Offensive Projections
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Garrett Jones* rf 29 .285 .339 .494 138 526 70 150 34 2 24 78 44 104 11 4 114
Andrew McCutchen cf 23 .281 .355 .446 149 597 105 168 35 9 15 72 66 101 27 11 108
Jeff Clement* c 26 .266 .340 .461 120 451 59 120 30 2 18 64 45 99 1 1 107
Brian Myrow* 1b 33 .265 .358 .405 101 336 39 89 18 1 9 41 46 71 1 1 99
Ryan Doumit# c 29 .276 .329 .452 97 341 49 94 22 1 12 52 24 58 3 1 101
Steven Pearce 1b 27 .268 .331 .456 143 504 66 135 34 2 19 85 44 98 8 6 103
Taggert Bozied 1b 30 .260 .332 .440 92 327 42 85 19 2 12 37 32 75 4 2 100
Akinori Iwamura* 2b 31 .286 .356 .400 106 412 59 118 23 6 4 31 44 78 9 4 99
Andy LaRoche 3b 26 .260 .345 .399 134 461 63 120 24 2 12 61 55 74 4 2 94
Jeff Salazar* lf 29 .255 .330 .401 119 364 52 93 16 5 9 44 39 71 11 2 90
Delwyn Young# 2b 28 .269 .322 .409 125 372 46 100 24 2 8 46 28 82 2 1 89
Neil Walker# 3b 24 .260 .303 .447 125 465 62 121 31 4 16 84 30 90 7 4 93
Lastings Milledge cf 25 .272 .329 .398 107 394 45 107 21 1 9 42 27 78 14 6 89
Brandon Moss* rf 26 .259 .321 .412 135 444 52 115 27 4 11 56 39 112 2 4 90
Erik Kratz c 30 .250 .304 .426 85 296 33 74 20 1 10 34 21 67 3 0 88
Pedro Alvarez* 3b 23 .233 .311 .419 131 506 66 118 26 1 22 84 59 165 2 1 88
Robinzon Diaz c 26 .296 .325 .389 83 301 27 89 14 1 4 31 11 23 2 2 86
Jason Jaramillo# c 27 .264 .328 .375 95 341 34 90 18 1 6 36 30 59 1 1 84
Ramon Vazquez* ss 33 .253 .340 .364 100 261 31 66 13 2 4 24 34 56 1 1 84
Larry Broadway* 1b 29 .249 .322 .401 101 334 35 83 19 1 10 40 35 86 1 4 88
Jim Negrych* 2b 25 .274 .338 .356 106 402 59 110 20 2 3 42 37 64 6 3 82
Jose Tabata rf 21 .266 .323 .373 102 402 53 107 21 2 6 37 29 63 10 5 81
Craig Monroe rf 33 .235 .294 .426 75 230 29 54 14 0 10 37 19 60 0 1 85
Jason Delaney 1b 27 .248 .321 .348 130 471 48 117 23 3 6 56 49 111 2 3 75
Ronny Cedeno ss 27 .252 .300 .386 114 345 39 87 13 3 9 38 22 68 6 3 78
Hector Gimenez# 3b 27 .255 .298 .377 88 310 29 79 15 1 7 37 19 61 1 2 75
Shelby Ford# 2b 25 .244 .295 .362 103 389 53 95 21 5 5 45 22 78 11 2 71
Brian Bixler ss 27 .237 .303 .359 131 465 71 110 21 6 8 42 36 145 15 5 72
Brian Friday ss 24 .249 .320 .349 104 410 50 102 20 3 5 38 36 81 7 8 75
Luis Cruz 2b 26 .264 .295 .373 119 416 49 110 25 1 6 42 16 45 4 4 73
Pedro Lopez 2b 26 .261 .309 .333 106 375 41 98 14 2 3 29 25 57 3 4 68
Steven Lerud* c 25 .227 .296 .323 102 353 34 80 17 1 5 35 29 90 2 1 62
Miguel Perez c 26 .247 .290 .339 54 174 16 43 7 0 3 18 8 42 1 1 64
Adam Melhuse# c 38 .223 .302 .309 34 94 9 21 5 0 1 9 10 26 0 0 60
Argenis Diaz ss 23 .240 .283 .306 122 445 34 107 17 3 2 32 25 97 5 4 54
Gorkys Hernandez cf 22 .231 .280 .312 128 532 68 123 23 4 4 40 34 138 13 10 55
Defensive Projections
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Jones* Av/128 Av/88 Av/87
McCutchen Vg/88
Clement* Pr Fr/106
Myrow* Av/123 Fr/147 Fr/147
Doumit# Av Fr/93 Fr/93
Pearce Av/109 Fr/136
Bozied Av/103 Pr/103 Pr/103
Iwamura* Av/76 Av/73
LaRoche Av/101 Fr/121 Av/101
Salazar* Av/83 Fr/91 Av/83
Young# Pr/95 Fr/96 Fr/101
Walker# Av/125
Milledge Vg/113 Fr/117 Fr/188
Moss* Fr/112 Av/92 Pr/95 Av/69
Kratz Av
Alvarez* Fr/139
Diaz Av Pr/116
Jaramillo# Av
Vazquez* Fr/44 Fr/107 Fr/89
Broadway* Av/100 Fr/120
Negrych* Fr/154 Av/149
Tabata Fr/88 Fr/108
Monroe Av/98 Av/98
Delaney Av/138 Fr/114
Cedeno Vg/98 Fr/114
Gimenez# Av Av/138 Fr/138
Ford# Av/123
Bixler Av/119 Av/119 Fr/107 Fr/121
Friday Av/133
Cruz Av/118 Av/118 Av/118
Lopez Vg/102 Vg/110 Vg/110
Lerud* Av
Perez Fr
Melhuse# Fr
Diaz Vg/136
Hernandez Vg/135 Vg/135 Vg/135
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
JonesGarrett RF 18% 30% 21% 18% 12% StoneJohn KirklandWillie JonesJacque
McCutchenAndrew CF 27% 30% 30% 12% 2% ByrdMarlon GrissomMarquis BeltranCarlos
ClementJeff 1B 2% 16% 27% 42% 14% FalconeDave McAnultyPaul RichardChris
DoumitRyan C 18% 44% 24% 12% 2% AshbyAlan VaritekJason HammockRobby
PearceSteven 1B 3% 8% 14% 40% 35% NymanChris BurnsJack WhiteDerrick
BoziedTagg RF 4% 7% 13% 29% 47% MeleSam JonesChris LesherBrian
MyrowBrian 1B 2% 5% 10% 37% 46% SnowJ.T. BrockGreg AbadAndy
LaRocheAndy 3B 2% 11% 25% 36% 27% AspromonteBob EdwardsMike LawVance
SalazarJeff LF 0% 3% 10% 27% 61% BradshawTerry StroudEd JonesChris
WalkerNeil 3B 1% 7% 19% 36% 38% WallerCasey SpiezioScott CaminitiKen
MilledgeLastings LF 0% 2% 6% 23% 69% BrownEmil SothernDenny RabeJosh
YoungDelwyn 2B 5% 10% 19% 34% 31% ScalesBobby BarberieBret ManuelJerry
KratzErik C 4% 23% 32% 32% 9% SantiagoBenito LakerTim HammockRobby
DiazRobinzon C 0% 8% 25% 46% 21% TaylorZack BradleyScott RuizCarlos
MossBrandon RF 1% 1% 3% 13% 83% GrantTom WakelandChris VanderwalJohn
AlvarezPedro 3B 0% 5% 16% 34% 45% MooreScott HaasChris DavidGreg
JaramilloJason C 1% 8% 20% 43% 28% RodgersBuck GoochJohnny WalbeckMatt
NegrychJames 2B 1% 2% 7% 24% 65% GatesMike EricksonMatt HitchcoxBrian
VazquezRamon SS 3% 12% 35% 34% 16% KlausBilly FregosiJim CrosettiFrankie
TabataJose RF 0% 0% 1% 7% 93% CanateWillie AlvarezTony HunterScott
BroadwayLarry 1B 0% 0% 1% 11% 87% BarkerKevin WardPreston PritchettChris
MonroeCraig RF 2% 2% 3% 10% 83% EversHoot RudiJoe ThompsonRyan
CedenoRonny SS 2% 2% 14% 38% 44% HolbertAaron FurmaniakJ.J. GarciaCarlos
FordShelby 2B 0% 1% 3% 12% 84% PattersonJohn OlmedaJose KataMatt
GimenezHector 3B 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% StrangeDoug WilliamsGlenn FultonGreg
BixlerBrian SS 0% 2% 15% 38% 45% NocePaul BasakChris RansomCody
DelaneyJason 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% EspyNate CarpenterGlenn BurnsJack
CruzLuis SS 0% 2% 8% 25% 65% FoliTim BarmesClint CruzDeivi
FridayBrian SS 0% 2% 6% 19% 73% ConcepcionDave FletcherScott JacksonDamian
LopezPedro 2B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% HamricRusty LeggGreg ForbesP.J.
PerezMiguel C 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% KnappMike KratzErik ParrishDave
LerudSteven C 0% 0% 0% 4% 95% SkeelsAndy BakoPaul BakerJohn
MelhuseAdam C 0% 1% 1% 4% 95% DifeliceMike LampkinTom ParrishLance
DiazArgenis SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% HuylerMike LackeySteve PetitGregorio
HernandezGorkys CF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% JacksonDarrin ColemanMichael RepkoJason
Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB
JonesGarrett 26% 7% 44% 8% 8% 0% 20% 0%
McCutchenAndrew 20% 22% 5% 2% 9% 61% 0% 37%
ClementJeff 8% 8% 18% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0%
DoumitRyan 22% 6% 12% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
PearceSteven 10% 5% 14% 3% 7% 0% 7% 0%
BoziedTagg 8% 7% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MyrowBrian 11% 26% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaRocheAndy 5% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SalazarJeff 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0%
WalkerNeil 4% 0% 6% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0%
MilledgeLastings 13% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
YoungDelwyn 14% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
KratzErik 6% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DiazRobinzon 40% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MossBrandon 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
AlvarezPedro 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0%
JaramilloJason 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NegrychJames 17% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
VazquezRamon 6% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
TabataJose 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BroadwayLarry 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MonroeCraig 4% 0% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CedenoRonny 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
FordShelby 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0%
GimenezHector 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BixlerBrian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 0% 0%
DelaneyJason 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
CruzLuis 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
FridayBrian 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LopezPedro 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
PerezMiguel 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LerudSteven 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MelhuseAdam 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DiazArgenis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
HernandezGorkys 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Pitching Statistics - Starters
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Charlie Morton 26 4.12 11 11 30 30 164.0 164 75 13 64 116 103
Paul Maholm* 28 4.34 9 11 32 32 205.1 220 99 20 58 134 98
Zach Duke* 27 4.76 9 13 31 30 189.0 223 100 20 42 91 89
Kevin Hart 27 4.83 6 10 42 19 130.1 138 70 17 55 96 88
Jeff Karstens 27 4.87 5 7 31 15 105.1 113 57 14 35 61 87
Tim Alderson 21 4.94 6 9 27 27 136.2 157 75 16 42 72 86
Daniel McCutchen 27 4.99 8 13 28 27 157.0 173 87 24 43 98 85
Ross Ohlendorf 27 5.03 7 12 26 26 155.2 172 87 23 50 105 84
Brad Lincoln 25 5.14 6 10 24 24 122.2 142 70 18 32 76 83
Eric Hacker 27 5.19 5 10 28 26 138.2 163 80 14 55 74 82
Bobby Livingston* 27 5.22 5 9 23 22 132.2 166 77 14 36 57 81
Jason Davis 30 5.33 4 7 32 11 82.2 95 49 7 45 40 80
Yoslan Herrera 29 5.60 5 11 27 22 119.0 145 74 14 49 61 76
Phil Dumatrait* 28 5.60 3 7 22 12 72.1 83 45 11 33 40 76
Ty Taubenheim 27 5.62 5 10 24 20 105.2 122 66 16 44 62 75
Ron Uviedo 23 5.66 3 5 31 11 90.2 103 57 17 35 59 75
Jimmy Barthmaier 26 5.82 2 5 18 15 72.2 87 47 10 37 48 73
Daniel Moskos* 24 5.91 6 13 29 24 129.1 157 85 17 65 64 72
Virgil Vasquez 28 5.99 4 10 21 18 103.2 126 69 21 32 61 71
Kyle Bloom* 27 6.03 5 12 25 23 106.0 122 71 14 68 65 70
Bryan Morris 23 6.18 3 8 18 18 78.2 96 54 9 51 36 69
Donald Veal* 25 6.24 3 7 31 18 88.0 100 61 13 69 69 68
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Matt Capps 26 3.88 5 5 64 0 65.0 64 28 8 16 54 109
Joel Hanrahan 28 4.04 3 3 72 0 78.0 74 35 7 38 88 105
Chris Bootcheck 31 4.13 2 2 47 0 61.0 60 28 5 24 56 103
Jose Ascanio 25 4.32 3 4 43 7 77.0 81 37 7 30 59 98
Craig Hansen 26 4.50 2 2 31 0 36.0 35 18 3 21 27 94
Evan Meek 27 4.55 1 1 48 0 63.1 62 32 5 37 51 93
Tyler Yates 32 4.57 2 3 46 0 43.1 43 22 4 22 39 93
Denny Bautista 29 4.61 3 5 56 0 68.1 68 35 6 42 58 92
Jorge Julio 31 4.76 2 3 55 0 58.2 59 31 6 35 52 89
Jeffrey Sues 27 4.92 3 5 46 0 78.2 77 43 11 43 66 86
Justin Thomas* 26 5.06 3 4 56 0 64.0 66 36 7 39 47 84
Steven Jackson 28 5.09 3 5 51 4 81.1 91 46 9 36 53 83
Brian Slocum 29 5.40 2 4 20 5 46.2 49 28 7 26 37 79
Anthony Claggett 25 5.77 4 9 38 7 82.2 100 53 10 43 44 74
* - Throws Left
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
CappsMatt RP 27% 54% 19% MelendezJose DeLeonLuis MateoJulio
HanrahanJoel RP 20% 55% 25% D’AcquistoJohn BulgerJason HowellKen
MortonCharlie SP 37% 55% 9% EggertsenTodd BoggsTommy LeaCharlie
BootcheckChris RP 22% 50% 28% OsunaAntonio CarrascoHector StantonMike
AscanioJose RP 12% 52% 35% FrohwirthTodd DrummondTim HigueraTeddy
MaholmPaul SP 20% 63% 16% HalamaJohn RedmanMark HaneyChris
HansenCraig RP 13% 33% 54% CornellJeff BowlesBrian PisciottaMarc
MeekEvan RP 7% 45% 47% BowlesBrian CornellJeff LugoRuddy
YatesTyler RP 13% 38% 49% LeeDavid SlocumbHeathcliff HoughCharlie
BautistaDenny RP 5% 37% 58% CorcoranRoy SmithRoy StoopsJim
JulioJorge RP 6% 37% 56% BeanColter LeeDavid HoldridgeDavid
DukeZach SP 10% 50% 40% EllsworthDick BallardJeff PriestEddie
HartKevin SP 1% 28% 71% KimSun-Woo ShieldsSteve SeifertRyan
KarstensJeff SP 1% 30% 69% WoodMike BritoMario LincolnMike
SuesJeffrey RP 2% 30% 68% HedrickJustin JonesJeff RisleyBill
McCutchenDaniel SP 3% 41% 56% NeidlingerJim MeadowsBrian GuerrierMatt
OhlendorfRoss SP 3% 38% 59% NeidlingerJim GuerrierMatt TelfordAnthony
ThomasJustin RP 2% 23% 75% MancusoPaul WiegandtScott PottsMike
JacksonSteven RP 1% 21% 78% HeaverloJeff NickleDoug KingCurtis
LincolnBrad SP 2% 31% 67% TelghederDave GearyGeoff EvansKeith
HackerEric SP 2% 31% 68% LaCossMike BeasleyChris ScottMike
LivingstonBobby SP 3% 30% 66% RheineckerJohn GuettermanLee EllsworthDick
DavisJason SP 1% 12% 87% WilloughbyClaude OdomBlue Moon JuelsgaardJarod
SlocumBrian RP 2% 21% 77% CameronRyan ShearnTom ProctorScott
HerreraYoslan SP 1% 13% 86% MagraneJim TankersleyDennis SnyderJohn
DumatraitPhil SP 2% 14% 84% SheaJohn HampsonJustin GonzalesFrank
TaubenheimTy SP 1% 14% 85% MackTony FoleyRick DickeyR.A.
UviedoRonald SP 0% 7% 93% BlazierRon CastilloCarlos BurnsTodd
ClaggettAnthony RP 0% 5% 95% GutierrezJim FlanaganMike RobertsWillis
BarthmaierJimmy SP 1% 13% 86% ChavezWilton HooverJohn RodgersBobby
MoskosDaniel SP 0% 5% 95% LockhartBruce KleineVictor SlatenDoug
VasquezVirgil SP 0% 7% 92% DiFeliceMark OliverasFrancisco EllsworthSteve
BloomKyle SP 0% 4% 96% TabakaJeff MusserNeal HamiltonClayton
MorrisBryan SP 0% 5% 94% SodowskyClint BumgarnerJeff MorelEdwin
VealDonald SP 0% 4% 96% CromwellNate PrattAndy BeaumontMatt
Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9
<1
CappsMatt 21% 70% 27% 39% 52%
HanrahanJoel 15% 63% 96% 0% 86%
MortonCharlie 7% 64% 4% 0% 91%
BootcheckChris 16% 58% 60% 2% 89%
AscanioJose 9% 52% 9% 1% 82%
MaholmPaul 2% 47% 1% 13% 76%
HansenCraig 13% 46% 13% 0% 81%
MeekEvan 7% 45% 20% 0% 85%
YatesTyler 9% 42% 46% 0% 71%
BautistaDenny 3% 35% 30% 0% 88%
JulioJorge 4% 30% 47% 0% 77%
DukeZach 2% 24% 0% 55% 59%
HartKevin 0% 19% 4% 0% 37%
KarstensJeff 1% 18% 0% 3% 37%
SuesJeffrey 1% 22% 27% 0% 39%
McCutchenDaniel 0% 13% 0% 15% 12%
OhlendorfRoss 0% 11% 1% 3% 15%
ThomasJustin 1% 20% 6% 0% 58%
JacksonSteven 0% 13% 0% 0% 55%
LincolnBrad 0% 10% 0% 25% 22%
HackerEric 0% 8% 0% 0% 64%
LivingstonBobby 0% 10% 0% 24% 70%
DavisJason 1% 8% 1% 0% 84%
SlocumBrian 2% 17% 17% 0% 37%
HerreraYoslan 0% 3% 0% 2% 45%
DumatraitPhil 0% 5% 0% 0% 28%
TaubenheimTy 0% 3% 0% 0% 25%
UviedoRonald 0% 4% 0% 1% 7%
ClaggettAnthony 0% 3% 0% 0% 49%
BarthmaierJimmy 0% 3% 1% 0% 35%
MoskosDaniel 0% 0% 0% 0% 32%
VasquezVirgil 0% 1% 0% 10% 5%
BloomKyle 0% 1% 0% 0% 39%
MorrisBryan 0% 1% 0% 0% 57%
VealDonald 0% 0% 14% 0% 27%
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
DoumitRyan .265 .320 .431 1176 4029 538 1067 250 10 133 585 271 731 29 15 95
LaRocheAndy .248 .334 .383 1261 4271 556 1058 211 22 107 529 506 693 34 19 87
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+
DukeZach 87 125 0 4.56 298 294 1836 2167 191 446 927 92
MaholmPaul 112 130 0 4.44 388 387 2449 2647 245 758 1600 96
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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1. Dan SzymborskiIs Milledge a VG defender in LF and a FR defender in RF because of his arm? Is that 188 the number of throwing errors he's going to make?
his career OPS+ is 89, but then again he's gone 104, 92, 86...
I think this is make or break time for him.
There were a bunch of athletic guys who came up in recent years, all coming up at age 20-22, who just seemingly stalled out imediately for some reason:
Delmon Young,
Chris Young
Milledge
Melky Cabrera (whose "breakthrough was a 99 OPS+ at age 24- he posted 95 at age 21)
Jay Bruce (I know it's early... but that's what they said about Delmon and Chris Young)
I could almost put Ellsbury here to, Adam Jones has shown some improvement but is still kind of disappointing...
ok 2000-2009, 21 year old OFs with 300+ PAs:
Rocco Baldelli 99 2003Carl Crawford 81 2003
Miguel Cabrera 130 2004
Melky Cabrera 95 2006
Delmon Young 91 2007
Jay Bruce 96 2008
Justin Upton 128 2009
ok 2000-2009, 22 year old OFs with 300+ PAs:
Carlos Beltran 99 1999 22Andruw Jones 113 1999 22
Peter Bergeron 67 2000 22
Corey Patterson 78 2002 22
Austin Kearns 134 2002 22
Albert Pujols 151 2002 22
Adam Dunn 121 2002 22
Wily Mo Pena 115 2004 22
Rocco Baldelli 100 2004 22
Carl Crawford 105 2004 22
Miguel Cabrera 151 2005 22
Grady Sizemore 123 2005 22
Nick Markakis 106 2006 22
Jeremy Hermida 84 2006 22
Jeff Francoeur 87 2006 22
Melky Cabrera 89 2007 22
Matt Kemp 125 2007 22
B.J. Upton 136 2007 22
Delmon Young 102 2008 22
Carlos Gonzalez 72 2008 22
Carlos Gomez 79 2008 22
Adam Jones 85 2008 22
Jay Bruce 97 2009 22
Gerardo Parra 86 2009 22
Colby Rasmus 88 2009 22
Andrew McCutchen 124 2009 22
Torii Hunter 73 1999 23Mark Kotsay 83 1999 23
Karim Garcia 84 1999 23
Juan Encarnacion 85 1999 23
Jose Guillen 67 1999 23
J.D. Drew 91 1999 23
Gabe Kapler 93 1999 23
Carlos Lee 94 1999 23
Ben Grieve 118 1999 23
Carlos Beltran 69 2000 23
Andruw Jones 125 2000 23
Peter Bergeron 45 2001 23
Juan Pierre 89 2001 23
Dee Brown 63 2001 23
Vernon Wells 96 2002 23
Corey Patterson 114 2003 23
Coco Crisp 76 2003 23
Austin Kearns 117 2003 23
Albert Pujols 187 2003 23
Adam Dunn 116 2003 23
Laynce Nix 81 2004 23
Alexis Rios 85 2004 23
Wily Mo Pena 105 2005 23
Willy Taveras 75 2005 23
Victor Diaz 108 2005 23
Kelly Johnson 91 2005 23
Carl Crawford 111 2005 23
Grady Sizemore 132 2006 23
Travis Buck 130 2007 23
Nick Markakis 121 2007 23
Jeremy Hermida 125 2007 23
Jeff Francoeur 103 2007 23
Chris Young 89 2007 23
Adam Lind 77 2007 23
Ryan Sweeney 101 2008 23
Melky Cabrera 68 2008 23
Matt Kemp 108 2008 23
Lastings Milledge 91 2008 23
B.J. Upton 107 2008 23
Dexter Fowler 98 2009 23
Delmon Young 97 2009 23
Carlos Gonzalez 122 2009 23
Carlos Gomez 69 2009 23
Adam Jones 104 2009 23
just a bunch of randomness really
Doubt they will pitch enough to contend, but I can easily see this team pushing both their OPS+ and ERA+ a tad over 90
Paul Maholm* 28 4.34
Zach Duke* 27 4.76
Kevin Hart 27 4.83
Jeff Karstens 27 4.87
Daniel McCutchen 27 4.99
Ross Ohlendorf 27 5.03
Brad Lincoln 25 5.14
Eric Hacker 27 5.19
Bobby Livingston* 27 5.22
Boy, it's going to be hard to tell those guys apart. Do the Pirates have a single rotation candidate who isn't a white guy between 25 and 28 years old? I think Maholm is the only one who isn't a control pitcher, too.
Donald "Bob Veale" Veal has been getting great reviews in the AFL.
I could see Milledge, but I think LaRoche is permanently damaged goods. It's a shame, but it looks like he went the route of Willie Greene (immense talent derailed by a lingering hand/wrist injury).
I dearly hope Capps makes its back to something approaching that projection. I made the grievous error of signing him to a 3 year contract and now I'm stuck with him for two more seasons... absent a trade to the AL (please... please... please).
Really? McCutcheon and Doumit are the only two starters projected to be above-average for their position and not by huge margins. They have zero depth position-wise except in an unending array of AAAA 1B and Neil Walker. They don't have a SS or an LF. If the rotation's healthy, it's still a bad rotation and that's got to be one of the worst bullpen projections out there.
This is what I don't like about the Pirates' plan. They've traded away 10 starting position players, a couple starting pitchers and a couple of relievers in the last 1.5 seasons. None of those guys were great ... but look at those projections. Other than possibly Tabata and Alderson, did they get anybody in all those trades who has a legit shot at being part of the "next good Pirates team"? At best you have a collection of players entering their prime years whose upside is "league average" and their projection is "probably won't suck." Guys like Jones, Clement, Pearce, Milledge, Moss -- guys who haven't established themselves in the majors by age 25-26 and who don't project well -- are generally lucky if they're still playing past 30. (Pitchers admittedly are different and maybe somebody like Morton will put together a Suppan-like string of seasons.)
I know you can still make a case for trading away mediocre, pricier players for sub-mediocre, cheaper players with the chance a couple will turn out mediocre or better ... but the Pirate strategy is not a recipe for on-field success. Any success they have 5+ years from now will be the result of their drafting over the last few and next few years and maybe getting back some legitimately good prospects for Doumit or whoever.
I dunno, isn't it a good thing to have young pitching? None of the Pirates arms is really young but they are all on the younger side, that is a good thing no?
As for white guys, well... they are major league pitchers. If they are not Latin signees they are hugely likely to be white.
I think Maholm is the only one who isn't a control pitcher, too.
Maholm IS actually a control pitcher I believe.
Actually I think you are pretty backwards with your comment. Most of those guys the Pirates have are raw stuff projects.
Morton has been a raw, projectable low/mid 90s fastball and plus curveball guy for years now who did not always throw strikes.
Ross Ohlendorf has hit 96, 97.
Kevin Hart has been a semi-prospect basically because he can reach back and get his FB to 95.
Lincoln throws strikes but he was a low/mid 90s fastball guy in college, unless TJ surgery took that away from him.
I remember McCutchen tossing 05 out of the pen in college too, but maybe he is a control guy nowadays as a starter.
Hey, it happens. If I weren't willing to put up with the occasional transcription error, I could always get off my ass and devise my own projection system.
I should probably just stop asking questions about system mechanics. The last time I did it, I think I accidentally got MGL fired from a consulting gig. He had posted some projection for Craig Wilson that looked off to me, and when I asked him about it, it turned out that he'd forgotten to include Wilson's HBPs in the projection, at a time when Wilson was averaging 20+ per 162. And he'd already turned the errant projection in to his employer.
His knees supposedly can't handle a regular gig behind the plate, so they've been working on teaching him to play first base. Barring any acquisitions, he and Pearce are probably in line to battle for 1B, and might end up as a platoon. That said, I think they'll look at signing an OF this offseason, which would shift Jones to 1B.
"I could see Milledge, but I think LaRoche is permanently damaged goods. It's a shame, but it looks like he went the route of Willie Greene (immense talent derailed by a lingering hand/wrist injury)."
Remember, ZiPS doesn't have any idea that he was playing hurt in 2008, and the translation on that line is awful. His 2009 ZiPS, which relied on it even more heavily, was .232/.325/.363.
They've got a ton of averagish to just below looking starting pitchers and odds are some of them will break out.
Tabata, Milledge, Alvarez, LaRoche and Clement were all big time prospects, and I don't think it's too late for any or all of them to reach their potential.
Who cares about the bullpen? Figure that out when you have a good team in place elsewhere.
I'm not saying they'll be competitive this year, but they actually seem to be assembling some talent.
Plus, they've got $0 committed to anyone long-term. $17.625M committed in 2010, $13,500 in 2011 (no that's not a typo).
Any guys that develop they should be able to lock up long term. Plus, they should be able to spend on amateur bonuses and, eventually, some FAs when they get competitive.
Drafting premium talent in the early rounds - which they did with Alvarez and McCutchen but basically haven't done otherwise. If they'd drafted Wieters or Heyward when they had the chance, we might be singing a different tune. We'll see what they do this year.
despite drafting a ton of them over the years.
-- MWE
Alvarez is the only one I'd put any stock in, at this stage. And none of them is likely to develop into a middle-of-the-order power bat.
The Pirates' track record in player development (not just drafting) has been just awful - that's one area that didn't get a lot of attention in the Littlefield years and which I'm not sure is getting the right amount of attention now.
-- MWE
Well, there's Morton, who has the best 2010 projection among the team's starters. And even if LaRoche doesn't move forward one iota from here on out, he was good for 2.5 WAR last year. And of course, a lot of the players they acquired in those trades are too far from the majors for ZiPS to reasonably project, so they aren't listed in the chart above.
If you're saying that the deals didn't bring back a lot of future stars, that's true, but who's going to give up a future star for Jack Wilson? And if you want to criticize the system depth, you may want to re-familiarize yourself with exactly how shallow the system was when Huntington took over. The team's 2008 ZiPS page isn't a bad place to start - how many viable 2010 options are on that list? And here is Sickels's 2008 list of the team's top prospects - how many of those guys have any chance of developing into significant contributors?
At least we have a few SS prospects now. I'm cautiously optimistic about D'Arnaud, and I'm very curious to see how Cunningham looks coming back this year.
SS: I, for one, believed in Lillibridge - oops.
What do you suggest that they do?
Before I even try to answer that, let me try to explain some of the things that concern me about this plan:
1. What the Pirates have done is nearly unprecedented in baseball history. Over the course of 1.5 seasons, they traded nearly their entire opening day 2008 lineup (Doumit remains but they did trade Paulinho) plus Nyjer Morgan and a couple of starters and relievers. It's true, that 2008 lineup wasn't gonna win. It's true that, other than possibly Bay, none of them were "stars". It's true that, other than possibly McLouth, none of them were going to be part of the "next good Pirates team". But it's also true that lineup was full of league-average-ish guys, starting ML quality guys like LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, Nady and McLouth. The only player you'd point to and say "he probably wouldn't start for anybody else except maybe the Royals, etc." was Bautista.
It's one thing to trade off a couple guys in 2008 and a couple more in 2009. It's another thing to trade away half of your ML roster including every ML quality player you have in 18 months.
2. And if you're gonna do that, you damn well better bring back enough talent that you have nearly guaranteed that your team 3+ years from now will be a lot better than it would be otherwise.
Here's where we might have some disagreement. I'm not a prospect hound and maybe some of the really young guys they got are quite talented. (Of course I do know that it's quite rare for talented 19-year-olds to have any substantial impact in the majors though). But it appears that they mostly got back guys who, if you're lucky, will be exactly the sort of league-average-ish blah that you just traded away. Like I said, Alderson was a nice pickup, he could be genuinely good. Tabata was a reasonable roll of the dice -- everyone seems to agree he's got raw talent -- but it's not looking like it will pay off. But 1.5 legit prospects for 14+ ML players ... not a good return.
3. I believe teams do have a responsibility to put their "best" ML team on the field. Obviously teams need to balance off their responsibility to put their "best" team on the field 3-5 years from now vs. putting the "best" one out there today. Obviously there's no problem with "let's trade half a season of LaRoche for something." But these trades, as a whole, don't seem to have improved the 2012-2014 Pirates to any extent to me. The 2012-14 Pirates might be a lot better than the 2008-9 Pirates, but that will have little/nothing to do with these trades.
So, what should they have done differently? I wouldn't have traded McLouth. An OF of McLouth, McCutcheon and Jones is, y'know, reasonably young, cheap and productive. They needed to get more for Bay (I've never really been a LaRoche believer). They pretty much gave away Snell and Gorzelanny -- neither was particularly worth holding onto but they're still 5th/6th starter quality. Guys like Bautista and Paulinho are perfectly decent bench players and depth is one of the major reasons that teams like the Pirates win 65 instead of 70 (OK, that's probably an overestimate).
I've long been of the opinion that a lot of folks on Primer: (1) under-rate the value of average ML players; (2) over-rate the value of top prospects; and (3) GREATLY over-rate the value of middling prospects. The Pirates will be fairly lucky if they get a player as good (and cost-controlled) as Nate McLouth out of trading away an entire lineup plus. And chances are the folks in favor of the McLouth trade will, 4-5 years from now, be saying the Pirates might as well trade this new McLouth because he's not that good and he's not gonna be part of their next good team and they might as well get 3 middling prospects for him ... in hopes that one of those prospects might turn out to be as good as the new McLouth.
So, to sum up: I agree that, when all is said and done about the 2010-2011 Pirates, it won't really have mattered if they'd held onto some of those guys. But I'm also of the opinion that, when all is said and done about the 2012-2014 Pirates, it won't really have mattered that they traded away all those guys. And chances are those 2012-14 Pirates are going to find themselves in the same boat as the 2008-9 Pirates -- some decent players approaching FA who they need to get something for before they're gone. So, as a strategy, what's really to like?
It's not "that idiot Huntington missed this obvious magic bullet over here". That's especially true given the mess he was left with. There is no magic bullet. The key is drafting, signing, developing ... and making a few good trades. I don't see any genuinely good trades here other than Sanchez-Alderson (which still might not work out) -- no real disasters either.
My gripes are more (1) the wide acceptance that this is a good strategy simply because it's trading average MLers for "prospects" and (2) that if this strategy becomes widespread -- that if you aren't going to compete for a playoff spot in the next two years, you trade away your entire lineup (including good/average, young cost-controlled guys) for whatever you can get -- it will be very bad for baseball.
And before anyone brings up the famed example of the 97 Marlins fire sale:
Charles Johnson and Gary Sheffield for Preston Wilson
Moises Alou for nothing
Devon White for nothing
Robb Nen for nothing
Kevin Brown for Derrek Lee
Dennis Cook for nothing
Al Leiter for AJ Burnett
Kurt Abbott for nothing
That was a LOT more talent traded away and still Lee and Burnett (and Wilson became part of Pierre) were the only pieces that contributed to the 2003 Marlins championship. The 2003 Marlins were built by good drafting, a couple of later trades (Yarnall for Lowell, a prospect trade, and Mantei for Penny), and a few smart FA signings.
Alderson could be Burnett I suppose but I don't see a Derrek Lee (who was ML-ready to boot) in what the Pirates got back. And of course if Alderson does become Burnett, there's a very good chance the Pirates are gonna be in the same spot with him circa 2014 as they were with Nate McLouth.
They've got a ton of averagish to just below looking starting pitchers and odds are some of them will break out.
No, they've got a "ton" of replacement-level 6th starters. Their #3 starter (I suspect they think of Duke as their #1) projects to an 89 ERA+ ... that's really rather awful. The chances of one of these guys putting up a 100 ERA+ is no better than the chances of them putting up a 70 or Morton putting up an 85. None of them have the sort of K-rate that you look for in a "break out" candidate. You're looking at a bunch of guys out of which you might get a couple guys who can put up a handful of 95-100 ERA+ BIP-pitcher type seasons.
This current collection of Pirate starters doesn't look appreciably different then the collection they had a few years ago -- in with Morton and Ohlendorf, out with Snell and Gorzelanny. The 2005 Pirates had Wells, Redman, Fogg (all happily sitting in the mid-80s ERA+), Dave Williams (96!), the genuine prospect Ollie Perez, Duke, Snell, Maholm, Gorzelanny and the best 81 innings of Ryan Vogelsong's career. Or look at the 2008 page Vlad linked and you've got Gorzelanny and Snell a bit above-average, Duke and Maholm just below, Bullington at about a 90 ERA+, Morris and Chacon just above that, even JvBS was projected to about an 80 ERA+. They've still got a bunch of guys who don't strike anybody out, have bad K/BB ratios and project to 5th/6th starter range.
Tabata, Milledge, Alvarez, LaRoche and Clement were all big time prospects, and I don't think it's too late for any or all of them to reach their potential.
Clement was a big-time prospect because he was a C. Folks seem to agree he can't play there anymore and so, even if he reaches his potential, he's Adam LaRoche. Anyway, yes, there's a decent chance one of these guys pays off (i.e. actually becomes an above-average player) -- I'd say there's almost no chance of all of them paying off but no biggie. Now we'll leave Alvarez aside since he was a draftee and doesn't relate to the strategy behind all these trades. So what you've got is Nady, Bay, Morgan and Wilson for hopefully one guy who falls somewhere between Nady and Bay and maybe one guy in the Morgan-Nady range. And if that does pay off, then around 2013-14 (or sooner in LaRoche's case) you'll be in the same position with that good player as you just were with McLouth. That doesn't look like any sort of substantial progress to me.
All but one of the scouting directors since the Syd Thrift era have been terrible (Mickey White is the exception). Also, the team drastically cut the draft budget under Littlefield, with predictable results, and totally stopped spending on foreign prospects, with equally predictable results.
In a more historical sense, it didn't help that Howie Haak got old and retired.
From the little of Lillibridge I saw this year, he looked like he can handle just about any position defensively. He was easily the fastest player who saw time in a White Sox uniform this year. The problem, of course, is that he can't hit a lick. That and he looks like a 15-year old boy. I imagine he'll be carded until he's at least 40.
Get guys who have a background in player development into the organization, and standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone teaches the same way. Spend some frickin' money on the minor league facilities. Establish GOOD working relationships with the affiliates so that they will support what you are trying to do.
I'm not saying that the Pirates HAVEN'T tried to do this, but the fact that (a) Hickory wanted out of the relationship and (b) Lynchburg wanted out of the relationship and (c) Altoona isn't all that happy with the relationship, although they aren't likely to ask out of it, doesn't speak well for what they have done.
-- MWE
I thought of him, but the guys I named all significantly outhit him in the minors, he's a different case imho, he wasn't that good, his initial 50-60 mLB games were flukish, after that he started matching his MLEs- only a little better.
The Delmons, Milledges's, Chris Youngs, Adam Joneses, have all failed to match their MLEs AND most have regressed from that point on.
Which is nice, but nobody was offering more. Tampa's best package at the deadline was Niemann and Brignac, and Florida was trying to center theirs on Jeremy Hermida. And Bay's value wasn't exactly going up...
"So, what should they have done differently? I wouldn't have traded McLouth."
OK. As the extension of this, who would you have used in the rotation instead of Morton, a.k.a. the best pitcher currently on staff?
"They pretty much gave away Snell and Gorzelanny -- neither was particularly worth holding onto but they're still 5th/6th starter quality."
Snell is due $4.25M next year, and he demoted himself to AAA in-season rather than keep pitching for the team. Hanging onto him wasn't an option. Gorzelanny was traded for a guy that ZiPS is projecting as being good for a 4.83 in the rotation next year, so if you believe the projection, that's a fifth starter for a fifth starter.
Which was a truly stunning event. I'd never heard of a player before requesting that he be demoted because he didn't want to stay on the major league squad.
Well, you could understand if it was a Met, fearing for his physical well-being.
I'm still of the opinion that the Pirates mishandled this situation, and that while Snell's reaction was immature that the team has only itself to blame for what happened.
-- MWE
If I'm following you here, and please correct me if I'm not, it's not the overrating of middling prospects that peeves you so much as conflating or ignoring the difference in value between developing your own middling prospects and acquiring them?
What do they have now (I'm serious)? Are they not there, are they there but not effective, is it the people you're drafting (we've already covered the international side)?
and standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone teaches the same way.
Do they not do this?
I'm not convinced that this is a prerequisite, but do think it's a good idea to have a "Pirate Way", though you do run the risk of not developing some guys that way...
Spend some frickin' money on the minor league facilities.
Same sort of questions. Do we know that they don't? (I've been under the impression that they don't - I'm sure you know.)
Establish GOOD working relationships with the affiliates so that they will support what you are trying to do.
I *did* know about this - they've been short-sighted, no doubt.
Do you mind elaborating on this? As far as I'm aware, both the Hickory/WV and Lynchburg/Bradenton moves were done primarily out of convenience - Charleston is much closer to Pittsburgh than Hickory, and Bradenton shares a city with the team's largest minor league complex. And Chuck Greenberg keeps extending Altoona's contract with the Pirates, so I really am curious as to what you mean here.
I can understand not liking a major league team to trade away all of its decent veterans, but I don't hear a better idea for the franchise, other than "sign and develop" (not mutually exclusive with trading) and "get better players in trade" (yeah, of course, but good luck with that). McLouth is a good example. The news I hear is that he was being a baby about being asked to switch to a corner spot. What are the Pirates supposed to do about that? Or Snell being a baby about everything? I mean, you basically have to trade those guys, and what they got back in both instances seems very fair to me (if not a plus for the Pirates). You could point out that it's alarmingly curious that the Pirates tend to have more of these types of issues with players and agents than the average team (Alvarez, Sano, Hinske, McLouth, Snell), but there's really nothing beyond the circumstantial to suggest that the Pirates are systematically to blame for all that stuff.
On a related note, I don't know if people overrate prospects or what, but it seems like a lot of people have started underrating the type of player who's not a prospect but still extremely talented. So on one hand you have guys like Milledge, LaRoche, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, B.J. Upton, etc., who are no longer prospects and have disappointed in the majors but who still have the prospect pedigree and are still very young. On the other hand, you have guys like Clement, Morton, etc. who are too old to be good prospects in the traditional sense, but who are performing well in the minors. In both cases, it seems like that type of player is underrated, and I don't mind the Pirates taking chances on that type of guy. They seem to me to be just as good as the chances on a younger prospect, except that where the upside on a younger guy might be "hall-of-famer," the upside on guys like Milledge and Clement might be "a couple of all-star seasons in his prime." I'll take that upside from a guy who's already an average-ish major leaguer (LaRoche, Morton) or close to it (Moss, Clement, Milledge).
As seen in this story, there were serious rebellions at the minor-league level because Huntington's new "pitching coordinator" Troy Buckley and "director of player development" Kyle Stark were making the seemingly unprecedented move of trying to standardize instruction at all levels so that everyone taught the same way.
Apparently the trouble came when old-school coaches were offended because seemingly unqualified young guys were brought in to the individual teams to make sure the new policies got implemented.
But I guess no matter what the Pirates will do they will be criticized for not doing the opposite, until they win major-league games.
It's not trading away decent veterans, it's trading away an entire starting lineup and half an entire roster in 18 months without receiving tons in return, without seriously upgrading your chances of winning 3-5 years from now.
Do folks here realize that, from July 1 on, the Pirates were 26-58? They were outscored by 1.6 runs a game. Their 2nd half line (for convenience) was 241/309/376 ... and 288/352/464 on the other side. They are currently as bad or worse than the Nationals ... and I don't think the Pirates have anyone as good as Ryan Z, Strasburg or, if he gets healthy, Jordan Z (not to mention the fun Adam Dunn).
McLouth is a good example. The news I hear is that he was being a baby about being asked to switch to a corner spot. What are the Pirates supposed to do about that?
Write his name in the lineup in LF or RF. He'll get used to it.
So on one hand you have guys like Milledge, LaRoche, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, B.J. Upton, etc., who are no longer prospects and have disappointed in the majors but who still have the prospect pedigree and are still very young.
But Milledge and LaRoche aren't "very young" anymore. LaRoche is 26, Milledge is 25. The "breakout" window is pretty much closed.
On the other hand, you have guys like Clement, Morton, etc. who are too old to be good prospects in the traditional sense, but who are performing well in the minors.
Clement's career minor-league OPS is 865, 860 in over 1600 AAA PAs. Morton has had a good 150 IP over the last 2 minor-league seasons but his career minor-league WHIP is 1.49 and his ERA is 4.29. None of those are really "good" performances.
I'll take that upside from a guy who's already an average-ish major leaguer (LaRoche, Morton) or close to it (Moss, Clement, Milledge).
I don't see any more upside for LaRoche -- league average is as good as he's gonna get. Pitchers are weird so I won't write off Morton. If the projection is correct, then Clement is roughly a league-average 1B. But Moss and Milledge aren't close to average, they're both 20-25 points of OPS+ short of average for their positions -- that's a lot.
I just don't know what to say. This is possibly the worst team in the majors right now, they don't have a crop of near-ML-ready prospects and, near as I can tell, aren't stocked with heaps of young talent that would give you hope that things will be substantially better 4-5 years from now. At best they traded away a dozen or so wins over 2009-10 for a dozen or so wins over 2011-2012. I just don't see that as an important shift. In the long run, it doesn't matter one way or the other -- which means I don't see why this should be considered a good strategy.
This prompted me to look at the '93 Pirate roster, to see who among them we might have thought could be part of the "next good Pirates team," without knowing that that "good team" would be still be unforeseeable 17 years later. Hm...Midre Cummings?
EDIT: I take that back...one might've guessed Al Martin (118 OPS+, age 25) and Jay Bell (124 OPS+, age 27). Man, the Pirates have sucked for a long time--the last time they were any good was before Al Martin's career "peak."
Both have also been well-above-average defenders for the Pirates, which helps.
Go look at the ZiPS projections for the Royals when you have a chance.
Anyone else think he might be pretty good next season?
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