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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, December 16, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Houston AstrosThe good news first. After all, if I don’t start out on a positive note with the projections below, neither Lisa Gray nor the guys at the Crawfish Boxes will ever speak to me again as these projections are grim, grim, grim.
OK, maybe that’s not really good news. But the good thing is that despite the ugly projections, most of the team’s best prospects are at very low levels and not practically projectable for 2011 at this point. DeShields, Villar, Bushue, Ovando, Foltyniewicz, are all likely Top 10ers and even Jiovanni Mier, after an awful season, isn’t washed-out yet (though his star has certainly declined). It’s enough to make a previously horrible farm system a good deal better. Not good and certainly in the bottom third in baseball, but at least it’s going in the right direction.
2011, however, will be ugly in Houston. Just some of the names that are high on the list should be enough to tell you how the season’s likely to go - J.D. Martinez is a decent prospect and Jason Bourgeois and Andrew Locke have (very) limited uses in the majors, but they are way too high in the rankings for any organization that can seriously be called a divisional contender.
And as ugly as it will be, Astros fans should generally be happy about a bad season. Houston is kind of stuck in the same death spiral that the Orioles were in during the first half of the aughts - an unimaginative GM and frequently winning just enough that the team can convince themselves that they are only a few players and some good luck from competing. The Astros, like the Orioles before them, are not and like the Orioles, Houston may have to have a true bottoming out to really have the lesson hit home. While the team did trade Oswalt and Berkman, I’m still not convinced the organization truly thinks a foundation-to-roof total makeover is what is necessary. The Astros 2010 season was the lucky year - they had 20 Oswalt starts and Berkman still better than anyone is projected for 2011 and exceeded their pythagorean wins by 8.
Anyway, I wish the Astros fans good fortune, because the rebuilding process of a team that put it off too long is long and painful, the equivalent of driving your car with the oil light on and just ignoring it until it eventually grinds to a halt. And as I fully expect Jeff Bagwell to be screwed by the BBWAA, fans may not even have that to look forward to.
Next up: Cardinals (~12/19)
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Hunter Pence R RF 28 .277 .326 .463 156 603 89 167 30 5 24 90 44 113 14 9 111 Carlos Lee R LF 35 .275 .319 .459 141 542 67 149 29 1 23 96 35 50 4 3 108 Brett Wallace L 1B 24 .261 .324 .414 141 532 64 139 26 2 17 59 34 129 1 1 98 Chris Johnson R 3B 26 .269 .303 .429 138 510 63 137 28 3 16 73 24 124 3 0 96 Jeff Keppinger R 2B 31 .281 .335 .384 129 463 55 130 26 2 6 50 38 32 3 2 95 J.D. Martinez R RF 23 .272 .323 .395 149 585 87 159 33 3 11 76 37 115 4 1 93 Michael Bourn L CF 28 .259 .328 .348 145 506 81 131 22 7 3 34 51 110 48 10 83 Jason Bourgeois R CF 29 .274 .318 .368 137 457 61 125 18 5 5 37 27 56 27 9 85 Jason Michaels R LF 35 .246 .310 .414 102 191 24 47 12 1 6 29 15 39 1 1 94 Matt Downs R 2B 27 .255 .309 .393 117 428 61 109 25 2 10 53 29 73 9 6 89 Andrew Locke R RF 28 .253 .300 .397 128 486 61 123 28 3 12 67 33 107 4 2 87 Brian Bogusevic L LF 27 .240 .310 .354 125 446 66 107 21 3 8 47 44 118 15 2 80 Koby Clemens R 1B 24 .224 .304 .391 139 514 65 115 27 4 17 79 55 183 5 3 87 Jason Castro L C 24 .246 .324 .351 141 496 69 122 24 2 8 53 55 103 2 1 83 Clint Barmes R 2B 32 .245 .299 .385 133 441 48 108 23 3 11 52 28 87 8 5 84 J.R. Towles R C 27 .221 .306 .378 59 172 21 38 10 1 5 34 16 44 2 1 84 Chris Shelton R 1B 31 .238 .305 .374 101 369 41 88 18 1 10 50 35 104 0 1 83 Jimmy Paredes B 2B 22 .257 .281 .363 125 518 62 133 25 6 6 39 18 108 36 14 73 Albert Cartwright R 2B 23 .243 .302 .372 136 522 79 127 25 9 8 47 38 148 24 16 81 Cory Sullivan L LF 31 .248 .303 .338 101 266 32 66 11 2 3 25 21 50 5 2 74 Angel Sanchez R SS 27 .258 .306 .331 129 481 56 124 21 4 2 45 31 80 4 3 72 German Duran R 2B 26 .244 .287 .349 91 295 31 72 12 2 5 33 16 55 3 2 71 Collin DeLome L LF 25 .213 .264 .391 122 455 60 97 17 8 16 58 24 166 10 5 75 Jonathan Gaston L RF 24 .213 .283 .362 135 494 65 105 19 8 13 62 44 166 9 5 73 Wladimir Sutil R SS 26 .257 .308 .298 132 486 68 125 17 0 1 34 31 62 21 9 65 Matt Kata B 3B 33 .240 .279 .332 116 383 44 92 17 3 4 35 16 53 6 1 65 Jay Austin L CF 20 .238 .284 .350 155 631 80 150 28 11 7 58 40 171 42 25 71 Oswaldo Navarro R SS 26 .237 .304 .314 115 388 46 92 19 1 3 35 32 93 4 3 68 Tommy Manzella R SS 28 .241 .282 .337 115 419 42 101 19 3 5 42 23 96 4 5 67 Anderson HernandezB 2B 28 .241 .289 .317 127 419 45 101 17 3 3 33 29 73 8 5 64 Humberto Quintero R C 31 .240 .275 .337 83 246 18 59 10 1 4 22 8 51 0 1 65 Yordany Ramirez R CF 26 .234 .257 .346 118 393 40 92 18 1 8 49 10 69 12 6 61 Edwin Maysonet R SS 29 .232 .286 .308 101 328 34 76 14 1 3 31 24 74 3 2 61 T. J. Steele R CF 24 .225 .256 .324 75 284 31 64 11 4 3 27 10 92 8 6 56 Brian Esposito R C 32 .211 .237 .284 69 232 17 49 6 1 3 23 5 55 1 0 40 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Hunter Pence AV/81 Carlos Lee PO/94 Brett Wallace AV/119 FR/117 Jeff Keppinger AV/72 FR/101 PO/83 J.D. Martinez AV/138 AV/178 Michael Bourn VG/103 Jason Bourgeois PO/119 VG/117 FR/221 AV/117 Jason Michaels AV/106 PO/98 AV/106 Matt Downs AV/133 FR/134 FR/112 AV/111 AV/111 Andrew Locke AV/158 AV/148 AV/148 Brian Bogusevic FR/123 AV/81 FR/45 AV/81 Koby Clemens FR FR/131 FR/106 Jason Castro VG Clint Barmes VG/111 VG/111 AV/93 J.R. Towles AV Chris Shelton AV/124 FR/149 Jimmy Paredes AV/168 AV/168 PO/191 Albert Cartwright AV/235 Cory Sullivan AV/94 FR/83 AV/94 Angel Sanchez VG/111 AV/101 German Duran AV/104 AV/125 FR/116 AV/114 Collin DeLome VG/177 FR/119 AV/113 Jonathan Gaston AV/128 FR/112 AV/128 Wladimir Sutil VG/131 VG/115 VG/138 AV/114 Matt Kata AV/110 FR/131 AV/108 AV/141 PO/114 AV/92 Jay Austin AV/166 Oswaldo Navarro AV/119 AV/109 AV/119 Tommy Manzella AV/77 Anderson Hernandez VG/114 VG/118 FR/117 Humberto Quintero VG Yordany Ramirez VG/106 VG/134 VG/106 Edwin Maysonet VG/124 VG/108 FR/91 AV/114 T. J. Steele VG/83 VG/83 VG/83 Brian Esposito AV Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Wandy Rodriguez L 32 3.70 12 9 30 30 180.0 170 74 17 60 163 109 Brett Myers R 30 3.98 11 9 29 29 183.3 179 81 22 58 151 101 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 J.A. Happ L 28 4.29 7 7 29 24 138.3 135 66 18 58 110 94 Nelson Figueroa R 37 4.40 7 8 31 17 124.7 129 61 15 45 97 92 Bud Norris R 26 4.41 9 10 27 27 149.0 145 73 16 72 144 91 Jordan Lyles R 20 4.83 8 11 28 27 151.0 169 81 15 57 111 84 Brian Moehler R 39 5.12 4 6 24 17 95.0 108 54 11 36 53 79 Aneury Rodriguez R 23 5.40 6 10 29 23 123.3 136 74 18 54 81 75 Shane Loux R 31 5.50 5 10 24 17 106.3 133 65 14 32 47 73 Ryan Rowland-SmithL 28 5.53 5 10 34 23 141.7 165 87 25 47 78 73 Josh Banks R 28 5.71 6 12 30 25 153.0 184 97 25 48 72 71 Lance Pendleton R 27 5.89 6 12 29 26 133.0 158 87 18 73 81 68 Gustavo Chacin L 30 5.93 3 6 30 11 71.3 87 47 11 33 40 68 Sergio Perez R 26 6.27 4 10 21 18 94.7 121 66 12 52 44 64 Cesar Carrillo R 27 6.53 4 12 25 24 124.0 156 90 22 60 60 62 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Brandon Lyon R 31 3.75 6 5 70 0 72.0 68 30 6 27 55 108 Wilton Lopez R 27 3.96 4 3 70 0 72.7 78 32 7 14 49 102 Mark Melancon R 26 3.98 2 2 36 0 52.0 49 23 6 19 44 101 Alberto Arias R 27 4.12 3 3 35 3 54.7 56 25 4 23 40 98 Samuel Gervacio R 26 4.30 2 2 40 0 46.0 44 22 6 23 49 94 Matt Lindstrom R 31 4.31 3 3 61 1 56.3 58 27 6 22 45 93 Jeff Fulchino R 31 4.32 3 3 51 1 66.7 67 32 7 28 56 93 Tim Byrdak L 37 4.37 1 1 63 0 47.3 44 23 6 25 41 92 Willie Eyre R 32 4.53 2 3 43 1 59.7 63 30 5 26 39 89 Enerio Del RosarioR 25 4.60 4 4 58 0 74.3 81 38 8 23 40 88 Fernando Abad L 25 4.74 4 5 41 3 74.0 81 39 11 18 56 85 Chris Sampson R 33 4.76 3 3 50 3 64.3 73 34 7 19 39 85 Brad Thompson R 29 4.89 3 4 25 5 57.0 64 31 7 15 30 82 Roy Corcoran R 31 4.96 3 5 47 2 65.3 72 36 6 32 37 81 Jorge De Leon R 23 5.00 1 2 24 0 27.0 29 15 2 16 18 81 Ross Wolf R 28 5.18 2 2 30 0 40.0 43 23 4 20 27 78 Jose Trinidad L 26 5.20 3 5 45 0 79.7 91 46 8 36 42 78 Wesley Wright L 26 5.22 3 6 49 9 81.0 85 47 12 43 65 77 Brad Thompson R 29 5.25 3 6 34 7 73.7 89 43 9 18 35 77 David Carpenter R 25 5.28 4 6 57 0 59.7 65 35 7 36 44 76 Henry Villar R 24 5.31 4 6 43 8 95.0 105 56 13 46 65 76 Matt Nevarez R 24 5.45 2 3 40 0 38.0 36 23 4 39 36 74 Gary Majewski R 31 5.67 2 4 49 0 60.3 73 38 8 24 36 71 Casey Daigle R 30 5.93 2 5 48 0 57.7 68 38 9 29 40 68 T.J. Burton R 27 6.25 2 4 31 0 40.3 51 28 7 19 20 65 Arcenio Leon R 24 6.33 2 5 45 2 69.7 81 49 8 61 48 64 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Carlos Lee .282 .331 .481 2269 8682 1213 2449 495 18 400 1491 638 1032 132 111 Hunter Pence .275 .324 .455 1726 6682 921 1838 340 50 254 935 481 1171 139 107 Brett Wallace .255 .320 .406 1384 5150 606 1313 260 18 161 561 355 1204 10 95 Chris Johnson .266 .300 .427 1248 4601 547 1224 254 34 140 645 216 1039 29 95 Michael Bourn .259 .326 .345 1245 4147 643 1073 170 54 27 267 406 849 346 82 Clint Barmes .249 .298 .393 1053 3581 429 892 196 22 92 433 204 630 61 77 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Brett Myers 148 130 21 4.20 439 386 2479 2480 1158 334 830 2022 99 Wandy Rodriguez 133 120 0 4.10 354 346 2039 2009 929 224 717 1748 101 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Hunter Pence RF 10% 26% 22% 21% 20% Glenn Braggs Al Cowens Rondell White Carlos Lee LF 9% 21% 20% 24% 26% Del Ennis Frank Thomas Keith Moreland Brett Wallace 1B 1% 8% 13% 32% 45% Adam Lind Daryle Ward Scott Cooper Chris Johnson 3B 5% 16% 24% 27% 28% Brook Jacoby Clete Boyer Jeff Hamilton Jeff Keppinger 2B 12% 14% 19% 27% 28% Rich Dauer Edgardo Alfonzo Todd Haney J.D. Martinez RF 2% 8% 13% 24% 54% Jose Guillen Delmon Young Victor Mata Michael Bourn CF 12% 16% 28% 27% 17% Omar Moreno Kevin Rhomberg Chris Duffy Jason Bourgeois CF 6% 9% 22% 31% 32% Doug Glanville Brandon Watson Mike Spidale Jason Michaels LF 2% 7% 10% 20% 61% Mark Smith Mike Macfarlane Darrell Whitmore Matt Downs 2B 7% 8% 14% 26% 45% Kelly Heath Brandon Phillips Nelson Johnson Andrew Locke RF 0% 3% 6% 17% 74% Rod Allen Mike Vento Scott Krause Brian Bogusevic LF 1% 3% 5% 13% 79% Jason Maas Andy Tomberlin Dave Brundage Koby Clemens 1B 0% 3% 5% 19% 73% Inocencio Guerrero Alan Cockrell Brian Rosinski Jason Castro C 3% 10% 19% 36% 32%Eric Christopherson Koyie Hill Mike Fitzgerald Clint Barmes 2B 4% 5% 9% 20% 62% Mike Bell Andy Sheets Webster Garrison J.R. Towles C 7% 15% 20% 30% 28% Bill Dobrolsky Blake Barthol Tom Nieto Chris Shelton 1B 0% 0% 2% 11% 87% Chris Saunders Derek Nicholson Chris Pritchett Jimmy Paredes 2B 2% 4% 9% 16% 69% Shawon Dunston Carlos Garcia Tony Abreu Albert Cartwright 2B 4% 3% 6% 15% 72% Mariano Duncan Mike Young Henry Mateo Cory Sullivan LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Ryan Fleming Joe Simpson Nick Alvarez Angel Sanchez SS 1% 3% 11% 27% 59% Ed Brinkman Gus Polidor Ronny Cedeno German Duran 2B 3% 2% 3% 7% 85% Rob Mummau Pedro Lopez Zach Borowiak Collin DeLome LF 0% 1% 2% 6% 90% Chris Dickerson Reggie Abercrombie Brad Snyder Jonathan Gaston RF 1% 2% 2% 5% 90% Fletcher Bates Brad Snyder Gary Varsho Wladimir Sutil SS 0% 1% 5% 17% 77% Rafael Santana Jerry Dybzinski Felix Fermin Matt Kata 3B 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Alfredo Griffin Neifi Perez Chris Petersen Jay Austin CF 0% 1% 4% 12% 82% Daryl Boston Herm Winningham Elijah Bonaparte Oswaldo Navarro SS 0% 1% 6% 20% 73% Bert Pena John Hotchkiss Tom Hayes Tommy Manzella SS 0% 1% 4% 11% 84% Johnnie LeMaster Mendy Lopez Jason Bowers Anderson Hernandez2B 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Gary Miller-Jones Doug Baker Casey Smith Humberto Quintero C 1% 2% 3% 12% 82% Charlie Greene Mike DiFelice Jeff Smith Yordany Ramirez CF 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% John Myrow Charlie Fermaint Jamie Gann Edwin Maysonet SS 0% 1% 3% 8% 88% Chris Petersen Gary Green Keith Johns T. J. Steele CF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Angel Valdez Hector Guzman Ramon Cedeno Brian Esposito C 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Charlie Greene Chad Moeller Chris Ashby Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Wandy Rodriguez SP 51% 44% 6% Bruce Hurst Teddy Higuera Andy Pettitte Brandon Lyon RP 21% 54% 25% Ben Weber Jim Brower Sean Lowe Wilton Lopez RP 19% 46% 35% Don Gordon Jeff Tam John Doherty Brett Myers SP 28% 59% 13% Freddy Garcia Chris Carpenter Matt Morris Mark Melancon RP 16% 46% 37% Steve Ontiveros Brad Clontz Cris Carpenter Alberto Arias RP 13% 42% 44% Tom Mastny Mark Lee Jerry Dipoto J.A. Happ SP 14% 55% 32% Kent Mercker Trevor Wilson John Tudor Samuel Gervacio RP 20% 48% 32% Brian Bruney Ray Krawczyk Ben Hayes Matt Lindstrom RP 10% 38% 53% Sean Lowe Antonio Alfonseca Scott Atchison Jeff Fulchino RP 6% 43% 51% Bryce Florie Bill Campbell Floyd Chiffer Tim Byrdak RP 10% 40% 49% Ron Villone Ron Mahay John Hiller Nelson Figueroa SP 18% 44% 38% Steve Renko Miguel Batista Pete Walker Bud Norris SP 12% 57% 31% Ryan Dempster Daniel Cabrera Mike Bielecki Willie Eyre RP 8% 35% 57% Kevin Gryboski Tom Timmermann Milo Candini Enerio Del RosarioRP 4% 37% 59% Gibson Alba Randy McCament Carlos Silva Fernando Abad RP 3% 25% 72% Chris Key Cliff Young Roberto Rivera Chris Sampson RP 11% 44% 45% Bob Stanley Mark Petkovsek Bobby Tiefenauer Jordan Lyles SP 3% 41% 56% George Stablein Sergio Mitre Dave Weathers Brad Thompson RP 6% 21% 73% Tim Harikkala Mickey Weston Bill Fischer Roy Corcoran RP 2% 17% 80% Jim Todd Gary Wagner Dale Murray Jorge De Leon RP 8% 22% 70% Heathcliff Slocumb Alan Mills Julio DePaula Brian Moehler SP 6% 24% 70% Mike Morgan Milt Gaston Steve Ontiveros Ross Wolf RP 5% 27% 68% Sean Green Greg Bauer Kevin Cameron Jose Trinidad RP 1% 11% 88% Gabe Gonzalez Tanyon Sturtze Juan Agosto Wesley Wright RP 0% 10% 89% Brandon Bowe Paul Mancuso Rich Scheid Brad Thompson RP 2% 14% 83% Tim Harikkala Ron Taylor Tom Brennan David Carpenter RP 1% 13% 86% Marc Pisciotta Brian Bowles David Aardsma Henry Villar RP 0% 6% 94% Shane Bazzell Julio DePaula Dennis Konuszewski Aneury Rodriguez SP 2% 26% 72% Tim Mauser Rob Woodward Steve Farr Matt Nevarez RP 2% 10% 88% Ted Langdon Rich Pratt Jeff Smith Shane Loux SP 2% 15% 83% Joe Mays Pat Ahearne Brian Tollberg Ryan Rowland-SmithSP 0% 8% 92% Michael Bacsik Ryan O’Malley Jamie Walker Gary Majewski RP 1% 7% 92% Danny Graves Todd Williams Carl Willis Josh Banks SP 0% 5% 95% Mark Johnson Brad Ziegler Dave Ford Lance Pendleton SP 0% 3% 97% Ben Fritz Daron Kirkreit Edwardo Sierra Gustavo Chacin SP 0% 3% 97% Chris Michalak Adam Pettyjohn Jamie Walker Casey Daigle RP 0% 4% 96% Mike Villano Jamie Brewington Steve Mintz T.J. Burton RP 0% 3% 96% Nick McCurdy Steven Rowe Alan Benes Sergio Perez SP 0% 1% 99% Ben Fritz Carlos Paredes Adam Russell Arcenio Leon RP 0% 1% 99% Tim Meeks Mike Schultz Edwardo Sierra Cesar Carrillo SP 0% 0% 100% Brandon Emanuel Bryan Eversgerd Edward Valdez Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Hunter Pence 15% 3% 16% 4% 6% 24% 4% 5% Carlos Lee 14% 2% 16% 2% 0% 14% 4% 0% Brett Wallace 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% Chris Johnson 9% 0% 6% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% Jeff Keppinger 21% 8% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% J.D. Martinez 10% 2% 1% 8% 3% 1% 1% 0% Michael Bourn 4% 4% 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 96% Jason Bourgeois 14% 2% 1% 0% 5% 0% 1% 36% Jason Michaels 5% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Matt Downs 4% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% Andrew Locke 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% Brian Bogusevic 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Koby Clemens 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 0% 0% Jason Castro 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Clint Barmes 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% J.R. Towles 2% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Chris Shelton 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jimmy Paredes 4% 0% 2% 1% 16% 0% 0% 64% Albert Cartwright 1% 0% 2% 1% 39% 1% 1% 17% Cory Sullivan 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Angel Sanchez 4% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% German Duran 3% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Collin DeLome 0% 0% 2% 0% 29% 2% 0% 0% Jonathan Gaston 0% 0% 2% 0% 31% 2% 0% 0% Wladimir Sutil 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% Matt Kata 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jay Austin 0% 0% 0% 4% 55% 0% 0% 87% Oswaldo Navarro 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tommy Manzella 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Anderson Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Humberto Quintero 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yordany Ramirez 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Edwin Maysonet 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% T. J. Steele 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Brian Esposito 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Wandy Rodriguez 16% 77% 56% 3% 74% Brandon Lyon 16% 69% 11% 2% 85% Wilton Lopez 15% 53% 3% 77% 74% Brett Myers 7% 56% 21% 4% 44% Mark Melancon 16% 55% 33% 6% 62% Alberto Arias 9% 47% 8% 1% 89% J.A. Happ 2% 34% 15% 0% 30% Samuel Gervacio 14% 60% 73% 0% 51% Matt Lindstrom 6% 40% 19% 2% 66% Jeff Fulchino 6% 42% 33% 1% 66% Tim Byrdak 10% 42% 42% 0% 48% Nelson Figueroa 5% 37% 23% 6% 54% Bud Norris 2% 34% 75% 0% 63% Willie Eyre 6% 31% 5% 2% 82% Enerio Del Rosario 3% 29% 0% 13% 55% Fernando Abad 2% 23% 9% 39% 29% Chris Sampson 11% 43% 4% 19% 64% Jordan Lyles 0% 14% 4% 0% 75% Brad Thompson 4% 22% 2% 36% 44% Roy Corcoran 2% 15% 1% 1% 69% Jorge De Leon 8% 30% 6% 0% 85% Brian Moehler 2% 12% 2% 6% 58% Ross Wolf 5% 24% 5% 1% 61% Jose Trinidad 1% 7% 0% 0% 71% Wesley Wright 0% 6% 18% 0% 28% Brad Thompson 2% 13% 1% 39% 46% David Carpenter 0% 7% 8% 0% 64% Henry Villar 0% 3% 1% 0% 39% Aneury Rodriguez 0% 8% 1% 0% 27% Matt Nevarez 2% 12% 60% 0% 69% Shane Loux 0% 6% 1% 15% 45% Ryan Rowland-Smith 0% 1% 0% 2% 6% Gary Majewski 0% 6% 0% 1% 47% Josh Banks 0% 1% 0% 5% 10% Lance Pendleton 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% Gustavo Chacin 0% 2% 1% 0% 23% Casey Daigle 0% 3% 4% 0% 23% T.J. Burton 0% 2% 0% 1% 20% Sergio Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% Arcenio Leon 0% 1% 3% 0% 66% Cesar Carrillo 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 16, 2010 at 05:42 PM | 47 comment(s)
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1. Barold Posted: December 16, 2010 at 06:01 PM (#3712368)But that lineup looks godawful - probably the worst I've seen thus far. Seattle, KC, Houston - the race for 500 runs scored!
For that matter, I guess I've been surprised at some of the positions players have (not) been rated at this winter (Jake Fox and Logan Morrison are the only examples I can think of off the top of my head), and it leads me to wonder how Dan is choosing which positions a given player will be eligible for.
Again, though, that's just nitpicking; I'm thrilled to see the projections, period.
The pitching: awful but in a different way: [ERA+]
Astros starter projections:
109
101
94
92
91
84
79
75
73
73
Pirates starter projections:
98
97
92
88
87
83
82
81
80
76
Astros reliever projections:
108
102
101
98
94
93
93
92
89
88
Pirates reliever projections:
117
113
97
95
93
92
91
81
80
78
There was a pitcher with that name.
-- MWE
and not because it is even grimmer than you show
i have heard from very good info that fast eddie has been ordeerd to reduce payroll to 60 or so mill at MOST and therefore he is now trying to get rid of not only matt lindstrom, carlos lee (FAT chance - hahahaha) and jeff keppinger (for that mysterious cheaper, better hitting sec ond baseman) but pence, bourn and wandy as well
the ONLY well paid player not available is fast eddie's little petsy-poo, the ol WifeBeater and his 12 mill. oh yeah - and brandon lyon - hey, gots to save those 40 or so wins
the team is gonna look a LOT mnore like the 03 tigers
and anyone who wants defensive ratings for chris johnson can enter "teh sukc" and go from there
The same as when one has Ryan Braun or when Carlos Lee has Frank Thomas.
Just imagine how confused I was in real time. What are the odds -- only two MLBers in history with the last name Ontiveros and they're both Steves and apparently not related?
Yes it was worse than the Torrealabas
A year of defensive numbers is about as useful as 2 months of offensive numbers. As he has half-a-year of defensive numbers in the last 3 at SS, the *implied* SS numbers based on 2B play also factor in which suggest a "true" SS range value of 2-3 runs above average a year.
You know, I knew there was a Steve Ontiveros position player, but I grew up with the pitcher (who won an ERA title!) so the idea that someone would think of the other guy first made me laugh. I'm easily amused, which is nice.
I'd forgotten about them.
The best of course is that, by b-r sim scores, Alex Gonzalez is Alex Gonzalez's most similar player for ages 26-30 while Alex Gonzalez is Alex Gonzalez's most similar player from ages 26-33.
And, no, I ain't taking the under on 70 wins. I don't know how but somehow they will win 75 games. Yes, they'll probably start the season something like 20-50 and then, somehow, they will win 75 games. Maybe God figures living in Houston is punishment enough and can't bear to inflict a 100-loss team on the people as well.
Big defense change.
They get to fight the Pirates for 5th.
That's a B and a B- or 2 B-'s, per Sickels. Makes sense to me in the context of the Gonzalez trade, but of course I'm biased as a Yankee fan.
In the abstract, yes, but 'Stros seem overly optimistic on Jason Castro's future. So I don't think they're in the market for a catching prospect.
In the AL East, I suspect we'd have to measure Houston's quality in seasons per win, not wins per season.
The one w/ wings on his ankles, obviously.
How many potential buyers will be spooked when their baseball consultants tell them, "Even if you hire a dream team front office, make absolutely no mistakes and get no bad breaks... your new team won't be in contention for at least 4-5 years?"
Unfortunately the rumored lists of possible buyers I've seen are full of the kind of people who would not panic over such news: i.e. out of town investment groups who would be happy to take over a low payroll and treat the team like a stock portfolio instead of a competitive sporting venture... just coasting along and skimming dividends (revenue sharing payments and proceeds from the new, very favorable local TV deal) while hoping for a gradual increase in value (the pattern for MLB franchises to date)...
ERA+ is already adjusted for the league so it shouldn't change from just switching leagues. I would think it changes because he is going from a very strong defensive team to a very poor defensive team.
The Astros haven't had a 100 loss team in its history. I am very skeptical that it starts now. The Astros' actual record has exceeded its Pythagorean Record in all but one of the last 5 years. I don't know why. But Walt's description seems to fit the Astros typical season. I think most people here would have taken the under on 70 wins last year. At the end of May, the Astros' record was 17-34, and a 100 loss season seemed likely. For the first half of the season, the Astros' record was 36-53. For the second half of the season (despite trading away Oswalt and Berkman), the Astros record was 40-33. Again, I don't know why, but the Astros seem to make a habit of coming on strong in the second half of the season.
In addition to Castro, the Astros also have a couple of upwardly mobile catchers in the farm system. Ben Heath, drafted out of Penn State in 2010, made it from short season low-A up to AA by the end of the season. I take it that the Astros must like him.
Fangraphs shows a UZR/150 for Tampa of +5 and -2.9 for the Astros. If I understand how to apply that correctly, that would be about 75 runs per year difference. The Astros are ranked 20th and the Rays are ranked 5th by UZR.
not exactly, era+ is adjusted relative to it's league, It has nothing to do with the other league. If you have a 100 era+ in double A, it doesn't mean it projects to 100+ in the majors. Many people feel that the al is the stronger league and that a 100+ pitcher there is better than a 100+ pitcher in the nl, a good projection system accounts for that.
But more importantly, observed difference != projected difference. There's so much uncertainty in defensive stats that projecting a difference that large is really going out on a limb. I don't think you can ever confidently project a team to be more than 50 runs above or below average. I do my own individual defense projections based on a combination of STATS ZR and BIS ZR... right now, I don't have any team projected more extreme than +/- 35.
The Astros' defensive alignment will be different next year, and it probably will be better than 2010. A middle infield combination of Barmes and Hall probably will improve defense at those positions. If Lee plays more 1st base, I would expect the Astros' overall defense to improve, since Lee's outfield D is the biggest drag on the Astros' overall rating. Wallace looked good on defense at 1st base last year. So, even if Lee doesn't play 1st base, there probably will be some improvement on the 2010 defense at 1st base. Chris Johnson's defense probably can't get worse at 3d base, and it's alway possible that he improves a bit.
Don't be baggin on my boy Stevie now......he was my son's pitching coach and a damn good one. He also won an ERA title in the strike shortened season of 94. 113 Career ERA+. Most importantly, good guy. Good coach.
Where?
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