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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Thursday, November 25, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City RoyalsLet’s get the obvious out of the way first: the Royals are a pretty lousy team at the major league level and the general manager, Dayton Moore, evaluates talent at the major league level almost as bad as, well, I can’t think of anything at the time. (Paris Hilton hides cocaine? Roman Polanski shows up for trial? Murray Chass does anything that requires coherent thought? None of these seem worse)
What the Royals do have is an amazing farm system, up-and-down, there are a number of potential stars, starters, and even an impressive slate of guys who should be solid role players. The biggest question facing the Royals in the near future is how Moore will handle transitioning these players into major league roles. For example, Mike Montgomery or John Lamb are likely to force their way into the rotation, but what happens to the players that can contribute but whose impact in the majors is less than utterly and completely obvious? Butler and Greinke were treated well by the organization, but Moore’s management style towards non-stars under 30 seems to be best described as hostile indifference. So in recent years, there’s been a situation in which useful players like Ka’aihue, Aviles, Gordon, Maier, and others are just kind of “hanging around.” Sure, they’ll keep getting at-bats when they play well, but they’re always bad road trip from being benched and their opportunities never seem to follow any logical train-of-thought derived from the organizations strengths or weaknesses. So you end up with situations in which Willie Bloomquist ends up being a starting corner outfielder because Moore’s played Sgt. Schulz with talent, despite corner outfielders better than Bloomquist being easier to find than abandoned houses in Detroit.
But the talent is there and the Royals do have an opportunity to be the surprise team of 2012 or 2013 if they just seize it. A lot of even the low-level guys have the potential to race through the system this year. One last note, Wil Myers isn’t as ready to catch in the majors as he looks like below - his arm is MLB quality (he can reportedly throw 90 and pitched in high school), but he’s still fairly new to catching and very unpolished at the “other” stuff.
Next up: Cincinnati
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Billy Butler R 1B 25 .304 .372 .467 154 572 75 174 40 1 17 81 62 82 0 0 125 Kila Ka’aihue L 1B 27 .244 .355 .412 141 495 72 121 21 1 20 70 84 104 1 1 107 Mike Aviles R 2B 30 .290 .319 .416 114 449 64 130 22 4 9 46 19 57 9 3 97 Wilson Betemit B 3B 29 .258 .327 .433 107 326 36 84 22 1 11 45 34 87 1 1 103 Alex Gordon L LF 27 .244 .342 .407 129 464 73 113 27 2 15 55 63 126 8 4 102 Eric Hosmer L 1B 21 .263 .321 .413 154 593 70 156 35 6 14 82 50 111 8 2 97 Chris Getz L 2B 27 .277 .336 .363 107 358 45 99 18 2 3 33 29 46 18 3 89 Mike Moustakas B 3B 22 .258 .295 .435 152 616 81 159 41 1 22 100 31 104 6 4 94 William Myers R C 20 .251 .335 .392 154 577 66 145 39 3 12 76 69 134 11 9 96 Tim Smith L LF 25 .268 .318 .378 114 418 46 112 20 1 8 50 26 77 16 6 87 Johnny Giavotella R 2B 23 .266 .326 .375 154 605 89 161 31 7 7 58 52 81 14 8 89 Brayan Pena B C 29 .268 .315 .387 77 235 23 63 14 1 4 29 15 28 3 2 89 Josh Fields R 3B 28 .251 .315 .391 78 271 35 68 12 1 8 33 25 79 4 3 90 Mitch Maier L CF 29 .261 .323 .362 127 417 50 109 19 4 5 42 38 74 7 3 85 Clint Robinson L 1B 26 .250 .300 .397 134 504 58 126 29 3 13 59 34 109 3 3 86 David Lough L LF 25 .257 .305 .387 143 553 69 142 23 8 11 55 31 91 13 8 85 Yuniesky BetancourR SS 29 .266 .292 .392 152 549 60 146 31 4 10 64 21 50 3 3 83 Scott Thorman L 1B 29 .239 .286 .403 115 427 48 102 23 1 15 53 25 81 5 3 84 Jordan Parraz R RF 26 .248 .321 .360 119 444 54 110 25 2 7 47 36 91 10 8 84 Ed Lucas R SS 29 .240 .313 .354 101 362 43 87 16 2 7 37 36 84 8 3 80 Salvador Perez R C 21 .265 .288 .375 132 491 40 130 26 2 8 59 18 59 1 1 77 Gregor Blanco L CF 27 .245 .333 .320 134 428 59 105 16 5 2 30 56 95 16 6 78 Luke May R C 26 .235 .290 .372 106 387 43 91 19 2 10 42 27 104 4 2 77 Joaquin Arias R 2B 26 .256 .282 .333 120 414 51 106 15 4 3 38 14 55 13 3 66 Jeff Bianchi R SS 24 .244 .278 .357 115 446 57 109 25 2 7 51 21 117 12 5 70 Jarrod Dyson L CF 26 .237 .289 .310 94 358 53 85 15 4 1 28 25 79 31 9 62 Paulo Orlando R RF 25 .245 .285 .346 135 503 64 123 21 6 6 43 18 115 20 10 69 Derrick Robinson B CF 23 .248 .291 .323 152 625 79 155 25 8 2 49 37 114 51 22 66 Jason Kendall R C 37 .245 .316 .305 118 420 37 103 20 1 1 36 36 45 9 4 69 Lance Zawadzki B SS 26 .222 .285 .335 120 454 60 101 19 4 8 44 38 121 11 3 67 Manuel Pina R C 24 .238 .282 .340 104 382 38 91 19 1 6 39 20 65 1 0 67 Cody Clark R C 29 .229 .277 .349 63 192 20 44 9 1 4 18 11 35 1 1 68 Marc Maddox R 2B 27 .228 .289 .293 105 386 51 88 17 1 2 31 28 70 7 5 58 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Billy Butler AV/106 Kila Ka’aihue AV/98 Mike Aviles AV/113 AV /113 AV/114 Wilson Betemit AV/117 PO/131 FR/149 PO/106 Alex Gordon AV/130 AV/116 AV/165 Eric Hosmer AV/134 Chris Getz AV/78 AV/123 PO/125 AV/143 Mike Moustakas AV/131 PO/128 William Myers AV Tim Smith AV/141 AV/141 Johnny Giavotella AV/177 Brayan Pena AV FR/112 AV/112 AV/112 Josh Fields AV/108 FR/149 Mitch Maier VG/142 AV/76 VG/142 Clint Robinson AV/199 David Lough VG/112 AV/165 VG/160 Yuniesky Betancourt PO/106 Scott Thorman AV/111 PO/106 AV/172 Jordan Parraz PO/144 VG/148 Ed Lucas AV/110 FR/138 VG/112 PO/112 VG/169 VG/160 Salvador Perez VG Gregor Blanco VG/141 AV/93 VG/141 Luke May FR Joaquin Arias AV/122 AV/151 126/ Jeff Bianchi AV/78 FR/108 Jarrod Dyson VG/118 VG/170 VG/118 Paulo Orlando VG/149 AV/229 VG/207 Derrick Robinson VG/110 VG/200 Jason Kendall AV Lance Zawadzki AV/145 AV/145 AV/177 Manuel Pina VG Cody Clark FR Marc Maddox AV/91 AV/115 AV/122 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Zack Greinke R 27 3.28 16 8 33 33 222.0 206 81 17 52 211 129 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Mike Montgomery L 21 4.65 5 6 19 19 89.0 94 46 7 45 59 91 Gil Meche R 32 4.67 6 7 24 20 117.7 121 61 13 54 93 91 Luke Hochevar R 27 4.67 9 10 25 25 146.3 156 76 16 48 104 91 Jorge Campillo R 32 4.73 4 4 20 14 85.7 97 45 10 24 52 90 Bruce Chen L 34 4.77 6 7 25 17 105.7 109 56 14 43 75 89 Kyle Davies R 27 4.80 10 12 33 33 183.7 196 98 20 79 128 88 John Lamb L 20 4.80 8 10 29 29 138.7 152 74 11 68 96 88 Buddy Baumann L 23 4.82 3 3 33 15 93.3 101 50 8 49 66 88 Vin Mazzaro R 24 4.99 8 10 29 26 155.0 173 86 20 63 102 85 Danny Duffy L 22 5.08 4 5 16 16 78.0 86 44 9 34 54 83 Bryan Bullington R 30 5.18 5 7 30 15 106.0 124 61 13 39 66 82 Sean O’Sullivan R 23 5.20 6 8 23 19 105.7 120 61 15 35 59 82 Brian Bannister R 30 5.22 8 12 28 28 153.3 175 89 22 49 96 81 Christopher Dwyer L 23 5.36 5 8 20 20 95.7 109 57 9 57 69 79 Kevin Pucetas R 26 5.65 5 9 27 27 137.0 174 86 15 56 71 75 Anthony Lerew R 28 5.93 5 10 25 23 121.3 153 80 16 58 59 71 Edgar Osuna L 23 5.95 5 9 25 24 127.0 160 84 22 39 64 71 Gaby Hernandez R 25 6.12 6 12 28 24 136.7 161 93 27 59 80 69 Philip Humber R 28 6.16 5 10 31 22 130.0 167 89 23 48 70 69 Mario Santiago R 26 6.29 5 11 23 22 108.7 151 76 14 40 45 67 Will Smith L 21 6.37 5 12 25 25 137.0 176 97 25 51 72 67 Everett Teaford L 27 6.41 5 12 28 20 112.3 141 80 21 52 66 66 Eduardo Paulino R 25 6.58 4 10 26 21 108.0 140 79 17 60 52 64 Aaron Crow R 24 6.75 5 15 30 30 157.3 207 118 26 85 90 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joakim Soria R 27 2.67 3 1 62 0 64.0 52 19 5 18 74 159 Rob Tejeda R 29 3.66 4 3 53 0 59.0 49 24 5 31 64 116 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Louis Coleman R 25 3.97 6 5 44 0 88.3 82 39 9 34 77 107 Tim Collins L 21 3.99 5 4 56 0 70.0 62 31 7 40 76 106 Juan Cruz R 32 4.12 2 2 39 0 39.3 35 18 4 22 41 103 Dusty Hughes L 28 4.62 2 3 61 0 62.3 66 32 6 30 43 92 Henry Barrera L 25 4.66 1 1 22 0 29.0 30 15 3 15 22 91 Patrick Keating R 24 4.70 2 2 42 0 67.0 65 35 8 39 65 90 Blaine Hardy L 24 4.70 4 5 40 6 88.0 95 46 9 35 53 90 Jesse Chavez R 27 4.79 4 5 64 0 71.3 75 38 10 27 55 88 Kanekoa Texeira R 25 4.88 2 3 49 0 66.3 73 36 6 31 40 87 Greg Holland R 25 4.92 3 4 44 0 64.0 66 35 7 38 51 86 Blake Wood R 25 4.97 3 4 58 0 58.0 64 32 6 26 36 85 John Parrish L 33 4.99 3 4 27 6 52.3 57 29 5 28 37 85 Matt Herges R 41 5.32 4 7 48 2 69.3 83 41 8 29 38 80 Josh Rupe R 28 5.42 3 5 45 4 79.7 94 48 8 42 47 78 Victor Marte R 30 5.43 3 5 48 0 69.7 79 42 8 37 44 78 Roman Colon R 31 5.44 2 4 28 2 49.7 59 30 6 18 27 78 Barry Bowden R 26 5.54 3 5 45 0 52.0 58 32 7 31 35 77 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Billy Butler .290 .357 .439 2429 9031 1096 2619 589 16 242 1194 945 1212 1 114 Jason Kendall .284 .361 .371 2287 8348 1091 2371 428 36 76 805 779 761 204 93 Yuniesky Betancour .265 .290 .385 1569 5630 614 1494 306 40 96 617 202 502 38 80 Mike Aviles .284 .313 .404 967 3806 517 1082 177 32 71 364 157 455 67 92 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Zack Greinke 203 147 1 3.61 517 475 3149 3064 1264 288 773 2847 119 Gil Meche 104 107 0 4.59 336 311 1823 1856 929 223 784 1353 96 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Billy Butler 1B 23% 39% 20% 14% 3% Paul Konerko Sean Casey Mike Sweeney Kila Ka’aihue 1B 4% 18% 22% 34% 23% Graham Koonce Damon Minor J.T. Snow Mike Aviles 2B 17% 19% 21% 24% 19% Carlos Garcia Joseph Thurston Julian Javier Wilson Betemit 3B 7% 21% 28% 26% 19% Wes Helms Mike Blowers Greg Norton Alex Gordon LF 4% 18% 20% 26% 32% Bob Skube Mark Gillaspie Ryan Langerhans Eric Hosmer 1B 3% 10% 13% 31% 43% Sid Bream Mike Brown Daryl Sconiers Chris Getz 2B 15% 17% 21% 25% 22% Mike Gates Lenny Harris Mitch Simons Mike Moustakas 3B 4% 12% 20% 27% 37% Howard Battle Fernando Tatis Larry Parrish William Myers C 11% 26% 24% 24% 14% George Kottaras Tyler Flowers Jeff Mathis Tim Smith LF 2% 5% 6% 14% 72% Andre Ethier Kevin Coughlin Rowland Office Johnny Giavotella 2B 7% 9% 15% 27% 44% Luis Rivas Orlando Hudson William Suero Brayan Pena C 5% 19% 23% 30% 23% Sandy Alomar David Lindstrom Edwin Bellorin Josh Fields 3B 2% 8% 15% 26% 48% Fran MullinsYurendell de Caster Mendy Lopez Mitch Maier CF 2% 6% 19% 34% 38% Terry Bogener Cory Sullivan Mike Kingery Clint Robinson 1B 0% 1% 4% 19% 76% Garrett Jones Brant ColamarinoGuillermo Velasquez David Lough LF 1% 3% 4% 11% 82% Brian Kowitz Bubba Crosby Steve Gill Yuniesky BetancourSS 2% 8% 22% 33% 35% Pat Meares Gary DiSarcina Deivi Cruz Scott Thorman 1B 0% 1% 3% 14% 81% Mike Bell Chris Widger George Canale Jordan Parraz RF 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Dave Hollins Luis Montanez Alvin Moore Ed Lucas SS 4% 7% 20% 31% 38% Nick Green George Strickland Casey Benjamin Salvador Perez C 2% 7% 13% 29% 48% Luis Oliveros Bobby Wilson Manuel Pina Gregor Blanco CF 1% 2% 11% 30% 55% Curtis Goodwin Mark Gilbert Dave Brundage Luke May C 1% 5% 12% 31% 51% Alvin Colina Emerson Frostad Ryan Budde Joaquin Arias 2B 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Argenis Reyes Pete Orr Mark Grudzielanek Jeff Bianchi SS 1% 2% 9% 23% 65% Rafael Ramirez Bill Hall Ed Brinkman Jarrod Dyson CF 0% 1% 4% 14% 81% Scott Bullett Chuck Carr Herm Winningham Paulo Orlando RF 0% 0% 0% 2% 98% Rusty Tillman Darwin Pennye Scott Bullett Derrick Robinson CF 0% 1% 5% 13% 81% Scott Bullett Chuck Carr Tyrone Pendergrass Jason Kendall C 1% 4% 6% 19% 70% Brad Ausmus Tony Pena Luke Sewell Lance Zawadzki SS 1% 2% 7% 18% 71% Julius McDougal Giomar Guevara Pedro Sanchez Manuel Pina C 1% 3% 5% 17% 75% Carlos Corporan Jeff Winchester Wyatt Toregas Cody Clark C 2% 3% 4% 14% 78% Jason Brown Mike Ryan Brandon Marsters Marc Maddox 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Keith Johns Zach Borowiak John Tamargo Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Joakim Soria RP 87% 13% 1% Eric Gagne Bruce Sutter Tom Niedenfuer Zack Greinke SP 89% 11% 0% Jose Rijo Bert Blyleven Javier Vazquez Rob Tejeda RP 42% 45% 13% Ryne Duren Juan Cruz Jim Kern Louis Coleman RP 22% 57% 22% Danys Baez Fernando Cabrera Bert Roberge Tim Collins RP 21% 51% 27% John Rocker Chuck McElroy Dennys Reyes Juan Cruz RP 18% 44% 38% Ryne Duren Dwayne Henry Joe Boever Dusty Hughes RP 7% 36% 57% Matt Dunbar Dan Ricabal Randy Choate Mike Montgomery SP 17% 47% 36% Trevor Wilson Bill Krueger Tim Birtsas Henry Barrera RP 12% 37% 51% Carlos Vasquez Scott Wiggins Bryan Duquette Gil Meche SP 10% 48% 42% Chan Ho Park Charlie Puleo Jason Bere Luke Hochevar SP 9% 53% 39% Todd Stottlemyre Richard Dotson Bryan Rekar Patrick Keating RP 6% 40% 53% Eric Plunk Eric Cammack Jeff Zaske Blaine Hardy RP 4% 34% 62% Pat Clements Norm Montoya Joe Crawford Jorge Campillo SP 15% 39% 46% Joe Roa Doug Bird Dave Eiland Bruce Chen SP 12% 43% 44% John Curtis Jim Deshaies Rigo Beltran Jesse Chavez RP 2% 32% 66% Dan Wheeler Jim Mann Keith Atherton Kyle Davies SP 5% 50% 45% Frank Seminara Freddie Toliver Chad Hartvigson John Lamb SP 6% 51% 42% Matt Young David West Trevor Wilson Buddy Baumann SP 2% 31% 67% Bryan Clark Brian Snyder Curt Simmons Kanekoa Texeira RP 4% 29% 67% Casey Daigle Dave Smith Julio DePaula Greg Holland RP 4% 26% 71% Bob Gibson Mike Shade Brian Bowles Blake Wood RP 3% 28% 69% Jim Mecir Aaron Small Greg Booker John Parrish RP 6% 33% 61% Greg Cadaret Rigo Beltran C.J. Nitkowski Vin Mazzaro SP 3% 41% 56% Rich Loiselle Jose Guzman Bronson Arroyo Danny Duffy SP 6% 33% 61% Heath Murray Chris Pollack Paul Boris Bryan Bullington SP 0% 14% 86% Storm Davis Mike Harkey Peter Munro Sean O’Sullivan SP 2% 28% 70% Ryan Hawblitzel J.D. Smart Keith Atherton Brian Bannister SP 1% 27% 72% Brett Tomko Oil Can Boyd Scott Elarton Matt Herges RP 5% 21% 74% Boom-Boom Beck Jose Mesa Bob Smith Christopher Dwyer SP 2% 24% 74% Luis Martinez Matt Miller Harold Allen Josh Rupe RP 0% 11% 89% Mike Bumstead Jose Segura Victor Moreno Victor Marte RP 1% 11% 88% James Warden Jake Robbins Jim Dougherty Roman Colon RP 2% 17% 81% Danny Graves Carl Willis Dickie Noles Barry Bowden RP 1% 11% 88% Mike James Mike Grzanich Jailen Peguero Kevin Pucetas SP 0% 11% 89% Marcus Jones Mickey Callaway John Snyder Anthony Lerew SP 0% 6% 94% Ben Fritz Kip Bouknight Chris Beasley Edgar Osuna SP 0% 5% 95% Heath Phillips Mike Ramsey Evan MacLane Gaby Hernandez SP 0% 3% 97% Jim Blueberg Steve Olsen Joe Ganote Philip Humber SP 0% 2% 98% Tim McClaskey Dave Ford Mark DiFelice Mario Santiago SP 0% 2% 97% Doug Waechter Nate Cornejo Bill King Will Smith SP 0% 1% 99% Heath Phillips Mike Prochaska Nate Teut Everett Teaford SP 0% 1% 99% Denis Boucher Buddy Groom Mike Prochaska Eduardo Paulino SP 0% 1% 99% Larry McWilliams Travis Anderson Jonah Bayliss Aaron Crow SP 0% 0% 100% Greg Atencio Jared Jensen Travis Anderson Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Billy Butler 55% 43% 17% 43% 0% 5% 17% 0% Kila Ka’aihue 1% 21% 3% 0% 0% 7% 3% 0% Mike Aviles 34% 2% 2% 0% 4% 0% 1% 1% Wilson Betemit 6% 6% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Alex Gordon 1% 12% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% Eric Hosmer 5% 2% 5% 15% 12% 3% 1% 2% Chris Getz 19% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Mike Moustakas 4% 0% 7% 32% 0% 16% 1% 0% William Myers 2% 8% 1% 33% 3% 1% 1% 5% Tim Smith 9% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 7% Johnny Giavotella 6% 3% 1% 6% 21% 1% 1% 4% Brayan Pena 15% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Fields 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mitch Maier 6% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Clint Robinson 1% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% David Lough 2% 0% 1% 0% 30% 1% 0% 2% Yuniesky Betancour 6% 0% 0% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% Scott Thorman 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Jordan Parraz 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Ed Lucas 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Salvador Perez 7% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gregor Blanco 1% 6% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 2% Luke May 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Joaquin Arias 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% Jeff Bianchi 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Jarrod Dyson 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 51% Paulo Orlando 1% 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 8% Derrick Robinson 1% 0% 0% 1% 30% 0% 0% 94% Jason Kendall 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Lance Zawadzki 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Manuel Pina 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cody Clark 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Marc Maddox 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Joakim Soria 82% 99% 96% 21% 83% Zack Greinke 49% 98% 72% 39% 95% Rob Tejeda 34% 78% 91% 0% 82% Louis Coleman 17% 69% 39% 1% 66% Tim Collins 16% 67% 92% 0% 74% Juan Cruz 18% 53% 81% 0% 58% Dusty Hughes 5% 36% 4% 0% 80% Mike Montgomery 3% 36% 2% 0% 91% Henry Barrera 12% 38% 15% 1% 75% Gil Meche 1% 25% 14% 0% 53% Luke Hochevar 1% 26% 3% 3% 58% Patrick Keating 4% 33% 72% 0% 50% Blaine Hardy 3% 28% 0% 1% 64% Jorge Campillo 5% 30% 2% 23% 56% Bruce Chen 2% 25% 6% 1% 39% Jesse Chavez 1% 23% 11% 2% 36% Kyle Davies 0% 20% 2% 0% 53% John Lamb 1% 20% 1% 0% 86% Buddy Baumann 1% 23% 4% 0% 77% Kanekoa Texeira 3% 27% 0% 0% 79% Greg Holland 3% 24% 18% 0% 66% Blake Wood 3% 24% 1% 0% 61% John Parrish 6% 26% 7% 0% 71% Vin Mazzaro 0% 13% 1% 0% 32% Danny Duffy 1% 14% 3% 0% 53% Bryan Bullington 0% 9% 0% 1% 48% Sean O'Sullivan 0% 10% 0% 4% 27% Brian Bannister 0% 6% 0% 4% 18% Matt Herges 4% 22% 1% 4% 59% Christopher Dwyer 0% 7% 4% 0% 75% Josh Rupe 0% 6% 0% 0% 72% Victor Marte 1% 9% 2% 0% 55% Roman Colon 2% 14% 0% 6% 55% Barry Bowden 0% 8% 3% 0% 46% Kevin Pucetas 0% 2% 0% 0% 59% Anthony Lerew 0% 1% 0% 0% 42% Edgar Osuna 0% 0% 0% 6% 8% Gaby Hernandez 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Philip Humber 0% 0% 0% 1% 10% Mario Santiago 0% 0% 0% 1% 41% Will Smith 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% Everett Teaford 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% Eduardo Paulino 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% Aaron Crow 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 25, 2010 at 05:00 PM | 24 comment(s)
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1. Boxkutter Posted: November 25, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3697274)Oh, and those Myers numbers seem almost too good for a kid who hasn't been above A-ball yet.
I thought the same thing...basically better/equal offensive projection than Moustakas, who dominated AA and performed admirably in AA. This makes me wonder what his projection would have been if only using his AA numbers, since i'm guessing it's the plate discipline issues in AAA that hurt him here... only a .277 BABIP, but a disastrous 3.4% BB rate.
Why was Gordon such a bust? Consensus?
Yeah, after looking back at his numbers, I figured 2009 hurt, but i didn't think it would too much, as when looking at players his age and level, the progress is more important than an oddball year within the numbers.
But actually...how come Myers has a projection after high-A, but Jaff Decker didn't get one for San Diego? He's only 10 months older than Myers, dominating A ball the year before, though didn't have the same dominating numbers for the full season or at High-A, but his 2nd half after recovering from his injury was massive...and gave him a pretty solid finishing line for the season.
I really want him to make the Royals this year, as I'd love to see him pitch.
I know the stats tell me Billy Butler is a pretty valuable player but for some reason I can't see him turning the corner. I just always think he's going to be a .300/.360/.440 guy which is nice to have, but I don't think he'll ever be the power hitter some think he might be. A very poor man's Edgar Martinez maybe.
My opinion is that he was rushed to the big leagues. He was god awful the first half of his rookie season and should have been in Omaha. But they stubbornly kept him up and he probably developed bad habits/hurt his confidence. He was decent the second half of 2007 (.264/.305/.472) and average to above average in 2008, and went on a tear in August and Sept before getting hurt. Then he was hurt most of 2009 and for whatever reason became persona non grata with most in the front office and was demoted in 2010. The rumor is that he is unwilling to take advice from coaches, which I'm sure is not good, but OTOH, I don't think his numbers are really that bad. If you take away the label of "#2 overall pick" he's a perfectly cromulent third baseman. The problem is, he was anointed as the next big thing and we passed up Ryan Zimmerman and Troy Tulowitski (and Evan Longoria the next season) to get him. So people tend to focus on what he's not rather than what he is - a perfectly average third baseman. I think he tends to get more "hard hit outs" than most, but I have no data to back that up. I've never seen a guy hit so many warning track fly outs.
They should stick him at third and leave him alone for a season, but they're sticking him in the outfield, and my guess is they trade him by July.
And I bet that if, back when they were 20-21, you told folks that Betancourt would project to be about as good a hitter as Scott Thorman and Josh Fields, folks would have gotten pretty excited.
Slight drop-off in the quality of the starters after Greinke. :-)
Awesome...I was actually more curious as to if there was a reason that Myers got one, and not Decker. I would assume it's mostly just prospect status. No big deal, as neither are gonna have any impact (mostly likely) on the big league clubs.
You gonna just add Decker's to the Padres?
That's pretty much identical to Ryan Sweeney's projection (.287/.343/.389, 98 OPS+, VG/AV/VG), which would be pretty disappointing from DeJesus (116 OPS+ over the past three years).
In Hosmer's case, the system doesn't take into account the Lasik surgery after 2009. With Myers, we basically have one year of data, and he could go in any direction from here. The fact that you have a 20 YO and a 21 YO with OPS+ projections in the mid-90s *in the majors* is what would get my attention.
-- MWE
Lack of interest?
His curve was much less effective, which may have contributed somewhat.
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