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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, February 22, 20112011 ZiPS Projections - New York YankeesAs anybody can see, the Yankees have a championship-caliber offense. There’s little question about the abilities of any of their starters and if Jesus Montero were a few years younger, ZiPS would be seized by the Robot Enforcement Authority and deleted as a sex crime offender.
The Yankees will need the bats. To say the Yankee pitching, especially the starters, is top-heavy is a pretty big understatement. As top-heavy goes, it’s more “Joba Chamberlain wearing 10-gallon hat filled with gravy riding piggyback on David Samson’s shoulders on a unicycle” type. If Sabathia is Citizen Kane, the prospective 4th and 5th starters are Meet the Spartans 2: The Lycians Go to Band Camp developed by your idiot cousin and his troglodytic moonshine-buddies and filmed in pitch black with a video phone from 2006. Don’t even think about what happens if Sabathia or Hughes or (!) Burnett go on the DL for any reason. It’s actually a little worse than the lines below given that Pettitte is retired and neither Banuelos or Betances, even if relatively competent to pitch in the majors now, shouldn’t be rushed.
The Yankees do have enough firepower that they’ll be in the thick of things, but I think the Yankees, like the Rays, are a clear step behind the Red Sox right now.
Last up: El Spreadsheet Magnifico
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Alex Rodriguez R 3B 35 .277 .369 .527 124 459 73 127 23 1 30 103 63 96 10 3 132 Mark Teixeira B 1B 31 .273 .375 .516 147 560 92 153 35 1 33 107 84 116 1 0 132 Robinson Cano L 2B 28 .298 .346 .491 156 605 83 180 39 3 24 88 41 71 4 4 117 Jesus Montero R C 21 .276 .334 .503 145 539 66 149 34 2 28 87 47 109 0 0 116 Curtis Granderson L CF 30 .261 .338 .494 148 551 90 144 22 11 28 75 62 126 14 3 115 Nick Swisher B RF 30 .258 .356 .485 146 515 80 133 29 2 28 81 75 133 1 2 119 Jorge Posada B C 39 .247 .344 .457 106 348 41 86 20 1 17 56 48 96 2 1 109 Brett Gardner L LF 27 .260 .355 .367 140 442 76 115 16 8 5 37 63 93 42 8 91 Derek Jeter R SS 37 .280 .347 .393 140 582 82 163 24 3 12 58 54 90 17 5 95 Nick Johnson L 1B 32 .245 .405 .375 57 184 28 45 9 0 5 26 46 45 1 2 108 Andruw Jones R DH 34 .221 .320 .438 96 290 40 64 13 1 16 46 41 80 6 2 97 Russell Martin R C 28 .253 .358 .361 128 446 64 113 18 0 10 51 68 79 12 5 90 Jorge Vazquez R 1B 29 .250 .283 .444 77 304 34 76 17 0 14 51 13 90 0 0 88 Brandon Laird R 3B 23 .250 .297 .424 156 599 69 150 29 3 23 93 37 126 1 2 87 Ronnie Belliard R 2B 36 .247 .309 .395 88 214 32 52 11 1 7 34 20 49 2 1 86 Justin Maxwell R CF 27 .211 .312 .377 121 361 55 76 14 2 14 42 50 141 21 7 81 Eduardo Nunez R SS 24 .268 .306 .363 152 570 64 153 26 2 8 52 29 80 21 8 75 Austin Romine R C 22 .251 .294 .384 143 565 65 142 31 1 14 70 32 117 6 2 77 Daniel Brewer R RF 23 .247 .311 .362 134 506 64 125 28 3 8 63 41 132 19 9 77 Jordan Parraz R RF 26 .244 .319 .359 119 443 57 108 23 2 8 49 37 94 10 8 78 Reegie Corona B 2B 24 .242 .305 .346 141 529 64 128 26 4 7 38 47 96 18 5 71 Francisco CervelliR C 25 .257 .332 .338 91 269 25 69 12 2 2 29 26 51 1 3 77 David Adams R 2B 24 .239 .305 .362 89 351 43 84 22 3 5 43 29 83 7 5 75 Kevin Russo R 3B 26 .252 .309 .327 109 401 45 101 17 2 3 29 29 77 10 5 68 Colin Curtis L RF 26 .237 .295 .351 127 459 49 109 24 2 8 43 34 93 4 3 69 Greg Golson R CF 25 .236 .277 .348 149 529 56 125 22 5 9 46 28 160 20 7 63 Ramiro Pena B 3B 25 .241 .287 .309 115 311 35 75 11 2 2 30 20 62 9 3 57 Bradley Suttle B 3B 25 .218 .275 .338 135 542 51 118 27 4 10 55 43 169 6 2 60 Melky Mesa R CF 24 .197 .262 .360 143 547 63 108 21 7 18 62 41 211 19 10 62 Gustavo Molina R C 29 .227 .262 .357 61 185 17 42 9 0 5 20 8 37 0 1 61 Chad Moeller R C 36 .223 .273 .331 49 139 12 31 9 0 2 13 8 32 0 0 58 Austin Krum L CF 25 .216 .290 .295 135 518 67 112 18 4 5 41 50 130 12 7 55 Eric Chavez L DH 33 .205 .260 .313 31 112 11 23 6 0 2 13 9 28 0 0 50 Doug Bernier R SS 31 .194 .282 .266 82 248 30 48 10 1 2 20 27 77 3 1 46 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Alex Rodriguez FR/69 Mark Teixeira AV/59 Robinson Cano FR/80 Jesus Montero FR Curtis Granderson AV/84 Nick Swisher AV/106 FR/172 AV/106 Jorge Posada PO FR/117 Brett Gardner EX/38 VG/50 Derek Jeter FR/64 Nick Johnson FR/129 Andruw Jones AV AV/110 AV/114 PO/113 AV/114 Russell Martin FR/142 Jorge Vazquez AV/150 PO/111 Brandon Laird AV/103 FR/118 Ronnie Belliard AV/137 FR/122 FR/129 PO/118 Justin Maxwell AV/121 AV/121 AV/121 Eduardo Nunez AV/116 AV/110 VG/127 Austin Romine FR Daniel Brewer VG/102 AV/112 AV/90 Jordan Parraz PO/144 VG/148 Reegie Corona AV/112 AV/117 AV/106 Francisco Cervelli AV David Adams AV/106 AV/108 Kevin Russo AV/110 AV/119 FR/106 AV/120 FR/107 Colin Curtis VG/110 AV/115 AV/90 Greg Golson VG/105 VG/140 VG/113 Ramiro Pena VG/109 VG/102 VG/115 AV/106 Bradley Suttle AV/105 FR/110 Melky Mesa VG/106 AV/134 VG/120 Gustavo Molina VG Chad Moeller FR Austin Krum VG/121 AV/109 VG/160 Eric Chavez FR/102 FR/102 Doug Bernier VG/110 VG/98 VG/106 FR/77 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ CC Sabathia L 30 3.32 19 8 33 33 230.3 206 85 20 64 210 133 Phil Hughes R 25 4.08 11 7 26 26 147.7 145 67 18 46 131 108 Andy Pettitte L 39 4.14 9 6 23 23 139.0 139 64 15 48 106 107 A.J. Burnett R 34 4.50 12 10 30 30 182.0 184 91 22 74 159 98 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Dellin Betances R 23 4.61 5 4 16 16 66.3 66 34 8 34 56 96 Sergio Mitre R 30 4.71 4 4 25 14 91.7 101 48 11 25 52 94 Manuel Banuelos L 20 4.92 4 4 19 16 75.0 80 41 9 36 57 90 Freddy Garcia R 36 4.96 4 6 15 15 82.0 90 44 12 23 51 92 Adam Warren R 23 5.04 7 7 21 21 100.0 118 56 12 35 62 88 David Phelps R 26 5.15 6 7 23 23 122.3 144 70 16 42 71 86 Hector Noesi R 24 5.26 6 7 22 20 106.0 121 62 18 28 72 84 Ivan Nova R 24 5.29 7 8 28 26 149.7 170 88 19 69 88 84 Mark Prior R 30 5.40 0 1 2 2 10.0 11 6 2 5 7 82 Andrew Brackman R 25 5.60 9 12 27 26 127.0 155 79 17 51 73 79 Bartolo Colon R 38 5.63 2 3 8 8 38.3 44 24 6 14 20 79 D.J. Mitchell R 24 5.86 7 11 26 25 132.0 159 86 17 72 74 75 Steve Garrison L 26 6.04 2 4 13 10 53.7 65 36 10 22 31 73 Ryan Pope R 25 6.41 4 8 33 15 98.3 126 70 18 40 54 69 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Mariano Rivera R 41 3.28 4 1 53 0 49.3 44 18 5 12 45 135 Rafael Soriano R 31 3.29 3 1 56 0 52.0 42 19 6 16 59 135 David Robertson R 26 3.49 5 3 60 0 67.0 56 26 6 34 83 127 Joba Chamberlain R 25 3.71 5 3 77 0 77.7 71 32 8 29 83 119 Pedro Feliciano L 34 4.07 5 3 82 0 55.3 54 25 5 22 50 109 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Pat Venditte B 26 4.34 3 2 42 0 56.0 57 27 7 21 44 102 Jonathan AlbaladejR 28 4.36 4 3 61 0 64.0 62 31 8 24 54 102 Damaso Marte L 36 4.44 2 1 36 0 26.3 24 13 4 12 26 100 Boone Logan L 26 4.47 3 2 56 0 54.3 54 27 6 24 49 99 Buddy Carlyle R 33 4.85 4 4 32 8 68.7 73 37 10 23 56 91 Brian N. Anderson R 29 4.99 0 1 39 0 39.7 43 22 5 21 26 89 Warner Madrigal R 27 5.25 2 4 50 0 58.3 61 34 11 25 42 84 Luis Ayala R 31 5.26 5 5 48 0 53.0 61 31 7 20 34 84 Daniel Turpen R 24 5.29 5 6 50 0 66.3 78 39 7 33 40 84 Romulo Sanchez R 27 5.67 5 8 33 10 81.0 88 51 10 56 56 78 Eric Wordekemper R 27 5.73 2 3 41 0 54.7 64 36 11 25 34 75 Andy Sisco L 28 5.88 3 5 48 0 59.7 65 39 8 45 48 75 Robert Fish L 23 7.27 2 6 37 5 60.7 81 49 14 34 39 61 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Alex Rodriguez .293 .375 .552 2967 11368 2098 3329 592 36 761 2326 1382 2291 342 138 Derek Jeter .305 .373 .438 2842 11638 1985 3551 561 71 280 1357 1121 1893 377 112 Robinson Cano .292 .335 .468 2415 9405 1250 2746 576 51 327 1294 563 1002 53 109 Andruw Jones .253 .335 .482 2278 7948 1250 2008 403 39 446 1338 933 1809 165 109 Mark Teixeira .274 .365 .506 2183 8356 1323 2287 526 24 455 1534 1100 1583 22 125 Jorge Posada .271 .371 .473 2006 6723 974 1820 421 12 305 1169 1018 1629 26 120 Curtis Granderson .259 .330 .467 1873 7052 1103 1827 299 128 304 863 727 1526 161 107 Nick Swisher .251 .349 .458 1829 6451 986 1616 366 21 310 957 934 1545 15 111 Russell Martin .258 .355 .371 1669 5862 825 1513 256 7 130 690 818 913 163 91 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ CC Sabathia 274 155 0 3.65 553 553 3705 3437 1501 351 1120 3170 121 A.J. Burnett 160 151 0 4.27 417 413 2586 2448 1226 279 1097 2307 101 Phil Hughes 143 98 3 4.16 367 325 1888 1820 873 241 602 1681 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Alex Rodriguez 3B 64% 25% 8% 3% 1% Bob Elliott Ken Boyer Doug DeCinces Mark Teixeira 1B 40% 33% 13% 10% 4% Davey Johnson Rocky Colavito Chili Davis Robinson Cano 2B 56% 18% 12% 9% 5% Jose Vidro Jorge Orta Lou Whitaker Jesus Montero C 53% 30% 11% 5% 1% Mike Sweeney Ivan Rodriguez Todd Zeile Curtis Granderson CF 49% 22% 18% 8% 2% Andy Van Slyke Steve Finley Brady Anderson Nick Swisher RF 23% 31% 20% 15% 11% Ken Henderson Austin Kearns Paul O’Neill Jorge Posada C 36% 31% 18% 11% 3% Jason Varitek Alan Ashby Rick Dempsey Brett Gardner LF 9% 19% 19% 25% 29% Sam Fuld Terrmel Sledge Stu Pederson Derek Jeter SS 21% 23% 30% 18% 8% Randy Velarde Luke Appling Dave Concepcion Nick Johnson 1B 4% 14% 18% 35% 29% Randy Ready Norm Siebern Randy Milligan Andruw Jones DH 3% 8% 11% 31% 46% Ty Van Burkleo Dave May Reed Secrist Russell Martin C 10% 25% 26% 25% 14% Al Lopez George Williams Jim Sundberg Jorge Vazquez 1B 0% 2% 5% 23% 69% Jason Dubois Randy Ruiz Juan Diaz Brandon Laird 3B 1% 7% 12% 22% 58% Casey Webster David Winfree Jamie D’Antona Ronnie Belliard 2B 10% 10% 14% 24% 42% Marty McManus Greg Gagne Jerry Royster Justin Maxwell CF 2% 4% 14% 29% 51% Steve Howard Brandon Boggs Mike Murphy Eduardo Nunez SS 2% 7% 18% 30% 43% Pedro Chavez Julio Franco Carlos Rios Austin Romine C 3% 7% 12% 26% 52% Mike Fitzgerald Rey Palacios Randy Knorr Daniel Brewer RF 0% 1% 2% 8% 88% Marvin Garrison Vernon Thomas Wil Culmer Jordan Parraz RF 0% 1% 3% 9% 87% Dave Hollins Luis Montanez Alvin Moore Reegie Corona 2B 3% 3% 5% 13% 77% Sean Kazmar Jason Bourgeois Steve Benson Francisco CervelliC 0% 2% 7% 25% 65% Al Lopez Steven Clevenger Larry Gonzales David Adams 2B 1% 2% 4% 14% 79% Luke Hughes Felix Molina Omar Moraga Kevin Russo 3B 0% 0% 1% 5% 93% Juan Melo Rene Gonzales Kelly Paris Colin Curtis RF 0% 0% 1% 2% 98% Nate Peterson Erold Andrus Randy Jorgensen Greg Golson CF 1% 1% 2% 8% 89% Xavier Paul Roberto Kelly Tommy Murphy Ramiro Pena 3B 0% 0% 1% 2% 98% Raul Barron Curtis Wilkerson Ron Marigny Bradley Suttle 3B 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Mike Turgeon Brian Barden Sean Mcnally Melky Mesa CF 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Darren Blakely Jeremy Owens Gerald Williams Gustavo Molina C 1% 2% 2% 7% 87% Charlie Greene Scott Servais Pedro Grifol Chad Moeller C 0% 1% 1% 5% 93% Joe Oliver Raul Chavez Tony Pena Austin Krum CF 0% 0% 1% 1% 98% Tyrone Pendergrass Kennard Jones Kardam of Bulgaria Eric Chavez DH 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Dann Howitt Darrell Whitmore Orsino Hill Doug Bernier SS 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Ray Oyler Gary Green Brandon Chaves Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Mariano Rivera RP 67% 28% 5% Trevor Hoffman Doug Jones Hoyt Wilhelm Rafael Soriano RP 73% 24% 3% Tom Henke Trevor Hoffman Mel Rojas CC Sabathia SP 88% 6% 6% Sandy Koufax Ron Guidry Teddy Higuera David Robertson RP 57% 38% 5% Mark Littell Steve Bedrosian Mark Clear Joba Chamberlain RP 37% 51% 12% Jonathan Broxton Robb Nen Ron Robinson Pedro Feliciano RP 26% 52% 23% Gary Lavelle Dennis Cook Chuck McElroy Phil Hughes SP 40% 45% 10% Scott Bankhead Frank Pastore Danny Haren Andy Pettitte SP 39% 48% 13% Al Leiter Jerry Koosman Chuck Finley Pat Venditte RP 20% 51% 30% Randy St. Claire Todd Frohwirth George Jorgensen Jonathan AlbaladejRP 19% 54% 27% Luis Vizcaino Dan Miceli Jerrod Riggan Damaso Marte RP 23% 33% 44% Tippy Martinez Ron Villone Trever Miller Boone Logan RP 17% 51% 32% Jim Poole Yorkis Perez Tim Young A.J. Burnett SP 22% 58% 20% Dave Burba Rick Sutcliffe Todd Stottlemyre Dellin Betances SP 24% 49% 27% Jeff Juden Mike Bielecki Jason Schmidt Sergio Mitre SP 28% 42% 30% Mickey Weston John Doherty A.J. Sager Buddy Carlyle RP 6% 38% 56% Rusty Meacham Todd Van Poppel Mark Leiter Manuel Banuelos SP 13% 41% 46% Bill Scherrer Brandon Claussen Manny Parra Freddy Garcia SP 17% 44% 39% Paul Byrd Shane Reynolds Gil Heredia Brian N. Anderson RP 8% 32% 60% Tony Fiore Mike Bumstead Matt Ryan Adam Warren SP 8% 48% 44% Sergio Mitre Ramiro Mendoza Josh Fogg David Phelps SP 4% 42% 54% Brian Moehler Michael Macdonald Wally Whitehurst Warner Madrigal RP 4% 30% 65% Jeff Plympton Paul Boris Jack Hardy Luis Ayala RP 3% 27% 70% Don Gordon Todd Williams Chuck Crim Hector Noesi SP 4% 38% 58% Geoff Geary Keith Foulke Bob Wolcott Daniel Turpen RP 2% 22% 76% Rosman Garcia Jeremy Blevins Dave Smith Ivan Nova SP 3% 40% 57% Ed Wojna John Johnstone Jay North Mark Prior SP 30% 17% 52% Jeff Bittiger Tony Armas Eric Junge Andrew Brackman SP 1% 23% 76% Darrell Rasner Marcus Jones Joe Housey Bartolo Colon SP 12% 22% 66% Bob Welch Dennis Springer Tim Belcher Romulo Sanchez RP 0% 9% 91% Steve Green Jake Robbins Evan Englebrook Eric Wordekemper RP 0% 6% 93% Steve Narleski Steven Rowe Alan Benes D.J. Mitchell SP 0% 13% 87% Jake Joseph Jeff Fulchino Clint Sodowsky Andy Sisco RP 0% 8% 92% Bobby Sprowl Matt Whisenant Bill White Steve Garrison SP 2% 16% 82% Heath Phillips Buddy Groom Larry Casian Ryan Pope SP 0% 2% 98% Matt Childers Brandon Reed Dicky Gonzalez Robert Fish RP 0% 0% 100% Renay Bryand Nick Felix Juan Cedeno Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Alex Rodriguez 19% 40% 64% 0% 0% 49% 33% 2% Mark Teixeira 14% 49% 62% 11% 0% 64% 33% 0% Robinson Cano 46% 12% 41% 32% 4% 28% 11% 0% Jesus Montero 16% 7% 48% 10% 2% 38% 11% 0% Curtis Granderson 6% 9% 41% 0% 54% 40% 11% 2% Nick Swisher 6% 24% 35% 2% 1% 37% 13% 0% Jorge Posada 4% 16% 21% 0% 0% 3% 8% 0% Brett Gardner 6% 24% 1% 0% 30% 0% 0% 87% Derek Jeter 20% 15% 4% 0% 2% 4% 3% 7% Nick Johnson 5% 76% 1% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Andruw Jones 1% 4% 10% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Russell Martin 4% 25% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 4% Jorge Vazquez 3% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Laird 1% 0% 5% 2% 3% 18% 0% 0% Ronnie Belliard 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Justin Maxwell 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Eduardo Nunez 8% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 13% Austin Romine 2% 0% 2% 5% 0% 3% 1% 0% Daniel Brewer 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 7% Jordan Parraz 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Reegie Corona 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 0% 0% 9% Francisco Cervelli 6% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% David Adams 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Kevin Russo 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Colin Curtis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Greg Golson 0% 0% 1% 0% 7% 1% 0% 6% Ramiro Pena 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bradley Suttle 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% Melky Mesa 0% 0% 1% 0% 17% 5% 0% 8% Gustavo Molina 2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chad Moeller 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Austin Krum 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% Eric Chavez 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Doug Bernier 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Mariano Rivera 59% 93% 56% 51% 78% Rafael Soriano 73% 96% 96% 16% 80% CC Sabathia 62% 94% 59% 13% 84% David Robertson 49% 89% 98% 0% 71% Joba Chamberlain 35% 83% 92% 2% 71% Pedro Feliciano 26% 67% 55% 2% 69% Phil Hughes 16% 72% 45% 6% 41% Andy Pettitte 11% 64% 10% 2% 56% Pat Venditte 14% 52% 16% 5% 52% Jonathan Albaladej 14% 56% 32% 2% 42% Damaso Marte 23% 52% 65% 4% 52% Boone Logan 12% 49% 50% 1% 54% A.J. Burnett 4% 45% 42% 0% 42% Dellin Betances 8% 42% 33% 0% 47% Sergio Mitre 9% 44% 1% 25% 50% Buddy Carlyle 4% 38% 23% 7% 32% Manuel Banuelos 3% 31% 10% 0% 49% Freddy Garcia 5% 32% 2% 16% 32% Brian N. Anderson 8% 31% 3% 0% 52% Adam Warren 1% 22% 1% 2% 47% David Phelps 0% 15% 0% 2% 42% Warner Madrigal 3% 28% 4% 1% 17% Luis Ayala 3% 24% 1% 4% 48% Hector Noesi 0% 14% 1% 26% 10% Daniel Turpen 1% 15% 1% 0% 66% Ivan Nova 0% 12% 0% 0% 43% Mark Prior 16% 48% 15% 16% 54% Andrew Brackman 0% 6% 0% 0% 29% Bartolo Colon 4% 16% 1% 9% 28% Romulo Sanchez 0% 7% 3% 0% 44% Eric Wordekemper 0% 4% 1% 0% 16% D.J. Mitchell 0% 2% 0% 0% 39% Andy Sisco 0% 6% 22% 0% 47% Steve Garrison 0% 5% 0% 2% 15% Ryan Pope 0% 1% 0% 0% 8% Robert Fish 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Los Angeles Angels Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Chicago Cubs Boston Red Sox
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 22, 2011 at 04:48 PM | 92 comment(s)
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1. The District Attorney Posted: February 22, 2011 at 04:55 PM (#3755819)Venditte: Cool!
Nova: Ouch!
So awesome.
Age didn't seem to hurt Wagner, Thome or Saito as much...which is even more interesting.
Saito and Rivera are both entering their 41 year old seasons..
____ 2008 2009 2010 ZiPs
Saito.. 169 194 139 131
Rivera 319 262 238 135
So even after having three straight better seasons, and a much longer career in the MLB with success,than Saito, Mariano drops off 103 points (43%) from 2010, and Saito only drops 8 points (~6%).
Just seems really odd, and I'm curious if there is a specific reason, or something that sets the two situations apart?
Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?
"
Does DMB allow for switchy pitchers? "So awesome" is almost an understatement.
any chance there's gonna be a separate sheet with defensive ratings?
Yeah, how the hell does ZiPS come up with comparables for a two-handed pitcher?
Greg Harris?
Nope, he's not., 42 is...and he's not allowed to at number (except for one day a year?), for multiple reasons!
Check out their strikeout rates, for one thing. Saito's FIP (2.58) was also lower than Rivera's (2.75) last year, despite the vast difference in their ERA+ numbers.
I'm reasonably certain that those names are made up. "Randy St. Claire" is a porn name if I ever saw one.
EDIT: Ah, coke to craig.
Oh, I understand that. But then what about BB rates? Or the fat 4.25 FIP Saito put up in 2009(something Mo hasn't come within 1.30 of since 2000)?
I'm not saying Mo should only see a 6% drop from last year and get a 224 ERA+ or that Saito should see the 43% drop (79ERA+! lol), it just seems strikingly odd how the two projections ended up.
ERA+ doesn't quite work like that - the higher you go up, the more a run changes ERA+. So he's not really losing 43% of anything.
Also, in Rivera's case, ZiPS is extremely worried, in light of his age, of his suddenly losing a 1/3 of his strikeout rate, and thinks that his HR/FB rate will go back up.
HR
Bonds 762
A Rod 761
Aaron 755
RBI
A Rod 2326
Aaron 2297
Ruth . 2213
Anson 2075 (AA 1871-75 included)
Runs
2098, 7th, behind Mays
Total Bases
Aaron 6856
A Rod 6276
Musial 6134
slg%
at .552, he would be about 25th, between Aaron and Kiner
(edit: Pujols' ZiPS projections all fall short of top 3 leaderboard.)
Why didn't ZiPs care about Saito's nearly 30% drop in K rate from 2008 to 2009, with a balloon in BB/9? Is there a vast difference from age 40 to 41 in the system?
EDIT/ADDITION: And is it just age that makes ZiPs think his HR/9 jumps back up to a rate that he was never even close before 2009?
I would happily take that from Gardner.
Ivan Nova has a terrible statistical record, but I'm wondering if his uptick in velocity last year will stick long enough to let him beat that projection. I suppose we will see. I really hope a decent starter hits the market by June or so.
Just mostly trying to get an understanding of it. The projection is actually right about where I expected it to be (given last years and seeing the projections roll out over the years), but I just don't see the real reason why...even with adjustments for k/9 and HR/FB, both of which he (and other pitchers) have put up big seasons in spite of such declines. Product of a curious mind as to how it all works, sorry for keeping on about it!
Oh, and thank you for another year of ZiPS Dan!
EDIT: The Montero projection is beautiful.
By the way, I'm really excited to finally be able to play a season as the Yankees in MLB Show without a guarantee of breaking the all time wins record.
In that case, when you take into account league level of offense, AL vs. NL, and park change, Saito's decline was only about 19% and it was a decline into a less scary area (a smaller drop to a point nearly 2 K/9 higher).
And again, you're overestimating the amount of differentiation that ERA+ brings to the table. 3 fewer runs an entire year for Rivera moves him from 135 to 162.
And, in any case, ZiPS did project a Saito dropoff for 2010 - a dropoff to 139 from his career at-that-point 218. Incidentally, his 2010 ERA+ ended up at...139.
Agreed on Hughes. I think getting stretched out last year will let him keep missing bats after the All-Star break.
Do you think Nova is going to be useful or just better than that projection? I didn't get to see him much but I followed all of his starts on Gameday and while the velocity is pretty cool, I am not sure what else should give me any hope for him.
While it's not as ridiculous as I first thought, Davey Johnson as the top comp for Teixeira is a bit weird.
Definitely better than the projection and probably useful (like..90 ERA+ useful). The fastball is pretty good and the other stuff showed flashes enough. Thinking a homeless man's Wang. (The good Wang not the broken Wang)
Edit: Looking at it, his other two top comps Anderson and Van Slyke had post 30 peaks too. Is that a big part of his project rebound?
no relation.
Ah, when i looked it up, i just saw the 161 he was projected at with the Braves, forgot he was on the Sox sheet first.
Edit: Looking at it, his other two top comps Anderson and Van Slyke had post 30 peaks too. Is that a big part of his project rebound?
Individual comps have too small an influence to do that - mostly, ZiPS think that Granderson's BABIP is too low last two years given his speed and other stats.
Yeah, small amount of innings + good pitcher + change of league can really make that ERA+ swing.
The thing to remember about pitchers, especially older ones, is that there's always a lot of downside risk and even if they don't succumb in a particular case, it doesn't mean that it was wrong to take risk into account in advance. That's a basic lesson, one that even experienced investors forget (see mortgage-backed securities).
Cool, thanks!
Over the last 3 years, by the advanced measures, I have him a hair below average overall, but he's been above-average at preventing errors. He's right on the cusp of AV, but second baseman lose about a run of range a year and the three year average has him at 26 and he'll be 28.
Not a bad idea, though I'd have to do it in piece-by-piece since I deal with it systematically - for example, everyone's stats are league and team and park-neutralized and combined with league and team and park-neutralized minor league translations before I make a single projection.
the most encouraging thing about cano's 2010 was his walk rate, a career high 1bb/8.2pa.
edit: just looked it up, the league BABIP last year was .295
Not sure where you're getting that number. He walked 57 times in 696 PA, a rate of one BB per 10.4 PA. That's misleading, because 14 of those BBs were intentional. His unintentional BB rate was one BB per 15.9 PA.
Of course, he doesn't have to walk all that much to be a very valuable player.
Two hands? Just as long as you don't pick Jim Abbott, you're probably OK.
Yeah, but at least it's got boobs.
Red Sox fans laugh in your general direction!
But geez, that Montero projection is downright scary.
You think Pat Venditte needs gender reassignment surgery?
This prompted me to look at their B-ref pages: Posada, and Varitek.
I'm a little confused as to where this comp comes from, since I thought they were offense only: Posada has ~6700 PA at an OPS+ of 123 (.275/.377/.479) Varitek has ~4900 PA at an OPS+ of 99 (.258/.343/.436) Unless the comps include defense/handling a pitching staff, they shouldn't be close. Wouldn't Posada comp better with Bill Freehan (~6900 PA at 112 OPS+) or Lance Parrish (~7800 PA at 106 OPS+)?
Now why do you think Pat Venditte needs titties?
More on point, the Yankees look like they're going to have an excellent lineup, an excellent bullpen, and a starting rotation that will either be serviceable or one of the worst in the league. CC will be a stud, Hughes could very well be a legitimate stud, AJ Burnett's projected ERA probably has a bimodal peak, and you've got a rookie as the 4th starter which at least is better news than Sergio Mitre as the 5th starter. If Hughes takes a step back and Burnett repeats last year, you're looking at a team that has to tax its bullpen during the regular season and mashes their way into playoff contention. If both Hughes and Burnett step up, you're looking at a team which gets even more dangerous in the playoffs thanks to the shortened rotation.
Also, Jesus Montero's projection makes me want to take him in my keeper league draft even though I've sworn off Damnyankees just so I can watch the games without feeling the slightest abatement in the purity of my haterage.
I had to look it up, but Krum suceeded Kardam as rule of Bulgaria in 803.
Rk Player OPS+ PA Year Age Tm HR BA OBP SLG OPS1 Johnny Bench 129 592 1969 21 CIN 26 .293 .353 .487 .840
2 Frank Snyder 124 522 1915 21 STL 2 .298 .353 .387 .740
3 Johnny Bench 116 607 1968 20 CIN 15 .275 .311 .433 .743
4 Ted Simmons 114 563 1971 21 STL 7 .304 .347 .424 .771
5 Butch Wynegar 109 622 1976 20 MIN 10 .260 .356 .363 .719
6 Ivan Rodriguez 98 519 1993 21 TEX 10 .273 .315 .412 .727
7 Butch Wynegar 96 617 1977 21 MIN 10 .261 .344 .370 .715
8 Frankie Hayes 80 555 1936 21 PHA 10 .271 .335 .388 .723
Find a list of all 21 year old hitters and see where Montero's projection would rank. I'd imagine it's less remarkable.
Other Montero projections:
Bill James: .285/.348/.519
Oliver: .296/.341/.503
PECOTA: .283/.329/.466
If ZiPS is having its Wieters moment, a few other systems are having it too.
It's also probably worth noting that we have four years of pro baseball data on Montero now with which to project him, compared to the Wieters projection coming after just one season in the pros.
Montero's already an extremely unusual player. Unusual players do unusual things - players hitting 600 home runs are extremely rare, but that doesn't make Jim Thome's run at 600 an extreme longshot.
None of the projection systems are projecting some random duff A-ball catcher to have a 116 OPS+, but a guy who's already played nearly that well.
MCOA, Before you jump on the defensive for Dan, and make the assumption that I'm some idiot that didn't read Dan's disclaimer on playing time, please keep a couple of things in mind.
1.) I've only been reading here for about 7 years.
2.) All of the guys in the list above GOT 502 or more PA's. And none of them hit 28 HR. The assumption is that IF Montero got that much playing time, he would be projected to have that many homeruns. Therefore, ZIPS is projecting him to have the greatest 21 yr. old HR season in the history of the game, provided he gets a full season's worth of at bats. That is the fact and that is my observation.
Dan wrote:
Dan, I don't have access to the information at this time. If you do, can you answer your own question please ? Curious to know.
SG Wrote:
Absolutely. The MENTAL demands on a rookie catcher at the major league level are tremendous. The physical demans of the position are well known. Anyway, you pretty much answer your own question when you wrote:
Thats exactly the point. The absence of catchers from the top of the list of greatest seasons by a 21 year old shows clearly that position most definitely matters.
The points made about other projections systems numbers being comparable on a rate basis to what ZIPS is projecting, as well as the difference between this projection and the Wieters projection are well noted. Of course I was just exaggerating and funnin'. The posse sure arrived quick though, didn't it ? ;)
I would guess that if Montero's defense is a question, then it's all the more likely the rigors of trying to catch at the major league level are going to impact his offense. If he were already a great defensive catcher with an intuitive sense of game calling, polished technical skills, and the athleticism to carry the position, then he'd be able to relax and focus on his hitter enough to reach those projections.
Alot of the guys that DID have good or great offensive seasons at that young an age had excellent defensive reputations. (Maybe simmons being the exception there)
So you're saying an objective system that uses data and algorithms should incorporate a subjective adjustment based on second and third-hand feedback about his defensive reputation from scouts and the position he plays?
I have 4 catchers offensively in the last 40 years (including minor league translations) at the level of Montero at his age: Bench, Simmons, Torre, and Montero (they show up pretty soon in his comp list).
Sorry, kinda dirty pool to ask a question I already knew the answer to, especially as I'm the most likely person to have the data.
SG, you are pretty damn smart guy. And I've admired your work and posts for years. Of course the same goes for Dan. But how you got the above statement out of what I wrote is truly baffling. I didn't say anything of the kind, and I don't know why you interpret what I said to be what your wrote. It's so far off I almost don't even know how to defend it. But you knew I'd try. ;)
I mean are YOU saying that front office executives making decisions should abandon all subjective thought and rely solely on projection(s) systems to make their decisions ? I mean, I know you are not saying that, or think that, but if I were to accuse you of saying that, it would be on the same level of strawman.
Anyway, I was guessing at and positing a possible theory that catchers that are not elite defensively very early in their careers may take a little while longer to adjust in the majors and it could affect their hitting. I think it's a pretty plausible theory and the history of the game might suggest some validity to the thought. But clearly I didn't say the projection system should incorporate subjective thought.
Projections are an essential and indespensible part of the player evaluation process. But they are just that. Part of the process. Not the entire process. The fact Montero projects as well as he does is obviously due to his impressive record at such a young age. Yet the fact also exists that very few catchers that age have approached that level of performance in the entire history of the game.
Are you suggesting that the Yankees should look at a projection like this and treat it with the same reliability as the Teixera or A-Rod projection? Should they construct their team and lineup as if this projection had the same reliability ? I certainly wouldn't suggest that. I'd take anything over a 100 OPS+ as a major bonus.
Because no matter how good or great Montero has been so far, (And Dan kindly fills in the blank in his post just above), it's a longshot for him to meet that projection because he's a catcher. Reliability score here is low. Thats what I think anyway. Of course I could be wrong.
BTW, Nick Swisher, who has hit 29 HR each of the last two seasons and also has a 35 HR season on his resume has lower probability of hitting 30 HR than Montero..........just saying.
I think a more appropriate comparison would be to Minor Leaguer X of comparable mL service time. I think most of what you're saying has more to do with the error bars around projecting minor league performance than anything else. Of course, if there is some evidence that projection systems routinely miss on C moreso than the other positions when it comes to guys yet to make their debut it would be useful.
I guess I took the tone of your post as a critique that what ZiPS was spitting out was unrealistic, rather than you positing that there are reasons to be skeptical of such a bullish projection. Since it was the latter, I apologize.
Agreed. And they are less useful for prospects than they are for established players.
I think that makes some intuitive sense, and I believe research has shown catchers peak later than other players so that may be evidence that there's something to it.
Not sure I agree about the longshot notion since his projection is based on what he's actually done so far, but I do agree the reliability for any projection of a young and unusual player is very low. We don't have to go back too far to look at all the top prospects who never achieved what we thought they would. I have no idea if this is a bigger issue for catchers or not. It seems that teams move catching prospects who can hit off the position as soon as they have concerns about their defense so we don't have a lot of examples to look at. I wonder how Montero compares to Carlos Delgado when he debuted as a catcher defensively?
FWIW, I have Montero projected to hit .261/.327/.448, which as far as I can tell is the worst projection anyone has for him, so I am probably more in agreement with you than I am with ZiPS. Of course, I hope I'm terribly wrong.
As a fellow forecaster I may have jumped to Szym's defense a bit too quickly because you would not believe the amount of crap you get from people when you do projections.
I just want to emphasize how much I enjoy and how much I respect what you guys do. After the games and the drama of the season, I enjoy this part the most.
Pecota had Wieters going thermonuclear after hitting .345/.448/.576 in half a year in the Carolina League at age 22 (league:.258/.332/.395) and .365/.460/.625 in half a year in the EL (age 22) (league: .264/.338/.403)
Montero OTOH has hit .289/.353/.517 in a full season of AAA at age 20 (Wieters was hitting .305/.387/.504 in the IL- at age 23- when he was called up)(and F-Mart has slugged .490 in AAA- at younger ages, and he's now considered a failing if not failed prospect by many)
Montero also hit .337/.389/.562 at age 19 split between the FSL and the EL
I think Montero's age advantage makes Wieters/Montero comparisons difficult.
Also, as a partial excuse for Pecota, I'd also note that Wieter's 1/2 season in the El is a dead wringer for David Wright's 1/2 season in the EL. Of course Wright was a year younger and NOT A CATCHER.
What does this mean for Montero? Not a lot. Wieters is just one data point, Buster Posey is another, as is Russell Martin...
Very few minor leaguers hit as well as Montero has done. Far fewer hot as well as Montero has done- at the ages Montero has done it. Is he a sure thing? No, there is no such thing as a sure thing.
But, if he was in my favorite team's system? He'd be one guy whom I would hope was literally untouchable.
I used to use JPWF13
"Sycophant-Laden Flora" was a phrase used in a blog post battle between two prominent statheads (Sheehan and Tango) awhile back
Red Sox fans laugh in your general direction!"
What! Even factoring in defense, and Varitek was never a great defender, Posada has been a much better player.
Posada has always been a mediocre defensive catcher. Varitek has been above average.
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