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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Sunday, November 07, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh PiratesThe Pirates are essentially the sports franchise equivalent of a cancer patient. Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington, however, inherited the malignancy, slowly nurtured through the years by those noted warpers of DNA, Cam Bonifay, Dave Littlefield, and Mickey “OMG I THOUGHT WE WERE HIRING LOGAN!” White. The metastasizing management spread to every part of the major league level, from free agent signings to scouting 43rd round picks from schools resembling 1-room schoolhouses of yore.
However, all is not lost. These cancers in baseball are invasive, but they are still treatable. The treatment may be decidedly unpleasant and the Ogden’s Nutting Gone Flake! Insurance Company may be slow to pay out claims, but the slow, painful chemotherapy has a good chance of making the Pirates whole again. Sure, there’s weight loss, depression, buckets of ennui, and, worst of all, occasional experiences watching Bobby Crosby try to hit a baseball (and only the kine bud needed to watch the team daily being a good experience), but the painful process is more likely to yield results than eating buffalo wings and pushing the oncology appointment back yet another month.
So where do the Pirates stand? They’ won’t be a good team in 2011 and probably not a good team in 2012. They’re making solid process on putting at least a decent offense together (the non-starters really destroyed the hitting last season) and while the pitching staff will continue to be ugly in the short-term, there’s a decent crop of pitchers in the low minors. It will take awhile, though, and it remains to be seen how patient the organization will be with the current plan. There have been some notorious 5-year-plans in recent Pirates history, but all those plans were less actual plans and more unwatchful waiting.
As an aside, the ZiPS Projections will most likely be released by DMB this spring. Without the horrific data-entry task, this should provide me enough time to provide properly regressed splits for all players instead of merely the ones with reasonable sample sizes. They’ll still regress heavily toward generic platoon splits, because that’s the way to project, but they should be there. The data-entry part was always the biggest time bandit - the projections themselves only take me about a third as long as it takes me to get them onto the DMB disk.
Next up: Padres
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Andrew McCutchen R CF 24 .288 .365 .453 160 614 113 177 37 8 16 70 72 98 34 12 118 Pedro Alvarez L 3B 24 .262 .337 .479 158 587 89 154 35 4 28 116 68 186 3 3 116 Neil Walker B 2B 25 .271 .321 .453 154 583 81 158 40 6 18 94 43 109 9 5 105 Jose Tabata R LF 22 .289 .343 .398 151 610 107 176 33 5 8 59 47 85 33 13 99 Ryan Doumit B C 30 .264 .329 .429 111 382 50 101 22 1 13 53 32 69 2 1 102 Garrett Jones L 1B 30 .262 .316 .444 149 565 73 148 33 2 22 85 46 110 10 4 101 Steven Pearce R 1B 28 .254 .326 .434 106 362 49 92 26 3 11 52 37 74 7 4 102 John Bowker L 1B 27 .264 .329 .430 136 440 62 116 22 3 15 65 41 92 4 4 102 Tony Sanchez R C 23 .269 .353 .390 71 264 36 71 18 1 4 43 26 60 1 1 99 Lastings Milledge R RF 26 .276 .330 .398 129 460 57 127 25 2 9 51 31 83 13 6 94 Delwyn Young B RF 29 .264 .314 .412 117 277 35 73 16 2 7 36 20 64 1 0 93 Brandon Moss L RF 27 .246 .304 .419 146 484 63 119 28 4 16 73 38 120 5 5 92 Brian Myrow L 1B 34 .238 .340 .363 97 320 44 76 14 1 8 43 46 74 2 1 89 Alex Presley L CF 25 .257 .305 .394 141 505 74 130 22 10 9 62 33 101 10 7 86 Chris Snyder B C 30 .215 .324 .381 97 289 34 62 12 0 12 45 45 78 0 0 88 Ronny Cedeno R SS 28 .253 .295 .385 125 392 45 99 19 3 9 45 22 79 9 3 81 Erik Kratz R C 31 .229 .296 .401 82 284 33 65 20 1 9 39 23 69 2 1 85 Jim Negrych L 2B 26 .258 .328 .346 125 442 66 114 21 3 4 50 44 82 8 5 81 Jonathan Van EveryL CF 31 .216 .305 .390 83 231 34 50 8 1 10 28 28 92 2 2 85 Kevin Melillo L LF 29 .233 .300 .380 102 374 48 87 20 4 9 40 37 70 5 3 81 Chase d’Arnaud R SS 24 .230 .304 .357 145 582 99 134 32 9 8 56 51 123 25 8 77 Pedro Ciriaco R SS 25 .268 .285 .356 147 579 71 155 24 6 5 58 14 99 26 8 71 Andy LaRoche R 3B 27 .232 .309 .355 125 380 50 88 16 2 9 40 40 63 3 1 78 Gorkys Hernandez R CF 23 .248 .300 .335 130 532 77 132 22 6 4 42 36 131 20 8 70 Mitch Jones R RF 33 .216 .266 .405 94 338 37 73 20 1 14 43 21 93 4 3 77 Kris Watts L C 26 .223 .311 .335 82 278 34 62 14 1 5 29 31 48 1 1 74 Brian Friday R 2B 25 .237 .311 .339 108 392 53 93 20 4 4 34 37 90 10 8 75 Jason Jaramillo B C 28 .234 .293 .339 80 274 23 64 12 1 5 34 22 50 1 0 69 Argenis Diaz R SS 24 .242 .285 .291 131 454 44 110 16 3 0 36 26 103 5 5 55 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Andrew McCutchen VG/113 AV/95 Pedro Alvarez FR/138 Neil Walker FR/94 AV/119 AV/108 Jose Tabata VG/61 FR/68 AV/113 Ryan Doumit FR FR/124 FR/151 FR/151 Garrett Jones AV/142 AV/90 AV/105 Steven Pearce AV/124 PR/149 AV/199 John Bowker AV/173 VG/172 AV/109 Tony Sanchez FR Lastings Milledge AV/87 FR/121 AV/107 Delwyn Young FR/108 AV/124 AV/121 AV/113 Brandon Moss AV/121 AV/119 PR/109 FR/49 Brian Myrow AV/141 PR/111 FR/101 FR/102 Alex Presley AV/112 AV/190 AV/102 Chris Snyder FR Ronny Cedeno AV/112 AV/114 Erik Kratz FR Jim Negrych AV/199 AV/155 Jonathan Van Every AV/128 AV/110 FR/57 AV/118 Kevin Melillo VG/172 AV/125 AV/127 AV/109 AV/144 Chase d’Arnaud AV/160 AV/116 FR/155 Pedro Ciriaco VG/117 VG/109 Andy LaRoche AV/98 FR/146 AV/98 Gorkys Hernandez EX/166 Mitch Jones FR/155 PR/170 PR/185 PR/134 PR/49 Kris Watts Brian Friday FR Jason Jaramillo AV Argenis Diaz VG/136 VG/136 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Ross Ohlendorf R 28 4.13 8 8 25 25 139.3 134 64 16 49 96 98 James McDonald R 26 4.14 7 7 35 20 121.7 117 56 12 53 95 97 Paul Maholm L 29 4.40 9 10 31 31 190.3 205 93 17 61 117 92 Kevin Hart R 28 4.56 4 5 27 11 71.0 71 36 7 37 55 88 Rudy Owens L 23 4.62 7 8 24 24 117.0 125 60 16 28 71 87 Zach Duke L 28 4.87 9 13 30 30 181.0 207 98 23 49 99 83 Charlie Morton R 26 4.95 9 13 29 29 154.7 168 85 17 64 100 82 Chris Jakubauskas R 32 4.95 3 5 19 9 60.0 67 33 8 21 32 81 Jeff Karstens R 28 5.06 6 9 32 19 128.0 143 72 20 36 71 80 Justin Wilson L 23 5.33 7 11 28 27 126.7 130 75 15 87 92 76 Brad Lincoln R 26 5.35 6 11 25 25 131.3 150 78 21 39 77 75 Bryan Morris R 24 5.37 5 9 24 22 107.3 125 64 13 49 63 75 Joe Martinez R 28 5.43 4 8 25 19 109.3 136 66 12 41 61 74 Brian Burres L 30 5.53 5 10 29 21 127.0 147 78 17 57 72 73 Michael Crotta R 26 5.57 6 12 29 29 148.7 194 92 15 44 75 72 Derek Hankins R 27 5.61 4 7 30 12 93.0 109 58 14 39 54 72 Donald Veal L 26 5.61 2 4 22 13 67.3 71 42 9 51 50 72 Daniel McCutchen R 28 5.65 7 14 33 26 151.3 173 95 30 50 81 71 Dana Eveland L 27 5.70 5 11 29 24 131.0 162 83 14 62 76 71 Jeremy Powell R 35 5.79 5 11 31 16 107.3 130 69 16 40 55 70 Tim Alderson R 22 6.23 5 12 25 24 120.0 155 83 20 44 57 65 Jared Hughes R 25 6.24 4 11 26 20 111.0 141 77 17 53 62 65 Pitching Projections - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Evan Meek R 28 3.46 3 2 55 0 67.7 56 26 5 33 56 117 Joel Hanrahan R 29 3.57 3 2 68 0 70.7 61 28 6 30 87 113 Chris Resop R 28 4.14 3 3 34 9 71.7 66 33 6 38 60 97 Chan Ho Park R 38 4.26 3 3 46 4 69.7 71 33 7 25 53 95 Wil Ledezma L 30 4.34 2 2 47 1 56.0 55 27 5 30 53 93 Jose Ascanio R 26 4.38 2 2 26 5 49.3 50 24 5 21 40 92 Brendan Donnelly R 39 4.41 2 2 37 0 32.7 32 16 4 17 26 91 Justin Thomas L 27 4.95 3 4 56 0 63.7 66 35 8 32 44 81 Vinnie Chulk R 32 5.06 1 1 32 0 37.3 42 21 4 17 24 80 Brian Bass R 29 5.17 3 5 49 2 85.3 98 49 9 41 50 78 Chris Leroux R 27 5.18 3 4 51 0 57.3 66 33 6 27 38 78 Danny Moskos L 25 5.37 3 5 57 0 57.0 63 34 6 36 38 75 Steven Jackson R 29 5.48 2 4 54 1 70.7 82 43 10 32 42 74 Anthony Claggett R 26 5.70 3 5 44 2 71.0 82 45 9 38 40 71 Ramon Aguero R 26 5.88 2 5 32 1 49.0 60 32 5 28 29 69 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ryan Doumit .260 .321 .413 1320 4463 536 1159 261 8 136 573 334 766 24 95 Pedro Alvarez .254 .328 .452 2253 8414 1178 2137 467 60 361 1533 937 2337 49 107 Andy LaRoche .227 .307 .344 771 2323 284 528 102 8 51 236 246 383 17 74 Neil Walker .262 .313 .430 1764 6645 881 1742 424 55 193 1013 492 1153 80 97 Andrew McCutchen .274 .353 .427 2530 9711 1672 2662 554 99 245 1030 1153 1445 355 108 Lastings Milledge .270 .327 .394 1254 4429 521 1196 232 21 92 489 307 788 107 92 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Zach Duke 70 103 0 4.63 240 239 1436 1701 738 163 389 765 90 Paul Maholm 93 114 0 4.54 318 318 1959 2152 987 187 653 1198 91 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Andrew McCutchen CF 60% 20% 13% 5% 2% Bernie Williams Lloyd Moseby Ellis Burks Pedro Alvarez 3B 27% 35% 21% 12% 5% Mark Reynolds Nick Esasky Hensley Meulens Neil Walker 2B 33% 20% 17% 16% 13% Khalil Greene Rick Schu Wade Rowdon Jose Tabata LF 6% 17% 19% 24% 35% Delmon Young Rocco Baldelli Juan Encarnacion Ryan Doumit C 23% 36% 22% 14% 4% Alan Ashby Brian Schneider Ed Ott Garrett Jones 1B 4% 11% 16% 35% 34% Rico Brogna Craig Monroe Kurt Bierek Steven Pearce 1B 2% 11% 17% 36% 34% Marcus Thames Brad Bierley Pat Casey John Bowker 1B 1% 10% 16% 35% 38% Sap Randall Mike Maksudian Gene Schall Tony Sanchez C 17% 35% 25% 17% 6% Alex Trevino John Jaso Rich Gedman Lastings Milledge RF 2% 7% 12% 25% 55% Ruben Mateo Andrew Locke Rod Allen Delwyn Young RF 1% 6% 12% 24% 57% Tim Costo Doug Deeds Dustan Mohr Brandon Moss RF 1% 4% 8% 17% 70% Jeff Liefer Keith Williams Oreste Marrero Brian Myrow 1B 1% 2% 4% 20% 73% Larry Sutton Stu Pederson Chris Pritchett Alex Presley CF 3% 5% 14% 29% 49% Tyler Colvin Nathan Haynes Angel Pagan Chris Snyder C 10% 21% 22% 28% 20% Kelly Stinnett Dave Valle Danny Ardoin Ronny Cedeno SS 6% 10% 23% 30% 31% Joe DeMaestri Travis Dawkins Tommy Shields Erik Kratz C 6% 14% 19% 30% 30% Ron Karkovice Keith McDonald Mike Rose Jim Negrych 2B 2% 4% 8% 21% 65% Jorge Sequea Peter Peltz Matt Erickson Jonathan Van EveryCF 2% 4% 13% 28% 53% Dustan Mohr Darrell Whitmore Armando Rios Kevin Melillo LF 0% 1% 3% 8% 87% Phil Dauphin Nate Murphy Marc Sagmoen Chase d’Arnaud SS 4% 8% 20% 30% 37% Joe Redfield Donnie Sadler Rod Smith Pedro Ciriaco SS 1% 4% 15% 31% 49% Anderson Hernandez Javier Guzman Kim Batiste Andy LaRoche 3B 1% 2% 6% 16% 75% Craig Counsell Rick Morris Brad Seitzer Gorkys Hernandez CF 0% 1% 5% 15% 79% Gary Thurman Elijah Bonaparte Jeff McNeely Mitch Jones RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Dustan Mohr Alan Cockrell Mike Devereaux Kris Watts C 1% 4% 6% 20% 70% Scott Hatteberg Alberto Castillo Mike Nickeas Brian Friday 2B 1% 1% 2% 9% 87% Tim Torres Manuel Francois Eric Martins Jason Jaramillo C 1% 3% 6% 17% 72% David Duff Alberto Castillo Brandon Marsters Argenis Diaz SS 0% 0% 0% 3% 97% Benny Ruiz Jim Scranton Freddie Benavides Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Evan Meek RP 39% 45% 16% Frank Williams Derrick Turnbow Sammy Stewart Joel Hanrahan RP 37% 49% 14% Paul Shuey Jeff Little Bryan Harvey Ross Ohlendorf SP 19% 58% 22% Todd Stottlemyre Pete Smith Rick Helling James McDonald SP 24% 57% 19% Jim Gott Lee Tunnell Dustin McGowan Chris Resop RP 12% 47% 41% Todd Wellemeyer Jack Meyer Calvin Schiraldi Chan Ho Park RP 11% 40% 49% Ted Power Joe Boever Matt Herges Wil Ledezma RP 10% 38% 52% Greg Cadaret Scott Sauerbeck Kevin Tolar Jose Ascanio RP 8% 39% 53% J.J. Trujillo Dan Hubbs Will Cunnane Paul Maholm SP 10% 52% 38% John Halama John Rheinecker Scott Karl Brendan Donnelly RP 16% 31% 52% Greg Harris Hector Carrasco Doug Bair Kevin Hart SP 4% 31% 65% John Burke Joel Peralta Craig McMurtry Rudy Owens SP 8% 42% 49% Blaine Beatty Brian Anderson Atlee Hammaker Zach Duke SP 4% 33% 63% Mike Maroth Rick Honeycutt Brian Shouse Charlie Morton SP 2% 27% 71% Jimmy Haynes Tim Redding Steve Kelly Justin Thomas RP 1% 22% 77% Mark Tranbarger Brandon Bowe Scott Wiegandt Chris Jakubauskas SP 5% 22% 73% Mark Knudson Lary Sorensen Clay Condrey Vinnie Chulk RP 4% 18% 78% Bobby Munoz Mark Small Jason Childers Jeff Karstens SP 3% 23% 74% Ryan Franklin Justin Reid Kris Wilson Brian Bass RP 0% 11% 89% Andy Mitchell Jeff Heaverlo Hansel Izquierdo Chris Leroux RP 1% 17% 83% Kelvin Jimenez Greg Bartley Erik Schullstrom Justin Wilson SP 1% 14% 85% Micah Bowie Phil Dumatrait Jordan Pals Brad Lincoln SP 0% 15% 85% Terry Gilmore Scott Lewis Shannon Withem Bryan Morris SP 1% 13% 86% Mitch Talbot Brian Moehler Rick Sutcliffe Danny Moskos RP 1% 9% 90% Philip Barzilla Mike Williams Justin Lamber Joe Martinez SP 1% 13% 87% Mike Thurman Joel Pineiro Don August Steven Jackson RP 0% 6% 94% Jason Karnuth Jim Czajkowski Bryan Corey Brian Burres SP 0% 8% 92% Rick Krivda Chris Peters Brian Abraham Michael Crotta SP 0% 7% 93% A.J. Sager Nate Cornejo Doug Waechter Derek Hankins SP 0% 3% 97% Steve Finch Ron Jensen Brian Sweeney Donald Veal SP 1% 10% 89% Mark McLemore Morris Madden Andy Pratt Daniel McCutchen SP 1% 6% 93% Francisco Oliveras Steve Ellsworth Ryan Franklin Dana Eveland SP 0% 4% 96% Jason Cromer Bruce Ruffin Jeff Mutis Anthony Claggett RP 0% 4% 96% Gerrit Simpson Jose Segura Jeremy Salyers Jeremy Powell SP 1% 9% 90% Dennis Springer Chris Nichting Jim Barr Ramon Aguero RP 0% 6% 94% Mike Trombley Don Timberlake Jose Segura Tim Alderson SP 0% 2% 97% Dave Johnson Jaime Navarro Allen Davis Jared Hughes SP 0% 1% 99% Edward Valdez Nick Masset Sonny Garcia Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Andrew McCutchen 30% 33% 14% 27% 37% 5% 11% 62% Pedro Alvarez 5% 8% 32% 11% 6% 42% 10% 0% Neil Walker 11% 3% 14% 26% 12% 6% 3% 1% Jose Tabata 31% 11% 2% 8% 10% 0% 1% 53% Ryan Doumit 9% 5% 8% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Garrett Jones 5% 2% 9% 6% 1% 13% 2% 3% Steven Pearce 4% 5% 5% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% John Bowker 6% 4% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% Tony Sanchez 17% 24% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Lastings Milledge 15% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% Delwyn Young 10% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brandon Moss 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% Brian Myrow 1% 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Alex Presley 3% 0% 1% 0% 53% 0% 0% 0% Chris Snyder 0% 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Ronny Cedeno 4% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Erik Kratz 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jim Negrych 4% 3% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Jonathan Van Every 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kevin Melillo 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Chase d’Arnaud 0% 1% 0% 5% 39% 0% 0% 29% Pedro Ciriaco 7% 0% 0% 1% 17% 0% 0% 25% Andy LaRoche 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gorkys Hernandez 1% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 6% Mitch Jones 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kris Watts 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Brian Friday 1% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% Jason Jaramillo 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Argenis Diaz 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Evan Meek 32% 80% 29% 0% 83% Joel Hanrahan 30% 77% 98% 0% 81% Ross Ohlendorf 3% 44% 2% 1% 44% James McDonald 6% 47% 12% 0% 74% Chris Resop 9% 53% 29% 0% 80% Chan Ho Park 8% 44% 10% 5% 68% Wil Ledezma 7% 40% 62% 0% 79% Jose Ascanio 8% 38% 22% 1% 72% Paul Maholm 1% 27% 0% 5% 83% Brendan Donnelly 16% 39% 25% 2% 68% Kevin Hart 3% 24% 13% 0% 70% Rudy Owens 1% 21% 1% 44% 28% Zach Duke 1% 12% 0% 17% 39% Charlie Morton 0% 7% 1% 0% 56% Justin Thomas 1% 13% 2% 0% 41% Chris Jakubauskas 4% 22% 1% 9% 51% Vinnie Chulk 2% 16% 3% 2% 58% Jeff Karstens 1% 7% 0% 15% 15% Brian Bass 0% 6% 0% 0% 68% Chris Leroux 1% 9% 1% 0% 65% Justin Wilson 0% 3% 4% 0% 49% Brad Lincoln 0% 2% 0% 8% 15% Bryan Morris 0% 3% 0% 0% 52% Danny Moskos 0% 7% 1% 0% 64% Joe Martinez 0% 3% 0% 1% 54% Steven Jackson 0% 3% 0% 0% 40% Brian Burres 0% 2% 0% 0% 29% Michael Crotta 0% 1% 0% 7% 76% Derek Hankins 0% 1% 0% 0% 20% Donald Veal 0% 3% 7% 0% 36% Daniel McCutchen 1% 2% 0% 4% 4% Dana Eveland 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% Anthony Claggett 0% 3% 0% 0% 44% Jeremy Powell 0% 3% 1% 4% 28% Ramon Aguero 0% 4% 0% 0% 59% Tim Alderson 0% 0% 0% 2% 13% Jared Hughes 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 07, 2010 at 08:03 PM | 46 comment(s)
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1. charlie Posted: November 07, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3685560)The Pirates didn't play Texas this year, and if they appeared on national TV I missed it, but still. I either need to start paying more attention to baseball, or Pittsburgh needs to get better.
Edit: Check that, I have certainly heard of Lastings Milledge, though I didn't know he'd washed up in Pittsburgh. And I had a vague sense of who Cedeno and Doumit were. I guess there's hope.
Really? McCutcheon, Alvarez and Tabata were all big time prospects.
Just need to know two names Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez,(not to mention Tabata) but if you don't know those two it's somewhat shocking to see you on these boards. They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense, looking at it positionally and by ops(age in paranethese)
c Doumit(30) 99
1b Jones(30) 101
2b Walker(25) 105
ss Cedeno(28) 81
3b Alvarez(24) 116
rf Milledge(26) 94
cf McCutchen(24)118
rf Tabata (22) 99
this is a team that last season finished last in the Nl in scoring, but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average. I'll take the over on Tabata and Milledgeon their OPS+. They really do need to improve at firstbase(have no idea what they have in the minors, and Jones is a year removed from a spectacular half season, so they'll probably roll with him)
Just need to know two names Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, but if you don't know those two it's somewhat shocking to see you on these boards. They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense, looking at it positionally and by ops(age in paranethese)
c Doumit(30) 99
1b Jones(30) 101
2b Walker(25) 105
ss Cedeno(28) 81
3b Alvarez(24) 116
rf Milledge(26) 94
cf McCutchen(24)118
rf Tabata (22) 99
this is a team that last season finished last in the Nl in scoring, but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average. I'll take the over on Tabata and Milledgeon their OPS+. They really do need to improve at firstbase(have no idea what they have in the minors, and Jones is a year removed from a spectacular half season, so they'll probably roll with him)
Gruesome trivia: the Pirates have had just one 15-game winner since 1992. Who?
While it is somewhat off-topic, I want my first post of the year to be me saying I was clearly wrong on Zobrist last year, but it was not completely due to factors he could control (his skill). His back issues were fairly well documented, which makes it pretty hard to play, let alone still play in 150+ games. His ISO was abysmal and his BABIP dropped significantly while his peripherals stayed relatively consistent (showing he still had a sound approach at the plate). I never thought he would be a 8+ WAR player but he still managed to post 3+ WAR, and I think he can be more.
I don't have much to say about the Pirates' projections above but wanted to get that out of the way and say that I'm excited to see the upcoming projections, and what the ZiPS disk may look like with more emphasis on splits and the help of DMB.
I am curious how you determine the order of projections though?
Thanks as always Dan.
My first thought was Oliver Perez which proved to be wrong. I had to look it up, definitely sad seeing who their only 15 game winner was in that time period (if that truly is the only one).
Neagle?
The rest of the NL is playing the world's smallest violin for you. It must be so hard to root for the Phils.
You said that the process will be quicker this year with DMB doing the disk...does that mean we'll see a smaller amount of time between each team?
That's a pretty nice Alvarez projection, especially given he strikes out at least once before he's even had a chance to brush his teeth. :-)
And I seriously doubt Neil Walker plays nearly 1800 games in the majors. (You'll do a little time in hell for making Pirates fans look at that LaRoche projection.)
They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense
Alas, it's basically the same bench. I wouldn't call them a _good_ young team offensively ... but, yes, nice to see them above-average at some defensive positions which they might be able to supplement with decent players at the corners at some point. Anyway, they might score more than Houston and out-OPS+ the Cubs (ack!) this year but they'll be among the lowest-scoring teams in the NL.
but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average
A curious way of putting it. Based just on their starters, most teams "should" finish above-average. Every team's offense gets dragged down by their bench.
But yes, some hope here, especially in the Sanchez projection. Offensively the young Pirates project as above-average at C, 2B, 3B and CF and while Tabata doesn't project as a hitter (yet) the defense gives him a boost. Unfortunately, Walker and Alvarez looked pretty bad with the glove last year.
And the pitching projects as horrible. By projection, their intended 5-man rotation will have 2 replacement-level guys in it. Still, last year the Pirates got 130 starts from guys with an ERA+ below 85 ... 2011 can't really be any worse I guess.
So I won't guarantee them 100 losses and I probably won't declare them the worst team in baseball for 2011. Progress!
What if it came from a Mets fan?
Church and Iwamura and Crosby are all gone, though, and you have to think that even the Pirates could find some guys who could outperform them.
Amen.
I'm keeping Alvarez. That's a pretty impressive projection. One thing that sort of stands out to me is the rbi total. I know rbi's are not an important stat, but I'm a little surprised that a projection system has it that high for any player, let alone a guy who's going to be batting in the Pirates line up. Is that normal?
It looks like they should move Alvarez to 1B and Walker to 3B and get some slick fielder to play 2B.
Ding ding ding ding. Unlike Pittsburgh, we have a winner.
At BD, we've been saying this for months. Not that anybody's going to listen. O-Dawg would be a perfect fit.
Yup. With the possible exception of the current guy, White is easily the team's best scouting director of the last 25 years, and he didn't break anything important in his brief time as interim GM.
Given that he's a high-BIP pitcher in front of a crap defense, I think that's actually a pretty generous line.
What's BD?
Bucs Dugout.
And I certainly thought Steve Pearce would have a bit more OBP in his projection. Oh well.
-- MWE
This paragraph appears to imply that eye-gouging is a good thing, which I'm going to have to disagree with.
Russlan is part of the BTF Mets Army of Darkness, steagles. (Although he's one of the optimists, like me.)
Great work as usual. Could we get a Sean Gallagher prediction? He finished the season in Pittsburgh after coming over from San Diego.
Thanks again!
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