BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

After staying 6 games out or so for most of the season, the Rays folded faster than Maxime Weygand once Carlos Pena’s year ended early. Thanks to some pretty bad offensive holes that they weren’t expecting in center, right, and DH, the Rays didn’t quite have the offense they were hoping. A 102 OPS+ is perfectly respectable for a team, but with Longoria, Pena, Bartlett, and Crawford having solid seasons and an MVP-ish outburst from Zobrist, the team could’ve had the 2nd-best offense in the league if the supporting cast had pulled their weight.

The good news is that there are no structural issues in the Rays organization that should keep the team from doing bettr than 84 wins in 2010. CF, RF, and DH should get dead cat bounces that will compensate for Zobrist not being a superstar, but the team is going to have to answer some questions behind the plate. Navarro can be a solid contributor, but unless he’s going to tell his team ahead of time that he’s about to hit like a pitcher for 4 months, he’s of little use as a starter.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Carlos Pena*             1b  32  .243  .366  .524 137 481  79 117 26  2 35  93  86 155  2  1   136 

Evan Longoria            3b  24  .272  .351  .525 152 570  88 155 40  1 34 104  66 139  8  0   131 

Ben Zobrist#             2b  29  .261  .356  .443 121 418  63 109 20  4 16  52  61  81 12  4   113 

Carl Crawford*           lf  28  .293  .344  .444 138 556  84 163 27  9 13  67  40  90 45 11   110 

Joe Dillon               1b  34  .275  .352  .408  82 240  38  66 12  1  6  30  25  35  3  1   104 

Jason Bartlett           ss  30  .286  .345  .405 132 482  66 138 26  5  7  44  39  78 20  6   101 

B.J. Upton               cf  25  .260  .347  .410 144 547  83 142 33  2 15  65  72 150 35 14   103 

Pat Burrell              dh  33  .230  .337  .415 132 448  52 103 21  1 20  68  73 123  1  0   101 

Willy Aybar#             1b  27  .257  .332  .417 115 369  42  95 21  1 12  44  38  56  1  2   100 

Chris Richard*           1b  36  .248  .326  .414 100 355  45  88 18  1 13  48  36  87  3  1    97 

Akinori Iwamura*         2b  30  .268  .347  .373 136 557  84 149 25  8  6  39  67 122  9  6    93 

Gabe Gross*              rf  30  .237  .330  .397 124 295  37  70 16  2  9  36  41  73  4  2    95 

Desmond Jennings         cf  23  .264  .330  .371  99 394  55 104 18  3  6  30  35  63 28  7    88 

Gabe Kapler              rf  34  .252  .320  .416  93 202  26  51 13  1  6  28  20  35  4  2    96 

Gregg Zaun#              c   39  .237  .335  .367  94 278  29  66 15  0  7  26  40  48  1  1    89 

Matthew Joyce*           rf  25  .235  .313  .407 129 455  54 107 27  3 15  50  50 124  7  5    91 

John Jaso*               c   26  .265  .336  .351 112 396  45 105 17  1  5  40  40  55  1  1    86 

Sean Rodriguez           2b  25  .229  .308  .400 128 462  63 106 22  3 17  55  43 135  7  3    89 

Jon Weber*               lf  32  .253  .315  .381 100 383  42  97 23  1  8  39  33  79  5  5    86 

Justin Ruggiano          cf  28  .238  .301  .369 124 453  56 108 22  2 11  51  37 136 17  5    79 

Dioner Navarro#          c   26  .248  .302  .367 116 395  41  98 21  1  8  41  28  56  3  2    79 

Chris Nowak              3b  27  .247  .306  .342 122 474  50 117 23  2  6  51  36  98  7  4    74 

Michel Hernandez         c   31  .258  .307  .335  64 209  23  54  8  1  2  20  14  26  1  1    73 

Shawn Riggans            c   29  .239  .290  .362  47 163  16  39  8  0  4  19   9  33  1  1    74 

Reid Brignac*            ss  24  .244  .286  .359 122 479  49 117 27  2  8  39  27  97  6  5    72 

Henry Mateo#             2b  33  .243  .304  .326  73 267  29  65 12  2  2  14  22  52 11  5    70 

Fernando Perez#          cf  27  .242  .309  .317  91 347  52  84 11  3  3  18  33 100 20  9    69 

Elliot Johnson#          2b  26  .230  .281  .351  99 370  39  85 15  3  8  32  24  98 10  5    69 

Rashad Eldridge#         lf  28  .241  .301  .309 115 440  48 106 17  2  3  35  35  95 12  8    65 

Jose Lobaton#            c   25  .224  .278  .328  84 290  26  65 13  1  5  24  22  87  0  0    62 

Ray Olmedo#              3b  29  .247  .285  .314 118 401  35  99 14  2  3  31  20  65  8  7    61 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Pena*                   Av/98                                                   

Longoria                                Ex/88                                   

Zobrist#                        Vg/82   Av/82   Av/146  Vg/73   Av/73   Vg/73   

Crawford*                                               Ex/92                   

Dillon                  Av/121  Pr/121  Fr/92           Av/116                  

Bartlett                                        Av/118                          

Upton                           Pr/189                          Vg/114          

Burrell                                                 Pr/138                  

Aybar#                  Av/74   Av/121  Av/101                                  

Richard*                Fr/144                          Fr/84                   

Iwamura*                        Av/76   Av/73                                   

Gross*                                                  Av/99   Fr/99   Av/99   

Jennings                                                        Vg/102          

Kapler                                                  Av/95   Fr/95   Vg/95   

Zaun#              Fr                                                           

Joyce*                                                  Av/117  Pr/130  Av/117  

Jaso*              Fr                                                           

Rodriguez                       Vg/103          Av/112  Av/99   Fr/99   Av/99   

Weber*                                                  Av/131  Pr/145  Fr/145  

Ruggiano                                                Vg/98   Fr/44   Av/136  

Navarro#           Av                                                           

Nowak                   Av/131          Fr/105          Av/122          Av/122  

Hernandez          Fr                                                           

Riggans            Fr                                                           

Brignac*                        Av/121          Av/117                          

Mateo#                          Fr/136          Fr/136  Fr/121  Fr/121  Fr/121  

Perez#                                                  Vg/121  Vg/121  Vg/121  

Johnson#                        Av/164  Av/164  Fr/180  Av/125  Fr/125  Av/125  

Eldridge#                                               Vg/90   Av/118  Vg/69   

Lobaton#           Fr                                                           

Olmedo#                         Fr/121  Fr/106  Fr/123                          

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

LongoriaEvan       3B   66%   28%    5%    1%    0%      RolenScott    CliftHarlond     WrightDavid

PenaCarlos         1B   41%   34%   15%    7%    2%   NicholsonBill       HeathJeff      TenaceGene

CrawfordCarl       LF   26%   41%   21%   11%    2%    RichardsGene     FinleySteve    WebsterMitch

ZobristBen         2B   58%   23%   12%    6%    1%   McAuliffeDick    PhillipsTony       FreyLonny

BartlettJason      SS   38%   33%   22%    6%    1%       LugoJulio     LarkinBarry   FernandezTony

DillonJoe          1B    1%   11%   23%   43%   22%  CavarrettaPhil      MormanRuss      JohnsonRoy

UptonB.J.          CF   22%   23%   33%   17%    5%      AllisonBob   BradleyMilton      BurksEllis

AybarWilly         1B    2%    4%   10%   40%   44%      SeguiDavid      LaCockPete      LarkinGene

BurrellPat         DH    3%   10%   16%   40%   32%    FielderCecil       SalmonTim       TracyAndy

RichardChris       1B    3%    6%   14%   36%   41%   McQuinnGeorge     CroweGeorge       HodgesGil

JenningsDesmond    CF    5%   15%   37%   33%   10%      DernierBob     PiersallJim  GrissomMarquis

KaplerGabe         RF    3%    9%   13%   26%   49%      KennedyBob        NorenIrv    SoltersMoose

IwamuraAkinori     2B   10%   14%   22%   30%   25% DeShieldsDelino MorandiniMickey     NewhanDavid

GrossGabe          RF    1%    5%   11%   26%   57%       MooreGene  CarpenterBubba   DellucciDavid

JoyceMatthew       RF    0%    2%    5%   17%   77%      AllredBeau        SkubeBob  LangerhansRyan

RodriguezSean      2B    3%    9%   19%   34%   34%      RaburnRyan         MackRay     GinterKeith

ZaunGregg           C    5%   18%   28%   33%   16%     SchangWally     FerrellRick      MancusoGus

JasoJohn            C    3%   11%   27%   42%   17%   ThompsonTommy  ChristmasSteve   DalrympleClay

WeberJon           LF    0%    1%    3%    9%   87%       MooreGene       ZarillaAl      SwannPedro

RuggianoJustin     CF    3%    4%   10%   29%   55%        PorterBo   LoweryTerrell     PorterColin

NavarroDioner       C    2%    4%   12%   39%   45%     RodgersBuck      PenaBrayan  BarrettMichael

NowakChris         3B    0%    1%    2%    7%   90%     BertoiaReno   SpringerSteve     JurgesBilly

HernandezMichel     C    0%    1%    4%   25%   70%      AstrothJoeHargreavesCharli       SpohrerAl

RiggansShawn        C    0%    1%    7%   36%   56%      MolinaIzzy MakarewiczScott    HammockRobby

BrignacReid        SS    0%    1%    5%   23%   70% QuintanillaOmar       BerraDale   RamirezRafael

MateoHenry         2B    0%    0%    1%    6%   93%   CandaeleCasey      AliceaLuis      BarrettTom

PerezFernando      CF    0%    1%    3%   12%   85%       EspyCecil       ScottTony    TorresAndres

JohnsonElliot      2B    0%    0%    1%    6%   93%     CrespoCesar      DavisKevin  MercedesVictor

EldridgeRashad     LF    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%         FoxEric     GilbertMark    NunezAbraham

LobatonJose         C    0%    0%    0%    4%   96%    HemphillBret    SwisherSteve    McGriffTerry

OlmedoRay          3B    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%     HolkeWalter   WilliamsGlenn  DallimoreBrian

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP.500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

LongoriaEvan          13%     16%     70%     27%     18%      0%     71%      0%

PenaCarlos             5%     35%     56%     38%      0%      0%     71%      0%

CrawfordCarl          41%     10%     13%      4%      1%     82%      1%     98%

ZobristBen             9%     25%     13%      7%      0%      3%      2%      0%

BartlettJason         31%     12%      2%      1%      1%     31%      0%      7%

DillonJoe             22%     20%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

UptonB.J.              5%     18%      3%      4%      6%      0%      1%     77%

AybarWilly             6%      4%      5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BurrellPat             1%      9%      3%      2%      0%      0%     10%      0%

RichardChris           4%      6%      5%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JenningsDesmond        9%      4%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%     39%

KaplerGabe             9%      9%      6%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%

IwamuraAkinori        14%     11%      0%      1%      0%     20%      0%      0%

GrossGabe              1%      5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JoyceMatthew           0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RodriguezSean          0%      0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ZaunGregg              3%     13%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JasoJohn               9%     10%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WeberJon               4%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RuggianoJustin         1%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      2%

NavarroDioner          2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

NowakChris             1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HernandezMichel       11%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RiggansShawn           5%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BrignacReid            1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MateoHenry             2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PerezFernando          3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      5%

JohnsonElliot          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EldridgeRashad         0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

LobatonJose            0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

OlmedoRay              2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Jamie Shields             28   3.94  13  10  34  34   226.1  227   99  28   47  173  113 

Matt Garza                26   3.95  12  10  34  34   202.2  197   89  23   76  172  112 

Wade Davis                24   4.58  10  11  34  34   182.2  181   93  20   61  137   97 

David Price*              24   4.63   9  10  29  27   145.2  143   75  20   66  113   95 

Jeff Niemann              27   4.65   9  10  30  29   162.2  169   84  21   62  110   95 

Jeremy Hellickson         23   4.67   6   7  24  24   123.1  127   64  20   34   98   95 

Carlos Hernandez*         30   4.88   3   4  14  13    66.1   74   36   7   29   37   91 

Jason Cromer*             29   5.21   5   8  29  17   105.1  128   61  11   42   49   85 

Mitch Talbot              26   5.29   6  10  22  21   115.2  134   68  13   44   65   84 

Andrew Sonnanstine        27   5.34  10  15  33  32   187.0  211  111  27   45  115   83 

Heath Rollins             25   5.56   7  13  30  25   144.0  167   89  23   52   74   80 

Jacob McGee*              23   5.71   3   5  16  16    63.0   65   40   9   35   45   77 

James Houser*             25   6.35   2   6  19  18    83.2   92   59  15   55   43   70 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

J.P. Howell*              27   3.28   7   4  72   0    79.2   62   29   8   37   89  136 

Russ Springer             41   3.86   3   2  70   0    53.2   52   23   6   19   49  117 

Chad Bradford             35   3.89   3   2  51   0    41.2   48   18   3   11   17  114 

Grant Balfour             32   3.91   4   4  66   0    69.0   56   30   7   35   76  112 

Lance Cormier             29   4.09   3   3  54   0    83.2   86   38   7   32   47  109 

Winston Abreu             33   4.13   3   3  52   0    65.1   59   30   8   28   67  107 

Dan Wheeler               32   4.18   5   5  67   0    60.1   54   28  10   17   50  106 

Joe Nelson                35   4.24   3   3  62   0    63.2   57   30   9   33   57  104 

Brian Shouse*             41   4.26   2   1  57   0    38.0   41   18   4   12   22  103 

Jason Isringhausen        37   4.41   1   2  35   0    34.2   34   17   3   18   24  100 

Dale Thayer               29   4.54   3   4  58   0    69.1   75   35   7   27   42   97 

Randy Choate*             34   4.60   2   2  56   1    47.0   48   24   5   20   30   96 

Troy Percival             40   4.61   1   1  30   0    27.1   25   14   4   13   22   96 

Joe Bateman               30   4.75   3   3  43   1    60.2   61   32   6   34   42   93 

Jeff Bennett              30   4.95   4   5  58   7    83.2   95   46   9   49   48   90 

Jason Childers            35   5.01   4   5  49   0    59.1   64   33   8   24   36   89 

Eduardo Morlan            24   5.58   4   6  43   0    59.2   66   37   9   31   39   79 

Julio DePaula             27   5.99   3   6  56   3    82.2   95   55  13   50   47   74 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

HowellJ.P.         RP       71%   27%    2%        MyersRandy        RockerJohn       WagnerBilly

SpringerRuss       RP       45%   40%   15%     AndersenLarry      PaigeSatchel           ReedRon

BradfordChad       RP       42%   38%   20%     QuantrillPaul         LockerBob          KlineRon

ShieldsJames       SP       60%   38%    2%   EckersleyDennis         SheetsBen        HarenDanny

BalfourGrant       RP       33%   50%   18%         DurenRyne     KershnerJason         ClearMark

GarzaMatt          SP       54%   44%    2%       GreeneTommy      McDowellJack          WelchBob

CormierLance       RP       28%   54%   18%        BuddieMike        DeJeanMike      WilliamsTodd

AbreuWinston       RP       23%   53%   24%    FarnsworthKyle       JacksonMike      LockwoodSkip

WheelerDan         RP       21%   54%   25%       ReardonJeff     SpradlinJerry       FoulkeKeith

NelsonJoe          RP       19%   48%   33%     BerenguerJuan       StoddardTim       DeLuciaRich

ShouseBrian        RP       33%   31%   35%        GroomBuddy      HaddixHarvey     HoneycuttRick

IsringhausenJason  RP       23%   34%   44%   CarraraGiovanni        SeguiDiego  HernandezRoberto

PercivalTroy       RP       26%   38%   37%        HarrisGreg          BairDoug        McMahonDon

ThayerDale         RP       10%   46%   44%        BuddieMike      WilliamsTodd    WilliamsonMark

DavisWade          SP       18%   63%   18%     FernandezAlex     CastilloFrank        JonesBobby

ChoateRandy        RP       17%   41%   42%  SchoeneweisScott        McClureBob        AgostoJuan

NiemannJeff        SP       15%   62%   23%     HudsonCharles    HernandezManny       ThomsonJohn

PriceDavid         SP       17%   59%   24% HitchcockSterling      CapuanoChris      SaundersTony

HellicksonJeremy   SP       20%   55%   25%       BoydOil Can         HaasMoose      ReyesAnthony

BatemanJoe         RP        6%   44%   50%       WilkinsMarc      DoughertyJim      CamachoErnie

HernandezCarlos    SP       15%   38%   48%      JacksonDanny       HamptonMike     AndersonJimmy

BennettJeff        RP        4%   36%   60%      BumsteadMike         FioreTony         ZuberBill

ChildersJason      RP        7%   28%   65%     BullingerKirk       BarlowRicky        HergesMatt

CromerJason        SP        7%   34%   59%     GuettermanLee    BlasingameWade     AndersonJimmy

TalbotMitch        SP        3%   37%   60%        LaCossMike         HillShawn         ScottMike

SonnanstineAndy    SP        3%   36%   61%       SirotkaMike        MarothMike         LeekRandy

RollinsHeath       SP        1%   22%   77%      McKnightTony         SmartJ.D.          FreedDan

MorlanEduardo      RP        1%   18%   81%     CarmonaRafael    BottalicoRicky         BrownMark

McGeeJacob         SP        4%   22%   75%       RogersKevin         ConroyTim      WallaceChris

DePaulaJulio       RP        0%    4%   96%     GaillardEddie      McLearyMarty         BondDaven

WlodarczykMichael  RP        0%    3%   97%    BlasingameWade       FloresRandy         FreedMark

HouserJames        SP        0%    5%   95%     WhitakerSteve       WunschKelly        NormandGuy

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

HowellJ.P.              65%       96%       95%       0%       69%

SpringerRuss            37%       80%       53%       8%       57%

BradfordChad            34%       73%        0%      34%       86%

ShieldsJames            17%       86%        7%      68%       35%

BalfourGrant            26%       78%       95%       0%       77%

GarzaMatt               15%       84%       31%       0%       55%

CormierLance            19%       73%        1%       2%       76%

AbreuWinston            18%       71%       85%       1%       42%

WheelerDan              16%       63%       25%      20%       26%

NelsonJoe               15%       61%       53%       0%       36%

ShouseBrian             26%       57%        2%      32%       56%

IsringhausenJason       23%       56%       10%       2%       75%

PercivalTroy            26%       54%       21%       5%       46%

ThayerDale               7%       49%        0%       1%       71%

DavisWade                3%       45%        6%       2%       53%

ChoateRandy             13%       50%        2%       1%       64%

NiemannJeff              2%       40%        1%       0%       36%

PriceDavid               2%       41%        8%       0%       26%

HellicksonJeremy         3%       42%       16%      16%       13%

BatemanJoe               6%       43%        3%       0%       76%

HernandezCarlos          4%       29%        0%       1%       64%

BennettJeff              3%       30%        1%       0%       64%

ChildersJason            6%       30%        2%       3%       46%

CromerJason              2%       18%        0%       2%       71%

TalbotMitch              0%       14%        0%       1%       61%

SonnanstineAndy          0%       10%        0%      39%       21%

RollinsHeath             0%        4%        0%       1%       14%

MorlanEduardo            1%       11%        1%       0%       28%

McGeeJacob               0%       10%        6%       0%       30%

DePaulaJulio             0%        2%        0%       0%       18%

WlodarczykMichael        0%        3%        0%       0%       51%

HouserJames              0%        1%        0%       0%       10%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

NavarroDioner    .248 .305 .363 1154  3909    411    968  196   9   79  405   299    565  27  18   77

BartlettJason    .277 .339 .385 1683  6045    817   1677  297  56   81  529   501   1008 223  74   93

IwamuraAkinori   .270 .343 .376  851  3328    471    899  166  44   33  235   366    704  68  35   92

LongoriaEvan     .263 .349 .501 2535  9427   1568   2483  628  15  526 1806  1182   2379 112  34  119

PenaCarlos       .237 .351 .491 1845  6372    991   1508  312  31  415 1149  1052   2049  30  24  122

ZobristBen       .250 .344 .424 1383  4723    677   1179  212  42  176  573   669    936 107  48  104

CrawfordCarl     .290 .335 .432 2187  8847   1313   2562  388 153  188 1015   568   1402 669 170  103

UptonB.J.        .250 .339 .388 1864  7036   1032   1760  397  27  174  775   938   1925 407 180   95

BurrellPat       .247 .355 .457 1870  6456    869   1593  337  19  328 1111  1087   1812  11   1  111

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

GarzaMatt         164   158     0  4.21    498    495 2960   2838    380   1165   2513    105

ShieldsJames      160   146     0  4.23    452    454 2967   3053    410    680   2300    105

PercivalTroy       36    44   374  3.26    746      1  746    515     91    324    812    143

IsringhausenJas    49    54   320  3.70    711     52 1001    909     81    440    817    115

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

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Reds

Rockies

Royals

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Dan Szymborski Posted: October 28, 2009 at 10:03 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 28, 2009 at 11:32 PM (#3368989)

Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter. Which is interesting, considering he's also projected for over 600 doubles and nearly 1200 walks.

2. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: October 29, 2009 at 12:10 AM (#3369049)

How rare is it for a player so young to project to 500 home runs? It surprised me to see ZiPS projects it.

Also, another question for Dan. When you are extrapolating career statistics, are you just taking the 50% line for every season up until the point that they'd no longer be able to play major league baseball, or is it done differently?

3. Dan Szymborski

Posted: October 29, 2009 at 12:57 AM (#3369170)

Based on an entirely cursory check of two players, it looks like Longoria is projected to have the lowest career OPS+ of any 500-HR hitter.

That's pretty much because 500 homer level has only recently been "available" to non-ridiculous hitters. It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.

4. jfish26101 Posted: October 29, 2009 at 02:43 AM (#3369545)

Was I in an alternate universe this year where Zobrist was actually good at the plate? A .950 OPS in the AL and probably the toughest division in baseball and yet his projection doesn't even crack .800? This is right up there with the horrible projection you gave Greinke last year...I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

5. John DiFool2 Posted: October 29, 2009 at 02:56 AM (#3369621)

Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?

I also checked out the other 500 men, and only Ernie Banks (122) approaches E-Lo's projected OPS+. That surprised me a little, on both ends; given his still youthful age and current hitting level, I'd take the over on that (as in, a higher average, some more walks, a few more homers).

6. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:17 AM (#3369709)

Has any young phenom's star fallen as far and as fast as B. J. Upton? .388 projected career slugging?

To me he's the Donovan McNabb of baseball. He could be MVP next year, or he could ride the bench, and neither would be truly surprising.

7. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:48 AM (#3369787)

I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

If "team"="Tampa Bay Rays" and "player"="Zobrist" then "OPS=798".

I think that's how Dan's subjective computer analysis works, right?

8. The importance of being Ernest Riles Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:50 AM (#3369792)

I love the Satchel Paige comp for Russ Springer.

9. Walt Davis Posted: October 29, 2009 at 03:53 AM (#3369796)

So ZiPS is projecting another 2.5 seasons for Burrell. If that projection is correct, ZiPS is probably being kind.

Oh, wait, does playing for the Royals still count as time in the majors?

10. Astro Logical Sign Stealer Posted: October 29, 2009 at 04:36 AM (#3369831)

Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?

11. Walt Davis Posted: October 29, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3370740)

Dan, Dan, Dan ... when will you bring your vile anti-Zobrist campaign to an end?

Because there's clearly no other rational explanation.

Though I also wouldn't be surprised to find that jfish26101 does live in a different universe than most of us most of the time ... though clearly they've got way cooler names in that universe.

it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.

Suicide is painless.

Kind of crazy that Bartlett has one great season in his late 20s, and suddenly there's Barry Larkin and Tony Fernandez on his comp list. Is that ZIPS saying he's no fluke?

ZiPS comps are "recent-season" comps not career comps. So Fernandez makes some sense as from ages 27-29 he was putting up a 100ish OPS+.

But Dan might want to check that the Frinkenator is working right on the Larkin comp because he put up OPS+ of 143, 132, 124 for ages 27-29.

Or, FAR more likely, it's his pro-Bartlett conspiracy ... expect him to come along any minute now with some reasonable-sounding explanation for why Bartlett's 2009 wasn't a fluke.

12. JPWF13

Posted: October 29, 2009 at 10:50 PM (#3370785)

It's not impossible for one of the 400 guys to have hit 500 home runs in a better environment.

like Kingman?

13. Shilzzz Posted: October 30, 2009 at 05:23 AM (#3371529)

Really looking forward to San Diego and San Francisco

14. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: October 30, 2009 at 07:44 AM (#3371550)

it's not like the human psyche is something you can take a pill and the condition just goes away.

Normally I'd have a 4000-word rant about the pharmaceutical industry in response, but it's 4AM, so I'll just settle for "you're right, Dan."

15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3378000)

16. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 04, 2009 at 11:35 PM (#3378003)

I would like to know what the elections mean for the Rays.

17. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 04, 2009 at 11:46 PM (#3378013)

Hey, Dan: Why is Iwamura projected for more PT than Bartlett? A guy on another blog asked me, and I couldn't figure out, given that Bartlett has more PT in two of the last three years, including a big edge in 2009.

As an experiment, for playing time purposes, ZiPS assumes that hitters with a huge year-to-year drop in playing time and are above replacement level but with little or no drop in ability are injured and for playing time purposes only, takes those numbers into less account. The 707 PA is a larger-than-usual component for his expected playing time.

Injured hitter playing time recovers, on a year-to-year basis, far, far better than injured pitcher playing time.

As I noted, it's an experiment this year. It's not really a big deal, I'm primarily worried about projecting rates.

18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 04, 2009 at 11:55 PM (#3378017)

Thanks! That makes sense - I'll let him know.

19. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:00 PM (#3379636)

Where does Jesse Chavez fit in to all this?

20. Rays&Sox; Posted: November 10, 2009 at 01:47 AM (#3383642)

Is it unusual that Iwamura's projection is exactly the same as last year's right down to the AB's? I would think between adding in another year's stats and aging a year the odds of that would be pretty low?

21. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 10, 2009 at 10:47 PM (#3384390)

Uh-oh, that's not good!

22. josehamiton1032 Posted: November 20, 2009 at 07:49 PM (#3392778)

I think that Zobrist will have a better year than what is projected. I do not think that he will fade away and hit .261

23. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 01, 2009 at 06:19 PM (#3400293)

If you get a chance, Dan, could you run Aneury Rodriguez? I think he's a pretty good bet to go in the Rule 5 this year, and I'm curious to see how he stacks up.

24. LB813 Posted: January 05, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3428117)

Im surprised there wasnt a projection for Matthew Moore. Didnt expect a good one or even useable, but thought there would be one. Maybe Alex Cobb too.

25. Greg K Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3630045)

I certainly am biased but I'm having a hard time believing you are 100% objective looking at these. :(

I agree. Clearly Dan took some bribes from Zobrist this off-season.

26. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:31 PM (#3630073)

Jose Bautista's secret satchel of steriods must have been stolen from Zobrist last September.

27. Dan Szymborski

Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:37 PM (#3630086)

I had similar arguments about Kung Fu Panda. On another blog, someone seriously argued that since ZiPS missed Sandoval's 2009 OPS by 180 points, that it should be assumed that Sandoval's 2010 would also be missed by 180 points and as ZiPS projected an .884 OPS for 2010, that it was safe to assume that Sandoval was the easy frontrunner for the MVP.

28. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 30, 2010 at 07:38 PM (#3630087)

I certainly am biased

Yep!

29. The Essex Snead Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:01 PM (#3630128)

[29] I'm thinking Bautista ganked some goodies from Pena's stash as well! And then stepped on his foot & broke his fingers! That bastard!

30. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3630132)

And he replaced Lind, Hill and Snider's steriods with sugar pills so he wouldn't have to share the glory.

31. RJ in TO Posted: August 30, 2010 at 08:07 PM (#3630139)

I've been greatly amused by Carlos Pena's long, slow offensive trip down Rob Deer Blvd.

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