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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, February 03, 20112011 ZiPS Projections - Detroit TigersIf the season started today, I’d pick the Tigers to edge out the Twins and a little behind the White Sox. Like Chicago, Detroit has a fairly aggressive GM that does have the ability to spend money when the need arises.
However, the team does have substantial downside that can’t be ignored. The offense is good, but it’s also not particularly young and there’s not a lot of upper-level depth in the organization (there’s much better depth at the lower levels, but it’ll have to be used in trades rather than filling holes in the majors this year). The pitching staff has 4 really good pitchers, but again, not a lot of depth behind it. I still think that the Tigers are likely to win somewhere between 84 and 90 games, but 70 wins would surprise me a lot less than 95 wins - you combine age and lack of depth for emergencies and there’s at least the potential for a wheels-coming-off season. The organization does need to keep in mind that they’re pretty much where the Mets were in 2008 as a team with good frontline talent, but probably not good enough to simply paper over the holes if they disappoint. It worked out poorly for the Mets in 2009 and that’s certainly not the “average” result, but Dombrowski does need to be wary.
Next up: Mets
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Miguel Cabrera R 1B 28 .304 .388 .564 154 573 98 174 36 1 37 115 79 111 4 2 150 Magglio Ordonez R RF 37 .290 .355 .441 108 410 55 119 21 1 13 62 42 56 2 1 111 Victor Martinez B DH 32 .286 .346 .454 124 476 59 136 27 1 17 74 45 58 1 0 111 Ryan Raburn R LF 30 .270 .333 .475 123 356 54 96 21 2 16 55 30 84 5 4 112 Carlos Guillen B 2B 35 .261 .336 .416 89 322 41 84 17 3 9 43 36 56 4 3 99 Austin Jackson R CF 24 .274 .329 .384 156 625 90 171 32 8 7 53 49 163 25 6 89 Jhonny Peralta R SS 29 .260 .317 .412 151 580 71 151 33 2 17 84 49 115 2 1 92 Scott Sizemore R 2B 26 .254 .321 .384 122 469 63 119 25 3 10 44 42 109 9 4 87 Timo Perez L LF 36 .264 .308 .372 100 371 39 98 18 2 6 39 23 43 9 3 80 Scott Thorman L 1B 29 .244 .290 .412 115 427 50 104 22 1 16 57 25 82 5 3 84 Andy Dirks L LF 25 .261 .307 .365 143 567 66 148 25 2 10 61 35 101 20 6 78 Brandon Inge R 3B 34 .231 .312 .390 135 467 50 108 20 3 16 66 48 134 4 4 86 Brennan Boesch R RF 26 .247 .295 .390 147 559 57 138 25 5 15 77 35 138 8 3 81 Casper Wells R CF 26 .229 .297 .413 123 450 56 103 22 5 17 50 35 136 9 8 87 Will Rhymes L 2B 28 .266 .315 .350 138 531 69 141 22 7 3 45 37 66 16 7 77 Alex Avila L C 24 .239 .320 .365 114 356 38 85 18 0 9 41 42 91 2 2 82 Ryan Strieby R LF 25 .234 .302 .384 106 406 41 95 18 2 13 55 37 118 1 2 81 Don Kelly L LF 31 .252 .297 .362 120 329 41 83 11 2 7 32 20 50 7 2 75 Brandon Douglas R 2B 25 .267 .308 .336 89 363 46 97 16 3 1 24 19 47 9 2 72 Clete Thomas L CF 27 .228 .305 .353 93 320 43 73 15 2 7 36 33 97 16 5 75 Ramon Santiago B SS 31 .257 .326 .345 99 284 34 73 9 2 4 26 23 52 2 3 79 Ben Guez R RF 24 .230 .291 .372 125 443 53 102 24 3 11 50 29 124 12 10 75 Maxim St. Pierre R C 31 .237 .285 .360 70 236 23 56 9 1 6 27 13 36 1 1 70 Danny Worth R SS 25 .239 .285 .319 111 398 39 95 16 2 4 30 24 89 10 5 61 Mike Rabelo B C 31 .221 .264 .336 34 113 9 25 5 1 2 15 5 30 0 0 59 Audy Ciriaco R 3B 24 .230 .253 .341 116 443 43 102 14 4 9 45 13 99 10 4 56 Clay Timpner L RF 28 .238 .285 .312 124 433 46 103 16 2 4 43 28 76 6 5 59 Omir Santos R C 30 .233 .274 .324 65 210 19 49 10 0 3 25 10 38 0 1 59 Argenis Diaz R SS 24 .235 .279 .281 131 456 45 107 15 3 0 37 27 113 5 5 51 Cale Iorg R SS 25 .203 .240 .297 137 543 52 110 21 3 8 38 22 199 12 8 42 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Miguel Cabrera FR/120 PO/123 Magglio Ordonez AV/120 Victor Martinez PO AV/125 Ryan Raburn AV/112 PO/140 PO/138 AV/189 PO/112 FR/133 Carlos Guillen FR/125 FR/110 FR/110 FR/135 Austin Jackson VG/108 VG/117 VG/108 Jhonny Peralta FR/78 FR/78 Scott Sizemore AV/143 AV/105 FR/112 Timo Perez FR/113 FR/113 Scott Thorman AV/111 PO/103 FR/136 Andy Dirks VG/91 AV/142 AV/91 Brandon Inge AV AV/73 Brennan Boesch AV/151 FR/168 Casper Wells AV/109 FR/148 AV/109 Will Rhymes AV/103 FR/109 PO/112 FR/114 Alex Avila AV Ryan Strieby VG/108 AV/126 Don Kelly AV/124 FR/107 FR/107 PO/130 AV/85 AV/83 AV/91 Brandon Douglas AV/89 PO/146 Clete Thomas AV/124 AV/176 AV/109 Ramon Santiago AV/92 AV/110 AV/86 Ben Guez AV/112 AV/113 AV/109 Maxim St. Pierre AV Danny Worth VG/113 VG/99 FR/105 Mike Rabelo AV Audy Ciriaco VG/114 AV/165 Clay Timpner AV/120 AV/101 AV/126 AV/122 Omir Santos FR Argenis Diaz VG/102 VG/118 Cale Iorg VG/110 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin Verlander R 28 3.35 18 9 32 32 215.0 190 80 16 67 220 128 Max Scherzer R 26 3.44 12 6 31 28 170.0 149 65 16 63 183 125 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Rick Porcello R 22 4.66 11 12 30 30 172.0 188 89 20 52 96 92 Brad Penny R 31 4.70 5 7 17 16 95.7 105 50 11 29 57 91 Phil Coke L 28 4.72 10 11 29 29 129.7 140 68 13 47 93 91 Adam Wilk L 23 4.99 7 9 27 27 153.3 180 85 21 39 72 86 Jeremy Bonderman R 28 5.30 5 7 23 17 108.7 122 64 16 42 71 81 Billy Buckner R 27 5.48 7 10 25 21 120.0 143 73 15 51 77 78 Jacob Turner R 20 5.49 4 7 24 23 105.0 124 64 15 36 61 78 Alfredo Figaro R 26 5.49 6 10 25 20 114.7 140 70 13 50 67 78 Brayan Villarreal R 24 5.59 5 8 25 21 106.3 117 66 17 53 79 77 Andrew Oliver L 23 5.79 8 14 29 29 144.7 162 93 23 79 103 74 Charles Furbush L 25 6.02 4 8 21 20 104.7 126 70 20 42 72 71 Enrique Gonzalez R 28 6.10 4 9 31 15 100.3 125 68 17 47 57 70 Ryan Ketchner L 29 6.48 3 7 22 17 93.0 122 67 17 36 44 66 Duane Below L 25 6.60 4 10 21 21 90.0 113 66 16 50 55 65 Ruddy Lugo R 31 6.81 4 9 17 16 79.3 104 60 15 39 36 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joaquin Benoit R 32 3.10 4 2 60 0 61.0 48 21 7 23 68 139 Jose Valverde R 33 3.47 4 2 57 0 57.0 48 22 6 25 61 124 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Ryan Perry R 24 4.13 3 3 63 0 69.7 67 32 7 30 60 104 Joel Zumaya R 26 4.17 2 2 32 0 36.7 35 17 4 19 34 103 Robbie Weinhardt R 25 4.39 3 2 43 0 55.3 57 27 4 24 40 98 Bobby Seay L 33 4.41 2 2 39 0 32.7 33 16 3 15 28 97 Daniel Schlereth L 25 4.47 2 2 50 0 54.3 51 27 5 38 51 96 John Bale L 37 4.62 1 1 34 4 37.0 39 19 4 15 28 93 Brad Thomas L 23 4.73 4 4 51 2 72.3 81 38 6 31 36 91 Mariano Gomez L 28 4.76 4 4 43 0 56.7 60 30 5 29 30 90 Al Alburquerque R 24 4.85 3 3 35 0 42.7 44 23 4 26 35 89 Brendan Wise R 25 4.93 3 4 43 0 65.7 78 36 5 28 25 87 Zach Simons R 26 5.12 3 4 45 0 63.3 64 36 7 40 48 84 Fu-Te Ni L 28 5.24 1 1 44 0 46.3 49 27 6 24 37 82 Lester Oliveros R 23 5.36 2 3 37 0 42.0 44 25 5 27 36 80 Jose Ortega R 22 5.90 2 4 37 1 50.3 56 33 6 37 32 73 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Miguel Cabrera .296 .370 .517 2744 10384 1590 3075 635 24 536 1880 1207 1877 57 133 Magglio Ordonez .305 .365 .494 2093 7943 1195 2424 476 26 324 1379 739 969 96 122 Jhonny Peralta .259 .318 .406 2034 7712 958 1996 420 29 219 1047 668 1544 18 92 Austin Jackson .268 .327 .378 1915 7657 1093 2055 396 84 91 634 626 1900 227 87 Victor Martinez .287 .348 .442 1840 6996 862 2006 395 7 226 1082 664 809 9 109 Carlos Guillen .279 .348 .434 1606 5793 865 1615 326 59 151 795 619 980 86 106 Brandon Inge .235 .307 .391 1629 5493 615 1293 251 44 172 722 502 1416 53 85 Brennan Boesch .247 .299 .398 557 2079 215 513 101 18 59 289 144 507 27 85 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Justin Verlander 222 133 0 3.69 433 433 2829 2597 1161 250 940 2752 118 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Miguel Cabrera 1B 69% 23% 5% 2% 1% Manny Ramirez Richie Zisk Jason Giambi Magglio Ordonez RF 14% 26% 20% 21% 19% Pedro Guerrero Carl Furillo Wally Joyner Victor Martinez DH 8% 24% 23% 30% 16% David Segui Jose Vidro Mike Sweeney Ryan Raburn LF 13% 24% 19% 20% 24% Rick Reichardt Wally Post Dave Henderson Carlos Guillen 2B 20% 17% 20% 24% 20% Marty McManus Bill Doran Ray Durham Austin Jackson CF 8% 15% 29% 28% 20% Roberto Kelly Adam Jones Jose Cardenal Jhonny Peralta SS 15% 20% 30% 23% 12% Jason Wood Jesus Alfaro Leo Cardenas Scott Sizemore 2B 6% 8% 15% 26% 44% Nick Green Jeff Blauser Jed Hansen Timo Perez LF 1% 2% 4% 10% 82% Joe Orsulak Bill Virdon Jay Payton Scott Thorman 1B 0% 2% 3% 16% 79% Mike Bell Chris Widger George Canale Andy Dirks LF 1% 3% 4% 10% 83% Lonnie Maclin Bruce Fields Dallas Williams Brandon Inge 3B 1% 5% 10% 18% 65% Shane Halter Jed Hansen Travis Fryman Brennan Boesch 3B 0% 3% 8% 21% 69% Tony Perezchica Archi Cianfrocco Ivanon Coffie Casper Wells CF 2% 5% 16% 29% 48% Jason Cooper Ray Sadler Jeromy Burnitz Will Rhymes 2B 1% 2% 6% 18% 73% Mickey Morandini Craig Reynolds Jerry Remy Alex Avila C 3% 11% 18% 30% 37% Jonathan StillMaximiliano Ramirez Bob Henley Ryan Strieby LF 0% 1% 3% 8% 88% Paul Torres Sean Freeman Richard Johnson Don Kelly LF 1% 1% 2% 7% 89% Hosken Powell Ryan Fleming Leo Garcia Brandon Douglas 2B 0% 1% 4% 16% 79% Onix Concepcion Placido Polanco Ismael Gallo Clete Thomas CF 3% 3% 11% 26% 57% Damon Mashore Scott Lusader Brad Snyder Ramon Santiago SS 3% 6% 15% 27% 48% Casey Candaele Kevin Stocker Ron Oester Ben Guez RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Juan Rocha Brett Carroll Hector Perez Maxim St. Pierre C 2% 3% 6% 17% 72% Chad Moeller Charlie Greene Chris Ashby Danny Worth SS 0% 1% 3% 9% 86% Marco Pernalete Mendy Lopez Adam Haley Mike Rabelo C 1% 1% 1% 4% 93% Mike DiFelice Frank Charles Kevin Brown Audy Ciriaco 3B 1% 1% 1% 2% 96% Tony Pena Franklin Parra Francis Gomez Clay Timpner RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Steve McAllister Joey Aragon Jason Fitzgerald Omir Santos C 0% 1% 1% 6% 92% Charlie Greene Pedro Grifol Chris Tremie Argenis Diaz SS 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% Benny Ruiz Jim Scranton Freddie Benavides Cale Iorg SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Tim Holland Chuck Abbott Kelly Dransfeldt Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Joaquin Benoit RP 68% 29% 4% Troy Percival Scot Shields Ugueth Urbina Justin Verlander SP 82% 12% 5% Camilo Pascual Jake Peavy Kevin Appier Max Scherzer SP 74% 17% 8% David Cone John Smoltz Bob Welch Jose Valverde RP 44% 45% 11% Jason Kershner Juan Berenguer Eric Plunk Ryan Perry RP 18% 57% 25% Charlie Kerfeld Kirk Bullinger Luis DeLeon Joel Zumaya RP 30% 39% 32% Frank Williams Bobby Jenks Brad Lidge Robbie Weinhardt RP 18% 44% 38% Tim Drummond Andy Shipman Jeff Dedmon Bobby Seay RP 20% 39% 41% Kevin Tolar Greg Cadaret Joe Price Daniel Schlereth RP 10% 45% 46% Armando Almanza Tyler Johnson Dennys Reyes Phil Coke SP 11% 53% 36% Steve Avery Doug Davis Chris Hammond John Bale RP 18% 33% 48% Rheal Cormier Sparky Lyle Vic Darensbourg Rick Porcello SP 10% 60% 30% Mark Littell Joe Johnson Joe Roa Brad Thomas RP 4% 36% 59% David Wells Jim Crawford Juan Agosto Mariano Gomez RP 6% 26% 68% Chris Cumberland Jim Brewer Bob Smith Al Alburquerque RP 9% 32% 59% Tom Thurberg Brian Bowles Anthony Chavez Brendan Wise RP 4% 30% 67% Bob Miller Tommie Sisk Larry Bearnarth Adam Wilk SP 5% 43% 52% Blaine Beatty Bobby Livingston Steve Comer Zach Simons RP 3% 24% 73% Terry Bross Victor Moreno Jason Gilfillan Fu-Te Ni RP 3% 25% 72% Billy Brewer Juan Perez Matt Thornton Jeremy Bonderman SP 2% 29% 69% Anthony Telford Don Wengert Chris Codiroli Lester Oliveros RP 4% 24% 71% Chris Schroder Brad Baker Ken Giard Billy Buckner SP 1% 22% 77% Ryan Drese John Snyder Tim Harikkala Jacob Turner SP 1% 24% 74% Bob Wolcott Brandon Leese Mike Bovee Alfredo Figaro SP 1% 20% 79% Bill Swift Matt Achilles Mickey Callaway Brayan Villarreal SP 1% 17% 82% Boof Bonser Jason Bell Nelson Figueroa Andrew Oliver SP 0% 10% 90% Scott Aldred Phil Norton Adam Bostick Jose Ortega RP 1% 10% 90% Sean Green Jon Berry Jeff Kennard Charles Furbush SP 0% 6% 94% Bryan Ward Bryan Braswell Nate Teut Enrique Gonzalez SP 0% 2% 98% Todd Van Poppel Lou Pote Tony Mack Ryan Ketchner SP 0% 3% 97% Benj Sampson Randy Leek Brian Abraham Duane Below SP 0% 1% 99% Matt White Josh Stewart Danny Christensen Ruddy Lugo SP 0% 2% 98% Chris Rojas Runelvys Hernandez Steve Olin Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Miguel Cabrera 54% 64% 86% 15% 0% 76% 63% 0% Magglio Ordonez 36% 27% 12% 0% 0% 1% 6% 0% Victor Martinez 28% 14% 13% 1% 0% 3% 5% 0% Ryan Raburn 13% 8% 26% 0% 0% 2% 6% 0% Carlos Guillen 9% 10% 6% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% Austin Jackson 13% 4% 0% 8% 39% 0% 0% 29% Jhonny Peralta 5% 2% 4% 6% 1% 4% 0% 0% Scott Sizemore 3% 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% Timo Perez 10% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% Scott Thorman 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% Andy Dirks 4% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 12% Brandon Inge 0% 1% 2% 0% 3% 2% 0% 0% Brennan Boesch 1% 0% 1% 0% 7% 2% 0% 1% Casper Wells 0% 0% 3% 0% 7% 2% 0% 0% Will Rhymes 7% 1% 0% 0% 18% 0% 0% 5% Alex Avila 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ryan Strieby 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Don Kelly 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Brandon Douglas 11% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Clete Thomas 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% Ramon Santiago 7% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ben Guez 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% Maxim St. Pierre 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Danny Worth 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Mike Rabelo 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Audy Ciriaco 1% 0% 2% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% Clay Timpner 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Omir Santos 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Argenis Diaz 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Joaquin Benoit 60% 95% 96% 4% 63% Justin Verlander 50% 88% 88% 5% 93% Max Scherzer 40% 80% 92% 1% 77% Jose Valverde 36% 82% 90% 0% 64% Ryan Perry 13% 60% 36% 0% 68% Joel Zumaya 21% 59% 53% 1% 69% Robbie Weinhardt 13% 54% 7% 1% 85% Bobby Seay 20% 49% 35% 2% 75% Daniel Schlereth 10% 46% 62% 0% 83% Phil Coke 3% 40% 4% 1% 68% John Bale 13% 42% 15% 4% 70% Rick Porcello 1% 30% 0% 6% 49% Brad Thomas 3% 29% 0% 1% 79% Mariano Gomez 4% 26% 3% 1% 77% Al Alburquerque 6% 33% 27% 0% 74% Brendan Wise 3% 22% 0% 1% 88% Adam Wilk 2% 16% 0% 29% 30% Zach Simons 2% 22% 7% 0% 54% Fu-Te Ni 3% 21% 23% 0% 40% Jeremy Bonderman 0% 8% 0% 1% 19% Lester Oliveros 3% 22% 29% 0% 55% Billy Buckner 0% 5% 0% 0% 38% Jacob Turner 0% 6% 0% 2% 27% Alfredo Figaro 0% 5% 0% 0% 54% Brayan Villarreal 0% 5% 5% 0% 15% Andrew Oliver 0% 1% 2% 0% 13% Jose Ortega 0% 7% 1% 0% 62% Charles Furbush 0% 1% 1% 0% 7% Enrique Gonzalez 0% 1% 1% 0% 14% Ryan Ketchner 0% 1% 0% 1% 8% Duane Below 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% Ruddy Lugo 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 03, 2011 at 04:21 PM | 31 comment(s)
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1. Davo Posted: February 03, 2011 at 05:03 PM (#3742618)(Yes, I know we're not supposed to use ZIPS for that, but..wow. That'd have to be some kind of record!)
Tony Armas 154.0 30 2006Ken Cloude 155.1 30 1998
Kyle Kendrick 155.2 30 2008
Joba Chamberlain 157.1 31 2009
Bobby Witt 157.2 31 1986
Mark Hendrickson 158.1 30 2003
Ed Whitson 158.2 30 1985
Odalis Perez 159.2 30 2008
Fritz Peterson 160.1 30 1974
Jeriome Robertson 160.2 31 2003
They aren't too balanced in their rotation or bullpen either.
I actually had that reaction this year when I realized that young flamethrowing Jose Valverde will be 33. Which makes me 33 this year, too.
This is going to be a fun division.
Given how pessimistic people seem to feel ZiPS is, if you're a bigger pessimist, you might need some Zoloft!
I do like doing it in tiers. I feel that it more accurately represents the granularity we have measuring defense.
So is Brad Thomas (not 23).
guy averaged .299/.365/.475 over the last 4 years, and ZiPS saw fit to lop off 20 points of OBP and slugging. guy's had a 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, but is given only a 32% chance of being above average. at catcher, no less.
But yeah you pretty much summed it up Dan, there's not much in way of reinforcements if anyone starts spending significant time on the DL.
Oops, I'll have to fix that.
guy averaged .299/.365/.475 over the last 4 years, and ZiPS saw fit to lop off 20 points of OBP and slugging. guy's had a 120 OPS+ over the last 4 years, but is given only a 32% chance of being above average. at catcher, no less.
Guy's not young.
The % are for DH, not catcher (and if the cutoff is the mean, 45% average, not 32%).
ZiPS isn't being notably extreme. Marcel's projection is nearly identical, so there's nothing really uniquely odd that ZiPS is doing here.
Maxim St. Pierre is great, too.
I'm old :(
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I'd probably go with Twins, Tigers, White Sox.
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