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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, November 15, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland IndiansFirst, the good news. Carlos Santana crushed AAA pitchers to the extent that the Indians couldn’t possibly leave him down there any longer without paying for psychiatric visits of opposing pitchers. He came up and hit 260/401/467 and while he’s not quite that good, he’s very good. Shin-Soo Choo now has a 144 OPS+ over the last 3 years - he’s now a good candidate for Most Underrated Player, but not in the Garret Anderson vein where he was called that for years without being underrated in any remotest sense of the word. The Indians have a bunch of interesting infield prospects that, while not future stars, have potential to be average players. Travis Hafner was pretty healthy and while not worth $11.5 million, has put his embarrassing 2008 farther in the rearview mirror.
As the Indians finished 69-93, you have to know that I wouldn’t let you get away without the bad news. ZiPS doesn’t know what to make of Grady Sizemore, but I don’t think anyone else does, either. ZiPS was never a fan of Matt LaPorta and remains in the non-fan category and there are no real impact bats on the farm other than Santana (if he still counts). And there’s the pitching. Poor Pitching Pummeled: Prognosis Paxil Post-Haste!
Next up: Washington
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Shin-Soo Choo L RF 28 .284 .381 .467 137 507 78 144 30 3 19 80 71 122 17 6 131 Carlos Santana B C 25 .252 .369 .438 133 464 77 117 28 2 18 77 87 108 6 2 120 Grady Sizemore L CF 28 .249 .348 .445 93 373 59 93 20 4 15 62 51 91 18 5 115 Travis Hafner L DH 34 .251 .352 .415 99 342 41 86 20 0 12 46 47 79 1 1 109 Michael Brantley L CF 24 .281 .345 .370 157 638 101 179 26 5 7 53 63 74 33 9 96 Asdrubal Cabrera B SS 25 .279 .338 .390 150 567 77 158 33 3 8 59 47 100 13 5 99 Matt LaPorta R 1B 26 .247 .330 .425 136 485 64 120 25 2 19 65 54 104 1 2 105 Jordan Brown L LF 27 .271 .316 .402 120 465 50 126 33 2 8 58 29 77 3 2 95 Shelley Duncan R LF 31 .230 .313 .413 115 378 47 87 18 0 17 60 43 103 2 0 97 Nick Weglarz L LF 23 .233 .328 .393 116 425 58 99 23 3 13 50 55 110 4 3 96 Jason Kipnis L 2B 24 .261 .323 .388 112 449 67 117 23 5 8 56 35 105 5 5 94 Jason Donald R 2B 26 .249 .322 .365 113 422 55 105 23 4 6 36 39 112 10 2 88 Josh Rodriguez R SS 26 .249 .324 .374 100 374 48 93 20 3 7 41 42 107 6 4 91 Andy Marte R 3B 27 .246 .298 .406 106 313 35 77 16 2 10 38 23 63 1 2 90 Ezequiel Carrera L CF 24 .265 .333 .341 125 464 65 123 14 6 3 41 43 100 24 11 85 Cord Phelps B 2B 24 .262 .331 .369 144 553 70 145 29 6 6 52 53 110 8 11 92 Lonnie Chisenhall L 3B 22 .240 .298 .383 148 595 81 143 28 3 17 84 43 128 3 1 85 Lou Marson R C 25 .238 .328 .339 128 425 53 101 23 1 6 40 55 102 8 2 83 Jose Constanza L CF 27 .261 .315 .320 122 460 67 120 12 6 1 32 36 79 28 7 75 Trevor Crowe B CF 27 .252 .309 .345 133 493 66 124 26 4 4 44 39 94 21 7 79 Jayson Nix R 3B 28 .225 .293 .384 107 346 42 78 17 1 12 40 28 88 8 3 84 Luis Valbuena L 2B 25 .240 .311 .367 143 491 65 118 26 3 10 51 50 105 8 6 85 Brian Buscher L 3B 30 .242 .314 .343 83 265 26 64 10 1 5 30 27 42 1 1 80 Wes Hodges R 1B 26 .246 .291 .365 127 499 50 123 25 2 10 53 30 116 4 2 78 Matt McBride R 1B 26 .238 .281 .379 137 530 59 126 31 1 14 68 26 96 0 2 79 Chris Gimenez R C 28 .220 .301 .352 93 304 37 67 14 1 8 30 34 88 2 1 78 Brian Horwitz R LF 28 .244 .310 .333 61 180 21 44 8 1 2 20 16 30 1 1 76 Beau Mills L 1B 24 .229 .279 .351 138 542 56 124 29 2 11 71 35 128 1 2 71 Josh Phelps R 1B 33 .199 .272 .353 44 136 15 27 6 0 5 14 12 39 0 0 69 Luke Carlin B C 30 .210 .307 .317 81 252 33 53 10 1 5 27 34 75 3 3 72 Juan Apodaca R C 24 .220 .293 .305 72 246 22 54 9 0 4 20 23 71 1 0 64 Mark Grudzielanek R 2B 41 .257 .313 .257 20 74 7 19 0 0 0 4 5 9 1 0 58 Wyatt Toregas R C 28 .212 .272 .329 68 231 18 49 9 0 6 24 17 48 1 1 64 Damaso Espino R C 28 .218 .270 .258 73 248 20 54 7 0 1 20 17 34 0 0 46 Mike Redmond R C 40 .214 .267 .262 28 84 7 18 4 0 0 6 5 13 0 0 46 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Shin-Soo Choo AV/113 AV/113 Carlos Santana AV Grady Sizemore AV/54 Travis Hafner Michael Brantley AV/111 VG/83 FR/74 Asdrubal Cabrera AV/65 FR/112 Matt LaPorta AV/139 FR/110 AV/111 Jayson Nix VG/97 AV/155 FR/130 AV/97 AV/97 Jordan Brown AV/159 AV/111 FR/111 Shelley Duncan FR/120 FR/113 FR/113 Nick Weglarz AV/186 FR/186 Jason Kipnis AV/196 AV/126 FR/126 Jason Donald AV/105 AV/105 FR/131 Josh Rodriguez AV/137 AV/137 AV/151 AV/137 Andy Marte AV/140 AV/99 Ezequiel Carrera VG/116 VG/186 VG/116 Cord Phelps AV/128 Lonnie Chisenhall VG/153 FR/159 Lou Marson VG Jose Constanza AV/152 AV/78 Trevor Crowe VG/78 FR/162 AV/78 Luis Valbuena AV/80 AV/80 FR/134 Brian Buscher FR/98 FR/100 Wes Hodges AV/129 FR/93 Matt McBride PO FR/148 AV/131 AV/131 Chris Gimenez AV AV/110 FR/124 AV/96 FR/116 Brian Horwitz AV/110 FR/132 Beau Mills AV/136 PO/120 Josh Phelps FR/137 FR/137 FR/137 Luke Carlin AV AV/134 Juan Apodaca AV Mark Grudzielanek AV/95 Wyatt Toregas AV Damaso Espino AV FR/120 Mike Redmond FR Jared Goedert FR/171 AV/146 DISCLAIMER: BY READING THE PITCHING PROJECTIONS BELOW, YOU ARE CERTIFYING THAT YOU ARE NOT PREGNANT, HAVE A HEART CONDITION AND THAT YOU OR ANY CLOSE RELATIVE ARE NOT ANY CLEVELAND INDIAN PITCHER THAT IS NOT CHRIS PEREZ. READER ALSO AGREES, AS CONDITION IN ORDER TO READ BELOW TEXT, THAT YOU INDEMNIFY DAN SZYMBORSKI, JIM FURTADO, AND ANYONE WHO OWNS OR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASEBALL THINK FACTORY AGAINST ALL DAMAGES ARISING FROM READING THE BELOW TEXT INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO SUICIDE, DEPRESSION, DIARRHEA, DRY-MOUTH, DIVIDE-BY-ZERO ERROR, AND THE IMMEDIATE COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION OF THE MILKY WAY GALAXY. Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Masterson R 26 4.37 11 10 31 31 183.3 188 89 16 76 152 97 LEAGUE AVERAGE—————————————————————————————————————96 Fausto Carmona R 27 4.56 12 12 32 32 187.3 196 95 19 75 114 93 Mitch Talbot R 27 4.76 9 10 24 24 132.3 148 70 12 52 78 89 Carlos Carrasco R 24 4.87 9 11 31 31 173.7 187 94 24 65 129 87 Justin Germano R 28 4.92 6 8 37 17 126.3 142 69 16 35 77 86 Jeremy Sowers L 28 5.13 6 8 28 17 108.7 126 62 12 42 56 83 Aaron Laffey L 26 5.17 6 8 34 19 116.7 137 67 10 56 63 82 Josh Tomlin R 26 5.22 9 12 29 26 148.3 162 86 25 51 93 81 Alex White R 22 5.26 9 12 27 26 138.7 150 81 19 66 83 81 Scott Lewis L 27 5.40 2 3 10 10 43.3 49 26 7 16 31 79 David Huff L 26 5.56 9 14 29 29 155.3 183 96 24 58 92 76 Jeanmar Gomez R 23 5.64 8 13 28 28 151.7 179 95 22 65 89 75 Hector Rondon R 23 5.80 5 8 18 18 90.0 109 58 16 31 65 73 Paolo Espino R 24 5.82 7 13 29 23 131.3 151 85 23 61 86 73 Zach McAllister R 23 5.89 7 13 26 26 136.0 172 89 21 50 72 72 Scott Barnes L 23 6.17 6 12 28 28 131.3 150 90 22 78 94 69 Corey Kluber R 25 6.41 6 13 30 29 146.0 186 104 21 76 109 66 Yohan Pino R 27 6.46 5 11 32 21 124.0 161 89 23 52 75 66 Nick Hagadone L 25 6.48 2 4 20 14 50.0 55 36 6 51 40 65 Eric Berger L 25 6.51 4 8 22 21 94.0 112 68 13 72 62 65 Kelvin De La Cruz L 22 6.67 4 9 20 20 85.0 100 63 14 66 57 64 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Chris Perez R 25 3.15 4 2 67 0 65.7 51 23 6 31 74 135 LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 108 Tony Sipp L 27 4.12 2 2 58 0 54.7 46 25 8 31 62 103 Joe Smith R 27 4.19 3 2 66 0 53.7 49 25 5 29 43 101 Jensen Lewis R 27 4.28 4 4 61 0 75.7 74 36 8 34 66 99 Jess Todd R 25 4.39 4 3 59 0 65.7 65 32 8 27 61 97 Rafael Perez L 29 4.48 4 4 74 0 70.3 76 35 6 27 56 95 Vinnie Pestano R 26 4.59 3 3 52 0 49.0 51 25 4 24 40 92 Frank Herrmann R 27 4.60 2 3 61 0 74.3 82 38 8 25 41 92 Josh Judy R 25 4.84 3 4 43 0 57.7 62 31 7 26 50 88 Zach Putnam R 23 4.86 3 4 39 7 76.0 88 41 7 26 51 87 Hector Ambriz L 27 5.17 2 3 59 0 69.7 81 40 9 26 55 82 Mike Gosling L 30 5.50 3 4 33 2 54.0 65 33 6 24 37 77 Shane Lindsay R 26 5.65 2 3 32 1 36.7 35 23 3 42 36 75 Steven Wright R 26 6.06 3 6 42 10 90.7 115 61 14 36 54 70 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Asdrubal Cabrera .271 .331 .383 2269 8545 1124 2313 479 39 133 891 725 1396 164 95 Shin-Soo Choo .279 .369 .447 1781 6610 943 1846 389 42 211 972 837 1394 183 122 Carlos Santana .242 .353 .410 1826 6409 944 1548 372 24 220 964 1105 1274 65 108 Grady Sizemore .257 .348 .446 1583 6349 1014 1630 353 68 238 891 793 1361 244 113 Travis Hafner .270 .370 .479 1352 4702 683 1270 299 10 221 784 667 1057 14 127 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Fausto Carmona 126 135 0 4.55 364 333 2012 2094 1018 198 820 1235 94 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Shin-Soo Choo RF 57% 26% 9% 5% 3% Willie Crawford George Altman Chili Davis Carlos Santana C 64% 25% 7% 3% 0% Darrell Porter Mark Bailey Erik Pappas Grady Sizemore CF 55% 24% 16% 5% 1% Gary Geiger Gary Thomasson Adolfo Phillips Travis Hafner DH 7% 23% 23% 30% 17% Kevin Millar Lyle Overbay J.T. Snow Michael Brantley CF 16% 20% 30% 24% 11% Gerald Young Juan Pierre Johnny Damon Asdrubal Cabrera SS 28% 29% 26% 13% 5% Marty Marion Brent Gates Yunel Escobar Matt LaPorta 1B 3% 16% 20% 33% 29% J.T. Snow Jim Bonnici Scott McClain Jordan Brown LF 1% 6% 13% 26% 54% Mike Morse Garret Anderson Pete Dalena Shelley Duncan LF 3% 11% 14% 25% 47% Adam Hyzdu Jason Dubois Harvey Pulliam Nick Weglarz LF 3% 9% 12% 19% 57% Marvin Lowrance Billy McMillon Bo Dodson Jason Kipnis 2B 12% 13% 19% 26% 30% Bobby Rose Robby Thompson Martin Prado Jason Donald 2B 7% 12% 20% 30% 30% Robby Thompson Nick Green Jed Hansen Josh Rodriguez SS 8% 17% 32% 26% 17% Jon Debus Jason Donald Nick Green Andy Marte 3B 1% 8% 15% 26% 49% Howard Nichols Erik Peterson Matt Macri Ezequiel Carrera CF 4% 7% 17% 31% 41% Herm Winningham Alex Cole Milt Cuyler Cord Phelps 2B 5% 6% 11% 24% 54% Ron Oester Chris Pittaro Derrel Thomas Lonnie Chisenhall 3B 1% 5% 12% 22% 59% Scott Cooper Wes Helms Howard Battle Lou Marson C 4% 14% 23% 36% 24% Joe Lawrence Lou Palmisano Bob Henley Jose Constanza CF 2% 4% 12% 28% 55% Alex Sanchez David Hulse Kerry Robinson Trevor Crowe CF 1% 3% 14% 32% 50% John Moses Bryan House Brian McRae Jayson Nix 3B 1% 5% 11% 22% 62% Tim Olson Glenn Williams Howard Nichols Luis Valbuena 2B 4% 6% 11% 23% 56% Greg Norton Chris Lombardozzi Bobby Morris Brian Buscher 3B 1% 2% 5% 14% 77% Johnny Burnett Mike Cubbage Tim Krauss Wes Hodges 1B 0% 0% 0% 6% 94% Rich Murray Danny Matienzo Bryan Lahair Matt McBride 1B 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Emil Drzayich Charley Carter Butch Garcia Chris Gimenez C 2% 6% 11% 29% 53% B.J. Waszgis Danny Ardoin Ray Stephens Brian Horwitz LF 0% 1% 1% 6% 93% Nick Alvarez Hunter Bledsoe Eric Nielsen Beau Mills 1B 0% 0% 1% 4% 96% Eric Welsh Travis Hinton Billy Owens Josh Phelps 1B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Darrell Whitmore Alan Cockrell Scott Ullger Luke Carlin C 1% 3% 6% 18% 72% Danny Ardoin Jack Fimple Jayhawk Owens Juan Apodaca C 1% 2% 3% 10% 85% Sean McCraw Doug Lindsey Mike Nickeas Mark Grudzielanek 2B 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Pete Suder Miguel Cairo Jim Davenport Wyatt Toregas C 2% 2% 3% 11% 83% Brandon Marsters Charlie Greene Gustavo Molina Damaso Espino C 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Pedro Grifol Chris Tremie Hector Ortiz Mike Redmond C 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Raul Chavez Bob Boone Tony Pena Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Chris Perez RP 62% 35% 4% Armando Benitez Jose Valverde Mike Jackson Tony Sipp RP 17% 50% 33% Tom Hall Ron Villone Don Carman Joe Smith RP 19% 45% 36% Mark Acre Doug Bochtler Bryce Florie Jensen Lewis RP 10% 52% 38% Derrick Turnbow Mike Hartley Eric Hull Justin Masterson SP 22% 62% 15% Jason Schmidt Aaron Heilman Matt Clement Jess Todd RP 11% 48% 42% Kyle Farnsworth Dan Miceli Chad Ricketts Rafael Perez RP 8% 51% 41% Matt Young Danny Boone Mark Holzemer Fausto Carmona SP 11% 58% 31% John Stuper Andy Hawkins Gary Wilson Vinnie Pestano RP 9% 40% 50% Sal Urso Brad Salmon Jay Robertson Frank Herrmann RP 9% 35% 55% Tim McNab Tony Phillips Jeff Tam Mitch Talbot SP 9% 49% 42% Mike Scott Ed Wojna Don Welchel Josh Judy RP 4% 32% 64% Esteban Yan Doug Sessions Darren Holmes Zach Putnam RP 2% 31% 66% Denny Harriger Franquelis Osoria David Wilhelmi Carlos Carrasco SP 4% 46% 50% Mike Saipe Mark Brownson Luke Prokopec Justin Germano SP 1% 25% 74% Brian Meadows Matt Ginter Tony Arnold Jeremy Sowers SP 3% 31% 66% Jimmy Anderson Dave Otto Greg Kubes Hector Ambriz RP 1% 19% 80% Bryan Ward Jesse Carlson Erasmo Ramirez Aaron Laffey SP 2% 31% 67% Jake Chapman Scott Sauerbeck Heath Murray Josh Tomlin SP 1% 27% 72% Kevin McGehee Greg Perschke Ricky Bones Alex White SP 1% 25% 74% Adam Peterson Mike Morgan Mike Fyhrie Scott Lewis SP 8% 29% 63% Mike Linskey Bryan Ward John Cerutti Mike Gosling RP 1% 14% 85% Buddy Groom John Cummings Ricky Horton David Huff SP 0% 13% 87% Heath Phillips Michael Bacsik Darrell May Jeanmar Gomez SP 0% 11% 89% Bronson Arroyo Casey Daigle Scott Randall Shane Lindsay RP 1% 14% 84% Bill Bene Jeff Smith Billy Sadler Hector Rondon SP 1% 13% 86% Mike Schooler Rusty Meacham Scott Lewis Paolo Espino SP 0% 6% 94% Brandon Knight Danny Tamayo Jose Acevedo Zach McAllister SP 0% 6% 94% Jason Jones Andy Ghelfi Paul Quinzer Steven Wright RP 0% 2% 98% Nick McCurdy Ron Rightnowar Brian Sweeney Scott Barnes SP 0% 3% 97% Rafael Quirico Mike Raczka Sean Thompson Corey Kluber SP 0% 1% 99% Kevin Hart Brian Rogers Travis Baptist Yohan Pino SP 0% 1% 99% Mark Nussbeck Ron Jensen Pete Janicki Nick Hagadone SP 0% 5% 95% Morris Madden Adrian Burnside Joe Messman Eric Berger SP 0% 2% 98% Carlos Perez Jason Saenz Greg Cadaret Kelvin De La Cruz SP 0% 1% 99% Steve Bourgeois John Rosengren Jason Saenz Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Shin-Soo Choo 28% 60% 25% 3% 2% 5% 32% 10% Carlos Santana 3% 40% 10% 1% 1% 4% 14% 0% Grady Sizemore 3% 16% 11% 0% 3% 1% 7% 8% Travis Hafner 5% 23% 5% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% Michael Brantley 18% 11% 1% 2% 8% 1% 2% 57% Asdrubal Cabrera 19% 8% 1% 9% 2% 0% 1% 4% Matt LaPorta 1% 5% 4% 0% 0% 4% 2% 0% Jordan Brown 11% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% Shelley Duncan 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% Nick Weglarz 0% 6% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Jason Kipnis 6% 3% 2% 0% 9% 0% 1% 0% Jason Donald 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Josh Rodriguez 2% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Andy Marte 3% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ezequiel Carrera 8% 7% 0% 0% 14% 0% 0% 19% Cord Phelps 5% 4% 1% 3% 12% 0% 1% 0% Lonnie Chisenhall 1% 0% 1% 3% 2% 5% 1% 0% Lou Marson 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Jose Constanza 5% 2% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 36% Trevor Crowe 2% 1% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 11% Jayson Nix 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Luis Valbuena 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Brian Buscher 3% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Wes Hodges 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt McBride 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Gimenez 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Horwitz 5% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Beau Mills 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Phelps 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Luke Carlin 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Juan Apodaca 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mark Grudzielanek 20% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wyatt Toregas 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Damaso Espino 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Chris Perez 54% 95% 94% 0% 68% Tony Sipp 12% 52% 96% 0% 34% Joe Smith 13% 56% 23% 0% 76% Jensen Lewis 7% 49% 42% 0% 54% Justin Masterson 3% 52% 22% 0% 81% Jess Todd 8% 51% 58% 1% 53% Rafael Perez 6% 45% 16% 1% 82% Fausto Carmona 1% 29% 0% 0% 71% Vinnie Pestano 6% 41% 22% 0% 71% Frank Herrmann 7% 39% 2% 11% 60% Mitch Talbot 2% 23% 1% 0% 82% Josh Judy 4% 29% 38% 0% 47% Zach Putnam 2% 28% 1% 5% 76% Carlos Carrasco 0% 16% 5% 0% 24% Justin Germano 1% 17% 0% 18% 37% Jeremy Sowers 0% 10% 0% 1% 61% Hector Ambriz 1% 16% 13% 3% 42% Aaron Laffey 0% 11% 0% 0% 84% Josh Tomlin 0% 7% 0% 1% 6% Alex White 0% 5% 1% 0% 23% Scott Lewis 2% 16% 8% 8% 31% Mike Gosling 1% 11% 4% 1% 56% David Huff 0% 1% 0% 0% 13% Jeanmar Gomez 0% 1% 0% 0% 21% Shane Lindsay 1% 11% 65% 0% 78% Hector Rondon 0% 3% 4% 4% 12% Paolo Espino 0% 1% 0% 0% 8% Zach McAllister 0% 0% 0% 1% 17% Steven Wright 0% 1% 0% 0% 19% Scott Barnes 0% 0% 2% 0% 10% Corey Kluber 0% 0% 3% 0% 18% Yohan Pino 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Nick Hagadone 0% 1% 18% 0% 59% Eric Berger 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% Kelvin De La Cruz 0% 0% 1% 0% 14% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 15, 2010 at 09:22 PM | 35 comment(s)
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1. Dan SzymborskiThanks for adding ERA+ to the 'average' dividing line.
Jeebus, that's not good pitching.
Yes. He is ####### atrocious. The flight paths of fruit flies are straighter than the the paths he takes to balls. His next career at Big O Tires will start shortly.
How are the hitters sorted, I thought it was by OPS+, but LaPorta's 105 is listed below a 99 and a 96.
I was very proud of myself for using my finely honed skills of deduction to determine what episode that was from the first time I saw it!
And you're not going to share what you deduced?
Elementary my dear Data.
It certainly has the feel of a courtroom drama, which leaves several options open. It is unlikely to be "Measure of a Man" as Riker and Picard were arguing opposite sides, and thus not sitting beside one another. It's certainly not "Devil's Due" as Riker was aboard the Enterprise for that episode, also they didn't appear to have any tables in that courtroom as far as I can recall. "The Drumhead" is another court based episode...but they used a room on the Enterprise which this does not appear to be (as we shall see this was a hasty and technically incorrect conclusion). Also this room is far brighter than the one in "The Drumhead", which was pretty shadowy, to go along with Norah Satie's rather clandestine witch-hunt.
The only logical choice left is "A Matter of Perspective". Riker and Picard have probably just seen some damning evidence of a holo-deck simulation of Riker hitting on Dr. Apgar's wife shortly before his untimely death. (After looking it up to confirm it's actually been photoshopped as Riker and Picard don't ever face palm at the same time.)
probably my favorite episode
I read this and thought Dan made a typo. I knew Choo was good and underrated, but I thought more in the sense that he was an all around player with a mid 120s OPS+ who got overlooked due to the broad base of skills. I had no idea he had been that good of a hitter the past 3 years despite having him on my fantasy team every one of those years. Wow.
All the more impressive in that it was season two, before they really found their stride. I like how Maddox and Data patched things up and kept up a long running correspondence afterwards.
DRY-MOUTH, DIVIDE-BY-ZERO ERROR, AND THE IMMEDIATE COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION
OF THE MILKY WAY GALAXY.
how about laughing uncontrollably?
I mean, yikes-a-mama, that's worse pitching than the Pirates!
Is there any point to turning Perez into a starter?
You're being a little hard on LaPorta I think. ZiPS has him at a 105 OPS+ with average defense -- that won't get confused with Albert Pujols but he's hardly horrible. I mean for a team whose pitching staff will soon be pictured in cigarette package warnings, LaPorta's a pretty minor problem.
Good, but it's no Darmok.
The episode in question was "Chain of Command" where Jellicoe took over while Picard was in a Cardassian prison. Jellicoe has been dicking the crew around, changing shift rotations on them, and he calls Riker into his ready-room. And immediately all of us get on the edge of our seats, because if Riker does his patented leg-swing over the chair to sit on it backwards we have to drink...and it's just the kind of disrespect the uptight Jellicoe deserves (after giving Troi a talking to for her inappropriate uniform). So there is an audible "will he!" silence, and then BAM, he does it! And my brother's girlfriend (who has never watched Star Trek) asks "why would he do that?" and my brother emphatically answers "why WOULDN'T HE!"
It may be a fairly nerdy story, but to me it summed up all that I find comforting about Star Trek...the utter familiarity with the characters to the point where even their body language can express themselves.
It's more of a "concept" than a "details" episode. Of course, I may be impartial because of the fact that allegorical language has always fascinated me. There's no way to substantiate it, but I've always felt that early modern people expressing themselves in Biblical or classical references (or for that matter my friends and I using Simpsons or Star Trek references) understood one another with a precision that we can't get at just using plain old English.
Gotta go - I think there's a salve salesman at my door.
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