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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Tuesday, January 04, 20112011 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco GiantsI’m going to keep my comment very short here as I have a nasty cold/flu and the insane amounts of cough medicine and decongestant are making me really foggy.
ZiPS is more bullish on the Giants offense than it has been in years - there are only a few minor league hitters with high upside, but there are a lot that should provide excellent depth, like Neal and Bond. The starting pitching depth is horrid, however, and the Giants would be smart to bring a couple of minor league free agents in - “all our awesome starting pitchers stay healthy” is always a terrible plan. Todd Wellemeyer, gone since mid-summer, shouldn’t rank that high on your starting options.
No doubt I’ll get grief again for the Runzler projection, but again, it’s not my fault that pitchers with comical walk rates have very large downside risk. Runzler’s had success in the majors so far, but the reality is that pitchers with control that Daniel Cabrera can sadly shake his head at are bad bets.
Oh yeah, ZiPS loves Brandon Belt and at least in the short term has him as the best 1B prospect in baseball.
Next up: Mariners
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Buster Posey R C 24 .297 .366 .479 156 582 92 173 35 4 21 92 60 94 3 2 125 Pablo Sandoval B 3B 24 .295 .346 .474 156 586 82 173 40 4 19 86 46 81 4 3 118 Aubrey Huff L 1B 34 .273 .349 .465 142 523 79 143 34 3 20 83 59 85 4 2 117 Brandon Belt L 1B 23 .266 .357 .440 136 516 79 137 32 8 14 80 73 106 18 9 113 Cody Ross R CF 30 .269 .318 .450 145 498 65 134 30 3 18 68 31 103 6 2 104 Pat Burrell R LF 34 .239 .342 .438 123 402 50 96 21 1 19 63 64 110 0 1 108 Andres Torres B CF 33 .252 .319 .428 118 404 62 102 25 8 10 41 38 103 17 5 99 Nate Schierholtz L RF 27 .273 .319 .431 140 355 53 97 22 5 8 40 21 59 7 4 99 Miguel Tejada R SS 37 .287 .319 .411 143 581 79 167 34 1 12 72 20 56 3 2 95 Jose Guillen R RF 35 .260 .312 .424 123 453 50 118 22 2 16 68 25 84 1 0 96 Mark DeRosa R LF 36 .252 .324 .401 88 314 44 79 15 1 10 47 30 66 2 1 94 Thomas Neal R LF 23 .259 .325 .397 154 595 81 154 36 2 14 78 48 129 6 5 93 Francisco Peguero R CF 23 .292 .315 .400 126 527 68 154 18 12 5 64 14 98 29 20 91 Freddy Sanchez R 2B 33 .278 .320 .386 123 485 63 135 27 2 7 48 28 67 2 2 89 Travis Ishikawa L 1B 27 .249 .312 .407 131 329 45 82 18 2 10 49 28 84 3 2 92 Ryan Rohlinger R SS 27 .255 .317 .386 126 451 61 115 28 2 9 59 34 93 4 2 88 Aaron Rowand R CF 33 .252 .312 .391 127 437 54 110 23 1 12 50 27 97 4 3 88 Mike Fontenot L 2B 31 .257 .319 .386 120 303 35 78 18 3 5 35 26 58 2 3 89 Edgar Renteria R SS 34 .265 .318 .362 102 370 45 98 17 2 5 37 30 55 5 1 82 Brock Bond B 2B 25 .267 .350 .341 128 472 77 126 22 5 1 42 53 86 10 8 87 Eugenio Velez B CF 29 .260 .304 .382 126 434 61 113 21 7 6 43 27 78 28 14 83 Conor Gillaspie L 3B 23 .265 .314 .379 154 585 69 155 30 8 7 75 42 88 0 5 86 Brett Pill R 1B 26 .256 .297 .380 152 574 70 147 35 0 12 82 29 94 5 2 80 Tyler Graham R CF 27 .258 .304 .323 106 365 56 94 14 2 2 32 20 77 30 12 69 Johnny Monell L C 25 .228 .288 .366 106 382 43 87 20 3 9 46 31 101 5 3 75 Emmanuel Burriss B SS 26 .264 .314 .314 104 363 49 96 11 2 1 28 22 46 19 9 70 Charlie Culberson R 2B 22 .243 .289 .345 156 617 82 150 26 5 9 57 33 139 18 8 70 Joe Borchard B RF 32 .221 .283 .368 94 321 40 71 17 3 8 35 25 93 2 2 73 Eli Whiteside R C 31 .230 .277 .354 64 178 21 41 8 1 4 19 9 47 1 1 68 Darren Ford R CF 25 .224 .288 .325 131 526 76 118 19 8 6 41 44 149 36 15 65 Brandon Crawford L SS 24 .226 .288 .341 119 452 56 102 20 4 8 31 35 139 6 5 68 Juan Perez R CF 24 .236 .270 .358 149 601 71 142 32 7 9 55 26 154 14 12 67 Ehire Adrianza B SS 21 .232 .295 .311 156 556 75 129 23 6 3 47 46 122 22 14 63 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Buster Posey VG AV/99 Pablo Sandoval FR AV/117 AV/85 Aubrey Huff AV/69 FR/107 FR/95 FR/97 Brandon Belt AV/126 FR/114 FR/108 Cody Ross AV/80 AV/55 AV/80 Pat Burrell FR/77 Andres Torres VG/112 VG/41 VG/81 Nate Schierholtz AV/65 Miguel Tejada FR/112 FR/83 Jose Guillen FR/103 PO/177 Mark DeRosa AV/123 FR/139 FR/86 AV/96 AV/89 Thomas Neal AV/164 AV/147 AV/147 Francisco Peguero VG/193 VG/150 Freddy Sanchez AV/68 Travis Ishikawa VG/84 Ryan Rohlinger AV/100 VG/94 FR/100 Aaron Rowand AV/81 Mike Fontenot AV/92 FR/108 PO/116 Edgar Renteria AV/95 Brock Bond AV/150 FR/117 AV/110 Eugenio Velez FR/185 VG/186 AV/192 AV/186 Conor Gillaspie AV/145 Brett Pill AV/84 PO/114 Tyler Graham AV/114 FR/90 AV/114 Johnny Monell AV FR/124 Emmanuel Burriss VG/184 FR/125 Charlie Culberson AV/120 VG/140 FR/162 Joe Borchard AV/114 FR/156 Eli Whiteside AV Darren Ford VG/144 AV/135 Brandon Crawford AV/99 Juan Perez FR/142 AV/104 AV/137 Ehire Adrianza VG/140 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Tim Lincecum R 27 2.78 17 6 32 32 213.3 172 66 14 71 246 150 Matt Cain R 26 3.25 15 8 33 33 219.0 189 79 20 70 186 129 Jonathan Sanchez L 28 3.66 12 8 32 30 172.3 141 70 18 87 183 114 Madison Bumgarner L 21 3.93 10 8 30 29 165.0 167 72 16 51 107 106 Barry Zito L 33 4.19 11 11 30 30 176.0 168 82 18 78 133 100 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Todd Wellemeyer R 32 4.93 6 8 22 19 107.7 111 59 16 50 75 85 Henry Sosa R 25 5.38 4 6 24 13 82.0 89 49 12 44 50 78 Clayton Tanner L 23 5.50 6 11 26 25 131.0 148 80 17 70 66 76 Shane Loux R 31 5.50 6 9 24 17 107.3 130 62 13 32 45 76 Matt Kinney R 34 5.58 4 7 16 15 80.7 94 50 15 26 54 75 Michael Main R 22 6.52 3 7 17 16 78.7 94 57 15 46 42 64 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Sergio Romo R 28 2.82 5 2 59 0 54.3 44 17 5 16 60 148 Brian Wilson R 29 2.86 5 2 66 0 69.3 56 22 5 26 83 146 Jeremy Affeldt L 31 3.54 3 2 64 0 61.0 55 24 5 26 57 118 Ramon Ramirez R 29 3.55 4 2 68 0 66.0 57 26 6 29 56 118 Santiago Casilla R 30 3.76 3 2 50 0 52.7 49 22 5 24 47 111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Javier Lopez L 33 3.88 2 2 63 0 51.0 50 22 4 21 32 108 Jose Casilla R 22 4.04 2 2 40 0 42.3 42 19 3 20 26 103 Dan Runzler L 26 4.10 2 2 50 0 48.3 41 22 4 34 49 102 Guillermo Mota R 37 4.14 3 3 51 0 50.0 47 23 5 21 36 101 Osiris Matos R 26 4.21 3 3 46 0 57.7 57 27 5 25 43 99 Chris Ray R 29 4.33 2 2 47 0 43.7 43 21 4 20 33 97 Geno Espineli L 27 4.33 4 4 53 0 62.3 69 30 5 19 33 96 Alex Hinshaw L 28 4.33 2 2 54 0 54.0 47 26 5 40 57 96 Waldis Joaquin R 24 4.56 3 3 39 3 53.3 52 27 5 34 42 92 Tony Pena Jr. R 30 4.78 1 2 27 0 37.7 40 20 4 18 23 87 Brandon Medders R 31 4.82 2 2 44 0 52.3 54 28 7 26 39 87 Steve Edlefsen R 26 4.93 4 6 48 0 65.7 65 36 7 46 48 85 Matt Yourkin L 29 5.16 4 7 39 11 90.7 103 52 11 40 61 81 Rafael Cova R 29 5.19 1 2 26 0 26.0 23 15 3 23 25 80 Craig Whitaker R 26 6.11 1 2 44 1 56.0 57 38 7 59 40 68 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Edgar Renteria .283 .339 .392 2459 9319 1333 2638 484 36 153 1030 800 1307 307 92 Aubrey Huff .276 .340 .464 2168 8082 1105 2231 482 40 318 1218 749 1162 49 112 Pablo Sandoval .284 .336 .453 2034 7623 1000 2166 476 50 238 1053 600 968 46 110 Pat Burrell .249 .354 .461 1989 6791 916 1693 365 19 346 1168 1101 1852 7 112 Buster Posey .285 .354 .450 1978 7378 1083 2102 416 42 240 1089 744 1084 41 115 Jose Guillen .268 .319 .434 1944 6976 861 1867 357 29 249 1042 375 1291 34 97 Aaron Rowand .268 .325 .424 1700 5606 762 1501 323 20 171 685 335 1140 77 95 Cody Ross .261 .313 .438 1493 4988 627 1303 293 27 179 686 320 1014 56 98 Freddy Sanchez .289 .326 .398 1283 4904 628 1417 289 23 67 510 256 602 20 92 Mark DeRosa .268 .337 .414 1238 3904 579 1047 208 13 112 532 364 750 24 95 Nate Schierholtz .266 .312 .411 1091 2676 373 713 166 33 52 276 157 433 38 92 Andres Torres .249 .311 .419 884 2934 434 730 177 57 69 293 252 683 106 94 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Matt Cain 205 148 0 3.50 511 509 3313 2902 1287 334 1147 2809 121 Barry Zito 199 178 0 4.05 515 512 3111 2858 1399 331 1337 2326 107 Tim Lincecum 208 107 0 3.27 429 427 2858 2347 1037 197 986 3244 127 Jonathan Sanchez 134 113 0 3.98 420 351 2037 1722 901 224 1066 2135 106 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Buster Posey C 71% 23% 5% 1% 0% Joe Torre Bill Freehan Jason Kendall Pablo Sandoval 3B 31% 32% 19% 12% 6% Carlos Baerga Ryan Zimmerman Ron Santo Aubrey Huff 1B 13% 29% 23% 25% 10% Chris Chambliss Todd Zeile George McQuinn Brandon Belt 1B 11% 26% 22% 27% 15% Elbie Fletcher Shin-Soo Choo Sid Bream Cody Ross CF 22% 25% 30% 18% 5% Tony Barron Dan Ford Russ Morman Pat Burrell LF 9% 22% 21% 24% 24% Graham Koonce Jay Buhner Paul Sorrento Andres Torres CF 21% 23% 29% 18% 9% Mitch Webster Mookie Wilson Devon White Nate Schierholtz RF 4% 10% 15% 25% 46% Bubba Crosby Steve Carter Marty Keough Miguel Tejada SS 11% 15% 29% 28% 17% Frank Malzone Cookie Rojas Cal Ripken Jose Guillen RF 2% 9% 13% 24% 51% Russ Morman Hubie Brooks Eric Karros Mark DeRosa LF 2% 7% 10% 19% 63% Eddie Williams Russ Morman Ernie Young Thomas Neal LF 2% 6% 11% 20% 61% Jason Hart John Roskos Justin Huber Francisco Peguero CF 4% 7% 18% 28% 43% Adam Jones Carlos Gomez Jerome Walton Freddy Sanchez 2B 7% 9% 15% 26% 43% Manny Trillo Mark Grudzielanek Jerry Adair Travis Ishikawa 1B 0% 3% 7% 26% 63% Doug Deeds Chris Wakeland Luis Jimenez Ryan Rohlinger SS 7% 16% 30% 29% 19% Luis Rivera Jason Alfaro Adam Heether Aaron Rowand CF 2% 7% 21% 34% 36% Jeffrey Leonard Pedro Swann Preston Wilson Mike Fontenot 2B 5% 6% 11% 24% 54% Dave Berg Steve Lyons Tom Foley Edgar Renteria SS 5% 10% 25% 32% 27% Brian Dallimore Ricky Gutierrez Luis Figueroa Brock Bond 2B 3% 7% 13% 27% 50% Ron Oester Bret Barberie Manuel Lee Eugenio Velez CF 3% 6% 14% 26% 52% Chris Duffy Rajai Davis Cecil Espy Conor Gillaspie 3B 2% 3% 7% 18% 70% Tom O’Malley Robinson Cano Aarom Baldiris Brett Pill 1B 0% 0% 1% 12% 87% Stephen Head Chan Perry Sean McGowan Tyler Graham CF 1% 1% 5% 18% 75% Willy Taveras Joey Gathright Charles Thomas Johnny Monell C 2% 5% 10% 26% 58% Andy Skeels Justin Knoedler Elvis Corporan Emmanuel Burriss SS 0% 2% 9% 24% 65% Carlos Mendoza Carlos Leon Edgar Caceres Charlie Culberson 2B 3% 2% 3% 9% 83% Matt Witkowski Luis Montanez Danny Klassen Joe Borchard RF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Dann Howitt Jeff Guiel Matthew Cepicky Eli Whiteside C 1% 3% 4% 14% 78% Paul Chiaffredo Frank Charles Paul Hoover Darren Ford CF 0% 1% 2% 9% 88% Tony Russell Wayne Lydon Donzell McDonald Brandon Crawford SS 2% 2% 5% 13% 78% Brian Bixler Tony Perezchica Mario Ramirez Juan Perez CF 1% 1% 2% 6% 92% Joe Mikulik Francisco Batista Chris Rahl Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Tim Lincecum SP 93% 2% 5% Ewell Blackwell Camilo Pascual Roger Clemens Sergio Romo RP 80% 19% 2% Eric Gagne Rollie Fingers Bruce Sutter Brian Wilson RP 79% 19% 2% Duane Ward Dick Radatz Bruce Sutter Matt Cain SP 84% 11% 5% Charlie Lea Ben McDonald Dustin Hermanson Jeremy Affeldt RP 41% 47% 13% George Sherrill Jason Christiansen Will Ohman Ramon Ramirez RP 43% 48% 9% Woody Williams Derrick Turnbow Jose Paniagua Jonathan Sanchez SP 69% 29% 2% Randy Johnson Sam McDowell Mark Langston Santiago Casilla RP 33% 48% 19% Todd Jones Ryan Dempster Cory Bailey Javier Lopez RP 34% 43% 23% Juan Agosto Scott Schoeneweis Arnold Earley Madison Bumgarner SP 42% 52% 7% Dave Fleming Mark Mulder Greg Hibbard Jose Casilla RP 20% 41% 39% Joe Hudson Sam Nahem Robert Tenenini Dan Runzler RP 16% 47% 37% Brian Fuentes Armando Almanza Dennys Reyes Guillermo Mota RP 21% 46% 33% Giovanni Carrara Joe Borowski Mike Fetters Barry Zito SP 25% 61% 15% Doug Davis Wilson Alvarez Brian Bohanon Osiris Matos RP 15% 50% 35% Tim Drummond Steve Schmoll Mark Rutherford Chris Ray RP 17% 42% 41% Jim Dougherty Miguel Saladin Chad Paronto Geno Espineli RP 15% 42% 43% Ryan Meaux Will McEnaney Pat Clements Alex Hinshaw RP 15% 43% 42% Ricky Pickett Brian Fuentes Armando Almanza Waldis Joaquin RP 7% 40% 53% Anthony Chavez Brian Bowles Tom Thurberg Tony Pena Jr. RP 7% 31% 62% Mike Bumstead Jake Robbins Andy Mitchell Brandon Medders RP 5% 29% 66% Pat Mahomes Marcus Gwyn Dave Stevens Todd Wellemeyer SP 6% 34% 60% Chan Ho Park Cal Eldred Jackson Todd Steve Edlefsen RP 3% 27% 69% Heathcliff Slocumb Marc Pisciotta Jason Gilfillan Horacio Ramirez SP 8% 29% 63% Stubby Overmire Tony Fossas Chris Haney Matt Yourkin RP 0% 17% 82% Jeff Granger Matt Perisho Trever Miller Rafael Cova RP 8% 22% 70% Bart Miadich Calvin Jones Johnny Ruffin Henry Sosa SP 1% 20% 79% Kelvin Jimenez Kelly Lifgren Tony Guerrero Clayton Tanner SP 0% 15% 85% Shawn Bryant Kris Detmers Mike Matthews Shane Loux SP 2% 15% 83% Joe Mays Pat Ahearne Brian Tollberg Matt Kinney SP 3% 14% 82% Jose Lima Mike Smithson Rick Helling Craig Whitaker RP 0% 4% 96% Bill Bene Johnny Humphries Jake Robbins Michael Main SP 0% 2% 98% Bryan Corey Jared Jensen Brian Adams Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Buster Posey 45% 38% 30% 16% 5% 13% 20% 0% Pablo Sandoval 42% 13% 28% 46% 7% 12% 12% 0% Aubrey Huff 14% 17% 20% 8% 4% 8% 10% 0% Brandon Belt 8% 25% 10% 6% 27% 1% 7% 10% Cody Ross 10% 2% 11% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% Pat Burrell 1% 12% 9% 0% 0% 4% 4% 0% Andres Torres 4% 3% 7% 0% 34% 1% 2% 3% Nate Schierholtz 15% 2% 7% 0% 8% 0% 2% 0% Miguel Tejada 11% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 2% 0% Jose Guillen 5% 1% 4% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% Mark DeRosa 4% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Thomas Neal 3% 3% 1% 16% 1% 1% 1% 0% Francisco Peguero 37% 1% 2% 0% 63% 0% 0% 45% Freddy Sanchez 19% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% Travis Ishikawa 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Rohlinger 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% Aaron Rowand 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Mike Fontenot 7% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Edgar Renteria 9% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Brock Bond 10% 19% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Eugenio Velez 6% 1% 0% 0% 18% 0% 0% 35% Conor Gillaspie 7% 1% 2% 4% 28% 1% 1% 0% Brett Pill 2% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tyler Graham 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 48% Johnny Monell 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Emmanuel Burriss 8% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 10% Charlie Culberson 1% 0% 3% 2% 8% 3% 0% 9% Joe Borchard 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Eli Whiteside 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Darren Ford 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 73% Brandon Crawford 0% 0% 2% 0% 4% 1% 1% 0% Juan Perez 0% 0% 1% 5% 25% 1% 0% 1% Ehire Adrianza 0% 0% 0% 1% 16% 0% 0% 17% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Tim Lincecum 84% 95% 96% 2% 97% Sergio Romo 73% 92% 93% 20% 81% Brian Wilson 74% 93% 98% 1% 93% Matt Cain 48% 93% 31% 2% 79% Jeremy Affeldt 33% 83% 64% 1% 84% Ramon Ramirez 35% 83% 34% 1% 71% Jonathan Sanchez 30% 86% 89% 0% 66% Santiago Casilla 25% 74% 44% 1% 83% Javier Lopez 27% 64% 2% 3% 87% Madison Bumgarner 12% 72% 1% 6% 75% Jose Casilla 20% 52% 3% 0% 91% Dan Runzler 16% 55% 79% 0% 73% Guillermo Mota 16% 59% 9% 2% 77% Barry Zito 4% 54% 7% 0% 71% Osiris Matos 11% 50% 10% 1% 70% Chris Ray 12% 50% 11% 1% 71% Geno Espineli 12% 50% 0% 16% 81% Alex Hinshaw 11% 50% 86% 0% 80% Waldis Joaquin 7% 40% 15% 0% 81% Tony Pena Jr. 7% 30% 3% 1% 67% Brandon Medders 3% 27% 10% 0% 52% Todd Wellemeyer 2% 16% 3% 0% 25% Steve Edlefsen 2% 20% 4% 0% 64% Horacio Ramirez 6% 30% 0% 24% 55% Matt Yourkin 0% 11% 1% 0% 48% Rafael Cova 8% 30% 58% 0% 64% Henry Sosa 0% 6% 0% 0% 24% Clayton Tanner 0% 2% 0% 0% 37% Shane Loux 0% 6% 1% 15% 45% Matt Kinney 1% 6% 3% 8% 10% Craig Whitaker 0% 3% 6% 0% 50% Michael Main 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins
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1. Frisco Cali Posted: January 04, 2011 at 03:45 PM (#3723027)I can't remember what happened in last year's ZiPS thread but Runzler had a crazy good 2009 in the minor leagues (0.78 ERA, 12.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) and I think people were a little too high on him. He's still a guy with a very live arm, but his problems throwing strikes are still there.
Everything looks pretty good, Dan. Thanks for posting these. I really like the Belt projection and the rotation looks solid -- injuries withstanding. A few reclamation SP arms would be nice. Maybe someone like Doug Davis or Justin Duchscherer would fit the bill.
That's awesome.
a couple of nitpicks...the projection for Torres is absurdly low...He might hit .252....if he had his appendix out every other month...he hit a solid .270 in '09 and was hitting 284/367/502 when his appendix started bothering him...(most notably by eliminating his ability to check his swing). I realize ZIPS still uses his pre '09 MLB numbers but whatever you think of his story those numbers say nothing about the hitter he is now.
And the "all our awesome starting pitchers stay healthy" plan does work when you have a collection of pitchers who have never been injured and an organization that has spent several million dollars researching how pitchers get injured and how to prevent it. Look at the track record of the Giants regarding pitcher injuries, it is the hidden strength of their organization.
Runzler dislocated his kneecap on his first MLB plate appearance and Madison Bumgarner had to finish for him. He struck out. That was...I shouldn't say amusing, but of all the things you'd expect to happen when a guy takes a swing, a dislocated kneecap isn't one of them.
I agree that the depth after that point (and Wellemeyer) isn't great, but if you're a team like the Twins, who have their top 3 starters projected at 109, 106 and 98, then 5 guys from 86 to 96, do you really have better depth?
You have more guys who won't completely crap the bed, but the Giants have 5 guys who are projected above average, none with any injury history. That seems like good depth to me. It's not that hard to find below average starters int he middle of the season.
I think that the Brandon Belt projection is a little rosy but he has played well at every stop thus far. I still think that it is high but I will hope for the best.
As for the starting pitching depth the system is top heavy with some interesting arms lower in the system. There is the possibility with the relief depth that one or two of those guys will try to be stretched out as long relief 6th starter types. That is the story for Runzler and it is the last area along with backup shortstop for the Giants to clear up for this season.
I am worried that the last report from Panda Camp II was that he had lost 30 lb's of fat in Dec but gained 20 lb's of muscle....that kind of BS was the story of panda camp I...and we saw how that turned out.
All I care about is whether or not he hits. If he hits .300 with power he can eat a cheeseburger at first base for all I care.
Curiously, Dan's first paragraph almost exactly mirrors the first two thoughts I had after looking over the numbers (offense looks a little better, decent minor league hitting depth, no sp depth beyond the first five). As Dan noted, they don't even have Wellemeyer anymore - their 6th starter (whoever it is) has a projected ERA+ in the mid 70s. This is the time to grab a guy to wait around in Fresno for when somebody gets hurt, given that somebody usually does (the Giants skill in this regard not notwithstanding), not midseason.
Probably.
Someone (not it!) will hold you to that...
I think the Giants should be happy if they get these projected performances from Posey, Sandoval, and Huff.
The streets of SF will be filled with naked dancers if Sandoval meets that projection.
Not that it will be that odd for San Francisco.
I mean, streets full of naked dancers is less freaky than Folsom Street Fair, and that happens every year.
At some point, fat is too fat. If his breasts get too big, it will really affect his swing.
Also, that extra weight will wear him down as he ages. And not really that old, either. As he gets into his mid-20's he won't be able to do what he did with that weight that he could do in his younger days.
Should help his HBP numbers, though.
And his love life.
He only has 1 season of MLB defensive numbers in center - that's the equivalent of about 2 months of offensive stats. He's certainly on the cusp of EX.
1) Torres cannot be projected. Probably not by a human accurately not to mention software. He's bizarre.
2) Depth clearly means 6th+ starter. Look at the Rockies projections for example. Even the Dodgers have 3 guys after their top 5 with 90-99 projected ERA+. Obviously the team is going to struggle if Lincecum or Cain -- or even Sanchez goes down. No matter who the 6th starter is... but it should be reasonable to add someone to the 40-man who can back up Bumgarner/Zito and not be wretched.
3) Zips is smart. Sandoval's projection is just 10 points of BA off of his career totals. I don't know what else to do with him, projection wise.
Not as optimistic as it was on Uribe!
I don't know if Sabean is done with his offseason or not, but it's not like guys who are capable of putting up a 5.00 ERA are all that hard to find. How much are the Twins going to demand in trade for Nick Blackburn? Or the Blue Jays for Shawn Hill? What do the Braves want for Derek Lowe? Anything more than freight?
There's almost always guys available. I want Sabean to pick one of those guys up, but it's not the end of the world if he didn't.
As for range, there's five categories: EX, VG, AV, FR, PO. VG and FR are (if memory serves) +/-7 runs from average - EX/PO are +/- 13 runs or so.
***
End of the world, tshipman? No - but what kind of plan is saying "aw, #### it"? Instead of paying additional transaction costs later (because the Twins want to keep Blackburn, or the Braves don't have a decent replacement for Lowe and they're in a pennant race, or Hill (a FA you could probably sign quite reasonably now) signed with KC and worked his way to a 3rd starter status and will cost some prospects ... you could sign someone now - not only to cover for major injury, but if someone goes on the 15-day DL and you need a two-week fill-in. Or two.
You know how in discussion of the replacement level, one of the themes that comes up is how that level isn't constant within the season - this is when you pick up those guys, when they're actually freely available.
Also, I'm in the "get another starter" camp. I don't care how durable (or good) the top 5 starters are; HBP, baserunning injury, appendicitis, bereavement, painful dental surgery... there are any number of reasons for a guy to miss time, and relying on wishcasting Runzler or Wellemeyer II, Shelling Boogaloo is not good planning.
At least Ryan Rohlinger doesn't appear to be a big dropoff from Tejada.
Thomas Neal looked like a future star last year at San Jose. I'm hoping he rebounds at Fresno and the prospect luster returns. Having a quality in-house replacement for Huff and Burrell (besides Belt) would be mighty nice. Peguero's projection is a nice surprise, insofar as he looks like an actual big-leaguer, if not a very good one, but that walk rate is really, really bad. He's going to have to step it up.
Belt!
These are always going to be more expensive in the off-season as several teams grab a handful of pitchers for open auditions for rotation spots...towards the end of spring training teams are going to start looking to trade or release guys who don't make their rotation...Giants can sign a couple of fringe guys or trade Ishikawa or Schierholtz for someone of slightly higher caliber...(especially if Belt makes the team)...but right now it is a sellers market...the end of spring training is when it becomes a buyers market...
Fair enough.
If you're willing to pay the 2/$30 remaining on his contract, I suspect the Braves would be happy to trade him to you this second for Sandoval's next lunch (which should meet their post-game buffet needs for the season).
These are always going to be more expensive in the off-season as several teams grab a handful of pitchers for open auditions for rotation spots...towards the end of spring training teams are going to start looking to trade or release guys who don't make their rotation...Giants can sign a couple of fringe guys or trade Ishikawa or Schierholtz for someone of slightly higher caliber...(especially if Belt makes the team)...but right now it is a sellers market...the end of spring training is when it becomes a buyers market...
Huh? These guys are available right now for an NRI and you think it's wise to wait to pick over the guys that the Royals didn't think it was worth stashing in AAA?
On the minor-leaguers as comps ... yep, looks like something must have gone wrong. Koonce didn't play in the minors after 32, Dallimore after 31 but they are the best age-based comps for Burrell (34) and Renteria (34)?
By and large what is available for NRI invites now is lesser quality than what will be available at the end of March, right now the Giants would be competing against teams that are offering a shot at the rotation (and a MLB paycheck). And interesting that you mention the Royals, they are precisely the kind of team that may run out of space on their 40 man for a usable 6th starter, they have a stocked minor league organization and may discard pitchers that don't fit into their plans. By definition a 6th starter will usually be on the fence of being worth a 40 man spot.
In 2010 the top 6 starters for Colorado had a 120 ERA+, for SF, 119 (albeit in 100 more IP).
If you add in the 16 replacement level starts from Rogers and Smith then it's 107 to 119 in favor of SF.
Would you prefer Cook/Francis/de la Rosa or Zito/Bumgarner?
In any case, it must be pretty close, even without weighting by the slightly bogus IP projections because Cain is projected to out pitch Chacin.
The offenses look very comparable as well... although the Rockies ironically have a black hole at 1B.
It makes me wonder what the HBT projection machine is smoking to predict the Giants at 96 wins and Colorado at 83... (and LA at 90)
My zips eyeballs put them at about 85/85/85 without considering defense (too lazy to compare and can't convert DBM stats to runs/wins anyway... projected ERA+ for players on roughly the same team should cover this anyway).
The CAIRO projections put the NL West at 85/84/83 (Rockies Giants Dodgers).
I still refuse to pay ESPN insider to see Szym's simulations! Curse you Dan! (And good luck)
Just the quickie comparison of their 4 most recent seasons, neutral park 2010, weighted to recent play (there is an error, I still project Renteria as if he were 33 as that's what the Miami Herald found his actual age to be a year younger than the reported one) counting stats per 600 PA:
Renteria, 2007-2010, 269/324/365, 24 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 BB, 89 K, 4.4 speed
Dallimore, 2002-2005, 270/326/362, 25 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 44 B, 76 K, 4.5 speed
Burrell, 2007-2010, 238/344/440, 26 2B, 1 3B, 25 HR, 85 BB, 147 K, 1.9 speed
Koonce, 2004-2007, 239/338/444, 27 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 76 BB, 150 K, 2.3 speed
Both Dallimore and Koonce were both a year younger than Renteria and Burrell, but ZiPS doesn't get too excited about a single year.
Lowe is a perfectly fine contract, and I doubt he will be dumped by the Braves. Kawakami, on the other hand, is your perfect 4-5 pitcher, who can be had for free. Its a pity, he hasn't really pitched badly, but was shunted off by Bobby, and now is stuck in limbo.
Especially given his horrendous K/BB rates (projected). Someone else calculated that his Zips line comes out to a .350 BABIP. Which seems, uh, high.
Does anybody else find this kind of funny? Two very good, moderate-peak pitchers, and Roger ####### Clemens?
I am curious, how does ZiPS know he is really fast? Is there a manual input to the system?
Because it must be hard differentiating between a person who has been lucky, and a person who is fast ( and thus creating some of the luck ). Esp since I am assuming minor league data is fairly patchy.
The 5 recent players above and below Peguero are Podsednik, Knoblauch, Samuel, Espy, Devon White, Butler, Raines, Torres, and Hatcher (in their primes).
For the record, I have Deion Sanders 1989-1992 and Jose Reyes 2004-2006 as the fastest live-ball players. The slowest (that anyone would have heard of) are Ernie Lombardi 1944-1945, Frank Thomas 2006-2007 and Gus Triandos 1960-1963.
However, .350 BABIP with a .400 SLG is basically Ichiro-lite. The only other comparable hitters in 2010 were Brett Gardner and Scott Podsednik... but even they were in the .340 BABIP range.
For the record, I have Deion Sanders 1989-1992 and Jose Reyes 2004-2006 as the fastest live-ball players. The slowest (that anyone would have heard of) are Ernie Lombardi 1944-1945, Frank Thomas 2006-2007 and Gus Triandos 1960-1963.
Thanks for the info.
btw SYSTEM FAIL! No Jason Philips or Bengie Molina on it :)
Don't forget everyone's favorite crazy BABIP anomaly, Austin Jackson.
Molina is the slowest for 2007-2010 though. Carlos Gomez the fastest.
Pat Burrell has 285 career home runs. If he hits his ZiPS projection he'll pass Tim Salmon (299 home runs) and Rogers Hornsby (301) he'll have the most career home runs by a guy who never made an All-Star team. Matt Stairs with 265 (#5, after Eric Karros) is the only other active guy in the top 10. Fellow Giant Aubrey Huff (229) is #14 and Eric Chavez (230) is tied with Rob Deer for #12. So two current Giants, and 2 guys from the Moneyball A's are the active leaders. And the next active guy at #17 is Jose Guillen, once an Athletic and a Giant. Russ Branyan is the first active guy to have not played in the Bay Area.
It's not surprising to find a list like this dominated by Billy Beane and Brian Sabean creatures, but it's still interesting.
I was in the Castro last weekend and this was pretty much going on, in the middle of the afternoon, no less. I don't think it had anything to do with Sandoval though.
I should pay better attention to NPB. Holy shitballs, Kroon got the hang of pitching in Japan. He used to be worse at finding home plate than Jim Leyritz is at finding the Designated Driver tent.
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