Offensive Projections
Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+
Adam Lind* lf 26 .277 .339 .488 152 582 84 161 38 2 27 102 53 119 1 1 117
Travis Snider* rf 22 .240 .332 .452 128 429 58 103 23 1 22 63 56 147 1 2 107
Aaron Hill 2b 28 .275 .323 .447 131 528 72 145 32 1 19 73 36 82 3 1 103
Lyle Overbay* 1b 33 .251 .339 .416 130 442 56 111 29 1 14 57 59 95 1 1 100
Vernon Wells cf 31 .260 .314 .430 128 507 70 132 29 3 17 69 40 73 7 2 96
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 27 .264 .331 .394 128 436 56 115 26 2 9 55 42 50 3 2 93
Edwin Encarnacion 3b 27 .233 .317 .397 132 464 68 108 23 1 17 72 50 103 3 1 89
Jose Bautista lf 29 .227 .324 .389 129 414 68 94 21 2 14 60 56 109 3 1 89
Randy Ruiz dh 32 .239 .301 .414 131 502 64 120 27 2 19 73 37 146 1 1 88
Brett Wallace* 3b 23 .246 .314 .385 134 525 75 129 23 1 16 63 38 135 1 1 85
Jeremy Reed* lf 29 .274 .320 .386 139 368 53 101 19 2 6 43 24 51 5 5 84
Jason Lane rf 33 .227 .307 .392 117 406 57 92 26 1 13 54 45 87 2 1 85
John Buck c 29 .221 .292 .422 95 308 36 68 15 1 15 46 27 97 0 1 87
Howie Clark* 2b 36 .260 .312 .361 77 288 39 75 15 1 4 31 21 28 1 1 79
Jorge Padilla rf 30 .263 .322 .352 118 392 55 103 16 2 5 30 28 63 11 8 80
Brad Emaus 2b 24 .241 .303 .350 118 452 54 109 24 2 7 49 38 81 5 2 74
Jesus Merchan 2b 29 .256 .304 .342 84 313 38 80 14 2 3 37 16 39 3 1 72
Rod Barajas c 34 .229 .277 .382 99 327 36 75 17 0 11 46 20 62 0 0 73
Mike McCoy ss 29 .226 .316 .304 123 411 52 93 16 2 4 33 53 82 20 6 67
Joey Gathright* cf 29 .258 .327 .302 120 368 50 95 9 2 1 24 32 62 21 9 70
Kyle Phillips* c 26 .244 .297 .338 95 352 30 86 15 0 6 35 25 73 0 1 69
Brian Dopirak 1b 26 .227 .275 .371 127 498 48 113 25 1 15 63 32 147 1 1 70
Chris Lubanski* lf 25 .227 .282 .365 88 326 39 74 15 3 8 34 26 98 5 3 71
Cody Haerther* lf 26 .231 .292 .332 74 238 25 55 13 1 3 24 19 51 1 1 66
Sea Bass Gonzalez ss 33 .231 .277 .354 107 376 39 87 17 1 9 39 21 79 1 1 67
Raul Chavez c 37 .246 .285 .338 61 195 19 48 9 0 3 22 9 31 0 0 66
J.P. Arencibia c 24 .222 .258 .370 116 465 48 103 25 1 14 58 20 133 0 0 65
Brian Jeroloman* c 25 .222 .258 .370 116 465 48 103 25 1 14 58 20 133 0 0 65
David Cooper* 1b 23 .218 .299 .282 108 404 51 88 15 1 3 44 45 98 10 6 57
John McDonald ss 35 .232 .271 .323 85 198 22 46 10 1 2 18 9 29 2 1 58
Brian Bocock ss 25 .188 .255 .245 107 400 51 75 15 1 2 39 35 123 9 8 35
Defensive Projections
Name CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Lind* Fr/68 Fr/68
Hill Vg/89
Overbay* Av/77
Snider* Fr/161 Fr/214
Wells Fr/88
Hoffpauir Av/115 Av/115 Pr/142
Encarnacion Pr/116
Bautista Av/97 Pr/122 Fr/97 Fr/97 Pr/97 Av/117
Ruiz Av/145 Fr/145
Wallace* Av/125 Pr/125
Reed* Av/75 Fr/84 Av/75
Lane Pr/76 Pr/76 Pr/76
Buck Fr
Clark* Vg/100 Av/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100 Fr/100 Av/100
Padilla Av/83 Av/136
Emaus Av/122 Av/144
Merchan Av/144 Av/144 Av/144
Barajas Av Fr/95
McCoy Av/135 Av/103 Av/116 Av/121 Av/121 Av/121
Gathright* Vg/94 Vg/89
Phillips* Av Fr/108 Fr/144
Dopirak Av/155
Lubanski* Av/134
Haerther* Av/80 Av/80
Gonzalez Av/100
Chavez Vg
Arencibia Av
Jeroloman* Av
Cooper* Fr/138
McDonald Vg/94 Vg/94 Vg/94
Bocock Ex/132
* - Bats Left
# - Switch Hitter
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO TOP MID BOT COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
FrasorJason RP 43% 43% 14% SpringerRuss MotaGuillermo BelindaStan
TalletBrian RP 17% 54% 28% McElroyChuck EmbreeAlan ForsterTerry
MarcumShaun SP 37% 49% 14% BoydOil Can EckersleyDennis TomkoBrett
AccardoJeremy RP 16% 46% 38% WallaceDerek WinnJim BatemanJoe
StewartZachary RP 17% 56% 27% GalehouseDenny NolesDickie ReiterGary
CampShawn RP 17% 54% 29% MadduxMike WhiteRick MurrayDale
McGowanDustin SP 36% 50% 14% WittMike DownsKelly HamiltonJoey
CarlsonJesse RP 16% 51% 33% McElroyChuck HickersonBryan SchatzederDan
RoenickeJosh RP 12% 36% 53% WilliamsFrank BulgerJason StoopsJim
LitschJesse SP 17% 53% 30% MathisDouglas WegmanBill TewksburyBob
RzepczynskiMarc SP 11% 55% 33% BirtsasTim SaundersTony DayleyKen
JanssenCasey RP 7% 42% 51% ArnoldTony SantiagoJose MontalvoRafael
CollinsTim RP 5% 33% 62% ClarkeStan JohnsonTyler ReyesDennys
WolfeBrian RP 4% 28% 67% GordonDon SchmackBrian McNabTim
HayhurstDirk RP 1% 25% 73% O’NealRandy PadillaJuan SilvaJose
RomeroRicky SP 2% 44% 54% MoyerJamie ParraManny ClaussenBrandon
FarquharDaniel RP 5% 23% 72% BowlesBrian ThurbergTom ChavezAnthony
CollazoWillie SP 3% 20% 78% OvermireStubby McConnellSam GeeJohnny
CecilBrett SP 2% 34% 65% JacksonDanny MarshallSean MoyerJamie
PurceyDavid SP 2% 30% 67% KruegerBill EstesShawn CollinsDon
RichmondScott SP 3% 27% 70% BittigerJeff VargasClaudio DarlingRon
MillsBrad SP 3% 31% 65% ClaussenBrandon BurroughsDarren KeislerRandy
ZinicolaZechry RP 1% 17% 82% MillsAlan DePaulaJulio PisciottaMarc
HennSean RP 2% 20% 78% JordanRicardo TolarKevin BurkeErick
GonzalezReidier SP 3% 26% 71% MitreSergio MacdonaldMichael HouseyJoe
EvelandDana SP 0% 20% 80% MurrayHeath DanielsJohn ThompsonDerek
RayRobert SP 2% 21% 78% RasnerDarrell MoehlerBrian SnyderJohn
RomeroDavis SP 2% 17% 81% LilliquistDerek IlsleyBlaise ShumakerAnthony
CastroFabio SP 0% 15% 85% HalperinMike HughesDusty CaraccioliLance
PerezLuis SP 0% 3% 97% WodnickiMike ThompsonDerek CoenenMatt
Player 130 ERA+ 100 ERA+ K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9
<1
FrasorJason 34% 81% 70% 2% 77%
TalletBrian 13% 60% 38% 0% 73%
MarcumShaun 13% 63% 17% 9% 31%
AccardoJeremy 16% 54% 11% 1% 61%
StewartZachary 13% 62% 18% 1% 80%
CampShawn 12% 58% 15% 5% 74%
McGowanDustin 9% 62% 19% 1% 71%
CarlsonJesse 12% 54% 26% 5% 65%
RoenickeJosh 8% 39% 53% 0% 67%
LitschJesse 3% 36% 0% 14% 32%
RzepczynskiMarc 1% 33% 40% 0% 87%
JanssenCasey 7% 36% 1% 8% 68%
CollinsTim 3% 32% 78% 0% 58%
WolfeBrian 3% 26% 0% 7% 49%
HayhurstDirk 1% 18% 5% 1% 42%
RomeroRicky 0% 12% 11% 0% 38%
FarquharDaniel 3% 21% 27% 0% 55%
CollazoWillie 2% 17% 0% 4% 37%
CecilBrett 0% 9% 3% 0% 30%
PurceyDavid 0% 8% 7% 0% 49%
RichmondScott 1% 9% 29% 0% 6%
MillsBrad 0% 11% 9% 0% 45%
ZinicolaZechry 1% 14% 3% 0% 65%
HennSean 1% 17% 40% 0% 58%
GonzalezReidier 0% 9% 0% 1% 57%
EvelandDana 0% 3% 1% 0% 47%
RayRobert 0% 6% 0% 0% 41%
RomeroDavis 0% 6% 1% 1% 17%
CastroFabio 0% 2% 0% 0% 35%
PerezLuis 0% 0% 0% 0% 48%
Pitching Statistics - Starters
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Shaun Marcum 28 4.18 6 5 18 18 97.0 93 45 14 31 76 104
Dustin McGowan 28 4.29 7 6 17 17 100.2 101 48 10 38 81 101
Jesse Litsch 25 4.67 9 10 24 23 135.0 148 70 18 40 75 93
Marc Rzepczynski* 24 4.69 9 10 27 27 136.1 140 71 11 81 119 93
Davis Romero* 27 5.02 7 9 31 20 120.0 136 67 20 38 83 87
Ricky Romero* 25 5.08 10 14 33 33 196.2 219 111 25 93 155 86
Kyle Drabek 22 5.21 4 5 16 15 86.1 93 50 11 42 63 82
Brett Cecil* 23 5.28 7 10 29 29 138.0 157 81 18 61 100 82
David Purcey* 28 5.29 7 10 27 27 148.0 160 87 17 82 113 82
Scott Richmond 30 5.30 8 11 27 24 137.2 146 81 24 59 117 82
Brad Mills* 25 5.34 5 7 18 17 87.2 96 52 11 47 67 82
Shawn Hill 29 5.35 2 2 7 7 37.0 45 22 4 12 23 80
Reidier Gonzalez 24 5.40 5 8 22 19 105.0 127 63 12 41 54 81
Dana Eveland* 26 5.49 6 10 30 26 144.1 166 88 17 73 96 79
Robert Ray 26 5.63 4 6 16 16 78.1 96 49 10 32 45 77
Fabio Castro* 25 5.65 5 9 33 22 127.1 146 80 17 72 80 77
Zach Jackson* 27 6.12 5 10 35 19 129.1 164 88 20 53 76 70
Luis Perez* 25 6.23 5 11 26 24 121.1 148 84 15 79 73 70
Lance Broadway 26 6.49 5 12 33 22 140.0 180 101 21 70 74 66
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+
Scott Downs* 34 3.58 2 2 61 0 55.1 52 22 5 21 49 122
Jason Frasor 32 3.76 4 3 55 0 52.2 46 22 5 22 51 116
Brian Tallet* 32 4.17 3 3 64 0 73.1 71 34 7 34 63 104
Jeremy Accardo 28 4.22 2 2 50 0 49.0 49 23 5 21 37 103
Zachary Stewart 23 4.24 3 3 32 9 76.1 77 36 7 33 60 103
Shawn Camp 34 4.26 3 3 54 0 61.1 62 29 6 22 49 102
Jesse Carlson* 29 4.41 4 4 72 0 67.1 68 33 8 23 56 99
Kevin Gregg 32 4.50 5 6 73 0 70.0 66 35 9 35 66 95
Josh Roenicke 27 4.63 2 2 43 0 44.2 45 23 5 24 41 94
Casey Janssen 28 4.73 2 3 42 4 59.0 66 31 6 21 36 92
Tim Collins* 20 4.90 6 7 47 0 68.0 64 37 8 47 68 89
Brian Wolfe 29 5.03 3 4 48 2 62.2 70 35 8 22 38 87
Dirk Hayhurst 29 5.04 4 5 48 5 85.2 98 48 11 31 63 86
Daniel Farquhar 23 5.17 2 3 41 0 47.0 47 27 5 33 39 84
Willie Collazo* 30 5.24 5 8 40 13 113.1 130 66 16 42 58 83
Zechry Zinicola 25 5.37 3 4 46 0 58.2 65 35 7 35 40 81
Sean Henn* 29 5.40 2 3 41 1 50.0 52 30 6 32 43 81
Merkin Valdez 28 5.56 1 2 42 1 43.2 48 27 5 30 36 77
Steven Register 27 5.66 2 5 60 0 62.0 74 39 10 27 37 75
* - Throws Left
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Name PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
LindAdam LF 22% 27% 21% 18% 12% FalkBibb HallMel DyeJermaine
HillAaron 2B 29% 18% 19% 19% 15% HillenbrandShea MoranBilly MalzoneFrank
OverbayLyle 1B 3% 9% 14% 35% 38% ChamblissChris AldreteMike SiebernNorm
WellsVernon CF 11% 13% 25% 29% 22% LandreauxKen BellGus MayDave
HoffpauirJarrett 2B 10% 12% 17% 27% 35% BarrettMarty MantillaFelix WilliamsDavey
EncarnacionEdwin 3B 2% 8% 18% 31% 41% SpiezioEd PerezEduardo HuskeyButch
BautistaJose LF 1% 5% 8% 19% 68% VoigtJack GilesBrian MokanJohnny
RuizRandy DH 1% 3% 6% 21% 69% DropoWalt GalarragaAndres ThompsonRyan
WallaceBrett 3B 0% 2% 9% 26% 63% WilliamsEddie CredeJoe JacobyBrook
LaneJason RF 1% 3% 5% 13% 78% CallisonJohnny NorenIrv BellBeau
ClarkHowie 2B 1% 2% 7% 21% 69% RojasCookie GantnerJim StrippJoe
MerchanJesus 2B 0% 1% 3% 11% 85% StennettRennieWhiteheadBurgess GriffinDoug
EmausBradley 2B 1% 1% 3% 12% 84%LombardozziSteve EasleyDamion HowieMark
BarajasRod C 1% 5% 10% 31% 53% LyonsBarry MartinezBuck NorrisSteven
DopirakBrian 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% MurrayRich HarveyKen DaigleLeo
PhillipsKyle C 0% 1% 5% 23% 71% LowryDwight AllansonAndy FabregasJorge
ChavezRaul C 0% 1% 5% 27% 67% AlomarSandy GirardiJoe SchmidtWalter
HaertherCody RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% WetherbyJeff SwannPedro ChristianEddie
ArencibiaJ.P. C 0% 1% 3% 13% 84%ManriquezSalomon BordersPat FoxJake
McDonaldJohn SS 0% 0% 0% 4% 96% LillisBob NewsomeSkeeter CastroJuan
CooperDavid 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% RogowskiCasey ThomasTroy PritchettChris
BocockBrian SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% BasakChris GilbertShawn PettiniJoe
Name .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+ 45 2B 10 3B 30 HR 30 SB
LindAdam 20% 11% 35% 15% 21% 0% 34% 0%
HillAaron 17% 4% 16% 5% 5% 0% 9% 0%
OverbayLyle 5% 10% 5% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0%
WellsVernon 7% 1% 8% 2% 2% 0% 4% 0%
HoffpauirJarrett 10% 7% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
EncarnacionEdwin 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%
BautistaJose 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
RuizRandy 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0%
WallaceBrett 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
LaneJason 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
ClarkHowie 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
MerchanJesus 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EmausBradley 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BarajasRod 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DopirakBrian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
PhillipsKyle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ChavezRaul 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
HaertherCody 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
ArencibiaJ.P. 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
McDonaldJohn 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CooperDavid 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
BocockBrian 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Name BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
EncarnacionEdwin .243 .327 .417 1196 4163 584 1010 216 11 162 628 447 917 30 11 93
HillAaron .272 .321 .428 1650 6493 866 1763 375 17 202 809 447 1029 42 19 97
OverbayLyle .268 .353 .436 1444 4922 642 1319 349 13 150 645 650 1035 17 8 106
LindAdam .267 .328 .461 1599 6051 838 1614 367 19 257 974 540 1283 13 10 107
WellsVernon .271 .321 .449 1835 7246 1029 1963 417 38 267 1032 540 1040 113 35 100
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
Reader Comments and Retorts
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The starting rotation is going to get absolutely destroyed.
It's also an improvement from last year's line.
I firmly expect them to pull 5 league average or better SPs out of their ass.
Best Marcs from baseball history:
- Marc Hill, the catcher who failed to adequately fill Dave Rader's shoes with the late-70's Giants, before becoming a longtime backup with the White Sox.
- Marc Wilkins, who pitched more than 200 relief innings for the Bonifay-era Pirates.
- Marc Valdes, who was, I believe, the Marlins' first ever draft pick. His career highlight was probably being traded for Russ Johnson.
- Marc Sullivan, whom nepotism brought a career as Red Sox backup catcher, but did not play any role in their 1986 playoff run.
- Marc Newfield, who was traded along with Ron Villone TWICE.
- Marc Kroon, who has had a pretty good career in Japan.
Can Rzzzzzzzzski outstrip the accomplishments of all these men to become baseball's greatest Marc?
Keep in mind that the defense will also be much worse than last year - Gonzalez is nothing special at short, and Encarnacion is much, much, much, much worse at 3B than Rolen. They'll also be replacing Rios in the OF with either Lind or Snider. The starters are going to put up ugly ERA+ because so many more balls are going to drop in compared to last year.
Good point.
This team's gonna suck.
That's the worst part. I can stand bad baseball. I can spend a lot of time watching a team that loses 94 games. But this season is going to be a grind, because there's nothing interesting about this team. There's no speed, no power, the defense isn't good anymore, and Halladay won't start every fifth game. I don't even think I have a favourite player on this team, except for Jason Frasor. Jason Frasor, it's absurd, but that's what I've been reduced to: claiming that a relief pitcher with a foshball and Trachsel-esque tempo is my favourite player.
Come to think of it, the only entertaining thing that might come from going to the games is watching the inevitable trainwreck that will be the Lind/Wells/Snider or Bautista outfield. Or watching John McDonald be the fifth outfielder.
It won't once it starts having to throw 5 innings every game.
Who is Mike McCoy?
Yup. Go to bbref and have a look at some of the starters' ERAs once Rolen was dealt. Good fun; if I recall correctly, Richmond was solidly over 10 in a decent sample.
I believe that he had more surgery on his wrist this offseason. As a result, I don't see a 110-120 OPS+ in his near future.
Yep. He did have wrist surgery this offseason, which isn't a good sign. What I didn't know was that Encarnacion also had wrist surgery. This offense could be even worse than the projections.
That said, his name probably isn't worth learning.
Quibble: Hill and Lind were two of the top five HR hitters in the league last year.
With Snider, Bautista, Ruiz -- even Wells -- power is about the only thing the Jays have going for them this year, imho.
But, overall....they're gonna suck.
True, I almost went back to edit that to say 'no offense': PECOTA projects the team to have the least runs scored in the AL. Or 'no leadoff hitter', Jose Bautista is currently Gaston's leading contender for the spot. But I'd certainly expect Hill to regress from last year.
Also: for pitching, this is the first year without Brad Arnsberg as pitching coach. I'm not sure if that will have a major effect on the staff, but it'll be interesting to see if the defense and/or new pitching coach (and injuries, I suppose) lead to the Jays' magic neverending well of league average pitching dries up. If it does, it'll be an ugly season.
This is the most dismal outlook they've had going into the season in a long time. That's just a horrible collection of "hitters". Can McDonald still play SS at an above-average level? The one thing JP seemed really good at was fielding a team of guys who could suck up some balls, which made the pitching look pretty decent. I agree with Ryan that this is gonna be a huge departure from that model. Aside from Hill, is there an above-average fielder in the lineup? Buck has to be good at something, right? There's not even an interesting collection of NRIs who could steal playing time.
Is there some philosophy behind the rebuilding effort other than "get good players"? What type of team is AA trying to build here? JP had a plan, albeit a poorly-executed one (I bought it for about a year and a half)...anything similar going on now?
All so true.
I expect a lot of solo HR and 7-2 losses.
EDIT: and that Brett Wallace projection is strikingly pessimistic. Is there something in his performance record I am missing?
Maybe this'll be the year he puts it together with the bat...probably not but...
Better known for breaking the jaw of teammate Jeff Tabaka in a hotel lobby brawl.
Man, what a lousy team. I'll admit, I hadn't realized just how stinky they were. I'd swear there were some Jays moved where I thought "yeah, that looks good" but I'm darned if I can reverse engineer what those might have been after looking at the roster. Can't hit, can't field, can't pitch ... maybe can't even stay healthy. And, yeah, those Wallace and Encarnacion projections are depressing.
OK, picking up Buck on the cheap wasn't a bad move -- nothing special but average-ish.
And not a lot of trade chits left -- Hill obviously, Overbay will probably get moved at the deadline but not for much, and Downs and Frasor (who won't bring much).
I'm used to the Jays always being at least decent, kinda like the Astros. But it would be a miracle this year or, seemingly, any time in the next 3-5 years.
This is apparently such a shock to all of us that nobody's even pointed out that the pitcher and hitter ODDIBEs are out of order (or is it just such a shock to me that I didn't notice when it was).
Now, on Marcum's top comp, is the first name Oil and the middle name Can?
I'll take the over on him.
the lineup has too many serious holes, IMO, for that to happen- C, SS, and maybe CF. I think EE will rebound with the bat. I don't see Snider being as bad as his projection. Hill might not regress as much as we're all expecting. Too bad they couldn't lock up Scutaro...
I remember I requested Jonathan Schuerholz's projection one year, and I think Bocock's is better. Though Bocock actually made the major leagues, unlike Schuerholz.
I'm enthusiastic about the young pitching too, but more in a 2011 view. I expect this year to be ugly as they wade through the options and figure out who is cut out for the starting rotation, who is cut out for the bullpen, and who just needs to be cut.
I'll make sure and do Campbell.
Yeah, I did Jeroloman and Arencibia back-to-back so I looked at the wrong line for one of them when entering it into DMB. Not sure which one on first glance at the moment (new laptop and I don't have ZiPS stuff on it yet), but the player with the wrong projection won't have a good projeciton.
Jonny Nepotism!
The son of Doug Drabek is now in the majors? I'm having an "I'm old" moment.
He's not in the majors yet. You've probably got until the All-Star break before the "I'm old" moment kicks in.
Is it my imagination or is Hoffpauir a noticeably better choice than Encarnacion to play third base? I mean, I know Encarnacion's got the contract, but wouldn't you be doing the young pitchers a favour by playing the better defender (and the slightly better hitter)?
Eric Young's son is, though.
Snider is their only hope there, but not right away at least. Lind had a superstar-ish year in '09, and could improve on it.
It's over here.
Hooray! Love to see that comp for a Jays pitcher. (McGowan)
EDIT: Also I missed the acquisition of Dana Eveland and the return of Zach Jackson. Not that those guys are likely to do much, but when did that happen?
Personally, I'm treating McGowan as a write-off until he starts a few games. His ZiPS comps could be Joey Hamilton, Mike Sirotka, and Juan Guzman and I wouldn't care.
Edit: Eveland happened last week, Jackson in early January.
The Jays are a rebuilding team now.
This team isn't nearly as bad as many in this thread seem to think.
If everyone hits like ZIPS says they will, it'll be a pretty bad team. I don't think that's very likely, though. With Snider, ZIPS is projecting no growth, Encarnacion to hit worse at age 27, and Hill and Lind to both settle in between 2008 and 2009. They could score some runs despite punting SS and C. The problem, as Ryan pointed out, is that their D will be substantially worse. Hill and Overbay are both pretty good, but the positives end there.
John Buck slugged .484 last year, though in limited time. Not bad. Given how bad the Jays' production at catcher was last year, he'll probably be an improvement.
I think it's the second part that's going to torpedo an otherwise potentially interesting case study. I figure the Jays are going to have less pitching continuity from 2009 to 2010 than your average team, not more.
The Blue Jays were weird. I'd seriously be question ZIPS if it got most of the Jays lineup last year <U>correctly</U> because only a poorly designed system would project some of those actual results.
There's just not really any way he can grow unless he drops his K-rate -- and so far his major-league K-rate is right in line with his minor-league. His projected walk rate is solid and, as I said, he's projected to hit about 350/650 on-contact. It's possible he could go all Mark Reynolds but it's unlikely; more likely is he'll have a brief period of Wily Mo Pena usefulness. Hopefully he'll pull a Justin Upton and cut down on the Ks.*
It might normally make perfect sense to think that a 21-year-old with a 98 OPS+ would improve at age 22. But I expect Dan to come along any moment now and say that it doesn't happen that way for guys who K 1 per 3 AB.
* I see Upton hit 406/720 on-contact last year. That's not likely to happen again. ZiPS projects 382/706 which seems a little high for a projection.
Snider's had better walk rates than Pena though, which should be cause for optimism, no? (that's a real question) Pena never walked more than 36 times a season in the minors, 22 in the majors, whereas Snider's been over the 10% mark in his minor league career, and slightly below it as a 21 year-old i the majors. That suggests he's got a clue about the strike zone, no?
Mum mum mum mah
Bo bo bo Bocock, bo bo Bocock,
Mum mum mum mah
Not the results, because I too expect them to finish last in the division, but the idea that there is nothing to root for and nothing to look forward to is just wrong.
Aaron Hill and Adam Lind are worth cheering for. Kyle Drabek and Brett Wallace are players to look forward to as they come up this year.
They are going to lose but AA is sending the team in the right direction.
Hill was a highly touted prospect I think? I'm pretty indifferent on him but I think a case could be made that he can easily surpass that projection across the board.
Wells probably isn't a great candidate to rebound this year if what was said about having surgery on his wrist during the off-season is true. I think he could eventually bounce back and be a fairly productive player but he will never make that contract look good.
I've never been a fan of Overbay, Hoffpauir, or Bautista and I'm close to giving up on Encarnacion but I think you could make a case for them to surpass their projections.
The pitching is even harder to project, a lot of their players have very small sample sizes and there have been so many injuries in recent history with their staff it's hard to tell what they will do. The Jays definitely aren't a strong team but I could definitely see them doing a better than we see above.
Welcome to the shoes of your average Royals' fan for the past 15 years or so.
Don't feel bad -- I have Ray Boone and Gus Bell cards from my youth and their grandsons have aged out of baseball.
Wouldn't it be better to be the worst, if you're going to lose 95+ anyway?
At least get the #1 pick out of your shitty season.
I'm still going to go with the Royals. Monarchs, Missionaries, Cyan Birds, and Natinals in that order.
I don't think they'll be the worst either, but I do think they're likely to be in the bottom 20%. Between an extremely young (and potentially volatile) starting rotation, very little obvious upside on offense (and little to no help in the high minors), a bullpen likely to be overworked, the unbalanced schedule, and the Jays' tradition of underperforming their pythag, this team looks like a lock for 90+ losses.
Off hand, the only team that I would confidentally bet to be worse than the Jays is the Royals.
This is easy to say, but I'm going to go to games and follow the team next year, and I'd like to see them win.
Other than the loss of Halladay, what's going to be worse this year?
I realize that's a big loss, but still, he's only one guy.
3B and SS. Encarnacion and Sea Bass don't exactly match up well with Rolen and Scutaro.
One guy worth 6-7 WAR, on a team that only managed to win 76 games.
They are better at RP... and that is it.
Where they are REALLY better is in the minors, which is why I am not wringing my hands like some. I predict that the Jays win 70-75 games this year, but then immediately start to rise in 2011.
It might normally make perfect sense to think that a 21-year-old with a 98 OPS+ would improve at age 22. But I expect Dan to come along any moment now and say that it doesn't happen that way for guys who K 1 per 3 AB.
This is also a guy whose minor league numbers came against AA pitching at age 20 and AAA pitching at age 21.
I don't know why to completely disregard the idea a talented young hitter can cut down on his strikeouts to some extent.
I'm not sure "optimism" is the right word but, yes, his walk rate is a definite positive. It makes him more valuable than other high-K players and it means it is possible that he can develop into a productive hitter with that K-rate. Now, as you later imply, does a good walk rate suggest that he has a better chance of cutting down his Ks than a high-K guy with a low walk rate. Seems logical but I have no idea if there's empirical evidence in favor of that or not. But, if anything, for a 22-year-old, I'd guess the odds of the bottom falling out and a return to AAA are higher (ZiPS seems to agree given the 45% "poor" ODDIBE).
Presumably Dan's too busy so I'll just keep talking out of my ass until he gets here to share some actual data-driven opinions. :-) K-rates tend to be pretty stable. Obviously some guys do improve their K-rates but I don't know that there's any particular (data-driven) reason to think Snider is one of those. To be successful with that K-rate, you need to have a good walk rate and crush the ball. ZiPS projects Snider to a good walk rate and a pretty solid 350/650 on-contact production and he still comes out to a 99 OPS+. To be substantially better than that, he's either got to drop the K-rate or start crushing the ball. Thing is, with that K-rate, even if he steps up into Ryan Braun* territory (roughly 380/720), that still translates to an overall BA of 253 and overall SLG of 480. Add in the walk rate and that's an overall OPS of 820 which I think comes out around a 115 OPS+ -- that's probably a realistic upside projection for his 2010 season. But as far as I know, despite his youth, there's no empirical reason to think that Snider will follow that development path.
I agree that Pena wasn't the best name to bring up, but I didn't mean to suggest that Snider will share Pena's fate. I meant more that, in his early years, Pena had years where he managed an OPS+ in the 105-115 range by crushing the ball (his career on-contact numbers are a little better than Snider's so far). I'm sure Snider will have some years like that too -- and ZiPS gives him roughly a 30% chance of having one in 2010. I'm just cautioning not to get carried away until you see Snider establish either a lower K-rate or higher on-contact rates.* Until one or both of those things happen, his offensive upside is quite limited.
* For example, Justin Upton's big break out featured both. The question is whether he can sustain.
It's not just Doc (and Rolen and Scutaro as Ryan brought up). Losing Brad Arnsberg was in my opinion as crushing a loss as Doc.
Arnsberg's ability to bring seemingly unready AA and AAA pitchers to the majors and turn them into major-league average starters was uncanny, and I think unmatched in the modern game. He might be the best guy in baseball at working with young pitchers (and why I have a suspicion the Astros are about to get a lot better). Arny hardly ever had a guy fail on him... everyone they brought up at least battled to a draw, especially the guys with unprepossessing stuff. The Purceys he had a bit more trouble with, but still the Jays have relied very, very heavily on young pitching the last several years, and those pitchers have been very successful. And now their very fine pitching coach is gone, without fanfare but I bet with pretty devastating effects.
The loss of Rios will hurt the team defensively, and they now are a Wells hamstring tweak away from Jeremy Reed or Joey Gathright being the starting CFer.
It's been mentioned, but I don't think you can really overemphasize how much this team lost at SS. Scutaro was - by some metrics - one of the most valuable players in the AL (or even baseball) last year, and now he's been replaced by Gonzo, who was one of the least valuable players in all of baseball. Losing Halladay and Scutaro and replacing them with Gonzalez and Morrow are two major losses for a team that wasn't very good to being with.
Edit:
I think there's a real chance they'll simply mail it in.
I think this is another issue. Cito's a lame duck who is unliked by part of the clubhouse. Worse, he's been granted a bizarre retirement tour. Managament seems to be content with tanking this year and picking up a high draft pick. I'd expect everyone to be professional about it, but if ever there was a season for a player to take it easy on the basepaths, to let a ball drop instead of going for the diving catch, to basically follow the Hillebrand 'play for yourself, play for you contract' code, this is it.
Considering his age,I feel pretty confident he will continue to get somewhat more selective and probably improve his contact rate on pitches in the zone as well. Don't be surprised at all to see that K rate dip under 30% as soon as 2010.
He's awful young and has already shown he can move the needle on key indicators.
But how is a statement like that at all useful when talking about a player as young and inexperienced (at the MLB level) as Travis Snider?
It goes without saying that almost every MLB player out there had to improve significantly from their 22 year old talent level to become good MLB players. It certainly isn't very useful as far as projecting anything. You won't project him to be a good player until he becomes a good player?
Well, for a lot of guys, that's true (although ZiPS sees Bruce and Escobar becoming good players based on mean projections).
That's why projection guys are making more of an effort to present the whole array of possibilities in a concise a manner as can be done easily.
In this case, even if the mean projection isn't Snider being a good player, ZiPS does present an estimation that gives Snider a really good shot at being a good player in 2010. The whole line for Snider for OPS+
160+ 1-in-699
140+ 1.4%
130+ 4.6%
120+ 10.2%
110+ 24.5%
100+ 48.0%
90+ 73.6%
80+ 90.8%
60+ 97.7%
Snider is risky and people generally overrate the probability that a young player will improve.
While BABIP is much more of an ability for a batter than a pitcher, it does regress heavily and there's a pretty solid ability-based upper limit. A big part of Snider being a star at this moment involves him maintaining something that nobody ever does. That's a formula for a very risky player in the short-term.
ZIPs generally seem to be conservatives on guys that havn't played in the majors. and Wallace's preformance last year wasn't really up to his reputation anyway. he hit in the low .800s with only averagish control of the strike zone at best. for someone taughted of being a polished college hitter with great eye and power, he hasn't shown a whole lot of those last year. obviously prospects are not exactly the most predictable players out there. but just looking at his minor league line so far there are some definate red flags when you see a "polished" college hitter destroy the low minors then hit only ok in the high one.
We probably need one more season of him in the him minors to make more definitive take on his ability, which also means that if he comes up right now it's probably a disastor.
Given the context of the scheduel, I'm not even sure if the Royals would suck more than the Jays. the Jays have no one on the calibler of a Zach Grienke, and the Royals have at least some mild upsides in the likes of Gordon and Butler. if the wise up a little and not carry so many epic holes they might even contend for .500 in that division.
FWIW: Cairo project the Jays = Royals, PECOTA has them as 3 games worse than the Royals, and Chone's depth chart method have them as a wooping 8 games worse than the Royals (YIKES) .
What's more, the Royals probably can contend in that division if they somehow fluke or breakout to a season slightly over .500 (which is definately within the realm of possibility), the Jays would still be like 15 games back if they played .500 ball.
Part of that is strength of schedule. I'm pretty sure if you flipped KC and Toronto you wouldn't see that kind of gap.
they're playing in a division that have 2 awesome team, a very good one with high upside, and one that was bad but also have amazing upsides. where as KC is playing in a division where pretty much every team have massive holes
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
I'm curious, just how much do you think or how much does your model think a young player can improve? Obviously it is a case by case bases but ZiPS is pretty much pessimistic across the board on young players rarely ever projecting a young player to break out before they do. Even the Heyward projection (arguably the top prospect in all of the minors with a pretty good resume to back it up) isn't that optimistic. Same with Strasburg who is really the only other player in the running by most of the industry leaders.
As far as BABIP, players with lots of power and/or speed often carry higher BABIP's than the normal hitter correct? Howard's career BABIP is .333, Pujols' is .321, Cust's is .331, Ramirez's is .344...I'm sure there are more examples and plenty that disprove it but hitters with lots of power and/or speed can sustain high BABIPs.
Snider turned 22 last week and has posted ISOs near .200 every level he has been (despite rushing through the minor leagues) which is plenty of power to suggest he could maintain a BABIP above average. Do you really think he only has a 50% chance of improving? I think a 20-21 year old holding their own at the MLB level would have a better than 50% chance of improving. I was also shocked at the Lind projection, he is only 25 and you have him regressing an awful lot.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
I need to ask Sean or Nate if I'm the only one that can't seem to communicate this after years and years of doing this or if it's just because my projections tend to be tethered to a more discussion-based area.
I'm curious, just how much do you think or how much does your model think a young player can improve?
Depends on the player.
In general, the typical under-25 year-old taking a big step forward will lose about a third of their improvement the following year.
I did the following to illustrate why Sandoval has been projected the way he has the last two years.
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