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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, April 08, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Final Edition

The download can be found here.

What’s changed?  I’ve added projected platoon splits for everyone.  These are heavily regressed (as platoon splits ought to be).  There’s also about a dozen new players, guys who are on 40-man rosters and are projectable (sorry, Bryce Harper fans), like Trystan Magnuson and Joe Paterson.  These dozen players do not have projected splits as they were last minute additions.

Players are on their proper team (or free agency) to the best of my availability.  With 2200 players, this can be a nightmarish task.  Mapping the 1200 or so 40-man roster guys is easy enough, as are the other 500 or so projected players listed in their minor league organization and not on a 40-man roster.  The other 500 are trickier, and I’ve gone through them one-by-one to track down where they are.  No doubt there will still be mistakes in issues where there’s a complete lack of information available.

There is scheduled, as of right now, to be a DMB disk release tomorrow morning, with everything league commissioners need to get their leagues going.  The only thing missing at this point is up-to-date lineups, which I will finish in the next few days and will be a free update.  At this moment, I’m told that we’ll be able to release it for $19.95.

Why the holdup?  This is the first time I’ve developed the ZiPS disk in conjunction with DMB, so there were many issues that arose that I did not see ahead of time.  One thing is that the database structure that ZiPS generates is very different from the database structure that DMB’s import tools need to have to properly import all the information.  While I have been using DMB’s original universal IDs generated by Tom Tippett, in recent years, there have been two competing sets of universal IDs for all new players, resulting in about 400 players that we had to reconcile.  There are more issues that we had to deal with, but they’re lesser problems - for one, getting career major league *and* minor splits from multiple databases that aren’t using consistent IDs and getting them all mapped to the right place is a real pickle.

Hopefully, with the experience of this year’s conversion, we won’t run into the same issues next year.

If the ZiPS projections have provided you with value, I greatly appreciate donations, which can be made with (surprise!) the donation button.  However, as Diamond Mind is releasing the DMB projection disk this year, please do not include any donation for the projection disk itself as I cannot put any donations towards the purchase of a disk.

Please remember the usual caveats - I project players for their most recent team where possible and ZiPS is not a predictor of what level players will play at, so many of the players listed will not get a single game in the majors (and some never will).

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 08, 2011 at 01:26 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Boxkutter Posted: April 08, 2011 at 03:21 AM (#3789929)
Dan, I am sure you've considered it, but how do you feel about just putting out the projection disk yourself and selling it? Is that something that is possible in future years? Or even possible since it is still DMB's product? With all the work you do, I am sure I am not the only one who would prefer to just pay you the $20-30 each season to get the projection disk out in early March, and that way it all goes into your pocket. I don't know what, if anything, DMB is paying you to help them with the projections and disk, but might it be more worthwhile monetarily to do it by yourself? If there are 500 paid downloads (I really am unsure how many are sold a year) at $30 a piece, that's $15,000 in your pocket each season.

EDIT: I forgot to say that we are all very thankful for all the hardwork that goes into this disk and the projections you do each season. You bring a lot of joy and happiness to baseball fans everywhere who spend most of their time in their mother's basement eating Cheetos and drinking Mt. Dew while furiously studying projection stats.
   2. SG Posted: April 08, 2011 at 12:59 PM (#3790074)
Dan, I am sure you've considered it, but how do you feel about just putting out the projection disk yourself and selling it?

Speaking from personal experience, I know it's a ton of work to make one of these disks, but I would gladly help make one and/or pay for it if you make the disk yourself going forward. I will never buy one from Diamond Mind again, as I don't even want to consider putting a penny in Dayne Myers's pocket.
   3. nemodomi Posted: April 08, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#3790407)
I'm with SG. Would definitely pitch in to any effort to circumvent Dayne Myers making one red cent off of the labors of love of *other* TRUE baseball fans. Myers is nothing more than a product/company flipper, and not even good at that. Same sort of thing happened to APBA as many of you know. Truly a sad development.
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3790467)
I concur with SG. I'd rather Dan get all the money. I'd gladly volunteer to manually put ZIPS stats into the DMB database for free if it meant the product came out on time and Dan got the money.
   5. cardscardscards Posted: April 08, 2011 at 07:13 PM (#3790577)
Don't laugh at me because I'm kind of a sabermetrics newbie, but what does ER mean on the defensive projections?
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 08, 2011 at 07:18 PM (#3790588)
Sorry, that's the error rate as a percentage of league average (a player with a 150 is projected to commit errors at a rate 150% of league average, a player with an 80 is projected to commit errors at a rate 80% of league average, etc.). It's Diamond Mind's method and I feel that it preserves the proper granularity of defensive projections.
   7. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3790620)
Ditto what SG, nemo, and AG#1F said as far as willingness to help with some of the grunt work to turn ZiPS into a DMB database. I've done some too and know what a chore it can be.
   8. cardscardscards Posted: April 08, 2011 at 07:42 PM (#3790641)
Thanks a lot Dan. I love these projections.
   9. sportznut Posted: April 09, 2011 at 06:28 PM (#3791687)
Dan, I noticed on the zip that Micah Owings doesn't have any SP or RP durability ratings at all. Also, Orlando Cabrera doesn't have a 2B rating as well.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 09, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#3791929)
Thanks, I'll make sure those changes are on the update. If you're in a league, I authorize FR/AV for Owings and AV/108 for Cabrera.
   11. puck Posted: April 09, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#3791961)
What's the background on the new DMB? I remember when it was sold, but didn't really keep up with what's happened since. Didn't they have plans to do away with the desktop version, making the game online-only? Seems like they backtracked from that idea.
   12. sportznut Posted: April 10, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#3792216)
Yes sir. I'm in a couple of leagues, one of which I know you're familiar with. BNSL. Thanks.
   13. bjhanke Posted: April 12, 2011 at 07:19 AM (#3794116)
WOW! All that and it downloaded in less than 20 seconds! Hell, yes, I would pay for this if asked to do so. - Brock Hanke
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 12, 2011 at 02:16 PM (#3794213)
Couple of things I noticed:

Andrew Sonanstine is listed as Bats Right/Throws Left. He is actually BL/TR.

You have SP Chris Young on the Diamondbacks, and OF Chris Young on the Mets. That should be switched.

You have OF Rich Thompson on the Angels and RHP Rich Thompson on the Pirates. That should be switched.
   15. Rays&Sox; Posted: April 13, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3795209)
Are the Eras correct? I've simmed a number of seasons and total league offense seems low. If I recall correctly they had to be tweaked last year?
   16. guyute Posted: April 13, 2011 at 04:44 PM (#3795639)
Ya, my sims are way off. Every one of my hitters dramatically underperforms their sims every single simmed season. dramatically and with no exception. There seems to be something very funky with the sims.

Also, the 2011 season schedule does not migrate.
   17. BobbyS Posted: April 14, 2011 at 03:37 AM (#3796552)
The correct eras are in there...but you have to go to the Organizer and to the leagues tab and change it for each league to the 2011 era.

Also, if you migrated, make sure you check the parks, as some teams ended up with neutral parks, instead of their own...but all the parks are there, just need to go to the Teams tab and pick the right one for a few teams.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 14, 2011 at 04:17 AM (#3796585)
I have the tweaked eras, as usual, on the final disk. Hard to do it until I have something good to sim - sims match my projected league level of offense for 2011 now (between us, Pyke and I have run like 1000 seasons sims today to test it). It usually requires a little reverse-engineering as nobody can match Tom for knowing how the nuts and bolts of the sim interact. Given that I'm doing general projections not specifically designed for DMB, it can be a little messier.
   19. VK_Ratliff Posted: April 19, 2011 at 03:14 PM (#3801846)
One fella on opening day roster for the Rangers, pitcher Mason Tobin, eluded ZiPS. In any event, it's amazing how many players are projected by ZiPS and how few call-ups during the course of the season don't have a ZiPS projection.
   20. kwarren Posted: April 21, 2011 at 03:52 AM (#3804067)
Is it possible to get an Excel version of ZIPS projections. The download that is provided here doesn't work on my computer.
   21. blueboy714 Posted: April 23, 2011 at 04:18 PM (#3807144)
I just tried to download the final 4/7 ZIPS file and I got a message saying it was no longer available. Never had this problem before. Can someone e-mail me a copy at blueboy at hotmail dot com?
   22. bbwsmin Posted: May 04, 2011 at 03:15 AM (#3817488)
It appears that the weather section of the Twins' ballpark was not updated for outdoor baseball on the DMB projection disk. Is that something you, Dan, can help with or does that request have to go to Diamond Mind? Didn't they have that updated for the 2010 Season Disk?
   23. Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: May 05, 2011 at 03:45 AM (#3818475)
So, any reason that the ZIPS tag is now gone from most TO threads?

Also - and this is just out of curiosity - what happened to the threads between the final ZIPS release and the team/player specific ones? Wasn't there more than just the 3/25 build? (prompted by my looking for a throwaway request I made for Leonys Martin, who would've only barely met the projectability requirement, so I didn't push it).
   24. sourbob Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:29 PM (#3973426)
I absolutely adore the work Dan does and don't have anything but praise for what he has added to baseball discussion with his extremely valuable ZIPS work.

That said, isn't it way WAY past time this blog was renamed the ZIPS blog and any pretense of providing "A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen" was dropped?

Again, I don't have the tiniest shred of complaint about the work Dan is doing. I'm just wondering if the blog might not ought to be renamed to reflect the direction that work has taken?

If BR wants a blog that follows Transactions, maybe that could be a separate thing.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:40 PM (#3973434)
That said, isn't it way WAY past time this blog was renamed the ZIPS blog and any pretense of providing "A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen" was dropped?

Coming soon...

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