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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, November 28, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati RedsThe Reds turned out to be nearly the perfect team for Dusty Baker - most of the starters were obvious and the less established players going into the season didn’t have terrible options like Willy Taveras or Paul Bako or Jeff Conine or a done Ryan Freel hanging around for Dusty Baker to fall in love with and put in the lineup regularly if a starter slumped. The starters all played up to or exceeded expectations, which helped the case, preventing Dusty from making many major decisions as the season went on. This helped to neutralize the worst part of Baker’s profile and the good part of Dusty, the part where veterans seem to thrive under him and nobody wants to kill him, help the Reds.
Part of that is why the Reds are probably not really a 90-win team. While the pitching staff had this strange season with no particularly good or bad luck anywhere (with the exception of Harang, the final stats of the principals look more like projections than the product of an actual season), the Reds had pretty good fortune on offense. There were really no big diasppointments at the plate and while nobody was shocking ahead of normal, a lot of players exceeded expectations moderately. So while the pitching staff should be good and pretty deep (most 100+ ERA+ pitchers of any team so far) and the defense is underrated, the offense is likely to regress somewhat - it’s not really the league’s best lineup. I’d put the Reds at about 83-87 wins right now, but the good news is in the NL Central, an 83-to-87-win team with a few lucky rolls wins the division (which is exactly what happened in 2010).
One thing that kind of makes me sad is looking at the career projections for Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen. It seems unlikely that Edmonds will get his deserved call to the Hall of Fame and while Scott Rolen probably has a better case in the eyes of the voters, the Hall of Fame is absolutely horrific at figuring out what to do with third basemen. Bill James’s theory was that with 3B being in the middle of the defensive and offensive spectrums, they didn’t generally have the same “storyline” that an amazing slugger or an amazing glove-guy have. Sounds reasonable to me. Their best bets is for older BBWAA voters to, uh, leave the voting poll and for the organization to be more open to more progressive writers. Now, it seems rather unlikely that they get down to the level of, say, having me be in the BBWAA, but if they add enough Neyers and Laws and open-minded, younger, less-saber-but-not-stats-hostile guys in regular media, maybe they’ll have a shot. One variable is that I think there’s a realistic (though minority) chance that the BBWAA isn’t voting on the Hall 10-15 years from now - if steroids cause a roadblock ending up with a mass of players at the 30%-40% range causing game theory neightmares, it’s in the Hall’s extreme financial interest to make sure that the inductions aren’t reduced to a trickle and will be forced to change things up.
Next up: Milwaukee
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Joey Votto L 1B 27 .301 .396 .540 152 544 93 164 33 2 31 105 82 124 13 5 151 Jay Bruce L RF 24 .269 .340 .495 154 539 86 145 25 5 29 85 59 139 7 5 123 Jim Edmonds L CF 41 .251 .329 .479 87 259 42 65 18 1 13 31 30 65 2 1 114 Scott Rolen R 3B 36 .275 .342 .443 117 422 58 116 28 2 13 62 39 67 3 2 110 Daniel Dorn R 1B 26 .253 .325 .452 110 376 52 95 23 2 16 53 35 110 1 0 107 Jonny Gomes R LF 30 .255 .323 .450 133 424 60 108 22 2 19 69 35 114 7 3 100 Juan Francisco L 3B 24 .263 .298 .480 148 537 68 141 32 5 25 91 24 150 3 2 102 Brandon Phillips R 2B 30 .272 .323 .436 153 610 90 166 30 5 20 80 41 85 21 11 102 Yonder Alonso L 1B 24 .267 .330 .422 139 495 57 132 34 2 13 67 47 102 8 3 101 Wladimir BalentienR RF 26 .250 .308 .456 128 436 64 109 26 2 20 65 38 107 8 3 103 Chris Heisey R LF 26 .259 .318 .415 140 468 68 121 25 3 14 54 35 101 12 3 96 Devin Mesoraco R C 23 .244 .312 .452 122 434 52 106 23 5 19 62 39 109 1 3 103 Laynce Nix L LF 30 .250 .303 .454 108 280 34 70 17 2 12 36 21 68 1 1 100 Drew Stubbs R CF 26 .247 .321 .396 152 563 86 139 26 5 16 66 59 175 33 9 92 Ryan Hanigan R C 30 .269 .356 .364 95 294 32 79 13 0 5 32 36 38 0 0 95 Dave Sappelt R CF 24 .282 .324 .405 154 617 71 174 28 12 8 58 37 105 31 21 95 Ramon Hernandez R C 35 .263 .327 .390 98 331 32 87 16 1 8 48 29 50 1 0 92 Todd Frazier R LF 25 .245 .308 .421 150 568 75 139 35 4 19 74 47 147 10 6 94 Orlando Cabrera R SS 36 .273 .310 .366 133 546 68 149 31 1 6 51 31 57 12 4 82 Luis Terrero R RF 31 .237 .292 .403 93 308 39 73 17 2 10 43 19 88 8 4 85 Zack Cozart R SS 25 .239 .294 .386 149 586 81 140 30 4 16 65 40 129 15 4 82 Gary Matthews B CF 36 .242 .310 .372 87 277 35 67 14 2 6 25 27 71 5 2 83 Sean Henry R LF 25 .258 .311 .368 144 511 62 132 24 4 8 54 33 103 16 9 83 Chris Valaika R 2B 25 .267 .295 .384 147 544 58 145 30 2 10 63 22 117 3 3 82 Willie Bloomquist R RF 33 .262 .312 .344 91 244 37 64 7 2 3 19 17 40 13 5 77 Miguel Cairo R 3B 37 .257 .305 .357 92 230 31 59 12 1 3 26 14 33 4 1 78 Cody Puckett R 2B 24 .227 .283 .384 149 578 67 131 35 4 16 55 39 186 15 4 78 Paul Janish R SS 28 .237 .311 .349 104 304 37 72 17 1 5 30 28 57 3 2 78 Kris Negron R SS 25 .231 .297 .336 148 563 71 130 20 6 9 39 41 140 24 8 72 Corky Miller R C 35 .225 .300 .356 65 191 20 43 10 0 5 28 16 38 0 1 77 Mike Costanzo L 3B 27 .220 .286 .359 104 373 42 82 19 3 9 49 34 127 3 1 73 Chris Burke R CF 31 .222 .294 .330 90 288 36 64 12 2 5 26 25 55 11 3 69 Neftali Soto R 1b 22 .234 .271 .375 154 606 63 142 28 3 17 68 27 143 1 2 73 Chris Denove R C 28 .241 .301 .329 75 237 24 57 12 0 3 25 18 49 2 1 71 Jake Kahaulelio R 2B 26 .225 .284 .342 103 383 45 86 20 2 7 31 27 89 7 3 69 Wilkin Castillo B C 27 .237 .269 .356 96 334 37 79 15 2 7 30 12 59 7 4 68 Michael Griffin R RF 27 .238 .265 .361 116 374 36 89 22 3 6 33 12 72 5 5 68 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Joey Votto AV/117 Jay Bruce VG/126 AV/123 EX/119 Jim Edmonds AV/114 FR/164 AV/110 Scott Rolen VG/63 Jonny Gomes FR/111 PO/156 Juan Francisco AV/123 AV/171 AV/126 Brandon Phillips VG/65 Yonder Alonso FR/130 FR/119 Wladimir Balentien AV/88 FR/128 AV/152 Chris Heisey AV/139 AV/118 AV/134 Devin Mesoraco VG Laynce Nix VG/64 FR/215 AV/101 Drew Stubbs VG/113 AV/121 VG/113 Ryan Hanigan AV Dave Sappelt VG/101 AV/83 Ramon Hernandez AV FR/114 Todd Frazier AV/123 FR/141 FR/108 FR/112 AV/99 Orlando Cabrera AV/97 Luis Terrero VG/256 FR/154 AV/194 Zack Cozart VG/101 Gary Matthews FR/142 PO/174 FR/129 Sean Henry AV/182 FR/232 AV/216 Chris Valaika FR/93 AV/128 FR/125 Willie Bloomquist AV/123 VG/125 FR/116 VG/105 AV/108 Miguel Cairo AV/96 AV/105 AV/113 FR/105 Cody Puckett FR/139 FR/126 FR/110 FR/101 Paul Janish AV/113 AV/111 AV/79 Kris Negron AV/133 VG/119 AV/138 AV/105 AV/112 Corky Miller FR Mike Costanzo PO AV/196 FR/125 Chris Burke FR/111 FR/101 FR/114 FR/125 AV/127 FR/103 FR/107 Neftali Soto AV/131 AV/179 Chris Denove AV Jake Kahaulelio AV/105 AV/121 PO/112 AV/113 Wilkin Castillo AV FR/155 FR/139 FR/121 FR/105 Michael Griffin AV/101 FR/127 AV/108 FR/102 AV/150 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Travis Wood L 24 3.64 12 7 30 30 178.0 161 72 17 62 147 115 Edinson Volquez R 27 3.66 8 5 20 19 108.3 90 44 11 55 115 115 Johnny Cueto R 25 4.01 12 10 32 32 190.7 183 85 23 62 156 104 Bronson Arroyo R 34 4.21 14 12 32 32 201.0 195 94 27 60 127 100 Mike Leake R 23 4.34 9 8 28 27 168.0 174 81 20 54 109 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Daryl Thompson R 25 4.36 3 3 14 13 64.0 64 31 8 22 44 96 Homer Bailey R 25 4.47 8 8 28 27 155.0 155 77 18 63 124 94 Matt Maloney L 27 4.47 10 11 29 27 161.0 169 80 22 43 116 94 Aaron Harang R 33 4.52 9 9 24 23 143.3 153 72 20 41 114 93 Micah Owings R 28 4.94 5 7 29 14 94.7 93 52 12 53 73 85 Sam LeCure R 27 5.00 8 10 27 24 144.0 153 80 21 59 105 84 Justin Lehr R 33 5.17 4 6 15 13 78.3 89 45 11 27 37 81 Ben Jukich L 28 5.20 5 8 28 19 119.3 131 69 15 59 84 81 Jordan Hotchkiss R 25 5.31 5 8 35 13 103.3 111 61 17 48 64 79 Bradley Boxberger R 23 5.38 6 10 38 14 90.3 95 54 12 56 80 78 Scott Carroll R 26 5.62 4 7 20 19 105.7 129 66 14 42 45 75 Tom Cochran L 28 5.65 5 8 24 23 116.3 130 73 17 67 71 74 Matt Klinker R 26 5.67 6 11 26 25 133.3 152 84 23 55 90 74 Dallas Buck R 26 5.98 2 4 10 10 43.7 54 29 7 20 20 70 Chad Reineke R 29 6.09 5 11 31 22 125.7 150 85 25 54 75 69 Alexander Smit L 25 6.68 2 6 17 13 66.0 74 49 13 53 49 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Bill Bray L 27 3.27 1 1 39 0 33.0 26 12 4 14 39 128 Arthur Rhodes L 41 3.38 4 2 63 0 45.3 39 17 4 18 43 124 Nick Masset R 29 3.56 4 2 72 0 73.3 64 29 7 30 73 118 Francisco Cordero R 36 3.78 6 4 69 0 66.7 60 28 6 33 61 111 Russ Springer R 42 3.86 1 1 40 0 30.3 28 13 4 11 29 109 Danny Herrera L 26 3.88 5 4 68 0 67.3 66 29 7 21 51 108 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Donnie Joseph L 23 3.93 5 4 50 0 52.7 46 23 5 31 56 107 Aroldis Chapman L 23 4.01 9 7 49 14 103.3 86 46 11 67 122 105 Carlos Fisher R 28 4.04 3 3 51 0 64.7 59 29 6 32 60 104 Logan Ondrusek R 26 4.09 3 2 66 0 70.3 69 32 7 26 48 102 Jose Arredondo R 27 4.18 4 3 48 0 51.7 46 24 6 28 51 100 Jared Burton R 30 4.22 3 2 49 0 53.3 50 25 6 25 47 99 Enerio Del RosarioR 25 4.60 4 4 58 0 74.3 79 38 9 24 40 91 Mike Lincoln R 36 4.78 1 1 28 0 32.0 33 17 4 15 23 88 Jordan Smith R 25 4.88 3 4 54 0 59.0 67 32 8 19 31 86 Jason IsringhausenR 38 4.91 1 1 18 0 18.3 18 10 2 12 15 85 Philippe ValiquettL 24 4.98 2 3 53 0 59.7 61 33 6 37 42 84 Joseph Krebs L 26 5.01 3 4 52 0 70.0 75 39 7 41 44 84 Lee Tabor L 26 5.37 2 4 39 2 62.0 71 37 8 30 39 78 Gilbert De La VaraL 26 5.50 2 4 29 2 52.3 63 32 6 26 28 76 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Scott Rolen .279 .360 .481 2360 8607 1371 2405 591 48 349 1446 991 1561 125 118 Jay Bruce .258 .332 .473 2283 8011 1213 2067 365 62 410 1183 882 1941 78 111 Orlando Cabrera .273 .317 .389 2203 8545 1115 2329 522 35 133 932 570 829 235 83 Joey Votto .291 .376 .500 2178 7927 1194 2304 469 30 378 1348 1031 1537 158 130 Jim Edmonds .283 .374 .525 2098 7117 1293 2014 455 26 406 1230 1028 1794 69 131 Brandon Phillips .265 .314 .420 1815 7083 981 1875 334 53 221 895 449 999 222 92 Drew Stubbs .247 .320 .394 1355 5009 758 1235 232 37 145 584 516 1422 228 89 Jonny Gomes .247 .322 .444 1270 4010 560 991 201 22 181 614 368 1095 65 101 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Bronson Arroyo 160 152 1 4.31 438 403 2573 2590 1233 344 790 1675 102 Johnny Cueto 149 124 0 4.09 402 401 2361 2280 1072 302 781 1956 103 Aaron Harang 108 120 0 4.43 320 312 1926 2065 948 267 545 1575 99 Edinson Volquez 91 67 0 4.05 247 241 1320 1160 594 144 697 1352 105 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Joey Votto 1B 66% 23% 7% 4% 1% Norm Siebern Steve Kemp Miguel Cabrera Jay Bruce RF 23% 31% 19% 16% 11% Dave Clark Danny Tartabull Jesse Barfield Jim Edmonds CF 31% 23% 25% 15% 6% Fred Lynn Matt Stairs Ken Griffey Scott Rolen 3B 14% 26% 26% 21% 13% Hank Majeski Joe Randa Art Howe Daniel Dorn 1B 3% 14% 19% 33% 31% Jason Dubois Joe Vitiello Larry See Jonny Gomes LF 6% 18% 19% 24% 33% Preston Wilson Wally Post Dan Briggs Juan Francisco 3B 7% 23% 27% 25% 19% Jim Presley Roy Howell Jeff Hamilton Brandon Phillips 2B 22% 18% 20% 23% 18% Charlie Neal Frank Bolling Julian Javier Yonder Alonso 1B 1% 11% 17% 35% 36% Adam Lind Danny Lewis Mike Rendina Wladimir BalentienRF 4% 15% 17% 24% 39% Scott Morgan Jason Perry Ozzie Timmons Chris Heisey LF 3% 10% 15% 26% 46% Lynn Garrett Wes Chamberlain Danny Clyburn Devin Mesoraco C 17% 28% 22% 21% 13%Giuseppe Chiaramont Henry Blanco J.D. Closser Laynce Nix LF 3% 9% 12% 22% 54% Dan Briggs John-Ford Griffin John Valle Drew Stubbs CF 9% 16% 30% 28% 17% Mark Bradley Chris Latham Brian Simmons Ryan Hanigan C 7% 25% 27% 28% 13% Bruce Benedict Joe Azcue Tom Satriano Dave Sappelt CF 4% 7% 20% 31% 38% Alexis Rios Marquis Grissom Darren Lewis Ramon Hernandez C 10% 18% 22% 29% 21% Jamie Burke Al Lopez Spud Davis Todd Frazier LF 1% 4% 9% 19% 67% Byron Gettis John Vander Wal Mike Restovich Orlando Cabrera SS 4% 8% 20% 30% 37% Luis Aparicio Cookie Rojas Jim Gantner Luis Terrero RF 0% 2% 3% 9% 86% John Cotton Darrell Whitmore Mike Kelly Zack Cozart SS 5% 10% 23% 30% 32% Josh Wilson Luis Rivera Danny Klassen Gary Matthews CF 3% 4% 12% 25% 56% Curtis Pride So Taguchi Devon White Sean Henry LF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Bruce Fields Chad Allen Victor Mata Chris Valaika 2B 3% 3% 6% 17% 71% Charlie Hayes Juan Melo Jeff Moronko Willie Bloomquist RF 1% 1% 3% 7% 89% John Moses Pete Fox Calvin Murray Miguel Cairo 3B 2% 3% 7% 16% 72% Dickie Thon Dave Concepcion Casey Candaele Cody Puckett 2B 3% 4% 8% 17% 68% Jim Opie Edwin Diaz Steve Davis Paul Janish SS 2% 4% 12% 27% 56% Greg Morris Pedro Lopez David Fisher Kris Negron SS 1% 3% 11% 24% 61% Robert Andino Nelson Castro Amaury Garcia Corky Miller C 3% 7% 10% 21% 60% Keith McDonald Joe Oliver Shawn W00t3n Mike Costanzo 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 90% Seth Bynum Sean Mcnally Ken Bonifay Chris Burke CF 1% 1% 3% 10% 86% Tony Diggs Jarvis Brown Manny Martinez Neftali Soto 1b 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Butch Garcia Mark Trumbo Danny Clyburn Chris Denove C 1% 2% 5% 17% 76% Mike Nickeas Dave Parrish Mike DiFelice Jake Kahaulelio 2B 1% 1% 2% 6% 90% Greg Thissen Jason Camilli Scott White Wilkin Castillo C 0% 2% 4% 12% 81% Luis Rodriguez Marc Ronan Devin Ivany Michael Griffin RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% Paul Oster Kyle Todd Steve Hendricks Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Bill Bray RP 56% 33% 11% Billy Wagner Randy Myers Mark Davis Arthur Rhodes RP 49% 41% 10% Woodie Fryman John Franco Mike Remlinger Nick Masset RP 45% 47% 8% George Frazier Roy Lee Jackson Joaquin Benoit Travis Wood SP 66% 33% 1% Steve Avery Justin Thompson Andy Pettitte Edinson Volquez SP 60% 35% 5% Kerry Wood Juan Guzman Bob Turley Francisco Cordero RP 28% 54% 18% Ryne Duren Bill Campbell Ricky Bottalico Russ Springer RP 40% 31% 29% Ron Reed Larry Andersen Rudy Seanez Danny Herrera RP 27% 54% 19% Danny Boone Bob Baxter Mike Jeffcoat Donnie Joseph RP 24% 45% 30% Dennys Reyes Darren Oliver Billy McCool Aroldis Chapman RP 20% 57% 24% Mickey McDermott Ken Brett Sandy Koufax Johnny Cueto SP 38% 55% 7% Joel Pineiro Frank Castillo Bobby Jones Carlos Fisher RP 19% 48% 33% Bobby Castillo Scott Fredrickson Frank Williams Logan Ondrusek RP 18% 52% 30% Chad Bradford Bob Scanlan Mike Couchee Jose Arredondo RP 21% 47% 33% Calvin Schiraldi Steve Sharts Toby Borland Bronson Arroyo SP 24% 60% 16% Andy Ashby Doyle Alexander Woody Williams Jared Burton RP 16% 52% 32% Billy Koch Steve Andrade Tyler Yates Mike Leake SP 19% 63% 17% Joe Roa Mark Littell Joe Johnson Daryl Thompson SP 28% 40% 31% Chris Reitsma Sidney Ponson Jeff Suppan Homer Bailey SP 16% 61% 23% Manny Hernandez Livan Hernandez Bob Walk Matt Maloney SP 15% 57% 28% Mike Sirotka Rheal Cormier Frank Tanana Aaron Harang SP 10% 51% 39% Kevin Tapani Dick Ruthven Mark Clark Enerio Del RosarioRP 7% 42% 51% Gibson Alba Randy McCament Carlos Silva Mike Lincoln RP 10% 26% 64% Joe Boever Don Aase Mike Fetters Jordan Smith RP 4% 23% 73% Tim Kester Glenn Dooner Brian Allen Jason IsringhausenRP 13% 19% 68% Ray Moore Mike Fetters Hector Carrasco Micah Owings SP 1% 23% 76% Chris Oxspring Jim Bullinger Ted Power Philippe ValiquettRP 3% 26% 71% Matt Garza Philip Barzilla Chad Brown Sam LeCure SP 3% 37% 60% Julio Valera Doug Brocail Corey Thurman Joseph Krebs RP 2% 22% 77% Philip Barzilla Brian Adams Mark Dempsey Justin Lehr SP 6% 27% 67% Walt Terrell James Baldwin Pat Ahearne Ben Jukich SP 1% 26% 73% Bruce Ruffin Chris George Don Collins Jordan Hotchkiss SP 0% 9% 91% Beltran Perez Jeff Shaw Scott Gering Lee Tabor RP 1% 13% 86% Brian Henderson Tim Hamulack Jordan Gerk Bradley Boxberger SP 0% 13% 87% Julio Machado Duane Ward Karl Best Gilbert De La VaraRP 1% 11% 88% Corey Hamman Brian Henderson Tim Hamulack Scott Carroll SP 0% 13% 87% Nate Cornejo Pat Ahearne Mike Thompson Tom Cochran SP 0% 10% 90% Jeff Tabaka Mark Hendrickson Jimmy Williams Matt Klinker SP 0% 10% 90% Brandon Knight Mike Wilkins Bryan Clutterbuck Dallas Buck SP 2% 14% 85% Martire Franco Brian Bass Denny Wagner Chad Reineke SP 0% 3% 97% Steve Olin Tim McClaskey Doug Linton Alexander Smit SP 0% 2% 98% Corey Lee Bill Murphy Ramiro Martinez Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Joey Votto 52% 73% 75% 8% 0% 55% 58% 6% Jay Bruce 10% 11% 45% 0% 10% 43% 12% 1% Jim Edmonds 6% 10% 27% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% Scott Rolen 17% 12% 13% 1% 1% 1% 4% 0% Daniel Dorn 3% 4% 13% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Jonny Gomes 3% 3% 14% 0% 1% 4% 2% 1% Juan Francisco 5% 0% 31% 5% 9% 24% 1% 0% Brandon Phillips 11% 2% 7% 2% 9% 10% 1% 15% Yonder Alonso 7% 5% 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 2% Wladimir Balentien 2% 1% 15% 0% 0% 6% 1% 1% Chris Heisey 4% 1% 3% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% Devin Mesoraco 1% 2% 15% 0% 8% 5% 2% 0% Laynce Nix 4% 1% 14% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Drew Stubbs 1% 2% 1% 1% 8% 2% 0% 66% Ryan Hanigan 15% 28% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Dave Sappelt 21% 2% 1% 3% 66% 0% 0% 57% Ramon Hernandez 10% 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Todd Frazier 1% 1% 3% 11% 4% 4% 0% 2% Orlando Cabrera 13% 1% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 3% Luis Terrero 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Zack Cozart 0% 0% 1% 2% 6% 2% 0% 3% Gary Matthews 3% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Sean Henry 3% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% Chris Valaika 7% 0% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Willie Bloomquist 11% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Miguel Cairo 10% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Cody Puckett 0% 0% 1% 11% 4% 3% 0% 6% Paul Janish 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kris Negron 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 22% Corky Miller 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Costanzo 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Chris Burke 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Neftali Soto 0% 0% 2% 4% 3% 9% 0% 0% Chris Denove 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jake Kahaulelio 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wilkin Castillo 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Michael Griffin 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Bill Bray 45% 83% 95% 3% 72% Arthur Rhodes 49% 86% 63% 5% 78% Nick Masset 37% 86% 81% 0% 69% Travis Wood 24% 88% 24% 1% 75% Edinson Volquez 25% 80% 88% 0% 68% Francisco Cordero 22% 77% 60% 0% 79% Russ Springer 30% 71% 62% 16% 53% Danny Herrera 21% 69% 10% 12% 76% Donnie Joseph 18% 63% 86% 0% 75% Aroldis Chapman 16% 68% 94% 0% 67% Johnny Cueto 8% 69% 18% 2% 45% Carlos Fisher 14% 60% 59% 0% 67% Logan Ondrusek 13% 57% 2% 2% 73% Jose Arredondo 15% 60% 72% 0% 63% Bronson Arroyo 4% 51% 0% 8% 23% Jared Burton 16% 53% 44% 0% 62% Mike Leake 2% 44% 1% 2% 46% Daryl Thompson 9% 48% 4% 7% 50% Homer Bailey 2% 40% 14% 0% 51% Matt Maloney 2% 36% 4% 22% 28% Aaron Harang 1% 25% 14% 15% 24% Enerio Del Rosario 5% 36% 0% 11% 52% Mike Lincoln 10% 28% 14% 2% 62% Jordan Smith 3% 21% 0% 11% 51% Jason Isringhausen 13% 32% 29% 1% 57% Micah Owings 1% 16% 11% 0% 46% Philippe Valiquett 2% 18% 4% 0% 68% Sam LeCure 0% 12% 3% 0% 21% Joseph Krebs 1% 14% 0% 0% 74% Justin Lehr 1% 13% 0% 6% 37% Ben Jukich 0% 6% 2% 0% 35% Jordan Hotchkiss 0% 5% 0% 0% 12% Lee Tabor 0% 10% 0% 0% 48% Bradley Boxberger 0% 8% 43% 0% 36% Gilbert De La Vara 0% 8% 0% 0% 66% Scott Carroll 0% 2% 0% 1% 36% Tom Cochran 0% 2% 0% 0% 22% Matt Klinker 0% 1% 1% 0% 7% Dallas Buck 0% 5% 0% 1% 38% Chad Reineke 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% Alexander Smit 0% 0% 8% 0% 7% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 28, 2010 at 05:09 AM | 48 comment(s)
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1. Walt Davis Posted: November 28, 2010 at 06:10 AM (#3698183)Well, I would take the "over" on Cozart's stats if he plays all or even most of the season in the majors. I think he can put up a season line of about 260/320/415 with homers and steals about where ZIPS projects. Since ZIPS doesn't account for much of a growth curve, I'd expect him to outperform what ZIPS thinks will happen. Honestly, I am not sure why the Reds kept Cabrera around unless it was to hope he has a hot start and keep Cozart in AAA to start the year, then trade Cabrera for some RP help or something like that, then call Cozart up around June or so.
And yes, I am a Cozart fanboy since I drafted him in the summer of 2009, thanks for asking :)
Thanks for your patience. I'm sure that to those who have followed these projections for years, I look like an idiot, but to someone who's basically looking at them cold, a bit of explanation somewhere would be very helpful.
This should clear up everything for you. :-)
I'm fairly sure he is. He doesn't have a defensive rating listed, which leads me to believe he does a lot of that 'ole' bullshit.
You guessed right on the fielding ratings. Since estimating defense with a number kind of lies about the granularity we actually have, I go by the DMB five-tier system (and since it goes into DMB anyway, it makes sense). The 2 or 3 number is expected error rate compared to league-average - a player with a 100 is league average, 200 commits twice as many errors, and 50 commits half as many errors.
For the comps, ZiPS finds a large group of players as similar to the player as possible, essentially an exercise in fuzzy clustering (with the degree of "membership" having an impact). The three players listed are simply the closest 3 that ZiPS could find. It's mostly for fun, kind of the statistical version of scouting reports that mention comps. A fan that's been around for awhile might not know much about Juan Francisco, but an offensive comparison to Roy Howell or Jim Presley may be more evocative than yet another line in a big chunk of numbers.
I just forgot to include it. Dorn wasn't in the initial run (neither was Bailey). He's played first, left and right and isn't completely hopeless. He's at his peak right now and would be a perfectly serviceable spare outfielder for a couple of years. Reds actually picked or stashed a few guys like that last year or two.
league average OPS for CIN here appears to be .764, but the league average ERA is only 4.21. that seems a bit incongruous to me. considering the fact that CIN's stadium is a ####### joke of a ballpark, i'd think the ERA+ estimates are too conservative. that is, unless the NL's average ERA is projected to be under 4.10.
yup and Thompson too, he was also in that deal and may yet become a decent major league starting pitcher.
The concern with Stubbs has to be the strikeouts. Weird combination of skills as he can run like the wind but takes a big cut at the plate.
I expect the offense to take a step back next year becuase of Rolen aging and the Reds are not going to get the same production from the bench again. I expect the pitching to be better than last year, with hopefully 2-3 of the young starters making big strides. Defense will be solid.
So yeah my bias subjective thinking falls in line with ZIPS.
Wonder where Dusty will try to play Francisco & Alonso?
Mesoraco took a huge step forward with the bat last year. His throwing is inconsistent, the good CS% notwithstanding (there was a LOT of running in the Southern League last year, in part because there weren't a lot of good hitters there), and he still has some work to do defensively. I get the sense that he's got good game-calling skills, although that's tough to evaluate - the Mudcat pitchers did improve when he came up from A-ball a year ago, for what that's worth. I'm hanging on to my signed jersey.
Cozart's projection looks reasonable to me. He could put up the line suggested in #3, but that would be about the top of his range. There's not a *whole* lot of difference between Cozart, Negron, Valaika, and Janish - very similar skill sets, with Cozart having a touch more power.
Daryl Thompson can't stay healthy. If he could, he would be a back-end guy in the rotation, but with his history I don't see it.
The Reds don't have any young pitching with any real upside, at this point, except Chapman (and I think that the Reds will leave him in the bullpen, where's he's more likely to have value going forward IMO but less likely to live up to the hype). I like Travis Wood, but I think he's about as good as he's going to get. I don't see Bailey as particularly likely to put it all together, unless he's become more amenable to coaching. The rest of the candidates aren't all that young.
-- MWE
Can they be worse than Gomes?
Yeah, the Ks are a concern; they always have been (which is why he always got compared to Mike Cameron). That projection would be his worst professional season of his career. I'm just surprised by how skeptical ZiPS is.
Really?
Leake (who'll be 23) and Cueto (who'll be 25) don't have "any real upside" or "aren't all that young"?
I cannot speak for the ZIPS methodology, but it's becoming more common for analysis to place a greater negative on large strikeout totals. Even more so than before. Just too hard at the big league level to hit effectively when a guy is not making contact a large percentage of the time.
I am not here to toss darts at any Reds player or Drew in particular. I am simply sharing thoughts on the projection.
I am pre-empting any spat so common to Reds threads where either their fans or NL Central fans seem determined to take issue/offense with any singular comment.
If it's not Drew it's Dusty. It's always something.
I said what I meant. I don't see either as particularly likely to develop beyond what they are right now (middle of the rotation guys).
-- MWE
Regardless, my issue isn't with the comment, it's with the thought that looking only at a player's K rate will tell you anything. Stubbs' BABIP tells you he isn't being particularly lucky (or unlucky), so his success must be elsewhere - his speed probably leads to a very high IFH% (12% last year, 13.7% for his career), for instance.
Regarding Dunn you fail to mention that I was the first one to acknowledge that he had addressed the weight issue AND that the guys in the radio booth were being unduly harsh in their commentary.
And more recently I was the one giving credit for his efforts when other posters took the stance that the team was just lucky.
I work to be evenhanded.
And as for the strikeout rate I did not mean to suggest that it was the only thing but that it was the leader in the clubhouse. But I also expect Dan to chime in to declare that I am off base relative to the ZIPS approach and why Stubbs projection is at a level that some find surprising.
Stubbs strikes out a lot. Some players can have success and others have their careers short-circuited by it.
I see Stubbs's power output as something of a phantom of the ballpark; I don't think he's that good.
-- MWE
Boy, are you in for it NOW!!
Well Hittracker certainly doesn't agree with that theory (http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_4515&type=hitter&sortm=ballpark&sort=asc). His average true distance was 401.9. 14 of his HRs were over 400 feet long, and all but three was over 375 feet long. He also hit 9 of his 22 HRs on the road, and has always been praised for his power potential in scouting reports.
I ran my old system for Stubbs using only his MLB numbers and it pegged him for roughly the same as 2010, maybe even a little better. Adding in MLEs for 2009 gives a projection similar to Dan's. Adding in 2008 actually didn't change much of anything from there.
So I'm guessing the relatively poor projection has a lot more to do with his minor league numbers than the strikeouts.
Yet, the projection thinks he'll hit worse this season than he did just on the road last year. If he's being helped by his home park, shouldn't he hit better overall than he has just on the road in the past?
Voros is probably right about the poor projection...
If I remember correctly, Bill James' projection uses just MLB numbers; his '11 projection for Stubbs also closely mimics his '10 numbers.
It depends on where last season - and the minor league seasons before that - fit into the range of likely performances that a hitter with Stubbs's skill set would generate.
Based on what we learned from Stubbs's minor league performance, last year's major league performance would be somewhere in the top of his range of likely performance. Now, it could be true that Stubbs improved in 2010 by more than a typical player of his skill set and age would improve year-to-year, in which case the major league performance is probably closer to the middle of his range than the top of his range and the James and Voros projections which use only MLB data will be closer to his actual 2011 output than ZiPS will be. It's also possible that 2010 was at or near the top of Stubbs's likely performance range - in which case the probability of his repeating 2010 is small and the 2011 performance will be something closer to what ZiPS is projecting. Most likely, there are a combination of factors at play - some of which are reflective of Stubbs's skill set and some of which are reflective of other factors - and what Stubbs does next year will be dependent on how those factors interact.
The main thing that I see when looking at Stubbs is that he doesn't hit many doubles and triples relative to HRs (he's close to 1-1), and he doesn't have a high percentage of non-HR EBH (around 20%). Both of those are indicators that he doesn't have a lot of power growth coming.
-- MWE
Thanks for your input. I was looking for more than "he strikes out alot".
I agree that '10 may be the top of his performance, especially if you look at his minor league numbers (which you and ZiPS do). I know there've been a couple of articles about Justin Upton and expectations for young players to progress, but it still doesn't "look right" when you see a couple of guys like Bruce and Stubbs projected to take significant steps backwards at their ages.
EDIT: With the new projection numbers, Bruce doesn't look to take a "significant" step back, but he doesn't progress any, either. Still "looks" wrong.
I have to wonder if there isn't something specific that the Reds are doing with their hitters that's leading to the fly ball rates. Bruce has actually hit more fly balls (exclusive of line drives) than grounders, which is *very* rare.
-- MWE
Two theories (OK, wild-assed guesses):
1. The Reds don't think Bruce or Stubbs can hit for average, so they told them to swing for the fences.
2. The players think GABP is a particularly homer-happy park, and swing accordingly.
Bruce showed his power in the minors (slugging .500 or better everywhere except 81 PA in Billings), but Stubbs' power was only "projectable" until he got to the bigs (we were told over and over again about his "light tower power").
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