BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 21, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

Outside of the need for additional catching depth, another solid reliever or two, and somehow eliminating the amplitude of the frustrating sine wave that is Brad Lidge’s career, the Phillies should remain a solid team in 2010, though this isn’t exactly going out on a limb considering the World Series appearances.

The farm system is a bit on the weak side at this point as the Phils cashed in quite a few prospects, but the front-line talent on the major-league squad is strong enough to buy the system enough time to recover. The only pressing concern is keeping Lee long-term, a must after he conclusively demonstrated that 2008 was no fluke season. It’s pretty amazing to have reached that point in 2 years; in the 2008 ZiPS, which pegged Lee at a very average 11-10, 4.63, the general consensus was that ZiPS was being extremely charitable.

Philly’s not invincible, but an awful lot would have to go wrong for the team to not be the favorite in the division in 2010

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Chase Utley*             2b  31  .301  .398  .528 146 564 111 170 36  4 28  99  71 105 16  1   137 

Ryan Howard*             1b  30  .273  .367  .572 153 582 102 159 30  3 46 145  85 193  3  1   137 

Raul Ibanez*             lf  38  .289  .357  .531 120 463  76 134 31  3 25  92  48  90  2  1   125 

Jayson Werth             rf  31  .272  .369  .495 127 426  74 116 19  2 24  75  63 119 13  2   121 

Shane Victorino#         cf  29  .290  .355  .442 144 541  92 157 30  8 12  57  47  69 26  8   104 

Ben Francisco            lf  28  .274  .342  .471 131 467  63 128 31  2 19  53  43  93 13  5   107 

Michael Taylor           lf  24  .284  .343  .456 127 489  62 139 28  4 16  73  40  96 14  7   104 

Andy Tracy*              1b  36  .251  .342  .452 117 418  64 105 22  1 20  80  56  99  4  1   103 

Jimmy Rollins#           ss  31  .274  .329  .448 143 614 100 168 37  8 18  73  49  69 36  6    98 

Matt Stairs*             rf  42  .249  .356  .429 104 189  25  47  8  1  8  29  28  47  0  0   102 

Greg Dobbs*              3b  31  .283  .329  .447 116 237  32  67 13  1  8  38  17  43  3  1    98 

Mike Cervenak            3b  33  .282  .315  .420 111 436  57 123 26  2 10  63  18  57  2  1    87 

Carlos Ruiz              c   31  .251  .341  .391 110 338  40  85 21  1  8  46  43  44  3  2    89 

Terry Tiffee#            3b  31  .283  .317  .408  87 343  36  97 20  1  7  44  17  42  0  1    85 

Jeremy Slayden*          rf  27  .262  .325  .398 110 397  46 104 22  1 10  52  34 102  2  2    86 

Dominic Brown*           rf  22  .257  .325  .388 113 448  59 115 21  4 10  53  44 102 16  8    83 

John Mayberry Jr.        rf  26  .240  .299  .421 131 458  51 110 26  3 17  55  34 126  8  2    83 

Rich Thompson*           cf  31  .258  .325  .363 108 380  57  98 19  6  3  36  32  70 17  4    78 

David Newhan*            2b  36  .257  .311  .393  93 272  34  70 13  3  6  35  21  56  4  2    80 

Mike Spidale             lf  28  .280  .319  .360 112 403  55 113 15  4  3  34  18  51 16  5    75 

Pedro Feliz              3b  35  .258  .300  .397 134 481  55 124 24  2 13  69  30  67  0  1    78 

Jorge Velandia           ss  35  .257  .310  .357  67 241  26  62 10  1  4  20  17  54  3  1    72 

J.J. Furmaniak           2b  30  .249  .307  .365 119 405  52 101 19  2  8  46  30  88 10  5    73 

Miguel Cairo             ss  36  .257  .308  .349  90 241  33  62 12  2  2  24  15  34  7  1    69 

Joel Naughton*           c   23  .252  .300  .356  87 298  32  75 14  1  5  34  22  58  1  0    69 

Jason Ellison            cf  32  .250  .320  .333 117 360  46  90 16  1  4  28  33  67 10  5    69 

Kevin Nelson             c   29  .239  .302  .388  44 134  13  32  6  1  4  16  12  36  0  1    77 

Carlos Leon#             2b  30  .253  .331  .327  74 217  28  55  8  1  2  16  20  37  2  3    71 

Eric Bruntlett           2b  32  .236  .313  .312 102 199  31  47 10  1  1  19  20  37  7  2    62 

Paul Hoover              c   34  .230  .293  .332  64 217  21  50 11  1  3  23  19  60  1  1    61 

Paul Bako*               c   38  .218  .287  .318  59 170  16  37  6  1  3  18  16  51  0  1    56 

Brad Harman              2b  24  .203  .258  .305 125 469  43  95 21  3  7  43  34 157  1  2    45 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Utley*                          Vg/101                                          

Howard*                 Fr/136                                                  

Ibanez*                                                 Fr/101                  

Werth                                                   Av/80   Fr/209  Vg/80   

Victorino#                                                      Av/70   Vg/85   

Francisco                                               Av/88   Pr/101  Av/102  

Taylor                                                  Av/128          Fr/146  

Tracy*                  Av/97                                                   

Rollins#                                        Vg/72                           

Stairs*                 Av/163                          Pr/86           Pr/86   

Dobbs*                  Av/121          Fr/95           Fr/121          Fr/121  

Cervenak                Av/99           Fr/123          Fr/99           Fr/99   

Ruiz               Fr                                                           

Tiffee#                 Av/103          Fr/103          Fr/103                  

Slayden*                                                Av/119          Av/119  

Brown*                                                  Vg/207  Av/165  Vg/207  

Mayberry                                                Av/88           Av/77   

Thompson*                                               Vg/104  Vg/104  Vg/104  

Newhan*                 Fr/145  Fr/125  Pr/145          Fr/145          Fr/145  

Spidale                                                 Vg/97   Fr/44   Vg/97   

Feliz                                   Vg/83                                   

Velandia                        Vg/61   Av/109  Av/109                          

Furmaniak                       Av/122  Av/100  Fr/90   Av/122                  

Cairo                   Av/100  Av/85   Fr/105  Pr/105  Av/105          Av/105  

Naughton*          Fr                                                           

Ellison                                                 Av/86   Av/82   Av/86   

Nelson             Fr                                                           

Leon#                           Av/88   Av/88   Fr/118                          

Bruntlett                       Vg/100  Vg/100  Av/116  Av/100  Av/50   Av/100  

Hoover             Av                                                           

Bako*              Fr                                                           

Harman                          Av/119  Av/119  Av/119                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

UtleyChase         2B   94%    4%    1%    0%    1%GehringerCharlie     WhitakerLou    SandbergRyne

HowardRyan         1B   44%   35%   13%    6%    2%      GentileJim        YorkRudy       HodgesGil

IbanezRaul         LF   32%   36%   17%   11%    4%   WilliamsBilly      ParkerDave     HooperHarry

WerthJayson        RF   33%   38%   17%    9%    3%      HisleLarry      WhitenMark     DyeJermaine

VictorinoShane     CF   24%   30%   32%   13%    2%      McRaeBrian         LawRudy  GrissomMarquis

FranciscoBen       LF   10%   22%   24%   26%   18%    WaltonReggie     RepulskiRip       SmithMark

RollinsJimmy       SS   43%   26%   21%    7%    2%   FernandezTony       LugoJulio  CabreraOrlando

TaylorMichael      LF    4%   14%   23%   32%   26%    WhiteRondell     CarreonMark    HollidayMatt

TracyAndy          1B    4%   12%   17%   36%   31%   McQuinnGeorge   BurnitzJeromy    MartinezTino

DobbsGreg          3B    4%   18%   31%   32%   16%    WallingDenny      LyonsSteve    HatfieldFred

StairsMatt         RF    2%   18%   19%   26%   36%       SauerHank       FairlyRon      SmithBobby

CervenakMike       3B    2%    6%   13%   26%   53%   PhillipsBubba       CoomerRon   ChristmanMark

TiffeeTerry        3B    1%    4%    9%   24%   62%       ShortRick        DuganJoe       NelsonBry

RuizCarlos          C    4%   20%   28%   33%   16%       OlsonGreg     DempseyRick      SewellLuke

SlaydenJeremy      RF    0%    2%    3%   10%   86%        BrownDee     JonesJacque       DeedsDoug

BrownDominic       RF    0%    1%    3%   11%   86%      ReidJessie       AllenLuke       SafferJon

MayberryJohn       RF    0%    0%    2%   11%   86%      MoutonLyle        DunnTodd     WoodsTyrone

ThompsonRich       CF    1%    3%   13%   35%   47%  PodsednikScott     RobertsDave    MurrayCalvin

SpidaleMike        LF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%  RamseyFernando     BuccheriJim       RomanoTom

NewhanDavid        2B    1%    3%    7%   22%   68%      AliceaLuis    SandbergRyne   ReynoldsCraig

FelizPedro         3B    0%    1%    6%   18%   75%   CastillaVinny      WallachTim   PhillipsBubba

CairoMiguel        SS    0%    1%   12%   37%   50%   FletcherScott   DunstonShawon   WashingtonRon

VelandiaJorge      SS    0%    1%    6%   28%   65%   WashingtonRon     BransonJeff   HernandezJose

FurmaniakJ.J.      2B    1%    2%    4%   12%   81%     MiksisEddie    JavierJulian      MelilloSki

NelsonKevin         C    0%    2%    5%   33%   61%       DavisDoug     HughesBobby     MoellerChad

NaughtonJoel        C    0%    0%    1%   20%   78%      PeveyMarty     MerulloMatt        JasoJohn

EllisonJason       CF    0%    1%    2%    7%   90%     McNeelyEarl        BusbyJim     LewisDarren

LeonCarlos         SS    0%    0%    3%   16%   81%   DelgadoWilson    CaceresEdgar       RiggsEric

BruntlettEric      2B    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%   HairstonJerry   MurtaughDanny    PankovitsJim

HooverPaul          C    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%    DifeliceMike  SantiagoBenito McCulloughClyde

BakoPaul            C    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%    DifeliceMike        HeganJim      BordersPat

HarmanBrad         2B    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%   ScarsoneSteve     ThissenGreg       CotaCarlo

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

UtleyChase            50%     74%     69%     40%     17%      2%     38%      1%

HowardRyan            12%     36%     85%     38%      5%      1%     94%      0%

IbanezRaul            33%     22%     68%     18%      3%      2%     21%      0%

WerthJayson           18%     42%     36%     16%      0%      0%     23%      0%

VictorinoShane        34%     19%      7%      2%      2%     33%      0%     36%

FranciscoBen          16%     12%     23%      5%      3%      0%      7%      0%

RollinsJimmy          13%      5%     17%      2%     17%     88%      6%     78%

TaylorMichael         25%     13%     10%      3%      1%      2%      1%      0%

TracyAndy              7%     12%     24%      3%      0%      0%      7%      0%

DobbsGreg             28%      9%     14%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

StairsMatt            10%     34%     11%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CervenakMike          28%      3%      4%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

TiffeeTerry           27%      3%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RuizCarlos             3%     13%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SlaydenJeremy          7%      2%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BrownDominic           3%      2%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

MayberryJohn           0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ThompsonRich           5%      3%      0%      0%      0%     21%      0%      2%

SpidaleMike           21%      1%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      1%

NewhanDavid            9%      2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FelizPedro             5%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

CairoMiguel           10%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VelandiaJorge          9%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FurmaniakJ.J.          5%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NelsonKevin            6%      5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NaughtonJoel           4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EllisonJason           3%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LeonCarlos            10%      8%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BruntlettEric          2%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HooverPaul             1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BakoPaul               1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HarmanBrad             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Cliff Lee*                31   3.23  17   7  33  32   217.1  205   78  18   45  189  138 

Cole Hamels*              26   3.70  14   8  33  33   209.0  201   86  26   45  184  121 

Joe Blanton               29   4.06  12   9  32  32   206.0  208   93  25   54  154  110 

J.A. Happ*                27   4.44   8   7  32  25   154.0  150   76  23   64  122  100 

Pedro Martinez            38   4.50   4   4  13  13    66.0   71   33   9   19   55   99 

Brett Myers               29   4.56   7   7  33  18   118.1  119   60  20   40  105   98 

Antonio Bastardo*         24   4.65   5   5  20  15    81.1   80   42  12   35   71   96 

Rodrigo Lopez             34   4.82   7   8  23  21   127.0  142   68  17   34   81   93 

Kyle Kendrick             25   4.89  10  12  33  30   173.0  200   94  21   52   74   91 

Jamie Moyer*              47   4.94  10  13  30  28   173.0  191   95  27   54  106   90 

Kyle Drabek               22   5.03   4   5  16  15    87.2   92   49  12   40   61   89 

Michael Stutes            23   5.06   6   8  22  22   110.1  115   62  15   58   73   88 

Brian Mazone*             33   5.10   5   6  20  14    83.0   94   47  14   23   48   88 

Vance Worley              22   5.38   6   8  23  23   118.2  135   71  18   43   65   83 

Andrew Carpenter          25   5.87   7  13  28  25   151.2  182   99  28   61   90   76 

Drew Naylor               24   5.91   7  12  27  26   150.2  178   99  28   61   90   75 

Gustavo Chacin*           29   6.10   3   6  15  14    72.1   89   49  13   30   35   73 

Joe Savery*               24   6.10   7  14  28  27   143.0  174   97  19   89   81   73 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Ryan Madson               29   3.64   5   3  72   0    76.2   72   31   8   24   69  123 

J.C. Romero*              34   3.92   2   1  52   0    39.0   33   17   4   25   33  114 

Tyler Walker              34   3.94   4   3  49   0    48.0   45   21   6   16   41  113 

Chad Durbin               32   4.21   3   2  64   0    77.0   72   36   8   40   65  106 

Clay Condrey              34   4.23   4   3  46   0    55.1   59   26   5   18   31  106 

Brad Lidge                33   4.29   3   3  68   0    65.0   61   31   8   33   76  104 

Scott Eyre*               38   4.33   2   2  44   0    35.1   35   17   4   17   30  103 

Mike Zagurski*            27   4.46   1   1  33   1    34.1   32   17   4   18   34  100 

Sergio Escalona*          25   4.87   3   4  55   1    68.1   70   37   8   36   56   92 

Jack Taschner*            32   4.93   2   2  54   0    49.1   52   27   5   27   40   91 

Chan Ho Park              37   4.97   4   5  42  10    96.0  104   53  14   35   76   90 

Steven Register           27   5.09   3   4  60   0    63.2   71   36   9   25   40   88 

Gary Majewski             30   5.12   2   3  59   0    65.0   75   37   8   25   40   87 

John Ennis                30   5.25   2   3  27   2    48.0   54   28   7   20   39   85 

Steve Green               32   5.40   1   2  25   1    38.1   40   23   5   26   31   83 

Jason Anderson            31   5.51   2   4  47   0    63.2   75   39   9   27   39   81 

Jake Woods*               28   5.77   3   5  42   8    92.0  108   59  15   41   56   77 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO      TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

LeeCliff           SP       96%    3%    1%        SmileyJohn          OjedaBob        ViolaFrank

MadsonRyan         RP       53%   43%    4%    CrabtreeRobbie     AndersenLarry       MooreDonnie

HamelsCole         SP       79%   21%    0%      SwindellGreg        SmileyJohn       TananaFrank

RomeroJ.C.         RP       40%   42%   18%   BridgesMarshall       CadaretGreg        TolarKevin

WalkerTyler        RP       41%   45%   15%          PallDonn        PavlasDave     CrawfordSteve

BlantonJoe         SP       50%   48%    2%     TollbergBrian     LawrenceBrian       BurkettJohn

DurbinChad         RP       19%   59%   21%          LeeDavid    BottalicoRicky      BochtlerDoug

CondreyClay        RP       26%   43%   31%     PetkovsekMark   TiefenauerBobby      WilliamsTodd

LidgeBrad          RP       17%   58%   25%       StoddardTim     BerenguerJuan        DeJeanMike

EyreScott          RP       22%   45%   33%        VilloneRon       StantonMike        LyleSparky

HappJ.A.           SP       25%   62%   14%        KrivdaRick      SanchezJesus         TudorJohn

ZagurskiMike       RP       23%   38%   39%    AlmanzaArmando    LovingierKevin      FuentesBrian

MartinezPedro      SP       26%   49%   25%      BlylevenBert       MussinaMike         LieberJon

MyersBrett         SP       25%   55%   20%      TrombleyMike OliverasFrancisco        CarlsonDan

BastardoAntonio    SP       24%   49%   27%      SanchezJesus          OjedaBob HitchcockSterling

LopezRodrigo       SP       16%   52%   33%        EilandDave         KesterTim      JohnsonJason

EscalonaSergio     RP        7%   41%   53%         ByrdakTim         MurphyRob     DuquetteBryan

KendrickKyle       SP       11%   57%   32%     BlackburnNick         GeeveDave        ColemanJoe

TaschnerJack       RP        8%   36%   55%          FeshSean     NitkowskiC.J.       PerishoMatt

MoyerJamie         SP       12%   48%   41%        ReussJerry      FlanaganMike       SpahnWarren

ParkChanHo         RP        8%   33%   59%          PowerTed     NichtingChris       SparksSteve

DrabekKyle         SP       10%   46%   45%      RitterDarren         SongSeung    JacobsenLandon

StutesMichael      SP        5%   48%   47%        RinconJuan        ClaryMarty        RoscoeGreg

RegisterSteven     RP        4%   34%   62%          LynchJoe      MohorcicDale     JosephsonPaul

MazoneBrian        SP       13%   36%   50%   MulhollandTerry        MayDarrell      SwindellGreg

MajewskiGary       RP        3%   27%   70%        CoreyBryan        ComerSteve        MarquezRob

EnnisJohn          RP        5%   29%   67%         SmallMark     CrawfordSteve        BonesRicky

WorleyVance        SP        2%   32%   66%       WilkinsMike           DrewTim         BoveeMike

GreenSteve         RP        6%   26%   69%          LeeDavid      McLearyMarty     GrimsleyJason

AndersonJason      RP        2%   16%   82%        MarquezRob     PufferBrandon      WilkersonWes

WoodsJake          RP        1%   10%   90%   MackintoshJason        EibeyScott         DuffyJohn

CarpenterAndrew    SP        0%   12%   88%         BauerRick      NussbeckMark       TamayoDanny

NaylorDrew         SP        0%   11%   89%  ClutterbuckBryan      GutierrezJim      WaechterDoug

ChacinGustavo      SP        1%   13%   86%       SampsonBenj        FlenerHuck     ProchaskaMike

SaveryJoe          SP        0%    5%   95%      RamirezAllan       SeilerKeith      WodnickiMike

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

LeeCliff                71%       99%       41%      67%       90%

MadsonRyan              46%       93%       52%      11%       77%

HamelsCole              33%       95%       42%      58%       33%

RomeroJ.C.              40%       75%       30%       0%       65%

WalkerTyler             32%       74%       35%      15%       50%

BlantonJoe              13%       79%        6%      21%       44%

DurbinChad              15%       68%       29%       0%       70%

CondreyClay             26%       63%        4%      17%       75%

LidgeBrad               13%       63%       98%       0%       44%

EyreScott               22%       58%       36%       2%       69%

HappJ.A.                 3%       53%       13%       0%       16%

ZagurskiMike            23%       61%       66%       1%       60%

MartinezPedro           10%       44%       26%      23%       38%

MyersBrett               5%       52%       45%       3%       11%

BastardoAntonio          7%       45%       42%       0%       29%

LopezRodrigo             3%       35%        2%      24%       33%

EscalonaSergio           5%       41%       22%       0%       60%

KendrickKyle             2%       29%        0%       8%       43%

TaschnerJack             6%       37%       26%       0%       58%

MoyerJamie               2%       30%        3%       9%       21%

ParkChanHo               5%       29%       22%       5%       33%

DrabekKyle               1%       24%        2%       0%       32%

StutesMichael            1%       21%        1%       0%       28%

RegisterSteven           2%       25%        0%       1%       38%

MazoneBrian              3%       27%        3%      28%       20%

MajewskiGary             2%       25%        0%       2%       52%

EnnisJohn                3%       26%       21%       2%       30%

WorleyVance              0%       11%        0%       1%       19%

GreenSteve               4%       24%       26%       0%       44%

AndersonJason            1%       11%        1%       1%       28%

WoodsJake                1%        6%        0%       0%       15%

CarpenterAndrew          0%        1%        0%       0%        4%

NaylorDrew               0%        1%        0%       0%        4%

ChacinGustavo            0%        5%        0%       1%       14%

SaveryJoe                0%        0%        0%       0%       30%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

HowardRyan       .264 .358 .543 1953  7352   1215   1938  359  32  543 1731  1061   2477  20  13  128

RollinsJimmy     .267 .322 .429 2467 10518   1652   2808  611 150  266 1095   828   1311 546 116   92

UtleyChase       .283 .376 .493 1941  7347   1335   2077  429  44  344 1194   866   1431 177  21  122

IbanezRaul       .284 .346 .488 1971  7067   1068   2005  424  49  308 1225   679   1264  46  28  116

StairsMatt       .264 .358 .480 1848  5198    772   1373  294  14  266  906   720   1104  28  24  117

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

HamelsCole        214   152     0  3.86    537    539 3411   3275    485    821   3120    116

LeeCliff          220   124     0  3.70    471    459 3002   2982    300    740   2457    120

LidgeBrad          39    41   336  3.88    819      1  814    705     89    386   1048    113

MartinezPedro     234   116     3  3.06    521    454 3058   2474    269    831   3353    147

MoyerJamie        267   205     0  4.25    691    632 4048   4212    514   1161   2429    104

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 21, 2009 at 03:29 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. Shilzzz Posted: November 21, 2009 at 05:14 PM (#3393466)

thanks! good to see a new one up.

2. zachtoma Posted: November 21, 2009 at 05:52 PM (#3393492)

The Phillies have a one-two punch of John Smiley and John Smiley at the top of the rotation!

3. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3393514)

The Blanton projection seems off -- that would be his best ERA+ since 2005. The walk rate looks too low.

4. John DiFool2 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 08:21 PM (#3393570)

Howard would appear (given above career lines) a much better chance at the Hall than Utley, even tho the latter is a much better overall player; Utley's only chance would appear to be to catch Kent for the most HR's by a 2B title. So it's off to the end of the line of second base rejects, along with Whitaker & Grich, for him.

5. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: November 21, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3393578)

These seem like very good projections for the Phillies, this looks like a great team. Which is not to say that they're too starry-eyed or anything, necessarily.

Maybe directly following the Pirates accentuates the effect.

6. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:17 PM (#3393592)

It annoys me that the Phillies managed to get Francisco as a toss-in.

7. metsman128 Posted: November 21, 2009 at 09:40 PM (#3393601)

Not that it's a really important player, but I was curious how a guy like Rich Thompson or Jorge Valandia gets put on the list but someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 21, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3393616)

Looks like Brandon Inge would be a fit here.

9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: November 21, 2009 at 11:19 PM (#3393633)

someone like John Mayberry Jr. who actually played in this bigs this season for a few games doesn't even get a projection?

He's listed under John Mayberry, Jr. :) Look at the OPS+ 83 area.

10. philly Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:00 AM (#3393723)

A rotation with 4 200 game winners sure sounds pretty great! Ok Pedro and Moyer are already there. But are Lee and Hamels both good bets to get to 200 wins? Nothing systemtic, but I've been surprised at the number of 200 game winners that ZiPS has been projecting.

Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:08 AM (#3393728)

I'll double-check the Utley SB thing.

12. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:18 AM (#3393731)

Wow, nice projection on Taylor...Hey Dan, not to hijack this, but can you check out my David Lough question near the end of the Royals ZiPS?

Thanks,
Jim

BNSL Royals

13. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:23 AM (#3393735)

Is Taylor the best 5th OF in the majors?

14. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:28 AM (#3393738)

Lough will be in the final build.

15. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2009 at 03:42 AM (#3393741)

Thanks

16. Nolan Giesbrecht Posted: November 22, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3394073)

That's a pretty nice career projection for Rollins; if he makes it 18 or 19 seasons as a SS and gets to +2800 hits / +1600 runs / +250 hrs / +500 sb, he's in the Hall.

17. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

Posted: November 22, 2009 at 11:48 PM (#3394153)

Remember the "Chuck Norris"-type comments about Hamels a few years ago? Looking at his ZIPS career, Cole Hamels is so ______ because he will start more games than he appears in.

18. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: November 23, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3394160)

19. AndrewJ Posted: November 23, 2009 at 12:04 AM (#3394161)

Utley's career 177-21 SB-CS ratio looks odd. He's at 83-11 so that would be 94-10 the rest of his career. He's a good and smart baserunner, but I wouldn't bet on that. A freak show stat - but is there anybody in MLB history with greater than 175 SB and less than 25 CS?

After a quick search using Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia CD-ROM, I came up with this list:

CAREER
1951-2009
CAUGHT STEALING <= 30

STOLEN BASES SB CS
1 Pokey Reese 144 26
2 Henry Cotto 130 26
3 Jacoby Ellsbury 129 23
4 Eric Byrnes 128 23
5 Michael Bourn 121 25
T6 Shane Victorino 109 29
T6 R.J. Reynolds 109 29
8 Aaron Boone 107 30
9 Kaz Matsui 101 17
10 Jackie Robinson 97 30

20. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 23, 2009 at 02:51 PM (#3394428)

Through 2004, Carlos Beltran was at 192sb, 23cs for his career.

21. Neal Traven Posted: November 24, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3395267)

Beltran is now at 286-38 (88.3%). He's the all-time record holder in SB% for at least 300 attempts.

If you go higher in terms of attempts, Tim Raines at 84.7% is the all-time record holder for 400+ attempts. And 500+ and 600+ and 700+ and 800+ and 900+ ... his totals were 808-146.

If you go to 1000+, Rickey leads at 80.8%. However, only two of the four men with 1000 attempts played during the time period when CS were recorded. Brock is the other one.

22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 24, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3396020)

FWIW, Fangraphs has a Szymborski interview.

23. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 25, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3396485)

Wow, Andy Tracy is still kicking around!

24. Saberseams Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3396625)

there's a good chance Scott Mathieson will be in the Phils pen next year. A projection should probably be added for him.

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Saturday, November 21, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

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