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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Friday, December 31, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota TwinsThe 2010 Twins survived without Joe Nathan, but given that they’re losing most of their bullpen to free agency (Bill Smith acquired relievers last summer at a rate that would make Eddie wade blush), they really need to have him back as the team hasn’t really done much to replace the losses.
The team’s done some odd things lately - trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps will very likely come back to bite them and giving minor league free agent Eric Hacker a major-league contract seems rather silly - but the odd things aren’t really the type that are going to hurt the team. Nishioka, however, was an amazing signing ($5 million for the posting plus 3 years, $9 million). I think we’ve gotten to the point that teams are properly appreciating the first-tier of NPB players, but I think there’s still some inefficiency at evaluating the next tier of “good, non-star” players.
There are still concerns about depth in the upper minors, but at least the team’s brought in a few more minor league free agents than usual - players like Steve Holm and Jeff Bailey aren’t starters in the majors but any remote stretch, but it’s nice to have them around and it was something the Twins were really missing on a 2010 Rochester team that didn’t have anyone slug .450 (min. 1 AB).
The Twins should compete as usual, but I don’t think they’re a step ahead of the Tigers or White Sox right now.
Next up: Giants
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Justin Morneau L 1B 30 .289 .380 .528 117 436 67 126 28 2 24 78 66 77 0 0 142 Joe Mauer L C 28 .313 .397 .464 143 528 86 165 34 2 14 79 77 59 3 3 132 Jim Thome L DH 40 .248 .369 .511 110 327 53 81 15 1 23 64 62 108 0 0 134 Jason Kubel L RF 29 .266 .339 .460 142 493 64 131 27 3 21 83 55 103 1 1 113 Delmon Young R LF 25 .290 .327 .451 156 583 72 169 36 2 18 91 30 104 8 5 107 Michael Cuddyer R RF 32 .264 .333 .430 134 512 73 135 30 5 15 71 50 91 6 2 104 Denard Span L CF 27 .278 .354 .381 156 616 91 171 24 11 6 64 68 93 28 10 99 Tsuyoshi Nishioka B 2B 26 .281 .337 .403 156 601 96 169 26 13 7 49 48 77 38 17 99 Danny Valencia R 3B 26 .266 .310 .388 145 546 59 145 33 2 10 62 35 109 3 2 87 Ben Revere L CF 23 .281 .332 .338 131 509 60 143 14 6 1 36 33 57 39 17 82 Joe Benson R CF 23 .232 .311 .406 125 466 62 108 23 5 16 46 43 146 14 10 92 Jeff Bailey R 1B 32 .236 .324 .371 114 420 54 99 21 3 10 46 46 102 3 1 87 Alexi Casilla B SS 26 .260 .322 .345 122 385 50 100 13 4 4 37 35 55 16 6 80 Luke Hughes R 2B 26 .238 .296 .378 76 286 33 68 15 2 7 29 22 79 4 1 80 Ray Chang R 3B 27 .252 .320 .348 93 333 38 84 21 1 3 35 27 58 1 2 80 Brandon Roberts L CF 26 .257 .314 .329 93 350 44 90 12 2 3 29 22 63 13 4 74 Matt Tolbert B 2B 29 .251 .299 .352 98 315 37 79 13 5 3 28 22 53 9 4 75 Justin Huber R 1B 28 .235 .304 .358 104 302 30 71 13 0 8 36 25 70 1 1 78 Chris Parmelee L 1B 23 .242 .305 .354 152 567 59 137 28 3 10 63 52 128 2 3 78 Brock Peterson R 1B 27 .228 .297 .363 122 435 48 99 19 2 12 44 38 133 0 1 77 D’Angelo Jimenez B 3B 33 .231 .307 .350 90 260 24 60 12 2 5 31 30 45 2 2 77 Nick Punto B 3B 33 .239 .324 .306 104 314 37 75 14 2 1 26 40 59 11 4 71 Trevor Plouffe R SS 25 .239 .282 .375 143 536 61 128 29 4 12 54 30 112 5 6 76 Steve Holm R C 31 .234 .313 .341 76 214 26 50 12 1 3 25 22 45 1 2 77 Brian Dinkelman L LF 27 .238 .304 .335 134 517 57 123 28 2 6 42 42 100 7 4 72 Jason Repko R CF 30 .221 .293 .344 123 398 52 88 16 3 9 33 34 105 13 5 71 Rene Tosoni L DH 24 .230 .310 .348 87 313 34 72 13 3 6 34 28 92 4 5 77 Aaron Hicks B CF 21 .224 .315 .336 124 482 69 108 23 5 7 42 65 144 16 15 76 Chase Lambin B 3B 31 .219 .284 .349 124 430 42 94 20 3 10 43 34 130 4 3 70 Rene Rivera R C 27 .229 .270 .356 66 236 18 54 12 0 6 26 12 64 0 0 67 Dustin Martin L RF 27 .228 .285 .331 135 505 55 115 21 5 7 51 40 148 16 7 66 Matthew Brown R 3B 28 .214 .274 .360 99 378 39 81 22 3 9 39 29 110 3 3 69 Matt Macri R 2B 29 .223 .279 .357 105 359 38 80 20 2 8 32 26 96 3 5 70 Jacque Jones L LF 36 .232 .277 .321 82 280 27 65 14 1 3 25 16 64 3 1 61 Erik Lis L 1B 27 .216 .264 .338 128 477 39 103 23 1 11 51 28 143 1 1 61 Drew Butera R C 27 .220 .274 .324 82 259 22 57 13 1 4 23 16 51 0 1 61 Toby Gardenhire B 2B 28 .225 .276 .258 78 240 20 54 5 0 1 18 13 46 1 2 46 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Justin Morneau VG/53 Joe Mauer AV Jim Thome Jason Kubel Delmon Young PO/135 Michael Cuddyer FR/115 FR/114 PO/113 PO/77 Denard Span VG/111 AV/98 VG/118 Tsuyoshi Nishioka VG/100 AV/100 Danny Valencia AV/81 Ben Revere AV/159 AV/172 AV/159 Joe Benson VG/132 AV/190 AV/132 Jeff Bailey AV/127 FR/136 PO/122 Alexi Casilla AV/132 AV/113 VG/119 Luke Hughes PO/124 PO/182 AV/113 FR/113 Ray Chang FR/111 PO/92 FR/65 PO/104 Brandon Roberts VG/107 FR/146 Matt Tolbert FR/97 VG/115 PO/120 AV/106 FR/133 AV/106 Justin Huber AV/121 FR/122 FR/125 FR/125 Chris Parmelee FR/186 FR/181 Brock Peterson FR/153 FR/122 D’Angelo Jimenez FR/128 FR/111 FR/114 Nick Punto VG/89 VG/81 VG/102 Trevor Plouffe AV/139 AV/113 AV/129 Steve Holm AV Brian Dinkelman FR/125 PO/108 FR/131 AV/101 Jason Repko VG/62 AV/80 VG/62 Rene Tosoni FR/132 PO/171 FR/132 Aaron Hicks VG/108 AV/168 Chase Lambin AV/123 FR/116 FR/136 Rene Rivera VG FR/97 PO/122 Dustin Martin Matthew Brown AV/191 PO/163 AV/116 Matt Macri AV/129 VG/120 AV/162 FR/139 AV/123 AV/123 Jacque Jones AV/108 AV/128 AV/108 Erik Lis AV/199 FR/133 FR/133 Drew Butera VG Toby Gardenhire FR AV/129 VG/177 VG/136 AV/131 AV/114 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Francisco Liriano L 27 3.92 14 9 32 31 183.7 179 80 16 65 177 109 Scott Baker R 29 4.02 13 9 31 31 186.0 186 83 23 45 161 106 Kevin Slowey R 27 4.33 11 9 27 26 147.7 156 71 21 28 119 98 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Brian Duensing L 28 4.46 8 7 42 18 135.3 150 67 13 44 76 96 Carl Pavano R 35 4.47 11 10 26 26 165.0 182 82 22 31 103 95 Nick Blackburn R 29 4.88 10 11 30 29 175.3 205 95 24 41 86 87 Liam Hendriks R 22 4.96 7 9 26 25 136.0 157 75 16 41 85 86 Kyle Gibson R 23 4.97 8 10 27 27 145.0 164 80 15 55 86 86 Scott Diamond L 24 5.25 7 9 27 27 145.7 176 85 12 67 86 81 David Bromberg R 23 5.49 7 10 27 27 142.7 165 87 18 72 87 78 Jeff Manship R 26 5.60 7 10 30 24 138.3 177 86 16 48 76 76 Eric Hacker R 28 5.69 7 12 30 29 148.7 187 94 16 67 85 75 Glen Perkins L 28 5.85 6 10 29 25 135.3 175 88 20 44 72 73 Yoslan Herrera R 30 5.99 3 6 17 14 73.7 92 49 9 38 37 71 Carlos Gutierrez R 24 6.09 4 8 35 17 112.3 141 76 13 66 55 70 Anthony Swarzak R 25 6.22 6 12 25 25 127.3 167 88 20 51 61 68 Mike Maroth L 33 6.23 2 3 9 7 34.7 43 24 6 16 18 68 Charlie Zink R 31 6.39 4 8 16 15 76.0 95 54 9 54 28 67 Deolis Guerra R 22 6.78 5 13 26 25 128.7 173 97 24 57 63 63 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Joe Nathan R 36 3.00 2 1 47 0 45.0 36 15 4 15 52 142 Brian Fuentes L 35 3.42 4 2 55 0 50.0 42 19 5 21 54 124 Jon Rauch R 32 3.75 5 3 65 0 62.3 62 26 6 17 52 113 Jose Mijares L 26 3.89 2 1 53 0 44.0 42 19 5 16 38 110 Matt Capps R 27 3.90 5 4 67 0 67.0 68 29 7 18 55 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Alex Burnett R 23 4.46 3 3 56 0 68.7 71 34 6 31 50 96 Ron Mahay L 40 4.53 2 2 49 0 45.7 47 23 6 17 37 94 Pat Neshek R 30 4.57 3 3 41 0 41.3 41 21 5 19 34 93 Anthony Slama R 27 4.59 3 3 61 0 68.7 64 35 7 48 66 93 Randy Flores L 35 4.75 1 1 57 0 36.0 39 19 4 17 27 90 Kyle Waldrop R 25 4.88 4 5 59 0 86.7 103 47 7 30 41 87 Rob Delaney R 26 5.07 6 7 61 0 76.3 84 43 12 27 60 84 Jim Hoey R 28 5.16 3 4 47 0 52.3 53 30 4 40 45 83 Kane Holbrooks R 24 5.23 6 8 44 11 96.3 110 56 11 44 66 81 Billy Bullock R 23 5.30 3 4 48 0 54.3 58 32 6 38 48 80 Tim Lahey R 29 6.27 3 5 47 1 66.0 80 46 10 41 37 68 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Jim Thome .275 .401 .555 2607 8626 1634 2374 459 28 633 1748 1794 2601 19 146 Joe Mauer .305 .382 .442 2397 9001 1335 2747 529 38 208 1261 1148 909 77 121 Delmon Young .284 .322 .434 2056 7723 931 2195 459 26 216 1151 395 1361 118 101 Justin Morneau .279 .355 .489 1874 6995 994 1952 423 30 329 1219 841 1128 4 124 Denard Span .274 .348 .378 1671 6642 967 1817 254 102 78 691 715 909 233 96 Jason Kubel .262 .330 .446 1557 5350 672 1404 286 31 211 857 544 1034 17 106 Michael Cuddyer .264 .334 .433 1549 5655 817 1495 325 52 175 784 553 1042 61 103 Jacque Jones .277 .326 .448 1302 4594 632 1272 255 19 165 630 314 949 82 98 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Scott Baker 137 112 0 4.29 360 357 2128 2202 1014 282 521 1740 99 Francisco Liriano 150 114 1 4.01 381 351 2110 2031 940 198 765 2077 106 Carl Pavano 120 119 0 4.49 324 306 1899 2096 948 231 458 1211 96 Kevin Slowey 117 91 0 4.39 295 283 1608 1730 783 245 296 1279 96 Nick Blackburn 71 80 0 4.73 214 203 1244 1466 654 173 283 596 89 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Justin Morneau 1B 57% 27% 9% 5% 1% Don Mincher Mark Teixeira Adrian Gonzalez Joe Mauer C 82% 15% 2% 1% 0% Smoky Burgess Spud Davis Ted Simmons Jim Thome DH 44% 27% 13% 10% 5% Willie McCovey Norm Cash Jack Clark Jason Kubel RF 15% 30% 22% 19% 14% Matt Winters Larry Parrish Ryan Klesko Delmon Young LF 7% 24% 23% 24% 22% Carlos Lee Wil Cordero Mark Quinn Michael Cuddyer RF 7% 19% 18% 24% 31% Al Cowens Al Smith Juan Encarnacion Denard Span CF 18% 19% 29% 22% 11% Brett Butler Jacoby Ellsbury Kenny Lofton Tsuyoshi Nishioka 2B 25% 19% 19% 20% 17% Jose Reyes Ray Durham Jimmy Rollins Danny Valencia 3B 1% 5% 13% 27% 54% Casey McGehee Brook Jacoby Leo Cardenas Ben Revere CF 3% 6% 16% 28% 48% Jeremy Reed Michael Brantley Joe Orsulak Joe Benson CF 6% 11% 21% 28% 34% Gerald Williams Jeromy Burnitz Sammy Sosa Jeff Bailey 1B 1% 3% 5% 23% 67% Pedro Swann Brian Lesher David McCarty Alexi Casilla SS 4% 11% 26% 30% 29% Carlos Mendoza Harold Reynolds Kevin Stocker Luke Hughes 2B 3% 4% 9% 23% 61% Nick Green Matt Macri Archi Cianfrocco Ray Chang 3B 0% 1% 5% 17% 76% Patrick Sellers Casey McGehee Jason Alfaro Brandon Roberts CF 1% 2% 7% 22% 68% Clay Timpner Alex Negron Lonnie Maclin Matt Tolbert 2B 2% 2% 4% 13% 79% Steve Hecht Joe Inglett Kevin Davis Justin Huber 1B 0% 0% 1% 8% 91% Ryan Jones Alberto Concepcion Dustin Brisson Chris Parmelee 1B 0% 0% 1% 9% 89% Michael Paulk Travis Hinton Mike Hocutt Brock Peterson 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% Richard Johnson Juan Richardson Paul Hollins D’Angelo Jimenez 3B 1% 2% 4% 11% 81% Dave McKay Geoff Blum Reed Secrist Nick Punto 3B 0% 2% 4% 10% 84% Dan Rohn Kevin Stocker Ivan DeJesus Trevor Plouffe SS 2% 3% 11% 25% 59% Andrew Pinckney Oscar Salazar Clay Bellinger Steve Holm C 1% 5% 9% 23% 62% Chad Moeller Paul Hoover Henry Blanco Brian Dinkelman LF 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Evan Pratte Ron Witmeyer Chip Childress Jason Repko CF 0% 2% 6% 16% 76% Kevin Koslofski Juan Camilo Doug Clark Rene Tosoni DH 1% 1% 1% 5% 91% Shawn Jeter Tom Lombarski Tonys Gutierrez Aaron Hicks CF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Ntema Ndungidi Kevin Dean Tony Walker Chase Lambin 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Bryn Kosco Trace Coquillette Sean Mcnally Rene Rivera C 0% 1% 4% 16% 79% Alvin Colina Tommy Duenas Joe Ayrault Dustin Martin RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Jalal Leach Alexis Gomez Tommy Murphy Matthew Brown 3B 0% 1% 3% 8% 87% Brandon Inge Bryn Kosco Bob Bafia Matt Macri 2B 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Seth Bynum Tim Hulett Trace Coquillette Jacque Jones LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Felipe Zayas Joe Orsulak Dann Howitt Erik Lis 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Tyler Von Schell Steve Carver Carlos Yedo Drew Butera C 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Mike Ryan Tom Nieto Matt Garrick Toby Gardenhire 2B 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Rex Rundgren Jerome Alviso Luke Sable Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Joe Nathan RP 58% 29% 13% Tom Gordon Tom Henke Jay Howell Brian Fuentes RP 45% 44% 12% John Hiller Mike Remlinger Tippy Martinez Jon Rauch RP 33% 53% 14% Gene Garber Rod Beck Donnie Moore Jose Mijares RP 31% 50% 19% Mike Stanton Tom Gorman Steve Wilson Matt Capps RP 28% 54% 18% Steve Reed Larry Andersen Mike Burns Francisco Liriano SP 50% 44% 6% Erik Bedard Pete Schourek Floyd Bannister Scott Baker SP 39% 53% 8% Javier Vazquez Dennis Leonard Dennis Eckersley Kevin Slowey SP 26% 57% 16% Jose Lima Dennis Eckersley Oil Can Boyd Brian Duensing SP 5% 46% 49% John Barfield J.D. Arteaga Eric Knott Alex Burnett RP 10% 46% 44% Tim Drummond Todd Frohwirth Gary Majewski Carl Pavano SP 21% 51% 27% Paul Byrd Bill Gullickson Scott Sanderson Ron Mahay RP 18% 34% 49% Jeff Fassero Mike Stanton Buddy Groom Pat Neshek RP 13% 40% 47% Marino Salas Matt Karchner Ricky Bottalico Anthony Slama RP 7% 41% 52% Jack Meyer Calvin Jones Bart Miadich Randy Flores RP 13% 38% 49% Vic Darensbourg Dave Righetti Mike Mohler Nick Blackburn SP 7% 48% 45% Carlos Silva Josh Towers Glenn Abbott Kyle Waldrop RP 2% 32% 66% Pedro Borbon John Doherty Chad Kimsey Liam Hendriks SP 4% 44% 53% Clay Parker Elizardo Ramirez Dave Telgheder Kyle Gibson SP 4% 47% 49% Josh Fogg Brent Gaff Shawn Hill Rob Delaney RP 1% 26% 73% Dan Giese Ron Blazier Steve Bray Jim Hoey RP 2% 25% 73% Justin Kaye Mike MacDougal Roy Corcoran Kane Holbrooks RP 0% 18% 81% Yoel Hernandez Jim Clancy Chris Mabeus Scott Diamond SP 1% 27% 72% Jake Chapman Mike Miller Derek Thompson Billy Bullock RP 1% 19% 80% Franklyn German Justin Kaye Tom Thurberg David Bromberg SP 0% 17% 83% Steve Bourgeois Gary Glover Doug Brocail Jeff Manship SP 0% 14% 85% Nate Cornejo Doug Waechter Bill King Eric Hacker SP 0% 10% 90% John Snyder Ryan Drese Nelson Figueroa Glen Perkins SP 0% 7% 93% Brian Shouse Dave Gassner Scott Downs Yoslan Herrera SP 0% 8% 91% Dennis Tankersley Ryan Jensen David Manning Carlos Gutierrez SP 0% 1% 99% Julien Tucker Willis Roberts Julian Leyva Anthony Swarzak SP 0% 2% 98% Kyle Middleton Cameron Reimers Greg Biercevicz Mike Maroth SP 3% 12% 85% Chris Michalak Robert Lee Andrew Lorraine Tim Lahey RP 0% 2% 98% Jim Dedrick David Walters Marty McLeary Charlie Zink SP 0% 4% 96% Jamey Wright Dick Fowler Alan Benes Deolis Guerra SP 0% 0% 100% Rick Bauer Ty Hartshorn Jim Blueberg Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Justin Morneau 35% 56% 66% 1% 2% 18% 51% 0% Joe Mauer 67% 77% 18% 9% 0% 2% 30% 0% Jim Thome 5% 41% 52% 0% 0% 17% 39% 0% Jason Kubel 8% 9% 18% 1% 1% 10% 6% 0% Delmon Young 32% 2% 10% 16% 1% 4% 2% 1% Michael Cuddyer 7% 7% 5% 2% 6% 1% 2% 0% Denard Span 18% 20% 1% 0% 56% 0% 1% 40% Tsuyoshi Nishioka 22% 8% 3% 2% 77% 1% 2% 75% Danny Valencia 6% 1% 1% 7% 1% 1% 0% 0% Ben Revere 22% 7% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 77% Joe Benson 0% 1% 2% 0% 11% 2% 0% 1% Jeff Bailey 3% 6% 2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% Alexi Casilla 6% 4% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 4% Luke Hughes 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ray Chang 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Roberts 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Matt Tolbert 4% 1% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% Justin Huber 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Parmelee 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% Brock Peterson 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% D’Angelo Jimenez 2% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Nick Punto 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Trevor Plouffe 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% Steve Holm 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Dinkelman 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jason Repko 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Rene Tosoni 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Aaron Hicks 0% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 3% Chase Lambin 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Rene Rivera 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Dustin Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 3% Matthew Brown 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Matt Macri 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jacque Jones 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Erik Lis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Drew Butera 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Toby Gardenhire 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Joe Nathan 68% 85% 97% 10% 71% Brian Fuentes 45% 83% 93% 2% 81% Jon Rauch 26% 76% 28% 26% 78% Jose Mijares 31% 75% 40% 9% 66% Matt Capps 22% 71% 24% 27% 63% Francisco Liriano 15% 79% 72% 3% 84% Scott Baker 8% 69% 39% 33% 42% Kevin Slowey 5% 54% 16% 83% 21% Brian Duensing 4% 40% 1% 8% 68% Alex Burnett 7% 42% 6% 0% 81% Carl Pavano 6% 41% 2% 82% 33% Ron Mahay 13% 44% 22% 7% 47% Pat Neshek 13% 44% 26% 1% 68% Anthony Slama 5% 35% 71% 0% 69% Randy Flores 13% 42% 14% 1% 66% Nick Blackburn 1% 21% 1% 47% 31% Kyle Waldrop 2% 24% 0% 4% 86% Liam Hendriks 0% 14% 0% 7% 50% Kyle Gibson 0% 17% 0% 0% 63% Rob Delaney 1% 18% 13% 3% 16% Jim Hoey 1% 16% 36% 0% 71% Kane Holbrooks 0% 12% 1% 0% 58% Scott Diamond 0% 6% 1% 0% 89% Billy Bullock 1% 11% 43% 0% 64% David Bromberg 0% 3% 0% 0% 43% Jeff Manship 0% 3% 0% 1% 48% Eric Hacker 0% 1% 0% 0% 63% Glen Perkins 0% 1% 0% 3% 18% Yoslan Herrera 0% 2% 0% 1% 46% Carlos Gutierrez 0% 0% 0% 0% 60% Anthony Swarzak 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% Mike Maroth 1% 7% 2% 4% 32% Tim Lahey 0% 2% 1% 0% 28% Charlie Zink 0% 1% 0% 0% 45% Deolis Guerra 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 31, 2010 at 04:41 PM | 33 comment(s)
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1. WillYoung Posted: December 31, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3720865)Oh, and I would assume Kubel's LF/RF ratings would be Pr just like most of the Twins OF.
Small market my ##.
I was hoping this was Nick Punto, or maybe Gardenhire's kid. Unfortunately (SPOILERS!) it's the backup catcher.
Not much else to say. Nice comps for Span, nicer than expected comps for Baker (as in those are pretty big names and all really good at various points in their career).
And the Twins have a higher payroll than the Dodgers? The Dodgers should be embarrassed, new stadium revenue or not.
Joe Mauer .305 .382 .442 2397 9001 1335 2747 529 38 208 1261 1148 909 77 121
Does that make the HoF? The 121 OPS+ puts him just behind Posada (who has far fewer PA) and just ahead of Fisk and Simmons (who both have about 800 more PA). The 300 BA will help a lot, 2nd to Piazza among non-30s Cs and, by the time Mauer retires, presumably so will the 382 OBP, slightly better than Piazza and Posada. 3 GG should cement the defensive rep barring some sea change in fancy catcher defensive stats (and attitudes towards them). And of course an MVP.
The RBI total isn't particularly impressive, even for a C but I believe that would be a record for runs scored by a C (perhaps depending on how one defines "C"). Current record seems to be Fisk 1276 (using his career total).
The remaining question then is whether he can stay healthy behind the plate. He's got 700 games catching right now, a rather Torre-esque total (837 starts) ... and Torre had a 128 OPS+ and an MVP and 9 AS games. Of course Torre and Simmons might well belong in the HoF.
I'm just surprised the decision (using HoF voting history, not Primer standards) is even this close.
I think if Mauer doesn't get in with that line, I think he has a case for justifiable homicide.
That market was always a sleeping giant. Pretty decent sized metro area, with a good fanbase. They now have their two biggest impediments out of the way - shitty stadium and shitty owner. They will make the transition from small/mid-sized market to "pretty big market" the way Cleveland and Seattle did in the 90s and how Philly and Detroit did in the 00s.
On Nishioka: you've got him about where I do offensively, based on stats. Having said that, I'll take the under - I don't think he's a fast as this suggests and is otherwise slappy enough that pitchers will challenge him. As for his D - man, it shouldn't be easier to get data on guys from Cuba than Japan, huh? Naively, those are the same range values I'd give him, but I think he'll be a bit error prone. That comment is strictly based on reading and limited observation, not anything statistical.
One more not on him - here's a tweet from CJ Nitkowski:
I liked this deal for Twins, but the error bars are big enough that he could easily be right (particularly when you add the posting fee into the equation).
---
Unrelated, another CJ tweet taught me that, in Japan, "Jersey Shore" is called "Macaroni Rascals". So, there's that.
Jayson Werth too.
Hopefully for them, not the way Cleveland did.
Capps's xFIP, by year:
2006: 3.97
2007: 4.31
2008: 3.95
2009: 4.37
2010: 3.45
2011 ZiPS: 3.90
"Luck" giveth, and "luck" taketh away...
Also Orlando Hudson
Or the way Seattle did.
Does Simmons get the same treatment?
JM: .305/.382/.442, 121 OPS+, 9000 PA
TS: 285/348/437, 117 OPS+, 9700 PA, 1700 starts at C
Mauer's currently 1,000 starts behind at C which is a lot, especially since he's averaged about 110 per season. If you take a look at the bulk of Simmons' career (dropping the pitiful end and the age 18-20 short stints) you get 8874 PA with a line of 288/350/445, 121 OPS+ in 8874 PA from ages 21-35.
Mauer obviously comes up nicely in this comp on OBP and wins the career OPS+ battle so he's definitely ahead. Does Simmons at least get a reduction in charge to manslaughter?
I'm somewhat nitpicking since you said "that line". Add in Mauer's 300 BA, MVP, GGs and presumably many AS games to come and, from most voters' perspective, he looks not at all like Simmons.
But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive. It's a little better than Simmons (not elected) and Fisk (who probably makes it 1st ballot in any other election), it's worse than Posada (in more PA), it's worse than Berra, it's much worse than Bench. It's oddly equal to Tettleton, much worse than Tenace (not much of a C). :-) If he were to move from C in another 2-3 years, he'd be below Torre.
Like I hinted, the easiest answer to this is that Simmons for sure and Torre probably belong in the HoF. Heck, Porter and Freehan have decent cases and Pudge II will go in of course (or be blackballed).
Part of the "problem" is that, from a hitting perspective, there's not much to distinguish the non-Piazza catchers. It's Gary Carter at 115 up to Cochrane at 128 in OPS+ terms with Simmons, Posada and a few short career guys in-between. Durability (as a C) and defense seem to carry the day in the last 30 years.
Anyway, I remain surprised at how "close" it is. It's not like he projects as the #2 hitting C behind Piazza or anything. Well, not in OPS+ terms probably does in WAR batting. He's got one full-time C behind him in OPS+ who wasn't elected and a part-time C pretty well ahead of him who wasn't elected.
ZiPS also seems surprisingly bearish on Liriano. I guess his 2008 and 2009 were nothing special, and he has a history of underperforming his xFIP, but I would take the over on a 3.92/109 ERA/ERA+ (not that my opinion really means anything next to that of the finely honed system). So would others, judging by the fan projections on Fangraphs, although what we envision for him next year is skewed by his monster performance FIP-wise this year - er, last year.
Yes, but can they beat the Tigers and/or White Sox in one-game playoffs?
Berra and Bench are within 1 pt. (125 and 126 OPS+ respectively). That 1 pt. makes Mauer much worse than Bench?
Note his current OPS+ is 136. I'll easily take the over on 121 for his career; doing a quick and dirty examination of HoF catchers shows that most don't suffer that kind of steep dropoff (if they do, they are usually forced to retire before a string of poor seasons drops their peak numbers back down that far). Gary Carter and Piazza did (for his last 3 seasons), but still -15 points is pretty drastic. Of course Mauer is no HoFer (yet), and could undergo the kind of sudden and steep dropoffs around age 30 that we've seen from the likes of Tony Pena or Rich Gedman (Pena's D let him stay in the league, Gedman's didn't).
There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.
Well, duh. Yogi said it best: "sometimes it's the things that don't matter that make all the difference."*
Not sure what I was thinking. Maybe the language side of my brain said OPS+ but the numbers side was thinking of WAR? Maybe I was thinking Bench caught a lot more than Berra? (except he didn't, I thought Berra spent more time in the OF than that.) Maybe I was just overstating my case?
The important thing is we'll never know
* as far as I know, Yogi never said this.
Note his current OPS+ is 136.
That's sort of what I was getting at. I was expecting "oh man, Mauer is just a stud!" Instead I got something sensible. I'm the official Voice of Reason (tm) on career projections around here and I don't like ZiPS crowding my turf!
There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.
Interesting point. Years ago when Kendall was traded to Oakland, I took a look at that (sorta). Those would have been older Cs (Kendall was 31) and I recall that, for most Cs, the offensive decline didn't seem so severe. Fairly standard looking age-based decline from 31 to 33 (the years remaining on Kendall's contract) but I was eyeballing it more than anything. A lot fell off the table durability-wise and a number did both. Kendall took the less familiar path, remaining durable and falling off a cliff offensively (108 OPS+ through age 30, 102 from 28-30 to 77 from 31-33).
Piazza
24-27: 158 OPS+
28-30: 157 OPS+
31-33: 147 OPS+
34-37: 113 OPS+
Ouch.
Fisk is tougher because he was hurt at 26 and 27 (and 31?) which may have derailed his hitting ... but it kept him from catching which may have helped. One of the entertaining things about my Kendall look was that neither Fisk nor Boone showed up on my list of heavily used Cs through age 30.
Fisk
24-27: 138
28-30: 125
31-33: 110
34-37: 110
38-42: 112 (pulled down by one awful season)
Fisk probably has one of the oddest aging curves in MLB history.
If I did my math right, ZiPS is projecting Mauer to average about a 111 OPS+ for the remaining 5400 projected PAs of his career. Not sure how impressed the voters are going to be with that either. :-)
The one and only, Davo.
Is he better than Alfonso Soriano yet?
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