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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Monday, November 08, 20102011 ZiPS Projections - San Diego PadresThe way the season ended was extremely disappointing, but the Padres should still come away from the 2010 season pleased with how the team performed.
The bullpen was ridiculous for most of the season and while the drop in offense and the low park factor meant the non-Latos starters were quite a bit overrated in the rare instance the national media mentioned the Padres, the bullpen earned its plaudits. It kind of reminded me of the early-aughts Angel bullpens, which featured low-cost pickup after low-cost pickup turning the late innings into Battle of Verdun reenactments.
Now, can they repeat it? Hard to tell at this point with Adrian Gonzalez’s short-term and long-term status being unknown. Well, short-term status at least - his long-term status probably involves him making large sacks of money in a different city.
One starter that wasn’t overrated, as reference above, was Mat Latos. While I had him translated in the low-mid 3s for the 2009 season, ZiPS was a bit skeptical and pegged Latos as a good, not great starter. Well, the data came in, and ZiPS has moved into pro-Latos territory.
One thing the team needs to sort out is they’ve accumulated an impressive logjam of adequate-nothing-special corner outfielders under contract. The team isn’t likely to be a big spender anytime soon, so it’s very important for the team to figure out who they want to trust in the mid-term and who of the remaining have trade value.
Just as a reminder (since we’re early in the offseason) that players are listed with their most recent teams where practicable. So Jon Garland, foolishly turning down nearly $7 million to play in the league’s best environment for pitchers, is still listed below.
Next up: A’s
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Adrian Gonzalez L 1B 29 .293 .394 .522 155 567 94 166 32 1 32 100 93 117 0 0 152 Chase Headley B 3B 27 .274 .342 .418 160 594 80 163 35 4 14 68 58 152 11 3 110 Ryan Ludwick R RF 32 .258 .329 .445 139 481 65 124 26 2 20 75 47 123 2 4 113 Will Venable L RF 28 .255 .323 .407 145 487 71 124 20 6 14 58 46 139 18 4 101 Oscar Salazar R LF 33 .268 .317 .413 113 317 41 85 18 2 8 49 24 48 2 3 101 Mike Baxter L RF 26 .259 .328 .397 147 526 74 136 29 7 10 65 51 102 11 7 101 Matt Stairs L LF 40 .209 .311 .429 78 91 12 19 5 0 5 14 13 29 1 0 103 Aaron Cunningham R LF 25 .257 .321 .394 144 505 72 130 29 5 10 65 42 128 9 8 98 James Darnell R 3B 24 .246 .325 .385 133 509 62 125 29 3 12 63 56 112 4 3 97 Scott Hairston R LF 31 .240 .306 .395 110 337 41 81 17 1 11 41 29 76 6 1 93 Miguel Tejada R SS 37 .271 .306 .383 143 579 71 157 30 1 11 65 22 59 3 2 90 Chris Denorfia R LF 30 .258 .305 .381 114 388 54 100 19 4 7 41 27 60 10 5 90 Nick Hundley R C 27 .245 .302 .401 99 339 40 83 19 2 10 47 29 86 2 3 94 Tony Gwynn L CF 28 .254 .329 .335 131 394 54 100 13 5 3 27 43 65 18 6 85 Kyle Blanks R LF 24 .222 .321 .370 103 351 42 78 15 2 11 51 43 119 2 1 92 Jerry Hairston R SS 35 .254 .310 .369 108 355 50 90 16 2 7 40 26 46 9 5 88 Jarrett Hoffpauir R 2B 28 .243 .316 .365 121 436 46 106 23 3 8 43 46 45 4 2 89 Everth Cabrera B SS 24 .248 .322 .334 123 431 62 107 19 6 2 43 42 111 31 12 83 Kyle Phillips L 1B 27 .261 .309 .355 90 318 28 83 13 1 5 33 22 60 0 0 84 David Eckstein R 2B 36 .268 .324 .328 111 411 49 110 22 0 1 33 27 34 5 1 82 Yorvit Torrealba R C 32 .254 .319 .355 84 287 28 73 14 0 5 33 25 58 3 3 87 Logan Forsythe R 2B 24 .235 .340 .321 133 507 81 119 23 3 5 47 77 142 13 4 86 Luis Durango B CF 25 .271 .345 .301 143 495 73 134 9 3 0 30 56 84 29 14 82 Cedric Hunter L CF 23 .253 .297 .352 160 651 90 165 28 9 6 67 41 60 12 6 80 Craig Stansberry R 3B 29 .238 .314 .344 112 378 49 90 18 2 6 31 40 81 6 6 83 Wily Mo Pena R 1B 29 .244 .287 .350 47 160 16 39 5 0 4 19 10 45 0 1 76 Chris Stewart R C 29 .234 .303 .326 82 261 26 61 13 1 3 23 22 38 1 1 75 Matt Antonelli R 2B 26 .216 .309 .322 90 329 46 71 13 2 6 30 40 71 6 3 76 Sean Kazmar R SS 26 .237 .289 .325 138 493 58 117 21 2 6 48 35 92 7 2 70 Sawyer Carroll L RF 25 .226 .300 .333 129 483 59 109 24 5 6 58 51 152 5 6 76 Dusty Ryan R C 26 .200 .296 .332 92 295 29 59 13 1 8 32 39 118 2 1 74 Eric Munson L 1B 33 .194 .295 .311 60 196 19 38 8 0 5 24 26 46 0 1 69 Kellen Kulbacki L LF 25 .210 .280 .324 65 238 26 50 10 1 5 25 22 58 1 2 67 Josh Barfield R 2B 28 .239 .263 .317 93 331 32 79 15 1 3 31 11 62 6 3 61 Nick Green R SS 32 .213 .263 .329 96 310 31 66 14 2 6 33 18 81 2 4 64 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Adrian Gonzalez AV/86 Chase Headley VG/94 FR/113 Ryan Ludwick AV/101 PO/121 AV/57 Will Venable VG/118 FR/183 VG/98 Oscar Salazar FR/111 PO/133 PO/133 FR/118 FR/102 Mike Baxter AV/91 PO/148 AV/102 PO/124 AV/110 Matt Stairs PO/102 PO/107 Aaron Cunningham AV/179 FR/179 FR/136 James Darnell AV/181 Scott Hairston AV/70 FR/157 FR/114 Miguel Tejada AV/112 FR/83 Chris Denorfia AV/89 FR/95 AV/114 Nick Hundley AV Tony Gwynn VG/119 EX/158 VG/119 Kyle Blanks FR/109 FR/109 FR/109 Jerry Hairston AV/90 AV/133 AV/101 AV/98 FR/128 101/ Jarrett Hoffpauir AV/145 AV/119 FR/145 Everth Cabrera AV/152 AV/179 Kyle Phillips AV AV/107 FR/126 David Eckstein AV/33 FR/123 Yorvit Torrealba AV Logan Forsythe FR/160 VG/147 Luis Durango VG/195 VG/172 Cedric Hunter VG/135 AV/104 Craig Stansberry AV/111 VG/141 FR/134 Wily Mo Pena FR/148 PO/145 PO/145 Chris Stewart VG Matt Antonelli AV/120 Sean Kazmar AV/114 FR/112 Sawyer Carroll FR/142 AV/158 AV/158 Dusty Ryan FR #REF! Eric Munson FR AV/152 PR/124 Kellen Kulbacki FR/132 FR/132 Josh Barfield VG/113 AV/130 AV/98 FR/117 Nick Green FR/117 FR/120 FR/148 FR/112 FR/112 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Mat Latos R 23 3.06 11 6 23 22 126.7 100 43 12 39 124 123 Clayton Richard L 27 4.00 10 10 34 29 175.3 174 78 15 67 124 94 Jon Garland R 31 4.05 12 12 31 31 191.3 191 86 19 73 114 93 Tim Stauffer R 29 4.16 5 6 32 15 101.7 105 47 9 36 71 91 Chris Young R 32 4.18 3 3 10 10 51.7 44 24 7 25 44 90 Simon Castro R 23 4.41 7 9 28 27 136.7 137 67 14 57 102 85 Wade LeBlanc L 26 4.52 9 12 31 29 163.3 164 82 23 58 129 83 Kevin Correia R 30 4.52 8 11 29 27 153.3 156 77 17 60 115 83 Cory Luebke L 26 4.71 6 9 24 23 124.3 130 65 15 47 82 80 Will Inman R 24 4.95 4 6 17 17 92.7 96 51 13 41 60 76 Cesar Ramos L 27 5.38 5 10 34 19 110.3 129 66 11 56 66 70 Radhames Liz R 27 5.43 5 10 28 23 122.7 140 74 17 58 87 69 Jeremy Hefner R 25 5.44 7 14 30 29 152.3 174 92 20 69 98 69 Josh Geer R 28 5.79 6 14 30 27 168.0 209 108 28 46 81 65 Nathan Culp L 26 6.03 5 13 30 26 143.3 194 96 18 42 56 63 Cesar Carrillo R 27 6.23 4 12 25 25 124.3 152 86 18 65 61 61 Tyler Lumsden L 28 6.73 3 11 29 17 99.0 132 74 11 67 36 56 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Mike Adams R 32 2.70 3 1 57 0 56.7 43 17 4 20 64 140 Heath Bell R 33 2.74 6 2 63 0 65.7 52 20 4 26 76 138 Luke Gregerson R 27 3.07 7 3 71 0 73.3 57 25 6 27 83 123 Ernesto Frieri R 25 3.36 4 3 68 0 67.0 51 25 6 39 74 112 Joe Thatcher L 29 3.38 3 2 68 0 53.3 47 20 4 19 58 112 Edward Mujica R 27 3.64 3 3 61 0 76.7 71 31 10 17 71 104 Ryan Webb R 25 3.86 4 4 66 1 77.0 78 33 6 27 58 98 Scott Munter R 31 4.62 3 4 48 0 60.3 62 31 5 34 40 82 Adam Russell R 28 4.65 5 7 59 0 69.7 70 36 6 42 55 81 Luis Perdomo R 27 4.66 3 5 54 1 73.3 72 38 8 42 52 81 Mike Koplove R 34 4.74 1 2 39 0 49.3 49 26 6 28 36 79 Greg Burke R 28 4.82 3 4 59 0 65.3 67 35 10 28 50 78 Aaron Poreda L 24 5.53 2 3 51 1 57.0 49 35 5 72 51 68 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Adrian Gonzalez .276 .362 .477 2282 8533 1241 2358 462 19 405 1337 1126 1586 1 130 Chase Headley .266 .330 .396 2089 7761 956 2065 420 38 171 845 702 1703 134 101 Ryan Ludwick .257 .326 .442 1334 4539 604 1168 246 15 188 709 415 1069 26 107 Will Venable .253 .320 .397 1188 3950 556 1000 157 41 110 464 368 1017 127 98 David Eckstein .278 .341 .350 1555 5954 806 1654 279 20 37 464 430 488 132 86 Miguel Tejada .281 .329 .441 2560 10128 1436 2849 551 27 338 1487 605 1216 91 104 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Jon Garland 185 172 1 4.27 490 467 2916 3012 1385 341 1035 1617 101 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 74% 19% 5% 2% 0% Willie Aikens Boog Powell Jason Giambi Chase Headley 3B 21% 34% 24% 15% 7% Mark Teahen Travis Fryman Brook Jacoby Ryan Ludwick RF 12% 25% 21% 22% 20% Lee Stevens Dean Palmer Geoff Jenkins Will Venable RF 7% 22% 22% 25% 24% Michael Tucker Pat Sheridan Gary Ward Oscar Salazar LF 2% 11% 16% 26% 45% Darnell Coles Herb Perry Jeff Conine Mike Baxter RF 4% 14% 17% 25% 40% Scott Lusader Terrence Long Adam Riggs Matt Stairs LF 11% 17% 16% 21% 34% Jeff Manto Alan Zinter Jay Buhner Aaron Cunningham LF 1% 8% 14% 26% 52% Ivan Calderon LaVel Freeman Adam Riggs James Darnell 3B 4% 15% 22% 28% 32% Kory Casto Eric Duncan Tim Hulett Scott Hairston LF 2% 10% 15% 26% 47% John Valle Brandon Berger Matt Mieske Miguel Tejada SS 11% 15% 29% 28% 17% Frank Malzone Cookie Rojas Cal Ripken Chris Denorfia LF 1% 5% 9% 20% 66% Ira Smith Garey Ingram Dallas Williams Nick Hundley C 7% 25% 25% 25% 17% Jeff Grotewold Bill Hayes Humberto Cota Tony Gwynn CF 3% 8% 23% 34% 32% Greg Tubbs Eric Owens Bruce Dostal Kyle Blanks LF 2% 6% 9% 19% 64% Ben Shelton Jeff Hermann Jim Betzsold Jerry Hairston SS 10% 14% 27% 28% 21% Billy Cox Dickie Thon Manny Alexander Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B 7% 10% 16% 27% 39% Steve Lombardozzi Joe Dillon Rico Rossy Everth Cabrera SS 8% 19% 32% 25% 15% Harry Chappas Bob Meacham Mariano Duncan Kyle Phillips 1B 0% 1% 2% 14% 83% Jim Bowie Mike Eylward Hunter Bledsoe David Eckstein 2B 4% 7% 13% 27% 49% Joe Stripp Cookie Rojas Jim Gantner Yorvit Torrealba C 4% 15% 21% 30% 29% Charlie Berry Robert Machado Juan Espino Logan Forsythe 2B 6% 10% 16% 28% 39% Dan Cholowsky Joe Lawrence Timothy Hulett Luis Durango CF 2% 4% 14% 31% 49% Alex Cole Willy Taveras Luis Mercedes Cedric Hunter CF 2% 3% 9% 24% 63% Clay Timpner Alexis Rios John Roberts Craig Stansberry 3B 0% 3% 7% 17% 73% Jason Maxwell Luis Rivera Casey Benjamin Wily Mo Pena 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% Juan Richardson Jeremy Ware Alberto Concepcion Chris Stewart C 1% 5% 10% 27% 57% Dave Van Gorder Dave Toth Doug Newstrom Matt Antonelli 2B 3% 2% 5% 12% 78% James Guerrero Taber Lee Jason Camilli Sean Kazmar SS 2% 3% 10% 26% 59% Joey Aragon Kevin Polcovich Wilson Delgado Sawyer Carroll RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Jim Beswick Randy Salava Mike Neill Dusty Ryan C 2% 5% 10% 27% 57% Henry Mercedes David Ross Dan Whitmer Eric Munson 1B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Jody Davis Dave May Ryan McGuire Kellen Kulbacki LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97%Garrick Haltiwanger Gerad Cawhorn Roger Haggerty Josh Barfield 2B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Chris Lemonis Jace Brewer Luis Garcia Nick Green SS 1% 1% 3% 6% 90% Trace Coquillette Kevin Baez Steve Scarsone Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Mike Adams RP 67% 28% 4% Joe Nathan Scot Shields Robb Nen Heath Bell RP 62% 34% 5% Rich Gossage Paul Shuey Francisco Cordero Mat Latos SP 79% 20% 1% Roger Clemens Pedro Martinez Jake Peavy Luke Gregerson RP 53% 40% 7% Xavier Hernandez Tom Niedenfuer Ron Davis Ernesto Frieri RP 32% 49% 19% Eric Plunk Bobby Castillo Mike Jackson Joe Thatcher RP 36% 47% 17% Willie Hernandez Dan Plesac Paul Assenmacher Edward Mujica RP 18% 50% 31% Jose Melendez Julio Mateo Luis DeLeon Ryan Webb RP 9% 53% 38% Manuel Corpas Julian Tavarez Franquelis Osoria Clayton Richard SP 16% 59% 26% Andy Pettitte Zane Smith Chris Hammond Jon Garland SP 13% 59% 29% Jim Slaton Andy Hawkins Kirk McCaskill Tim Stauffer SP 4% 36% 60% Rick Lysander Sean Bergman Doug Brocail Chris Young SP 20% 36% 44% Jim Stoops Robert Person Mario Soto Simon Castro SP 6% 43% 51% Kelly Downs Brian Bannister Mike Maddux Wade LeBlanc SP 3% 34% 63% Rheal Cormier Lance Painter Patrick Misch Kevin Correia SP 2% 34% 64% Paul Wilson Chris Brock Chris Carpenter Scott Munter RP 3% 19% 79% Jake Robbins Jerry Johnson Tim Corcoran Adam Russell RP 1% 18% 80% Ryan Henderson Gabriel Dehoyos Dan Reichert Luis Perdomo RP 1% 16% 83% Tony Dougherty Mike DeJean Jamie Emiliano Cory Luebke SP 2% 28% 71% John Rheinecker Eddie Priest Tom Urbani Mike Koplove RP 5% 16% 79% David Lee Pat Mahomes Jason Childers Greg Burke RP 1% 12% 88% Mark Guerra Erik Bennett Jack Hardy Will Inman SP 2% 19% 79% Shad Williams Brent Hansen Clay Christiansen Cesar Ramos SP 0% 5% 95% Jason Cromer Heath Murray Jeff Granger Radhames Liz SP 0% 4% 95% Mark Nussbeck Pete Janicki Lou Pote Jeremy Hefner SP 0% 3% 97% Rich Yett Sonny Garcia Kevin Olsen Aaron Poreda RP 0% 4% 96% Onan Masaoka Matt Garza Brian Snyder Josh Geer SP 0% 1% 99% Mark Johnson Heath Totten Mark DiFelice Nathan Culp SP 0% 0% 100% Randy Marshall Brian Shouse Mike Ramsey Cesar Carrillo SP 0% 0% 100% Edward Valdez Bryan Eversgerd Hatuey Mendoza Tyler Lumsden SP 0% 0% 100% Terrell Wade Kevin Rawitzer Rich Rundles Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Adrian Gonzalez 37% 69% 64% 6% 0% 58% 68% 0% Chase Headley 13% 10% 3% 13% 3% 2% 4% 3% Ryan Ludwick 5% 5% 10% 1% 1% 7% 7% 0% Will Venable 3% 3% 1% 0% 10% 0% 1% 4% Oscar Salazar 12% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Mike Baxter 4% 4% 1% 2% 25% 0% 2% 0% Matt Stairs 3% 12% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% Aaron Cunningham 4% 2% 1% 1% 9% 0% 0% 0% James Darnell 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% Scott Hairston 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Miguel Tejada 11% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 2% 0% Chris Denorfia 4% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% Nick Hundley 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Tony Gwynn 3% 5% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 6% Kyle Blanks 0% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Jerry Hairston 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Jarrett Hoffpauir 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Everth Cabrera 2% 3% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 51% Kyle Phillips 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% David Eckstein 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Yorvit Torrealba 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Logan Forsythe 0% 8% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% Luis Durango 11% 13% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 44% Cedric Hunter 2% 0% 1% 2% 40% 0% 0% 0% Craig Stansberry 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wily Mo Pena 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Chris Stewart 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Antonelli 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Sean Kazmar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Sawyer Carroll 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% Dusty Ryan 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Eric Munson 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Kellen Kulbacki 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Barfield 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nick Green 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Mike Adams 67% 94% 96% 7% 88% Heath Bell 62% 93% 98% 2% 95% Mat Latos 42% 92% 74% 7% 75% Luke Gregerson 46% 88% 94% 2% 83% Ernesto Frieri 25% 76% 93% 0% 72% Joe Thatcher 36% 77% 90% 7% 91% Edward Mujica 14% 62% 61% 61% 44% Ryan Webb 6% 48% 6% 4% 93% Clayton Richard 2% 37% 2% 1% 90% Jon Garland 2% 34% 1% 1% 68% Tim Stauffer 2% 29% 2% 2% 81% Chris Young 7% 33% 34% 0% 46% Simon Castro 1% 17% 6% 0% 66% Wade LeBlanc 0% 11% 12% 1% 20% Kevin Correia 0% 9% 6% 0% 56% Scott Munter 2% 16% 4% 0% 84% Adam Russell 1% 15% 16% 0% 87% Luis Perdomo 0% 10% 4% 0% 57% Cory Luebke 0% 8% 0% 1% 47% Mike Koplove 4% 17% 10% 0% 49% Greg Burke 1% 9% 10% 1% 26% Will Inman 0% 6% 0% 0% 32% Cesar Ramos 0% 1% 0% 0% 72% Radhames Liz 0% 1% 1% 0% 32% Jeremy Hefner 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% Aaron Poreda 0% 3% 45% 0% 81% Josh Geer 0% 0% 0% 15% 9% Nathan Culp 0% 0% 0% 11% 42% Cesar Carrillo 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% Tyler Lumsden 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 08, 2010 at 03:26 PM | 25 comment(s)
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1. tell me when i'm telling 57i66135 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3685848)i'm gonna ask about him again right now, because he only OPS'd .702 in 2010, and yet, his 2011 ZiPS shot up 58 points above that performance.
what's going on here?
They would seem to be the team that could gain most from Carl Crawford, even if they overpay. With a little offense, they could be dangerous, and Crawford's game seems less likely to be hurt by Petco. It would also help them re-up Gonzalez.
Actually, he almost exactly hit his projection - a 100 OPS+ was projected and he had a 97.
What's different this year is that ZiPS is much less worried about his downside and he was underestimated last year thanks to a bug that was overpenalizing some high-BABIP players (Headley and Snider most especially).
Guys like Liz, Carrillo, and Castro project for more innings but have never thrown as many as they even project for in the majors, or haven't even pitched in the majors. Carrillo has much more injury risk than Latos, if that's the reason.
Playing time should be the part of all projections taken the least seriously - it's just that it's better than simply expressing everything as a rate.
just curious, but how might the bug you're talking about affect high BB players such as logan forsythe? it's seemed to me that minor league translations regress BBs very heavily, turning every BB that is taken away into an out, but it looks to me like this tends to be unduly pessimistic, at least as it relates to players with elite BB rates.
do you have any thoughts on that? am i completely off the mark on this?
There's not a whole lot of options for those comparison algorithms when you come up at age 22 and post a 2.92 ERA while striking out more than a guy an inning.
Yup. ZiPS does take pay attention to how many comps there are and how good the comps are. There's just not much to dislike in Latos's professional history, either - he went from short-season ball to dominating AA and AAA in a very short time.
Insanely good comps for Mike Adams too; Bell not doing too shabby.
I think that offense is worse than the Pirates. Same set of OPS+ projections but the Pirates are all at C, 2B, 3B and CF while the Padres have 9 corner OFs with a 100 OPS+.
The Kyle Blanks projection does not suggest "Adrian Gonzalez replacement."
I like the bullpen, tho.
Anyone know if this has any legs?
Thanks.
Do you think it's possible to have projections on Bartlett and Hudson?
Thanks!
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