BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 07, 2010

2010 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

You get your hands on a Ferrari GT 250 from the 1950s. You painstakingly restore the car to its original form, from tires to roof. Now, it’s time to get the engine up to snuff.

Something’s not quite right! So, you put in an engine you found in a 1984 Dodge Dart at the junk yard and after doing your best to install the engine, using duct tape, honey, and twist ties from packages of hot dog rolls, that darn car just will not start! What’s the problem? You have no idea.

You might not be a very good mechanic, but you might be Brian Sabean. The Giants have a ridiculous starting rotation, anchored by Lincecum, perhaps the leading candidate for best starting pitcher of the teens, Cain, one of the best number twos around, one of the best prospects around in Bumgarner, and the interesting Sanchez. Sure, Zito’s overpaid, but if he’s your 5th starter, your rotation’s probably pretty good.

The offense is not, mainly consisting of Sandoval and the Seven Dwarves. A team mediocre everywhere and a playoff-ready rotation just screams to overpay for an actual slugger, but Mark DeRosa appears to have been the big target, though the team could still figure out a way to avoid using their best prospect, Buster Posey. My policy of leaving players on their old team until a definite signing (or the final disk in the spring) has the hilarious side-effect of showing what an amazing idea it was to non-tender Ryan Garko because he had a slump.

No projection for Angel Villalona. Now, a lot of things can go wrong with a prospect’s career from low-A to the majors, but being arrested for homicide is not a common malady. If you’re a professional athlete and absolutely feel you need to kill someone, it’s smarter to make the pile first. Better lawyers.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Pablo Sandoval#          3b  23  .320  .368  .516 157 597  85 191 43  4 22 110  44  81  2  2   129 

Ryan Garko               1b  29  .285  .356  .460 129 435  44 124 23  1 17  67  34  71  0  0   113 

Fred Lewis*              lf  29  .274  .352  .427 129 391  68 107 22  7  8  46  44  98  9  4   104 

Mark DeRosa              3b  35  .273  .345  .434 121 433  63 118 24  2 14  73  44  88  2  1   104 

Nate Schierholtz*        rf  26  .289  .325  .459 131 425  55 123 27  6 11  62  20  68  4  2   103 

John Bowker*             lf  26  .269  .338  .434 137 475  62 128 25  4 15  76  47 100  4  3   102 

Aaron Rowand             cf  32  .273  .335  .431 132 476  59 130 31  1 14  72  32 104  3  1   100 

Buster Posey             c   23  .263  .343  .398 126 467  67 123 25  1 12  67  53  83  3  1    95 

Freddy Sanchez           2b  32  .296  .331  .413 126 506  72 150 32  3  7  60  25  67  1  1    92 

Edgar Renteria           ss  33  .280  .336  .388 116 443  55 124 23  2  7  52  38  63  6  2    90 

Juan Uribe               3b  30  .269  .311  .442 122 398  43 107 24  3 13  58  24  77  1  2    95 

Travis Ishikawa*         1b  26  .253  .316  .409 125 403  50 102 21  3 12  63  34 107  2  1    89 

Matt Downs               2b  26  .273  .317  .407 118 472  63 129 29  2 10  67  27  67  8  4    89 

Jesus Guzman             1b  26  .271  .320  .395 120 479  55 130 23  3 10  64  31  87  1  2    87 

Bengie Molina            c   35  .271  .298  .424 117 432  38 117 22  1 14  80  15  49  0  0    87 

Kevin Frandsen           2b  28  .271  .328  .380 127 421  53 114 21  2  7  48  23  40  4  3    86 

Andres Torres#           cf  32  .254  .315  .397 107 343  50  87 15  8  6  36  29  88  9  3    86 

Rich Aurilia             1b  38  .266  .312  .393  83 214  18  57 10  1  5  32  15  34  0  0    84 

Stephen Holm             c   30  .253  .320  .373  79 233  25  59 13  0  5  23  21  45  0  0    82 

Ryan Rohlinger           3b  26  .254  .315  .382 132 484  60 123 28  2 10  70  36  89  2  2    83 

Eugenio Velez#           lf  28  .266  .309  .393 128 448  62 119 23  8  6  54  27  78 20  9    83 

Joe Borchard#            rf  31  .234  .298  .397  92 282  36  66 15  2  9  42  24  76  1  1    81 

Brett Pill               1b  25  .258  .300  .381 132 504  60 130 30  1 10  83  28  86  3  2    78 

Clay Timpner*            cf  27  .265  .312  .361 123 441  53 117 19  4  5  47  29  62  7  6    77 

Conor Gillaspie*         3b  22  .254  .321  .331 133 508  55 129 26  2  3  62  49  80  1  2    73 

Emmanuel Burriss#        2b  25  .270  .323  .332 106 371  52 100 13  2  2  34  25  49 23  9    73 

Roger Kieschnick*        rf  23  .234  .281  .385 137 546  68 128 28  6 14  86  33 149  4  1    73 

Darren Ford              cf  24  .231  .303  .318 115 446  70 103 17  5  4  41  44 121 25 10    64 

Eli Whiteside            c   30  .241  .281  .357  77 241  24  58 11  1  5  32  11  59  1  1    67 

Francisco Peguero        cf  22  .248  .276  .323  92 371  40  92 13  3  3  38  12  79 13  3    57 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Sandoval#          Fr   Av/89           Fr/95                                   

Garko                   Av/81                                                   

Lewis*                                                  Vg/141  Pr/167  Av/141  

DeRosa                  Av/78   Fr/115  Av/93           Av/78           Av/78   

Schierholtz*                                            Av/83           Av/83   

Bowker*                 Av/142                          Av/112  Pr/134  Av/98   

Rowand                                                          Av/89           

Posey              Vg                                                           

Sanchez                         Av/86                                           

Renteria                                        Fr/100                          

Uribe                           Av/74   Av/96   Av/96                           

Ishikawa*               Vg/123                                                  

Downs                   Av/117  Av/117  Av/117  Pr/133  Av/117          Av/117  

Guzman                  Av/117  Pr/185  Pr/166          Av/117                  

Molina             Av                                                           

Frandsen                        Av/111  Av/111  Fr/139  Av/120          Av/120  

Torres#                                                 Vg/126  Av/44   Vg/115  

Aurilia                 Av/101          Fr/113                                  

Holm               Fr                                                           

Rohlinger                               Vg/97                                   

Velez#                          Pr/160                  Vg/186  Av/179          

Super Joe#                                              Av/119          Av/119  

Pill                    Av/112                                                  

Timpner*                                                Av/125  Av/125  Av/125  

Gillaspie*                              Av/151                                  

Burriss#                        Vg/144          Av/138                          

Kieschnick*                                                             Av/79   

Ford                                                            Av/183          

Whiteside          Av                                                           

Peguero                                                         Vg/159  Vg/134  

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

SandovalPablo      3B   53%   33%   10%    3%    1%LindstromFreddie   RamirezAramis  LansfordCarney

GarkoRyan          1B    7%   24%   27%   32%   10%     SheetsLarry   MorelandKeith    JohnsonLamar

SchierholtzNate    RF    5%   14%   21%   31%   29%       GloadRoss       BassKevin     CarterSteve

LewisFred          LF    5%   17%   23%   31%   24%        BumbryAl   TuckerMichael   BarrettJohnny

DeRosaMark         3B   10%   23%   29%   25%   13%        BoyerKen      GarnerPhil    DeCincesDoug

RowandAaron        CF   13%   19%   33%   26%    9%      AllenEthan    BrandtJackie    WilliamsDick

BowkerJohn         LF    2%   10%   19%   33%   37%  SpilborghsRyan     HughesKeith   TuckerMichael

SanchezFreddy      2B   11%   14%   21%   28%   26%      AdairJerryGrudzielanekMark     TrilloManny

PoseyBuster         C    6%   37%   35%   20%    2%      SuzukiKurt       RamosJohn         SaxDave

UribeJuan          3B    2%   10%   19%   32%   37%      TrubyChris      FelizPedro     SeabolScott

RenteriaEdgar      SS   10%   17%   32%   26%   15%   FletcherScott   UrbanskiBilly       RojekStan

DownsMatt          2B    4%   10%   18%   33%   35% PhillipsBrandon     LansingMike GarrisonWebster

MolinaBengie        C    3%   16%   29%   35%   17%      LyonsBarry          DiazBo        BooneBob

IshikawaTravis     1B    0%    1%    3%   25%   72%     JacksonRyan LankfordDerrick       DeedsDoug

TorresAndres       CF    1%    5%   22%   43%   29%    WebsterMitch      MorenoOmar      LittleMark

GuzmanJesus        1B    0%    0%    1%   15%   83%         BelkTim     JacksonRyan   TolentinoJose

FrandsenKevin      2B    2%    5%   12%   29%   52%       HajekDaveWhiteheadBurgess  StennettRennie

VelezEugenio       LF    0%    1%    3%   11%   85%        SmithIra      VarshoGary   MartinezManny

AuriliaRich        1B    0%    0%    1%   12%   87%     JordanBrian       WoodJason     PhilleyDave

HolmSteve           C    1%    8%   24%   45%   22%     TackettJeff     BennettGary   McDonaldKeith

RohlingerRyan      3B    0%    1%    5%   23%   71%     AlfaroJason    GrindellNate     SeitzerBrad

PillBrett          1B    0%    0%    0%    5%   95%    NavarreteRay      WestJeremy     McGowanSean

BorchardJoe        RF    0%    1%    1%    7%   91%      HowittDann     BufordDamon       SmithMark

BurrissEmmanuel    2B    0%    0%    2%   12%   86%    CastroBernieMachadoAlejandro  ReynoldsHarold

TimpnerClay        CF    0%    1%    2%   12%   85%   SchumakerSkip    EllisonJason   GlanvilleDoug

KieschnickRoger    RF    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%        MartinAl      PoeCharles     HamiltonJon

GillaspieConor     3B    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%   CiofronePeter      AybarWilly   BaldirisAarom

WhitesideEli        C    0%    0%    2%   13%   85%   MosqueraJulio    CharlesFrank    ColbertCraig

FordDarren         CF    0%    0%    0%    5%   95%       CurryMike      DuncanJeff    ScottLorenzo

PegueroFrancisco   CF    0%    0%    0%    2%   98%    HaynesNathan     McGeeWillie      MoranJavon

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B  30 HR   30 SB

SandovalPablo         79%     36%     61%     27%     43%      2%     15%      0%

GarkoRyan             29%     24%     16%      5%      0%      0%      3%      0%

SchierholtzNate       36%      4%     13%      2%      1%     12%      0%      0%

LewisFred             17%     20%      5%      2%      0%     19%      0%      0%

DeRosaMark            18%     15%      9%      3%      0%      0%      1%      0%

RowandAaron           16%      7%      7%      1%      4%      0%      1%      0%

BowkerJohn            11%      7%      4%      1%      0%      3%      1%      0%

SanchezFreddy         42%      6%      3%      1%      4%      0%      0%      0%

PoseyBuster            5%      9%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

UribeJuan             12%      1%     10%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%

RenteriaEdgar         23%      8%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DownsMatt             14%      1%      1%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

MolinaBengie          18%      1%     10%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%

IshikawaTravis         3%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

TorresAndres           6%      3%      2%      0%      0%     32%      0%      0%

GuzmanJesus           10%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FrandsenKevin         13%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VelezEugenio           8%      0%      0%      0%      0%     32%      0%      4%

AuriliaRich           20%      5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HolmSteve              8%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RohlingerRyan          2%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

PillBrett              3%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%

BorchardJoe            1%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BurrissEmmanuel       11%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     12%

TimpnerClay            7%      1%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%

KieschnickRoger        0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     10%      0%      0%

GillaspieConor         1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WhitesideEli           3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FordDarren             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      4%      0%     24%

PegueroFrancisco       2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Tim Lincecum              26   2.68  16   6  34  33   225.0  177   67  13   78  260  162 

Matt Cain                 25   3.51  13   9  34  34   217.2  197   85  20   80  179  124 

Madison Bumgarner*        20   4.05   8   6  28  26   133.1  137   60  12   42   86  107

Jonathan Sanchez*         27   4.15  10  11  30  28   156.0  141   72  17   77  169  105 

Randy Johnson*            46   4.33   6   8  21  20   114.1  116   55  17   32   98  100 

Barry Zito*               32   4.48  11  14  32  32   184.2  183   92  21   83  132   97 

Ramon Ortiz               34   4.77   5   8  33  17   126.1  137   67  17   39   83   91 

Kevin Pucetas             25   4.80   6  10  28  27   144.1  161   77  16   46   74   91 

Joe Martinez              27   5.16   5   9  24  21   111.2  134   64  12   38   64   84 

Henry Sosa                24   5.37   2   4  15  14    63.2   72   38   9   31   36   81 

Matt Kinney               33   5.55   6  13  27  26   146.0  167   90  28   48   97   78 

Clayton Tanner*           22   5.72   6  13  26  24   122.2  146   78  17   62   68   76 

Steve Hammond*            28   6.24   6  16  29  27   145.2  178  101  27   69   78   70 

Steve Johnson             22   6.93   4  16  27  25   124.2  149   96  28   83   83   63 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Sergio Romo               27   3.21   5   3  52   0    53.1   44   19   5   19   54  136 

Brian Wilson              28   3.47   5   3  67   0    70.0   61   27   5   30   72  125 

Jeremy Affeldt*           31   3.48   2   1  74   0    64.2   56   25   5   29   58  125 

Eugene Espineli*          27   4.08   3   3  54   0    64.0   69   29   5   19   36  107 

Alex Hinshaw*             27   4.10   2   2  60   0    59.1   50   27   6   37   64  106 

Osiris Matos              25   4.52   2   3  49   0    61.2   65   31   7   22   45   96 

Brandon Medders           30   4.65   3   4  59   0    69.2   71   36   8   37   51   93 

Dan Runzler*              25   4.72   2   3  55   0    55.1   51   29   6   41   53   92 

Waldis Joaquin            23   4.76   3   5  53   0    62.1   63   33   5   39   48   91 

Merkin Valdez             28   5.04   1   2  42   1    44.2   47   25   5   26   35   86 

Steve Palazzolo           28   5.22   2   4  33   0    50.0   54   29   6   28   32   83 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

LincecumTim        SP       99%    1%    0%    BlackwellEwell          RijoJose     PascualCamilo

RomoSergio         RP       64%   32%    4%        JenksBobby          DavisRon      LeskanicCurt

WilsonBrian        RP       59%   35%    5%         WardDuane        RadatzDick         SelmaDick

AffeldtJeremy      RP       50%   43%    7% ChristiansenJason       LaRocheDave       OroscoJesse

CainMatt           SP       85%   15%    0%         SeleAaron        LeaCharlie        MillerWade

BumgarnerMadison   SP       47%   47%    6%        MulderMark          DukeZach        TroutSteve

EspineliEugene     RP       24%   51%   25%         MeauxRyan      JeffcoatMike       CasianLarry

HinshawAlex        RP       24%   54%   22%     WilliamsMitch    AlmanzaArmando       WagnerBilly

SanchezJonathan    SP       44%   48%    7%      LangstonMark      JohnsonRandy       KoufaxSandy

JohnsonRandy       SP       29%   49%   22%      KoosmanJerry        WellsDavid       FinleyChuck

ZitoBarry          SP       18%   62%   20%      BohanonBrian     AlvarezWilson       HamptonMike

MatosOsiris        RP       10%   49%   41%       MabeusChris     PattersonDave       AcevedoJose

MeddersBrandon     RP        8%   42%   51%      DoughertyJim     SaladinMiguel     GryboskiKevin

RunzlerDan         RP        9%   42%   50%    AlmanzaArmando        ClarkeStan      JohnsonTyler

JoaquinWaldis      RP        8%   39%   54%     VasquezCarlos      WigginsScott      JacksonGrant

OrtizRamon         SP       18%   43%   40%       SparksSteve          RossMark      YoshiiMasato

PucetasKevin       SP        9%   55%   36%        JohnsonJoe     FireovidSteve         BeggChris

ValdezMerkin       RP        5%   25%   70%          SmithRoy       ReichertDan     HendersonRyan

MartinezJoe        SP        5%   39%   56%      SorensenLary      MoehlerBrian  MacdonaldMichael

PalazzoloSteve     RP        3%   24%   73%         GreenSean    VaughanWilliam         BauerGreg

SosaHenry          SP        4%   26%   70%        MilackiBob    JacobsenLandon         KylesStan

KinneyMatt         SP        2%   19%   79%    MartinezDennis       HellingRick     TollbergBrian

TannerClayton      SP        0%   13%   87%        GramanAlex      KozlowskiBen       GeorgeChris

HammondSteven      SP        0%    2%   98%     ProchaskaMike          TeutNate      RobertsChris

JohnsonSteven      SP        0%    0%  100%      BaylissJonah     KnightBrandon        RomanoMike

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

LincecumTim             91%      100%       97%       1%       99%

RomoSergio              56%       92%       76%       7%       80%

WilsonBrian             52%       93%       85%       1%       91%

AffeldtJeremy           50%       91%       48%       0%       83%

CainMatt                43%       98%       20%       0%       82%

BumgarnerMadison        13%       72%        1%       5%       80%

EspineliEugene          19%       69%        1%      20%       87%

HinshawAlex             24%       66%       90%       0%       72%

SanchezJonathan         13%       73%       91%       0%       61%

JohnsonRandy             7%       51%       37%      17%       29%

ZitoBarry                2%       42%        4%       0%       57%

MatosOsiris             10%       52%        5%       4%       59%

MeddersBrandon           5%       36%        5%       0%       59%

RunzlerDan               6%       36%       71%       0%       64%

JoaquinWaldis            5%       39%       12%       0%       83%

OrtizRamon               5%       34%        7%      15%       38%

PucetasKevin             1%       28%        0%       4%       55%

ValdezMerkin             3%       23%       15%       0%       63%

MartinezJoe              0%       16%        0%       3%       62%

PalazzoloSteve           2%       21%        1%       0%       61%

SosaHenry                1%       12%        0%       0%       40%

KinneyMatt               0%        5%        2%       3%        5%

TannerClayton            0%        2%        0%       0%       32%

HammondSteven            0%        0%        0%       0%        4%

JohnsonSteven            0%        0%        1%       0%        1%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

CainMatt          186   157     0  3.68    518    516 3285   2944    336   1291   2750    118

LincecumTim       198    85     0  3.25    441    437 2913   2335    196   1067   3331    134

SanchezJonathan    99   114     0  4.48    358    292 1639   1513    184    845   1759     97

ZitoBarry         193   179     0  4.11    496    494 2988   2767    324   1294   2215    107

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

RenteriaEdgar    .283 .340 .394 2293  8760   1261   2477  469  28  150 1015   769   1244 290 110   92

SanchezFreddy    .294 .329 .409 1072  4098    544   1204  258  23   56  488   200    506  13  10   93

RowandAaron      .274 .334 .435 1660  5583    757   1529  347  18  172  753   357   1182  68  28   98

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 07, 2010 at 04:56 AM | 131 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Page 2 of 2 pages < 1 2

101. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:14 PM (#3431418)

Actually, this reminds me a lot of some angry emails I got about Dan Murphy's projection.

The same arguments - OH MY GOD CANT YOU SEE HE CLICKED! And HES CLEARLY A SPECIAL PLAYER THAT NERDS DON'T UNDERSTAND (Not you, Sam). Turns out he wasn't a 313/397/473 guy after all!

102. zenbitz Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3431428)

You nerds don't understand the power of the human spirit.

Brock clearly has no less than a 1 in 100,000,000,000 chance of hitting 60 HRs next year.

103. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:31 PM (#3431434)

Seriously, you guys should see some of the e-mails I get. If I wasn't already behind on things I need to do, I'd do a regular Reader Mailbag feature.

104. JPWF13

Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3431440)

The less said about the whole Daniel Murphy thing, the better . . . .

You know, now he's going to hit .290/.350/.475....

I remember one of the old Bill James abstracts, where he mentioned that he projected someone to hit .220, the dude hit .280, James said he was wrong, but the next year (and every year after) the guy hit .220 or less...

Then came Rob Deer, who hit .232/.336/.494, and James said, "nope, not falling for it, if he could hit .232 he'd be useful, but he's going to hit .180...

A couple years later James said, OK I give up, he improved, he's better than he was in the minors, Deer immediately cratered and hovered around the mendoza line for the rest of his career.

105. xanthan Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:52 PM (#3431448)

Brock's 265/344/334 is actually a bit better than I expected. I don't know if that's a bad thing or not.

106. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 07, 2010 at 11:59 PM (#3431452)

first of all fausto carmona is on great pitcher look at his wins and era and 2007 with cleveland. so in one year became on the a-list of pitchers and fausto is in demand now, now he is going to the hall of fame with home run king adrian beltre. and he also worked with sabathia and cliff lee who was great by the way. and tim belcher on his fastball. so he worked with alot of great pitchers. and was great in the minors. and fausto was the best thing on the team and the critics agree. so fausto is a way better pitcher then matt cain. im responding to the post from dan about at least matt cain has some experience under his belt but fausto is hotter and a better pitcher and he is getting alot more awards then matt. so please did you see matts last game against the padres. need i say more the game sucked as hell and even the critics said the worst pitching of the century. it only had 20 thousand fans in the stadium now thats sad.

107. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:03 AM (#3431565)

The early part of this thread reminds me of one of my favorite mgl rants (of which there are many):

I’ve mentioned this before, but if a guy hits .850 (in a league where the average player hits .750) in his first year (or in any year, and that’s all we know), and he gets better in talent (say by 20 OPS points), how many teams do you think understand that he is supposed to hit around .820 the next year, a “regression” of 30 points?

For those of you who are just casual readers, let me repeat that: If a player hits .850 (OPS) his first year and we KNOW (G-d comes down and tells us) that his true talent is going to increase the next year by 20 points (maybe because he is on the up-slope of his aging curve, like Martin presumably is, but it doesn’t matter why), then we expect him to hit around:

.820 the next year. Yes, we expect that a player who gets better in true talent will hit 30 points less than he hit the year before!

You know, I never forgot the lesson.

108. Meatwad Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3431572)

dan i hope you charge tropic of cancer lots of money for the dmb build discs

109. EddieA Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:29 AM (#3431574)

I saw the Bond projection in 100 and thought "Barry would be better than that"

110. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:47 AM (#3431579)

Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390

Dan, you need to watch him play!! The real odds are about 1 in 32.

111. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2010 at 05:52 AM (#3431582)

I remember one of the old Bill James abstracts,

Or BPro who kept calling for Marcus Giles to get more playing time. He gets some and kinda stinks and there might have been rumors of attitude problems too. So for the 2003 BPro, they finally give in and admit Cox is smarter than they are. And of course he goes out and rips the cover off the ball.

112. Shock has moved on Posted: January 08, 2010 at 07:57 AM (#3431603)

Seriously, you guys should see some of the e-mails I get. If I wasn't already behind on things I need to do, I'd do a regular Reader Mailbag feature.

Getting angry at the maker of a projection system because you don't like a projection of a particular player seems awfully strange to me -- but it's been a strange thread.

Keep 'em coming Dan; can't wait to see Vernon Wells's projection! (groan)

113. ColonelTom Posted: January 08, 2010 at 02:55 PM (#3431735)

Letting Garko go was sheer idiocy, given the Giants' weaknesses at 1B and the outfield corners. (On a related note, Garko should probably have some sort of DMB defensive ratings in LF and RF.)

114. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:03 PM (#3431741)

Is 'sad face' a rating?

115. ColonelTom Posted: January 08, 2010 at 03:18 PM (#3431764)

Better than the ROFL smiley for Adam Dunn, I suppose.

116. FirstInning Posted: January 08, 2010 at 08:38 PM (#3432154)

Dan, any idea what Tony Pena Jr is going to do? I'm one of the few people who saw his relief appearance a couple of years ago and I must say I'm intrigued. He could end up in the pen if a lot of things break right.

117. Unintentionally_Ignorant Posted: January 09, 2010 at 01:54 PM (#3432708)

ZiPS reports a lot of wacky things. Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390

So, you're saying there's a chance!

118. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 09, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3432730)

ZiPS reports a lot of wacky things. Bond's odds of hitting 60 home runs in 2010:

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390

Dan, how do you get that result? Clearly you're not running 1751 trillion simulations of the season. If you are running simulations, I can't imagine a PC could handle more than 1 million and still deliver results in a timely fashion.

Why are you getting such "precise" results?

119. Mushroy Posted: January 09, 2010 at 05:06 PM (#3432762)

Hey Dan-thanks again for ZiPS.
I've been mulling this over for a long time and I wanted to ask you-how much effort do you put into predicting W's? Does ZiPS project it based entirely on the projected peripherals and IP or is the team offense and defense included somehow? I've always operated on the assumption that you wouldn't devote too much energy to such an unpredictable stat, but I'd love to know how much does go into it.

Along the same lines, does anybody have any thoughts on what stats you would look at to predict a high (or higher) winning percentage? I'm trying to rank teams based on how much they're projected to help their SP's get wins but there are so many variables. (Obviously this is a fantasy question-I'm in a 5x5 where a lot of us tend to value players similarly so I'm looking for some new tricks with some of the luckier categories).
Thanks again.

120. SABRJoe Posted: January 11, 2010 at 03:47 AM (#3433675)

According to San Fran CBS:

"SOURCE: GIANTS SIGN AUBREY HUFF
Quick blog here...got a tip from a source that the Giants have signed left-handed first baseman Aubrey Huff to a one-year, $3 million contract. That will almost surely set the Giants line-up for 2010 with Pablo remaining at third base. Kim Coyle reported yesterday that the Giants were still talking with Adam LaRoche, but my source now says that deal is dead, but can't say for sure. Huff stumbled last season to .241, 15, 85, but if he can return to his numbers of 2008 (32, 108, .304) this could be a steal. Stay tuned."

DeRosa to LF?

121. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 11, 2010 at 04:14 AM (#3433691)

Why are you getting such "precise" results?

Well, it's not really that precise, but if there's a chance that, for example, so-and-so develops into a "true" 40 home-run hitter, there's a range of probabilities around that (which ZiPS looks for), even if a 60 home-run season is never the mean projection.

122. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 11, 2010 at 04:21 AM (#3433695)

I've been mulling this over for a long time and I wanted to ask you-how much effort do you put into predicting W's? Does ZiPS project it based entirely on the projected peripherals and IP or is the team offense and defense included somehow? I've always operated on the assumption that you wouldn't devote too much energy to such an unpredictable stat, but I'd love to know how much does go into it.

Wins are very volatile.

Previous years run totals regressed towards mean is a pretty good predictor of team offense. Number of seasons tend to be predictive (bullpen quality is a big fact, obviously, but decisions are also a residue of endurance, which tends to be predictive).

Win totals for starters work similarly to teams, though the exponent is higher.

123. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 11, 2010 at 03:28 PM (#3433861)

Saw Neal in the Fall League at Strasburg's first start and he had an outstanding game.

1. Looks like he's got a very strong throwing arm.

2. After Strasburg clowned several hitters backdooring that slurve thing of his, Neal kept his hands back and roped it into left field for a hit.

3. Made a couple of outstanding running catches in left and nearly made a third.

Now one game is one game and I'm not about to change policies on evaluating players from one game. But just from a standard stat geek perspective, when you see how much he hit, your first concern would be his defensive ability. And it sure looked like that it wasn't an issue for him.

Sabean really confuses me as his organization seems to do all the difficult things well, and can't seem to do the easy thing which is put together a reasonable offense. A little known fact was that he was scheduled to be one of the guys at the infamous stats/scouts roundtable but pulled out. Pat Gillick was there as an observer but didn't participate.

124. zenbitz Posted: January 11, 2010 at 09:35 PM (#3434480)

Sabean really confuses me as his organization seems to do all the difficult things well, and can't seem to do the easy thing which is put together a reasonable offense.

I think this can be explained in a very simple way. Sabean uses BA instead of OBP. Sometimes he will end up getting guys with a decent OBP because they have high batting averages, and sometimes he will get guys with decent walk rates by sheer chance (Durham, Burks, a few others over the years).

Notice also that the Giants pitching staffs over the last several years have been near the top in walks allowed - no matter if their pitching has been good or bad overall. I suspect, but cannot proove - that there is an organizational philosophy around "nibbling" rather than challenging hitters.

It's obvious on the offensive side, that the organization values aggressive hackers.

I have a feeling that having Bonds getting thousands of walks, often in weak lineups has colored his position on this. Know Sabeans' media personality a bit, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is a major competitive advantage.

125. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 12, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3435619)

I have a feeling that having Bonds getting thousands of walks, often in weak lineups has colored his position on this. Know Sabeans' media personality a bit, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks this is a major competitive advantage.

Are you saying that Sabean learned that Bonds getting walks was what lead to the weak lineups? And thus should be avoided?

126. zenbitz Posted: January 12, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3436025)

I think he saw a situation where people would take the bat out of the hands of his best player - often his only good hitter (obviously, the Kent years were one of the exceptions).

And I think that while most analysis indicates that he was walked "too much" opposing managers kept walking him - hence it must have been a good strategy - hence walks are overrated. It's really more of a gut feeling on my part more than anything tangible.

GM Psychoanalysis - worst blog idea evah?

127. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 12, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3436030)

No worse than doing Kremlinology. :)

Clearly, Sabean doesn't know the value of the walk. It would be pretty amusing (in a tragic way, since I'm a Giants fan), that Sabean's exposure to one of the greatest batters of all time, who had no problem using the walk as a weapon reinforced his view that walks are not great outcomes.

128. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 15, 2010 at 08:34 AM (#3438186)

This thread was hilarious.

129. Mike Emeigh

Posted: January 15, 2010 at 01:23 PM (#3438209)

It would be pretty amusing (in a tragic way, since I'm a Giants fan), that Sabean's exposure to one of the greatest batters of all time, who had no problem using the walk as a weapon reinforced his view that walks are not great outcomes.

Actually, it's not at all surprising. The Giants, for the most part, did a poor job of leveraging Bonds's walks into runs, and the lesson someone might take from that is that walks tend to be issued in situations where they are far less valuable than statistical analysis would have you believe. (Ripple effects from walks, e.g. extra PAs for your better hitters, are not often considered in that context.)

-- MWE

130. Zoppity Zoop Posted: June 04, 2010 at 03:20 PM (#3550316)

Looks like ZiPS is doing better than the Allied Runzler League so far.

131. The Essex Snead Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3630181)

Hey Dan Runzler! 19 BBs in 30 IP! He's still got it!

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2010 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

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