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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, December 13, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta BravesThe Braves were one of ZiPS’s favorites going into the 2010 season and unlike a certain other team *COUGHMARINERCOUGH* the Braves didn’t let my old computer down and won 91 games.
Now, the Braves pitching staff wasn’t as exciting as the 90s staffs (praising with faint damnation), but they still finished 3rd in the league in ERA thanks to Billy Wagner and the Pips and Hudson’s fine full-season return. ZiPS is a bit skeptical at some of the hard-throwing relievers thanks to some troublesome walk rates, but the team has suitable depth to be able to absorb a Nasty Surprise or two.
ZiPS likes Jason Heyward.
Next up: Astros
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Jason Heyward L RF 21 .281 .393 .490 153 555 93 156 32 6 24 86 95 123 13 5 136 Brian McCann L C 27 .275 .357 .469 151 524 65 144 34 1 22 89 63 91 5 1 120 Dan Uggla R 2B 31 .259 .346 .469 150 559 88 145 28 1 29 87 71 144 4 2 116 Chipper Jones B 3B 39 .258 .370 .416 100 341 50 88 19 1 11 48 63 58 4 0 111 Martin Prado R 2B 27 .294 .342 .442 137 520 79 153 35 3 12 60 38 67 4 3 109 Nate McLouth L CF 29 .247 .339 .425 129 445 71 110 24 2 17 60 55 87 18 3 104 Derrek Lee R 1B 35 .262 .343 .432 135 516 74 135 29 1 19 78 64 113 3 2 107 Freddie Freeman L 1B 21 .272 .333 .442 156 545 76 148 35 2 18 85 45 105 5 4 106 Eric Hinske L LF 33 .239 .329 .424 111 255 36 61 15 1 10 40 32 67 3 1 101 Troy Glaus R 1B 34 .241 .342 .406 103 345 44 83 15 0 14 59 52 83 0 0 100 David Ross R C 34 .241 .349 .404 60 141 17 34 9 1 4 24 23 40 0 1 102 Rick Ankiel L CF 31 .242 .303 .439 111 360 48 87 19 2 16 45 30 102 4 2 97 Alex Gonzalez R SS 34 .253 .295 .414 129 474 56 120 30 2 14 61 24 86 1 2 88 Joe Mather R RF 28 .240 .306 .390 109 359 48 86 18 3 10 44 30 78 7 3 86 Brooks Conrad B 3B 31 .226 .295 .395 121 349 53 79 19 2 12 54 32 100 7 1 84 Matt Young L LF 28 .246 .326 .346 131 491 71 121 23 7 4 34 52 71 25 9 81 Brent Clevlen R RF 27 .233 .297 .380 105 382 43 89 15 4 11 51 33 128 5 1 80 Wilkin Ramirez R CF 25 .227 .283 .385 141 525 64 119 18 7 17 58 38 193 24 10 77 Josh Anderson L CF 28 .250 .288 .322 108 348 49 87 13 3 2 22 16 56 23 5 64 Tyler Pastornicky R SS 21 .245 .302 .331 155 595 79 146 23 5 6 48 48 106 39 17 70 Joseph Thurston L 2B 31 .248 .298 .351 128 424 45 105 17 3 7 46 27 70 7 6 74 Diory Hernandez R SS 27 .257 .296 .357 99 339 33 87 16 3 4 39 16 61 7 7 75 Christian Colonel R 3B 29 .243 .299 .342 104 345 39 84 15 2 5 43 26 65 3 3 72 Orlando Mercado R C 26 .244 .324 .301 93 299 31 73 11 0 2 31 35 46 1 1 70 Mauro Gomez R 1B 26 .228 .272 .362 129 508 49 116 27 1 13 60 26 164 1 1 69 Brandon Hicks R SS 25 .205 .275 .341 116 396 49 81 18 3 10 35 34 137 11 4 65 Eric Duncan L 2B 26 .227 .274 .345 123 449 46 102 20 3 9 49 28 118 4 3 65 Luis Bolivar R SS 30 .219 .262 .326 112 365 47 80 13 4 6 33 17 97 15 4 57 Jordan Schafer L CF 24 .211 .285 .329 89 322 36 68 14 3 6 24 33 98 10 8 65 J. C. Boscan R C 31 .215 .278 .284 76 261 20 56 12 0 2 22 21 64 1 0 52 Clint Sammons R C 28 .199 .258 .284 93 317 27 63 12 0 5 28 24 77 4 2 46 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Jason Heyward FR/127 EX/164 Brian McCann AV Dan Uggla FR/129 Chipper Jones AV/112 Martin Prado VG/113 AV/95 AV/87 PO/120 AV/113 Nate McLouth AV/45 FR/63 Derrek Lee AV/99 Freddie Freeman AV/141 Eric Hinske AV/113 FR/108 AV/109 AV/109 Troy Glaus FR/136 FR/70 David Ross AV Rick Ankiel AV/145 FR/215 FR/127 Alex Gonzalez AV/85 Joe Mather FR/109 PO/122 AV/105 PO/157 FR/131 Brooks Conrad AV/129 FR/151 FR/128 FR/139 FR/106 Matt Young PO/131 VG/54 AV/79 VG/54 Brent Clevlen VG/168 FR/106 VG/168 Wilkin Ramirez AV/220 FR/112 AV/148 Josh Anderson VG/115 AV/145 AV/112 Tyler Pastornicky VG/144 VG/144 Joey Jo-Jo Thurston AV/123 FR/130 PO/131 AV/100 AV/108 Diory Hernandez AV/135 VG/125 FR/122 Christian Colonel AV/124 PO/113 PO/177 FR/105 AV/128 Orlando Mercado VG FR/126 Mauro Gomez FR/161 PO/125 Brandon Hicks AV/157 Eric Duncan PO/114 PO/127 PO/142 FR/124 PO/113 Luis Bolivar VG/149 AV/129 PO/147 AV/204 AV/110 AV/108 Jordan Schafer VG/107 AV/54 VG/112 J. C. Boscan AV Clint Sammons AV PO/124 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tommy Hanson R 24 3.10 15 7 34 34 203.0 175 70 16 62 192 130 Tim Hudson R 35 3.70 10 7 24 24 148.3 142 61 13 49 92 109 Jair Jurrjens R 25 3.82 12 9 30 30 176.7 172 75 15 62 135 106 Julio Teheran R 20 4.12 10 8 25 25 137.7 129 63 15 61 121 98 LEAGUE AVERAGE—————————————————————————————————————96 Mike Minor L 23 4.33 9 9 29 29 158.0 147 76 19 74 162 93 Derek Lowe R 38 4.39 13 13 32 32 184.3 197 90 17 62 118 92 Arodys Vizcaino R 20 4.73 3 3 11 11 40.0 40 21 4 22 33 86 Kenshin Kawakami R 36 4.74 6 8 25 21 119.7 127 63 15 44 81 85 Brett Oberholtzer L 21 4.81 7 8 27 23 134.7 156 72 14 37 87 84 Randall Delgado R 21 4.89 8 10 28 28 140.0 144 76 16 76 112 83 J. J. Hoover R 23 4.98 8 11 29 26 142.7 157 79 16 61 105 81 Scott Diamond L 24 5.02 7 9 27 27 147.0 171 82 12 68 91 81 James Parr R 25 5.30 4 5 17 13 73.0 81 43 11 30 49 76 Todd Redmond R 26 5.46 7 11 28 27 153.3 171 93 28 54 106 74 Jose Ortegano L 23 5.50 7 12 30 26 126.0 146 77 17 58 79 74 Erik Cordier R 25 5.84 6 13 28 25 126.3 141 82 13 100 80 69 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Billy Wagner L 39 2.38 4 1 48 0 45.3 32 12 4 16 62 170 Takashi Saito R 41 3.08 4 2 50 0 49.7 41 17 4 18 56 131 Craig Kimbrel R 23 3.53 5 3 59 0 63.7 43 25 5 54 92 115 Kyle Farnsworth R 35 3.64 3 2 53 0 54.3 49 22 6 19 57 111 Jonny Venters L 26 3.66 5 3 81 0 83.7 75 34 6 44 78 111 Eric O’Flaherty L 26 3.66 3 2 68 0 51.7 48 21 4 19 43 111 Kris Medlen R 25 3.74 7 5 38 12 113.0 108 47 11 32 99 108 LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 108 Peter Moylan R 32 3.88 4 3 66 0 51.0 47 22 4 27 43 104 Brandon Beachy R 24 3.91 4 3 35 11 99.0 98 43 8 33 86 104 George Sherrill L 34 4.04 2 2 62 0 49.0 46 22 4 23 42 100 Scott Linebrink R 34 4.05 3 3 51 0 53.3 52 24 7 16 49 100 Cristhian MartinezR 29 4.19 3 3 52 1 73.0 78 34 7 19 47 97 Stephen Marek R 27 4.72 4 5 54 0 55.3 54 29 6 34 48 86 Mariano Gomez L 28 4.76 4 4 43 0 56.7 60 30 5 29 31 85 Cory Gearrin R 25 4.88 3 4 49 0 62.7 63 34 8 35 51 83 Lee Hyde L 26 4.93 4 5 43 0 49.3 52 27 5 26 36 82 Vladimir Nunez R 36 4.95 2 2 40 1 63.7 67 35 6 37 49 82 Scott Proctor R 34 5.02 3 4 50 0 52.0 55 29 7 27 42 81 Juan Abreu R 26 6.30 2 5 41 0 50.0 52 35 9 45 45 64 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Jason Heyward .275 .395 .477 2750 9876 1654 2716 548 94 420 1489 1838 1953 217 134 Chipper Jones .300 .400 .522 2540 9114 1637 2735 547 40 465 1623 1563 1431 157 138 Brian McCann .268 .344 .443 2394 8342 954 2239 520 11 305 1320 893 1252 68 109 Derrek Lee .276 .358 .478 2290 8324 1262 2298 510 32 370 1271 1028 1868 111 117 Troy Glaus .252 .354 .474 1822 6378 1004 1605 335 10 355 1105 984 1588 56 115 Martin Prado .286 .334 .425 1764 6559 941 1876 423 34 141 730 470 783 44 102 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Tim Hudson 206 124 0 3.63 456 453 2944 2833 1186 248 930 1928 120 Derek Lowe 185 164 85 4.00 679 402 2779 2855 1235 232 825 1789 111 Jair Jurrjens 152 115 0 3.80 384 385 2290 2207 966 209 821 1772 108 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Jason Heyward RF 60% 26% 8% 4% 1% Johnny Callison Ken Griffey Buddy Lewis Brian McCann C 62% 27% 8% 3% 0% Johnny Edwards Dave Nilsson Bill Freehan Dan Uggla 2B 55% 18% 12% 9% 5% Ron Santo Troy Glaus Dean Palmer Chipper Jones 3B 25% 29% 23% 16% 7% Bobby Grich Dick Bartell Ken Caminiti Martin Prado 2B 40% 22% 17% 14% 7% Davey Johnson Jose Vidro Buddy Bell Nate McLouth CF 31% 26% 26% 14% 4% Jon Nunnally Ricky Ledee Mike Hart Derrek Lee 1B 5% 17% 20% 32% 26% Ron Santo Kevin Millar Fred McGriff Freddie Freeman 1B 5% 17% 18% 30% 30% Adam Lind Joe DeSa Ed Kranepool Eric Hinske LF 5% 15% 19% 27% 34% Adam Hyzdu Mike Hegan Len Matuszek Troy Glaus 1B 2% 10% 16% 36% 35% Cecil Fielder Bob Brenly Adam Hyzdu David Ross C 22% 32% 23% 17% 7% Jim Leyritz Tom Wilson Don Slaught Rick Ankiel CF 7% 13% 27% 31% 22% John-Ford Griffin Jerry Martin Dustan Mohr Alex Gonzalez SS 8% 13% 24% 30% 25% Pete Suder Pedro Feliz Chris Truby Joe Mather RF 0% 3% 6% 15% 75% Darren Burton Caleb Stewart Ted Wood Brooks Conrad 3B 2% 6% 12% 25% 56% Scott Stahoviak Tom Brookens Steve Kiefer Matt Young LF 0% 2% 4% 11% 83% Aaron Fuller Terry Bradshaw Dave Roberts Brent Clevlen RF 0% 1% 3% 9% 88% Jed Hansen Wil Culmer Chris Aguila Wilkin Ramirez CF 1% 4% 12% 26% 57% John Denman Reggie Abercrombie Luis Saturria Josh Anderson CF 0% 2% 8% 21% 69% Lou Thornton Terry Blocker Norm Brock Tyler Pastornicky SS 3% 5% 12% 21% 59% Mike Mesh Juan Gonzalez Jason Bourgeois Joseph Thurston 2B 1% 2% 4% 12% 82% Tommy Shields Tom Runnells Andy Sheets Diory Hernandez SS 1% 2% 7% 19% 70% Johnnie LeMaster Pat Meares Kent Anderson Christian Colonel 3B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Juan Castro Nick Ortiz Leo Durocher Orlando Mercado C 0% 1% 4% 19% 77% Greg Olson Matt Tupman Nelson Santovenia Mauro Gomez 1B 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% James Rothford Chad Santos Chris Cron Brandon Hicks SS 2% 3% 7% 15% 74% Ryan Owens Kelly Dransfeldt Jake Wald Eric Duncan 2B 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Jim Mason Carlos Casimiro Ryan Barthelemy Luis Bolivar SS 2% 1% 4% 10% 83% Jake Wald Brandon Chaves Tommy Murphy J. C. Boscan C 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Chad Moeller Chris Tremie Charlie Greene Clint Sammons C 0% 1% 1% 2% 97% Mike Ryan Chris Curry Joe Hietpas Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Billy Wagner RP 87% 11% 1% Tug McGraw Mike Remlinger John Franco Takashi Saito RP 60% 34% 6% Satchel Paige Larry Andersen Hoyt Wilhelm Tommy Hanson SP 90% 10% 0% Don Drysdale Kevin Millwood Roy Oswalt Craig Kimbrel RP 36% 52% 13% Mark Littell Mario Soto Jose Valverde Kyle Farnsworth RP 30% 47% 23% Todd Worrell Billy Taylor Enrique Romo Jonny Venters RP 29% 54% 17% Shane Rawley Darren Oliver Mitch Williams Eric O’Flaherty RP 34% 48% 18% Dave Leiper Scott Stewart Tom Thobe Tim Hudson SP 48% 45% 7% Mike Morgan Mark Portugal Vic Raschi Kris Medlen RP 24% 62% 14% Chris Bosio Pedro Astacio Vicente Padilla Jair Jurrjens SP 45% 49% 6% Storm Davis Jason Isringhausen Jay Tibbs Peter Moylan RP 22% 48% 30% Cory Bailey Jose Alvarez Heathcliff Slocumb Brandon Beachy RP 15% 59% 26% Jeff Robinson Ron Robinson Steve Karsay George Sherrill RP 19% 47% 34% Kevin Tolar Trever Miller Greg Cadaret Scott Linebrink RP 21% 46% 33% Randy St. Claire Jeff Reardon Mike Trombley Julio Teheran SP 27% 56% 17% Jeff Juden Mike Bielecki John Smoltz Cristhian MartinezRP 10% 41% 48% Tony Arnold Don Gordon Jeff Tam Mike Minor SP 14% 56% 29% Mark Davis Scott Olsen Arthur Rhodes Derek Lowe SP 12% 47% 40% Steve Sparks Mike Morgan Rick Sutcliffe Stephen Marek RP 4% 33% 64% Bob Gibson Pat Flury Kevin Barry Arodys Vizcaino SP 18% 33% 50% Donnie Elliott Matt Albers Frank Williams Kenshin Kawakami SP 5% 42% 54% Doug Drabek Steve Parris Rick Helling Mariano Gomez RP 6% 26% 68% Chris Cumberland Jim Brewer Bob Smith Brett Oberholtzer SP 6% 39% 55% Bobby Livingston Derek Lilliquist Brad Halsey Cory Gearrin RP 2% 23% 74% Mike Shade Santiago Ramirez Joe Borowski Randall Delgado SP 3% 31% 66% Joaquin BenoitJohn Van Benschoten Mike Bielecki Lee Hyde RP 3% 24% 73% Anthony Ferrari Sal Urso Jeff Yoder Vladimir Nunez RP 3% 22% 75% Ben Weber Jim Brower Don Aase J. J. Hoover SP 2% 33% 65% Colby Lewis Josh Hall Ron Romanick Scott Proctor RP 3% 17% 80% David Lee Jim Dougherty Jim Brower Scott Diamond SP 1% 27% 72% Jake Chapman Mike Miller Derek Thompson James Parr SP 2% 21% 77% Mike Wilkins Joe Slusarski Shane Bowers Todd Redmond SP 0% 9% 91% Mark DiFelice Brian Cooper Mike Oquist Jose Ortegano SP 0% 9% 91% Andy Beal Mike Hinckley Chris Seddon Erik Cordier SP 0% 3% 97% Edwin Morel Bill Mooneyham Nate Puryear Juan Abreu RP 0% 2% 98% Orlando Roman Todd Bussa Vinicio Cedeno Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Jason Heyward 23% 70% 38% 7% 15% 22% 38% 4% Brian McCann 15% 23% 22% 8% 0% 13% 13% 0% Dan Uggla 6% 15% 23% 2% 0% 42% 11% 0% Chipper Jones 8% 42% 6% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% Martin Prado 40% 10% 7% 11% 2% 1% 3% 0% Nate McLouth 1% 9% 4% 0% 0% 2% 2% 6% Derrek Lee 7% 14% 7% 1% 0% 5% 4% 0% Freddie Freeman 11% 6% 11% 13% 1% 8% 4% 0% Eric Hinske 2% 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Troy Glaus 2% 14% 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% David Ross 7% 25% 7% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Rick Ankiel 1% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Alex Gonzalez 3% 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Joe Mather 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Brooks Conrad 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Young 1% 2% 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 21% Brent Clevlen 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Wilkin Ramirez 0% 0% 1% 0% 25% 3% 0% 20% Josh Anderson 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 16% Tyler Pastornicky 1% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 69% Joseph Thurston 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Diory Hernandez 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Christian Colonel 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Orlando Mercado 2% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mauro Gomez 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Hicks 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Eric Duncan 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Luis Bolivar 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Jordan Schafer 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% J. C. Boscan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Clint Sammons 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Billy Wagner 81% 98% 99% 10% 80% Takashi Saito 60% 91% 93% 8% 85% Tommy Hanson 52% 98% 68% 4% 93% Craig Kimbrel 36% 78% 100% 0% 84% Kyle Farnsworth 23% 71% 89% 6% 61% Jonny Venters 23% 73% 61% 0% 93% Eric O'Flaherty 26% 76% 26% 4% 88% Tim Hudson 16% 75% 0% 4% 79% Kris Medlen 20% 79% 41% 14% 77% Jair Jurrjens 11% 71% 7% 2% 88% Peter Moylan 16% 63% 35% 0% 88% Brandon Beachy 12% 64% 40% 4% 87% George Sherrill 13% 58% 41% 0% 73% Scott Linebrink 15% 59% 59% 18% 51% Julio Teheran 4% 53% 42% 0% 59% Cristhian Martinez 8% 39% 2% 29% 70% Mike Minor 1% 37% 89% 0% 45% Derek Lowe 3% 28% 4% 4% 73% Stephen Marek 4% 29% 37% 0% 66% Arodys Vizcaino 5% 33% 29% 0% 62% Kenshin Kawakami 1% 17% 1% 1% 39% Mariano Gomez 4% 26% 3% 1% 77% Brett Oberholtzer 2% 16% 1% 18% 66% Cory Gearrin 1% 20% 21% 0% 52% Randall Delgado 0% 10% 14% 0% 55% Lee Hyde 3% 21% 7% 0% 56% Vladimir Nunez 3% 17% 14% 0% 67% J. J. Hoover 0% 9% 3% 0% 54% Scott Proctor 3% 15% 25% 0% 43% Scott Diamond 0% 6% 1% 0% 87% James Parr 0% 8% 1% 1% 25% Todd Redmond 0% 1% 1% 0% 3% Jose Ortegano 0% 1% 0% 0% 35% Erik Cordier 0% 0% 0% 0% 66% Juan Abreu 0% 1% 50% 0% 24% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 13, 2010 at 02:52 PM | 54 comment(s)
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1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 13, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3709433)-- MWE
ZiPS really seems to like young Braves. Hanson and Heyward both at 130+, and three prospects (Freeman, Teheran, and Minor) ready to step in and be league average players.
Your damn computers can't measure heart...or fear!
The Braves have quietly built one helluva deep team. It's the Minnesota Twins model--a superstar catcher, no offensive black holes anywhere else (even if several starters get injured), and a pitching staff built on pitching to contact. I like it.
Also: Where is (or did) Ankiel going this offseason? Is he staying in Atlanta?
As long as Heyward and McCann don't go down they're a playoff team.
Heyward will slug well over .500 next year.
My prediction: Medlen goes to the pen when healthy. Beachy is a swingman. Minor or Jurrjens gets traded. Teheran is in the rotation by August 1. Delgado is AAA and challenges for a rotation spot in 2012.
Medlen returns as swingman. Beachy goes to Pittsburgh in return for Matt Diaz, who helps replace Chipper's missed games down the stretch. Teheran takes Derek Lowe's spot after he's traded to the Yankees.
Wonder if he'll entertain the option to switch back to the mound? Otherwise his career is over I'd think.
I suspect he'll catch on as a LH pinch hitter, pinch runner and defensive CF somewhere. He has limited range, but his arm is phenomenal out there.
Here are players with career OPS+ between 130 and 140, PA between 10000 and 13000:
Gary Sheffield
Reggie Jackson
Ken Griffey Jr
George Brett
Fred McGriff
Al Kaline
Paul Waner
Billy Williams
Rafael Palmeiro
Tony Gwynn
Joe Morgan
Rod Carew
Wade Boggs
Dave Winfield
Roberto Clemente
Hard to say that the projection seems low, if those are his final career comps.
(I am of the belief that Heyward will be significantly better than that, but I can't expect a projection system to see Heyward's once-in-a-decade talent with any sort of precision.)
Even though he's already been a Royal, he wasn't an ex-Brave then.
So Heyward will basically be one of the best 5 players ever? Hard to get significantly better than any of these guys. So, I'll take the under on that statement.
Hey, the ROY voters didn't. Why should ZiPS?
The story of the Braves in 2010 and 2011, really, is the entrance of Heyward and the exit of Chipper. I'm trying to think of the last time a franchise had a similar passing of the torch from one HOF franchise player to the guy it hopes will be the next, and who gives every indication he might just pick right up at the last guy's peak.
If you look at the most recent guys who have retired and been inducted into the HOF (not the Jim Rice types who had a long wait), you don't see guys who left teams with young superstar talents just starting out:
2009: Rickey Henderson - didn't retire from one team where he'd had a long tenure, so not really the guy who's gonna hand over a legacy.
2007: Tony Gwynn - retired from San Diego in 2001. The HOF talent on that team other than Gwynn was 33 year old Trevor Hoffman. Nope.
2007: Cal Ripken - Baltimore in 2001? They did have a 21-year old named Tim Raines. Wrong one.
2005: Wade Boggs - retired from the Rays in 1999, with no Chipper-like legacy there.
2005: Ryne Sandberg - finished his second spin with the Cubs in 1997. No Jason Heywards on that roster.
Anyway, I won't just keep naming guys. My choice for the last Chipper/Heyward situation? You could make an argument for Reggie Jackson, retiring from the A's in 1987 -- although that's kind of a cheat, since his legacy with the A's had really been built many years before, and not during that one-year swan song. But that team did have McGuire and Canseco as up-and-coming Bash Brothers, and that's a definite pass-the-torch kind of moment.
For a guy finishing his whole, HOF career with one team, with another HOFer just waiting in the wings? The last such case I can find is Yaz's last two years (1982-83), which were also Wade Bogg's first two years with the Red Sox. If Heyward is better than that, as he sure seems to have the raw talent to be, that will be a rare thing indeed.
Yaz from TeddyW
Mick from JoeD
Tho it took a year or three for the replacements to get going.
Just looking at BA/OBP/SLG/HRper600 PA neutral park/neutral league 2010/weighted recent:
Glaus 07-10: 246/349/417/21
Fielder 95-98: 239/333/418/24
Brenly 85-88: 243/337/419/21
Or projects him pretty much the exact same as I have and we all know I hate him. :-)
For 2011, ZiPS projects an almost identical performance with a perfectly reasonable 30 point jump in ISO. For his career, I'm of the opinion that ZiPS career projections seriously overstate playing time -- but it's just an opinion -- so I'd put this down as a realistic upside.
A lot of that is probably thrown off by Heyward's wrist injury in 2010 though. He wasn't hitting for any power for 2 months
Sorry, not buying that. From May 5 through the end of the season, Heyward hit just 10 HR in 521 PA with a 148 ISO. He had a good month in Aug but just a 110 ISO in Sept. The wrist injury might well explain his lack of power, especially HR, over the last 4-5 months of the season, but it's incorrect to claim that effect only lasted 2 months.
The power is the main question with him. He's already massive so this isn't a 20-year-old kid you think will add power as he fills out. Presumably more power is on the way but he'll likely need to put up some ISOs in the 300 range to substantially surpass that projection.
No. There's been a lot of speculation, including by me, that this is often the case with elite young talent. It's certainly not uncommon to see players "peak" early. But as far as I know, nobody's done a study on aging curves showing that elite young players don't improve (much) while regular young players do. And we also still see a reasonable number of people who will look at, say, a 125 OPS+ at age 20 and start projecting HoF careers based on standard aging curves. And, of course, every once in a while a Pujols comes along to provide a perfect example of that.
Wow. It's been a long time since I could break this out without even a *hint* of irony or snark, but seriously, you need to get your head out of the spreadsheets and watch a game, man. Anyone who's seen Jason Heyward play baseball would never say with seriousness that "the power is the main question with him." He's crushed the ball at every level, excepting his 20-year-old rookie season in MLB where he had a thumb and wrist injury sap his power stroke for three months. He will crush the ball in MLB.
I was going to point to a McGwire exit(replaced by Pujols), but as you mentioned, he really didn't cut his teeth with the Cardinals, although many argue that his hof cap should be a Cardinal cap(if he makes it in)
If you're limiting the question to the Chipper sort of "career model with one organization" you're going to have a really hard time finding comps. Maybe Jeter-to-Cano is one in the making?
Of course, Atlanta also has Freeman coming up. If he were in a non-Heyward having organization he'd be a superstar prospect. As it is, he's just "Jason's roommate."
As for Jeter and Cano, I think they've already played too many years together for the sort of thing I had in mind -- one guy just coming up as the other guy is on his way out the door. Cano's already been around five years, and is virtually certain to play at least two more (maybe more) as Jeter's DP partner. Hell, have the Yankees ever had a longer-tenured DP combo than seven years?
Comps are, indeed, hard to come up with. Tedddy Ballgame to Yaz doesn't work, exactly, because their careers didn't overlap. Williams retired in 1960; Yaz started with the Sox in 1961. DiMaggio-to-Mantle in 1951 certainly works, though. God help us if Jason Heyward is the next Mickey Mantle.
This is why I love Barry Bonds' career path. Nobody would look at that 124 OPS+ through age 24 and assume that would be a future Hall of Famer (though nobody would rule it out, admittedly). But regardless of whether he actually makes it to the HOF, he is, regardless, very possibly the greatest player in the history of baseball. So yeah, at least some elite young players improve a hell of a lot.
Parse these splits however you please:
.299/.425/.608 (120 PA) - Before the injury
.222/.328/.361 (183 PA) - After the injury, before the DL
.302/.419/.457 (320 PA) - After returning from the DL
I'll take the over on Heyward hitting .300/.415/.500 in 2011.
I have seen a smidgen of Heyward. He's got a lovely swing, he's a big guy. He should be crushing the ball. He's not. You and others want to blame it on a thumb/wrist injury ... and, if that is the reason, you jump to the conclusion that these injuries will have no long-term effect on his development. I'm perfectly happy to blame it on the injury if you want, I am not willing to assume that won't affect him long-term.
I'm an empiricist. I like to see it actually happen before I assume it has.
My take on Heyward is quite plain and completely defensible -- moreso now that it's pretty much exactly what ZiPS projects.
He's crushed the ball at every level
This is a funny thing to say to someone you accuse of having his nose in a spreadsheet.
It's also a funny thing to say about a guy with a "career" 190 ISO in the minor leagues. That's of course bloody good for a 17-19 year-old but it's not "crushing" minor-league pitching. The crushing seems limited to 195 PA at AA with a 260 ISO.
In the minors, Heyward had 1 XBH per 9 AB with a 2:1 2B:HR ratio. In 2010, he had 1 XBH per 10 AB with a 3:2 ratio. ZiPS projects him to finish about there for his career with a slightly better 2B:HR ratio. His HR/FB ratio last year was 12.2% -- that's Chipper Jones, much lower than Manny (15%), well away from Thome (20% with a much higher K-rate). Are we talking about a guy who'll have 60-70 XBH per year? If so, they'll need to be mostly HR for him to significantly beat that projection.
My question remains -- where's the power. As I said, with most 20-year-olds a 180 ISO is a great sign because they are skinny kids who are generating power through bat speed and you assume that as they fill out, they'll have bat speed and strength and you'll see a good jump in power. But Heyward is huge -- not in a fat way, in a "holy crap" way. I don't see how he adds strength. Why isn't he hitting for more power now? (Injury? Fine but I want to see the recovery ... and it doesn't explain his minor-league numbers.)
What I assume will happen is that they will change his swing. He was a GB-heavy hitter last year and they'll add loft to his swing and the HR will follow (with probably a ding in BABIP). Will they follow at a higher HR/FB rate?
I'm not suggesting Hewyard is confined to a 180 ISO for the rest of his career. Most likely he'll hit a power peak in his late 20s-early 30s followed by a decline (in BA or ISO or both). His ZiPS projection looks perfectly reasonable for that assumed career length. But to significantly surpass that projection, he will need a major boost in power or a major boost in BA.
Heyward projection: 275/395/477, 134 OPS+
Thome career: 278/404/559, 147 OPS+
Thome's ISO is 6th all-time. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that Heyward's chances of meeting/beating Thome's career ISO are fairly low (but not nonexistent). There are, of course, a lot of guys just shy of Thome's neighborhood -- Delgado, AROD, Sosa, etc -- so Heyward having a career ISO in the 250-270 range is reasonably likely.
Appropriate big boost in BA comps would be Edgar (312) and Chipper (306) which seem less likely than Thome.
If he does both, he's inner-circle.
Anyway, at the end of the day:
he had a 335 BABIP last year -- sustainable but unlikely to improve substantially.
he walked in 14.6% of his PAs -- this is already one of the better rates in MLB history.
So, to improve substantially from where he is, he either needs to:
a) strike out a good bit less without losing his on-contact production -- possible given his minor-league K rate and his May K-rate;
b) hit a lot more HRs -- possible given his size and age-20 ISO.
When I see reliable evidence of (a) or (b), I'll give him credit for (a) or (b) and change my projection accordingly.
In short, even with rose-colored glasses, I can't see a good chance that he puts together a better career than Thome (as a hitter -- he may have more defensive value of course). We have just seen Manny, Thome, Edgar, Walker, McGwire, Thomas, Bagwell, AROD, Chipper, Vlad and Sheffield put together such careers (of varying lengths and styles with Mac and Thomas at least having inner-circle peaks). Now, that's an HoF career, maybe even a once-a-decade career (last two decase aside :-). But it's not inner-circle HoF for a 1B/LF/RF (with the possible exception of Thomas).
So, what do you think the chances are that he'll be as good a hitter as Thome? Do you think that's his mean projection? What are the chances he makes it to Manny/Thomas career levels?
Unless you're willing to put his mean career projection in the long-career Giambi to Thome range (280/400/550), then you agree with me (and ZiPS). I call that a "realistic upside" for Heyward.
2. I'm not worried about Heyward's power going forward - given his minor league history, scouting reports, and having watched him play. As much as I'm not normally inclined to agree with my good friend Sam #2, his post 32 was totally justified.
I'll take the under on a .300 BA.
Meh years predicted for Venters and Kimbrel, and lots of people seem to take that for granted. I am a bit surprised by how pessimistic Kimbrel's projection is.
And Arodys gets a 85 ERA+ prediction from just A balls stats? ZiPS sure loves the Braves prospects.
BTW does ZiPS penalise pitchers for a bad team defence behind them or is the projection fielding independent?
I think Walt's analyses suggest rather that young hitters won't improve *as much* as the fans of their teams believe (hope?) they will. The main caveat that I offer is that there is good evidence that in-play BA/SLG for hitters IS a sustainable skill, although there is also some noise in there.
-- MWE
I can't do all of the fun math stuff you guys do, but I did watch Heyward in person for every home game this year. I've been up next to him. He's still fairly slender, but has broad, broad shoulders. He still has a ton of body to fill out. No one is properly built at the ages of 20/21. The power will come naturally as he gets older because he is going to get stronger. There is no might here.
Thanks for saving me the trouble on the first part. It is more that high-K players are generally limited as to how high they can go. That is often overlooked. It generally means that high-K players need to reduce their K-rates to be true stars. On young players more generally, it's a question of where are the likely areas of growth.
Now Heyward is not particularly high-K and his minor-league and May performances suggest he might improve in that area. This isn't a BJ Upton crusade on my part. In general, I have no problem with the ZiPS Heyward career projection as his mean projection. I'd probably call that sort of OPS+ more his 10,000 PA projection than his 12,000 PA projection but that's quibbling over 3-4 points of OPS+ and I don't pretend my crystal ball is anywhere near that good.
On your second bit -- absolutely in-play BA is a sustainable skill. I don't think I've ever said otherwise (for hitters at least). (I've often spoken out in favor of SLGip but have never seen a list and have no idea how much it varies.) More broadly, on-contact BA & SLG are sustainable skills. The "problem" for Heyward is that his BABIP last year was 335 and that's about what Dan projects him at (good) ... but, in the integration era, only 10 batters with 8000+ PA (and we're projecting Heyward's career here) have had a BABIP higher than 335 and only two (Carew & Jeter) have beaten that by more than 10 points. It's very unlikely that his career BABIP is going to be substantially better than what it was last year. So, in terms of a career projection, we can't expect his career BABIP to be higher than it was in 2010. So what has to happen for him to beat that projection?
To substantially beat the projection, he either has to hit 300 or he has to have an ISO around 260 (given whatever offensive context Dan is assuming). The only way he'll do the first one is to drop the K-rate without a substantial drop in his BABIP (or BA on-contact). The way to do the second is to (a) improve his G/F ratio and (b) improve his HR/FB ratio. At his current K-rate and BAcon, that translates to about 370/720 on-contact -- certainly possible. It would be better than Barry Bonds but he wouldn't be the only one. :-)
Those are both possible but should that be his mean projection? Doing one of those (or a partial combo of both) makes him Willie Stargell. Certainly doable but if we make that his mean projection, we're saying there's something like a 15-20% chance he's substantially better than that.
And my "hold the boat on Heyward" campaign began in response to some articles/blogs doing the "look at the other 20-year-old studs, he's gonna be inner-circle." I don't know where other folks put their inner-circle but to make my inner circle as a corner player he's got one more leap (or maybe half-leap) after that to make it into the Robinson-Musial camp.
I don't think I'm crazy to think that he has only a small chance to be inner-circle. And if he only has a small chance to be inner-circle, then his chance of being Thome can't be his mean projection but rather part of his upside. That leaves him about where ZiPS puts him. If someone wants to say he should be projected to 138 OPS+ over 10,000 PA ... well, I'll disagree but it's not worth arguing about.
What confuses me is why all you folks who've seen him so many times never mentioned that he's been a f'ing groundball machine. A G/F ratio of 1.3 compared to a league average of .8. Ichiro has a slightly lower G/F ratio for crying out loud.*
Maybe you guys need to get your noses back in a spreadsheet. :-)
Anyway, in an earlier thread, I guesstimated Heyward to, roughly, Jack Clark (137 OPS+, 8000 PA) to Billy Williams (133, 10000) to Dave Winfield (130, 12000). That's pretty close to what ZiPS projects. He's got a reasonable chance at something like Dick Allen (156, 7000) to Stargell (147, 10000) to Reggie (139, 12000) although that's probably too broad a range. The next step up is roughly McGwire to Thomas to Robinson.
Heyward's skill set is kind of a junior-grade version of Mantle's, actually - he's not quite as powerful, doesn't run quite as well, but it's essentially the same set of raw tools.
-- MWE
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