Any who downloaded in the first half-hour, the link previously went to 2011 projections as a result of an error, not as a result of every player in baseball magically hitting their 2011 projections, sadly enough.

As always, thanks, Dan.

Any chance we could get a download that's a ZIP instead of a RAR? I'm at work, and for whatever reason, the IT department didn't give us any software to open RARs...

Thanks so much, Dan.
I know that the minors haven't seen the drop in offense that the bigs did this year, but some of the AAA hitting translations look "low" to me. Did the level factor(s) change? (Note: I've done zero thus far to come up w/ my own ballpark figurings for this season.)

Minors didn't just not drop in offense, many leagues had an increase in offense - the PCL ERA of 5.13 this year was the highest it's been since the PCL absorbed some of the less-crazy offensive American Association environments. The Texas League had its highest ERA since 2000. California League, hardly Petco already, had a higher than usual year as well.

International and Eastern, traditionally better pitcher leagues, were right around where they usually are.

Nothing in the nuts and bolts have changed, just relative league offense. I always test common at-bats from year to year to make sure it's the offensive level, not the mix of players, that changed the offensive level and as almost always, it wasn't (there are just too few guys way too good for levels to make a dent, plus they usually get promoted).

Vlad, can I just email you the CSVs? They're only a megabyte each uncompressed.

Vlad, can I just email you the CSVs? They're only a megabyte each uncompressed.

That'd be great, thanks.

Minors didn't just not drop in offense, many leagues had an increase in offense - the PCL ERA of 5.13 t

PCL was at .286/.359/.448
Albuquerque has a 1.23 park multiplier- so we're talking about a .309/.375/.489 context


the Dodgers were at .256/.323/.398

Aside for adjusting for league difficulty (PCL versus MLB) that's one hell of a run environment context shift

I mean a guy hitting .309/375/.489 at Albuquerque- is a league average hitter for the PCL- JD Closser hit .297/.378/.486 - basically he was a PCL average hitter- and Dan has his MLE at .241/.306/.345- which is pretty much what you'd expect a AAA average player to hit for the Dodgers- or as Bill James once said about mles- sometimes there is a lot of air in those numbers

Cool - that's what I figured, just thought I'd ask (I've only looked at some IL guys in trad. pitchers parks thus far - haven't peeked at the pitcher file yet).

Dan:

Like Vlad above, can you email me the csv files ?

thanks

Can you e-mail me from the e-mail for which you'd like to receive it? (DSzymborski@gmail.com)