BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The 2009 edition of the Padres improved on the 2008 team by a dozen wins, though you wouldn’t know it given that all the attention was on the Jake Peavy Sweepstakes. 2010 may very well be a repeat, with Adrian Gonzalez’s eventual destination being the primary target of media attention.

Improvement aside, the Padres are still a team with serious issues that are unlikely to be resolved in the next couple of years. The messy Moores divorce really threw the team into financial turmoil, which will continue until the divorce is finally settled and Jeff Moorad’s group completes the sale of the team. As an example of just what a mess the whole situation is, Moorad’s target date for completing the transition is in the 2012-2013 time frame.

It’s not great news for Padres fans, but the team will be very resistant towards any kind of investment in the team, even good investments.

So what do the Padres do? Pretty much all they can do is try to trade well to keep enough talent coming-through the organization until such time as they’re no longer a zombie team. A lot of the lesser teams at least have the option at aggressively trying some new things, but the Pads are going to be cheap at pretty much every level the next couple of years.

On the plus side, the team does have a good number of non-terrible relief arms. The pitching was very disappointing this season, but with a little luck, they could cobble something respectable together.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Adrian Gonzalez*         1b  28  .268  .365  .507 160 594 101 159 33  2 35 102  88 138  0  1   143 

Kyle Blanks              1b  23  .246  .334  .406 134 468  62 115 20  2 17  66  52 145  2  2   108 

Oscar Salazar            lf  32  .271  .318  .426 128 432  54 117 27  2 12  65  31  65  3  2   108 

Kevin Kouzmanoff         3b  28  .257  .305  .426 140 530  59 136 29  2 19  82  28 117  1  0   104 

Chase Headley#           lf  26  .252  .327  .383 146 540  67 136 31  2 12  61  55 159  6  2   100 

Brian Giles*             rf  39  .251  .340  .367  82 311  39  78 17  2  5  34  42  41  1  1   100 

Will Venable*            cf  27  .249  .309  .385 144 527  70 131 22  4 14  60  41 140  9  2    95 

Val Pascucci             1b  31  .217  .318  .368 124 437  54  95 19  1 15  59  61 150  3  1    94 

James Darnell            3b  23  .232  .326  .366 132 505  63 117 26  3 12  58  70 134  5  6    96 

Chad Huffman             lf  25  .233  .314  .364 132 489  63 114 24  2 12  58  50 133  3  3    91 

David Eckstein           2b  35  .264  .325  .335 103 382  48 101 19  1  2  31  27  38  4  1    87 

Eric Sogard*             2b  24  .254  .320  .352 126 520  81 132 27  3  6  55  51  77  8  6    90 

Logan Forsythe           3b  23  .218  .331  .314 136 522  73 114 18  4  8  48  82 159  7  2    84 

Anthony Gwynn*           cf  27  .258  .323  .321 132 445  68 115 14  4  2  29  42  80 18  6    83 

Craig Stansberry         3b  28  .239  .316  .346 117 422  57 101 21  3  6  41  45  93  7  6    87 

Everth Cabrera#          ss  23  .243  .318  .328 120 461  70 112 20  5  3  35  47 125 36 12    83 

Danny Putnam*            lf  27  .230  .303  .358 104 374  44  86 19  1  9  51  35 101  4  3    86 

Nicholas Hundley         c   26  .230  .288  .370 101 365  38  84 19  1 10  47  29  98  2  1    87 

Henry Blanco             c   38  .237  .308  .342  56 152  17  36  7  0  3  11  16  38  0  0    86 

Kellen Kulbacki*         rf  24  .240  .306  .346  69 263  29  63 11  1  5  31  23  63  2  2    84 

Edgar Gonzalez           2b  32  .240  .304  .362 103 246  26  59 10  1  6  25  20  64  2  4    87 

Matt Antonelli           2b  25  .228  .311  .332 106 394  56  90 17  3  6  36  43  84  6  4    85 

Mike Baxter*             rf  25  .236  .301  .338 130 488  61 115 24  4  6  55  44 109  8  5    80 

Drew Macias*             cf  27  .228  .313  .321 138 448  60 102 20  2  6  43  52  98  6  6    80 

Russ Adams*              2b  29  .238  .297  .343 105 362  44  86 16  2  6  35  30  70  4  3    80 

Vince Sinisi*            rf  28  .247  .292  .336  72 259  26  64 12  1  3  24  16  50  2  1    77 

Cedric Hunter*           cf  22  .256  .289  .338 139 598  85 153 24  5  5  63  27  68  9  5    76 

Peter Ciofrone*          3b  26  .236  .300  .323 111 403  50  95 13  2  6  40  32  86  1  2    76 

Luis Durango#            lf  24  .244  .328  .286 129 475  80 116 13  2  1  27  58  93 23 12    76 

Mike Collns              c   25  .229  .299  .317  78 271  28  62 13  1  3  27  17  59  3  2    74 

Mitch Canham*            c   25  .227  .293  .320  97 375  42  85 16  2  5  45  34  90  5  2    73 

Brett Dowdy              2b  28  .234  .285  .316 103 380  45  89 15  2  4  24  24  75  7  4    70 

Sean Kazmar              ss  25  .229  .287  .303 125 432  49  99 18  1  4  44  33  87  7  3    67 

Yamid Haad               c   32  .212  .254  .304  56 184  16  39  8  0  3  14  10  48  1  1    57 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Gonzalez*               Av/88                                                   

Blanks                  Fr/124                          Fr/124          Fr/124  

Salazar                 Pr/102  Pr/123  Pr/136          Fr/102          Fr/102  

Kouzmanoff                              Av/89                                   

Headley#                                Av/106          Av/115                  

Giles*                                                                  Av/108  

Venable*                                                Vg/75   Fr/44   Vg/75   

Pascucci                Fr/133                          Fr/135          Fr/135  

Darnell                                 Fr/153                                  

Huffman                 Av/93                           Av/93           Av/93   

Eckstein                        Fr/56           Fr/125                          

Sogard*                         Av/142                                          

Forsythe                                Av/135                                  

Gwynn*                                                  Vg/154  Vg/154  Vg/154  

Stansberry                      Av/113  Fr/137  Fr/142                          

Cabrera#                        Av/140          Av/140                          

Putnam*                                                 Fr/114  Fr/114  Fr/114  

Hundley            Fr                                                           

Blanco             Vg                                                           

Kulbacki*                                               Fr/128          Fr/128  

Gonzalez                        Av/141  Av/141                                  

Antonelli                       Fr/131  Av/131                                  

Baxter*                 Av/84                           Av/84   Pr/101  Av/84   

Macias*                                                 Vg/99   Av/124  Vg/99   

Adams*                          Av/159  Av/159  Fr/191  Av/182          Av/182  

Sinisi*                 Fr/166                          Fr/166  Pr/180  Fr/166  

Hunter*                                                 Vg/101  Av/123          

Ciofrone*                               Fr/124          Fr/127          Fr/127  

Durango#                                                Vg/172  Vg/191          

Collins            Fr   Fr/119                                                  

Canham*            Pr                                                           

Dowdy                   Av/125  Fr/125  Av/125  Pr/125  Fr/125  Fr/125  Fr/125  

Kazmar                          Av/119          Fr/116                          

Haad               Fr                                                           

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

GonzalezAdrian     1B   58%   30%    7%    3%    1%      OrtizDavid      PowellBoog      GentileJim

SalazarOscar       LF   10%   19%   21%   25%   25%         MeleSam        EnnisDel    ReynoldsCarl

BlanksKyle         1B    2%   15%   25%   41%   17%       MaasKevin   FielderPrince       LeeDerrek

KouzmanoffKevin    3B    9%   23%   31%   25%   12%     WiggintonTy       CoomerRon    HayesCharlie

HeadleyChase       LF    3%   15%   20%   30%   33%       CruzJacob     BigbieLarry       ScottLuke

GilesBrian         RF    2%   11%   17%   28%   41%     SurhoffB.J.   SlaughterEnos       WanerPaul

VenableWill        CF    9%   11%   27%   34%   19%   GeronimoCesar   DevereauxMike      WhiteDevon

PascucciVal        1B    1%    7%   11%   30%   51%   van BurkleoTy       TracyAndy    SexsonRichie

DarnellJames       3B    2%    7%   17%   35%   40%        EvansTom     HolleyBobby       HulettTim

EcksteinDavid      2B    2%    8%   16%   32%   42%      GantnerJim    TempleJohnny     RojasCookie

CabreraEverth      SS    7%   21%   38%   26%    8%   FletcherScott       UptonB.J.      ListachPat

SogardEric         2B    3%    6%   14%   30%   46%       OesterRon    TreadwayJeffCatalanottoFrank

HuffmanChad        LF    1%    2%    5%   18%   75%     JasterScott      MohrDustan     DuboisJason

GwynnTony          CF    1%    5%   19%   39%   35%    JohnsonLance    ThompsonMilt     SanchezAlex

StansberryCraig    3B    1%    3%    8%   24%   64%      FiniganJim   GonzalezEdgar      MoraMelvin

PutnamDanny        LF    0%    1%    3%   12%   84%    FreemanLaVel     LesherBrian   McMillonBilly

HundleyNick         C    2%   17%   29%   38%   14%       HayesBill       AcevesJon    HaselmanBill

BlancoHenry         C    4%   13%   30%   38%   15%    DifeliceMike    ParrishLance      GuerraMike

KulbackiKellen     RF    1%    2%    3%    6%   88%     PlattWhitey      BradyBrian       BellDerek

ForsytheLogan      3B    1%    2%    8%   28%   60%     BardenBrian       BerrySean       EdlerDave

GonzalezEdgar      2B    1%    2%    6%   22%   70%   O’RourkeFrank     NewhanDavid   DuncanMariano

AntonelliMatthew   2B    2%    3%    9%   27%   60%     BacaniDavid     BensonSteve GarrisonWebster

BaxterMike         RF    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%  KoslofskiKevin    LusaderScott      JonesChris

AdamsRuss          2B    3%    3%    7%   21%   67%       KraussTim     MalloyMarty       MartinStu

SinisiVince        RF    0%    1%    1%    4%   94%      SchulzJeff     WohlfordJim    PowellHosken

HunterCedric       CF    0%    0%    3%   21%   75%      RomeroAlex      KotsayMark   GallagherDave

MaciasDrew         CF    1%    1%    5%   22%   71%   AndersonBrady     ManningRick       PerezTimo

CiofronePeter      3B    0%    0%    1%    8%   90%     StrangeDoug       BerryMike      LyonsSteve

DurangoLuis        LF    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%    BrownDarrell       GwynnTony    LawtonMarcus

CanhamMitch         C    0%    2%    5%   27%   66%    CalvertChris      AusmusBrad    NewstromDoug

CollinsMike         C    0%    0%    3%   23%   74%      GirardiJoe      DempseyPat     BlancoHenry

DowdyBrett         2B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%    BreedingMarv        LeggGreg     HayesJackie

KazmarSean         SS    0%    1%    5%   19%   74%      LunaHector  CabreraJolbert         ColeStu

HaadYamid           C    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%      MolinaJose      BordersPat    HundleyRandy

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

GonzalezAdrian        11%     35%     51%     53%      7%      0%     72%      0%

SalazarOscar          15%      4%      7%      6%      1%      0%      0%      0%

BlanksKyle             1%      5%      2%      2%      0%      0%      2%      0%

KouzmanoffKevin        4%      0%      7%      3%      1%      0%      6%      0%

HeadleyChase           3%      3%      0%      1%      2%      0%      0%      0%

GilesBrian             6%     13%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VenableWill            4%      2%      1%      2%      0%      2%      0%      0%

PascucciVal            0%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%

DarnellJames           1%      3%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EcksteinDavid         10%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CabreraEverth          1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      7%      0%     82%

SogardEric             3%      1%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

HuffmanChad            0%      1%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GwynnTony              5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      3%      0%      2%

StansberryCraig        1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PutnamDanny            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HundleyNick            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BlancoHenry            4%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

KulbackiKellen         4%      2%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ForsytheLogan          0%      6%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%

GonzalezEdgar          3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AntonelliMatthew       0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BaxterMike             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

AdamsRuss              2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SinisiVince            5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HunterCedric           1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      5%      0%      0%

MaciasDrew             0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CiofronePeter          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DurangoLuis            1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     13%

CanhamMitch            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CollinsMike            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DowdyBrett             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

KazmarSean             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HaadYamid              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Chris Young               31   3.74   7   6  20  20   110.2   91   46  13   49   96  110 

Mat Latos                 22   3.92   6   6  19  17    82.2   80   36   7   31   58  105 

Kevin Correia             29   3.93  11  10  30  30   171.2  170   75  16   56  124  105 

Sean Gallagher            24   3.98   6   5  24  16    86.0   83   38   7   36   70  104 

Clayton Richard*          26   4.34   9  10  36  28   164.0  170   79  16   58   98   95 

Shawn Hill                29   4.46   2   2   7   7    38.1   43   19   3   11   23   93 

Aaron Poreda*             23   4.51   7   8  33  23   133.2  134   67  10   79   93   92 

Craig Italiano            23   4.67   5   7  37  17   108.0  107   56   9   68   86   89 

Wade LeBlanc*             25   4.73   8  12  32  29   156.0  158   82  24   57  113   87 

Tim Stauffer              28   4.89   6  10  29  22   134.1  150   73  16   49   84   84 

Steve Garrison*           23   4.90   3   5  16  15    75.1   82   41  11   26   43   84 

Josh Banks                27   4.96   7  11  32  23   152.1  173   84  21   43   82   83 

Will Inman                23   5.05   6  10  28  28   140.2  149   79  19   65   93   82 

Matthew Buschmann         26   5.06   6  10  31  24   138.2  156   78  18   53   79   82 

Ernesto Frieri            24   5.31   6  12  32  25   135.2  142   80  22   68   94   78 

Cesar Ramos*              26   5.49   6  12  25  22   121.1  144   74  16   54   63   75 

Josh Geer                 27   5.58   6  12  29  28   163.0  194  101  29   46   77   74 

Walter Silva              33   5.63   4   9  28  18   102.1  118   64  14   44   55   73 

Cesar Carrillo            26   5.84   3   8  19  19    94.0  110   61  13   50   44   71 

Michael Ekstrom           26   5.92   3   8  28  11    79.0  101   52  11   33   55   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Heath Bell                32   2.71   8   3  72   0    76.1   60   23   5   26   81  152 

Luke Gregerson            26   3.25   5   3  67   0    74.2   64   27   5   30   74  127 

Joe Thatcher*             28   3.33   5   3  70   0    67.2   61   25   5   24   69  124 

Mike Adams                31   3.43   2   2  51   0    57.2   50   22   5   21   54  120 

Jackson Quezada           23   3.68   2   2  29   0    29.1   27   12   2   12   24  112 

Mark Worrell              27   4.00   3   2  38   0    45.0   42   20   4   21   39  103 

Eulogio de la Cruz        26   4.06   7   7  44  13   108.2  101   49   8   59   75  102 

Edward Mujica             26   4.08   3   3  61   1    79.1   80   36  10   19   65  101 

Luis Perdomo              26   4.10   3   3  50   0    68.0   59   31   9   36   61  101 

Adam Russell              27   4.17   4   4  56   0    73.1   71   34   6   34   53   99 

Rocky Cherry              30   4.29   2   2  51   1    71.1   71   34   6   35   48   96 

Ryan Webb                 24   4.54   4   5  63   1    75.1   81   38   7   30   50   91 

Chris Britton             27   4.70   2   3  30   0    44.0   47   23   6   15   27   88 

Jonathan Ellis            27   5.11   4   7  57   0    68.2   72   39   8   40   47   81 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

BellHeath          RP       87%   12%    1%      LockwoodSkip       ShieldsScot       GossageRich

GregersonLuke      RP       62%   36%    3%         WardDuane    HernandezBuddy        AdamsTerry

ThatcherJoe        RP       51%   43%    7%   HernandezWillie   AssenmacherPaul         PlesacDan

AdamsMike          RP       51%   39%   10%        GreggKevin       FrasorJason      LeskanicCurt

QuezadaJackson     RP       37%   43%   20%     PenaAlejandro         InnisJeff        NealBlaine

YoungChris         SP       56%   38%    6%       GardnerMark      PersonRobert     MartinezRamon

LatosMatthew       SP       45%   45%   10%   GonzalezEnrique        MadsonRyan         EatonAdam

CorreiaKevin       SP       37%   55%    7%   StottlemyreTodd        BensonKris      JohnsonJason

GallagherSean      SP       37%   48%   15%           GottJim        GaudinChad        HarrisGreg

WorrellMark        RP       25%   44%   31%       BulgerJason      SerranoJimmy  FredricksonScott

de la CruzEulogio  RP       15%   55%   30%       CornellJeff        StuperJohn         MillsAlan

BurkeGreg          RP       19%   55%   26%        GardnerLee      SchmackBrian  PichardoHipolito

MujicaEdward       RP       17%   54%   29%      MelendezJose         BostHeath      KrawczykJack

PerdomoLuis        RP       13%   49%   38%     HedrickJustin         MeyerJack         JonesJeff

RussellAdam        RP       11%   55%   34%    DehoyosGabriel     ShepherdKeith         FioreTony

CherryRocky        RP        8%   43%   49%      BumsteadMike         FioreTony        GwynMarcus

RichardClayton     SP       15%   64%   21%    SauerbeckScott          OttoDave         McGrawTom

HillShawn          SP       30%   36%   34%         HoltChris     EricksonScott        MorganMike

PoredaAaron        SP       10%   53%   38%      WilsonTrevor        ClarkBryan     AndersonJimmy

WebbRyan           RP        4%   40%   56%        TroutSteve   DeLosSantosRich         DeweyMark

ItalianoCraig      SP        2%   34%   64%        LangdonTed       PacellaJohn        LumleyMike

BrittonChris       RP        9%   34%   58%         SabelErik     LundbergDavid          LynchJoe

LeblancWade        SP        5%   47%   48%        ViolaFrank        SimonsDoug      PainterLance

StaufferTim        SP        3%   39%   58%           PughTim  TankersleyDennis        ReddingTim

GarrisonStevenson  SP        6%   35%   59%  RobertsonJeriome         JonesMike        HenryButch

BanksJosh          SP        2%   37%   61%        TowersJosh     AtchisonScott       LincolnMike

InmanWilliam       SP        1%   30%   68%         VoigtPaul    BettendorfJeff         LeroyJohn

BuschmannMatthew   SP        2%   29%   70%        SmithChris       AndujarLuis           DrewTim

EllisJonathan      RP        1%   19%   80%        WilmetPaul     GaillardEddie      CameronKevin

FrieriErnesto      SP        1%   18%   82%        HudsonLuke      FletcherPaul    BaerlocherRyan

RamosCesar         SP        0%   12%   88%       CromerJason     ProchaskaMike   CumberlandChris

GeerJoshua         SP        0%   10%   90%           CoxRyan         GeeveDave        TowersJosh

SilvaWalter        SP        1%   13%   86%         BenesAlan        DickeyR.A.         OrtizRuss

CarrilloCesar      SP        0%    7%   92%      WoodyardMark       StemleSteve         HunterJim

EkstromMichael     SP        0%    3%   97%        WrightMatt    FarnsworthJeff     BalsleyDarren

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

BellHeath               83%       99%       93%       4%       93%

GregersonLuke           54%       94%       76%       1%       93%

ThatcherJoe             51%       91%       84%       4%       93%

AdamsMike               42%       86%       65%       5%       70%

QuezadaJackson          37%       71%       30%       9%       85%

YoungChris              22%       78%       39%       0%       49%

LatosMatthew            17%       69%        4%       1%       79%

CorreiaKevin             7%       69%        4%       2%       82%

GallagherSean           13%       61%       22%       0%       88%

WorrellMark             25%       60%       39%       0%       79%

de la CruzEulogio       10%       61%        4%       0%       91%

BurkeGreg               14%       61%       15%       3%       64%

MujicaEdward            13%       59%       22%      49%       47%

PerdomoLuis             13%       56%       52%       0%       53%

RussellAdam             11%       52%        4%       0%       83%

CherryRocky              6%       38%        2%       0%       82%

RichardClayton           1%       40%        0%       1%       76%

HillShawn               10%       39%        3%      34%       73%

PoredaAaron              1%       27%        3%       0%       94%

WebbRyan                 3%       31%        1%       1%       69%

ItalianoCraig            1%       22%       18%       0%       88%

BrittonChris             6%       34%        1%      12%       50%

LeblancWade              0%       18%        2%       0%       10%

StaufferTim              0%       13%        0%       1%       44%

GarrisonStevenson        1%       15%        0%       5%       30%

BanksJosh                0%       11%        0%      14%       28%

InmanWilliam             0%        7%        0%       0%       31%

BuschmannMatthew         0%        7%        0%       0%       30%

EllisJonathan            1%       12%        2%       0%       56%

FrieriErnesto            0%        3%        1%       0%       10%

RamosCesar               0%        2%        0%       0%       36%

GeerJoshua               0%        1%        0%      12%        5%

SilvaWalter              0%        4%        1%       1%       32%

CarrilloCesar            0%        1%        0%       0%       26%

EkstromMichael           0%        2%        2%       1%       39%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

GonzalezAdrian   .260 .352 .472 2354  8762   1378   2276  472  24  447 1351  1204   2021   1   5  128

KouzmanoffKevin  .251 .300 .413 1536  5764    619   1448  307  21  195  856   312   1273  11   4   98

GilesBrian       .287 .394 .491 2003  7122   1193   2042  444  59  297 1142  1260    916 112  48  133

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

YoungChris         98    82     0  3.95    286    286 1574   1319    196    679   1366    105

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 25, 2009 at 03:24 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Jobu is silent on the changeup Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:17 PM (#3396623)

Second...

Best...

Projection...

Kyle Blanks...

Cleveland...

Spiders...

2. Autobahn Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:20 PM (#3396627)

Is Adrian Gonzalez really going to be still on this team come 2010?

3. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:22 PM (#3396629)

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

4. Nasty Nate Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:31 PM (#3396641)

ZIPS has sponsors now?

5. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3396645)

Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

Anthony Gwynn? Nicholas Hundley? ZiPS -- the most respectful projections in the game!

I'd make fun of that offense but he hasn't run the A's yet.

The A's have an offense?

6. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:34 PM (#3396650)

The A's have an offense?

Oh, a wise guy, huh?

7. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:35 PM (#3396654)

I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."

Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage.

There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.

8. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 25, 2009 at 05:55 PM (#3396682)

Now we know that ZiPS is Brian Giles' mom.

I believe that means Dan is Giles' grandfather.

Seriously, though, Giles is one year removed from a .306/.398/.456 line in a pitchers' park, and ZiPS projects him to have a 69% chance of being 40th percentile or worse among right fielders. It's not in love with him.

9. ColonelTom Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:00 PM (#3396696)

Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee. I'll take the over on that .246/.334/.406 projection.

10. Davo Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3396728)

evereth cabreras projection seems low i think he will do better than that evereth cabrera came on strong last year also his list of comps is very strange what is b j upton doing on there

11. Davo Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3396734)

I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!

12. phatip Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:32 PM (#3396749)

I can't believe this team was 1 inning away from the playoffs in just 2007... Peavy's the only major player they lost!

Don't forget Trevor Hoffman, Khalil Greene (who hit 27 Hr's that year, & Mike Cameron. That team really doesn't compare to the 2009 version.

13. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 25, 2009 at 06:33 PM (#3396753)

Kyle Blanks' second and third-best comps are pretty nice - Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee.

Yeah, but I think he's more likely to have the career arc of the first comp, especially in this ballpark. The good news is that he didn't strike out all that much in the minors; the bad news is that he didn't slug .500 in the PCL and had more HR than he did other EBH last season, which is a sign of a serious fly-ball hitter with good but not great power. He got killed by Petco, which I would expect.

-- MWE

14. philly Posted: November 25, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3396882)

I am liking the new meme for success in baseball now. We used to have things like "good pitching beats good hitting." More recently we've had things like "keep your rotation healthy". And of course "exploit market inefficiencies" and "have a huge payroll."Now the key to baseball success is -- make sure the owner has a stable marriage. There will be no competitive balance in baseball unless Hank and Hal get hit with simultaneous divorce notices.

Now that you mention it, I think marital strife has already hit the Yankees. Wasn't there a son-in-law who was being groomed to take over until he was arrested for DUI with his girlfriend in the car? Only after he was pushed out of the picture did Hank and Hal move to the front of the line.

15. frenchredsox Posted: November 25, 2009 at 09:33 PM (#3396996)

NO Greg Burke,shame really as he was pretty good in '08 ;)

16. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 26, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3397113)

There is a Greg Burke projection (you can see he made ODDIBE), but I must not have put it in the main section.

17. Juan V Posted: November 26, 2009 at 12:52 AM (#3397118)

I can see why the Red Sox are interested in Adrian Gonzalez.

18. BobbyS Posted: November 26, 2009 at 05:12 AM (#3397207)

So Gwynn's improvement at a prime age...isn't expected to be legit (especially his BB%/OBP)? And is he really that bad at fielding a ball?

I expected a little better out of Cabrera, nothing stellar or antyhing.

19. OBSLCommish Posted: November 26, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3397218)

How about a projection for Dexter Carter?

20. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: November 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (#3397251)

Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93 (I include six because most teams end up using [at least] that many). That's well above average.

6 top relievers (about the number that see high-leverage innings): 152, 127, 124, 120, 112, 103. Again, that's well above average.

Optimal starting lineup by OPS+ with defense:
C Hundley 87/Fr
1B Gonzalez 143/Av
2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)
SS Cabrera 83/Av
3B Kouzmanoff 104/Av
LF Salazar 108/Fr
CF Gwynn 83/Vg
RF Giles 100/Av

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

It's only on paper, but this really does not look like that bad a team, despite the absence of even a second plus hitter.

21. morineko Posted: November 27, 2009 at 03:54 AM (#3397497)

Is it just me or does this team actually not look so bad?

Well, you could probably drop Correia and his 105 ERA+ right out of there, as many signs indicate that if he doesn't take a lowball offer, he'll be non-tendered. There's also a good chance that Bell may get dumped. The Moores divorce is the gift that keeps on giving to the other 29 teams.

22. rlc Posted: November 27, 2009 at 06:43 AM (#3397517)

No Radhames Liz?

23. DCW3 Posted: November 27, 2009 at 06:47 AM (#3397518)

2B Eckstein 87/Fr (is he a free agent?)

Eckstein's signed with San Diego through 2010.

24. ugen64 Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:22 AM (#3397888)

rlc - he'll probably get projected with the O's.

25. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:46 AM (#3397898)

Yeah, I'm always lagging a bit in posting, so I still had Liz's projection with Baltimore. I'll get all caught up with Thanksgiving week stuff Monday.

26. DKDC Posted: November 28, 2009 at 03:46 AM (#3397899)

6 top starters by ERA+: 110, 105, 105, 104, 95, 93

Those top 6 starters are projected to only make 118 starts combined for a reason. There's some serious injury risk there, and the Padres are likely going to have to dig a lot deeper than that.

This lineup is somewhat below average both offensively and defensively, but not dramatically so.

All that slightly below average adds up. Compare those OPS+ numbers to league averages, and you have one above average hitter and one above average fielder.

This isn't going to be one of the worst teams in the league, but it's probably a mid 70s win team without much upside.

27. Shilzzz Posted: November 29, 2009 at 06:07 AM (#3398446)

Tony gwynn is really luis durango's second player comp? As in senior? Struck me as odd

28. Ken015 Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:29 PM (#3398519)

I am curious how DeHoyos might do if he actually saw some time in SD.

29. Ken015 Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3398523)

Also, nice projection for Quezada even though he didn't pitch last season. I never could find an article on what type of injury he had, does anyone know?

30. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 29, 2009 at 02:48 PM (#3398527)

I'll add the requests for the next build.

Durango's second comp is the lesser Gwynn.

31. Saberseams Posted: December 03, 2009 at 02:15 PM (#3401955)

I'd be interested to see a projection for Sawyer Carroll. I would think he'd at least get a cup o' coffee next year in the show.

32. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 28, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3448393)

Hey Dan, I know you're busy but I'd be curious to see your take on the Kouzmanoff/Hairston deal. Thanks!

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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

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