating hitters/position players.

IOW, he may have a positive role to play fro an MLB organization, but not as a GM.

* Improvement in his peripherals in 2007 was limited to walk rate and homer rate, and they were not "huge" improvements. I don't have it handy but I suspect his "strand rate" was pretty high. He pitched better in 2007 than he had before but I think a 128 ERA+ overstated that improvement...

35. Travolta19 Posted: October 22, 2009 at 02:09 AM (#3361694)

Hey Dan, why no projection for David Lough? He's certainly more advanced (and better) than some of the guys listed, Derrick Robinson in particular.

Thanks,
Jim

36. BobbyS Posted: November 14, 2009 at 12:29 AM (#3387505)

What about Shane Costa? Is he coming back...is it possible to get a projection for him?

37. guyute Posted: February 11, 2010 at 05:27 PM (#3458695)

Hey Dan, now that there is rumbling that Farnsworth will be given a crack at the starting rotation, will he get a SP rating?

38. Broncmet Posted: February 25, 2010 at 01:23 PM (#3467852)

Hey Dan, is there a projection floating out there for Rick Ankiel, I didn't see your normal projection with a signing article for him

Thanks for the work,
Rick

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