BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 26, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

With the Angels losing some important pieces and the Mariners wheeling and dealing to add Cliff Lee and taking a chance on Milton Bradley, the Mariners are really looking like the favorite in the AL West.

The M’s aren’t a perfect team, however, so one can’t count the Angels out. Seattle has an impressive defense, but the team really misses that one big bat in the middle of the lineup. Bradley has an amazing 2008 season with the Rangers, but he can hardly be counted on to repeat that in 2010, even if he’s a model citizen. Another big bullpen arm would also be a huge bonus, but at this point, the M’s look like a team that’ll finish 1st in ERA (which they did without Cliff Lee), 10th-12th in runs scored, and hope to edge out the Angels or sneak a Wild Card spot with 92-95 wins or so.

However, the winter isn’t done yet and while the Mariners don’t appear to be one of Jason Bay’s super-secret suitors, they could still make a move for a big bat. Nothing’s been rumored, but the Mariners landing Cliff Lee came out of nowhere.

Even if the Mariners don’t make the playoffs, Jack Zduriencik and Company turning an organization run on the basis of the thoughts of Buzzie’s Other Idiot Son into a legitimate contender in a year is a mighty impressive achievement.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Ichiro Suzuki*           rf  36  .325  .368  .414 132 570  82 185 22  4  7  44  37  66 24  5   110 

Milton Bradley#          rf  32  .254  .371  .421 106 347  54  88 17  1 13  42  60  91  4  2   113 

Russell Branyan*         1b  34  .227  .329  .463 105 326  46  74 15  1 20  58  46 123  1  0   110 

Chone Figgins#           3b  32  .280  .373  .362 127 497  85 139 21  4  4  41  75  99 36 14    99 

Adrian Beltre            3b  31  .264  .315  .426 120 477  63 126 27  1 16  73  33  84  6  1    97 

Dustin Ackley*           2b  22  .261  .348  .383 115 494  83 129 21  3 11  62  63  82 12  7    96 

Mike Sweeney             dh  36  .266  .327  .402  69 229  23  61 13  0  6  35  18  32  0  0    94 

Franklin Gutierrez       cf  27  .266  .324  .408 135 466  64 124 22  1 14  56  37 108  8  3    95 

Jose Lopez               2b  26  .275  .308  .430 150 589  69 162 33  2 18  86  26  69  2  2    96 

Chris Shelton            3b  30  .243  .324  .374 117 428  51 104 21  1 11  62  50 123  1  1    87 

Mike Carp*               1b  24  .240  .325  .365 137 509  58 122 24  2 12  63  58 130  0  1    85 

Ken Griffey Jr. *        dh  40  .214  .320  .372 105 355  40  76 18  1 12  55  55  79  0  0    85 

Michael Saunders*        lf  23  .252  .309  .397 114 401  69 101 16  3 12  38  31 106  7  3    88 

Brad Nelson*             dh  27  .239  .310  .386 130 415  52  99 20  1 13  61  43  96  4  3    86 

Ryan Langerhans*         lf  30  .224  .324  .369 130 331  49  74 17  2  9  46  48 107  4  3    86 

Endy Chavez*             lf  32  .275  .322  .356  99 247  28  68 10  2  2  22  18  30  7  2    82 

Kenji Johjima            c   34  .254  .298  .385  97 335  32  85 17  0  9  42  15  36  1  1    82 

Rob Johnson              c   26  .266  .316  .356 123 455  50 121 23  0  6  47  32  68  6  5    81 

Bryan LaHair*            1b  27  .239  .300  .379 129 494  56 118 25  1 14  69  42 141  0  2    81 

Adam Moore               c   26  .251  .304  .356 117 447  43 112 21  1  8  55  29  99  0  1    77 

Jack Hannahan*           3b  30  .221  .312  .342 131 412  44  91 21  1  9  51  53 128  2  2    76 

Matt Tuiasosopo          3b  24  .221  .303  .349  96 375  55  83 19  1  9  48  38 126  2  0    75 

Callix Crabbe#           2b  27  .242  .326  .327 116 392  55  95 16  4  3  37  47  66  9  7    76 

Jack Wilson              ss  32  .251  .299  .345 109 391  47  98 20  1  5  47  25  50  2  2    72 

Bill Hall                3b  30  .212  .280  .365 130 419  54  89 23  1 13  64  39 146  2  2    72 

Josh Wilson              ss  29  .234  .296  .337 113 350  39  82 17  2  5  40  25  71  5  3    70 

Carlos Triunfel          ss  20  .260  .301  .338  56 231  27  60 10  1  2  23  12  37  8  4    71 

Guillermo Quiroz         c   28  .232  .286  .343  59 181  15  42  8  0  4  24  13  38  0  0    65 

Ezequiel Carrera*        cf  23  .239  .315  .304 107 418  56 100 12  3  3  31  43 104 17  9    67 

Alex Cintron#            2b  31  .248  .279  .321  78 218  19  54  8  1  2  21   9  38  2  1    61 

Oswaldo Navarro          ss  25  .230  .291  .288 122 417  43  96 16  1  2  35  31  98  4  3    56 

Greg Halman              cf  22  .182  .235  .314 131 510  53  93 17  1 16  57  26 239  9  4    46 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Ichiro!*                                                        Vg/63   Vg/99   

Bradley#                                                Fr/119          Fr/119  

Branyan*                Av/132          Fr/86                                   

Figgins#                        Av/120  Vg/91                                   

Beltre                                  Ex/95                                   

Ackley*                         Fr/140                  Av/100  Fr/100  Vg/100  

Sweeney                 Pr/121                                                  

Gutierrez                                               Ex/79   Ex/123  Ex/79   

Lopez                   Vg/131  Vg/131                                          

Shelton                 Av/111          Fr/151                                  

Carp*                   Fr/143                          Pr/145                  

Griffey*                                                Fr/133  Pr/111  Fr/133  

Saunders*                                               Vg/122  Av/132  Vg/144  

Nelson*                 Av/102          Pr/127          Fr/127          Fr/127  

Langerhans*                                             Vg/44   Fr/110  Vg/44   

Chavez*                                                 Ex/63   Ex/63   Ex/63   

Johjima            Av                                                           

Johnson            Av                                                           

LaHair*                 Av/89                           Av/44           Av/44   

Moore              Av                                                           

Hannahan*               Av/82   Av/98   Vg/82                                   

Tuiasosopo                      Fr/150  Av/125                                  

Crabbe#                         Av/139  Av/139          Av/139  Av/164  Av/139  

Wilson                                          Vg/89                           

Hall                            Fr/125  Vg/104          Av/104                  

Wilson                          Av/121  Av/121  Fr/142                          

Triunfel                        Av/157          Fr/157                          

Quiroz             Av                                                           

Carrera*                                                Vg/123  Av/167  Vg/123  

Cintron#                        Fr/85   Fr/85   Fr/85                           

Navarro                         Av/122  Av/122  Av/129                          

Halman                                                  Av/162  Av/162  Av/162  

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

SuzukiIchiro       RF   22%   34%   20%   14%    9%         RiceSam   SlaughterEnos        BrockLou  

BradleyMilton      RF   10%   27%   25%   24%   14%  EstalellaBobby     GrubbJohnny        DrewJ.D.

BranyanRussell     1B    8%   23%   23%   30%   16%     KingmanDave    JohnsonCliff    BalboniSteve

FigginsChone       3B   10%   23%   27%   25%   15%       BufordDon    DillingerBob      GrohHeinie

BeltreAdrian       3B    8%   15%   21%   27%   29%       HaleSammy   CastillaVinny      WallachTim

GutierrezFranklin  CF    9%   14%   30%   30%   16%      BarnesJohn      ByrdMarlon    CardenalJose

LopezJose          2B   13%   15%   21%   27%   24%    BaergaCarlos   MazeroskiBill  LubratichSteve

SweeneyMike        DH    1%    4%    7%   35%   52%   KluszewskiTed       DropoWalt        WertzVic

AckleyDustin       2B   11%   17%   24%   30%   18%     BrowneJerry     WeeksRickie       OrtizJose

SaundersMichael    LF    0%    2%    5%   16%   76%       BellDerek      TolanBobby   SimmonsNelson

ChavezEndy         LF    0%    2%    4%   11%   84%   BiittnerLarry        MilesDee      OrsulakJoe

SheltonChris       3B    1%    4%   11%   29%   55%    PerezEduardo     LeoneJustin        BallJeff

NelsonBrad         DH    0%    0%    1%   13%   85%        SnowJ.T.    WhiteDerrick  StahoviakScott

CarpMike           1B    0%    0%    1%   14%   85%    TraxlerBrian   RogowskiCasey        CoxSteve

JohjimaKenji        C    1%    7%   20%   42%   30%     AlomarSandy    SevereidHank   HemsleyRollie

GriffeyKen         DH    0%    1%    3%   13%   83% YastrzemskiCarl      MusialStan   McCoveyWillie

LangerhansRyan     LF    0%    2%    4%   12%   81% RadmanovichRyan  CarpenterBubba   DellucciDavid

LahairBryan        LF    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%  CepickyMatthew      MohrDustan      MoutonLyle

OwensJerry         CF    0%    1%    6%   25%   68%     RobertsDave      GoodwinTom     LewisDarren

MooreAdam           C    0%    3%   10%   37%   50%      GroteJerry       WilsonDan     GilGeronimo

TuiasosopoMatt     3B    0%    0%    1%    8%   91%   EberweinKevin    ThompsonAndy     WiggintonTy

TriunfelCarlos     SS    0%    0%    7%   36%   57%      ThonDickie     SchunkJerry      MejiaOscar

WilsonJack         SS    1%    2%   10%   26%   61%      GomezChris van RossumChris  NewsomeSkeeter

CrabbeCallix       2B    0%    0%    2%   11%   87%       YoungEric       CruzJulio         HerrTom

HannahanJack       3B    1%    0%    3%    9%   87%   FribergBernie    GiannelliRay      KlausBilly

JohnsonRob          C    0%    2%    4%   19%   74%       WilsonDan       SpohrerAl      SewellLuke

WilsonJosh         SS    1%    2%    6%   22%   69%       WineBobby       LewisMark      ReesePokey

HallBill           3B    1%    0%    1%    5%   93%      PresleyJim      QuinlanTom       HiattPhil

CarreraEzequiel    CF    0%    0%    1%    6%   93%   BergeronPeter  SingletonChris   GreenbergAdam

QuirozGuillermo     C    0%    0%    1%    9%   89%       MelvinBob       KratzErik     HeintzChris

CintronAlex        2B    0%    0%    1%    2%   97%     MalloyMarty       McKayDave        SojoLuis

NavarroOswaldo     SS    0%    0%    1%    2%   97%    AndersonKent         ColeStu    SchmidtAugie

HalmanGregory      CF    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%     MalloryMike   MillerRandall   WilsonPreston

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

SuzukiIchiro          80%     43%      3%      5%      0%      2%      0%     26%

BradleyMilton          6%     47%      4%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BranyanRussell         1%      6%     24%      6%      0%      0%      7%      0%

FigginsChone          23%     46%      0%      1%      0%      4%      0%     79%

BeltreAdrian          10%      3%      7%      2%      1%      0%      3%      0%

GutierrezFranklin     11%      3%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LopezJose             16%      1%      5%      1%      9%      0%      5%      0%

SweeneyMike           16%      8%      3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AckleyDustin           6%     14%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

SaundersMichael        3%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ChavezEndy            20%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SheltonChris           2%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NelsonBrad             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CarpMike               0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JohjimaKenji           4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GriffeyKen             0%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LangerhansRyan         0%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LahairBryan            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

OwensJerry             8%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     24%

MooreAdam              2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

TuiasosopoMatt         0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

TriunfelCarlos        10%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WilsonJack             4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CrabbeCallix           1%      3%      0%      0%      0%      2%      0%      0%

HannahanJack           1%      2%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JohnsonRob             2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WilsonJosh             2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HallBill               1%      0%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CarreraEzequiel        1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      1%

QuirozGuillermo        2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

CintronAlex            6%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NavarroOswaldo         1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HalmanGregory          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Felix Hernandez           24   3.02  15   7  34  34   232.2  194   78  19   79  216  144 

Erik Bedard*              31   3.12   7   3  18  18   106.2   83   37  11   40  110  143 

Cliff Lee*                31   3.42  15   9  33  32   216.0  209   82  19   46  163  128 

Ryan Rowland-Smith*       27   4.05   9   8  27  25   164.1  157   74  19   58  102  110 

Ian Snell                 28   4.41  10  11  34  34   193.2  192   95  20   89  142  101 

Yusmeiro Petit            25   4.86   7   9  30  24   124.0  126   67  23   40   83   92 

Jason Vargas*             27   4.98   7   9  30  24   141.0  150   78  22   50   86   90 

Garrett Olson*            25   5.13   7  11  36  27   149.0  150   85  23   73   98   87 

Lucas French*             24   5.29   7  12  29  26   158.1  181   93  22   67   86   84 

Gaby Hernandez            24   5.36   7  11  26  26   139.1  153   83  22   56   75   83 

Doug Fister               26   5.38   7  11  32  25   147.1  173   88  24   41   79   83 

Andrew Baldwin            27   5.40   6  11  31  23   153.1  182   92  24   43   76   83 

Dan Cortes                23   5.46   6  11  26  25   125.1  126   76  16   92   84   82 

Chris Seddon*             26   5.60   6  12  28  27   141.1  155   88  25   71   78   80 

Ryan Feierabend*          24   5.62   4   7  19  18    97.2  119   61  15   34   49   79 

Luis Munoz                28   6.22   5  13  28  26   136.0  158   94  27   69   71   72 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

David Aardsma             28   3.61   5   3  64   0    67.1   55   27   7   35   70  124 

Mark Lowe                 27   3.82   5   4  72   0    80.0   73   34   8   32   66  117 

Mike Koplove              33   4.10   3   3  50   0    59.1   56   27   6   27   41  109 

Brandon Morrow            25   4.15   6   5  50  12   104.0   90   48  12   61   92  107 

Shawn Kelley              26   4.20   3   3  39   0    45.0   43   21   6   15   36  106 

Sean White                29   4.21   2   2  51   0    62.0   63   29   5   24   27  106 

Robert Manuel             26   4.37   4   4  55   0    70.0   70   34  10   24   45  102 

Miguel Batista            39   4.42   4   5  64   0    75.1   73   37   8   41   54  101 

Ricky Orta                25   4.54   2   3  34   2    39.2   38   20   5   22   31   98 

Chris Jakubauskas         31   4.57   4   5  27   9    80.2   81   41  11   27   44   98 

Randy Messenger           28   4.63   3   4  62   0    72.0   79   37   8   23   37   96 

Kanekoa Texeira           24   5.03   6   8  47   4    82.1   84   46  10   47   52   89 

Tyler Johnson*            29   5.17   0   1  22   0    15.2   16    9   2    7   10   86 

Edward Paredes*           23   5.66   4   7  57   2    68.1   73   43  10   44   41   79 

Anthony Varvaro           25   5.82   2   5  56   0    60.1   58   39   8   62   50   77 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

HernandezFelix     SP       99%    1%    0%      GoodenDwight      ClemensRoger       DrysdaleDon

BedardErik         SP       95%    4%    1%         GuidryRon      JohnsonRandy      LangstonMark

LeeCliff           SP       96%    3%    1%        SmileyJohn          OjedaBob        ViolaFrank

AardsmaDavid       RP       48%   45%    7%     GarreltsScott         DurenRyne          CruzJuan

LoweMark           RP       36%   54%    9%       RobergeBert      HeilmanAaron         BaezDanys

Rowland-SmithRyan  SP       56%   41%    3%         AbbottJim       WoodallBrad         KarlScott

KoploveMike        RP       22%   50%   28%       AcevedoJuan         BrowerJim        MurrayDale

MorrowBrandon      RP       23%   60%   17%      MarmolCarlos       BrancaRalph       FlorieBryce

KelleyShawn        RP       25%   50%   25%       HoytLa Marr        NelsonGene      MelendezJose

WhiteSean          RP       24%   47%   28%         MillerBob         ProlyMike      ClevengerTex

ManuelRobert       RP       15%   56%   29%       DaleCharles     TaglientiJeff         DeweyMark

SnellIan           SP       30%   62%    8%     JenningsJason       ClementMatt       PrietoAriel

BatistaMiguel      RP       20%   46%   35%        McMahonDon  HernandezRoberto   CarraraGiovanni

OrtaRicky          RP       15%   41%   45%       BorowskiJoe         JonesJeff       KoploveMike

JakubauskasChris   SP       13%   50%   36%      ValdezSergio      SorensenLary         ReedJerry

MessengerRandy     RP        9%   45%   46%          McNabTim      PhillipsTony        ArnoldTony

PetitYusmeiro      SP       13%   55%   32%       BoydOil Can      McGeheeKevin        BonesRicky

VargasJason        SP        6%   54%   40%      PainterLance        KrivdaRick       SirotkaMike

TexeiraKanekoa     RP        3%   39%   58%      AardsmaDavid        EyreWillie       DrummondTim

OlsonGarrett       SP        5%   49%   46%        WelshChris        VavrekMike      O’ConnorMike

JohnsonTyler       RP       25%   28%   47%      MacDonaldBob          MahayRon      WillisTravis

FrenchLuke         SP        2%   38%   60%        BikoThomas       JacksonZach       RundlesRich

HernandezGaby      SP        2%   34%   64%  ChristiansenClay       BurkettJohn       IrelandEric

FisterDouglas      SP        2%   36%   62%       TottenHeath        TowersJosh     WithemShannon

BaldwinAndrew      SP        2%   34%   64%        TowersJosh       TottenHeath      HarikkalaTim

CortesDaniel       SP        2%   30%   69%     MitchellLarry         DeveyPhil      LewisDerrick

SeddonChris        SP        0%   20%   80%     HampsonJustin       FasseroJeff       BrohawnTroy

FeierabendRyan     SP        2%   24%   75%   LivingstonBobby     PhillipsHeath        RojasChris

ParedesEdward      RP        1%   13%   86%       HeltonKeith      RohlicekRuss         BottGlenn

HallJosh           SP        2%   16%   83%  WilloughbyClaude      EstrellaLuis       EstrellaLeo

VarvaroAnthony     RP        1%   10%   90%        LangdonTed          BeneBill         BanksJosh

MunozLuis          SP        0%    5%   95%      RobertsBrett   CarraraGiovanni      BouknightKip

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

HernandezFelix          82%      100%       63%       1%       91%

BedardErik              74%       98%       84%       2%       68%

LeeCliff                58%       99%       41%      67%       90%

AardsmaDavid            40%       88%       85%       0%       61%

LoweMark                30%       84%       26%       1%       71%

Rowland-SmithRyan       15%       79%        0%       2%       53%

KoploveMike             16%       66%        3%       0%       68%

MorrowBrandon           16%       72%       45%       0%       57%

KelleyShawn             25%       68%       19%      13%       44%

WhiteSean               20%       61%        1%       7%       80%

ManuelRobert            11%       65%        0%       6%       40%

SnellIan                 4%       60%        5%       0%       69%

BatistaMiguel           17%       56%        9%       1%       58%

OrtaRicky               15%       46%       16%       0%       45%

JakubauskasChris         8%       53%        0%       6%       38%

MessengerRandy           6%       42%        1%      10%       55%

PetitYusmeiro            1%       29%        1%       4%        4%

VargasJason              1%       23%        0%       1%       16%

TexeiraKanekoa           2%       30%        0%       0%       43%

OlsonGarrett             0%       18%        0%       0%       18%

JohnsonTyler            25%       39%        6%      13%       60%

FrenchLuke               0%       10%        0%       0%       29%

HernandezGaby            0%       10%        0%       0%       15%

FisterDouglas            0%        9%        0%      13%        8%

BaldwinAndrew            0%        9%        0%      13%       13%

CortesDaniel             0%        8%        1%       0%       41%

SeddonChris              0%        4%        0%       0%        7%

FeierabendRyan           0%        5%        0%       3%       24%

ParedesEdward            0%       11%        0%       0%       34%

HallJosh                 1%       10%        0%       0%       54%

VarvaroAnthony           1%        8%       26%       0%       51%

MunozLuis                0%        1%        0%       0%        3%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

HernandezFelix    247   125     0  3.17    550    552 3726   3210    344   1234   3430    140

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

SuzukiIchiro     .327 .371 .422 2015  8651   1322   2826  323  84  112  682   570    913 440 101  113

GriffeyKen       .286 .371 .541 2668  9691   1654   2772  518  41  624 1823  1290   1755 188  71  137

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 26, 2009 at 05:58 PM | 77 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:26 PM (#3422352)

I don't see Ken Griffey Jr in your projections here, although he's listed under ODDIBE as a DH.

2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3422354)

Zduriencik has made this much better, of course, but I still don't think it's more than an 82-86 win team as currently constituted.

The lineup's has got only 3 above average hitters, one of whom is completely unreliable, and no power to speak of. For a team reliant on run prevention, the rotation after Hernandez/Lee isn't impressive.

They badly need a 1B and a LF who can hit, and another reliable SP.

Should be a wild 4-way race in the AL West.

3. A triple short of the cycle

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3422355)

Should be an interesting race in the A.L. West this season. Angels should come back to the pack. There is talk that the Mariners are making a move, but I'm not sure they will even better than the A's. The M's were last in the division by Pythag record last year - five back of Oakland. Texas is the team that is starting to scare me given their highly regarded farm system.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3422356)

OK, Griffey there now.

5. philly Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:44 PM (#3422357)

You also need to replace Morrow with Brandon League.

Kind of interesting that ZiPS has Ichiro with more career hits than Griffey.

6. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:44 PM (#3422358)

Does the League/Morrow trade work toward the 'big bullpen arm' or is it a wash?

7. lonestarball Posted: December 26, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3422363)

Dan -- Do you see Seattle and Anaheim as clearly a notch above the Rangers right now?

8. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:08 PM (#3422370)

Yeah, I did the M's pitcher projections before the League/Morrow trade. You can see the League stats in the entry for the trade. I think it's kinda a wash - both League and Morrow could be very good, but there are questions.

I would put M's and Angels above Rangers now (sorry), though not by a massive amount. I rather have the Rangers bullpen than the Mariners bullpen, but the Rangers offense isn't overwhelming. I can see all 3 teams possibly winning 90 games, but the Mariners and Angels being more likely.

The A's, I really don't see in the race.

9. Esoteric Posted: December 26, 2009 at 07:23 PM (#3422381)

Zduriencik has made this much better, of course, but I still don't think it's more than an 82-86 win team as currently constituted.

This. I wish I could say that the Mariners have elbowed their way into 'favorite' status, but it's not true, not yet. My number-crunching gets me to the high side of snapper's ranger, a legit 86 wins. Now I think I'm weighting the effect of their incredible defense a bit too lightly, but I also don't think that it can get them to 90+ wins (even considering the weakened state of the A's & Angels) as is.

Some points to remember:

1.) The Mariners' 1B situation is still unresolved. Branyan was mooted as a returning FA by most, but he and his bad back (which took him out for the last 6 weeks of '09) are holding out for a two year deal that the Mariners are unwilling to give him. I think it's still more likely than not that he returns (probably on a 1 yr + vesting/mutual option deal) but I could also see the M's going after someone like Mat Gamel from the Brewers instead. The eventual result is going to matter a lot in calculating the team's offense: Branyan was nearly a one-man offense for the M's during the first half of the season last year, and in such a power-starved lineup he'll be missed.

2.) League/Morrow: League may well be the "big bullpen arm" we're looking for, assuming his '09 is repeatable. League's heavy reliance on a new "splange" pitch last year actually bodes well for this, or at least as well as any datum can given the volatility of relievers. See Matthew Carruth at Lookout Landing for more on this. As for Morrow going out, I'd be interested in seeing how ZiPS projects him, with the understanding that he's going to be switching back to the starter role in Toronto. My suspicion is that it will not go well given Morrow's complete lack of quality secondary pitches, but who knows? Stranger things have happened.

3.) Screw ZiPS, Szymborski. Ichiro's getting to 3,000, and he's gonna do it in a non-embarrassing way. I know this is true because I dearly wish it to be so.

4.) I love Jack Zduriencik.

10. Shock has moved on Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:11 PM (#3422400)

It's funny to read Mariners fans talking about League's "step forward" last year when Toronto fans pretty much hated him. "In comes League, bye bye lead..."

He has always nasty stuff, though. It's fun to watch when batters swing and miss.

Edit: I'm not saying you guys are wrong, just that it's amusing.

11. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:16 PM (#3422407)

Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the order of teams you're going in?

12. So Taguchi is My Sensei Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3422415)

Dan, is there any rhyme or reason to the order of teams you're going in?

That would be the alphabet, backwards.

13. greenback does not like sand

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:30 PM (#3422416)

I believe it's reverse alphabetical order by team nickname.

Hmm, no mention of nickname in #12. So I'm not sure of the Coke rules here.

14. sportznut Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:32 PM (#3422418)

That would be the alphabet, backwards.

Okay, thanks.

15. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:36 PM (#3422421)

Yeah, I do teams in a different order every other year and then reverse it the 2nd year.

16. Shock has moved on Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:42 PM (#3422423)

And I, for one, appreciate that. :-)

17. frannyzoo Posted: December 26, 2009 at 08:54 PM (#3422433)

The highest OPS+ is only 113, and that's to be accomplished by a widely acknowledged crazy person. There's no real resolution at the highly offensive important 1B and LF positions, and the team has already distinguished itself as trade crazy.

It's crazy...and I like it. A little.

But it's like that poker game where you've quickly drunk all the liquor and you have to make the call: do we stop now or make another trip to the liquor store?

Crazy Z! Make the second trip! Jason Bay may be another way of saying Richie Sexson, but there's just gotta be more OPS here. Plus, Bay's Canadian, which I hear is close to Seattle.

Ideally, this team would sign Elmer Flick or Paul Waner, but I hear they're dead. Ross Youngs too. It's a shame.

So Bay or something like him might be the only 2010-era facsimile available. Make it happen, Crazy Z.

18. Walt Davis Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:03 PM (#3422436)

Those are some weird comps for Bradley. Bobby Estalella -- not saying it's wrong, just entertaining.

Felix's comps are a real cautionary tale.

The A's, I really don't see in the race.

Which I assume means ZiPS will project them to 94 wins. :-)

EDIT: and who plays C on the Ms?

19. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:10 PM (#3422443)

Those are some weird comps for Bradley. Bobby Estalella -- not saying it's wrong, just entertaining.

I bet you're looking at the wrong Estalella!

20. Juan V Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:42 PM (#3422464)

Lovin' that Felix career projection. Hopefully it includes a WBC ring or two.

21. Juan V Posted: December 26, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3422466)

Ken Griffey Jr. * dh 40 .214 .320 .372 105 355 40 76 18 1 12 55 55 79 0 0 85

I feel old.

22. Walt Davis Posted: December 26, 2009 at 11:51 PM (#3422524)

I didn't know there was another Estalella. I'm guessing he was muy blanco. :-)

And I know it's hitting-based and therefore sensible, but the Endy Chavez -- Larry Biittner comp amuses me. I might have had more defensive range and baserunning speed than Biittner.

23. JoeHova Posted: December 27, 2009 at 12:09 AM (#3422532)

and who plays C on the Ms?

Rob Johnson, with Adam Moore backing him up. Not the best situation but maybe Moore will break out. They also signed Eliézer Alfonzo to a minor league deal in case Johnson is not recovered from the 3 surgeries he had in October in time to begin the season, or if Moore isn't ready.

24. PreservedFish Posted: December 27, 2009 at 03:07 AM (#3422579)

Rob Johnson, with Adam Moore backing him up.

These sound like the fictional players that computer games fill yoru minor league roster out with.

25. Esoteric Posted: December 27, 2009 at 03:17 AM (#3422581)

I wish Rob Johnson was a fictional player.

26. tropicofcancer Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:25 AM (#3422591)

Can someone explain ZIPS to me? It makes absolutely zero sense. Every guy who has a breakout season is projected to regress, and moreover, this dude never projects anyone to have a breakout season, which invariably occurs with at least two players on every team. It's like the dude wants everyone to suck.

27. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:35 AM (#3422593)

Ummm, he's modeling realistic expectations based on historical data, not trying to pull crazy optimistic #### out of his ass to try to look smart when 1 out of 10 of them actually happen?

28. Frisco Cali Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:43 AM (#3422595)

It's like the dude wants everyone to suck.

Mr. Zips is an warped, bitter old man, kinda like Mr. Potter in Its A Wonderful Life. We all hope that one day he will come around to our worldview where everyone should be projected to have a breakout season. Especially the players on our fantasy teams.

29. Zoppity Zoop Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:43 AM (#3422609)

What breakout seasons should ZIPS have projected as the best guess for a player? Breakout seasons are, by definition, unlikely.

As we can see, ZIPS does in fact address breakout and breakdown seasons, which is the whole point of the ODDIBE stuff.

30. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 27, 2009 at 05:49 AM (#3422610)

I'd never heard of the senior Estalella, but his BR Bullpen writeup makes him sound pretty interesting.

31. RollingWave Posted: December 27, 2009 at 07:41 AM (#3422630)

how does Erik Bedard still gets that kind of projection??? even accounting for the lack of playtime isn't that way too optimistic?

and uhhh, I take it that ZIPS think Felix will run away with the Cy Young (which wouldn't surprise to be sure)

32. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2009 at 11:46 AM (#3422644)

Greinke was 142 ERA+ in 226 IP

33. DetroitMichael Posted: December 27, 2009 at 12:26 PM (#3422646)

There's a nice entry on the older Bobby Estalella in the New Bill James Historical Abstract. He was a dark-skinned Cuban, kind of skirting the baseball color line not an injury prone player, but his playing time was uneven as a result, which helps explain why he shows up as Milton Bradley's top comp.

I found Bedard's top 3 comps most amusing considering that Langston and Randy Johnson were once traded for each other.

34. Justin T's pasta pass was not revoked Posted: December 27, 2009 at 01:55 PM (#3422657)

Bill Hall is projected to go from a 58 OPS+ to a 72. That's a breakout.

35. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2009 at 02:38 PM (#3422662)

how does Erik Bedard still gets that kind of projection??? even accounting for the lack of playtime isn't that way too optimistic?

Well, he's been better than that 2 of the last 3 years, including 2009 with his constantly injured arm. Bedard is a great pitcher.

and uhhh, I take it that ZIPS think Felix will run away with the Cy Young (which wouldn't surprise to be sure)

ZiPS has Felix leading the league in ERA, just nudging out Greinke (I don't have all projections done, but I did all the contenders for ESPN Mag - I figured I didn't need to project Jeremy Sowers or Gio Gonzalez for that task).

ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.

36. Travolta19 Posted: December 27, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3422714)

Dan,
Is that a typo on Jose Lopez's defense at 2B? I thought he was regarded as fair to average defensively.

37. 3744nsheffield Posted: December 27, 2009 at 07:09 PM (#3422804)

What's the over/under on Bradley getting 350 at bats?

38. Shock has moved on Posted: December 27, 2009 at 07:38 PM (#3422830)

What's the over/under on Bradley getting 350 at bats?

Um...6.5?

(What?)

39. Alex_Lewis Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:13 PM (#3422846)

The only thing I can say with any certainty re: ZiPS is that it is rarely correct regarding Ichiro.

40. Greg K Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:25 PM (#3422850)

What makes ZiPS so wonderful is that it provides an excellent starting point to discuss players, and if there is some reason to believe a player will deviate from historical norms you can mentally adjust the projection.

And Ichiro is certainly a player who has never seen historical norms eye to eye.

41. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:41 PM (#3422856)

Oops, should be AV/131. I put VG for both 1B and 2B.

42. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:44 PM (#3422859)

<I>The only thing I can say with any certainty re: ZiPS is that it is rarely correct regarding Ichiro.<I>

It looks like with Cameron and Scutaro, Ichiro is another point of disagreement between ZiPS and CHONE. .742 vs. .782 OPS!

43. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 27, 2009 at 08:54 PM (#3422864)

I was actually going to say that this is maybe the first Ichiro projection I've seen that looked somewhat sensible. At least it doesn't have him hitting .297 or something.

CHONE's .306 is pretty hard to take. PECOTA's 2009 was pretty awesome - 292/338/359. Seriously.

I get that the problem is that Ichiro is radically different from almost any other baseball player ever, and so the failure to project Ichiro is a failure internal to baseball projections. That is, one of the basic presumptions of projection is that MLB ballplayers are like each other and historical data is robustly useful for thinking about how players will perform in the future. This base presumption is less true for Ichiro than it is for any other player in baseball.

44. PreservedFish Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3422869)

I don't understand why the projections would miss so badly on Ichiro. If you just do a three year average you get .335 or something. If you apply a basic age curve, what does it knock off, .010?

It suggests that the project of using comparable players as the projection engine is a failure. The simplest engine does Ichiro better.

45. Esoteric Posted: December 27, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3422893)

This base presumption is less true for Ichiro than it is for any other player in baseball.

Which is why, despite his obvious flaws as an offensive player, Ichiro remains IMO the most fascinating player currently in the game. I do so love how he has obliterated his projections every single year.

Actually, has he? Is there somewhere I can go to find historical projection data for players? Ichiro's PECOTA, CHONE and ZiPS for, say, the past five years? (Well I can find ZiPS here easily enough.) I know I should already know the answer to this question, but I don't.

46. Shock has moved on Posted: December 27, 2009 at 10:18 PM (#3422904)

2008 ZiPS = .322 .372 .404
2008 Ichi = .310 .361 .386

47. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: December 27, 2009 at 10:38 PM (#3422909)

Is there a link to how ODDIBE is calculated? Google isn't helping me here.

Thanks!

48. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: December 28, 2009 at 04:32 AM (#3423073)

Dan, would it be possible to get a ZiPS line for Steven Shell?

49. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 05:54 AM (#3423094)

2008 ZiPS = .322 .372 .404
2008 Ichi = .310 .361 .386

What is your point?
I mean that as a serious question that I would love to see an answer to. What point were you trying to make?

Projections regularly expect Ichiro to disappoint, so ONE YEAR, when he has the worst season of his career, they are pretty close? What does that prove? How does that help any useful discussion?

That is about as stupid as Prospectus regularly predicting the end of the Braves titles. Sure enough, they were right eventually, but that didn't change the fact that they were completely wrong

50. Baldrick Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:04 AM (#3423095)

What is your point?
I mean that as a serious question that I would love to see an answer to. What point were you trying to make?
Projections regularly expect Ichiro to disappoint, so ONE YEAR, when he has the worst season of his career, they are pretty close? What does that prove? How does that help any useful discussion?

Well, I'd hazard that it was a response to the post IMMEDIATELY prior to it. Where Esoteric said:

Which is why, despite his obvious flaws as an offensive player, Ichiro remains IMO the most fascinating player currently in the game. I do so love how he has obliterated his projections every single year.

Actually, has he?

So, yeah. Seems like a pretty reasonable contribution to the discussion, doesn't it?

51. greenback does not like sand

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:07 AM (#3423096)

2005 PECOTA for Ichiro: 311/355/415
2005 Actual: 303/350/436

So make it two years.

52. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:39 AM (#3423104)

I definitely need to get around and add some ODDIBE questions in the ZiPS FAQ. Short-version, data smoothing and array of probabilities for change from baseline performance for each component (with relationship between components taken into account as things like doubles and HRs aren't truly independent variables) and Monte Carlo.

53. Esoteric Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:45 AM (#3423105)

So, yeah. Seems like a pretty reasonable contribution to the discussion, doesn't it?

Yup. Shock was just helpfully answering my question - doing my research for me (always the best way to handle research projects...ask questions loudly and hope someone else will look that crap up for you).

54. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 06:55 AM (#3423109)

For Suzuki (since 2004)



Year          ZiPS          Actual

2004   325/373/436     372/414/455  

2005   343/390/436     303/350/436

2006   319/366/429     322/370/416

2007   319/366/413     351/396/431

2008   322/372/404     310/361/386

2009   304/354/383     352/386/465

The thing is, Ichiro's not really all that consistent. If he'd stop alternating 105 and 125 OPS+ seasons, projection systems would nail him better.

55. Shock has moved on Posted: December 28, 2009 at 07:59 AM (#3423112)

So, in a nutshell:

ZiPS has completely whiffed on Ichiro twice, undersold him by a little once, oversold him by a little twice, and nailed him once.

Doesn't seem too bad. I might take the over on 2010, but I wouldn't be all that confident...

56. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:02 AM (#3423113)

Well, I'd hazard that it was a response to the post IMMEDIATELY prior to it. Where Esoteric said:

I know that, but to pick the worst year of guy's career and just throw the results of that out there vs the ZIPS doesn't really get us out there. Talk about cherrypicking and outliers and what not.

57. Shock has moved on Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:09 AM (#3423114)

I know that, but to pick the worst year of guy's career and just throw the results of that out there vs the ZIPS doesn't really get us out there. Talk about cherrypicking and outliers and what not.

I'm not "cherrypicking," I am posting a direct response to a direct claim. The claim was that Ichro "obliterates" his projection "every single year." Those last three words were placed in italics, for emphasis. He then went on to ASK us readers if his claims were true. I thought it prudent to show that, actually, they failed to be true even as recently as two seasons ago. How quickly we forget.

The claims of "cherry picking" are just silly in this context. It's like:

A) "There is no such thing as cats!!"
B) "Then what's that?" *points to a cat*
A) You're cherry-picking!

Wow, two arguments for me in one night? At least you didn't challenge me to a fight...

58. MM1f Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:30 AM (#3423116)

Fair enough, you did answer whether it happened "every single year" but finding that underestimating a guy every year works on the year he posts his worst season still doesn't get us very far

59. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:47 AM (#3423119)

ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.

Is ZiPS not loving it some Brett Anderson?

(Am I hoping for too much?)

60. Baldrick Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:12 AM (#3423121)

Fair enough, you did answer whether it happened "every single year" but finding that underestimating a guy every year works on the year he posts his worst season still doesn't get us very far

I love it when people say 'fair enough' and then continue to willfully misunderstand the point.

You know what else Shock didn't help us understand? How to build a unified field theory. Disputing the assertion that Ichiro beat ZIPS every year gets us no closer to developing cold fusion. Even more, it does very little to establish the most effective way of ensuring that young pitchers stay healthy.

I'm extremely angry about this failure.

61. Alex_Lewis Posted: December 28, 2009 at 10:30 AM (#3423124)

Well, I didn't say that Ichiro "beats" ZiPS every year; all I said was that it's rarely correct about him. I don't think that's an inaccurate statement.

62. CFiJ Posted: December 28, 2009 at 02:45 PM (#3423184)

The Games Played projection for Ichiro seems awfully low though. His career low was last year, and even that was 146 games. Is there a reason for that?

63. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 28, 2009 at 02:59 PM (#3423193)

I think what we see here is that ZiPS has done quite a solid job on Ichiro, better than I certainly remembered. Overall ZiPS has undersold him, but probably not by a lot more than any projection system will undersell a player who maintains good production into his 30s. Here's the same data, but with PECOTA following Ichiro's actual numbers:

Year- ZiPS-------- Actual------ PECOTA
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455 309/351/423
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436 311/355/415
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416 308/343/406
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431 310/354/398
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386 304/346/384
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465 292/338/359

There's the difference I was talking about.

64. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:10 PM (#3423200)

ZiPS sees the AL Cy as a 5-pitcher race of Felix, Greinke, Lee, Sabathia, and Vazquez. Then a significant dropoff to the next tier of Verlander, Shields, Beckett, Garza, Lackey, Lester.

Nope. You're not doing it. You're not getting my hopes up. He's going 15-12, 4.20 and that's that.

65. Danny Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:18 PM (#3423206)

Has ZIPS always used comparable players? If not, when did it start to?

Does Hannahan have the arm to play SS? Given his defensive chops at 2B and 3B, he would make a very nice utility IF if he can play a passable SS.

Could you tell us what park factors and league run environments you're using for 2010 (or link me to where you do)? Thanks. It looks the same Mariner ERA is worth about 3 more points in ERA+ in 2010 than in 2009.

66. Greg K Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:21 PM (#3423208)

all I said was that it's rarely correct about him. I don't think that's an inaccurate statement.

Define rarely

/Jerry Seinfeld

67. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 28, 2009 at 03:22 PM (#3423209)

Ichiro would join small, but not exclusive company as outfielders to play more than 130+ games at age 36 or older. 145 games is rarer company (52 seasons vs. 106) but I'd hardly bet against it.

68. geonose Posted: December 28, 2009 at 08:37 PM (#3423450)

ZiPS has Felix leading the league in ERA, just nudging out Greinke (I don't have all projections done, but I did all the contenders for ESPN Mag - I figured I didn't need to project Jeremy Sowers or Gio Gonzalez for that task).

Any clue when that will be appearing in the ESPN Mag?

69. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3423488)

I would love to see Greg Halman get 500 PAs, but that ain't happenin'. If by some quirk of fate it did, he'd obliterate the single-season K record.

-- MWE

70. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 09:24 PM (#3423498)

Any clue when that will be appearing in the ESPN Mag?

No, actually. I never think to ask useful questions like that.

71. Neal Traven Posted: December 28, 2009 at 11:21 PM (#3423587)

Player W L S ERA G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA+
HernandezFelix 247 125 0 3.17 550 552 3726 3210 344 1234 3430 140

King Felix is one amazing dude. Why, he's projected to start more games than he appears in!

72. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 28, 2009 at 11:58 PM (#3423597)

Ack! I never fixed the rounding issue!

73. sportznut Posted: December 29, 2009 at 07:10 PM (#3424010)

Any chance we see the Indians projections today?

Recent signings?

74. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 30, 2009 at 04:01 AM (#3424442)

Chad Cordero and Josh Bard recently signed w/ the Mariners . . . projections? Thanxxxx.

75. JoeHova Posted: January 07, 2010 at 12:54 AM (#3430313)

There has been a lot of talk recently on Mariners blogs about how people who want the team to sign somebody who can actually hit are stupid. They say that defense is just as important as offense. How can they say with such dead-on certainty that that is the case? Obviously run prevention as a whole is extremely important but how can defense be as important as offense when the difference between a good offense and a bad offense is many more runs than the difference between a good defense and a bad defense?

In the AL last year, the spread between the top offense and the bottom offense was 275 runs and the best offense was 134 runs better than the average one. Meanwhile, the spread between the best defense and the worst was 135 runs (measured with UZR, the preferred defensive metric of many Mariner blogs) and the best was 87 runs better than average (the average team UZR in the AL last year was -1.2).

Doesn't this imply that offense is more valuable than defense because the effect defense has on runs is smaller than the effect offense has on runs? If not, why not?

The Mariners, by the way, were first in defense and last in offense.

76. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 13, 2010 at 10:40 PM (#3709791)

I thought #75 was recent, courtesy of the last line. (not that they were 1st in defense)

77. Esoteric Posted: December 13, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3709830)

Oof. I read my earlier comment now and wince.

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2010 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

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