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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, January 12, 20112011 ZiPS Projections - Seattle MarinersThat was…interesting.
Last year’s edition of the Mariners got quite a bit of hype for their defense and ZiPS liked the M’s to the tune of mid-80s wins in February (down to 82 wins by the opening day roster without Garko and Bedard’s playing time expectation reduced).
However, 82 wins turned out to be optimistic as the 2010 M’s would have needed a couple more months to get to that figure. While the offense was always the biggest concern, nobody really expected the offense to be quite as bad as it turned out to be. You could look at that lineup and think “OK, they need some real middle of the order guys” but if you say that you saw all of Kotchman, Figgins, Lopez, and Bradley spending most of the season struggling to keep their OPS above .600, you’re telling a fib.
Back in August, I looked at the Marcels for all offenses over the last 40 years and found the M’s as the 4th most underperforming, scoring just 73% of expected runs, behind only the 1978 A’s, the 1981 Blue Jays, and the 1988 Orioles. The offense should bounce back (the rest of the top 10 underperformers gained 0.6 r/g the next season on average), but it won’t be good and with Cliff Lee gone, the Bedard expectations even lower, and no hope of getting the benefit of a Rowland-Smith rebound (if he does, it’ll be the Astros that get the benefit), the team won’t have the horses to contend.
My guess now would be that the team dead cat bounces back up to 70 wins, but there’s little chance of .500 this time around. too cute - the Lopez-Figgins swap was too clever by half and Figgins went from being a Gold Glove-caliber 3B to a lousy 2B.
Side note: I’m mostly over a nasty case of the flu, so ZiPS should start to return to their previous pace of posting and the team rundowns should be done first week of February (then comes the cleanup and various new projections)
Next up: Angels
Batting Projections Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+ Russell Branyan L 1B 35 .235 .330 .480 97 319 46 75 15 0 21 49 42 114 2 0 119 Ichiro Suzuki L RF 37 .299 .340 .391 145 619 83 185 25 4 8 41 37 71 32 8 100 Jack Cust L DH 32 .229 .366 .404 137 445 70 102 18 0 20 64 95 182 2 2 111 Milton Bradley B LF 33 .241 .354 .393 90 295 43 71 13 1 10 35 47 84 5 2 105 Casey Kotchman L 1B 28 .259 .326 .390 134 441 50 114 26 1 10 58 41 51 1 1 96 Franklin GutierrezR CF 28 .253 .310 .392 151 530 75 134 25 2 15 62 43 126 17 4 91 Mike Carp L 1B 25 .241 .316 .392 143 528 68 127 24 1 18 62 53 130 1 2 93 Justin Smoak L 1B 24 .228 .333 .367 146 526 64 120 25 0 16 61 83 144 1 0 92 Chone Figgins B 3B 33 .263 .353 .322 141 537 74 141 20 3 2 34 75 103 35 15 87 Dustin Ackley L 2B 23 .244 .329 .356 155 599 98 146 30 8 7 53 72 100 9 3 88 Kyle Seager L 2B 23 .268 .328 .364 123 514 79 138 24 2 7 60 45 95 9 10 90 Alex Liddi R 3B 22 .244 .303 .384 156 606 86 148 34 6 13 86 47 196 7 7 87 Brad Nelson L 1B 28 .232 .308 .380 119 410 50 95 20 1 13 48 45 89 4 4 88 Adam Kennedy L 2B 35 .251 .316 .337 123 383 44 96 17 2 4 34 34 58 12 3 79 Luis Rodriguez B SS 31 .259 .320 .355 93 290 31 75 11 1 5 26 27 31 2 3 85 Michael Saunders L LF 24 .231 .303 .368 130 429 62 99 17 3 12 44 43 122 10 5 83 Jack Wilson R SS 33 .258 .299 .349 94 318 33 82 18 1 3 29 17 43 3 3 77 Ryan Langerhans L LF 31 .207 .317 .338 98 237 36 49 11 1 6 19 38 86 7 3 80 Tug Hulett L 2B 28 .222 .307 .348 115 405 56 90 23 2 8 38 49 103 7 4 79 Johermyn Chavez R RF 22 .239 .297 .371 156 620 80 148 25 6 15 66 42 192 6 10 82 Greg Halman R CF 23 .207 .265 .404 139 527 81 109 20 3 26 74 35 227 13 7 80 Matt Tuiasosopo R 3B 25 .222 .305 .344 110 392 60 87 19 1 9 42 43 124 3 2 78 Matt Mangini L 3B 25 .238 .284 .355 136 501 59 119 20 3 11 55 28 139 4 1 74 Adam Moore R C 27 .243 .290 .349 117 436 45 106 20 1 8 43 24 103 1 1 74 Josh Bard B C 33 .227 .292 .347 78 242 19 55 14 0 5 25 23 49 0 0 75 Miguel Olivo R C 32 .220 .264 .382 106 372 41 82 15 3 13 51 20 122 6 3 75 Brendan Ryan R SS 29 .243 .298 .323 134 415 54 101 18 3 3 30 29 66 12 5 70 Sean Kazmar R SS 26 .239 .289 .328 138 494 60 118 22 2 6 50 34 97 7 2 69 Josh Wilson R SS 30 .235 .286 .328 120 387 35 91 20 2 4 33 19 79 7 2 68 Chris Gimenez R C 28 .214 .295 .332 93 304 35 65 13 1 7 29 34 90 2 1 73 Jake Shaffer L LF 23 .256 .294 .351 128 476 52 122 24 3 5 56 22 106 5 12 76 Eliezer Alfonzo R C 32 .226 .255 .366 67 235 22 53 10 1 7 26 7 70 0 1 68 Carlos Triunfel R SS 21 .245 .275 .323 123 465 57 114 14 2 6 63 15 67 9 9 63 Carlos Peguero L LF 24 .204 .261 .345 137 539 70 110 19 6 15 63 37 233 5 8 65 Chris Woodward R SS 35 .220 .277 .283 95 318 34 70 12 1 2 23 24 64 2 1 54 Defensive Projections Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Russell Branyan AV/152 FR/103 Ichiro Suzuki AV/88 EX/93 Jack Cust PO/141 PO/141 Milton Bradley FR/136 FR/136 Casey Kotchman AV/32 Franklin Gutierrez VG/96 EX/91 VG/96 Mike Carp FR/136 FR/103 Justin Smoak AV/113 Chone Figgins FR/148 VG/67 Dustin Ackley FR/142 Kyle Seager AV/126 VG/114 FR/131 Alex Liddi AV/127 FR/117 Brad Nelson AV/123 PO/115 FR/105 FR/105 Adam Kennedy AV/126 VG/129 AV/125 AV/111 Luis Rodriguez FR/113 AV/119 PO/95 Michael Saunders VG/128 AV/130 VG/128 Jack Wilson VG/84 Ryan Langerhans AV/120 VG/67 PO/102 AV/127 Tug Hulett AV/82 FR/111 PO/90 VG/110 VG/110 Johermyn Chavez FR/150 FR/150 Greg Halman AV/129 AV/146 AV/129 Matt Tuiasosopo AV/122 AV/120 FR/135 FR/120 FR/122 Matt Mangini AV/144 AV/141 Adam Moore FR Josh Bard FR Miguel Olivo VG Brendan Ryan AV/109 AV/116 EX/78 AV/111 AV/111 Sean Kazmar AV/114 FR/112 Josh Wilson AV/124 AV/122 AV/118 AV/130 Chris Gimenez AV AV/110 FR/124 AV/96 FR/116 Jake Shaffer AV/66 PO/108 Eliezer Alfonzo AV FR/114 Carlos Triunfel AV/130 FR/159 Carlos Peguero FR/170 FR/160 FR/211 Chris Woodward VG/112 AV/125 VG/132 AV/142 AV/111 Pitching Projections - Starters Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ Felix Hernandez R 25 2.75 17 7 33 33 236.0 196 72 17 71 231 148 Erik Bedard L 32 3.58 3 2 10 10 55.3 49 22 6 23 54 114 Michael Pineda R 22 4.12 6 6 22 20 107.0 105 49 12 38 83 99 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96 Jason Vargas L 28 4.24 9 10 31 27 165.7 171 78 19 48 105 96 Yusmeiro Petit R 26 4.55 4 6 26 13 83.0 83 42 13 26 71 89 Anthony Vasquez L 24 4.61 7 8 20 18 113.3 128 58 12 30 57 88 Doug Fister R 27 4.64 8 11 30 26 155.3 179 80 17 36 89 88 Garrett Olson L 27 4.75 6 8 38 16 110.0 111 58 13 52 81 86 Chaz Roe R 24 4.75 7 11 25 25 147.7 164 78 15 58 89 85 Blake Beavan R 22 4.76 9 12 28 28 162.7 193 86 17 35 70 85 Luke French L 25 4.77 8 12 28 25 158.3 177 84 18 55 80 85 Tom Wilhelmsen R 27 4.97 3 5 10 9 50.7 56 28 5 26 28 82 Chris Seddon L 27 5.05 6 10 27 19 119.3 128 67 16 56 72 80 Ian Snell R 29 5.11 6 10 27 25 135.7 146 77 16 73 104 80 David Pauley R 27 5.18 7 11 29 26 144.3 169 83 17 54 79 79 Charlie Haeger R 27 5.25 7 12 27 23 132.0 135 77 15 91 92 77 Fabio Castro L 26 5.40 5 9 29 19 115.0 131 69 12 64 75 75 Yoervis Medina R 22 5.54 4 7 15 15 76.3 87 47 10 41 53 73 Mauricio Robles L 22 5.63 6 12 27 26 124.7 127 78 18 93 105 72 Andrew Baldwin R 28 5.73 5 11 31 18 125.7 156 80 19 44 64 71 Dan Cortes R 24 5.73 5 10 32 20 103.7 111 66 10 87 76 71 Steve Bray R 30 6.31 4 11 31 16 108.3 138 76 20 43 50 64 Pitching Statistics - Relievers Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+ David Aardsma R 29 3.50 4 3 56 0 54.0 43 21 5 29 60 116 LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108 Brandon League R 28 3.82 6 5 64 0 73.0 69 31 7 25 61 106 Josh Lueke R 27 4.00 3 3 35 0 45.0 44 20 4 17 40 102 Shawn Kelley R 27 4.17 3 3 36 0 41.0 39 19 5 17 38 97 Denny Bautista R 30 4.21 3 4 50 0 57.7 51 27 5 40 61 96 Cesar Jimenez L 26 4.30 1 1 20 1 23.0 23 11 2 9 19 94 Chris Smith R 30 4.41 3 3 55 1 67.3 67 33 9 25 56 92 Mark Worrell R 28 4.41 3 3 42 0 51.0 50 25 5 25 45 92 Joe Nelson R 36 4.44 2 3 44 0 46.7 44 23 5 29 43 92 Jamey Wright R 36 4.46 3 4 54 0 66.7 68 33 6 33 47 91 Royce Ring L 30 4.58 2 2 50 0 37.3 39 19 4 16 26 89 Steven Shell R 28 4.72 3 4 32 7 74.3 80 39 9 28 49 86 Josh Fields R 25 4.91 1 2 26 0 29.3 29 16 3 22 23 83 Anthony Varvaro R 26 4.91 2 3 49 0 58.7 55 32 5 50 51 83 Robert Rohrbaugh L 27 4.95 3 4 22 7 67.3 79 37 7 20 39 82 Levale Speigner R 30 5.01 4 6 47 0 64.7 75 36 7 25 33 81 Edward Paredes L 24 5.19 3 5 46 1 60.7 66 35 6 38 38 78 Billy Traber L 31 5.36 2 3 28 2 40.3 47 24 5 16 19 76 Scott Patterson R 32 5.36 1 3 40 0 42.0 44 25 6 23 35 76 Extrapolated Career Statistics Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ Ichiro Suzuki .322 .365 .418 2048 8762 1297 2818 333 84 114 685 558 894 468 112 Adam Kennedy .272 .327 .380 1718 5637 704 1532 288 43 78 579 415 842 191 87 Chone Figgins .278 .354 .359 1545 5916 882 1647 233 66 38 483 702 1031 421 93 Franklin Gutierrez .254 .309 .389 1532 5262 711 1336 252 22 138 591 409 1149 143 89 Jack Wilson .265 .306 .366 1531 5557 631 1471 283 37 69 495 306 687 46 77 Russell Branyan .232 .322 .474 1410 4226 574 980 202 8 269 647 535 1519 21 111 Milton Bradley .263 .358 .425 1374 4702 690 1236 247 20 159 602 650 1084 102 109 Casey Kotchman .255 .322 .386 1289 4216 463 1077 245 11 95 552 387 448 15 91 Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ Felix Hernandez 240 142 0 3.21 538 539 3722 3269 1329 374 1129 3423 128 ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3 Russell Branyan 1B 22% 29% 20% 20% 10% Willie McCovey Jose Canseco Tony Clark Ichiro Suzuki RF 10% 21% 20% 23% 25% Paul Waner Sam Rice Al Bumbry Jack Cust DH 7% 21% 21% 30% 21% Jim Gentile Bernie Carbo Carlos Pena Milton Bradley LF 6% 19% 21% 27% 28% Dwayne Murphy Mark Whiten Benny Agbayani Casey Kotchman 1B 1% 4% 10% 34% 51% Gary Burnham Jose Tolentino Andre David Franklin GutierrezCF 9% 15% 29% 29% 18% Chad Mottola Marlon Byrd Jeffrey Fiorentino Mike Carp 1B 1% 4% 8% 27% 60% Brant Colamarino Jim Bonnici Kevin Barker Justin Smoak 1B 1% 5% 9% 28% 56% Kevin Barker Jose Birriel Steve Cox Chone Figgins 3B 3% 10% 16% 24% 47% Omar Vizquel Mark McLemore Bobby Adams Dustin Ackley 2B 10% 10% 17% 27% 36% Orlando Hudson Russ Adams William Suero Kyle Seager 2B 5% 6% 11% 22% 56% Jeff Treadway Aaron Hill Ernest Riles Alex Liddi 3B 2% 5% 12% 22% 59% B.J. Upton Sibby Sisti Mathew Gamel Brad Nelson 1B 0% 2% 4% 17% 76% Frank Jacobs Andy Barkett George Canale Adam Kennedy 2B 4% 6% 11% 23% 55% Todd Haney Jim Gantner Jerry Lumpe Luis Rodriguez SS 5% 9% 22% 31% 33% Nelson Norman Mark Lemke Larry Brown Michael Saunders LF 1% 4% 6% 13% 77% Dan Ortmeier Alonzo Powell Craig Brooks Jack Wilson SS 2% 4% 14% 28% 52% Garth Iorg Rafael Ramirez Alvaro Espinoza Ryan Langerhans LF 1% 2% 3% 8% 87% David Dellucci Junior Spivey Damon Mashore Tug Hulett 2B 2% 3% 7% 19% 70% Tony Schrager Kevin Melillo Edgar Gonzalez Johermyn Chavez RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 90% Pedro Munoz George Hinshaw Vernon Thomas Greg Halman CF 2% 5% 13% 23% 57% Glenallen Hill Chad Hermansen Gerald Williams Matt Tuiasosopo 3B 0% 2% 5% 15% 77% Matt Craig Ryan Roberts Scott Moore Matt Mangini 3B 0% 2% 4% 12% 82% George Hinshaw Jeff Moronko Bobby Smith Adam Moore C 1% 4% 11% 31% 53% Geronimo Gil Dan Wilson Damian Miller Josh Bard C 1% 6% 10% 25% 58% Keith McDonald George Mitterwald Nelson Santovenia Miguel Olivo C 3% 12% 20% 32% 34% Jim Hegan Jason LaRue Mike Heath Brendan Ryan SS 1% 3% 10% 24% 61% Rusty Hamric Derek Wathan Jesse Garcia Sean Kazmar SS 2% 3% 10% 26% 59% Joey Aragon Kevin Polcovich Wilson Delgado Josh Wilson SS 0% 2% 9% 22% 67% Juan Castro Kevin Baez Kevin Polcovich Chris Gimenez C 2% 6% 11% 29% 53% B.J. Waszgis Danny Ardoin Ray Stephens Jake Shaffer LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Garret Anderson Andre Ethier Dave Leeper Eliezer Alfonzo C 1% 2% 5% 17% 75% George Mitterwald Nelson Santovenia Robert Machado Carlos Triunfel SS 2% 2% 4% 8% 83% Al Pedrique Gus Polidor Jim Scranton Carlos Peguero LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Ralph Bryant Dennis Hood Brad Snyder Chris Woodward SS 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Willy Miranda Jeff Branson Dal Maxvill Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3 Felix Hernandez SP 90% 5% 5% Roger Clemens Mike Witt Bert Blyleven David Aardsma RP 40% 43% 17% Ryne Duren Juan Cruz Calvin Schiraldi Erik Bedard SP 54% 35% 11% Mark Langston Ted Lilly Chuck Finley Brandon League RP 23% 54% 23% Rich Bordi Gene Nelson Robbie Crabtree Josh Lueke RP 26% 44% 30% Bert Roberge Jose Alvarez Will Cunnane Michael Pineda SP 32% 51% 17% Julio Valera Salomon Torres David Nied Shawn Kelley RP 16% 43% 41% Pete Ladd Justin Speier Keith Atherton Denny Bautista RP 11% 46% 43% Mark Clear John D’Acquisto Colter Bean Jason Vargas SP 19% 58% 23% Alfonso Pulido Mike Maroth Kirk Rueter Cesar Jimenez RP 27% 37% 36% Mike Munoz Mark Mimbs Blake McGinley Chris Smith RP 6% 34% 60% Doug Jones Willie Fraser Rich Bordi Mark Worrell RP 10% 42% 48% Jorge Vasquez Roberto Giron Marino Salas Joe Nelson RP 8% 37% 55% Rich DeLucia Rudy Seanez Ryne Duren Jamey Wright RP 10% 32% 58% Don Aase Greg Minton Ben Weber Yusmeiro Petit SP 17% 43% 41% Jose Melendez Andrew Good Mike Gardiner Royce Ring RP 11% 31% 57% Javier Lopez Will Brunson Todd Rizzo Anthony Vasquez SP 11% 47% 41% Bobby Livingston Blaine Beatty Derek Lilliquist Doug Fister SP 8% 50% 42% Josh Towers Greg Wooten Heath Totten Steven Shell RP 2% 28% 70% Donn Pall Royal Clayton Eric Moody Garrett Olson SP 1% 27% 72% Scott Eyre John O’Donoghue Rafael Roque Chaz Roe SP 4% 44% 53% Joe Housey Josh Fogg Michael Macdonald Blake Beavan SP 3% 43% 54% Carlos Silva Josh Towers Dave Geeve Luke French SP 4% 41% 55% Jeff Ballard Alfred Mathes Derrin Ebert Josh Fields RP 8% 29% 63% Heathcliff Slocumb Jeff Smith Marc Pisciotta Anthony Varvaro RP 2% 25% 72% Josh Banks Jeff Smith Andres Berumen Robert Rohrbaugh RP 2% 25% 73% Chris Key Cliff Young Lee Guetterman Tom Wilhelmsen SP 8% 33% 58% Sean White Brett Laxton Jeff Fulchino Levale Speigner RP 3% 17% 81% Carl Willis Bryan Corey Eric Moody Chris Seddon SP 1% 25% 74% Tom Drees Justin Hampson Ed Hodge Ian Snell SP 1% 21% 77% Adrian Hernandez Greg Keagle Kip Wells David Pauley SP 1% 22% 78% Don August Pat Ahearne Cameron Reimers Edward Paredes RP 1% 12% 87% Brian Adams Mike Venafro Jose Cano Charlie Haeger SP 1% 15% 85% Matt DeSalvo Mike Smith Derrick Lewis Billy Traber RP 3% 18% 78% Mark Thurmond Stubby Overmire Rusty Gerhardt Scott Patterson RP 3% 19% 78% Bob Long Mike Jeffcoat Darwin Cubillan Fabio Castro SP 0% 15% 85% Ben Fritz Bruce Ruffin Phil Coke Yoervis Medina SP 1% 14% 84% Matt Achilles Brian Rogers Kevin Hart Mauricio Robles SP 0% 9% 91% Paul Spoljaric Jeff Taylor Corey Lee Andrew Baldwin SP 0% 5% 95% Felipe Lira Tim McClaskey Dave Ford Dan Cortes SP 1% 6% 93% Jason Phillips Mike Lumley Brian Wood Steve Bray SP 0% 2% 98% Tim McClaskey Jason Roach Brandon Emanuel Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB Russell Branyan 2% 9% 35% 0% 0% 10% 16% 0% Ichiro Suzuki 48% 9% 2% 1% 4% 1% 2% 51% Jack Cust 0% 33% 4% 0% 0% 10% 6% 0% Milton Bradley 2% 24% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% Casey Kotchman 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Franklin Gutierrez 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 5% Mike Carp 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% Justin Smoak 0% 7% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% Chone Figgins 7% 20% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 63% Dustin Ackley 1% 4% 1% 4% 32% 1% 1% 0% Kyle Seager 10% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% Alex Liddi 1% 1% 2% 12% 19% 2% 1% 0% Brad Nelson 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Adam Kennedy 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% Luis Rodriguez 8% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% Michael Saunders 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Jack Wilson 7% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Ryan Langerhans 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Tug Hulett 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Johermyn Chavez 0% 0% 0% 1% 13% 4% 0% 0% Greg Halman 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 31% 0% 2% Matt Tuiasosopo 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Matt Mangini 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% Adam Moore 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Josh Bard 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Miguel Olivo 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% Brendan Ryan 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% Sean Kazmar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Josh Wilson 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Chris Gimenez 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Jake Shaffer 3% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Eliezer Alfonzo 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Carlos Triunfel 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% Carlos Peguero 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 1% 0% 0% Chris Woodward 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1 Felix Hernandez 84% 93% 79% 5% 96% David Aardsma 32% 78% 91% 0% 78% Erik Bedard 31% 75% 69% 2% 66% Brandon League 18% 71% 26% 4% 74% Josh Lueke 18% 62% 44% 4% 80% Michael Pineda 7% 52% 14% 2% 62% Shawn Kelley 16% 50% 59% 3% 60% Denny Bautista 11% 49% 88% 0% 76% Jason Vargas 3% 42% 1% 11% 50% Cesar Jimenez 27% 51% 23% 9% 78% Chris Smith 4% 34% 27% 2% 30% Mark Worrell 7% 44% 42% 0% 73% Joe Nelson 8% 37% 58% 0% 60% Jamey Wright 8% 36% 7% 0% 74% Yusmeiro Petit 3% 31% 34% 7% 18% Royce Ring 11% 33% 7% 2% 71% Anthony Vasquez 3% 26% 0% 25% 70% Doug Fister 2% 21% 0% 47% 55% Steven Shell 1% 20% 1% 2% 42% Garrett Olson 1% 17% 5% 0% 45% Chaz Roe 0% 15% 0% 0% 64% Blake Beavan 0% 15% 0% 61% 61% Luke French 1% 12% 0% 2% 53% Josh Fields 8% 27% 21% 0% 74% Anthony Varvaro 1% 16% 39% 0% 86% Robert Rohrbaugh 1% 17% 0% 18% 68% Tom Wilhelmsen 2% 21% 1% 0% 81% Levale Speigner 2% 15% 0% 2% 60% Chris Seddon 0% 7% 0% 0% 29% Ian Snell 0% 5% 8% 0% 48% David Pauley 0% 4% 0% 0% 45% Edward Paredes 1% 9% 1% 0% 75% Charlie Haeger 0% 3% 2% 0% 59% Billy Traber 3% 16% 0% 6% 58% Scott Patterson 2% 16% 29% 0% 39% Fabio Castro 0% 3% 0% 0% 66% Yoervis Medina 0% 4% 2% 0% 46% Mauricio Robles 0% 1% 29% 0% 22% Andrew Baldwin 0% 1% 0% 1% 21% Dan Cortes 0% 2% 5% 0% 75% Steve Bray 0% 1% 0% 2% 8% All figures in % based on projection playing time Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.2011 Projections Archive Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Oakland A’s Texas Rangers Florida Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Washington Nationals Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Atlanta Braves Houston Astros St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants
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1. Juan V Posted: January 12, 2011 at 05:32 PM (#3728816)Speaking of Tenbrink: he mashed in A+ like Seager, and also put up 381/427 OBP/SLG in AA in 72 games. He could be a cup of coffee type in September, the new Michael Saunders. He might be worth considering on a future round of projections . . .
Glad you're getting well, Dan.
ZiPS has no sense of irony
Is Felix the best starter projection so far? Ever?
Not their likely lineup, but they might open with:
Olivo (VG arm), Smoak (AV), 2b, Figgins (VG), Wilson/Ryan (VG/EX), Saunders (VG), Gutierrez (EX), Suzuki (EX). That's a mighty spicy meatball, rangewise.
Oh, and: admit it - you bumped Ichiro a few points down from .304 or something to get page hits.... confess! confess!
The sad think is if Ackley, Smoak, Saunders and Pineda all break out to above average players immediately, this is still a terrible team.
They desperately need Figgins to have a scorching first half so maybe they can move him at the deadline.
They should really consider trading Ichiro, but business/fan considerations probably prevent that. Hard to believe he'll have much left when this team is ready to contend again (2013?).
Actually, Ichiro isn't one of the ZiPS problems (like Gryboski and Buehrle used to be):'
Year- ZiPS-------- Actual----
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465
2010 325/368/414 315/359/394
Try to avoid drinking the kool aid.
Dammit, Walt. That is TOO GOOD.
ZiPS has no sense of irony
Dammit, Walt. That is TOO GOOD.
Concur. Dan you really should've cooked those numbers somehow.
Thanks! For now on, I'm getting a flu shot. I never have before as my immune system is generally good at kicking the ass of these types of things.
In retrospect, I should have taken it more seriously than simply taking a lot of cough medicine and sleeping a lot (my temperature was above 102 for 3 days straight and nothing brought it down), but I'm OK now except for general weakness and lots of gross stuff leaving my head.
Not sure if it's a sign of aging (I turn 33 in June, so I'm not that old) or if this was just a particularly nasty bug, but I'm going to do my best to avoid a repeat next winter.
Nonetheless, Ichiro has been +52 against the projections over the last 5 years-in each of those years ZIPs has consistently projected him to hit below his career average, which has been only one point less than his career mark in those years (.331 to .330). I'll easily take the over on the .299.
GET A PROJECTION (MORANS)
GO USA
Ubaldo got a 153 ERA+ Projection this year. I imagine Johan's 2.95 Projection for the 2007 Twins resulted in an even higher ERA+, but it wasn't listed back then. I'd guess there were a few more that broke the 150, 160 mark.
Dan - forget the flu shot, it doesn't work at all. Start taking 3000 IU of Vit. D everyday, in September, and keep it up til spring and you'll be fine.
[this was not a hijack attempt]
So, Jamey Wright has three comps listed here and all are former Angel relievers. Creepy....
Wow, Felix's #2 comp is a favorite from my youth: Mike Witt.
It's fun rifling through the comp lists....
Put it in the Forums.
So redo this!
This is purely anecdotal, but every year I've taken a flu shot, I've gotten the flu, and every year where I didn't, I didn't.
Dan S. -- patient zero in the internet based flu. I caught it too!
Steve Blass and Mackey Sasser are both doing fine.
Zips gives him generally 50 points of ISO OBP, and that seems pretty normal for him, although eyeballing it it looks like when his BA is REALLY high his BB rate goes down a bit. I don't know if this is typical of guys who can hit >.350... so whatever.
his ISO SLG projections are essentally 90 90 100 100 80 80 90 (with the bump back for his awesome 2009). While Ichiro's real numbers have a much higher variance, they seem to be centered around 100 or so.
That leaves his BA and we know that has a pretty high variance.
Zips has been -50, +40, 0, -40, +10, -50, +10.
I don't know what you can say about that except it's obviously hard to predict batting average (which in RL Ichiros has gone between .300 and .370).
So I don't see any pattern of misprediction here at all.
Bringing up the 2011 forecast - note that Ichiro actually didn't quite make his 2010 Zips numbers (although I am sure that is well within margin of error), so that cannot help his projection in his age 37 year.
Is .299 a reasonable projection? Would forecasting him to hit .315 again (or even higher) be *more* rational? He's 37. I think "zero drop in BA" would be highly optimistic considering that even Ichiro isn't immortal.
If we assume that a fully healthy and motivated 37 year old Ichiro would hit about .320, then just mixing in some nagging injury is probably enough to drop that 20 points or so in aggregate.
One of these days - whether he's 37 or 38 or 41 he's going to pull a hammy bad during the season and his BA will drop - Zips is just making placing some bet that he falls off some this year.
This, by the way, is my theory on why fans (of the team, but also of baseball) uniformly overpredict players. They try to predict mode or true talent level and don't adequatly weight the chance of injury/age related decline. (They also often forget to regress towards the mean and assume that any steps forward or backwards in stats are more permanent talent changes than they probably are... but these numbers seem to balance out high/low)
Just a theory.
Near-age comps.
Goes to thread... Yup, not seeing a lot of amusing comments there
Year------ ZiPS-------- Actual------ PECOTA
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455 309/351/423
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436 311/355/415
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416 308/343/406
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431 310/354/398
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386 304/346/384
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465 292/338/359
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