BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: 2010 ZiPS Projections

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

The good news? Strasburg and Storer are projected to be the best starter and reliever, respectively, on the Nats in 2010. The bad news? Two pitchers that have never pitched in the major leagues are projected to be the best starter and reliever.

I know I said this last year, but I still think the Nationals could be a pretty decent team soon, despite the owner avoiding investing his windfall into the team like the plague. The offense projects to be pretty good, the primary problem being the Nats are an NL team with two designated hitters in Dunn and Willingham and both those players are key parts of the offense. It’s a tricky situation for the Nats and they might be placed into a situation where they have to trade one of the two for a good bit less than ideal value. Unfortunately, Dunn is as bad as first baseman as he is an outfielder.

The pitching, of course, was a disaster this season, with the team finishing with a 5.02 ERA in a pitcher’s park. They may not have been quite that bad consider the team’s rather lackluster defense, but they were still pretty bottom of the barrel. Sadly, Jordan Zimmermann won’t even step on the field until 2011 after elbow surgery. The Nats could have an adequate rotation if Strasburg has a great debut and Lannan continues the blood sorcery that enables him to get batters to weakly hit changeups not much slower than his fastballs and the team shells out big money on someone like Lackey. Yes, I’m laughing too at the last one.

It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams.

Offensive Projections 

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS  OPS+ 

Adam Dunn*               lf  30  .256  .389  .512 155 531  86 136 26  1 36 103 112 178  3  1   143 

Ryan Zimmerman           3b  25  .285  .353  .501 148 589  98 168 37  3 28  94  62 111  2  1   129 

Josh Willingham          lf  31  .264  .363  .491 125 428  66 113 27  2 22  67  55  99  4  2   130 

Dmitri Young#            1b  36  .288  .361  .424  52 170  19  49 11  0  4  21  19  29  0  0   113 

Elijah Dukes#            rf  26  .254  .354  .432 101 347  48  88 20  3 12  55  49  80  8  8   113 

Willie Harris*           cf  32  .249  .347  .397 124 325  50  81 17  5  7  30  44  63 13  6   103 

Michael Morse            1b  28  .271  .321  .420  90 314  37  85 19  2  8  48  19  59  1  1   100 

Daryle Ward*             1b  35  .260  .332  .399  88 208  21  54 11  0  6  27  23  43  1  0    98 

Ian Desmond              ss  24  .270  .334  .388 121 441  52 119 25  3  7  34  38 107 15  4    96 

Cristian Guzman#         ss  32  .296  .326  .409 108 443  63 131 22  5  6  41  19  58  4  4    99 

Austin Kearns            rf  30  .237  .341  .377 106 337  46  80 16  2  9  42  46  76  2  2    96 

Jesus Flores             c   25  .260  .318  .417  73 223  24  58 12  1  7  37  17  59  0  1    99 

Nyjer Morgan*            cf  29  .281  .339  .359 112 423  78 119 17  5  2  38  30  71 35 14    91 

Josh Bard#               c   32  .251  .320  .371  94 291  26  73 18  1  5  35  29  50  0  1    88 

Jorge Padilla            rf  30  .272  .329  .361 118 393  54 107 16  2  5  30  27  57 11  8    88 

Norris Hopper            rf  31  .281  .326  .342  92 310  40  87 12  2  1  23  21  26 13  5    83 

Justin Maxwell           cf  26  .224  .303  .361 112 388  56  87 14  3 11  41  40 130 22  6    80 

Alberto Gonzalez         ss  27  .267  .304  .360  85 247  28  66 13  2  2  26  12  26  1  1    80 

Joel Guzman              3b  25  .243  .287  .380 126 460  51 112 23  2 12  59  26 107  3  2    80 

Matt Whitney             3b  26  .235  .297  .350 132 460  46 108 24  1  9  45  38 122  1  1    76 

Chris Marrero            1b  21  .228  .291  .361 116 435  44  99 21  2 11  49  34 120  1  3    77 

Wil Nieves               c   32  .254  .299  .333  70 213  18  54  9  1  2  24  13  36  1  0    72 

Pete Orr*                3b  31  .245  .292  .358 128 371  49  91 15  6  5  38  21  77 13  6    76 

Danny Espinosa#          ss  23  .211  .303  .345 137 513  70 108 25  4 12  56  60 165 20 11    76 

Rogearvin Bernadina*     cf  26  .244  .306  .324  84 312  39  76 12  2  3  22  27  77 18  8    72 

Seth Bynum               2b  29  .227  .273  .357 123 428  45  97 19  2 11  47  27 132  4  3    70 

Michael Burgess*         rf  21  .205  .274  .338 137 517  47 106 23  2 14  57  43 185  6  6    66 

Jamie Burke              c   38  .231  .270  .333  43 117  10  27  6  0  2  12   7  22  0  0    63 

Defensive Projections

Name               CThr 1b      2b      3b      ss      lf      cf      rf      

Dunn*                   Pr/177                          Pr/143          Pr/194  

Zimmerman                               Ex/93                                   

Willingham                                              Pr/98           Pr/98   

Young#                  Pr/207                                                  

Dukes#                                                  Av/170  Pr/104  Av/170  

Harris*                         Av/131  Av/131          Vg/95   Av/93           

Morse                   Av/120          Fr/120  Pr/128  Fr/120          Fr/120  

Ward*                   Pr/111                          Pr/111          Pr/111  

Desmond                         Vg/147          Vg/147                          

Guzman#                         Av/115          Fr/115                          

Kearns                                                                  Vg/76   

Flores             Av                                                           

Morgan*                                                 Ex/75   Ex/133          

Bard#              Pr                                                           

Padilla                                                 Av/83           Av/136  

Hopper                                                  Vg/101  Vg/73   Vg/66   

Maxwell                                                 Av/86   Av/135  Av/86   

Gonzalez                        Av/63           Fr/121                          

Guzman                  Av/112          Av/112          Fr/90           Fr/90   

Whitney                 Av/188          Fr/188                                  

Marrero                 Av/170                          Fr/199          Fr/199  

Nieves             Av                                                           

Orr*                            Av/67   Av/87   Pr/87   Av/87   Fr/87   Av/87   

Espinosa#                                       Vg/122                          

Bernadina*                                              Vg/107  Av/107  Vg/107  

Bynum                           Av/120          Fr/142                          

Burgess*                                                                Av/134  

Burke              Av   Fr/100                                                  

* - Bats Left

# - Switch Hitter

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Name               PO    EX    VG    AV    FR    PO          COMP 1          COMP 2          COMP 3

DunnAdam           LF   68%   25%    5%    1%    0%  TartabullDanny      KinerRalph    LuzinskiGreg

ZimmermanRyan      3B   54%   34%    9%    2%    1%   RamirezAramis      ChavezEric     JonesWillie

WillinghamJosh     LF   41%   35%   15%    7%    2%    FlagsteadIra     TaylorDanny    BriggsJohnny

YoungDmitri        1B    6%   26%   32%   30%    6%      SeguiDavid     BergmanDave        WertzVic

DukesElijah        RF    7%   22%   25%   28%   18%    KearnsAustin       GrossGabe      GeigerGary

GuzmanCristian     SS   14%   27%   37%   17%    5%     JurgesBilly     ApplingLukeGrudzielanekMark

HarrisWillie       CF   13%   22%   36%   23%    6%     MilnerEddie    ThompsonMilt       LandisJim

DesmondIan         SS   24%   35%   30%    9%    1%     FrancoJulio     BlauserJeff    LozadoWillie

MorseMike          1B    1%    6%   13%   43%   37%     QuinlanRobb  GutierrezJesse      RussellRip

WardDaryle         1B    1%    6%   10%   38%   46%       MabryJohn        WertzVic     CroweGeorge

MorganNyjer        CF    6%   16%   34%   31%   14%    ThompsonMilt  PodsednikScott     SanchezAlex

FloresJesus         C    9%   34%   33%   22%    3%       HayesBill     LindseyBill  MacfarlaneMike

KearnsAustin       RF    1%    4%   11%   28%   57%  ArnovichMorrie     HarperTommy     StegmanDave

HopperNorris       RF    0%    1%    2%   10%   87%       OwensEric PalmeiroOrlando   RobinsonKerry

PadillaJorge       RF    0%    1%    3%   12%   84%       OwensEric        CowensAl    HatcherBilly

BardJosh            C    1%   14%   31%   40%   14%    CasanovaRaul         SaxDave     DeckerSteve

MaxwellJustin      CF    0%    4%   21%   41%   34%        PorterBo     PowellDante     TerreroLuis

GonzalezAlberto    SS    1%    3%   24%   45%   26%   BurnettJohnnyWhiteheadBurgess   GuerreroMario

GuzmanJoel         3B    0%    0%    2%   14%   83%        LeonJose     MoronkoJeff       BellRicky

OrrPete            3B    0%    2%    4%   13%   81%         FoxAndy     BrookensTom      BurkeJamie

NievesWil           C    0%    0%    3%   27%   70%       SpohrerAl     HeintzChris    WilsonJimmie

WhitneyMatthew     1B    1%    1%    0%    1%   96%         NenDick       StarkMatt      LaCockPete

BernadinaRoger     CF    0%    0%    3%   22%   75%  HeathcoteCliff   BergeronPeter  WinninghamHerm

MarreroChristophe  1B    0%    0%    0%    1%   99%GuerreroInocenci       JonesRyan      DensonDrew

EspinosaDanny      SS    0%    3%   16%   35%   46% MachadoAnderson     BrumleyMike     LopezFelipe

BynumSeth          2B    0%    0%    1%    5%   94%      CottonJohn       CarusoJoe       HansenJed

BurkeJamie          C    0%    0%    0%    3%   97%   HemsleyRollie      GuerraMike    DifeliceMike

BurgessMichael     RF    0%    0%    0%    0%  100%       BrownAndy   MartinezChito   RobnettRichie

Name              .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 140 OPS+  45 2B   10 3B   30 HR   30 SB

DunnAdam               9%     64%     50%     48%      1%      0%     75%      0%

ZimmermanRyan         28%     20%     42%     25%     18%      1%     34%      0%

WillinghamJosh        10%     32%     35%     26%      0%      0%     13%      0%

YoungDmitri           37%     33%      9%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%

DukesElijah            5%     23%      8%      5%      0%      1%      0%      0%

GuzmanCristian        43%      5%      2%      2%      0%     13%      0%      0%

HarrisWillie           3%     17%      3%      2%      0%      6%      0%      0%

DesmondIan            13%      8%      1%      1%      0%      1%      0%      0%

MorseMike             16%      4%      3%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WardDaryle            12%     12%      2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MorganNyjer           27%      9%      0%      0%      0%      8%      0%     80%

FloresJesus           12%      4%      4%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

KearnsAustin           2%     11%      1%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

HopperNorris          24%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

PadillaJorge          16%      5%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BardJosh               5%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

MaxwellJustin          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      9%

GonzalezAlberto       15%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

GuzmanJoel             1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

OrrPete                3%      1%      0%      0%      0%     17%      0%      0%

NievesWil              9%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

WhitneyMatthew         2%      1%      2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BernadinaRoger         2%      1%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      2%

MarreroChristophe      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

EspinosaDanny          0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      1%      0%      6%

BynumSeth              0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BurkeJamie             9%      2%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

BurgessMichael         0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%      0%

Pitching Statistics - Starters

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Stephen Strasburg         21   4.18  10   9  20  20   114.0  115   53  14   36  113  103 

Jordan Zimmermann         24   4.31   5   5  22  22   117.0  117   56  14   43  106  100 

John Lannan*              25   4.39  11  12  33  33   194.2  203   95  22   70   99   99 

J.D. Martin               27   4.71   7   9  28  19   109.0  120   57  15   30   66   92 

Garrett Mock              27   4.93   6   9  37  20   122.1  138   67  13   51   98   88 

Bradley Meyers            24   5.08   6   9  24  23   118.2  140   67  12   46   73   85 

Marco Estrada             26   5.24   6  10  31  25   132.1  153   77  16   52   88   83 

Collin Balester           24   5.33   9  14  29  29   150.1  173   89  22   57   91   81 

Shairon Martis            23   5.34   6  10  29  28   153.1  174   91  21   65   82   81 

Scott Olsen*              26   5.40   6  10  26  26   143.1  165   86  23   56   89   80 

Horacio Ramirez*          30   5.48   4   7  32  14    92.0  111   56  12   32   40   79 

Luis Atilano              25   5.53   5   9  24  20   109.0  133   67  15   37   48   78 

Ross Detwiler*            24   5.58   6  11  30  29   137.0  165   85  14   73   93   78 

Matt Chico*               27   5.59   3   6  19  18    85.1   99   53  13   42   51   77 

Craig Stammen             26   5.59   6  11  29  26   140.0  172   87  19   52   74   77 

Livan Hernandez           35   5.67   7  14  29  29   176.1  224  111  23   59   81   76 

Aaron Thompson*           23   6.04   4   9  23  23   117.2  147   79  16   62   60   72 

Jesse English*            25   6.15   5  12  27  22   105.1  121   72  17   70   64   70 

Jeff Mandel               25   6.35   5  12  25  24   123.1  164   87  18   54   61   68 

Zach Segovia              27   6.41   3   9  38  13    92.2  123   66  14   45   49   68 

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K ERA+ 

Drew Storen               22   3.78   2   1  29   0    33.1   32   14   4   12   32  115 

Tyler Clippard            25   4.01   5   4  71   0    85.1   74   38  10   44   86  108 

Sean Burnett*             27   4.18   3   2  77   0    66.2   59   31   7   34   51  103 

Jason Bergmann            28   4.42   4   4  77   0    77.1   78   38   9   32   61   98 

Doug Slaten*              30   4.53   2   2  54   0    43.2   47   22   5   17   30   95 

Saul Rivera               32   4.70   5   6  69   0    84.1   93   44   7   39   56   92 

Ron Villone*              40   4.88   2   3  64   0    51.2   54   28   6   29   37   89 

Ryan Mattheus             26   4.97   2   3  36   0    38.0   39   21   5   19   28   87 

Logan Kensing             27   5.07   2   3  54   0    60.1   64   34   8   29   47   85 

Mike MacDougal            33   5.15   1   2  58   0    57.2   61   33   5   41   43   84 

Dave Williams*            31   5.26   2   3  40   0    53.0   60   31   8   23   36   82 

Atahualpa Severino*       25   5.54   4   7  45   0    65.0   70   40   8   43   46   78 

Victor Garate*            25   5.81   1   3  53   0    57.1   63   37   7   40   44   75 

* - Throws Left

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player             PO       TOP   MID   BOT            COMP 1            COMP 2            COMP 3

StorenDrew         RP       35%   48%   17%       HaynesHeath   StricklandScott           NenRobb

ClippardTyler      RP       22%   62%   16%       JacksonMike         PlunkEric      BochtlerDoug

StrasburgStephen   SP       42%   47%   12%   BondermanJeremy        MyersBrett     VazquezJavier

BurnettSean        RP       19%   53%   29%       ChoateRandy        MohlerMike        NortonPhil

ZimmermannJordan   SP       33%   53%   14%         SmithPete        MyersBrett     MillwoodKevin

LannanJohn         SP       24%   60%   16%        LathamBill      SimmonsScott       JacomeJason

BergmannJay        RP        8%   53%   39%      RigganJerrod         WertzBill   NakamuraMicheal

SlatenDoug         RP       11%   45%   43%        HavensBrad       VenafroMike       EischenJoey

RiveraSaul         RP        5%   40%   55%     GryboskiKevin     McDowellRoger     BernardDwight

MartinJ.D.         SP       14%   52%   34%          SmithRoy     TelghederDave        ParkerClay

VilloneRon         RP       12%   30%   58%       StantonMike       FasseroJeff        McMahonDon

MockGarrett        SP        6%   51%   43%    JacksonRoy Lee     WilliamsBrian       NolesDickie

MattheusRyan       RP        8%   35%   57%     BennettShayne       BorowskiJoe       MarquezJeff

KensingLogan       RP        3%   28%   69%   DonnellyBrendan      HarvilleChad       VillanoMike

MeyersBradley      SP        5%   43%   52%    StableinGeorge     NunezClemente     McDowellRoger

MacDougalMike      RP        6%   28%   66%         ThomasRoy      BochtlerDoug          LeeDavid

EstradaMarco       SP        3%   35%   62%        DavisJason      JohnsonJason      BirkbeckMike

WilliamsDavid      RP        2%   18%   80%          MahayRon       EischenJoey       ClementsPat

BalesterCollin     SP        1%   28%   71%  ChristiansenClay        SnyderJohn       IrelandEric

MartisShairon      SP        1%   25%   74%     CummingsSteve          PooleJim           RoweTom

OlsenScott         SP        1%   25%   74%       CeruttiJohn   SoderstromSteve         SnareRyan

RamirezHoracio     SP        1%   13%   85%    OvermireStubby       BallardJeff        FossasTony

AtilanoLuis        SP        1%   20%   79%   ChristopherMike       LincolnMike          FreedDan

SeverinoAtahualpa  RP        1%   17%   82%       MancusoPaul      WilliamsMike         BrownChad

DetwilerRoss       SP        1%   18%   82%     ThompsonDerek         SmithMatt         ViningKen

ChicoMatt          SP        1%   17%   82%       GeorgeChris       FloresRandy     PulsipherBill

StammenCraig       SP        0%   16%   84%     RasnerDarrell  StechschulteGene        AhearnePat

HernandezLivan     SP        1%   13%   86%       NagyCharles      JohnsonJason       TerrellWalt

GarateVictor       RP        1%   12%   88%     HamiltonJimmy        MiglioJohn        RomeroJ.C.

ThompsonAaron      SP        0%    6%   94%     LockhartBruce       GeorgeChris      HinckleyMike

EnglishJesse       SP        0%    5%   95%        DevineJoey        MusserNeal         OjalaKirt

MandelJeff         SP        0%    2%   98%       PauleyDavid      TorresMelqui          YettRich

SegoviaZach        SP        0%    1%   99%       GuzmanPedro       BonineEddie         RodneyLee

Player             130 ERA+  100 ERA+    K/9 >8  BB/9 <2   HR/9
<1

StorenDrew              35%       75%       63%      11%       70%

ClippardTyler           17%       75%       84%       0%       56%

StrasburgStephen        12%       65%       78%       6%       51%

BurnettSean             14%       65%       11%       0%       58%

ZimmermannJordan         8%       57%       51%       1%       46%

LannanJohn               5%       52%        0%       2%       55%

BergmannJay              5%       48%       15%       0%       58%

SlatenDoug              11%       48%        4%       5%       70%

RiveraSaul               4%       34%        1%       0%       86%

MartinJ.D.               2%       32%        0%      19%       33%

VilloneRon               9%       36%       12%       1%       65%

MockGarrett              0%       22%       16%       0%       72%

MattheusRyan             8%       34%       10%       0%       53%

KensingLogan             2%       25%       14%       0%       47%

MeyersBradley            0%       15%        0%       0%       72%

MacDougalMike            5%       23%       13%       0%       78%

EstradaMarco             0%       11%        0%       0%       44%

WilliamsDavid            1%       15%        3%       1%       36%

BalesterCollin           0%        5%        0%       0%       20%

MartisShairon            0%        6%        0%       0%       29%

OlsenScott               0%        5%        0%       0%       12%

RamirezHoracio           1%       10%        0%       4%       41%

AtilanoLuis              0%        4%        0%       3%       27%

SeverinoAtahualpa        1%       10%        4%       0%       48%

DetwilerRoss             0%        3%        1%       0%       70%

ChicoMatt                0%        5%        0%       0%       23%

StammenCraig             0%        2%        0%       0%       35%

HernandezLivan           0%        4%        0%       3%       36%

GarateVictor             0%        6%       13%       0%       39%

ThompsonAaron            0%        1%        0%       0%       33%

EnglishJesse             0%        1%        0%       0%       17%

MandelJeff               0%        0%        0%       0%       24%

SegoviaZach              0%        0%        0%       0%       22%

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Name               BA  OBP  SLG    G    AB      R      H   2B  3B   HR  RBI    BB     SO  SB  CS OPS+

DunnAdam         .244 .377 .490 2626  9021   1467   2200  434  13  587 1565  1848   3026  84  45  128

GuzmanCristian   .276 .310 .387 1944  7667   1042   2118  351 114   91  666   353   1080 143  91   83

ZimmermanRyan    .272 .342 .468 2413  9565   1496   2601  560  43  408 1410  1022   1838  39  24  117

Player              W     L     S   ERA      G     GS   IP      H     HR     BB     SO   ERA+

LannanJohn        162   184     0  4.40    493    483 2882   2967    344   1108   1500     98

All figures in % based on projection playing time 


Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information

is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting

the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 

most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top

quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

2010 ZiPS Projections Archive

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

These projections were sponsored in part by:

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 01, 2009 at 08:55 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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1. bigboy1234 Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:37 PM (#3400574)

For Strasburg were just AFL stats looked at? Or do you look at San Diego State stats too?

2. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:42 PM (#3400578)

Had to look at SDSU stats. I probably only translate college stats for 1 or 2 players a year when I absolutely have to. Assume much larger than normal error bars.

3. Mr Dashwood Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:45 PM (#3400580)

The company line is that the Nationals have a shedload of great young pitchers. I'm at a loss to spot many up there, unless the natural aging curve for a 23/24 y.o. means that Detwiler, Balester and Martis ought to see their ERAs fall to league average. (I don't count Strasburg's projection yet. Not enough professional evidence.)

So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?

4. RJ in TO Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:52 PM (#3400587)

So, based on those career lines, is Dunn a HoFer? Is Zim?

I'd say Zim is easily with that line, given his defense, and position.

Dunn, I have no idea, since I'm sure that most defensive metrics will show that he's giving back a tremendous amount of his offensive value while lumbering around in the outfield.

5. aberg Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:52 PM (#3400589)

I'm glad that Zimmerman is developing into something resembling a "great" player. I saw one of those games after he was called up his draft year where they played him at SS. Very cool.

6. rlc Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:54 PM (#3400592)

Dunn* Pr/177 Pr/143 Pr/194

ZiPS really needs Bd, Ho, or Ug.

7. Russlan is not Russian Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:00 PM (#3400602)

It would also help if the Nats overcame their apparent love for relievers that walk a lot of batters, a fairly unique fetish among major league teams.

It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.

I'll take the over on Flores' OPS+.

8. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:02 PM (#3400605)

It's not that unique, I'm sorry to say.

Lots of teams end up with relievers that walk a lot of batters, but the Nats seem to actually want them. Like they're at the grocery store and see OMG MIKE MACDOUGAL IS AVAILABLE BUY BUY!!!!

9. Danny Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:19 PM (#3400611)

I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.

10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 01, 2009 at 10:51 PM (#3400630)

Ya he's never been ranked that high on prospect lists -- he's got a shot at the All-Star team. On the other hand, Nyjer Morgan's glory day seems to be over.

11. bigboy1234 Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:16 PM (#3400647)

Dan, just to make sure here, but did you use AFL stats for Strasburg? And if so, do you use AFL stats for all players?

12. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2009 at 11:50 PM (#3400662)

Que? By OPS+, Willingham is projected to his best ever and Dunn to his 2nd best ever? Don't look right.

On Zimmerman and the HoF -- that line might deserve it and 2400+ games is a lot for a 3B but no way does he make it. A 117 OPS+, no major milestones, at 3B. That sort of a line for a 3B hasn't come close to cutting it with the BBWAA unless you're Brooks Robinson (Santo, Nettles, Boyer, Bando, Cey, Bell, Hack, soon Ventura, soon Rolen) so it would take a major shift in BBWAA standards. That shift might happen by the time he's done (we're seeing some already) or Zimmerman might win a dozen gold gloves.

13. ugen64 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:01 AM (#3400671)

I hope that in 15-20 years, baseball writers will be looking at things like defensive metrics and positional adjustments for HoF voting. And if they do, Zimmermann has an extremely good chance of making it, IMO.

Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+. According to BBRef, he was a +14 run third baseman over his career - I think Zimmermann can hover around +10 for his career, and make up the difference with better hitting.

I wonder, should the Nats just eat most of Dunn's salary and move him to an AL team for as good a haul of prospects as possible? He would definitely be the best DH on the market, and at least he can be a warm body in the field, if necessary (which you can't say of Thome, Vlad, or Matsui). Assuming John Lackey doesn't sign with them, it's not like they're gonna add a ton of payroll.

14. Mike Emeigh

Posted: December 02, 2009 at 01:18 AM (#3400739)

I had no idea Ian Desmond was so good.

His bat has really developed over the past couple of years. The Jeff Blauser comp is pretty apt, I think - 10-15 HR and enough walks to post a decent OBP.

-- MWE

15. Rally Posted: December 02, 2009 at 01:55 AM (#3400762)

Kudos for even attempting to project a guy with no pro experience. Strasburg will be interesting.

16. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 06:18 AM (#3400919)

Also, Brooks Robinson wasn't that good a hitter - 104 OPS+.

Right, he just won 300 gold gloves. And played in 2900 games.

If you take Brooks from ages 21-35, he had a 110 OPS+ in 2300 games and 9500 PA and that is comparable.

17. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:00 PM (#3401056)

Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line. I love the fact that he's still only 25.

The 3000+ career K's by Dunn were certainlu eye-catching, but I don't think he'll stick around that long.

18. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3401066)

What's always struck me as strange about Adam Dunn is that he's not as slow as one would think.

19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:29 PM (#3401096)

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...

20. Gamingboy Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3401109)

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...Page 1 of 1 pages

My mind just broke.

21. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:45 PM (#3401122)

Adam Dunn was a shortstop in high school. Try to picture that for a minute...

He probably had a lot less muscle then!

The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.

22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 03:59 PM (#3401131)

"If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster."

LOL

23. Walt Davis Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:44 PM (#3401423)

Zimmerman would certainly make the HOF with that line.

I should let this go but ... this is just plain wrong and ignorant of history.

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B, elected to the HoF with an OPS+ below 130 (Wade Boggs):

Brooks Robinson, 16 gold gloves, greatest fielding 3B of all time, WS hero, 29000 games played (nearly all at 3B)
Pie Traynor, elected in 1948, 320 BA, considered the greatest fielding 3B to that time

Players with at least 1000 games at 3B and at least 8000 PA and an OPS+ between Robinson/Traynor and Boggs not elected. Not only not elected, not even close:

Ron Santo 125 (also 5 gold gloves)
Bob Elliott 124
Ron Cey 121
Darrell Evans 119 (2700 games overall)
Sal Bando 119
Stan Hack 119 (301 BA career)
Ken Boyer 116 (5 gold gloves)
Robin Ventura 114 (6 gold gloves -- I'm jumping the gun but I'll guess under 10%, probably one and done)
Toby Harrah 114 (plus 800 games as a SS)
Graig Nettles 110 (2700 games, 2 gold gloves ... more if not for Brooks)
Buddy Bell 109 (2400 games, 6 gold gloves)
Eddie Yost 109

The guys elected? Schmidt (548 HR), Mathews (512 HR and he had to wait a few years), Brett (3154 hits, 305 BA), Boggs (3010 hits, 328 BA). Noticing any pattern there?

Feel free to claim that Zimmerman might make it with that line. Feel free to claim that standards are changing so you think that by the time he's done, his defense will be properly valued and his offense properly adjusted for position and he'll probably make it. But there is absolutely no basis to claim that he would certainly make it with that line. As I said, those guys didn't get a real sniff. Don't forget, Santo was one and done -- something embarrassing enough they put him back on the ballot and he's still puttering around through the VC process.

Ryan Zimmerman is not better than Ron Santo. He's not better than Ken Boyer or Robin Ventura or Graig Nettes and probably not better than Buddy Bell. It will take an enormous shift in BBWAA standards for a 3B with that line to get a serious look.

There are three issues. First, the BBWAA has just always had unsupportably high standards for 3B. Second, given that history, every candidate's defense will pale in comparison to Robinson so candidates need offense that won't pale in comparison to Boggs/Brett. I want folks to recognize that last bit particularly. At the moment, the minimum HoF standards for 3B offense are Wade Boggs and George Brett (or Chipper Jones if you prefer). That is well above the minimum line for 1B and corner OF. Third, for a Zimmerman type, any voter will be able to take a look and see those same dozen names, including 5 who were also good defenders, and conclude that a 3B with a 115 OPS+ and a good glove doesn't stand out and isn't HoF-worthy.

It's a joke to me that Santo and Nettles aren't in. The other guys you can ding for having short careers (this would be Zimmerman's main argument if he put up that line, assuming almost all those 2400 games came at 3B) but Boyer, Ventura and Bell certainly wouldn't be bad choices either. Of the guys who weren't so good defensively, I might put Evans in but he had fewer than 1400 starts at 3B. I'd give Harrah a look because of the years at SS -- I wonder if he was actually pretty good defensively (most SS who move to 3B are good 3B) and from 24-33 he put up a 122 OPS+ which is quite nice for a SS/3B but obviously didn't do much of note outside that 10-year peak. Stan Hack's got a case (nice OBP!). The others probably deserved more votes than they got but are clearly not HoFers in my opinion so I can't get too upset about that.

24. Chris Needham Posted: December 02, 2009 at 07:55 PM (#3401435)

The things about Dunn is that while he's not really a sloth out there, he's amazingly clumsy. If he were a pro wrestler, he'd be the Shockmaster.

That's what I love about him!

At first, for example, he doesn't have terrible range. He can stretch with that big frame. He can catch the ball. Occasionally he looks pretty good.

But every now and then, say, like 1 time out of 20, he just decides to field the ball the same way I would. It's like a live grenade. Or it's like a hot laser that just goes right through him somehow.

25. Boxkutter Posted: December 03, 2009 at 11:36 AM (#3401893)

It seems you expect Nyjer Morgan to have a significant drop off in production. You have him hitting 20 points below his career average (admittedly, a small sample size), and his OBP to do the same. But he is only turning 30 years old halfway through next season, so he can still be considered to be in his "prime" years. Actually, the projection here would make it his worst season ever as a pro baseball player. Just wondering the reasoning for this. Because of his skillset, his BABIP is naturally high, so I am assuming you don't believe it to be inflated and for him to come back down to earth.

Also, in future projections, or maybe just starting next year, is there a way that groundball percentages for pitchers can be added? I know a lot of people who check these ZIPS out are people in simulation leagues, and that is as important as K and BB rates I believe. A lot of pitchers we can get a rough estimate based on previous seasons, but guys like Strasburg and Storen that you have here don't have much pro experience, so it causes curiosity.

26. Mr Dashwood Posted: December 03, 2009 at 12:50 PM (#3401905)

Boxkutter makes an interesting point about Morgan's BABIP. His career BABIP is .357, and his lowest was with the Pirates last year, at .325. With the Nationals' he managed an astounding .398. The 2009 NL league average was .299.

Through age 29, Tim Raines' career BABIP was .323, against a 1989 NL average of .277 (about a 7.5 per cent less at the start of a mini-era when hitting fell off rapidly). If you adjust Morgan's .357 by 7.5 percent, you get .330, so he's a better BABIPer than Raines, who was quite high in comparison to his league.

So if ZiPS expects a regression to the league mean, then maybe Morgan's projection is a little low.

(Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?)

EDIT: It will be interesting to compare Morgan's ZiPS with Skip Schumaker, another high BABIP type (not as high as Morgan) who shows up in Morgan's age 28 comps.

27. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: December 03, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3402652)

At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...

28. TerpNats Posted: December 03, 2009 at 09:47 PM (#3402675)

At least I'll have elbow room again. Just wait'll two years from now, we'll only be two years away from being two years away from being two years away...

The curse of the Washington baseball fan.

29. Copronymus Posted: December 07, 2009 at 06:55 AM (#3405351)

Incidentally, if I'm reading Morgan's BB-Ref page right, he went to high school in Alberta. Is he a closeted Canadian?

Apparently, he left home at 16 to play junior hockey in Canada. Here's an article that gets into it a little more. I'm guessing he's the most distinguished alumnus of the North Okanagan Kings of the Kootenay International Junior Hockey League.

30. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 07, 2009 at 07:21 AM (#3405355)

From Wikipedia:

Morgan occasionally refers to himself as "Tony Plush", which he says is his "gentleman's name".

Awesome.

31. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:48 PM (#3460793)

Request for Jerry Owens, por favor.

32. Dan Szymborski

Posted: February 15, 2010 at 09:52 PM (#3460797)

275/331/346 for Owens.

33. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: February 15, 2010 at 10:08 PM (#3460806)

Thanks Dan!

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