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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, November 09, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’sThe A’s problem remains simple. The team has a solid, young, cost-controlled pitching staff and no impact hitters, either now or on the horizon. There’s Chris Carter, but both ZiPS and I remain skeptical that he’ll make enough contact to be the bat the team’s looking for - the Coliseum (or whatever the new name of the week is) is a difficult environment to hit in and I have a hard time seeing a guy who didn’t hit .260 in the PCL thriving there.
At least the team got Daric Barton to stop being so bunt-crazy.
Without a big step forward by a few of the young hitters, I can’t see the A’s really doing all that much better than .500. Unless they sign someone else this offseason, it would be nice if they don’t send Jack Cust to the minors at the start of the year for no real good reason. You can certainly improve on Cust and he’s a poor bet to age well, but as it currently stands, he’s one of the best offensive players in the organization.
Just a reminder as we’re only on team #3, I project injured players as well, so please don’t tell me that Ben Sheets will miss the 2011 season and has a very good shot of not pitching again.
On deck: Texas (they did start the season at only $55 million).
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Daric Barton L 1B 25 .258 .369 .400 159 547 88 141 32 5 12 66 93 99 4 3 108 Jack Cust L DH 32 .230 .362 .411 137 448 71 103 18 0 21 65 92 181 2 2 109 Coco Crisp B CF 31 .259 .326 .393 90 321 52 83 14 4 7 33 33 54 23 5 93 Ryan Sweeney L RF 26 .287 .343 .389 126 453 65 130 27 2 5 55 39 70 6 3 98 Rajai Davis R CF 30 .273 .318 .380 137 432 61 118 23 4 5 44 25 67 41 11 88 Chris Carter R 1B 24 .229 .314 .427 149 586 91 134 31 2 27 88 68 188 4 2 98 Michael Taylor R RF 25 .256 .319 .395 140 527 71 135 29 4 12 72 44 112 14 6 92 Kevin Kouzmanoff R 3B 29 .258 .298 .423 147 563 63 145 32 2 19 80 25 108 1 0 92 Grant Green R SS 23 .275 .311 .402 156 666 100 183 38 4 13 71 33 157 9 7 91 Kurt Suzuki R C 27 .260 .317 .387 148 551 68 143 27 2 13 74 38 67 4 2 89 Mark Ellis R 2B 34 .258 .322 .374 118 431 52 111 21 1 9 51 37 62 8 4 88 Dallas McPherson L DH 30 .209 .289 .426 105 383 47 80 16 2 21 58 41 154 5 2 90 Cliff Pennington B SS 27 .245 .320 .344 159 564 80 138 26 6 6 48 61 105 26 6 80 Matt Carson R CF 29 .232 .279 .406 114 409 55 95 20 3 15 46 23 98 12 3 82 Steven Tolleson R SS 27 .252 .316 .363 120 444 57 112 21 2 8 37 39 91 9 5 83 Travis Buck L RF 27 .241 .311 .369 77 282 40 68 14 2 6 30 25 68 4 2 83 Adam Rosales R 2B 28 .245 .305 .379 113 372 50 91 17 3 9 42 28 88 4 3 84 Eric Sogard L 2B 25 .253 .323 .353 142 566 84 143 28 4 7 60 59 80 10 8 83 Jeremy Hermida L LF 27 .227 .303 .367 116 387 41 88 16 1 12 43 39 105 4 1 80 Adrian Cardenas L 2B 23 .255 .314 .342 140 546 75 139 30 3 4 61 48 82 6 7 78 Conor Jackson R LF 29 .221 .313 .326 81 285 37 63 13 1 5 35 36 39 6 1 74 Adam Heether R 3B 29 .221 .313 .337 112 389 48 86 19 1 8 37 46 92 6 3 76 Akinori Iwamura L 2B 32 .229 .322 .322 111 397 52 91 17 4 4 30 54 89 6 4 75 Landon Powell B C 29 .212 .302 .338 61 198 24 42 7 0 6 25 26 50 1 0 73 Jeff Baisley R 3B 28 .231 .285 .355 103 394 42 91 23 1 8 43 25 100 2 1 72 Corey Wimberly B CF 27 .245 .310 .295 114 461 72 113 12 4 1 34 33 65 36 12 65 Josh Donaldson R C 25 .210 .289 .356 115 419 49 88 20 1 13 58 46 112 5 2 73 Corey Brown L CF 25 .209 .280 .348 122 460 58 96 18 5 12 51 43 169 11 2 69 Anthony Recker R C 27 .219 .276 .359 105 370 39 81 18 2 10 42 27 128 2 1 70 Jemile Weeks B 2B 24 .218 .278 .311 89 363 42 79 14 4 4 34 29 72 8 5 59 Eric Chavez L DH 33 .205 .260 .313 31 112 11 23 6 0 2 12 9 29 0 0 54 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Daric Barton VG/120 Jack Cust PO/163 PO/119 Coco Crisp VG/120 Ryan Sweeney VG/54 AV/67 VG/54 Rajai Davis VG/112 AV/110 VG/112 Chris Carter PO/186 PO/180 PO/180 Michael Taylor AV/156 AV/156 Kevin Kouzmanoff VG/60 Grant Green AV/224 Kurt Suzuki FR Mark Ellis VG/56 Dallas McPherson AV/121 AV/122 Cliff Pennington AV/157 AV/120 AV/123 Matt Carson AV/118 AV/118 AV/118 Steven Tolleson VG/171 AV/118 AV/112 AV/100 AV/114 Travis Buck AV/62 PO/101 AV/62 Adam Rosales AV/103 AV/86 AV/110 FR/103 AV/114 Eric Sogard AV/148 AV/106 FR/115 Jeremy Hermida FR/121 FR/121 Adrian Cardenas AV/145 FR/117 FR/150 Conor Jackson AV/120 AV/102 Adam Heether FR/131 VG/82 PO/146 AV/103 AV/113 Akinori Iwamura FR/91 AV/108 Landon Powell VG FR/134 Jeff Baisley AV/95 AV/108 PO/124 Corey Wimberly AV/141 AV/151 AV/151 AV/119 FR/130 Josh Donaldson VG AV/157 FR/112 Corey Brown AV/114 AV/163 AV/124 Anthony Recker AV Jemile Weeks AV/173 Eric Chavez FR/102 FR/102 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Justin DuchschererR 33 3.77 3 2 8 8 45.3 43 19 4 14 32 110 Trevor Cahill R 23 4.07 14 12 32 32 194.7 188 88 23 67 119 102 Dallas Braden L 27 4.09 11 10 29 26 165.0 172 75 17 43 103 101 Brett Anderson L 23 4.12 9 8 23 23 126.7 135 58 12 33 101 100 Ben Sheets R 32 4.29 6 6 19 19 113.3 116 54 14 33 86 97 Gio Gonzalez L 25 4.31 11 11 34 32 183.7 174 88 20 93 172 96 Josh Outman L 26 4.80 3 4 21 10 65.7 70 35 7 32 50 86 Vin Mazzaro R 24 4.87 8 11 29 26 155.3 175 84 18 62 104 85 Bobby Cramer L 31 5.18 3 4 12 8 48.7 60 28 4 18 31 80 Tyson Ross R 24 5.32 5 8 31 16 88.0 95 52 10 49 65 78 Kyle Middleton R 31 5.83 3 6 17 10 66.3 79 43 10 32 36 71 Lenny DiNardo L 31 6.00 4 8 21 16 90.0 123 60 10 33 49 69 Clayton Mortenson R 26 6.12 6 14 28 28 154.3 191 105 26 65 91 68 Graham Godfrey R 26 6.20 4 10 30 24 127.7 167 88 15 64 74 67 Brett Tomko R 38 6.37 2 5 21 10 59.3 77 42 12 19 38 65 Matt Wright R 29 6.55 3 7 16 15 78.3 105 57 14 28 36 63 Pedro Figueroa L 25 6.88 3 8 18 18 85.0 115 65 12 55 54 60 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Andrew Bailey R 27 3.30 4 2 59 0 62.7 53 23 6 25 63 125 Craig Breslow L 30 3.46 5 3 71 0 65.0 54 25 7 27 62 120 Joey Devine R 27 3.57 2 1 22 0 22.7 20 9 2 9 23 116 Michael Wuertz R 32 3.63 3 2 59 2 57.0 49 23 6 25 63 114 Brad Ziegler R 31 3.84 4 3 66 0 68.0 68 29 5 27 47 108 Henry Rodriguez R 24 3.94 2 1 45 0 48.0 42 21 5 27 55 105 Dan Giese R 34 4.45 2 2 13 3 32.3 34 16 4 12 21 93 Brad Kilby L 28 4.47 2 2 38 0 48.3 47 24 6 21 43 93 Jerry Blevins L 27 4.50 3 3 67 0 66.0 70 33 8 23 59 92 Fautino De Los SanR 25 4.62 2 3 36 0 39.0 39 20 4 20 38 90 Boof Bonser R 29 4.79 1 2 19 3 41.3 45 22 5 14 34 86 Cedrick Bowers L 33 4.91 2 3 43 0 51.3 48 28 5 41 53 84 Ross Wolf R 28 4.95 2 2 30 0 40.0 43 22 4 20 27 84 Edwar Ramirez R 30 5.11 3 4 49 0 61.7 64 35 8 34 54 81 Marcus McBeth R 30 5.63 1 2 27 0 32.0 34 20 5 23 26 74 Fernando HernandezR 26 5.66 4 7 51 2 68.3 81 43 8 34 46 73 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Kurt Suzuki .255 .312 .376 1581 5862 683 1493 281 17 133 758 398 664 41 85 Daric Barton .250 .364 .390 1886 6435 999 1608 360 60 140 752 1122 1154 45 104 Mark Ellis .264 .329 .392 1347 4909 659 1294 252 25 110 564 434 713 77 93 Kevin Kouzmanoff .255 .297 .416 1359 5151 547 1312 284 19 169 720 239 938 11 91 Rajai Davis .273 .319 .375 1101 3314 459 906 175 30 34 323 196 499 291 86 Ryan Sweeney .280 .338 .385 1242 4406 607 1235 258 22 53 522 387 664 55 95 Jack Cust .238 .362 .420 1302 4238 628 1009 176 1 197 608 817 1520 17 110 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Brett Anderson 125 100 0 3.91 313 311 1744 1789 757 169 448 1449 106 Dallas Braden 116 117 0 4.21 332 294 1840 1922 861 193 498 1149 98 Trevor Cahill 187 149 0 3.96 419 418 2537 2381 1117 318 872 1612 104 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Daric Barton 1B 5% 18% 22% 34% 22% Elbie Fletcher Gerald Perry Sid Bream Jack Cust DH 7% 21% 21% 30% 21% Jim Gentile Bernie Carbo Carlos Pena Coco Crisp CF 23% 21% 26% 18% 12% Ed Stroud Steve Finley Ryan Freel Ryan Sweeney RF 2% 11% 17% 27% 44% Jeff Abbott Broderick Perkins John Kruk Rajai Davis CF 13% 18% 29% 25% 16% Willie McGee Doug Glanville Willie Wilson Chris Carter 1B 2% 9% 14% 33% 42% Paul Sorrento Carlos Pena Joe Citari Michael Taylor RF 1% 6% 11% 23% 59% Troy O’Leary Chris James Matt Stairs Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B 2% 11% 20% 28% 39% Charlie Hayes Vinny Castilla Mike Cervenak Grant Green SS 10% 18% 30% 25% 18% Robin Yount Travis Fryman Andujar Cedeno Kurt Suzuki C 5% 22% 26% 29% 18% Dan Wilson Ramon Hernandez John Ramos Mark Ellis 2B 7% 8% 12% 24% 48% Cookie Rojas Jeff Cirillo Rich Aurilia Dallas McPherson DH 1% 4% 7% 24% 64% Mike Hessman Chris Norton Mitch Jones Cliff Pennington SS 7% 15% 29% 29% 21% Jerry Royster Mike Sharperson Nelson Liriano Matt Carson CF 2% 6% 20% 33% 39% Ray Sadler Ruben Rivera Ken Gerhart Steven Tolleson SS 4% 10% 25% 30% 31% Vance Law Reno Bertoia Clete Boyer Travis Buck RF 0% 2% 5% 14% 79% Chris Aguila Mike Maksudian Garret Anderson Adam Rosales 2B 4% 6% 13% 26% 51% Nick Green Chris Woodward Brandon Inge Eric Sogard 2B 3% 4% 8% 21% 64% Derrel Thomas Damion Easley Russ Adams Jeremy Hermida LF 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Luis Jimenez Randy Washington Russ Morman Adrian Cardenas 2B 1% 2% 4% 12% 82% Tim Hummel Aaron Hill Jeff Treadway Conor Jackson LF 0% 1% 2% 7% 91% Mike Colangelo Jeff McKnight Keith Luuloa Adam Heether 3B 0% 2% 5% 14% 79% Tony Schrager Rodney Nye Mike Moriarty Akinori Iwamura 2B 1% 3% 5% 14% 77% Nelson Liriano Derrel Thomas Mickey Morandini Landon Powell C 2% 6% 9% 23% 60% Danny Ardoin Alan Ashby B.J. Waszgis Jeff Baisley 3B 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% Mike Ross Clay Bellinger Lou Lucca Corey Wimberly CF 0% 1% 5% 15% 79% Willy Taveras Keith Thrower Jim Buccheri Josh Donaldson C 2% 5% 10% 26% 57% Andy Dominique Luke Montz Adam Melhuse Corey Brown CF 1% 2% 6% 17% 74% Brad Snyder Todd Dunwoody Luis Saturria Anthony Recker C 1% 2% 6% 19% 72% Jack Fimple Tim Glass Joel Skinner Jemile Weeks 2B 1% 1% 1% 3% 94% Chris Dean Donnie Sadler Raul Rodarte Eric Chavez DH 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Dann Howitt Darrell Whitmore Orsino Hill Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Andrew Bailey RP 52% 40% 8% Rich Gossage Ray Narleski Mike Jackson Craig Breslow RP 41% 49% 10% Sid Monge George Sherrill Arthur Rhodes Joey Devine RP 51% 25% 25% Scott Garrelts Rich Gossage Jeff Parrett Michael Wuertz RP 31% 51% 18% Russ Springer Mike Williams Kyle Farnsworth Justin DuchschererSP 50% 36% 14% Eric Show Pete Harnisch Frank Castillo Brad Ziegler RP 21% 53% 26% Julian Tavarez Saul Rivera Mike Marshall Henry Rodriguez RP 21% 48% 31% Mark Clear Eric Cammack Brian Bruney Trevor Cahill SP 30% 56% 14% Jon Garland Nate Minchey Omar Olivares Dallas Braden SP 26% 59% 14% Kirk Rueter Allan Anderson Rick Honeycutt Brett Anderson SP 29% 56% 14% Donovan Osborne Steve Trout Andy Pettitte Ben Sheets SP 22% 55% 24% Rick Helling Mike Smithson Dennis Leonard Gio Gonzalez SP 17% 62% 21% Mark Langston Carlos Hernandez Sebern Wright Dan Giese RP 13% 31% 56% Braden Looper Ryan Franklin Pete Walker Brad Kilby RP 10% 42% 48% Todd Genke Eddie Guardado Dick Littlefield Jerry Blevins RP 8% 45% 47% Tom Gorman Pedro Feliciano Bob Patterson Fautino De Los SanRP 11% 39% 50% Julio Machado Ryan Bukvich Chad Harville Boof Bonser RP 8% 33% 59% Randy O’Neal John Wasdin Donn Pall Josh Outman SP 4% 26% 70% Jeff Fassero Pat Gomez Wayne Edwards Vin Mazzaro SP 3% 41% 56% Rich Loiselle Jose Guzman Bronson Arroyo Cedrick Bowers RP 3% 24% 73% Doug Creek Marshall Bridges Tim Fortugno Ross Wolf RP 5% 27% 68% Sean Green Greg Bauer Kevin Cameron Edwar Ramirez RP 2% 19% 79% Mike Butcher Reggie Harris Jimmy Serrano Bobby Cramer SP 9% 25% 66% Rick Waits Geoff Zahn Kent Mercker Tyson Ross SP 2% 25% 73% Ken Hill Greg Wooten Greg Mayberry Marcus McBeth RP 2% 12% 86% Brian Forystek Darwin Cubillan Steve Green Fernando HernandezRP 0% 8% 92% Andy Shipman Jamie Brisco Dennis Konuszewski Kyle Middleton SP 1% 10% 89% Ryan Jensen Robert Ellis Ken Ray Lenny DiNardo SP 1% 6% 93% Lee Gronkiewicz Rick Waits Mark Hendrickson Clayton Mortenson SP 0% 1% 99% Danny Tamayo Mark Nussbeck Jim Brower Graham Godfrey SP 0% 1% 99% Carlos Paredes Rick Sutcliffe Adam Russell Brett Tomko SP 1% 5% 94% Lew Burdette Boom-Boom Beck Doug Linton Matt Wright SP 0% 2% 98% Steve Ellsworth Jose Lima Clay Condrey Pedro Figueroa SP 0% 0% 100% Larry Thomas Mark Freed Bruce Lockhart Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Daric Barton 4% 38% 1% 6% 5% 0% 3% 0% Jack Cust 0% 33% 4% 0% 0% 10% 6% 0% Coco Crisp 7% 6% 2% 0% 5% 0% 1% 17% Ryan Sweeney 30% 11% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rajai Davis 16% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 82% Chris Carter 0% 2% 6% 4% 0% 36% 2% 0% Michael Taylor 4% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% Kevin Kouzmanoff 3% 0% 4% 5% 1% 6% 0% 0% Grant Green 13% 0% 3% 20% 5% 2% 1% 0% Kurt Suzuki 3% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% Mark Ellis 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Dallas McPherson 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 8% 1% 0% Cliff Pennington 1% 2% 0% 1% 14% 0% 0% 28% Matt Carson 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% Steven Tolleson 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Travis Buck 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adam Rosales 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Eric Sogard 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jeremy Hermida 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adrian Cardenas 2% 1% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% Conor Jackson 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adam Heether 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Akinori Iwamura 0% 4% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% Landon Powell 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jeff Baisley 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corey Wimberly 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 71% Josh Donaldson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Corey Brown 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% Anthony Recker 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Jemile Weeks 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% Eric Chavez 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Andrew Bailey 44% 85% 80% 2% 74% Craig Breslow 41% 87% 67% 1% 61% Joey Devine 51% 75% 69% 9% 85% Michael Wuertz 31% 77% 93% 1% 66% Justin Duchscherer 32% 67% 8% 19% 73% Brad Ziegler 21% 68% 4% 3% 93% Henry Rodriguez 21% 62% 94% 0% 65% Trevor Cahill 8% 55% 0% 3% 48% Dallas Braden 5% 56% 1% 28% 64% Brett Anderson 7% 56% 17% 25% 80% Ben Sheets 5% 44% 6% 11% 49% Gio Gonzalez 3% 44% 64% 0% 55% Dan Giese 13% 35% 5% 14% 66% Brad Kilby 10% 44% 47% 1% 44% Jerry Blevins 5% 39% 45% 7% 51% Fautino De Los San 7% 41% 62% 0% 63% Boof Bonser 5% 32% 26% 12% 67% Josh Outman 2% 24% 13% 1% 57% Vin Mazzaro 0% 14% 0% 0% 47% Cedrick Bowers 3% 21% 82% 0% 74% Ross Wolf 5% 24% 5% 1% 61% Edwar Ramirez 1% 16% 41% 0% 46% Bobby Cramer 3% 17% 6% 8% 75% Tyson Ross 0% 7% 5% 0% 54% Marcus McBeth 2% 9% 25% 0% 50% Fernando Hernandez 0% 4% 1% 0% 55% Kyle Middleton 0% 3% 2% 0% 30% Lenny DiNardo 0% 2% 1% 2% 62% Clayton Mortenson 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% Graham Godfrey 0% 0% 0% 0% 49% Brett Tomko 1% 5% 6% 18% 23% Matt Wright 0% 0% 0% 3% 12% Pedro Figueroa 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 09, 2010 at 04:35 AM | 44 comment(s)
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1. morineko Posted: November 09, 2010 at 04:45 AM (#3686465)I'm tickled that somehow Sweeney's #3 comp is Kruk. Kruk on a segway maybe.
Surely a lineup can't feature Barton, Cust and Carter all at the same time.
Green's top 2 comps are Yount and Fryman ... maybe he should play. Why do I have a sneaking suspicion that his #4-10 comps are all guys with 68 OPS+s?
Yeah, that's kind of weird to think about. Though the Krukster did steal 18 bases one time!
I'm not sure of any others ZiPS gets so wrong, but the numbers look too conservative to me for most of the A's pitchers. (Only Justin Duchscherer, who is a free agent, looks like ZiPS is overly optimistic about.)
As to the A's offense, it looks really bad right now, and ZiPS reflects that. My hope is that if the A's sign the Japanese pitcher, they will package a few of their young pitchers for some better bats. It would be nice to have Nick Swisher or Carlos Gonzalez or Nelson Cruz back in Oakland. Maybe if Cashman signs Jeter and moves him into the outfield, the Yankees would take Cliff Pennington and Andrew Bailey for Swisher? Maybe the Rangers would give up Cruz for Vin Mazzaro and Travis Buck?
Also I think Fautino is seriously underrated here.
IS ZIPS really worried about his injury last year?
Think about that.
When the Jays traded for him, and then immediately flipped him for Wallace, I was somewhat annoyed. Given Taylor's sudden cratering, it looks like AA may have had the right idea.
Now I just have to hope that the flip of Wallace for Gose will also work out.
OTOH, the projection for Green is surprisingly good IMO, esp. given the hideous BB-K ratio.
Rueter is actually a really good comp for Braden--one I haven't seen before. It works all the way down to their shutting down of the running game.
The A's position players will look a lot worse in an OPS+ style projection than a WAR style one, since they get a lot of their value from fielding and baserunning. But, still, this looks awful. Even the guys who outperformed their ZIPS from last year (Barton, Ellis, Pennington) have even worse projections this year.
They're not going to be replacing Suzuki behind the plate anytime soon, given his recent extension. I think he'll bounce back a good bit this year; that infield FB% can't be sustainable, can it?
The Anderson projection does seem a bit weird. He looks to have above average peripherals and a poor BABIP. And Cahill projects to keep some of his BABIP mojo.
It might be worth noting that ZIPS was more pessimistic than other projection systems regarding the A's pitching staff last year. Here's how three systems saw the team's top 7 SP (Sheets, Duke, Anderson, Braden, Cahill, Mazzaro, Gio) and top 7 RP (Bailey, Ziegler, Devine, Wuertz, Breslow, Blevins, Kilby) by average ERA, along with their actual results
. CHONE PECOTA ZIPS ActualStarters 4.19 4.34 4.59 3.47
Relievers 3.49 3.65 4.00 3.83
A lot of that run prevention goodness was due to the defense, but the defense projects to be pretty good again in 2011. The infield should decline some, but the outfield should pick up some of that slack after down years from Rajai and Sweeney.
Depressing, all around.
Also, wow, Dallas McPherson is still in baseball?
His option for 2011 was picked up by the A's.
A .427 as the top SLG is pretty sad. I think trading a young SP for Kemp or Rasmus plus signing 2 guys like Matsui, Ordonez, Dunn or Manny might make them a contender. I'd drop Cust if the budget allows somebody better and DH's didn't get much money last year. You can always string him along until the end of the offseason as a backup plan.
Nice projection for Green as others have said. I think the projection for Taylor is a little on the high side considering how bad he hit last year and in the AFL right now.
Do you guys think that Coco or Rajai have much trade value considering the slim pickings out on the CF market?
I like this idea.
ZiPS's offseason goal appears to be to make Pirates fans as happy as possible (which presumably is "not very"). Another offense that projects worse than the Pirates and, somehow, the starting rotation doesn't really project much better than the Pirates either (remember to take out Duke and Sheets).
Hey, a BJ Wazgis comp!
Here come the OMG police. Though they wouldn't be wrong about Rasmus--really think he's getting traded, with the year he just had??
The A's are the place that prospects go to die; Hermida, Conor Jackson, McPherson...I can only assume they are going to be acquiring Matt Bush in the near future.
edit: oh yeah and the offense suuuuuuuucks.
Hermida, Conor Jackson, McPherson all PERFORMED at one time or another (AAA anyway in McPherson's case)
Matt Bush?
not so much
That's DeJesus, Crisp, and who?
Beltran's not walking in that door. I suppose Jermaine Dye would listen if Billy called.
There's plenty of offseason left.
I remember seeing him play in the minors and he reminded me so much of Thome, in the sense that he looked like a grown man playing with kids... Shame.
He's too selective at the plate. He doesn't swing at enough strikes.
-- MWE
Mark Quinn, of course.
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