BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 05, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

The Rangers had a pretty good season in 2009, going 87-75 and scaring the Angels for awhile, but the team still has a number of holes to fill, a lot of starting pitcher questions to sort out, and some financial uncertainty going forward.

2009 was not kind to the Rangers vaunted catching depth, with Salty being disappointing, Teagarden even worse, Ramirez, being injured and even worse than the former. Pudge is just about done and even former Ranger catchers Gerald Laird and Rod Barajas saw their prospects for the future decline considerably.

At this point, the Rangers may have to mostly with the team that they have and while there are a lot of things good about the team, especially Andrus and Feliz, I don’t think they’re good enough to seriously compete for the division without some luck.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Nelson Cruz              rf  29  .270  .342  .512 133 482  73 130 23  2 30  81  50 120 15  5   116 

Ian Kinsler              2b  28  .274  .346  .486 127 508  91 139 30  3 24  71  53  71 25  3   111 

Josh Hamilton*           cf  29  .283  .344  .488 106 406  59 115 23  3 18  70  37  86  7  2   111 

Michael Young            3b  33  .301  .352  .445 135 559  75 168 35  2 14  70  45  92  8  2   104 

Marlon Byrd              cf  32  .283  .339  .450 133 487  64 138 31  4 14  71  35  88  7  4   101 

David Murphy*            lf  28  .276  .337  .442 127 453  60 125 27  3 14  60  43  86  7  3    99 

Hank Blalock*            1b  29  .258  .309  .471  99 376  50  97 20  3 18  53  27  75  2  0    97 

Chris Davis*             1b  24  .251  .300  .475 136 495  69 124 26  2 27  79  34 158  2  1    95 

Nate Gold                1b  30  .256  .319  .436  85 328  38  84 18  1 13  53  29  77  0  1    92 

Esteban German           3b  32  .269  .352  .373 112 357  52  96 17  4  4  42  43  63 16  6    87 

Elvis Andrus             ss  21  .270  .333  .387 146 486  75 131 19  7  8  39  43  74 31  4    85 

Justin Smoak#            1b  23  .250  .340  .385  78 304  34  76 15  1  8  35  40  66  0  0    87 

Andruw Jones             dh  33  .223  .314  .421 102 354  51  79 17  1 17  55  45  88  4  1    87 

Royce Huffman            1b  33  .262  .336  .367 112 412  44 108 23  1  6  44  41  79  4  2    81 

Justin Leone             3b  33  .238  .317  .390  92 328  46  78 18  1 10  46  38  92  9  2    81 

Julio Borbon*            cf  24  .283  .330  .366 137 573  86 162 22  4  6  48  35  71 41 12    80 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia#   c   25  .248  .313  .396  95 323  41  80 16  1 10  40  30  95  0  2    81 

Kevin Thompson           rf  30  .249  .322  .378  57 185  29  46 10  1  4  19  18  38 11  3    80 

Ryan Freel               rf  34  .255  .329  .345  66 200  31  51 10  1  2  14  18  38 11  4    74 

Taylor Teagarden         c   26  .225  .300  .386  80 285  35  64 14  1 10  33  28  99  1  1    75 

Ivan Rodriguez           c   38  .262  .293  .389 114 416  53 109 22  2  9  48  18  86  4  2    74 

Maximiliano Ramirez      c   25  .237  .312  .348  96 359  35  85 16  0  8  43  36 104  1  1    70 

Craig Gentry             cf  26  .253  .308  .342 113 459  64 116 20  3  5  34  27  85 26  7    68 

Brandon Boggs#           lf  27  .220  .310  .346  11 382  41  84 18  3  8  40  48 118  7  3    69 

Joaquin Arias            ss  25  .266  .297  .354 101 421  52 112 16  3  5  39  17  48 16  3    67 

Casey Benjamin*          lf  29  .236  .312  .337 105 368  45  87 15  2  6  33  40  81  3  1    68 

Omar Vizquel#            ss  43  .255  .312  .330  86 282  34  72 11  2  2  29  23  31  7  3    66 

Manuel Pina              c   23  .249  .290  .348  90 342  33  85 17  1  5  35  16  62  1  0    64 

Adam Fox                 2b  28  .239  .285  .368 106 380  39  91 15  2 10  39  21  91  5  3    67 

Travis Metcalf           3b  27  .234  .285  .357 120 423  50  99 21  2  9  50  29 101  3  2    64 

Kevin Richardson         c   29  .212  .268  .355  78 273  28  58 10  1  9  28  17   6  0  1    59 

Greg Golson              cf  24  .229  .266  .312 122 477  47 109 17  4  5  39  26 139 16  4    49 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Cruz                                                    Av/106          Av/106  

Kinsler                         Av/118                                          

Hamilton*                                               Vg/86   Av/144  Vg/86   

Young                                   Fr/86   Fr/92                           

Byrd                                                    Av/62   Fr/123  Av/108  

Murphy*                                                 Av/98   Fr/167  Av/65   

Blalock*                Av/115          Pr/104                                  

Davis*                  Fr/74           Pr/109                                  

Gold                    Av/128                                                  

German                          Fr/130  Fr/130  Fr/130  Fr/171                  

Andrus                                          Vg/135                          

Smoak#                  Vg/104                                                  

Jones                                                   Av/75   Pr/75   Av/75   

Huffman                 Av/83   Pr/159  Pr/159          Av/118          Av/118  

Leone                   Av/120  Fr/120  Av/99   Pr/120  Vg/87   Pr/120  Vg/120  

Borbon*                                                 Vg/146  Vg/146  Vg/146  

Saltalamacchia#    Fr   Fr/160                                                  

Thompson                                                Av/120  Fr/150  Av/120  

Freel                           Fr/121  Fr/121          Av/98   Pr/98   Av/98   

Teagarden          Av                                                           

Rodriguez          Av                                                           

Ramirez            Fr   Fr/107                                                  

Gentry                                                          Vg/127          

Boggs#                                                  Vg/125  Av/85   Vg/125  

Arias                           Vg/155          Vg/118                          

Benjamin*                       Fr/109          Fr/109  Av/109                  

Vizquel#                        Vg/67           Ex/67                           

Pina               Av                                                           

Fox                     Av/98   Fr/98   Av/98                           Av/98   

Metcalf                                 Fr/100                                  

Richardson         Fr   Fr/104                                                  

Golson                                                  Av/90   Av/147  Av/90   

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

KinslerIan         2B   66%   16%   10%    5%    3%       HaleOdell    EasleyDamion     WerberBilly

CruzNelson         RF   21%   32%   22%   17%    8%   WestlakeWally    BrunanskyTom     MondesiRaul

HamiltonJosh       CF   36%   25%   25%   12%    2%      HallJimmie    AltmanGeorge  WyrostekJohnny

YoungMichael       3B   14%   24%   26%   22%   14%      MoraMelvin    WhitneyPinky     CirilloJeff

ByrdMarlon         CF   14%   20%   31%   23%   12%   DevereauxMike    BrandtJackie       BlairPaul

MurphyDavid        LF    4%   10%   14%   29%   43%      JohnsonRoy     NorthrupJim   McMillonBilly

BlalockHank        1B    2%    5%   10%   37%   46%     MatuszekLen        TodtPhil    KryhoskiDick

AndrusElvis        SS   17%   34%   35%   12%    1%     InfanteOmar    RollinsJimmy  CabreraOrlando

DavisChris         1B    0%    3%    9%   36%   51%      HowardRyan        LagaMike       MaasKevin

GoldNate           1B    0%    3%    5%   24%   67%      SchallGene FreireAlejandro     VitielloJoe

GermanEsteban      3B    1%    5%   14%   31%   48%      GarnerPhil     ShanksHowie       RandleLen

BorbonJulio        CF    2%    5%   21%   41%   32%     FinleySteve    JohnsonLance      ChavezEndy

SmoakJustin        1B    0%    0%    2%   20%   78%      BarbaraDon    SheltonChris        AbadAndy

ThompsonKevin      RF    0%    2%    3%   11%   84%       BrownEmil       BrowerBob      VenableMax

JonesAndruw        DH    2%    3%    5%   18%   72%      HickmanJim      OliverGene      DavisGlenn

LeoneJustin        3B    1%    3%    8%   23%   65%      RyanConnie       HansenJed    StephensVern

HuffmanRoyce       1B    0%    1%    3%    9%   87%     BurnsGeorge       TolmanTim    HayesCharlie

SaltalamacchiaJar   C    0%    4%   17%   44%   35%       AshbyAlan        DavisBen     WilkinsRick

FreelRyan          RF    0%    0%    1%    4%   95%     OutlawJimmy         FoxPete      KirbyWayne

RodriguezIvan       C    1%    4%   12%   34%   49%  SantiagoBenito          ToddAl      BordersPat

AriasJoaquin       SS    1%    2%    7%   31%   59%     RyanBrendan  ConcepcionOnix    ValdezWilson

GentryCraig        CF    1%    1%    3%   13%   82%        BusbyJim      JonesCleon    EllisonJason

TeagardenTaylor     C    1%    1%    5%   28%   65%      FimpleJack        GlassTim   GonzalezJimmy

RamirezMax          C    0%    1%    5%   26%   68%     WaszgisB.J.       AcevesJon   McDonaldKeith

VizquelOmar        SS    0%    0%    2%   16%   82%      SmithOzzie  ConcepcionDave       BowaLarry

BenjaminCasey      LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%  CarpenterBubba    ParsonsCasey     KingeryMike

BoggsBrandon       LF    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%       CarrChuck     CedenoRoger    ReynoldsR.J.

FoxAdam            2B    1%    1%    1%    5%   92% BloodworthJimmy    JavierJulian          HartBo

PinaManuel          C    0%    0%    1%   13%   86%    StewartChris    LudererBrian    MulliganSean

MetcalfTravis      3B    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%     KennedyJohn     BardenBrian       HulettTim

RichardsonKevin     C    0%    0%    1%    3%   96%MitterwaldGeorge     ArdoinDanny    SardinhaDane

GolsonGreg         RF    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%GuerreroCristian    SenreisoJuan    McDonaldT.J.

Name             .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

KinslerIan            16%     12%     47%      7%      3%      1%     22%     29%

CruzNelson            15%     10%     55%     10%      1%      0%     52%      1%

HamiltonJosh          30%     17%     33%     10%      1%      0%      4%      0%

YoungMichael          45%     25%     12%      4%     13%      0%      1%      0%

ByrdMarlon            26%      9%     15%      1%      4%      3%      2%      0%

MurphyDavid           20%      7%     12%      2%      2%      1%      1%      0%

BlalockHank            4%      1%     17%      1%      0%      1%      1%      0%

AndrusElvis            9%      5%      0%      0%      0%     67%      0%     63%

DavisChris             2%      0%     23%      0%      0%      0%     33%      0%

GoldNate               6%      3%      7%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GermanEsteban         16%     20%      0%      0%      0%      6%      0%      1%

BorbonJulio           30%      3%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%     94%

SmoakJustin            3%     12%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

ThompsonKevin          7%      6%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

JonesAndruw            2%      3%      5%      1%      0%      0%      5%      0%

LeoneJustin            1%      2%      3%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HuffmanRoyce          10%      7%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

SaltalamacchiaJar      2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FreelRyan             11%      9%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RodriguezIvan          9%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

AriasJoaquin          10%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%

GentryCraig            2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%     29%

TeagardenTaylor        0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RamirezMax             1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

VizquelOmar           11%      4%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BenjaminCasey          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BoggsBrandon           0%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

FoxAdam                1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PinaManuel             2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MetcalfTravis          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

RichardsonKevin        0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GolsonGreg             0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Neftali Feliz             22   4.14   9   5  39  19   111.0  102   51  10   57   90  113 

Scott Feldman             27   4.45  13   8  34  30   184.0  181   91  23   68   95  105 

Guillermo Moscoso         26   4.59   7   5  25  17   102.0  106   52  13   37   69  102 

Orlando Hernandez         44   4.74   2   2  10   6    38.0   30   20   7   18   30   99 

Brandon McCarthy          26   4.77   6   5  19  19    94.1   95   50  13   42   57   98 

Kevin Millwood            35   4.77  12   9  30  30   177.1  194   94  24   66  105   98 

Tommy Hunter              23   5.11  11  10  31  30   181.1  201  103  28   57   91   92 

Dustin Nippert            29   5.13   6   5  33  14   100.0  105   57  15   46   67   91 

Derek Holland*            23   5.15  10   9  33  25   146.2  157   84  22   61  103   91 

Mike Wood                 30   5.40   4   4  21  11    71.2   82   43  11   26   34   87 

Luis Mendoza              26   5.51   8   9  30  21   117.2  138   72  13   57   55   85 

Matt Harrison*            24   5.57   7   8  22  22   114.2  135   71  16   47   56   84 

Blake Beavan              21   5.73   8  10  27  27   143.0  172   91  25   43   49   82 

Martin Perez*             19   5.76   5   6  24  18    89.0  102   57  12   56   52   81 

Eric Hurley               24   5.98   3   5  12  12    64.2   73   43  14   27   40   78 

Kris Benson               35   6.12   5   8  19  16   100.0  121   68  20   39   47   76 

Elizardo Ramirez          27   6.24   7  10  26  22   131.1  165   91  27   43   52   75 

Omar Poveda               22   6.31   6  10  21  21   111.1  130   78  20   66   53   74 

Kasey Kiker*              22   6.53   5   9  25  23   114.1  134   83  21   77   72   72 

Kennil Gomez              22   6.61   6  12  23  23   110.1  129   81  20   77   59   71 

Michael Ballard*          26   6.62   7  13  28  25   141.1  187  104  28   52   64   71 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Frankie Francisco         30   3.66   3   1  59   0    59.0   50   24   7   25   61  128 

Darren O’Day              27   3.88   4   2  62   0    62.2   57   27   7   23   48  121 

C.J. Wilson*              29   3.97   5   2  66   0    65.2   59   29   7   33   63  118 

Joaquin Benoit            32   4.29   4   2  38   0    42.0   38   20   5   22   38  109 

Jason Grilli              33   4.70   3   2  55   0    61.1   61   32   6   34   51  100 

Doug Mathis               27   4.86   1   1  19   3    37.0   40   20   5   14   20   96 

Willie Eyre               31   4.91   2   2  38   2    58.2   63   32   7   26   31   95 

William Vaughan           29   4.97   4   3  47   0    58.0   61   32   6   30   40   94 

Eddie Guardado*           39   5.02   2   2  46   0    37.2   39   21   6   15   20   93 

Warner Madrigal           26   5.16   2   2  61   0    66.1   70   38  10   31   44   91 

Brian Gordon              31   5.26   5   5  41   4    75.1   84   44  12   26   39   89 

Bryan Corey               36   5.40   6   7  44   7    83.1   96   50  13   24   40   87 

Josh Rupe                 27   5.62   4   5  30   9    83.1   94   52  11   44   42   83 

Jailen Peguero            29   5.63   3   4  46   0    54.1   56   34   9   35   39   83 

Pedro Strop               25   5.67   4   4  40   0    46.0   48   29   6   33   31   83 

Jason Jennings            31   5.74   3   4  29   7    64.1   73   41  11   30   38   82 

Derrick Turnbow           32   6.23   2   2  29   0    26.0   25   18   3   29   23   75 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

FranciscoFrank     RP       57%   38%    5%        RadatzDick    FarnsworthKyle        NelsonJeff

O’DayDarren        RP       52%   42%    7%    SarmientoManny      RobinsonJeff     FrazierGeorge

WilsonC.J.         RP       41%   51%    8%       LaRocheDave      FuentesBrian         ScurryRod

FelizNeftali       SP       33%   56%   12%    BedrosianSteve       FoytackPaul          BrownBob

BenoitJoaquin      RP       34%   49%   18%      LeskanicCurt       DeLuciaRich      WilliamsMike

FeldmanScott       SP       33%   60%    8%    BannisterBrian          KingEric          NipperAl

MoscosoGuillermo   SP       35%   52%   13%          TibbsJay    HernandezManny         AshbyAndy

GrilliJason        RP       14%   52%   34% SlocumbHeathcliff       AlvarezJose          NorthLou

HernandezOrlando   SP       34%   34%   32%       DarwinDanny        VanceDazzy       GardnerMark

McCarthyBrandon    SP       26%   52%   22%       RaineyChuck          NipperAl        LeaCharlie

MillwoodKevin      SP       18%   67%   14%        MorganMike     BoddickerMike     ContrerasJose

MathisDoug         RP       17%   43%   40%         WitteTrey        WolfeBrian        GinterMatt

EyreWillie         RP       11%   46%   44%      SantiagoJose      WilliamsTodd       NolesDickie

VaughanWilliam     RP        9%   41%   50%      CamachoErnie      DoughertyJim    DehoyosGabriel

GuardadoEddie      RP       18%   32%   49%       ShouseBrian       StantonMike          BrazleAl

HunterTommy        SP        7%   59%   33%       CunnaneWill        JohnsonJoe        WegmanBill

NippertDustin      SP        2%   37%   61%      BackeBrandon     SturtzeTanyon         HollandAl

HollandDerek       SP        8%   54%   38%          LillyTed      RodgersBobby      SchourekPete

MadrigalWarner     RP        4%   37%   59%      WapnickSteve        ThayerDale      CapellanJose

GordonBrian        RP        4%   33%   63%        GreerKenny        GuerraMark         SnellNate

WoodMike           SP        5%   27%   67%   SteenstraKennie      SorensenLary       CondreyClay

CoreyBryan         RP        5%   27%   68%         RuhleVern         FowlerArt        PavlasDave

MendozaLuis        SP        5%   39%   56%         SwiftBill         WhiteSean        LaCossMike

HarrisonMatt       SP        4%   40%   56%         MutisJeff      JeffcoatMike      MathesAlfred

RupeJosh           SP        1%   21%   78%       CrabtreeTim          MecirJim        BookerGreg

PegueroJailen      RP        2%   22%   76%    GermanFranklyn          CookMike        WilmetPaul

StropPedro         RP        5%   27%   69%    GilfillanJason        BrossTerry    GraterolBeiker

BeavanBlake        SP        1%   29%   70%        EilandDave      MeadowsBrian      TewksburyBob

JenningsJason      RP        1%   22%   77%        BonesRicky      GironRoberto       NolesDickie

PerezMartin        SP        3%   27%   70%       AllenHarold     AndersonJimmy      WilsonTrevor

HurleyEric         SP        3%   25%   72%      TrombleyMike  DuckworthBrandon        CarlsonDan

BensonKris         SP        2%   17%   81%    FernandezJared       LazorkoJack    SpringerDennis

TurnbowDerrick     RP        3%   18%   79%        BeanColter      HoughCharlie      CorbinArchie

RamirezElizardo    SP        0%   10%   90%      MeadowsBrian       AbbottGlenn       JohnsonMark

PovedaOmar         SP        0%    9%   91%   StandridgeJason     GalvezBalvino         SmithSean

KikerKasey         SP        0%    6%   94%        RedmanMark        ScheidRich       PerishoMatt

GomezKennil        SP        0%    5%   95%          DaleCarl         ReedChris        FusonRobin

BallardMichael     SP        0%    3%   97%        RamseyMike     PhillipsHeath     AndersonCraig

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

FranciscoFrank          49%       91%       84%       1%       64%

O'DayDarren             44%       88%       12%       3%       66%

WilsonC.J.              34%       85%       63%       0%       65%

FelizNeftali            24%       84%       21%       0%       78%

BenoitJoaquin           25%       76%       51%       0%       61%

FeldmanScott             5%       63%        0%       1%       36%

MoscosoGuillermo         9%       60%        1%       2%       37%

GrilliJason             10%       59%       27%       0%       75%

HernandezOrlando        21%       48%       25%       3%       29%

McCarthyBrandon          5%       50%        0%       0%       28%

MillwoodKevin            2%       44%        0%       1%       29%

MathisDoug              12%       51%        0%       8%       47%

EyreWillie               8%       43%        0%       2%       60%

VaughanWilliam           6%       43%        3%       0%       56%

GuardadoEddie           18%       43%        1%       7%       37%

HunterTommy              1%       28%        0%       3%       12%

NippertDustin            2%       30%        1%       0%       23%

HollandDerek             1%       25%        1%       0%       15%

MadrigalWarner           2%       29%        1%       0%       23%

GordonBrian              3%       27%        0%       8%       20%

WoodMike                 4%       24%        1%       5%       27%

CoreyBryan               4%       24%        0%      19%       28%

MendozaLuis              2%       16%        0%       0%       61%

HarrisonMatt             1%       15%        0%       0%       29%

RupeJosh                 0%       14%        0%       0%       39%

PegueroJailen            1%       18%        5%       0%       24%

StropPedro               3%       25%        4%       0%       45%

BeavanBlake              0%        7%        0%       8%        8%

JenningsJason            1%       15%        0%       0%       17%

PerezMartin              0%        9%        0%       0%       41%

HurleyEric               0%        8%        1%       1%        5%

BensonKris               0%        6%        0%       1%        7%

TurnbowDerrick           3%       14%       41%       0%       64%

RamirezElizardo          0%        1%        0%       3%        3%

PovedaOmar               0%        2%        0%       0%        7%

KikerKasey               0%        1%        0%       0%        7%

GomezKennil              0%        0%        0%       0%        6%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

RodriguezIvan    .295 .332 .463 2601  9858   1403   2906  587  54  321 1346   520   1540 130  65  105

VizquelOmar      .272 .338 .354 2774 10029   1391   2730  436  75   79  915   987   1018 392 157   83

YoungMichael     .292 .340 .433 2051  8410   1177   2457  472  54  201 1038   621   1380 112  36  102

KinslerIan       .262 .331 .447 1812  7202   1176   1884  406  37  286  815   708   1040 279  48  106

JonesAndruw      .256 .337 .484 2007  7213   1158   1845  367  35  404 1226   833   1613 145  58  109

BlalockHank      .261 .318 .455 1313  5051    690   1317  275  28  216  732   414   1008  20   6   99

HamiltonJosh     .273 .335 .465 1111  4235    596   1155  224  28  178  697   386    915  68  25  105

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

FeldmanScott      144   124     0  4.60    482    365 2312   2304    301    891   1234    101

MillwoodKevin     211   178     0  4.30    540    531 3235   3347    371   1073   2354    104

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players, including the released and non-tendered are listed with their most recent 

teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 05, 2009 at 04:14 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:15 PM (#3379666)

They look like they could use Milton Bradley at DH. Right now Dan says their best option is Esteban German.

2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:21 PM (#3379673)

Ivan. So close to 3,000.

3. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:26 PM (#3379683)

With a nice deep bullpen and plenty of reasonable starter options the Rangers could make some noise. For once the problem is offense and they are lacking a solid middle of the order guy. It no longer looks like Josh Hamilton will be that guy, given his inability to stay on the field. Unfortunately, the organization is cash-strapped and will not be able to make the kind of free agent splash necessary to significantly upgrade the offense.

4. JoeHova Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3379696)

I'm so happy for Nelson Cruz. I was afraid he would never get a full-time chance after being awful in his first couple call-ups with the Rangers. For whatever reason, the Brewers never liked him much so they gave him away but it always seemed like he had the skills to be a good player despite allegedly having too long of a swing to hit major league pitching. He's probably too old to have an especially long career but it was nice to see him get to play full-time and reward the Rangers for their confidence by making the all-star team.

5. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 05:57 PM (#3379734)

Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers? I'm slightly surprised that ZiPS would project Scott Feldman to allow less hits than innings pitched after what looks to be a somewhat flukish .276 BABIP in 2009, with a good defense behind him.

6. JJ1986 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:04 PM (#3379745)

Darren O'Day 27 3.88 4 2 62 0 62.2 57 27 7 23 48 121

Good job, Omar.

7. John DiFool2 Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:06 PM (#3379749)

Poor Andruw-even 404 homers probably won't be enough to garner him significantly more than 5% of the vote. I remember how excited I was when he hit those 2 World Series home runs as a 19 y/o Sept. callup. Likely Shawon Dunston Disease was to blame (as in, a gifted young ballplayer tries to coast on his pure ability, and never masters the various subtle nuances of the game).

8. Skinner! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3379761)

Borbon's #1 comp is Steve Finley? That's pretty good news for the rangers. Although Endy Chavez wouldn't be so good.

9. Der-K's enjoying the new boygenius album. Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:31 PM (#3379790)

Any team in baseball could have had O'Day for peanuts (he was only R5 available becuase he'd been outrighted earlier in the offseason) - the Rangers lucked into his being on their roster when he decided to outperform reasonable expectations.

10. Walt Davis Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:39 PM (#3379806)

What an f'ing old team this is. I thought this was supposed to be a young, up-and-coming team. Other than Andrus, there's not a decent position player under 28 with both Davis and Smoak projecting as disappointments. The rotation is reasonably young but looking at that roster, I'm not sure there's anybody other than Kinsler, Andrus and Feliz that I would want on a 3-year contract.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:45 PM (#3379814)

Does ZiPS take into account team defense in projecting BABIP's for the individual pitchers?

Roughly. I look at the team defense regressed heavily towards the mean, which works surprisingly not-badly.

12. Posada Posse Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3379819)

Yup, thanks Dan.

13. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:49 PM (#3379820)

Interesting to see Andrus and Smoak looking so similar.

14. CWS Keith plans to [omitted] at [omitted] Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:53 PM (#3379826)

That's pretty ####### badass that El Duque still projects as a league average hurler at age 44 (even if it is only 38 IP).

15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:56 PM (#3379830)

"MillwoodKevin 211 178 0 4.30 540 531 3235 3347 371 1073 2354 104"

Guess he's going into the Hall with Andy Pettitte.

16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 05, 2009 at 06:58 PM (#3379832)

That Smoak projection surprises me by being so low.

And look at the catchers. Remember when Texas had a huge catching surplus?

17. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:05 PM (#3379845)

The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.

18. The Good Face Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:18 PM (#3379867)

The Rangers don't look as good as I thought. I think I'm more bullish on them than Zips--I'll take the over on Smoak and Neftali--but the rest of the offense is either meh or aging. One of Salty, Max or Teagarden could still, emerge, though. The pitching is pretty meh, too. I'm really surprised they don't look better.

It's kind of a weird team in that there's considerable upside potential there, but with so many players coming off injuries/ineffective seasons, any sensible projection system is going to hedge and show them as pretty mediocre. If they catch a few breaks with health and the development of young position players, I could easily see them contending. Probably a make or break year for Chris Davis and Saltalamacchia as future starters.

19. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:36 PM (#3379898)

Texas has too many catchers and Boston has too many pitchers.

20. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:43 PM (#3379909)

So is this the team/lineup?

3 Young 104
2 Kinsler 111
R Cruz 116
C Hamilton 111
L Byrd 104
1 Blalock 97
D Jones 87
C Saltamacchia 81
S Andrus 85

C Teagarden 75
SS Arias 67
IF German 87
OF Murphy 99
1B Davis 95

21. RJ in TO Posted: November 05, 2009 at 07:51 PM (#3379915)

Blalock and Byrd will almost certainly be gone, but the rest of that lineup is probably about right.

22. Vance W Posted: November 05, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3379998)

Jones will be gone as well. My guess would be that Davis and Smoak share 1b/DH duties. I guess the good news is that with the exception of Young, Byrd and the rookie Andrus, the whole team underperformed relative to expectations in '09. I have to think more of the team is likely to have good years in 2010.

23. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 06, 2009 at 01:20 AM (#3380333)

According to TR Sullivan, the Rangers are going to make every effort to resign Byrd, but they don't have a lot of expectations of doing so. They have some interest in Jermaine Dye. Blalock and Jones are gone.

The Rangers are still interested in signing Ben Sheets, who they had signed last year but whose contract was voided when he had to undergo surgery.

-- MWE

24. NBarnes Posted: November 07, 2009 at 12:15 AM (#3381582)

Boston has too many pitchers.

This is possible?

I'll also point out that Boston traded some of its pitching depth for a catcher relatively recently.

25. OBSLCommish Posted: December 03, 2009 at 06:35 PM (#3402343)

Kasey Kiker* 22 6.53 5 9 25 23 114.1 134 83 21 77 72 72

How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?

26. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 03, 2009 at 10:06 PM (#3402705)

How is Kiker projected to issue more walks than Ks when he's never even come close to that in the minors?

Well, his walk rate shot up a year ago while his K rate went up only a little bit as he made the AA jump. Perisho, the #3 comp generated by ZiPS, had a slightly better K/BB ratio in AA at 21 and was almost 1:1 in the majors at 22.

-- MWE

27. Rays&Sox; Posted: February 22, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3465583)

Do Orlando Hernandez's comps or projection change if you use his "official" DOB of 10/11/1969?

28. J. Bowman, upon reflection, does hate pants Posted: April 03, 2010 at 05:42 PM (#3491705)

Is there any possibility of projecting C.J. Wilson as a starter? Or is this beyond the capacity of ZiPS?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Thursday, November 05, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

Reader Comments and Retorts

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics

Syndicate