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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, November 14, 20102011 ZIPS Projections - Arizona DiamondbacksUsually, fans of about 25 of the 30 teams in baseball are convinced that their bullpen is horrible and the main thing preventing their team from being among the best in baseball. You see stuff like people pointing at 20 blown saves and thinking that they would magically turn into wins if only they had an awesome closer and an extra setup guy, ignoring the fact those 20 blown saves generally consist of 8 games the team won anyway, 4 games with more than 1 blown save, a couple games that they came back to tie before losing, and that the awesome closer would blow a few of those games anyway.
In the case of Arizona fans, while they’re not a reliever or two away from winning the NL West, the bullpen really was a mess of historic proportions. The Diamondbacks finished 15th in the NL in ERA and had an ERA+ for 89, but in an usual situation, the bullpen is mainly responsible for the rankings being that low, putting up a 5.74 ERA compared to the 4.40 ERA of the starters. The good news? There’s a bit of bad luck there. No, the relievers aren’t very good, but you’d almost have to intentionally play bad pitchers to allow that many runs in relief and even then, relief ERAs are so volatile that you’ll still luck into 2 or 3 guys having good seasons.
In an awful season, a few things did go right. Dan Hudson went 7-1, 1.69 ERA in 11 starts for Arizona, providing ZiPS ample reasons to continue its yearly Hudson fetish. Ian Kennedy stopped floating curves and started being able to strike out major leaguers consistently despite an unimpressive fastball. Jerry DiPoto wasn’t able to get the “interim” in “interim GM” taken off his employment file.
Without knowing what Arizona does this offseason, I’d still put them below .500, but they should at least get the win total back into the 70s.
Next up: Cleveland
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Justin Upton R RF 23 .292 .369 .505 158 590 96 172 36 6 26 99 73 161 21 8 125 Kelly Johnson L 2B 29 .275 .350 .478 143 513 81 141 35 6 19 65 59 109 11 6 113 Adam LaRoche L 1B 31 .262 .332 .470 142 523 72 137 36 2 23 89 55 147 1 1 106 Stephen Drew L SS 28 .272 .333 .448 151 581 83 158 35 11 15 69 54 105 8 3 101 Mark Reynolds R 3B 27 .227 .324 .472 152 538 90 122 24 3 34 97 74 214 13 5 104 Chris B. Young R CF 27 .246 .329 .446 155 561 87 138 34 3 24 80 69 153 19 6 99 Miguel Montero L C 27 .267 .332 .439 103 330 44 88 22 1 11 47 31 69 0 1 99 Brandon Allen L 1B 25 .246 .331 .442 149 545 76 134 30 4 23 85 64 154 10 4 99 Gerardo Parra L LF 24 .282 .331 .407 160 535 64 151 28 9 7 57 38 98 11 7 91 Cole Gillespie R CF 27 .251 .328 .405 127 439 59 110 26 6 10 58 48 104 11 4 90 Jeff Bailey R 1B 32 .251 .332 .402 114 423 58 106 23 4 11 49 43 97 3 1 90 Tony Abreu B SS 26 .281 .307 .417 115 374 44 105 25 4 6 42 13 71 4 2 86 John Hester R C 27 .259 .303 .432 94 317 43 82 23 4 8 45 19 79 5 3 89 Paul Goldschmidt R 1B 23 .246 .306 .428 160 626 78 154 39 3 23 84 51 219 4 1 89 Ollie Linton L LF 25 .282 .362 .361 144 518 68 146 19 8 2 45 55 142 20 15 89 Collin Cowgill R RF 25 .250 .318 .405 111 440 63 110 25 5 11 61 39 96 14 6 87 Ryan Wheeler L 3B 22 .269 .323 .390 134 543 63 146 31 4 9 62 37 114 4 4 85 Rusty Ryal R LF 28 .267 .312 .409 123 374 44 100 20 3 9 37 18 98 2 4 86 Doug Deeds L RF 30 .259 .315 .405 117 417 54 108 29 4 8 37 32 116 5 5 86 Ryan Roberts R 2B 30 .248 .321 .385 124 408 52 101 23 3 9 47 44 87 11 4 83 Ryan Church L RF 32 .247 .311 .395 108 304 40 75 22 1 7 39 26 72 3 1 82 Konrad Schmidt R C 26 .265 .309 .378 113 426 40 113 26 2 6 47 22 89 3 3 78 Marc Krauss L LF 23 .249 .306 .388 159 626 88 156 28 4 17 72 50 192 1 3 79 Carlos Corporan B C 27 .242 .290 .394 81 269 23 65 17 3 6 35 14 63 2 2 76 Drew Macias L CF 28 .230 .320 .353 126 391 54 90 19 4 7 37 47 80 8 6 75 Mark Hallberg R 2B 25 .257 .317 .333 124 436 51 112 23 2 2 43 36 53 8 4 70 Bobby Crosby R SS 31 .240 .300 .360 96 292 34 70 18 1 5 31 25 54 3 3 71 Chris Rahl R RF 27 .251 .289 .365 124 414 56 104 21 4 6 39 20 114 13 9 69 Sean Coughlin L C 26 .217 .297 .359 91 309 33 67 15 1 9 41 34 73 0 1 70 Kory Casto L 3B 29 .234 .300 .351 89 308 34 72 13 1 7 37 29 76 2 3 69 Matthew Davidson R 3B 20 .226 .292 .360 142 536 54 121 32 2 12 72 41 172 0 3 69 Eddie Rogers R 3B 32 .251 .295 .338 102 370 44 93 17 3 3 39 19 64 10 6 64 Cyle Hankerd R 1B 26 .241 .300 .338 121 394 36 95 21 1 5 49 24 73 1 4 66 Augie Ojeda B 2B 36 .218 .299 .273 78 165 19 36 7 1 0 12 16 18 1 1 51 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Justin Upton VG/215 Kelly Johnson AV/109 Adam LaRoche AV/91 Stephen Drew AV/79 Mark Reynolds AV/133 AV/133 Chris B. Young AV/105 Miguel Montero AV Brandon Allen AV/128 AV/150 Gerardo Parra VG/137 FR/250 AV/167 Cole Gillespie VG/122 PO/84 VG/138 Jeff Bailey AV/127 FR/136 FR/122 Tony Abreu AV/137 VG/105 FR/143 John Hester FR Paul Goldschmidt FR/155 Ollie Linton AV/57 FR/81 AV/124 Collin Cowgill AV/105 FR/149 FR/133 Ryan Wheeler AV/135 FR/108 FR/113 Rusty Ryal AV/157 FR/101 FR/128 FR/119 AV/132 Doug Deeds AV/127 AV/122 AV/149 AV/98 Ryan Roberts AV/173 AV/116 AV/142 FR/121 AV/145 Ryan Church AV/105 PO/99 AV/61 Konrad Schmidt AV AV/143 Marc Krauss FR/136 FR/174 FR/174 Carlos Corporan AV Drew Macias VG/108 AV/152 VG/110 Mark Hallberg AV/70 VG/99 AV/117 Bobby Crosby AV/91 AV/115 AV/121 AV/120 Chris Rahl VG/100 AV/90 VG/93 Sean Coughlin FR AV/182 Kory Casto AV/134 PO/112 FR/116 FR/122 FR/122 Matthew Davidson AV/145 Eddie Rogers VG/146 AV/115 FR/105 FR/93 Cyle Hankerd FR/151 PO/132 PO/132 Augie Ojeda VG/68 VG/116 AV/114 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Brandon Webb R 32 3.56 8 4 14 14 93.7 90 37 7 29 74 124 Daniel Hudson R 24 3.56 15 9 32 30 172.0 154 68 17 58 151 124 Ian Kennedy R 24 3.90 8 5 23 22 129.3 116 56 15 50 109 113 Joe Saunders L 30 4.55 12 12 31 31 193.7 205 98 26 62 110 96 LEAGUE AVERAGE——————————————————————————————————————- Bryan Augenstein R 24 4.86 7 8 26 21 122.3 143 66 12 35 81 91 Barry Enright R 25 5.05 8 10 29 29 165.7 190 93 26 48 95 87 Joshua Collmenter R 25 5.06 9 11 27 27 142.3 153 80 17 72 100 87 Mike Hampton L 39 5.08 7 9 20 20 106.3 117 60 13 45 69 87 Cesar Valdez R 26 5.29 7 11 26 21 119.0 137 70 15 52 79 83 Kevin Mulvey R 26 5.35 6 9 30 28 156.3 179 93 20 70 92 82 Rodrigo Lopez R 35 5.36 6 9 22 21 124.3 148 74 20 35 69 82 Ryan Cook R 24 5.41 7 10 26 26 129.7 156 78 11 65 73 81 Jarrod Parker R 26 5.51 4 7 17 17 78.3 93 48 10 39 54 80 Wade Miley L 24 5.53 7 10 27 27 136.7 164 84 13 74 75 79 Wes Roemer R 24 5.72 6 10 26 24 140.0 165 89 22 62 85 77 Matt Torra R 27 5.73 8 13 29 29 174.3 229 111 27 42 82 77 Tom Layne L 26 5.76 5 9 32 19 115.7 141 74 11 70 56 76 Kris Benson R 36 6.51 2 5 13 11 56.7 75 41 10 24 28 67 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ D. J. Carrasco R 34 3.93 3 2 51 1 75.7 73 33 6 28 58 112 Clay Zavada L 27 4.04 3 2 44 0 49.0 45 22 6 24 46 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE——————————————————————————————————————- Juan Gutierrez R 27 4.25 4 3 64 0 65.7 63 31 8 27 58 103 Blaine Boyer R 29 4.31 3 3 59 0 62.7 64 30 5 26 44 102 Brian Sweeney R 37 4.37 3 3 46 0 59.7 60 29 7 23 38 100 Aaron Heilman R 32 4.40 6 5 72 0 73.7 72 36 9 33 65 100 Josh Ellis R 26 4.40 3 3 41 0 59.3 64 29 4 26 47 100 Leo Rosales R 23 4.47 2 2 38 0 44.3 45 22 5 20 31 98 Esmerling Vasquez R 27 4.71 3 3 58 0 57.3 53 30 6 39 52 93 Jason Urquidez R 28 4.83 4 4 50 0 69.0 75 37 7 30 51 91 Sam Demel R 25 4.84 3 3 57 0 61.3 65 33 6 32 48 91 Carlos Rosa R 26 4.91 3 4 51 0 66.0 67 36 7 37 53 90 Zach Kroenke L 27 4.92 4 5 42 5 78.7 82 43 9 42 50 89 Daniel Stange R 25 4.93 4 4 44 0 49.3 53 27 5 23 30 89 Jordan Norberto L 24 5.01 3 3 52 0 55.7 54 31 6 41 53 88 Rafael Rodriguez R 26 5.10 3 4 50 0 67.0 74 38 10 27 35 86 Roque Mercedes R 24 5.20 2 3 42 0 55.3 62 32 6 30 39 84 Jose Marte R 27 5.24 3 4 49 0 67.0 72 39 9 37 49 84 Kyler Newby R 26 5.25 3 4 40 6 73.7 78 43 12 38 60 84 Kasey Olenberger R 33 5.48 3 4 46 4 67.3 76 41 10 31 44 80 T.J. Beam R 30 5.58 3 5 48 4 79.0 90 49 10 45 49 79 Leyson Septimo L 25 6.35 1 3 41 0 45.3 45 32 5 54 42 69 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Justin Upton .280 .364 .474 2848 10536 1631 2950 620 85 419 1605 1380 2728 322 116 Stephen Drew .267 .326 .437 1974 7605 1016 2031 443 136 192 856 669 1225 77 96 Mark Reynolds .232 .325 .459 1887 6699 1067 1554 311 32 381 1133 881 2359 136 101 Kelly Johnson .266 .341 .449 1796 6410 963 1705 391 74 212 770 720 1251 107 105 Chris B. Young .242 .324 .428 1266 4604 676 1113 279 23 177 616 556 1100 117 94 Gerardo Parra .277 .327 .403 1380 4568 535 1266 249 74 59 495 333 859 75 89 Bobby Crosby .237 .302 .368 966 3226 404 763 188 10 72 346 296 632 41 77 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Joe Saunders 123 109 0 4.57 303 303 1849 1972 939 251 612 1051 97 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Justin Upton RF 41% 30% 15% 10% 4% Danny Tartabull B.J. Upton Sixto Lezcano Kelly Johnson 2B 50% 19% 14% 11% 5% Robby Thompson Chase Utley Dick Green Adam LaRoche 1B 5% 16% 19% 32% 27% Brian Daubach Lee Stevens Danny Goodwin Stephen Drew SS 33% 27% 24% 13% 4% Mike Fontenot Orlando Hudson Jay Bell Mark Reynolds 3B 12% 26% 26% 21% 15% Nick Esasky Russell Branyan Dean Palmer Chris B. Young CF 18% 22% 30% 20% 9% Ernie Young Mike Fuentes Jon Nunnally Miguel Montero C 18% 32% 22% 19% 9% Eddie Taubensee Jerry Willard Brad Gulden Brandon Allen 1B 2% 11% 15% 32% 39% George Canale John Jaha Mike Hocutt Gerardo Parra LF 1% 5% 8% 19% 67% Alexis Rios Bruce Fields Shin-Soo Choo Cole Gillespie CF 4% 10% 25% 32% 28% Ricky Ledee Brian Simmons Ted Wood Jeff Bailey 1B 1% 3% 5% 23% 67% Pedro Swann Brian Lesher David McCarty Tony Abreu SS 7% 15% 31% 29% 19% Pat Meares Manuel Lee Omar Infante John Hester C 7% 19% 23% 28% 23% Justin Knoedler Miguel Olivo Jason LaRue Paul Goldschmidt 1B 0% 4% 9% 24% 63% Eddie Vargas Angelo Logrande Brandon Moss Ollie Linton LF 0% 2% 4% 12% 81% Jeff Stone Shin-Soo Choo Kevin Rhomberg Collin Cowgill RF 0% 4% 7% 16% 73% Garey Ingram Bronson Sardinha Brian Simmons Ryan Wheeler 3B 2% 4% 9% 19% 66% Joe Crede Aurelio Rodriguez Scott Cooper Rusty Ryal LF 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Scott Jaster Rod Allen Charlie James Doug Deeds RF 0% 2% 5% 13% 80% Brian Lesher Pat Sheridan Alexis Gomez Ryan Roberts 2B 6% 8% 13% 25% 49% Mike Moriarty Jason Maxwell Andrew Beattie Ryan Church RF 0% 2% 3% 9% 85% Greg Litton Jon Weber Jim Vatcher Konrad Schmidt C 1% 5% 13% 34% 48% Geronimo Gil Matt Walbeck Tom Nieto Marc Krauss LF 0% 2% 4% 8% 86% Dale Holman Mauricio Ching Wil Culmer Carlos Corporan C 1% 5% 9% 25% 60% Chad Moeller Mel Rosario Eli Whiteside Drew Macias CF 1% 1% 5% 14% 79% Nathan Panther Tyrone Boykin Phil Dauphin Mark Hallberg 2B 0% 1% 2% 8% 89% Ramon Martinez Jay Pecci Billy Ripken Bobby Crosby SS 1% 2% 7% 18% 72% Jorge Velandia Kevin Polcovich Stu Cole Chris Rahl RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Darrell Nicholas Tommy Murphy Cesar Hernandez Sean Coughlin C 1% 3% 5% 15% 76% Scott Hatteberg Alberto Castillo Jeff Ontiveros Kory Casto 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Adam Morrissey Dave Baker John Hotchkiss Matthew Davidson 3B 0% 2% 3% 6% 89% Tom Quinlan Stan Royer Billy Rowell Eddie Rogers 3B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Chico Ruiz Eddie Zosky Casey Smith Cyle Hankerd 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Dave Turgeon Tyler Eastley Mark Ori Augie Ojeda 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Rene Gonzales Craig Counsell Dal Maxvill Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Brandon Webb SP 70% 23% 7% Rick Reuschel Orel Hershiser Rick Rhoden Daniel Hudson SP 75% 19% 7% Jamie Vermilyea Andy Benes David Nied Ian Kennedy SP 56% 37% 7% Wade Miller Brett Tomko Ramon Martinez D. J. Carrasco RP 31% 54% 15% Rollie Fingers Andy McGaffigan Anthony Telford Clay Zavada RP 29% 47% 24% Armando Almanza Dick Littlefield Paul Spoljaric Juan Gutierrez RP 16% 53% 31% Justin Speier Curt Kaufman Chuck Ricci Blaine Boyer RP 18% 53% 28% Sean Green Tony Fiore John Riedling Brian Sweeney RP 20% 41% 39% Mike Maddux Rick White Pete Appleton Aaron Heilman RP 12% 53% 35% Greg Harris Scott Cassidy Ricky Bottalico Josh Ellis RP 16% 48% 36% Blaine Neal Jay Robertson Gerry Hannahs Leo Rosales RP 15% 39% 45% Keith Shepherd Pedro Feliciano Jose Ascanio Joe Saunders SP 18% 60% 22% Carlos Perez Mike Maroth Kirk Rueter Esmerling Vasquez RP 10% 43% 48% Bart Miadich Calvin Jones Jack Meyer Jason Urquidez RP 7% 40% 53% LaTroy Hawkins Tom Davey Heathcliff Slocumb Sam Demel RP 7% 37% 56% Anthony Chavez Alan Mills Joe Jacobsen Bryan Augenstein SP 11% 56% 33% John Hope Ramiro Mendoza Chris Holt Carlos Rosa RP 4% 36% 60% Santiago Ramirez Mike Shade Bob Gibson Zach Kroenke RP 3% 36% 61% Brad Weis Philip Barzilla Rich Rodriguez Daniel Stange RP 7% 36% 57% Jim Mecir Don Smith Tim Crabtree Jordan Norberto RP 5% 33% 62% Tyler Johnson Jackie Davidson Darren Oliver Barry Enright SP 4% 49% 48% Brian Meadows Bob Wolcott Bob Tewksbury Joshua Collmenter SP 5% 48% 48% J.D. Durbin Denny Bautista Jim Dorsey Mike Hampton SP 7% 37% 57% Mark Langston Frank Tanana Earl Whitehill Rafael Rodriguez RP 3% 27% 70% Glenn Dooner Dennis Tafoya Randy McCament Roque Mercedes RP 3% 26% 71% Ray Soff Rick Greene Dave Smith Jose Marte RP 2% 22% 77% Paul Wilmet John Trautwein Kevin Cameron Kyler Newby RP 1% 19% 81% Jeromy Palki Matt Turner Mike Cook Cesar Valdez SP 3% 34% 63% Steve Kelly Matt Achilles John Snyder Kevin Mulvey SP 1% 30% 69% Mickey Callaway Matt Achilles Steve Kelly Rodrigo Lopez SP 5% 27% 68% Tim Kester Bill Gullickson Kevin Jarvis Ryan Cook SP 3% 34% 64% Ed Wojna Jake Joseph Kevin Ritz Kasey Olenberger RP 4% 18% 78% Vladimir Nunez Jason Childers Mike Sullivan Jarrod Parker SP 2% 26% 71% Jaret Wright Jason Middlebrook Sean Lowe Wade Miley SP 1% 21% 79% Derek Thompson Matt Smith Jake Chapman T.J. Beam RP 1% 11% 88% Steve Green Marty McLeary Jarod Juelsgaard Wes Roemer SP 0% 14% 86% Brian Reith Clint Weibl David Pauley Matt Torra SP 1% 13% 86% Josh Towers Heath Totten Bill King Tom Layne SP 1% 15% 84% Matt Coenen Ben Fritz Lance Caraccioli Leyson Septimo RP 0% 6% 94% Robbie Beckett Tyler Johnson Curt Heidenreich Kris Benson SP 1% 8% 91% Kevin Jarvis Aaron Sele Dennis Springer Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Justin Upton 37% 41% 50% 15% 15% 32% 23% 15% Kelly Johnson 15% 19% 28% 11% 14% 7% 7% 3% Adam LaRoche 7% 6% 26% 13% 2% 16% 4% 0% Stephen Drew 12% 7% 13% 13% 60% 3% 2% 0% Mark Reynolds 0% 3% 24% 0% 1% 70% 3% 4% Chris B. Young 1% 4% 11% 8% 2% 20% 1% 10% Miguel Montero 12% 9% 11% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Brandon Allen 1% 5% 10% 3% 4% 16% 1% 1% Gerardo Parra 23% 4% 1% 2% 44% 0% 0% 1% Cole Gillespie 2% 3% 2% 0% 14% 0% 0% 0% Jeff Bailey 3% 6% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Tony Abreu 23% 1% 4% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% John Hester 7% 1% 8% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Paul Goldschmidt 1% 0% 7% 24% 1% 19% 0% 0% Ollie Linton 21% 29% 0% 0% 26% 0% 0% 6% Collin Cowgill 2% 1% 2% 0% 6% 0% 0% 1% Ryan Wheeler 10% 3% 3% 6% 7% 1% 1% 0% Rusty Ryal 9% 1% 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Doug Deeds 5% 2% 1% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Roberts 2% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% Ryan Church 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Konrad Schmidt 8% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Marc Krauss 1% 1% 2% 3% 6% 6% 0% 0% Carlos Corporan 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Drew Macias 0% 2% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Mark Hallberg 3% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Bobby Crosby 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Rahl 2% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% Sean Coughlin 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kory Casto 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matthew Davidson 0% 0% 2% 8% 1% 2% 0% 0% Eddie Rogers 3% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Cyle Hankerd 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Augie Ojeda 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Brandon Webb 43% 92% 16% 10% 89% Daniel Hudson 37% 95% 41% 1% 68% Ian Kennedy 20% 82% 29% 0% 46% D. J. Carrasco 25% 81% 10% 2% 84% Clay Zavada 22% 70% 57% 0% 52% Juan Gutierrez 12% 63% 46% 1% 42% Blaine Boyer 14% 58% 3% 1% 87% Brian Sweeney 15% 54% 3% 4% 59% Aaron Heilman 8% 58% 41% 0% 51% Josh Ellis 12% 57% 16% 0% 92% Leo Rosales 10% 46% 6% 1% 63% Joe Saunders 2% 42% 1% 4% 35% Esmerling Vasquez 7% 45% 50% 0% 58% Jason Urquidez 5% 40% 6% 0% 71% Sam Demel 5% 37% 14% 0% 69% Bryan Augenstein 1% 31% 2% 12% 72% Carlos Rosa 3% 33% 16% 0% 54% Zach Kroenke 2% 27% 1% 0% 65% Daniel Stange 5% 35% 1% 0% 54% Jordan Norberto 5% 31% 60% 0% 60% Barry Enright 0% 16% 0% 7% 11% Joshua Collmenter 0% 18% 2% 0% 48% Mike Hampton 1% 18% 5% 1% 52% Rafael Rodriguez 2% 24% 0% 2% 28% Roque Mercedes 2% 22% 5% 0% 61% Jose Marte 1% 14% 5% 0% 35% Kyler Newby 1% 15% 19% 0% 18% Cesar Valdez 0% 10% 0% 0% 36% Kevin Mulvey 0% 6% 0% 0% 32% Rodrigo Lopez 1% 11% 0% 20% 17% Ryan Cook 0% 10% 0% 0% 87% Kasey Olenberger 3% 19% 4% 0% 33% Jarrod Parker 0% 9% 2% 0% 50% Wade Miley 0% 5% 0% 0% 74% T.J. Beam 1% 7% 2% 0% 46% Wes Roemer 0% 2% 0% 0% 14% Matt Torra 1% 2% 0% 41% 10% Tom Layne 0% 3% 0% 0% 81% Leyson Septimo 0% 4% 59% 0% 59% Kris Benson 0% 3% 0% 2% 20% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 14, 2010 at 05:31 PM | 27 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3689779)2010 - RF > Vg/197
2011 - RF > Vg/215
96 - put line in wrong place.
I've been regressing fielding percentage too much in the past.
Michael Taylor .256/.319/.395/.714...but OPS+ is 92
Collin Gowgill .250/.318/.405/.723...but OPS+ is only 87
In my mind, Cowgill's OPS+ should be roughly the same (or slightly higher) than Taylor's? I feel like I'm not understanding something fundamental, as the answer eludes me...thanks
And of course this is assuming that Dunn doesn't put it out of everyone's reach.
if bobby crosby reaches that slash line (.240/.300/.360), those will be his best marks in those respective categories since 2005.
Edit: evidence
Sadly, his comparable is this Bob Gibson.
I try not to make vapid statements like this, but I really can't imagine someone named "Paul Goldschmidt" becoming a viable major-league baseball, football or basketball player.
I should remind you at this point that there's actually a successful baseball player named Coco Crisp.
In one of the abstracts Bill James laments that particular Bob Gibson being allowed to use the Bob Gibson name.
Also interesting is that although Upton projects to a 125 OPS+ this season -- and is still far from reaching his peak as a ballplayer -- his projected career OPS+ is only 116. Does ZiPS project a long and depressing tail end of his career? Dan?
He apparently tore his rotator cuff that offseason and when he finally returned in the middle of the year he was terrible and they gave up. I'm guessing the injury was worse than anybody thought.
Stuckenschneider
It's an uncertainty thing. If Upton simply repeats 2010 over-and-over again without improving a bit, the long-term projections improve because he'll have good performance in the bag .
Let me put it another way. Tim Lincecum is a much, much better pitcher than Livan Hernandez. However, Livan Hernandez is much more likely to win 180 games or to pitch 200 innings at age 37 than Lincecum is.
I'm still baffled how Livan pulled 2010 out of his butt
2008-09: 363 IP at 74 ERA+, negative WAR, less than 5k/9, I mean seriously, what was he still doing in the MLB in 2010...
How did he do it?
1: Lowest HR/9 of his career
2: BABIP was 12 points lower than his career (not a huge difference- but MUCH better than recent years- but it was actually all April) -look at his splits- 1st half BABIP of .280, second half .311 (his career average is .310)- his second half k/bb was actually his best in years...
Random speculation- his 2010 was analogous to Lima's 2004- 2011 is gonna look like Lima's 2005...
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